Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
4. Democratization
How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2008 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report. Please add your suggestions in the space provided after each paragraph and feel free to contact us with any questions.

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General Description

Elements of global governance such as ISOs, international treaties, multilateral organizations, and self-organizing bodies on the Internet, along with the evolution of business systems and ICT, are augmenting governments’ democratic emergence. Although the perception and implementation of democracy differ globally, it is generally accepted that democracy is a relationship between a responsible citizenry and a responsive government that encourages participation in the political process and guarantees basic rights. Since democracies tend not to fight each other and since humanitarian crises are far more likely under authoritarian regimes than democratic ones, the trend toward democracy should lead to a more peaceful future. Aging populations are increasing and their countries tend to maintain democratic gains more than countries with younger populations do. However, democracy and freedom declined over the last two years in one-fifth of the world’s countries, according to Freedom House. Four times as many countries showed declines during 2007 as improved, and press freedom continued a six-year negative trend across the world, with increased intimidation of journalists and increasing control of media in the hands of a few in business or government.

The longer-term trend is positive: the number of free countries grew from 43 to 90 over the past 30 years, accounting for 46% of the world’s population. Countries partly free expanded from 48 to 60, while 36% of the world population today lives in 43 countries with authoritarian regimes. The movement from authoritarian to more democratic regimes is being aided by the growth of civil society, media access for pro-democratic actors, long-term economic stability, a focus on citizen participation, transparent judicial systems, e-government with Internet access, increasing literacy, improved quality of governance assessment systems, international interdependence, and the development of a global consciousness. Democratic forces will have to work harder to make sure that the short-term reversals do not stop the longer-term trend of democratization.

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Approaches to address this challenge

International protocols are needed to assist failed states or regions within states, and intervention procedures are needed when a state constitutes a significant threat to its citizens or others. Although making development assistance dependent on good governance has helped in some countries, genuine democracy will be achieved when the people—not external actors—demand government accountability. The ILO warns that workplace discrimination remains common around the world and that, in spite of some progress on gender and race, discrimination based on age, sexual orientation, and disability is increasing.

The Internet allows self-organization around common ideals, independent of conventional institutional controls and regardless of nationality or languages. Injustices in different parts of the world become the concern of thousands or millions of people who then pressure local, regional, or international governing systems to find solutions. This unparalleled social power is reinventing citizens’ roles in the political process and changing institutions, policymaking, and governance. However, the development of methods to counter information manipulation, as well as increased freedom of information transmission, will be important for continued democratic consolidation. Organized crime, methods to tamper with election results, information warfare, and the potential of individuals to make and use weapons of mass destruction should be seriously addressed in order to build a healthy global democracy.

Challenge 4 will be addressed seriously when strategies to address these threats are in place, when less than 10% of the world lives in nondemocratic countries, when the number of armed conflicts (those with 1,000 or more deaths per year) diminishes by half, and when voter participation in most democracies exceeds 60% in most elections.

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Regional Considerations

Africa: Democratization has regressed over the past several years, with failed state policies, rampant corruption, and ethnic tensions in Kenya, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. Freedom House rated 11 of the 48 countries in the region “free,” while 15 regressed and 6 made improvements. The Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance adopted by the African Union in 2007 sets democratic standards to be met by African governments and provides a framework for assessing progress. The Pan African Parliament might get legislative power in 2009.

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Asia and Oceania: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka all saw declines in their Freedom House ratings. China accounts for half of all those living in “not free” countries and frequently blocks access to Web sites such as YouTube and Wikipedia. Freedom House rates 16 of Asia’s 39 countries as “free,” 13 as “partly free,” and 10 “not free.” Only 7% of the region’s population had access to free media in 2007. ASEAN adopted a new Charter to foster integration and democracy. In the Middle East, Israel remains the only country rated “free,” while 6 countries are “partly free” and 11 are rated “not free.” The Arab League could play an important role in improving democracy in this region. Political demonstrations in South Korea are increasingly conducted in cyberspace, opening potentials for greater participatory democracy.

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Europe: The EU is a champion of public participation in policymaking. All 27 EU countries are rated “free.” Currently 8 million illegal immigrants are estimated to be in the EU. New regulations were adopted to strengthen and harmonize the legal system of migration and immigrants’ integration across the Union. Countries hoping to join the EU are working to develop their democratic institutions and cultures. In some of the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe (non-EU) countries, the tendency toward autocracy, corruption, and lack of progressive institutions hinders the democratization process. Russia has begun implementing its national plan against corruption.

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Latin America: Latin America has the highest level of inequality in the world, and organized crime, corruption, and repression of civil liberties threaten many of its young democracies. Populist governments promise to improve social justice along with economic growth. The Union of South American Nations is intended to strengthen regional integration and democracy. However, censorship, as well as violence and intimidation against media by organized crime groups, are deteriorating the freedom of the press in the region.

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North America: Although established democracies, Canada and the U.S. are faced with powerful lobbying, increased corruption, freedom-restrictive regulations, and centralization of media. Yet having a woman and an African-American in the 2008 Democratic Party presidential nomination race is a historic moment for the U.S. and for world democracy. There are censorship concerns over new Canadian legislation that allows the government constraints over film and television productions deemed “contrary to public policy.” Direct voting on issues via the Internet should be considered to augment representative democracy.

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Graph: Global trends of freedom

Source: Freedom in the World 2008, Freedom House

If you want to suggest a better graphic representation for this challenge, please indicate the source(s) of data:

Additional Comments
4. Please suggest any additional comments concerning this challenge:



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Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the WFUNA