Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
5. Long-Term Perspectives
How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2008 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report.
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General Description

The world food crisis has focused international attention on creating global long-term and short-term strategies to address hunger. International consequences of the U.S. sub-prime loan crisis and increasing reports of Arctic ice melts demonstrate the need for improved global long-term perspectives and global systems for resilience—the capacity to anticipate, respond, and recover from disasters such as tsunamis, financial crashes, pandemics, conflicts, prolonged electric or Internet outrages, and massive migrations due to water shortages. Such foresight systems should also identify new technological possibilities and social innovations as well as problems.

Government presidents or prime ministers should have some form of situation room with a nationally integrated information system (see Chapter 5) of data, knowledge, and experts supported by global scanning systems (interoperable with all government departments) and the ability to identify and assess expert judgments in real time (see Chapter 3). Its staff should also synthesize futures research from other government departments, calculate a national SOFI (see Chapter 2), and produce national state of the future reports. Such government future strategy units (see Chapter 4) could be connected to share best practices, compare research, and verify assumptions. This network could also connect with similar units in UN agencies (such as WHO) and with the Office of the UN Secretary-General to help coordinate national and international strategies and goals. Decisionmakers should be trained in futures research for optimal use of these systems.

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Approaches to address this challenge

National legislatures could establish standing “Committees for the Future,” as Finland has done. National foresight studies should be continually updated, improved, and conducted interactively with other national long-range efforts. Alternative scenarios that show cause-and-effect relations and expose decision points leading to different consequences from different strategies should be shared with parliamentarians and the public for feedback. Government budgets should consider 5–10 year allocations attached to rolling 5–10 year scenarios and strategies. Governments with short-term election cycles should consider longer, more stable terms and funds for staffers of parliamentarians. If national State of the Future Indexes (see Chapter 2) were constructed and used in evaluating policymakers’ performance, decisionmakers would be more inclined to pursue policies that address the longer term. A checklist of ways to better connect futures research to decisionmaking is available in Chapter 11 of the attached CD.

Communications and advertising companies can create memes to help the public become sensitive to global long-term perspectives so that more future-oriented educated publics would elect more future-oriented global-minded politicians. Prizes could be given to recognize the best examples of global long-term decisionmaking. Participatory policymaking processes augmented by e-government services can be created that are informed by futures research. Universities should fund the convergence of disciplines, teach futures research and synthesis as well as analysis, and produce generalists in addition to specialists. Efforts to increase the number and quality of courses on futures concepts and methods should be supported, as well as augmenting standard curricula with futures methodologies converted to teaching techniques that help future-orient instruction.

Although there is an increasing recognition that accelerating change requires longer-term perspectives, decisionmakers feel little pressure to consider global long-term perspectives. Nevertheless, attaining long-range goals like landing on the moon or eradicating smallpox that were considered impossible inspired many people to go beyond selfish, short-term interests to great achievements. (An international assessment of such future goals is found in Chapter 4.2 on the CD.) The UN Millennium Development Goals for 2015 have become benchmarks for the future.

Each of the 15 Global Challenges in this chapter and the eight UN Millennium Development Goals could be the basis for transinstitutional coalitions composed of self-selected governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and international organizations that are willing to commit the resources and talent to address a specific goal.

Challenge 5 will be addressed seriously when foresight functions are a routine part of most organizations and governments, when national SOFIs are used in at least 50 countries, when the consequences of high-risk projects are routinely considered before they are initiated, and when standing Committees for the Future exist in at least 50 national legislatures.

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Regional Considerations

Africa: China is becoming a force in African long-range planning. Daily management of many African countries makes future, global perspectives difficult; hence, more regional bodies like the African Union, NEPAD, and African Development Bank are more likely to further futures work in Africa and should build on 10 years of work of UNDP/ African Futures on incorporating long-term perspectives into mid- and short-term planning.

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Asia and Oceania: The increasing power of China and eventually India should lead to more global, long-term decisionmaking as they interact with Europe and North America on global issues. Australia plans to release its plan on its future role in Asia in late 2008. Japan includes private sector companies in its long-term strategic planning unit. South Korea is considering legislation for a permanent Future Strategy unit in the Office of the President.

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Europe: Global long-term thinking continues to be stimulated by the Lisbon Strategy, increasing immigrants from developing countries, public finances for social and health services for an aging population, restructuring energy systems, changing ethnic demographics, and geopolitical shifts such as the emergence of China. The 7th Framework Programme of the EU expands foresight support; the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies provides futures studies for EU decisionmaking; the European Foresight Monitoring Network connects futurists; an annual European Futurists Conference is held in Switzerland; and the European Regional Foresight College improves future methods. Foresight was included in the Russian Federal Program 2007–12.

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Latin America: The shift toward more socialist politics is motivating alternative futures thinking, as could the Union of South American Countries. Yet futures approaches are ignored by the academic and mass media that focus on urgent and confrontational issues over ideologies, unmet basic needs, growing inequality, and large economic groups that monopolize services. The Global Millennium Prize was initiated in Mexico for students worldwide who are 15-19 years old and have the best ideas for addressing the global long-range challenges.

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North America: National elections in the U.S. are creating alternative global perspectives in American decisionmaking. New interactive and analytical mechanisms could promote foresight, if citizens expect and demand it. A collection of high-impact cases should be developed in which foresight leads to demonstrable benefits or when the lack of futures thinking proves costly. (See CD Chapter 11 for examples.)

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If you have a suggestion for a graphic representation to measure change on this challenge, please indicate the source(s) of data:

Additional Comments
5 Please suggest any additional comments concerning this challenge:



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Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the WFUNA