Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
14. Science and Technology
How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2008 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report. Please add your suggestions in the space provided after each paragraph and feel free to contact us with any questions.

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General Description

The acceleration of S&T innovations, improved communications among scientists, and future synergies among nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science will fundamentally change the prospects for civilization. A computer can now perform 1.144 thousand trillion floating point operations per second, supporting computational science’s new simulations to improve medicine, materials, climate predictions, and other insights into nature. Scanning electron microscopes can see 0.01 nanometers (the distance between a hydrogen nucleus and its electron). Photons have been slowed and accelerated to learn how to create optical computers; synthetic chromosomes have been created from laboratory chemicals; quantum phenomena and entanglement are being probed; experiments to teleport individual photons are being conducted; and dark energy is explored to counter gravity. Industrial nations increased their R&D investment from 1.5% of GDP in 1980 to more than 2.2% today; 157,283 patents were granted in 2007. Millions of people volunteer their computers’ excess capacity to help find cures for cancer. Heads of government science information portals are beginning to collaborate to better inform the world public.

New diseases like SARS can now have their DNA sequenced in several weeks, speeding cures for new infectious diseases. Individuals can have their DNA analyzed today for $1,000. The price is expected to drop to $100 and require only one day, making full DNA analysis a practical diagnostic tool and opening the possibility of truly customized medicine. Human skin cells have been stimulated to act like embryonic stem cells without using embryos or eggs; pancreatic tissue created from embryonic stem cells has generated insulin; the Isx-9 molecule was created to stimulate brain stem cells to become mature neurons that can be re-implanted to improve brain functioning and longevity; future stem cell application could revitalize any part of the body. The genome of a bacterium of one species has been moved to a cell of a different variety, which became indistinguishable from one of the donor type. Genetic research seems destined to cure inherited disease potentials. Genetically modified viruses can coat themselves with electrically conducting metals to form nano-wires that self-assemble into battery components, and microbial fuel cells have been demonstrated.

MRI brain imaging shows primitive pictures of real-time thought processes, and changes among specific neurons can be traced as new memories are stored. Nanoparticles and fibers stimulate neural growth, and mini-biocomputers help treat specific individual cells. Robotic micro-tweezers gently pick up and move single cells. Faint magnetic signals from a single electron buried inside a solid sample have been detected. Organic transistors with a single-molecule channel length are now visible.

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Approaches to address this challenge

Over 600 nanotechnology-related products improve quality and make new capacities possible, from releasing medicine in the body to forming thin-film photovoltaics, promising to reduce cost, resources, and pollution per unit of output. However, environmental health impact studies may find dangers and initiate regulations for nanotech production and use. A science roadmap has been produced for atomically precise nanoscale building blocks, components, and devices. Nanobots the size of blood cells may one day enter the body to diagnose and provide therapies and internal VR imagery.

Genetic code is being written to create new life forms; artificial organs may be constructed in a manner similar to 3-D printing; surgical robots are now MRI-compatible; external light can be concentrated on internal targets for photodynamic therapy and to power implanted devices.

However, the risks from acceleration and globalization of S&T are enormous (see CD Chapter 3.5 for global 2025 S&T scenarios) and give rise to future ethical issues (See CD Chapter 5, Science and Technology Management Issues). We need a global collective intelligence system to track S&T advances, forecast consequences, and document a range of views so that politicians and the public can understand the potential consequences of new S&T. Currently the InterAcademy Panel, a worldwide network of 90 science academies, is increasing access to S&T information and cooperation around the world, and furthering basic science as necessary to replenish the pool of knowledge from which applied science draws its insights to improve the human condition.

Challenge 14 will be addressed seriously when the funding of R&D for societal needs reaches parity with funding for weapons and other purposes, and when an international science and technology organization is established that routinely connects world S&T knowledge for use in R&D priority setting and legislation.

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Regional Considerations

Africa: The Science with Africa initiative with the African Union, UN Economic Commission for Africa, and others is creating synergies among African and first world science organizations. Africa has 83 engineers for every 1 million people, compared with 1,000 per million in the more developed world.

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Asia and Oceania: China has the second largest R&D system in the world next to the U.S. Japan has the highest R&D budget per GDP in the world at 3.2%, and South Korea’s R&D is growing rapidly. The U.S. and China are increasing S&T cooperation in energy and environment. There are more IT engineers in Bangalore than in Silicon Valley. In cooperation with Asian science organizations, Japan is leading the Strategic Program for Building an Asian Science and Technology Community.

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Europe: The EU plans to increase R&D expenditures to 3% of GDP by 2010 and to attract an additional 700,000 researchers. Russia has lost over 500,000 scientists over the last 15 years, but a reverse trend is beginning, salaries have increased, innovation is encouraged, and high-tech is being supported. Switzerland has the largest number of Nobel prizes, patents, and science citations per person in the world.

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Latin America: The region averages 0.4% of GDP for S&T development but hopes to increase that to 3% by 2010 and should improve its public-private R&D long-term cooperation, regional research networks, national strategic R&D planning, basic research, S&T literacy of benefits and risks, and incentives for private investment in local R&D.

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North America: The U.S. continues to lead world R&D investments with more than $360 billion from all sources during 2007, and it is making an annual investment of $1.5 billion in nanotechnology R&D. These investments have shifted from the government supporting 60% in 1965 to the private sector supporting over 65% since 2006. Each week the U.S. Patent Office makes about 3,500 new patents freely available online. MIT offers free online S&T courses. Falling numbers of students in S&T, religious fundamentalist politics, and the imposition of other political points of view are threats to the continued excellence of U.S. science. Prizes can speed the distribution of technology that benefits humanity, such as the Tech Awards from the Tech Museum in San Jose, California, or Richard Branson’s new prize for a plan to remove a billion tons of carbon dioxide a year, as can tech sports like MIT’s robot competitions.

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If you have a suggestion for a graphic representation to measure change on this challenge, please indicate the source(s) of data:


Additional Comments
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Thank you for your participation. The results will be sent to you in the next State of the Future.



Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the WFUNA