Report presented in July 2002 Planning Committee Meeting

Dr. Kamal Z. Mahmoud, chair of the Cairo Node of the Millennium Project, couldn't come to the March 14-15 Planning Committee meeting, but sent the report on the latest activities related to the Project and the Cairo Node.

Current   Progress at Cairo Node (C.N.)

1. Millennium  Symposium  II  of  Cairo  University
Planned, organized and conducted by the joint association of visionists at the Future Research and Study Center (FRSC) of Cairo University , and Cairo Node's Visionists Council on Dec. 24-27, 2001.
Proceedings on the Modernization of Egypt : Future Visions .. came in 2 volumes. Volume 1 is available in Arabic language on the economical, political and education modernization. Volume 2 will be issued in both Arabic and English to encompass other issues : industry, agriculture, energy, biotechnology and peace

2. Peace and Conflicts Scenarios
Chaired by the Minister of Exterior Mr. Ahmed Maher , and Dr. Osama EL-Baz ;  Political Advisor to President Moubarak,  3 scenarios were elaborated and presented by Dr. Kamal Z. Mahmoud ; C.N. - chairperson and FRSC – director.

3. The Destiny of Arab and Moslem Labour and Immigration
Movement after September 11, 2001
Organized by the Arab Labour Organization of the Arab League in Cairo, the future of immigration was discussed by Dr. Kamal Z. Mahmoud ; C.N. – chairperson, among other thinktanks and futurists, on January 31, 2002.

4. State of the Future at the Millennium
Translated to Arabic language by Dr. Kamal Z. Mahmoud and Dr. Atef Sherif, revised by Prof. Dr. Mohamed Anani (in press)

5. Draft Questionnaire on Terrorism
Very special views and restatements provided by C.N. members.

6. Key Visionists New on the List at C.N.
Dr. Osama EL-Baz (President’s advisor), Prof. Dr. Adib Ghomeimy (Faculty of Engineering), Dr. Ahmad Y. EL-Korai (AL-Ahram Newspaper)

Future  Trends  at  C. N.

1. C.N. , a National Organization for the Study of the Futures
To be recognized by law of the National Institutes in Egypt .. raising funds, and sharing projects on futures research and studies .

2. C.N. , a Promoter to other Futures-Oriented Organizations
Such as the High Council of the Future , and the Egyptian Council for the UNU .. being state-affiliated.

3. C.N. , a Promoter to University Degree in Futurology
In Cairo University

4. C.N. ,  an Advisory Organ
To newly emerging public and private future-Oriented institutes in other countries (Syria , Damascus’ University .. Kuwaitam  Private Center), and Egypt (Zagazig University)

5. C.N. ,  Contractor in Futures Research and Study Projects
On Global and Regional Peace and Conflicts

1. The Rise Of Extremism

Israeli escalation against Palestinians and President Yasser Arafat’s authority would lead to grave consequences on the entire region. Israeli policy would lead to unlimited dangers in the future :

• Undermining the Palestinian Authority (P.A.) will tigger chaos both inside Israel and in the region.
• Israeli strikes against P.A. completely contradict Tel Aviv’s frequent pressure on the Palestinian leader Arafat to arrest militants while deprived of all tools.
• Any one to take over after Arafat needs popularity which could only be gained by attacks against Israel.
• Regional Violence will continue until Israel realizes that its repressive measures in the occupied territories would not bring security.
• Violence in the region would also spell over throughout the world, threatening the interests of all major powers.
• Although Israeli had lived in the region since 1948, the Israelis had so far failed to understand the psychology of Palestinians and Arabs.
• Security and peace in the Middle East will not prevail before a sovereign Palestinian State is established “this can only be achieved through negotiations and through easing siege of the Palestinian areas”
• There are red lines regarding Arafat’s ability of negotiation in some issues like the issue of Al-Haram Al-Sharif in the occupied East Jerusalem, he can not show flexibility.
• During the Camp David summit (in 2000) Arafat showed flexibility in negotiations over East Jerusalem. He proposed that Israel keeps the Wailing Wall and the Jewish district and hand back three Palestinian quarters.

Since new U.S. President George W. Bush assumed office, President Mubarak sent him nine messages on the regional situation, not taking sides in the conflict, but only care for peace stability

• Israel practices pre-empt the U.S. efforts to contain violence in the region and restart peace negotiations.
• The U.S. while involved in a war against terrorism, the Bush Administration was interested in the Middle East conflict by the statement read by U.S. Secretary of the State Colin Powell, which was followed by dispatching the envoys to the region.
• The Israeli policy succeeded in halting the efforts by violence escalation. Israel interprets the U.S. support as a green light to destroy the infrastructure of the P. A.

Dealing with terrorism demands a wise policy in the long run that mainly depends on world cooperation. Terrorism can never be terminated unless causes of terrorism are addressed.

• President Mubarak was the first world leader to warn against terrorism as a global threat in mid-1980s.
• Terrorism finds a fertile ground to thrive under “feelings of frustration and despair, lack of justice, the double – standard policies or other political, economic and social reasons”. Renewing his call for an international conference under the auspices of the UN to discuss terrorism, Mubarak said the world organization should have a jurisdiction in the anti-terror war;

 
 “Otherwise, the international campaign against terrorism would divide the world according to geographical, ideological or religious rules, fueling what some people term as clash of civilizations. A clear definition should try to avoid linking terrorism to Islam, Arabs or to the people’s legitimate right to fight occupation.
• Ten years after Egypt used the emergency law in its fight against terrorism, the U.S. issued similar law allowing the trial of terrorists at military tribunals. The UK also enforced an anti-terror law.
• President Mubarak put at LE three billions the losses incurred by Egypt due to repression of the Sept. 11 attacks. He singled out the sectors hit by the fallout as air transport, tourism, and insurance.

During a recent address President Mubarak made at the beginning of the new parliamentary session, he directed the Government to rearrange its agenda of priorities to handle the situation :

• shifting sights to domestic tourism, to buy local products  so as to help revive the market, population increase as a major obstacle to national development.
• Calling for the promotion of national exports, opening up new markets, luring more foreign investments to Egypt.
• On a draft bill on tax reform to be taken up by the People’s Assembly (lower house of Egyptian Parliament), to enhance social justice , special attention to political reforms with a view to enhancing democracy, participation of the young people and women.

Dr. Kamal Z. Mahmoud, chair of the Cairo Node of the Millennium Project presented the latest activities and projects of the Node at the Planning Committee meeting in July 19-20, Philadelphia.

• CONTINUED INTERACTIONS The Millennium Project – Cairo Node Partnership
• Participation in the Future Science and Technology Management and Policy Implications, Counterterrorism Scenarios, Global Goals for 2050 , Environmenal Security and Military Requerements
• ARABIC VERSIONS of the State of the Future
• IMPLEMENTING  THE  FUTURE
• Modernization of Egypt and Peace Scenarios : FRSC – Cairo University Millennium Symposium II, December 24-27, 2001
• Sensing the Future :Franco – Egyptian Partnership, in Communication – Information Systems (October 2002) in Tourism and Heritage (October 2003) with Dr Fabienne Goux-Baudiment, and Meublat-Shaeer (Moderators)
• euroProaspctive – FRSC “Futuribles”:  The Future of Education in Egypt
• proGovern Proposals
• New Futurists joining the group
• SEPTEMBER 11 AFTERMATH: Towards Prosperous Global Collective Future;

“Global, or humanity’s collective future depends on adherence to the principles of international legitimacy, reinforcing the ability of the UN to act as umbrella beneath which justice among nations can be achieved, and the exercise of dialogue among civilisations” [Visionists’ Council of Cairo Node, and FRSC of Cairo University, 2001]
GREATER GLOBAL DIALOGUE DEMAND: “To invite US intellectuals, and intellectuals from around the world ; those who justified the US war against terrorism as a “Just War” (The letter of the Institute of American Values, 12 February 2002) , and those  who criticised it (letter of April 2002)” [EL-Sayed Yassin , AL-Ahram Newspaper,] Visionists’ Council of Cairo Node

TO ENGAGE In an Open and Constructive Dialogue of Civilisations, Reaching Solutions that will save the intellectual community from dangerous policies
TO STIMULATE DEBATE among the International Community of Intellectuals in the most appropriate means to secure a collective future for humanity
HOPING that it will ELICIT IDEAS AND CRITICISMS that will enrich discussion and help improve the text on: terrorism –counterterrorism, clash of civilizations, Middle East -global peace crisis, global dialogue

TERRORISM - COUNTERTERRORISM:
“ We hold the right to life and safety as the most basic human right, must be respected by all nations and guaranteed effectively by the UN”. Terrorists, political leaders, and criminals who violate this right should be brought to account before the International Criminal Court, an institution intended by the international community to prosecute war criminals, and for which the US continues to withhold support.
“We affirm, from the outset, our unequivocal condemnation of the terrorist attacks against the US in 11 September”
“We further condemn attacks against civilians on principles, whether they occur in the US, as happened on 11 September, or in Afghanistan, as during the US campaign, or in Palestine, in the West Bank and Gaza ” [Visionists’ Council, Cairo Node]

THE CLASH OF CIVILISATIONS RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC CONFLICTS:
“ We believe that there is no clash between civilizations, and that all people of the world, including the Arabs and Muslim peoples , aspire to live in peace, in a climate of respect for human rights ” [Visionists’ Council, Cairo Node ]

THE MIDDLE EAST – GLOBAL PEACE CRISIS:
The US administration’s habitual division of the world’s nations into “good” and “evil”, fixed concept that “who aren’t with us are against us”, and the intellectuals’ concept of the “just war” are the potentials to spark religious and rationally motivated regional and international conflicts.

We observed with concern the growing hostility towards Arabs and Muslims in the US media following the attacks of 11 September.
Arabs and Muslims have invariably been portrayed as potential terrorists, to be viewed with suspicion.
Islam has been assailed as a religion that breeds and encourages terrorism.
These campaigns ignore the fact that terrorism is a worldwide phenomenon, and that extremist political and religious movements exist in every country, including the US.
The declared intention to strike Iraq militarily and to oust its regime outside of the framework of international legitimacy threatens chaos in international relations and destroys the very foundation of the international law.
The implicit carte blanche to Israel to unleash its compaigns of aggression against the Palestinian people poses a grave threat to regional security in the Middle East, and exposes the Palestinian people to enormous suffering in contravention of all international treaties and conventions.

GREATER GLOBAL DIALOGUE
We praise the initiative of UN Secretary-General, forming a committee representative of the diversity of the contemporary cultures, writing a collective report on the “Dialogue Among Civilizations”, and the crucial report “Crossing the Divide”, of October 2001.
Such dialogue should take place within the UN framework, specifically the General Assembly in a special session, and should be based on the UN-sponsored report Crossing the Divide” of October, 2001
In this context, however, a clear distinction must be drawn between the legitimate right of a people to resist foreign occupation, and terrorism, the latter being rightly condemned by the international community.

THE TRIPLE  DEMANDS:

• New Global Order
• New Global Partnerships
• New Greater Global Dialogue