Global Challenges-1

Millennium Project
- Global Challenges - 1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the 2004 State of the Future.

General Description Comments

Wildfires annually burn an area half the size of Australia and generate nearly 40% of total CO2 emissions. The cumulative volume of greenhouse gases produced by fossil fuel consumption over the next 50 years could more than double the output during the last 50 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates a 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius warming by century's end, which could raise sea levels by 34 inches, changing human coastal settlements and melting the polar ice cap. Already, atmospheric CO2-which for 400,000 years fluctuated between 180 and 280 ppm-has reached 380 ppm. Only human activity can explain this change, says the US National Academy of Sciences. Three of the last five years were the hottest in recorded history, glaciers are receding worldwide, and global temperature changes threaten entire ecosystems, causing some species migration and having new consequences for human health. Climate change may threaten more than 1 million species with extinction by 2050. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for damages caused by greenhouse gases.
Humanity may have consumed more natural resources since World War II than in all of history prior to that time. Half the world's forests and 25% of the coral reefs are gone. Some 9.4 million hectares of forest area are lost annually worldwide. World leaders' declarations on sustainable development have not yet been matched by concerted actions for global change. The April 2004 meeting of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development reinforced the need for strategic investments in water, sanitation, and human settlements to meet the commitments of the WSSD. The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behavior, the next 200 years could be difficult.

Next to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, unsustainable growth may well be the greatest threat to the future of humanity. Yet without sustainable growth, billions of people will be condemned to poverty, and much of civilization will collapse.

Approaches to address this challenge Comments

The public has to be engaged through massive educational efforts via television, music, games, movies, and contests that stress the quality of human beings in harmony with nature along with what individuals and groups can do to change consumer behavior, initiate environmental tax reforms, and move from a fossil fuel economy toward a knowledge-consciousness economy. We should bring scientists and engineers from around the world together with new leadership from UN Global Compact corporations to stimulate investments into more-sustainable solutions; establish an environmental crimes international intelligence and police unit; create definitions and measurements for commonly applied tax incentives and labels for more environmentally friendly products; abolish environmentally inefficient subsidies; include environmental costs in the pricing of natural resources and products; invest in socially responsible businesses; spread the environmental standards ISO 14000 and 14001 to more countries and companies; create an international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies such as carbon sequestration or space solar power and for acquiring the rights to innovate "green" tech-nologies; declare key habitats off-limits for human development; consider the establishment of a World Environment Organization with powers like the WTO; encourage synergy between environmental movements and human rights groups to make clean air, water, and land a human right; and demonstrate how to change complacency and consumption while increasing efficiency and improving living standards.

Regional Perspectives Comments

Africa: Tie local self-help to government budgets, coordinate natural resources management planning and training continent-wide, combat AIDS as a top priority, and create partnerships between internal development organizations and international funding and technical assistance agencies. Continued stability and economic growth in South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt could provide the basis for the continent's long-term development.

Asia and Oceania: Most of the 2 billion people vulnerable to increases in floods due to climate change and population growth by 2050 will be in Asia. Rapid urbanization and economic growth over the next generation will require massive efforts to supply additional electricity. China and then India will eventually emit more greenhouse gases than the United States. China has no choice but to create new approaches to sustainable development. China has to feed over 22% of the world's population with less than 7% of the world's arable land. Japan is a world leader in environmentally friendly cars, but still it is not likely to meet its Kyoto target due to the recent shutdown of its nuclear power stations and increasing emissions. India loses over 10% of its GDP per annum because of loss in agricultural productivity, health costs due to polluted air and water, and costs due to depleted water resources.

Europe: The EU as a whole is not expected to make the Kyoto targets for lowered greenhouse gases emissions by 2010; with existing policies, only the United Kingdom, Sweden, and seven new EU members are expected to reach their targets. The EU also expects to begin trading in greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. Ethnic conflict and growing crime get in the way of Central and East European efforts toward sustainability. Because feedback mechanisms are not well established in Central and Eastern Europe, there is little trust in a free system, and consequently apathy spreads.

Latin America: Guerrillas, paramilitaries, and drug dealers create political instability, displacing farmers and leading to irrational uses of the land. Brazil is the world's leading biodiversity hotspot and rainforest conservation site. Attacks on land tenure and the breakup of farms into smaller parcels is generating irreversible ecological damage in most countries. Decentralize the decisionmaking process, move from sectoral to integrated development approaches funded by international agencies, and stop deforestation.

North America: Without serious change, total US greenhouse gas emissions will increase 43% between 2000 and 2020, raising temperatures in the 48 contiguous states by 3-5 degrees Celsius this century. Agricultural and energy subsidies should be eliminated and research should be done to convert CO2 emissions into useful by-products such as sugars, proteins, and starches. Within the next 10 years we could develop nanobiological solutions to our toxic agricultural practices. As the world's largest consumer, largest producer of greenhouse gases, and largest economic power and as a role model for the developing world, North America has to make major changes: resolve the conflict between corporations' short-term profits and long-term sustainability, eliminate corporate subsidies, invest in socially responsible businesses, publish indicators of progress, and demonstrate how to reduce consumption while increasing efficiency and improving living standards.

Additional Comments:

General Description	Comments
Wildfires annually burn an area half the size of Australia and generate nearly 40% of total CO2 emissions. The cumulative volume of greenhouse gases produced by fossil fuel consumption over the next 50 years could more than double the output during the last 50 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates a 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius warming by century's end, which could raise sea levels by 34 inches, changing human coastal settlements and melting the polar ice cap. Already, atmospheric CO2-which for 400,000 years fluctuated between 180 and 280 ppm-has reached 380 ppm. Only human activity can explain this change, says the US National Academy of Sciences. Three of the last five years were the hottest in recorded history, glaciers are receding worldwide, and global temperature changes threaten entire ecosystems, causing some species migration and having new consequences for human health. Climate change may threaten more than 1 million species with extinction by 2050. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for damages caused by greenhouse gases. Humanity may have consumed more natural resources since World War II than in all of history prior to that time. Half the world's forests and 25% of the coral reefs are gone. Some 9.4 million hectares of forest area are lost annually worldwide. World leaders' declarations on sustainable development have not yet been matched by concerted actions for global change. The April 2004 meeting of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development reinforced the need for strategic investments in water, sanitation, and human settlements to meet the commitments of the WSSD. The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behavior, the next 200 years could be difficult. Next to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, unsustainable growth may well be the greatest threat to the future of humanity. Yet without sustainable growth, billions of people will be condemned to poverty, and much of civilization will collapse.
Approaches to address this challenge	Comments
The public has to be engaged through massive educational efforts via television, music, games, movies, and contests that stress the quality of human beings in harmony with nature along with what individuals and groups can do to change consumer behavior, initiate environmental tax reforms, and move from a fossil fuel economy toward a knowledge-consciousness economy. We should bring scientists and engineers from around the world together with new leadership from UN Global Compact corporations to stimulate investments into more-sustainable solutions; establish an environmental crimes international intelligence and police unit; create definitions and measurements for commonly applied tax incentives and labels for more environmentally friendly products; abolish environmentally inefficient subsidies; include environmental costs in the pricing of natural resources and products; invest in socially responsible businesses; spread the environmental standards ISO 14000 and 14001 to more countries and companies; create an international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies such as carbon sequestration or space solar power and for acquiring the rights to innovate "green" tech-nologies; declare key habitats off-limits for human development; consider the establishment of a World Environment Organization with powers like the WTO; encourage synergy between environmental movements and human rights groups to make clean air, water, and land a human right; and demonstrate how to change complacency and consumption while increasing efficiency and improving living standards.
Regional Perspectives	Comments
Africa: Tie local self-help to government budgets, coordinate natural resources management planning and training continent-wide, combat AIDS as a top priority, and create partnerships between internal development organizations and international funding and technical assistance agencies. Continued stability and economic growth in South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt could provide the basis for the continent's long-term development.
Asia and Oceania: Most of the 2 billion people vulnerable to increases in floods due to climate change and population growth by 2050 will be in Asia. Rapid urbanization and economic growth over the next generation will require massive efforts to supply additional electricity. China and then India will eventually emit more greenhouse gases than the United States. China has no choice but to create new approaches to sustainable development. China has to feed over 22% of the world's population with less than 7% of the world's arable land. Japan is a world leader in environmentally friendly cars, but still it is not likely to meet its Kyoto target due to the recent shutdown of its nuclear power stations and increasing emissions. India loses over 10% of its GDP per annum because of loss in agricultural productivity, health costs due to polluted air and water, and costs due to depleted water resources.
Europe: The EU as a whole is not expected to make the Kyoto targets for lowered greenhouse gases emissions by 2010; with existing policies, only the United Kingdom, Sweden, and seven new EU members are expected to reach their targets. The EU also expects to begin trading in greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. Ethnic conflict and growing crime get in the way of Central and East European efforts toward sustainability. Because feedback mechanisms are not well established in Central and Eastern Europe, there is little trust in a free system, and consequently apathy spreads.
Latin America: Guerrillas, paramilitaries, and drug dealers create political instability, displacing farmers and leading to irrational uses of the land. Brazil is the world's leading biodiversity hotspot and rainforest conservation site. Attacks on land tenure and the breakup of farms into smaller parcels is generating irreversible ecological damage in most countries. Decentralize the decisionmaking process, move from sectoral to integrated development approaches funded by international agencies, and stop deforestation.
North America: Without serious change, total US greenhouse gas emissions will increase 43% between 2000 and 2020, raising temperatures in the 48 contiguous states by 3-5 degrees Celsius this century. Agricultural and energy subsidies should be eliminated and research should be done to convert CO2 emissions into useful by-products such as sugars, proteins, and starches. Within the next 10 years we could develop nanobiological solutions to our toxic agricultural practices. As the world's largest consumer, largest producer of greenhouse gases, and largest economic power and as a role model for the developing world, North America has to make major changes: resolve the conflict between corporations' short-term profits and long-term sustainability, eliminate corporate subsidies, invest in socially responsible businesses, publish indicators of progress, and demonstrate how to reduce consumption while increasing efficiency and improving living standards.