Global Challenges-6

Millennium Project
- Global Challenges - 6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the 2004 State of the Future.

General Description Comments

As the integration of cell phones, video, and the Internet grows, prices will fall, accelerating globalization and allowing swarms of people to quickly form and disband, coordinate actions, and share information ranging from stock market tips to bold new ideas (meme epidemics). China may pass the United States in the number of Internet users within two years; it already leads the world in cell phone users. Fifteen years ago few people had even heard of the Internet. Today it is the most powerful force in history for globalization, democratization, economic growth, and education, facilitating international management of everything from controlling the spread of SARS to accelerating scientific collaboration and creating new organizational forms that are changing the nature of governance. Fifteen years from now the majority of the world may be connected to the "planetary nervous system," making cyberspace an unprecedented medium for civilization. This new distribution of the means of production in the knowledge economy is cutting through old hierarchical controls in politics, economics, and finance. It is becoming a self-organizing mechanism for an emerging and collective computer/human intelligence, while international networks of experts are creating a more intelligent "Semantic Web" by defining concepts for common understanding among Internet users.
At the same time, civilization is vulnerable to cyber terrorism, power outages, information pollution (misinformation, pornography, junk e-mail, media violence), and virus attacks. (The probability of a catastrophic attack-global damages in excess of $100 billion from a chain of combined events-has risen from 2.5% for 2003 to about 30% for 2004, according to mi2g Ltd.) Microsoft says that these threats cannot be eliminated without a complete redesign of the PC, not expected before 2005-06. Junk mail at mid-2004 is expected to reach 80% of e-mails worldwide, according to MessageLabs. Threats of information warfare, financial market vulnerability, fraud, loss of cultural diversity, terrorist intercommunications, and knowledge gaps all have to be addressed.

Meanwhile, millions will jump from no cameras right to cheap Internet cell phone cameras, with profound effects on global awareness. Mobile phones outnumbered fixed ones for the first time in 2002. Computer Industry Almanac estimates that in 2004 the Internet population will be close to 1 billion, and in 2007 might be 1.46 billion. In 1995, the United States had 75% of all Internet users in the world; today the digital divide is closing: there are 494.92 million Internet users in the industrial world and 290.79 million in the developing and transition worlds, for a ratio of 1 to 1.7. Even as a percent of penetration the gap is closing-from 41 to 1 in 1992 to 8 to 1 in 2002, according to ITU.

Forrester Research predicts that global e-commerce will expand to $6.9 trillion by 2004 and to $12.8 trillion by 2006. Sales on eBay increased 60% over a year to reach $24 billion in 2003. InfoTech Trends predicts that the global B2B market will reach $5.5 trillion in 2004. The Economist says "this market has the potential to become as perfect as it gets."

Approaches to address this challenge Comments

Even with low-cost Internet devices with direct satellite access and nonproprietary software freely available in public places, massive investments in educational software and multilanguage voice recognition and synthesis will be necessary to make these useful for the poor majority of the world. We should encourage global "collaboratories"; end national telecommunication monopolies; invent incentives to provide training for all; develop solar robot antennas that hover at high altitudes above the weather instead of a proliferation of microwave towers on land; use existing software to block offensive materials; use tele-volunteers to help poorer regions; and redesign the PC to prevent viral damage.

Regional Perspectives Comments

Africa: ITU estimates mobile telephone subscribers will reach 65 million by the end of 2005, up from an expected 59.7 million at the end of 2004. WiFi and WiMax will extend the reach of telecommunications into Africa. With AIDS devastating professionals, tele-education, tele-medicine, and e-government will be increasingly important. Africa is reported to have 12.25 million Internet users; since many share accounts and public access, however, the number might be considerably higher. Mobile phone connections overtook landline installations in Africa for the past five years; as Internet and mobile phones merge, African Internet usage should accelerate.

Asia and Oceania: Internet and B2B e-commerce grows fastest in this region, according to IDC. If trends continue, China will have 108 million Internet users by the end of 2004. The actual number in China is higher because of users in cyber cafes, schools, and multiuser accounts. The Gartner research group expects outsourcing revenue in India to increase by 65% during 2004, to $3 billion. Japan has the highest Multimedia Message Service adoption rate in the world. Over 80% of Japanese households and businesses are now online. South Korea has the world's highest broadband penetration. Madar Research estimates that by the end of 2005, Arab countries will have 25 million Internet users, which will be about 8% of the population.

Europe: Europe has 218 million Internet users. Forrester Research predicts the online retail market will take 8% of total retail sales by 2009. The Scandinavian region is the 2004 world leader in "e-readiness ranking" done by the Intelligence Unit of The Economist. Information control creates unprecedented, unthinkable challenges for democracy. The Internet is fragmenting shared local beliefs but unifying beliefs globally. IDC forecasts that Linux usage will grow rapidly, accounting for almost a third of shipments in the Nordic countries within five years. The EU will create the European Network and Information Security Agency to counter Internet threats. IDC estimates that in Western Europe B2B e-commerce will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 91% from 2001 to 2005.

Latin America: Joint partnerships made possible by the Internet are crucial for the region's development. Only a minority of people consider the Internet for cultural and educational purposes; most see it in terms of business and entertainment. Internet users in Latin America will reach 60.6 million by 2004, predicts eMarketer. Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico will account for 65% of these.

North America: Internet2 connects 300 organizations at 10 gigabits per second. The United States and Canada have 228 million Internet users. US broadband users increased 42% over the previous year. The United States has more computers than the rest of the world combined. Latino Americans are the fastest-growing online ethnic group, while Asians are making more purchases via the Internet than any other ethnic group, according to The Media Audit.

Additional Comments:

General Description	Comments
As the integration of cell phones, video, and the Internet grows, prices will fall, accelerating globalization and allowing swarms of people to quickly form and disband, coordinate actions, and share information ranging from stock market tips to bold new ideas (meme epidemics). China may pass the United States in the number of Internet users within two years; it already leads the world in cell phone users. Fifteen years ago few people had even heard of the Internet. Today it is the most powerful force in history for globalization, democratization, economic growth, and education, facilitating international management of everything from controlling the spread of SARS to accelerating scientific collaboration and creating new organizational forms that are changing the nature of governance. Fifteen years from now the majority of the world may be connected to the "planetary nervous system," making cyberspace an unprecedented medium for civilization. This new distribution of the means of production in the knowledge economy is cutting through old hierarchical controls in politics, economics, and finance. It is becoming a self-organizing mechanism for an emerging and collective computer/human intelligence, while international networks of experts are creating a more intelligent "Semantic Web" by defining concepts for common understanding among Internet users. At the same time, civilization is vulnerable to cyber terrorism, power outages, information pollution (misinformation, pornography, junk e-mail, media violence), and virus attacks. (The probability of a catastrophic attack-global damages in excess of $100 billion from a chain of combined events-has risen from 2.5% for 2003 to about 30% for 2004, according to mi2g Ltd.) Microsoft says that these threats cannot be eliminated without a complete redesign of the PC, not expected before 2005-06. Junk mail at mid-2004 is expected to reach 80% of e-mails worldwide, according to MessageLabs. Threats of information warfare, financial market vulnerability, fraud, loss of cultural diversity, terrorist intercommunications, and knowledge gaps all have to be addressed. Meanwhile, millions will jump from no cameras right to cheap Internet cell phone cameras, with profound effects on global awareness. Mobile phones outnumbered fixed ones for the first time in 2002. Computer Industry Almanac estimates that in 2004 the Internet population will be close to 1 billion, and in 2007 might be 1.46 billion. In 1995, the United States had 75% of all Internet users in the world; today the digital divide is closing: there are 494.92 million Internet users in the industrial world and 290.79 million in the developing and transition worlds, for a ratio of 1 to 1.7. Even as a percent of penetration the gap is closing-from 41 to 1 in 1992 to 8 to 1 in 2002, according to ITU. Forrester Research predicts that global e-commerce will expand to $6.9 trillion by 2004 and to $12.8 trillion by 2006. Sales on eBay increased 60% over a year to reach $24 billion in 2003. InfoTech Trends predicts that the global B2B market will reach $5.5 trillion in 2004. The Economist says "this market has the potential to become as perfect as it gets."
Approaches to address this challenge	Comments
Even with low-cost Internet devices with direct satellite access and nonproprietary software freely available in public places, massive investments in educational software and multilanguage voice recognition and synthesis will be necessary to make these useful for the poor majority of the world. We should encourage global "collaboratories"; end national telecommunication monopolies; invent incentives to provide training for all; develop solar robot antennas that hover at high altitudes above the weather instead of a proliferation of microwave towers on land; use existing software to block offensive materials; use tele-volunteers to help poorer regions; and redesign the PC to prevent viral damage.
Regional Perspectives	Comments
Africa: ITU estimates mobile telephone subscribers will reach 65 million by the end of 2005, up from an expected 59.7 million at the end of 2004. WiFi and WiMax will extend the reach of telecommunications into Africa. With AIDS devastating professionals, tele-education, tele-medicine, and e-government will be increasingly important. Africa is reported to have 12.25 million Internet users; since many share accounts and public access, however, the number might be considerably higher. Mobile phone connections overtook landline installations in Africa for the past five years; as Internet and mobile phones merge, African Internet usage should accelerate.
Asia and Oceania: Internet and B2B e-commerce grows fastest in this region, according to IDC. If trends continue, China will have 108 million Internet users by the end of 2004. The actual number in China is higher because of users in cyber cafes, schools, and multiuser accounts. The Gartner research group expects outsourcing revenue in India to increase by 65% during 2004, to $3 billion. Japan has the highest Multimedia Message Service adoption rate in the world. Over 80% of Japanese households and businesses are now online. South Korea has the world's highest broadband penetration. Madar Research estimates that by the end of 2005, Arab countries will have 25 million Internet users, which will be about 8% of the population.
Europe: Europe has 218 million Internet users. Forrester Research predicts the online retail market will take 8% of total retail sales by 2009. The Scandinavian region is the 2004 world leader in "e-readiness ranking" done by the Intelligence Unit of The Economist. Information control creates unprecedented, unthinkable challenges for democracy. The Internet is fragmenting shared local beliefs but unifying beliefs globally. IDC forecasts that Linux usage will grow rapidly, accounting for almost a third of shipments in the Nordic countries within five years. The EU will create the European Network and Information Security Agency to counter Internet threats. IDC estimates that in Western Europe B2B e-commerce will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 91% from 2001 to 2005.
Latin America: Joint partnerships made possible by the Internet are crucial for the region's development. Only a minority of people consider the Internet for cultural and educational purposes; most see it in terms of business and entertainment. Internet users in Latin America will reach 60.6 million by 2004, predicts eMarketer. Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico will account for 65% of these.
North America: Internet2 connects 300 organizations at 10 gigabits per second. The United States and Canada have 228 million Internet users. US broadband users increased 42% over the previous year. The United States has more computers than the rest of the world combined. Latino Americans are the fastest-growing online ethnic group, while Asians are making more purchases via the Internet than any other ethnic group, according to The Media Audit.