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12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
 
The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the 2004 State of the Future.

 
General Description
Comments

It is time for an international campaign by all sectors of society to develop a global consensus for action. Transnational organized crime has grown to the point where it is increasingly interfering with the ability of governments to act. Nation-states can be understood as a series of decision points that are vulnerable to the vast amounts of money available to crime groups. TOC's power in one country can be leveraged to increase power in others. The IMF has estimated that as much as 5% of the global economy-$1.8 trillion per year-is laundered through the international financial system. This understates TOC's total income, since not all income needs to be laundered. Diversification in diamonds, barter, and other media outside traditional currency systems could put the real income to well over $2 trillion per year. Colombia and Afghanistan have demonstrated the links among TOC, terrorism, and nation-state power. The vast amount of money amassed by TOC allows its participants to buy the knowledge and technology to create new forms of crime to generate even more profits. In addition to government power, daily international transfers of $2 trillion via computer communications make tempting targets. Production of synthetic psychotropes will also be tempting targets in the future.

The World Bank estimates that over $1 trillion is paid in bribes each year; it is not clear how much of that is paid by TOC. TOC has not surfaced on the world agenda the way property, water, and sustainable development have. OECD's Financial Action Task Force has made 40 recommendations to counter money laundering, and the UN has the Office of Drug Control and Crime Prevention's Global Programme against Money Laundering, the International Narcotics Control Board, the International Group for Anti-Corruption Coordination, and the International Criminal Court; nevertheless, there is no international effort on the scale needed.

 
Approaches to address this challenge
Comments
Information technology could certainly be used to identify sources and target money-laundering locations, create an international agreement to upgrade the recording system for all financial transactions, share information on financial transactions, and coordinate prosecution strategies through an intergovernmental body. The IMF or some UN mechanism might initiate this activity in a special meeting of finance ministers. To make this work, all banks would have to cooperate or be frozen out of the international system. Instant access would have to be available on every financial transaction requested by the international body. Countries would have to give up some sovereignty, as the international body would set the location for prosecution. The international body would authorize the freezing of criminal assets prior to arrest and the transfer of assets after conviction.

The UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (the Palermo Treaty) came into force in September 2003. It calls for a variety of modes for international cooperation to help fight organized crime. Possibly an additional protocol could be established to create an intergovernmental body to complement the Global Programme against Money Laundering, with responsibility for identifying money-laundering locations and setting information traps, identifying top criminals by the amount of money laundered, preparing legal cases, identifying suspect's assets that can be frozen and the readiness of relevant institutions to freeze them, identifying where the criminal is currently located and assessing local authorities' ability to make an arrest, identifying the best country in which to prosecute the particular case, and determining the readiness of local courts to move immediately. When everything is ready, this new intergovernmental body would execute all the orders at the same time to apprehend the criminal, freeze the assets and access, and open the court case. Now, how to provide oversight for such a global organization?

 
Regional Perspectives
Comments
Africa: Nigeria and increasingly South Africa are the regional centers for TOC. Although not as large a factor as in other regions, links between African rebel factions and organized crime groups are increasing, which is potentially exacerbated by millions of AIDS orphans. Corruption has permeated much of African society and is now perhaps the greatest limit to growth in many countries.
 
Asia and Oceania: Human trafficking and sea piracy remain problems in the region. Asian cultures tend to reinforce hierarchical control and loyalty to elders above ethics; hence rigid patterns of crime could be reinforced by societal norms. Decriminalization and state control of drugs, prostitution, and gambling will take the money out of organized crime.
 
Europe: Build on the Southeast European Cooperative Initiative Regional Centre for Combating Trans-border Crime in Romania. Kosovo is now one of the largest channels of smuggling drugs to Europe. If it is not possible to legalize all drugs, then legalize light narcotics and use the tax income to encourage producers to change their profile to useful products or research. Corruption in Western Europe is on the rise, making it easier for organized crime to grow and build bridges to Eastern Europe. Organized crime controls 65% of Russia's GDP, making it the number one security threat to the country. Some say that crime may be a natural part of economic liberalization, as it was in the United States in the late 1800s and early 1900s (although then the scale was much smaller, there were no jet planes, Internet, or weapons of mass destruction, and countries were not being taken over). The task is to find a compromise between corruption and honesty in the process of privatization and concentration of capital.
 
Latin America: Reduce the opportunities for profiting from undue government regulations that constitute incentives for corruption. The region is the sole producer of cocaine. Organized crime offered to pay Bolivia's national debt to have a free hand in that country. Parts of Colombia the size of Switzerland have already been turned over to organized crime. Few have the courage to fight it, saying that eventually the networks will become legal corporations, but it could also mean they become the political power of the region.
 
North America: Would equal numbers of women in senior management positions reduce TOC? Countries must be held accountable for corporations that are involved in criminal activities in their own and other countries. Organized crime should be treated as a national security threat on a par with a strong military threat. Serious change will require a global movement led by activist organizations such as Transparency International backed by reformist politicians, professional organizations, and unions. Governments should legalize "victimless crime" such as drugs and gambling to reduce the cash flow of organized crime. There is a new generation of criminals in the region who are anonymous in cyberspace.
 

Additional Comments:
 
 
 
 



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