Global Challenges-14

Millennium Project
- Global Challenges - 14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the 2004 State of the Future.

Elements of this challenge that relate to sustainable development, water, information, disease, energy science, and technologies can be found in challenges 1, 2, 6, 8, and 13 respectively. Also, see the 2025 Science & Technology management Policy Scenarios at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/scenarios/st-scenarios.html and/or in Chapter 5 of the 2004 State of the Future.

General Description Comments

Most people do not appreciate how fast science and technology will change over the next 25 years. The synergies and confluence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science-or NBIC-will dramatically increase individual and group performance and the support systems of civilization. NBIC products will range from biometrics to counterterrorism systems, from restoring brain functioning and eyesight to increased longevity. E-textile cloths with nanotech threads of antenna, photovoltaics, computation, sensors, ultrasound, and thermal regulation will be worn as a personal early warning and response system. Laser flashes on the femtosecond (10 at -15 of a second) timescale have tracked atoms rearranging themselves during chemical reactions.
The factors that caused previous changes-such as computer chips, telecommunications bandwidth, new materials, genomics and biotechnology, computational sciences, international standards, and collaborative software-are themselves changing at accelerating rates, with no end in sight. People are surprised to learn that we can see proteins embedded in a cell's membrane tens of billionths of a meter across, that organic transistors with a single-molecule channel length have been developed, that gene variants for schizophrenia, depression, and other mental diseases have been discovered, or that light has been stopped by a yttrium-silica crystal and then released and has been slowed in gas and then accelerated, promising vast improvements in computer capacity. Robot surgery has begun clinical trials, rats' movements have been controlled by remote devices communicating with the animals' brains, an electrocorticographic grid placed on the head of a player using only the signals from the brains has played computer games, monkeys can control a robotic arm with their thoughts, and nearly 13% of humanity is online.

Approaches to address this challenge Comments

Over the next 25 years NBIC approaches will integrate sciences, engineering, medicine, and business to change the very nature of R&D. They will accelerate efficiency, create better medicines and more nutritious foods using less land and water, and improve learning and mental health. Artificial intelligence with quantum computing will increase collective intelligence, and space sciences will open new technological and social frontiers.
Meanwhile, the risks of some new technologies and scientific developments are enormous, unprecedented, and, many argue, unpredictable. The risks are associated with unanticipated consequences of frontier research or applications and with new weapons applications. (See CD Chapter 5 for global 2025 science and technology scenarios.) The InterAcademy Panel, a worldwide network of 90 science academies, is increasing access to S&T information around the world; Japan will sponsor the Global Forum on S&T and Society; MIT offers its education materials free on the Internet. Yet more S&T-savvy political and media decisionmakers are needed, who in turn need some kind of international S&T organization to bring together the world's knowledge in a more user-friendly fashion, consisting of data banks of information from many organizations. Such a system could illustrate risks, opportunities, and a range of speculation on items on a cumulative basis. International scientific assessments of biotech and molecular nanotechnology should be conducted, and whatever is found feasible and desirable should be developed on a fast-tracked international basis to address many of the other Global Challenges. Global "collaboratories" via Internet2 should be fostered for NBIC, and transcultural research should be focused on how to improve the human condition. Basic research and development of new theoretical principles must be supported to provide the growing pool of knowledge from which applied science draws its insights.

Regional Perspectives Comments

Africa: It will take very serious and conscious efforts on behalf of Africans to make the region part of an integrated global system. Many transfers of technology will be needed from other nations, but production and development should be done in Africa as much as possible to adapt to local conditions.

Asia and Oceania: China and India are pursuing genetic engineering to increase food supply at lower cost. Societal issues remain unresolved because of a lack of awareness of the benefits of investments in R&D. The region should establish a system linking government, university, and private-sector systems to focus on S&T breakthroughs. In the South Pacific, many governments are pursuing economic rationalist models in which the marketplace will determine the need for S&T. The likelihood of breakthroughs will thus be diminished because strategic research is being neglected in favor of applied research directed at specific problems. Progress in Japanese R&D in robots could help address projected labor shortages.

Europe: The mapping of the human genome may be a conceptual breakthrough comparable to the periodic table. To address this challenge, Europe should seek a balance between social and natural sciences and expose scientists and technologists to formal measures of public accountability, include ethical thought about NBIC, and continue foresight programs and communicate their findings to the public. The EU aims to increase spending on R&D and innovation to 3% of GDP by 2010. The needs of transition countries with obsolete technologies include scientific and technology know-how transfer; strategic planning; increased subsidies for the sciences; expanded orientation toward the sciences; and support of the information society, digital economy, Internet, and e-commerce.

Latin America: Biotechnology will feed people, cure disease, and eliminate malnutrition. Yet in Mexico the largest tortilla factory declared it would not buy any more genetically modified corn and Brazil has recently eliminated its genetically modified soy by replacing it with traditional soy, so as to become the world supplier of non-genetically-modified products. Many Latin American countries party to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety are very active in promoting the transgenic benefits as well as the precautionary measurements.

North America: The phenomenon of special interest politics has grown from a nuisance to a disaster in US funding of fundamental science and engineering. Is there certain knowledge so essential that free use should override patent law? Rigid control of S&T can drive research underground or overseas. Connect scientific, technological, and ethical education. Genomic information is being disseminated worldwide as it is being discovered, speeding the day when inherited diseases can be prevented. Some believe that North America needs to "digest" these new technologies, not accelerate use of unassessed technologies. Of unique significance for the region is its wealth of innovative/intellectual capacity. The Tech Museum in San Jose offers $250,000 in prizes for technological innovations to benefit humanity (see <www.thetech.org/events/techawards>). Technological development could become a competitive "sport" (e.g., MIT's robot competitions) internally and internationally in order to generate the kind of excitement that produced phenomenal discoveries and lightning-speed developments during World War II and the cold war, but without the destructive component.

Additional Comments:

General Description	Comments
Most people do not appreciate how fast science and technology will change over the next 25 years. The synergies and confluence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science-or NBIC-will dramatically increase individual and group performance and the support systems of civilization. NBIC products will range from biometrics to counterterrorism systems, from restoring brain functioning and eyesight to increased longevity. E-textile cloths with nanotech threads of antenna, photovoltaics, computation, sensors, ultrasound, and thermal regulation will be worn as a personal early warning and response system. Laser flashes on the femtosecond (10 at -15 of a second) timescale have tracked atoms rearranging themselves during chemical reactions. The factors that caused previous changes-such as computer chips, telecommunications bandwidth, new materials, genomics and biotechnology, computational sciences, international standards, and collaborative software-are themselves changing at accelerating rates, with no end in sight. People are surprised to learn that we can see proteins embedded in a cell's membrane tens of billionths of a meter across, that organic transistors with a single-molecule channel length have been developed, that gene variants for schizophrenia, depression, and other mental diseases have been discovered, or that light has been stopped by a yttrium-silica crystal and then released and has been slowed in gas and then accelerated, promising vast improvements in computer capacity. Robot surgery has begun clinical trials, rats' movements have been controlled by remote devices communicating with the animals' brains, an electrocorticographic grid placed on the head of a player using only the signals from the brains has played computer games, monkeys can control a robotic arm with their thoughts, and nearly 13% of humanity is online.
Approaches to address this challenge	Comments
Over the next 25 years NBIC approaches will integrate sciences, engineering, medicine, and business to change the very nature of R&D. They will accelerate efficiency, create better medicines and more nutritious foods using less land and water, and improve learning and mental health. Artificial intelligence with quantum computing will increase collective intelligence, and space sciences will open new technological and social frontiers. Meanwhile, the risks of some new technologies and scientific developments are enormous, unprecedented, and, many argue, unpredictable. The risks are associated with unanticipated consequences of frontier research or applications and with new weapons applications. (See CD Chapter 5 for global 2025 science and technology scenarios.) The InterAcademy Panel, a worldwide network of 90 science academies, is increasing access to S&T information around the world; Japan will sponsor the Global Forum on S&T and Society; MIT offers its education materials free on the Internet. Yet more S&T-savvy political and media decisionmakers are needed, who in turn need some kind of international S&T organization to bring together the world's knowledge in a more user-friendly fashion, consisting of data banks of information from many organizations. Such a system could illustrate risks, opportunities, and a range of speculation on items on a cumulative basis. International scientific assessments of biotech and molecular nanotechnology should be conducted, and whatever is found feasible and desirable should be developed on a fast-tracked international basis to address many of the other Global Challenges. Global "collaboratories" via Internet2 should be fostered for NBIC, and transcultural research should be focused on how to improve the human condition. Basic research and development of new theoretical principles must be supported to provide the growing pool of knowledge from which applied science draws its insights.
Regional Perspectives	Comments
Africa: It will take very serious and conscious efforts on behalf of Africans to make the region part of an integrated global system. Many transfers of technology will be needed from other nations, but production and development should be done in Africa as much as possible to adapt to local conditions.
Asia and Oceania: China and India are pursuing genetic engineering to increase food supply at lower cost. Societal issues remain unresolved because of a lack of awareness of the benefits of investments in R&D. The region should establish a system linking government, university, and private-sector systems to focus on S&T breakthroughs. In the South Pacific, many governments are pursuing economic rationalist models in which the marketplace will determine the need for S&T. The likelihood of breakthroughs will thus be diminished because strategic research is being neglected in favor of applied research directed at specific problems. Progress in Japanese R&D in robots could help address projected labor shortages.
Europe: The mapping of the human genome may be a conceptual breakthrough comparable to the periodic table. To address this challenge, Europe should seek a balance between social and natural sciences and expose scientists and technologists to formal measures of public accountability, include ethical thought about NBIC, and continue foresight programs and communicate their findings to the public. The EU aims to increase spending on R&D and innovation to 3% of GDP by 2010. The needs of transition countries with obsolete technologies include scientific and technology know-how transfer; strategic planning; increased subsidies for the sciences; expanded orientation toward the sciences; and support of the information society, digital economy, Internet, and e-commerce.
Latin America: Biotechnology will feed people, cure disease, and eliminate malnutrition. Yet in Mexico the largest tortilla factory declared it would not buy any more genetically modified corn and Brazil has recently eliminated its genetically modified soy by replacing it with traditional soy, so as to become the world supplier of non-genetically-modified products. Many Latin American countries party to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety are very active in promoting the transgenic benefits as well as the precautionary measurements.
North America: The phenomenon of special interest politics has grown from a nuisance to a disaster in US funding of fundamental science and engineering. Is there certain knowledge so essential that free use should override patent law? Rigid control of S&T can drive research underground or overseas. Connect scientific, technological, and ethical education. Genomic information is being disseminated worldwide as it is being discovered, speeding the day when inherited diseases can be prevented. Some believe that North America needs to "digest" these new technologies, not accelerate use of unassessed technologies. Of unique significance for the region is its wealth of innovative/intellectual capacity. The Tech Museum in San Jose offers $250,000 in prizes for technological innovations to benefit humanity (see <www.thetech.org/events/techawards>). Technological development could become a competitive "sport" (e.g., MIT's robot competitions) internally and internationally in order to generate the kind of excitement that produced phenomenal discoveries and lightning-speed developments during World War II and the cold war, but without the destructive component.