Global Challenges Assesment

On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in a study to improve understanding of the major global challenges over the next 25 years. The results will be used to update and improve the 2004 State of the Future.

The Millennium Project is a global participatory system to collect, synthesize, and feedback judgments on an on-going basis about prospects for the human condition. Its annual State of the Future,Futures Research Methodology, and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions. The Millennium Project is funded by its sponsors and its research supported by the Nodes around the world.

No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants in the 2004 State of the Future.

A second round, based on the responses to the enclosed questionnaire, will follow in two or three months. Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the Millennium Project by 10 January 2004. If you prefer to respons off-line, you can download an Ms Word (.doc) version of this questionnaire and than email your response as an attached file.(If a dialog box asks for your authentification - user name and password- just click the "Cancel" button)

We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn, Director, Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, Millennium Project

Instructions

Although this questionnaire appears to be quite long, you are asked to complete only as little or as much as you choose, concentrating in areas about which you are expert or interested.

No attributions will be made, but for demographic analysis please give some information about yourself:

Name:

Email address:

My primary employment is in:

Government International Organization Corporation (Business) NGO University Independent Consultant Other

If other, please specify

Country

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This first round questionnaire asks for your judgments about the 15 global challenges previously identified by the Millennium Project. It has three parts:

First, you are invited to consider how one might tell whether or not a challenge has been mastered--that is, what signs would there be that sufficient progress has been made to reduce the high priority currently associated with the challenge? You are also invited to comment on the challenge(s) of your choice, indicating how the description of the challenge might be improved.
In the second part, you will be invited to consider a number of quantitative variables used in past work to identify the changing state of the world and to estimate the best and worst values you might expect for these variables in the next ten years.
In the third part, you will be asked to list future developments, which, if they occurred, could have dramatic affects on the variables listed in Part 2. In all instances, examples are provided for each variable and you are invited to add to the list.

After results of this round are collated, they will be sent to you in a second round that will explore the most significant issues in further depth.

Note: Complete descriptions of each of the 15 Global Challenges are available on the CD-ROM accompanying the 2003 State of the Future. This source includes a more extensive description, additional comments made by the participants in the study, interviews with policy-makers, regional perspectives, results of interviews with decisionmakers in many regions throughout the world, suggested actions to address the challenges, and a possible set of indicators that could measure progress on the challenge.

PART 1

Please comment on the challenge(s) of your choice and suggest how the description of the challenge might be improved. Then please provide your judgment about measures that would indicate that the challenge(s) have been mastered.

Global Challenges

By clicking on the links below you will be directed to a short overview of EACH challenge. You might want to read the description for your own information, but you are also invited to suggest changes/additions to the description of each challenge that you are expert in and is of interest to you.

1. Sustainable Development: How can sustainable development be achieved for all?
2. Water: How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
3. Population and Resources: How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
4. Democratization: How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
5. Lon-Term Perspectives: How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
6. Information Technology: How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
7. Rich-Poor Gap: How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
8. Health: How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
9. Capacity to Decide: How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?
10. Peace and Conflict: How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
11. Status of Women: How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?
12. Transnational Crime: How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
13. Energy: How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
14. Science and Technology: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
15. Global Ethics: How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

The leadership necessary for sustainable development has not yet emerged. Although many at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) called sustainable development the most important goal for uniting humanity and its institutions, the Summit did not produce compelling policy directions sufficient to change international decisionmaking. Total fossil fuel use over the next 50 years is expected to triple compared with usage over the last 50 years. Already atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which for 400,000 years fluctuated between 180 and 280 parts per million (ppm), has reached 350 ppm. Only human activity can explain this change, says the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1987. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates a 2.5–10.4 degrees Fahrenheit warming by century’s end, which could raise sea levels by 34 inches, changing human coastal settlements and melting the polar ice cap. Glaciers are already receding worldwide. Global temperature changes threaten entire ecosystems.

Humanity may have consumed more natural resources since World War II than in all of history prior to that time. Half the world’s forests and 25% of the coral reefs are gone. Half of the estimated 3–100 million species (known and still unknown) could be gone by 2100. The interdependence of economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our financial, economic, environmental, and social behavior, the next 200 years could be difficult. Next to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), unsustainable growth may well be the greatest threat to the future of humanity. Yet without sustainable growth, billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilization will collapse.

We should review and implement the results of the WSSD as much as possible; resolve conflicts between corporations’ short-term profits and long-term sustainability; establish an environmental crimes international intelligence and police unit; create definitions and measurements for commonly applied tax incentives and labels for more environmentally friendly products; abolish environmentally inefficient subsidies; include environmental costs in the pricing of natural resources and products; invest in socially responsible businesses; spread the environmental standards ISO 14000 and 14001 to more countries and companies; create an international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies such as carbon sequestration or space solar power and acquiring the rights to innovate “green” technologies; declare key habitats off-limits for human development; develop ecologically based agriculture to reduce the large consumption of water, energy, and other material inputs per crop; consider the establishment of a World Environment Organization with powers like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and encourage synergy between environmental movements and human rights groups to make clean air, water, and land a human right; and demonstrate how to change complacency and consumption while increasing efficiency and improving living standards.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

PART 1B Please provide your judgment about measures that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered.
How will we know when progress on this challenge has been sufficient to reduce its priority? Please provide your judgments about the importance of the suggestions below and add others in the space provided. Please use the following scale to rate the items:

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

1.1 Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row.

1.2 GDP increases while greenhouse gas emissions decreases for five years in a row.

1.3 The global acreage in forests increases for five years.

1.4 Average calories per capita per day exceed 2000 and the number of hungry people diminishes by half.

1.5 Proven natural resources increase by 30%.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

Water tables are continuing to fall on every continent. Agricultural land is becoming brackish worldwide, and groundwater aquifers are being polluted. About 40% of humanity lives in the 260 major international water basins shared by more than two countries; hence the potential for conflict increases with population growth and water demand. Water systems are vulnerable to industrial catastrophe, agricultural pollution, and terrorist attack. Agriculture accounts for 70% of all human usage of fresh water, and according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), water for agriculture needs to increase 60% to feed an additional 2 billion people by 2030, which could cause urban-rural water conflicts. We have to produce more food with less water. There is enough water if we cooperate, which history shows does occur even between people in conflict and has led to cooperation in other areas.

Throughout the world, 1.2 billion people in 2000 did not have access to safe drinking water and 2.4 billion lacked adequate sanitary systems. About 80% of all diseases in the developing world are water-related; many are related to poor management of human excreta. According to the U.N. Environment Programme’s Global Environment Outlook 3, half the world could face water shortages by 2032; today 450 million people in 29 countries live in water-short locations. There are also ecological water needs to keep our life-support systems healthy.
Halving the number of people without safe drinking water by 2015 will require 340,000 more water connections and 460,000 sanitation connections every day from now to 2015. This is the International Year for Fresh Water, which is helping to move water up the global policy agenda and getting leaders to realize that business as usual will eventually lead to world water crises—causing mass migrations, disease, and wars.

The World Panel on Financing Water Infrastructure estimated that the $80 billion spent annually on water systems for developing and transition nations will have to reach $180 billion in 20–25 years. Meanwhile, more empirical studies are needed to resolve the mixed reviews of privatization strategies for water supply.

The water situation can be improved greatly through changing agricultural practices to get more crop per drop of water: better manage rain-fed irrigation, selectively introduce water pricing, add drip irrigation and precision agriculture, invest in watershed management, integrate water management plans, and develop plants that are drought-hearty and more brackish-tolerant. Large investments also have to go into desalination, household sanitation, wastewater treatment, reforestation, water storage, and treatment of industrial effluents in multipurpose water schemes. Water can also be conserved by using animal stem cells to produce meat tissue (without the need to make the animal) and by increasing vegetarianism around the world. Although R&D to bring down the cost of desalination and improve rain-fed agricultural management has to be done, the bulk of the solution will be the support and replication of community-scale projects around the world. Finally, countries should have national and regional water plans, which may need treaties and cooperative agreements to manage water rights.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

PART 1B Please provide your judgment about measures that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered.
How will we know when progress on this challenge has been sufficient to reduce its priority? Please provide your judgments about the importance of the suggestions below and add others in the space provided. Please use the following scale to rate the items:

2.1 The number of people without clean water diminishes by half.

2.2 The percentage of water used in agriculture drops for five years in a row.

2.3 The number of people suffering from water borne diseases drops by half.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

Although the rate of population growth continues to slow and the efficiencies in resource deliveries from energy to food will increase, the sheer rising numbers of people and their demands will be difficult to meet over the next 50 years. People are living longer and are increasingly urban, and our numbers are growing fastest where people can least afford the necessities of life. The current population of 6.3 billion is forecasted to grow to 8.9 billion by 2050, 98% of whom are expected to live in the poorer countries. Almost 40% of the world lives in either China or India, where industrial growth is accelerating the use of resources and impacts on the environment. Nearly half the world lives in cities on 2% of the land, consuming about 75% of the resources and producing about the same percent of the pollution. About 3% of the world’s population are migrants.

Natural resources to support all this growth are shrinking. The UN Environment Programme estimates that nature’s current value to the global economy is about $36 trillion a year and that 40% of the economy of the developing world is directly based on biodiversity, yet these assets are being destroyed.

More than 1 billion people live in slums and squatter communities, 25 countries are facing food emergencies, and about one out of every three children under five (150 million) is malnourished. The urban population is growing at 60 million a year: in one generation, nearly 3 billion city dwellers will grow to 5 billion, making urbanization one of the most powerful trends today. There are 19 cities with 10 million or more people; by 2015 there could be 26 such megacities. Sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and sanitation will have to reach people, or increased migrations, conflicts, and disease seem inevitable.

The UN estimates that by 2050 there will be more people over 60 than children under 15. The number of people who are 60 or older is expected to quadruple to 2 billion by 2050, putting stress on retirement and health care systems worldwide, especially as life expectancy continues to increase as medical and social advances are discovered. As of this year, no industrial country has a fertility rate at or above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. To reduce the economic burden on the younger generations, retirement communities and individuals could experiment with Internet-based businesses to earn income in the emerging knowledge economy.

The factors that reduced population growth in the developing world still need to be reinforced. These include increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality, empowerment and education of women, urbanization, improved and inexpensive contraceptives, and family planning.

FAO estimates that food production has to increase 60% over the next 20 years, irrigated land will have to increase by 22%, and water withdrawals by 14%. Better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, plus genetic engineering for higher-yielding, drought-tolerant crop varieties will be needed. Currently, agriculture uses 80% of arable land in developing countries, of which 20% is irrigated. Without serious water changes, 20% of developing countries will face water shortages within a generation, forcing mass migrations. The world demand for animal protein will accelerate as the middle class increases, triggering massive investments into genetically modified food, aquaculture, and stem cells for meat production. Water and energy strategies for the growing population are discussed in Challenges 2 and 13.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

3.1 Annual growth in world’s population drops to less than 30 million (now it’s 80 million).

3.2 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) drops from 50.2 currently to 25.

3.3 Mineral and energy reserves increase annually by at least 2%.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

Most people continue to live in democracies and partly free conditions rather than in dictatorships. Freedom House recognizes 121 countries with electoral democracies, of which 89 have an environment in which there is broad respect for human rights and a stable rule of law. They also rated press freedom among 193 countries and found 78 free, 47 partly free, and 68 not free. Eleven of these countries have fewer freedoms than before, while two have more. Nevertheless, looking over the past several decades, democratization is a global long-term trend. Since democracies tend not to fight each other, and since humanitarian crises are far more likely to occur within authoritarian regimes, the trend toward democracy should lead to a more peaceful future.

Unfortunately, the emergence of democracy is not a smooth process. Many recent democracies have not consolidated their democratic institutions and cultural changes. During the transition, many people can lose their income and social status. New democracies must address previous abuses of power to earn citizen loyalty, yet the pursuit of this justice can increase social discord and slow the process of reconciliation and democratic transition. Young democracies emerging from authoritarian regimes need long-term economic stability, some experience with pluralism, and a majority of pro-democratic actors to become genuine democracies. Dramatic changes like multiparty elections, a free press, written constitutions, legal reforms, and an independent judiciary do not simultaneously or automatically create a culture of democracy with citizen responsibilities.

Increasing sophistication and interaction among information technology, marketing, competitive intelligence, organized crime, and the potentials of information warfare raise the potential for the manipulation of information. Freedom of choice—inherent to democracy—implies judgment based on reliable information. Hence, the development of methods to counter information manipulation will be important for continued democratization in the future.
The Internet has increased the ability for citizen feedback on public issues through e-government and other electronic means. As a result, governments are expected to become more accountable, transparent, and responsive to their citizens.

Although making development assistance dependent on progress toward democracy has helped in some countries, a genuine democracy is achieved when the people—not an external organization—get the government to be accountable to them. Genuine democracy is not only a set of institutions, it is also a mental attitude and a habit of behavior. Different areas may require different political systems at different times. However, all will be improved by increasing education, transparency, accountability, media access, initiatives that focus on corruption, and participation rather than waiting for others to solve problems. In addition, maintenance of “safety nets” and discussions among international political peers about successful transition strategies in the areas of the rule of law, respect for human rights, free media, tolerance of political opposition, free elections (visibility of UN Electoral Units where necessary), and an independent civil society all help develop the culture of democracy.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

4.1 Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free diminishes to less than 10%.

4.2 Voter participation in most democracies exceeds 60% in most elections.

4.3 Number of armed conflicts (1000 or more deaths per year) diminishes by half.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

Globalization will increasingly force policy-makers to think in a larger context. International responses to SARS, the September 11th attacks, and the Space Shuttle Columbia explosion have increased global thinking, but their impacts seem short-lived and have not had the same impact on long-term thinking. Yet the completion of the Human Genome Project, evolution of the WTO and NATO, development of a European Union constitution, management of the International Space Station, and the globalization of the news media and Internet—all relatively unthinkable just 25 years ago—are some of the factors that demonstrate the acceleration, complexity, and globalization of change today, which in turn increases the need for global, long-term perspectives.

Unfortunately, the daily complexities of politics and the need to manage current problems still leave little time to consider the bigger picture. Narrow, short-term thinking is reinforced in all sectors of society. Corporate stockholders want quick profits, forcing corporate leaders to focus on actions that can improve the next quarter’s profits; government leaders give priority to immediate issues to keep in power; NGO leaders who may look at the longer term often tend to do so only from the perspective of a single issue; leaders of international organizations also tend to focus on one issue and can be overwhelmed by the difficulty of addressing multiple issues on a global basis; and news executives are driven by daily deadlines and the need to keep people’s attention by emphasizing the drama of the moment. As a result, decisionmakers feel little pressure to consider global long-term perspectives. Nevertheless, long-range goals like landing on the moon or eradicating smallpox that were considered impossible did excite many people who went beyond selfish, short-term interests to great achievements. An international assessment of such goals is in Chapter 5 on this CD.

The eight UN Millennium Development Goals could be the basis for eight international coalitions, each composed of the governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and international organizations that are really willing to commit the resources and talent to address the goal. Since the annual calculation of the global State of the Future Index in Chapter 2 is based on indicators that relate to progress on global challenges, a 10-year forecast could imply that decisionmaking is increasingly taking global long-term perspectives into account. If national SOFIs were constructed and used in policymaking, then in order to make the index rise, national decisionmakers would have to pursue policies that address the longer term. We also need to create participatory processes informed by futures research, increase training and education courses in futures thinking, convert futures research methods into teaching methods to future-orient instruction, and organize data for easier use in foresight and policy analysis. Decisionmakers should be trained in futures research methods and required to communicate the longer-term implications of their decisions. This could lead to the use of futures methods in all forms of policymaking to develop, communicate, and revise future visions interactively among all sectors of society.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

5.1 Long-term global strategic planning processes established in 50 countries.

5.2 Consequences of high risk projects are routinely considered before they are initiated.

5.3 Foresight functions are a routine part of most governments.

5.4 National State of the Future Indexes used in 50 countries.

5.5 Standing Committees for the Future in 50 parliaments.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Chose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

In 2002, there were more Internet users in Asia and the Pacific than in the United States and Canada (187 million to 183 million). By the end of 2003, China could have 120 million users. Fifteen years ago few people had even heard of the Internet. Today it is the most powerful force in history for globalization, democratization, economic growth, education, international management of everything from controlling the spread of SARS to accelerating scientific collaboration, and new organizational forms that are changing the nature of governance. Fifteen years from now the majority of the world may be connected to the “planetary nervous system,” making cyberspace an unprecedented medium for civilization. This new distribution of the means of production in the knowledge economy is cutting through old hierarchical controls in politics, economics, and finance. It is becoming a self-organizing mechanism for an emerging and collective computer-human intelligence.

Mobile phones outnumbered fixed ones for the first time in 2003. With the merger of Internet capabilities and mobile phones, swarms of people can quickly form and disband, coordinate actions, and share information from stock market tips to meme epidemics.
International Data Corp. (IDC) expects that in 2007, Internet users will have access to, download, and share information that is equivalent to the entire Library of Congress more than 64,000 times over, every day. Xerox PARC estimates that a $100 computer in 2022 will have the capability of 500,000 MIPS (million instructions/sec) (today’s NASA and Central Intelligence Agency combined), 1 terabyte of RAM, and 2 terabytes of disk (equivalent of the entire World Wide Web today).

eMarketer predicts that business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce will almost double over the next year from $1.4 trillion to $2.7 trillion in 2004, while Forrester forecasts that global e-commerce will reach $6.9 trillion by 2004. The Economist estimates global information technology services will be $1 trillion by 2008. Unfortunately, the Internet is also a new medium for the worst of human motives and makes encrypted communications available to terrorists and criminals. Threats of information warfare, cyber-terrorism, financial market vulnerability, fraud, loss of cultural diversity, and knowledge gaps all have to be addressed. The year 2003 has become the worst ever for verified overt digital attacks—with 91,088 attacks against online servers through June compared with 87,525 for the whole of 2002, according to mi2g Ltd. IDC estimates that the intrusion-detection market will quadruple to $2 billion in 2005.

Meanwhile, the digital divide between the industrial and developing worlds is closing rapidly, falling from 40 to 1 in 1995 to 17 to 1 in 2001. Nielsen//NetRatings estimates that 20 nations accounted for more than 90% of active Internet users in 2002. Open Source software is a low-cost option to replace proprietary software and create alternatives to market monopolies, increasing competition in the market, and computers that use Linux operating systems cost less.

We could make Internet access a right of citizens; provide cheap computers with nonproprietary software in public places; encourage global collaboratories; end national telecommunication monopolies; invent incentives to provide training for all; create low-cost Internet devices with direct satellite access; develop solar robot antennas that hover at high altitudes above the weather instead of a proliferation of microwave towers on land; use existing software to block offensive materials; and use tele-volunteers to help poorer regions.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

6.1 Cost of access to Internet becomes essentially free to users.

6.2 Basic tele-medicine is commonplace, making best medical practices available everywhere.

6.3 Basic tele-education is free and available universally.

6.4 10% of the employment of the developing world is Internet-based.

6.5 Half the world has hand-held Internet access.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Chose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

The continued economic growth in India and China is a major engine for the reduction of world poverty, because 66% of the people living on just $1 a day are in Asia, while 26% live in sub-Saharan Africa and 6.7% in Latin America. Although significant growth has occurred in some developing countries, income per capita has been dropping steadily over the past 30 years in poorer countries. Yet in absolute numbers, the number of people living on less than $1 a day has been falling over the past 20 years, even while population growth added over a billion people. The rich-poor gap is also getting wider within richer countries.
The world economy has grown from $5 trillion to over $35 trillion during the last 50 years. Over the last 40 years, life expectancy in developing countries has increased from 46 to 64 years, infant mortality rates have been reduced by 50%, the proportion of children enrolled in primary school has increased by more than 80%, and access to safe drinking water and sanitation has doubled. Yet without major policy interventions, the world could average 2.5 billion people living on less than $2/day over the next 25 years. In addition to the moral implications, the disparity in wealth could lead to increased migration of the poor to richer regions, resulting in conflict. Remittances have now become a major source of foreign currency in poor regions.

According to the World Bank, countries that are free account for $26.8 trillion of the world’s annual GDP and represent 89% of global economic activity. By contrast, partly free countries account for $1.5 trillion in output (5%), and countries that are not free produce $1.7 trillion (6%).

International meetings have recommended improved international financial governance, increased trade, debt relief, national economic policy reforms, mobilization of domestic financial resources, reduction of corruption, and the creation of partnerships among development actors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now allows countries to go bankrupt to negotiate new agreements.

Ethical market economies are encouraged when people have a “level playing field” guaranteed by an honest judicial system and by governments that provide political stability, a chance to participate in local development decisions, business incentives to comply with social and environmental goals, and access to land, capital, and information. Since capital flows to profit potential, ethical activities have to be shown to be profitable. Unfortunately, corruption and organized crime are still major impediments to development.

Richer nations should cut agricultural subsidies and open their markets. We have to replace welfare attitudes with entrepreneurial spirit, reinforced by expanded microcredit mechanisms coupled with technical assistance. Entrepreneurial skills and business math should be integrated in primary and secondary education. Policies should encourage employee ownership, use of the Internet to gain access to world markets, observance of standard central bank rules, and pursuit of macro policies that accelerate economic growth, balance trade-offs between incentives and sanctions for more ethical trade, design a network of regional and subregional organizations to support monetary and financial management, create rules to tame international currency markets, start incorporating alternative progress indicators, and support “global partnerships for development” as collaborations between high-income countries and those with less industrial and entrepreneurial cultures.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

7.1.Number of people living on less than $2 per day drops by 75%.

7.2. Unemployment in all countries remains below 6%.

7.3. Market economy abuses and corruption by companies are intensely prosecuted.

7.4. Development gap - by all definitions - reduces 8 out of 10 years.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

Rapid and unprecedented international cooperation to contain SARS in early 2003 constituted a step in the evolution of global systems necessary to address this question. However, silent, slower-acting diseases like HIV/AIDS have not generated the same systemic response. Over the past 30 years, AIDS has killed 22 million people. Today 42 million are living with HIV/AIDS. During 2002, 5 million more people were infected and 3.1 million people died of AIDS. Although AIDS is the leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa, it is now spreading more rapidly in Eastern Europe and Central/Southern Asia. The yearly cost of antiretroviral medicine available to some in developing countries has fallen to $500–700 per person, but Brazil uses a quarter of its budget to produce nelfinavir domestically and give it free to its citizens. Meanwhile, bioterrorism is emerging as a threat on a par with nuclear war.

Infectious diseases cause about 30% of deaths worldwide. In the last 20 years, more than 30 new and highly infectious diseases have been identified, such as Ebola, AIDS, and SARS; for many there is no treatment, cure, or vaccine. Furthermore, 20 known strains of diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria have developed resistance to antibiotics due to the widespread use and misuse of these drugs. And old diseases such as cholera, plague, dengue fever, meningitis, hemorrhagic fever, diphtheria, and yellow fever have reappeared as public health threats after years of decline. Immunization rates are declining in low-income and middle-income countries.

These developments are compounded by factors such as the rapid increase in international air travel and large populations who are malnourished and undereducated, living in unhealthy conditions. The globalization of trade, as well as recent changes in the production, handling, and processing of food and breeder stock, has heightened the risk of food-borne diseases. Activities such as deforestation, tourism, conflict, climate change, and migration into remote habitats have increased exposure to disease.

The response to SARS has shown that even without a vaccine it is possible to control a disease by preventing infection through early detection and accurate reporting, prompt isolation of those infected, and quarantine of those they contacted. Governments should increase their support for the World Health Organization (WHO) network of collaborating laboratories to create a global surveillance system and a rapid international medical deployment capacity to respond to outbreaks of infectious disease, and they should also help expand WHO’s vaccines program. Governments and donors have pledged more than $2.1 billion to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis & Malaria. The recent genomic sequencing of both Anopheles gambiae, a mosquito vector, and the Plasmodium falciparum organism could lead to a vaccine and cure.

AIDS awareness programs will have to change sex norms. Women’s rights programs related to AIDS should be expanded. Funding should be increased for safe water supply, advanced generations of antibiotics, understanding the relationship among disease, ecology, and genetics, and applications for tele-medicine and tele-health. In the future, according to a 2002 article in The Lancet, strategies that target global disease indicators (childhood and maternal underweight, unsafe sex, high blood pressure, tobacco and alcohol use) can provide substantial and underestimated public health gains.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

PART 1B Please provide your judgment about measures that would indicate that this challenge have been mastered.
How will we know when progress on this challenge has been sufficient to reduce its priority? Please provide your judgments about the importance of the suggestions below and add others in the space provided. Please use the following scale to rate the items:

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

8.1 Annual AIDS deaths tops out at less than 4 million per year.

8.2 Life Expectancy grows to 75 years with little disparity among nations.

8.3 Effective global disease detection and therapy systems are in place.

8.4 Vaccines & medicines for new diseases are usually developed within one-month.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

Because the unprecedented speed of change makes people unsure about the future and because globalization is challenging philosophical and religious certainty, people are unsure of the basis on which to make decisions. The sheer number and intricacy of choices seems to be growing beyond our abilities to analyze and make decisions. Democratization and interactive media are adding to the number of people involved in decisionmaking, increasing complexity and making closure more difficult. As decisionmaking to address global challenges becomes too complex, it will appear chaotic until new systems emerge. In the meantime, we know the world is increasingly complex and that the most serious challenges are global in nature, yet we don’t seem to know how to improve and deploy appropriate management techniques or Internet-based management tools and concepts fast enough to get on top of the situation.

Since no government or other institution acting alone can address any of the global challenges in this chapter, transinstitutional decisionmaking has to be developed. Common platforms are needed that connect governments, corporations, NGOs, universities, and international organizations in collaborative decisionmaking. Self-selection and self-organization of volunteers around the world via Web sites is a new strategy to increase transparency of public issues and to participate in decision processes. New participatory processes and other emergent transinstitutional systems using the Internet could become informal decision-making systems that conventional powers ratify. Information pollution or “noise” in policy information could be reduced by software for knowledge visualization and mapping to help see at a glance the situation and various options.

The Internet is raising the pressure for all systems to be available worldwide 24 hours a day seven days a week. E-government systems are growing rapidly to help automate administrivia and facilitate public participation, but they also create new vulnerabilities to manipulation by organized crime and to cyber-terrorism. UN organizations are the only trusted decisionmaking system for many people around the world. Yet these international organizations were designed for decisionmaking among governments, and have not synergistically evolved with private corporations and NGOs.

Many people believe it is possible to shape the future rather than simply prepare for a linear extrapolation of the present or a product of chance or fate. Just as efficiency is a key criterion in decisionmaking for industrial economies, wisdom will be a criterion in decisionmaking for successful knowledge economies.

We have to find ways for policymakers of all kinds to take decisionmaking training programs that might include e-government, decision-support software, risk taking and avoidance, advanced concepts in decisionmaking, prioritization processes, applications of cognitive science to decisionmaking, foresight, ways to work with new participatory processes, and collaborative decisionmaking with different institutions.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

PART 1B Please provide your judgment about measures that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered.

How will we know when progress on this challenge has been sufficient to reduce its priority? Please provide your judgments about the importance of the suggestions below and add others in the space provided. Please use the following scale to rate the items:

9.1 A discipline of decision making emerges involving risk, psychology, and social well-being.

9.2 Elected officials are required to be educated and expert in decision making in 50 countries.

9.3 National corporate law modified to recognize Trans-Institutional organizations.

9.4. Polls on public confidence in decisionmakers remains over 70% for five years .

9.5 Regular use of the State of the Future Index or similar systems in decisionmaking.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

Since chemical, biological, low-level nuclear (“dirty” bombs), and information warfare weapons of mass destruction and disruption may be available to individuals over the next 25 years, we have to learn how to connect education and security systems in a healthy way. The low-technology, high-impact terrorism of September 11th demonstrated that terrorism is increasingly destructive, widespread, and difficult to prevent. Since hospitals, food storage, water supply, and other support systems of civilization depend on the Internet, cyber weapons can now be considered WMD. The severity of religious and ethnic conflicts has escalated to nuclear brinkmanship between India and Pakistan.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute cites 21 major armed conflicts in 2002 that each had 1,000 or more deaths (down from 24 conflicts in 2001); 11 of these were over the question of government and the remaining 10 over disputed territory (6 in Africa, 9 Asia, 3 the Americas, 2 Middle East, and 1 Europe, although Afghanistan/Al Qaeda was classified as in the United States). The vast majority of conflicts are intra-state, and civilian fatalities in these climbed from 5% in 1900 to more than 90% in the 1990s. The University of Maryland Minorities at Risk Project lists 285 minority groups that could be in future conflict due to different forms of injustice. Nearly 37,000 UN peacekeepers from 89 countries are deployed in 14 missions on three continents. Thus far 1,800 UN peacekeepers have died. Currently there are 20 million people of concern to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which has decreased by 2.3 million in the last two years.

At the same time, the vast majority of the world is living in peace, transcultural ethics are being studied, dialogues among differing worldviews are increasing, the United States and Russia continue to sign nuclear reduction treaties, and the Quartet (the United States, the EU, Russia, and the UN) has offered a “Roadmap to Peace” in the Middle East. The growth of democracy, international trade, and global visibility provided by news media, the Internet, and satellite surveillance, plus improving world travel and living standards, are increasing acceptance of the idea that secure conditions for a more peaceful evolution of humanity are possible. Human rights standards are increasing in importance relative to national sovereignty, and the International Criminal Court has begun operations. Once slavery was widely accepted as a “natural” institution; now it is almost entirely gone because humans changed their minds and institutions. If so for slavery, why not for terrorism and war?

The UN Secretariat’s early warning systems could be strengthened by involvement of relevant NGOs and the media, who can supply information and can help generate the public and political will to act when local violence and global threats warrant international intervention. The UN or governments could make advanced intelligence sensors and transceivers available to local citizens so that local realities could be broadcast to the world. The UN Security Council should authorize smarter sanctions that target elite criminals rather than innocent populations, and create all-party mediation on neutral territory. News media and Web sites could be encouraged to give more balanced coverage that shows positive mediation rather than just scenes of violence. Governments should create tracking systems for potential bioweapons assets, and increase the use of nonlethal weapons.

Over the long term, education for a more enlightened public and leadership is the answer. The fundamental causes of terrorism must be understood; public education programs should be created to promote respect for diversity and equal rights. We need to share research in conflict resolution and consensus building that focuses on the common ethical values and oneness that underlies human diversity

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

10.1 The number of people killed in terrorist attacks drops by 25% annually for at least 5 years.

10.2 Violent crime diminishes by 50%.

10.3 Number of countries though to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons drops to zero.

10.4 Arms sales reduced by 50%.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?

Improving the status of women could be one of the most cost-effective strategies for addressing the other challenges in this chapter. Research has shown that improving the status of women has resulted in a host of benefits not only for women but also for their children, families, and nations. Increasing women’s education and access to resources and training improves economic development. Educated women have fewer children, as they tend to marry later and use contraceptives more. Their children are also healthier. Not only is mothers’ education inversely related to child mortality, but gains in women’s education actually made the single largest contribution to declines in malnutrition in the period 1970–95. In addition, over the last 20 years women’s own mortality rates have dropped 50% worldwide.

Better educated mothers have better educated children; unfortunately, two-thirds of the world’s 876 million illiterate people age 15 and older are female. Although the gender gap in school enrollment rates is decreasing in many regions, girls still lag behind boys in many parts of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank confirms that investing in girls and women is one of the soundest social and economic anti-poverty strategies.

While 173 nation-states have ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, progress in the area of gender equality has been slow and uneven. According to UNIFEM, 90% of the 1.3 billion people who live on less than $1 per day are women. Throughout most of the world, women earn on average two-thirds to three-fourths as much as men for the same work. In the majority of countries in Latin America and Asia, 50% or more of the female nonagricultural labor force is in the informal sector, where earnings and social protection are far less secure.

Meanwhile, violence against females between 15 and 44 years old causes more death and disability than cancer, malaria, traffic accidents, and even war. Some 90% of 20 million unsafe abortions occur each year in the Third World. Rates of HIV/AIDS infection among women are also rapidly increasing, with females now constituting the majority of new infections in the 15–24 age group.

Future strategies aimed at enhancing the status of women should include increasing the percentage of women legislators (currently about 15%), guaranteeing the legal rights of women, and raising gender awareness in all departments of the government. Women’s access to resources such as credit, land, technology, training, health care, and childcare programs must be improved, as legal changes may not be enough to enhance women’s status. This is of particular importance to rural, migrant, refugee, internally displaced, and disabled women. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has pointed out that “full equality for women means more than the accomplishment of statistical objectives: the culture has to change.” Such an effort includes educating men to fully respect women and also directly working with the media, which too often perpetuates harmful gender stereotypes. Although discussions about the changing role of women are increasing, it may be necessary to explore sanctions against governments that do not guarantee the rights of women.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

5 = The indicator is an excellent measure of accomplishment
4 = The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3 = The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2 = The indicator is of questionable value
1 = The indicator is essentially of no value

11.1 Gender parity in school enrollment, literacy, and access to capital.

11.2 Essentially equal numbers of women in the parliaments and cabinets of nations.

11.3 Elimination of laws that discriminate against women.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

Transnational organized crime (TOC) has grown to a point that it is increasingly interfering with the ability of governments to act. Nation-states can be understood as a series of decision points that are vulnerable to the vast amounts of money available to crime groups. TOC’s power in one country can be leveraged to increase power in others. The IMF has estimated that as much as 5% of the global economy—$1.8 trillion per year—is laundered through the international financial system. This understates TOC’s total income, since not all income needs to be laundered. Diversification in diamonds, barter, and other media outside traditional currency systems could put the real income to well over $2 trillion per year. Colombia and Afghanistan demonstrate the links among TOC, terrorism, and nation-state power. Some argue that until drugs are decriminalized and put under state control, organized crime cannot be reduced. The vast amount of money amassed by TOC allows its participants to buy the knowledge and technology to create new forms of crime to generate even more profits. In addition to government power, daily international transfers of $2 trillion via computer communications make tempting targets. Production of synthetic psychotropes and heroin and cocaine will also be tempting targets in the future.

TOC has not surfaced on the world agenda the way property, water, and sustainable development have. There are many independent NGOs trying to address the other global challenges in this chapter, but few focus on TOC the way Transparency addresses corruption or Amnesty International addresses political prisoners. The Financial Action Task Force of the OECD has made 40 recommendations to counter money laundering.

The International Criminal Court has been established. Nevertheless, there is no international effort on the scale necessary to address the scope of the problem.

Certainly information technology could be used to identify sources and target money-laundering locations, create an international agreement to upgrade the check registration system for all financial transactions, share information on financial transactions, and coordinate prosecution strategies through an intergovernmental body. The IMF or some UN mechanism might initiate this activity in a special meeting of finance ministers. To make this work, all banks would have to cooperate or be frozen out of the international system. Instant access would have to be available on every financial transaction requested by the international body. Countries would have to give up some sovereignty, as the international body would set the location for prosecution. The international body would authorize the freezing of criminal assets prior to arrest and the transfer of assets after conviction.

A major step in this direction has been taken by 147 nations that have signed the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime (the Palermo Treaty) in record time. It calls for a variety of modes for international cooperation to help fight organized crime. Possibly an additional protocol could be established to create the intergovernmental body with responsibility for identifying money-laundering locations and setting information traps, identifying top criminals by the amount of money laundered, preparing legal cases, identifying suspect’s assets that can be frozen and the readiness of the relevant institutions to freeze them, identifying where the criminal is currently located and assessing local authorities’ ability to make the arrest, identifying the best country in which to prosecute the particular case, and determining the readiness of local courts to move immediately. When everything is ready, this new intergovernmental body would execute all the orders at the same time to apprehend the criminal, freeze the assets and access, and open the court case.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

12.1 International money laundering drops by 75%.

12.2 International drug smuggling, trafficking of humans, and other income sources for transnational organized crime drops by 75%.

12.3 Law enforcement organizations are effectively integrated in all countries.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Chose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

To meet the world’s energy demands over the next 30 years, the International Energy Agency says investments have to triple compared with the last 30 years. The lack of clean and abundant energy has contributed to military conflicts, environmental problems, and poverty. Some 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, and some 2.4 billion rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. A Millennium Project international panel rated abundant clean energy among the most important, inspiring, politically acceptable, and achievable goals by 2050.
Annual energy consumption is expected to increase nearly 60% by 2020 and to double or triple by 2050. The cumulative consumption of fossil fuels is expected to triple over the next 60 years compared with the last 60 years. Unless significant progress is made on carbon sequestration, the environmental movement may try to close down the fossil fuel industries, just as they stopped atomic energy growth 30 years ago. Developing countries are expected to pass industrial ones in total carbon emissions by 2015.

Wind energy is the now the world’s fastest-growing power source, tripling worldwide since 1998. The hydrogen fuel cell R&D competition between the EU, Japan, and the United States may speed development of this alternative to petroleum for transportation, yet fossil fuels and nuclear are expected to be used to help make the hydrogen.

Renewable energy production is expected to grow at 12% annually for 20 years. Nevertheless, alternative sources such as photovoltaic cells, solar thermal energy, geothermal energy, hydrogen, wind power, tidal energy, biomass, ocean thermal differential, fusion, and solar power satellites are not progressing fast enough to meet future demand, let alone replace fossil fuels.

Political leaders should declare “abundant clean energy” as a global goal and commit the resources needed. A key objective should be energy for transportation in developing countries. R&D priority should be given to concepts that are scientifically sound, not already being pursued, and too distant to attract venture capital. While seeking alternative energy solutions, “carbon sequestration” could be developed for carbon capture, separation and storage, or reuse. New projects should also pursue portable sources, energy storage systems, and the safe management of nuclear waste. States should eliminate energy subsidies and tax incentives that perpetuate the status quo and stifle development alternatives. Agreement on scientific measurements will be necessary for energy pricing policies to reflect the external and environmental impacts of energy production and use. All this may require the creation of a World Energy Organization for the coordination of energy research, development, and assistance in implementing policies.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

13.1 Total energy production from environmentally benign processes passed other sources for five sequential years.

13.2 Atmospheric carbon dioxide additions drop for at least five years in a row.

13.3 The worldwide expenditures for energy R&D increase by a factor of 5.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

Most people do not appreciate how fast science and technology will change over the next 25 years. The synergies and confluence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science (NBIC) is a particularly important new merger of science and engineering supported by both government and venture capitalists. NBIC tools will dramatically increase individual and group performance and the support systems of civilization. NBIC products will range from biometrics to counter-terrorism systems, from restoring brain functioning and eyesight to increased longevity.

The factors that caused previous changes—such as computer chips, telecommunications bandwidth, new materials, genomics and biotechnology, computational sciences, international standards, and collaborative software—are themselves changing at accelerating rates, with no end in sight. People are surprised to learn that we can see proteins embedded in a cell’s membrane tens of billionths of a meter across, that organic transistors with a single-molecule channel length have been developed, and that light has been stopped by a yttrium-silica crystal and then released and has been slowed in gas and then accelerated, promising vast improvements in computer capacity. Robot surgery has begun clinical trials, rats’ movements have been controlled by remote devices communicating with the animals’ brains, and more than 10% of humanity is online.

Over the next 25 years NBIC approaches will integrate sciences, engineering, medicine, and business to change the very nature of R&D. They will accelerate efficiency, create better medicines and more nutritious foods using less land and water, and improve learning and mental health. Artificial intelligence with quantum computing will increase collective intelligence, and space sciences will open new technological and social frontiers.

Meanwhile, the risks of some new technologies and scientific developments are enormous, unprecedented, and, many argue, unpredictable. The risks are associated with unanticipated consequences of frontier research or applications and with new weapons applications.

We need some kind of international S&T organization to bring together the world’s knowledge in a more organized, user-friendly fashion, consisting of data banks of many organizations. Such an organization could illustrate risks, opportunities, and a range of speculation on items on an accumulative basis. International scientific assessments of biotech and molecular nanotechnology should be conducted, and whatever is found feasible and desirable should be developed on a fast-tracked international basis. Global “collaboratories” via Internet2 should be fostered for NBIC, and transcultural research should be focused on how to improve the human condition. Basic research and development of new theoretical principals must be supported to provide the growing pool of knowledge from which applied science draws its insights.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

14.1 Funding of R&D for societal needs reaches parity with funding for other purposes.

14.2 Essentially all scientists receive training in moral and ethical decision-making.

14.3 Organizational mechanisms are established to inform and monitor risks and opportunities of S&T.

14.4 An international science & technology organization established to connect world S&T knowledge routinely used in R&D priority setting and legislation.

14.5 Percent of S & T university students doubles.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

Previous moral campaigns by one religion or ideology tend to give rise to “we-they” splits, making it difficult to solve world problems. Collaboration across national and institutional boundaries, as well as religious and ideological ones, seems necessary to address the global challenges in this chapter. Generating the moral will to act across such different systems may require acknowledgment of global ethics. The UN system, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Transparency International, and the Olympics are unique expressions of an evolving global ethics. Whether such ethics are discovered or constructed, they are emerging as important to world trade, biotechnology, climate change, countering terrorism, poverty alleviation, etc.

Globalization and advanced technology allows fewer people to damage more, in less time, than ever before, hence the welfare of anyone should be the concern of everyone. Such platitudes are not new, but the consequences of their failure will be quite different in the future than in the past.

The speed at which we have begun to change the fabric of life seems beyond the ability of science and technology regulators to manage. The prevalence of government corruption, linked with organized crime and terrorism, has become a global phenomenon. Expanding surveillance technology, connected with education and communications systems and the use of universal and accurate lie detectors to counter a range of threats, will force many questions of priorities, values, and global ethics.

The increasingly interconnected world and sophisticated media reporting are making it far more difficult today for unethical decisions to go unnoticed. As a result, we are flooded with far more incidents of deplorable decisions than our current systems are able to avert. This seems to be leading to a new sense of collective responsibility. In the past, public morality was solely based on religious metaphysics, which today is constantly challenged by growing secularism, cross-cultural experiences, and global media full of violence and selfish behavior. A new basis for public morality in a globalizing world is emerging through inter-religious dialogues, new corporate ethics indexes, UN commissions, think tanks, and the many ISO standards. Others explicitly try to develop global ethics, such as UNESCO’s Universal Ethics Project, the Commission on Global Governance, and the Institute for Global Ethics. The largest gathering of national leaders in history issued the Millennium Declaration in 2000 from the UN Millennium Summit as a statement of global values. The UN Secretary-General has challenged business leaders to join the Global Compact by accepting nine principles of global ethics in decisionmaking. The Internet is allowing individuals around the world to organize themselves around specific ethical issues, becoming a new moral force on decisionmaking.

Educating children to become responsible citizens will influence adults and thus the entire population. UNICEF estimates that it would cost $7 billion per year over 10 years to educate the world.

A set of universal values or morals from all religions may not be enough to shock us out of our current behavior. Global ethics must not only correspond to the major religious morals, it should also engage both believers and nonbelievers in a new alliance. We have to find effective policies to counter corruption, encourage the will to act (including acting in the interests of future generations), control lobbying, reduce greed and self-centeredness, encourage honor and honesty, promote parental guidance to establish a sense of values, reduce the barriers to the freedom of inquiry, encourage respect for legitimate authority, support the identification and success of the influence of role models, implement cost-effective strategies for global education for a more enlighten world, and create common agreements about ethics.

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

15.1 There is general acknowledgment of global ethics transcending religion and nationality.

15.2 Essentially all students receive education in responsible citizenship.

15.3 Corporate and government decision makers are required to complete ethics courses.

15.4 Corruption decreases by 50%.

15.5 Ethical business standards internationally recognized and regularly audited.

15.6 50% of multi-national corporations sign UN Global Compact.

Please suggest other measure(s) that would indicate that this challenge has been mastered:

Choose another challenge or proceed to Part 2.

PART 2: Variables Assessment

Variables considered to depict the important conditions of the world are listed below. Please provide your estimates of the value of these variables in the year 2013 under two assumptions: the best possible outcome, and the worst that is still possible. In addition, please indicate your opinion about the relative importance of the variables in depicting the state of the future. Please use the following scale for importance:

5 = of utmost importance
4 = very important
3 = of some importance
2 = of minor importance
1 = not important at all

1. Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

historical data: 1982 = 86.7 2002 = 52.4