AC/UNU Millennium Project

Millennium Project
Global Challenges
Round 2 Questionnaire
deadline for responding: 26 May 2004

If you want to fill out the Spanish version, or you prefer to fill out the questionnaire offline, or if you can not see all the drop-down boxes of this online version, please download the Ms Word (.doc) version - download the questionnaire as a word document. (If a dialog box asks for your authentification - user name and password- just click the "Cancel" button)

- English Ms Word (.doc) version

- Japanese Ms Word (.doc) version --please download both: the Invitation and the Questionnaire)

- Spanish Ms Word (.doc) version

On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in Round 2 of a study to improve understanding of the major global challenges over the next 25 years.

No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants in the 2004 State of the Future and will receive a complimentary copy of the report.

The first round questionnaire asked for judgments about 15 global challenges, projections of the best and worst outcomes anticipated for 20 key variables, and a set of future developments that could affect the course of the 20 variables. The table presenting the median value of the responses to the Round 1 questions about the best plausible and worst plausible values of the twenty variables of the State of the Future Index (SOFI) in 2013 is available at: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/challenges-rd1-SOFI.html.

This second round asks your judgments about the likelihood and consequences of the future developments suggested in Round 1. You can fill out this online questionnaire or download the MsWord (.doc) version of it from: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/challenges-rd2.doc and email your respons as an attached file to acunu@igc.org with a copy to: tedjgordon@att.net and jglenn@igc.org.

You may complete all or any portion of this questionnaire, concentrating in areas about which you are expert or interested.

We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,
Jerome C. Glenn, Director
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow

No attributions will be made, but for demographic analysis please fill out the identification section:

My primary employment is in:

Address to mail your complimentary copy of the 2004 State of the Future:

Instructions

The first round consisted of three sections:

1. Commentary on the 15 Global Challenges of the Millennium Project and how to measure progress on these challenges. The results will appear in the 2004 State of the Future report.

2. Projections of the best and worst values of twenty variables associated with the State of the Future Index. A table displaying the median values of the panel's judgments about best and worst values of the 20 variables appears at the end of this questionnaire for your information.

3. Future developments that might affect the 20 variables.

This second round questionnaire focuses just on the future developments suggested by the participants in the first round.

Please provide your judgments about the future developments listed below. This list has been derived from Round 1 responses that have been edited for clarity, distilled to reduce redundancy, and selected for significance of impact. The complete list of suggested developments from Round 1 will be included in the CD attached to the 2004 State of the Future.

You are invited to record your judgments about the likelihood of the developments' occurrence by or before 2014, the developments' impacts on the variables if they were to occur, and the timing of the impact.

For likelihood please use the following scale:

For the developments' impacts on the variables, please provide your judgments about the peak change in the variable that would result if the development were to occur. Note that impacts may be positive or negative.

Concerning the timing of the impact, naturally, some developments will have an impact on a variable much sooner than others. To take this into account in calculating the next State of the Future Index (SOFI), please assume the development occurs and estimate the number of years from the development's occurrence to the peak of its impact on the variable.

As an example, consider development 1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives. If you thought this development were very likely to occur before 2014, at the likelihood question you would select "4 = very likely". Now consider its effect on variable 1, "Infant Mortality Rate". Assume the development happened. If you thought it would greatly decrease infant mortality rate you would select "-5 = Very high negative impact" at the level of impact question. Now, how long would it take to reach its peak effect after it occurred? If you thought it would take 10 years, you would enter a "10" at the question years from occurring to peak impact.

The variables

1. Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

1.2 China and India becomes 50% urbanized.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

1.3 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

1.4 Standard vaccinations of 70% of all children under five years

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

1.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75% of women.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

1.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches 85%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

1.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

1.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries

2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%. (See 1.7).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated under 1.7)

Level of impact:

2.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and distribution reducing food waste by 10%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2% of the world’s crops.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.7 Production increases from high tech agriculture including biotech crops, improved irrigation and soil conservation, gains of 10% in productivity.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.8 Energy costs rise by 25%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.9 Energy costs drop 25%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

2.10 World population growth of 20%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

3. GNP per capita PPP (Purchasing Power Parity in constant US$ 1995)

3.1 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

3.2 Nanotech and biotech new industries account for 5% growth addition to world economy.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

3.3 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

3.4 Military/security spending drops 25% from current levels.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

3.5 Rise of trade wars, new isolationist policies limiting trade to current levels.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

3.6 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices. (See 2.1).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.1)

Level of impact:

3.7 Women's participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

3.8 Energy costs rise by 25% (See 2.8).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.8)

Level of impact:

3.9 Energy costs drop 25%. (See 2.9).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.9)

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)

4.1 Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20% globally.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

4.2 New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10% per unit of agricultural production.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

4.3 Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water; drought in others, makes water 5% less available on the whole.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

4.4 Improved sanitation increases clean surface water by 5%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

4.5 World population growth of 20% (See 2.10).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.10)

Level of impact:

4.6 Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies able in the poorest regions.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

4.7 Construction and use of high volume inter-watershed pipelines.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

4.8 Terrorists contaminating water supplies; supplies remain unusable for decades.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

5. CO2 atmospheric, ppm

5.1 Total industrial output of China plus India grows by 30%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

5.2 Energy costs rise by 25% (See 2.8).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.8)

Level of impact:

5.3 Energy costs drop 25%. (See 2.9).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.9)

Level of impact:

5.4 World population growth of 20% (See 4.5)

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 4.5)

Level of impact:

5.5 Carbon sequestration used by 25% of carbon-based industries’ energy conversions.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

5.5 Growth of solar, wind power, other “green” energy sources reduces burning in energy production by 5%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

5.7 Reforestation increases wooded land cover by 10%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

5.8 Closing of 25% of existing nuclear power plants.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

5.9 Kyoto Protocol in force via Russian ratification or other required country.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

5.10 First orbital solar power satellite feeds electric grid on earth.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

6. Annual population additions (millions)

6.1 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people (See 1.3).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 1.3)

Level of impact:

6.2 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives. (See 1.1)

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 1.1)

Level of impact:

6.3 Low cost anti-aging therapies increase life expectancy 20%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

6.4 Women's participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today. (See 3.8)

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.8)

Level of impact:

6.5 China and India becomes 50% urbanized (See 1.2).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 1.2)

Level of impact:

6.6 Widespread availability of a chemical or genetic process that permits gender selection of child before conception.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

6.7 Another pandemic of the scale of HIV/AIDS.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

6.8 Lifting of Catholic prohibitions of the use of contraceptives.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

7. Percentage of world population unemployed

7.1 China and India becomes 50% urbanized (See 1.2).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 1.2)

Level of impact:

7.2 Elderly labor force: 10% increase among those people older than age 65.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

7.3 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old (See 3.1).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.1)

Level of impact:

7.4 Unemployment swings of 10% (up or down) from expectations.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

7.5 Economic expansion of at least 5% from new fields such as applied nanotechnology (See 3.3).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.3)

Level of impact:

7.6 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.4).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.4)

Level of impact:

7.7 Automation and robotics increase productivity 25% in enough countries to make "jobless" economic growth.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

7.8 Women's participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today (See 3.8).

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

8. Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above)

8.1 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old (See 3.1).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.1)

Level of impact:

8.2 Global tele-education literacy programs available via hand-held devices costing less than US$10 per unit.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

8.3 Tele-citizens; more than 10,000 people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via international tele-commuting.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

8.4 Advent of a "teachers without borders" movement (10,000 new teachers in the field).

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

8.5 Women's participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today (See 3.8).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.8)

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

9. Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

9.1 HIV placed into a dormant state through the use of inexpensive (even in poor countries) and widely available drugs.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

9.2 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people (See 1.3).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 1.3)

Level of impact:

9.3 Major global agreements with drug manufacturers and governments, which makes AIDS management drugs available to the majority of those who need them.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

9.4 Developed nations commit the resources necessary to end AIDS and treat HIV.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

9.5 Vaccine developed and used on the scale of WHO's Small Pox campaign.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

10. Life Expectancy

10.1 Discovery of how aging occurs.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

10.2 Availability of a cheap anti-aging therapy, base on the knowledge of how aging occurs.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

10.3 Average cost of drugs falls 25%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

10.4 Gene therapy: effective and widespread application of human genome knowledge to disease cures.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

10.5 Major epidemics akin to AIDS (See 6.7).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 6.7)

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

11. Number of Armed Conflicts (1000 or more deaths per year)

11.1 Massive, nearly global surveillance system to monitor weapons and weapons-related materials and equipment.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

11.2 Precision guided missiles become available to developing countries and terrorists.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

11.3 UN reform (improved efficiency and accountability) and improved global governance (not government).

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

11.4 Control of the illegal weapons trade including export and use of land mines.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

11.5 International early warnings and interventions prevent environmental catastrophes and mass migrations.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

11.6 International Criminal Court proves to be a successful institution for trying indicted political figures.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

12. Debt/GNP Developing Countries (percent)

12.1 Debt forgiveness by developed world (debt reduced by 50% overall).

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

12.2 Transnational organized crime grows to 8% of the global economy.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

12.3 Precision guided missiles become available to developing countries and terrorists. (See 11.1).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 11.1)

Level of impact:

12.4 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.4)

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.4)

Level of impact:

12.5 Debt for Nature swaps reduces total developing country debt an additional 5%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

13. Forest Lands (Million Hectares)

13.1 Sustainability: environmental consciousness is pervasive, affects decision-making everywhere; rate of loss of forest diminished by 20%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

13.2 Production increases from high tech agriculture including biotech crops, improved irrigation and soil conservation, gains of 10% in productivity (See 2.7).

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

13.3 Environmental security becoming an important national security issue; military involved in resolving environmental issues.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

13.4 Large-scale reforestation programs adopted by most critical countries but majority of funding form international coalition.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

13.5 Energy costs rise by 25% (See 2.8).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.8)

Level of impact:

13.6 Energy costs drop 25%. (See 2.9).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 2.9)

Level of impact:

13.7 Debt for Nature swaps reduces total developing country debt an additional 5% (See 12.5).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 12.5)

Level of impact:

13.8 Conversion of deserts into green lands adding 5% to global arable lands.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

13.9 Development of fast growing trees satisfies demand for wood without reducing the acreage in forests.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

13.10 Increased CO2 and global warming results in forests expanding northward by 5% in Russia and North America.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

14. Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day

14.1 Global partnerships for development between rich entrepreneurs and those in areas where people live on less that $2 per day.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

14.2 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.4).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.4)

Level of impact:

14.3 Women's participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today. (See 3.8).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.8)

Level of impact:

14.4 China and India becomes 50% urbanized (See 1.2)

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 1.2)

Level of impact:

14.5 Elderly labor force: 10% increase among those people older than age 65. (See 7.2).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 7.2)

Level of impact:

14.6 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old (See 3.1).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.1)

Level of impact:

14.7 International business between North and South is based upon principles of justice and equity.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

15. Terrorist Attacks

15.1 International surveillance system and national arresting authorities in regular and cooperative contact.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

15.2 Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

15.3 Emergence of new Islamic leaders, who stress historic Islamic role in science and multicultural respect, makes it feasible to silence advocates of terrorist acts.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

15.4 International Criminal Court proves to be a successful institution for trying indicted political figures (See 11.6).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 11.6)

Level of impact:

15.5 US diplomacy becomes more multilateral and less arrogant.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

15.6 Resolution of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

15.7 International development assistance increases 30%, reinforcing international solidarity, and issues of social justice.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

15.8 Invention and commercialization of new types of arms and surreptitious detection devices used to interdict terror activities.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

16. Violent Crime 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)

16.1 Transnational organized crime grows to 8% of the global economy (See 12.2).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 12.2)

Level of impact:

16.2 Establishment of international police institutions and methods leading to a 25% reduction in violent crime.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

16.3 Legalization of some currently outlawed drugs.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

16.4 New technologies used in detecting criminal behavior; new surveillance micro cameras, psychological profiles, etc.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

16.5 Probation of rough violence in media in the same way as tobacco advertisements in some countries today.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

16.6 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.4).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.4)

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

17. Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free

17.1 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old (See 3.1).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.1)

Level of impact:

17.2 Decline of political pluralism, due to industrialization of public opinion building along with business-driven monopolization of media.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

17.3 Concentration of the media (50% of all TV and newspapers in the hands of three or so firms globally) creates agenda and shapes public opinion.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

17.4 Technological proliferation and trade accelerates to the point that people in dictatorships become free, de facto.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

17.5 Policies to stop terrorism reverse the trend toward democratization in the majority of countries.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

17.6 International media increases exposure of totalitarian actions to the point that international pressure for change becomes more effective.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

18. School Enrollment, secondary (percentage of school age)

18.1 Tele-citizens; more than 10,000 people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via international tele-commuting (See 8.3).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 8.3)

Level of impact:

18.2 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old(See 3.1).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.1)

Level of impact:

18.3 Advent of a “teachers without borders” movement (50,000 new teachers in the field).

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

18.4 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.4)

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

18.5 Women's participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today. (See 3.8).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.8)

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

19. Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

19.1 Elderly labor force: 10% increase among those people older than age 65. (See 7.2).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 7.2)

Level of impact:

19.2 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people. (See 1.3).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 1.3)

Level of impact:

19.3 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.4).

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.4)

Level of impact:

19.4 Women's participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today (See 3.8)

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 3.8)

Level of impact:

19.5 Telecommunications and medical informatics enable local general practitioners, medics, and nurses to provide increasingly high quality local services.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

19.6 Another pandemic or the scale of HIV/AIDS (See 6.7)

Likelihood by or before 2014 (already rated at 6.7)

Level of impact:

Continue with the next variable, choose another variable, or proceed to the end.

20. Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

20.1 Increasing decision failures of governments due to inability to manage complex systems.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.2 Stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the US and Russia further reduced by 90%.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.3 Nuclear powers announce refusal to reduce their arsenals.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.4 Democratization accelerates (10% more countries).

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.5 Intransigence by nuclear powers in reducing their arsenal.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.6 Implementation of stronger economic sanctions to limit production and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.7 The world weapons industry being placed under the control of international organizations.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.8 Non proliferation treaty ratified by essentially all countries.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

20.9 International acknowledgement that security guarantees exist to prevent invasions of smaller states (such as US guarantee for Kuwait) has reduced the incentive for small states to acquire "last resort" retaliatory capabilities.

Likelihood by or before 2014:

Level of impact:

Other comments concerning this questionnaire and/or the variables

Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the American Council for the UNU