Report presented at the July 2003 Planning Committee Meeting

Dr. Rusong Wang, Chair of the Cinese node, presented the report of the Node at the February 2003 Planning Committee Meeting.

Awakening from Risks and Image for A Better Millennium
-- Beijing Node Report

1.    Main Activities

A.    Millennium Project activities:

·    3 workshops discussing the State of the Future at the Millenium and the China’s issue
·    MP studies on Future Issues of Science and Technology Scenarios, International assessment of inspiring goals for 2050, Middle East Peace Scenarios etc.

·    Forum of long term impacts of rapid and large scale urbanization in East China, Beijing, March28, 2002.
·    Forum of long term impacts of intensive exploitation of West China, National Conference on Strategies after China Enter WTO, Chengdu, Sept.3-8, 2002.
·    Forum of Agenda 21 and Its Local Implementation in China, Beijing, Nov. 30, 2002
·    Fifth International Ecocity Conference, Shenzhen, China, Aug.18-23, 2002

·    Translation of 2002 State of the Future into Chinese, the draft came out
·    Publication of 2001 State of the Future in Chinese by the Economic Press
·    Translation and publication of “Ecocities: Building Cities in Balance with Nature” (R.Register), China’s Social Literature Science Press.
·    Publication of “Industrial Ecology: from brown industry to green civilization” by Rusong Wang and Jianxin Yang, Shanghai Science and Technology Press.

A. Long term impacts & strategies of rapid & large scale urbanization in East China

Though its short-term economic and social benefits of the rapid economic growth, large scale urban sprawl, dramatic increase of private car and fast life style modernization in East China are significant and dominant, the negative long term social, economic and natural impacts should be not neglected. Which includes: Less controlled regional and urban ecosystem planning; Stagnancy and Exhaustion of Resource Input-Output; Fragmentation and Agglomeration in System Structure and Function; Short-sighted & mechanism lacking in dealing with the relationship between parts & whole; High stress and incompatibility of natural resources; The loss of traditional culture and identity; the widening of social and regional gaps.

A new model of ecopolis development is therefore push forward at the Fifth International Ecocity Conference.  Ecopolis is a kind of administrative unit having economically productive and ecologically efficient industry, systematically responsible and socially harmonious culture, and physically beautiful and functionally vivid landscape. The essential idea of ecopolis development is to plan, design, manage and restructure the urban ecosystem’s structure, function and process according to ecological cybernetics. It is an adaptive process towards sustainable development within the carrying capacity of local ecosystem through changing production mode, consumption behavior and governing instruments based on the social-economic-natural complex ecosystem theory. Ecopolis has five fundamental elements and processes: ecological sanitation; ecological security; ecological metabolism; ecological landscape and ecological culture. The ecocity development has four stages: concept initiation and comprehensive planning, systematically responsible ecoscape planning, totally functioning eco-industrial transformation and ecologically vivid management. Ecocity development needs five motivations: administrative authorizing, scientific supervision, industrial sponsoring, citizens' participation and medium motivation.
 There are five main different kinds of models for local sustainable development in China: Top-down demonstration model; Self-initiating and ambitious driving model; Bottom-up self- sustaining and demand-driving model; Scientific catalyzing and academic inspiring model; International cooperation based passive model.None of these models individually is ideal or sustainable. In fact, there are some comprehensive models that combine some or all of these models through taking their advantages and avoiding disadvantages. The GTZ supported project of Yangzhou Ecocity Planning and Management project is just going to this way. The key is to convince local decision makers, industries and citizens about both the economic and ecological benefits and help local people to act by themselves in a sustainable way.

B. Long term impacts of large scale infrastructure construction, intensive resource exploitation and heavy investment for nature restoration in the Grand West of China.

More than 71% of the China’s land is in the 12 provinces of Grand West, of which only 17% is plain area suitable for agriculture. High population growth rate, fragile environment, low carrying capacity, poor infrastructure and low quality of literature have caused the backward development.  In these years, according to the Grand West Development Plan advocated by the central government, large scale infrastructure construction, intensive resource exploitation,heavy investment for nature restoration and special policies to encourage local development have taken place in these provinces. Except its positive impacts in driving local social and economic development, its long term impacts on resource exploitation and ecological security are also significant. Such as: Watershed exhaustion; Natural resource deterioration; Ecosystem service declination; Heavy pollution industry transformed from east; Environmental impacts of large water and energy engineering project; Widening gap between urban and rural area, between richer and poor area.

An ecosystem-oriented approach is encouraged for Grand West Development including comprehensive ecological zoning and planning; Enhancement of Institutional and legislational capacity; Encouragement of east-west cooperation in capacity building especially in education; Eco-security monitoring and management etc.
The future of China’s development is neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic, depends on the attitude and action of man. A bright future will be there if ecological development in both east and west could keep pace with the economic development, and the capacity building of hardware, software and mindware could be simultaneously going on. The key here is the harmony of the technological innovation, institutional reform and behavioral inducement, or the ecological integrity among science, politics and spirituality.
Furthermore, China can never reach USA’s consumption level. Its production mode and life style of modernization should be completely different from the industrialized countries’ standard.  Restructuring of the current production mode and change the life style are critical for leading a more sustainable and applicable future, ecopolis development to encourage ecoindustry, ecoculture and eco-landscape  might be an appropriate way in the future.

4. Middle East Peace Discussion

The Middle East Peace is a really complicated issue. There are many political, economic, spiritual and environmental conflicts, which can not be separately solved by any of the strategies in the list of this questionnaire.

The main driving forces of the conflicts between Palestine and Israel include: Religion, Resource, Revenge and Foreign interference. These four forces interwoven each other in a world wide and centuries long scale, which make the situation more complicated and falls into a positive feedback of conflicts re-enhancement, Though most of Palestinian or Jewish are longing peace and love is a basic nature of both nationalities.

According to the past half century’s experiences in the struggle for Middle East Peace, the land claimed by both sides is difficult to be fairly divided into two pieces satisfied by both sides, because either Palestinian or Jewish has strong enough reasons and rights to claim the land. a sustainable peace and development can not be realized in the land in a way of nowadays strategies.
Suggested here is a system oriented alternative of “Freeze hate, Tape love, Stop interference, Concentrate on Development through United Nation’s intervention, and united as one country in the end with diversified religious and nationalities realized step by step”. The details are:

A.    As an ultimate goal (in 5-10 years), to meet the needs of both Palestinian or Jewish through establishment of a democratic United Country with diversified religious and nationalities harmoniously living together like the case in South Africa;

B.    Initiating a comprehensive Middle East Peace study by UN, participated by a international research team having no-interests in Middle East. Our MP network and this scenario team might be part of this group.  The study should systematically summarize and simulate the lessons, experiences of Middle East Peace during the past half century, and to let people understand the dynamics, cybernetics, tendencies and its impacts of the long-term conflicts on the people, the region and the world.

C.    Establish a UN trusteeship to execute a temporal governance in the land, which includes:

¨    Send a UN peacekeeping troops to freeze all military, violent and revenge actions of both Palestine and Israel;
¨    Cut off all foreign interference from any countries, parties or interests groups except those assistance through UN representatives;
¨    Seta Middle East Peach Fund to encourage world wide help in dealing with urgent social, economic and environmental issues in the land, especially provide help to poor and disable people in the land via these funds;
¨    Establish an International Tribunal responsible for try civilians and/or leaders from Palestine and Israel accused of heinous crimes;
¨    Train new generation leaders and servants for future governance;
¨    Prepare and organize democratic election, legislation for their own governance;
¨    Restore the damaged natural ecosystem as well as the deteriorated human ecosystem;
¨    Promote conservation, efficient use and fair distribution of water resources;
¨    Promote sustainable social-economic development.

·    Continue to cooperate with for the international Millennium studies;
·    Internet Conference on Ecocity Development from February to June;
·    Joint activity with International Partnership for Eco-Development in Asia.
·    China session at the Third World Water Forum: From vision to action, April 18, 2003, Kyoto.
·    Publish Chinese version of 2001 State of the Future by the Economic Press.

·    The main purpose of MP is to influence present development through simulation of future from past experiences. The “if…then…so…” process should focus on influencing present policy making, R&D orientation and behavior inducement. So each year MP should identify some key policy making suggestions in global or regional scale, in general or special issues.
·    Encourage cooperation with writers to write science fiction / cartoon /TV program based on MP scenario results for better dissemination.
·    Enhancement of regional SOFI study so that the general MP report will have regional index.

Dr. Rusong Wang, Chair of the Cinese node, presented the report of the Node. Please click here to download the power point presentation.