Environmental Change and Biodiversity

One or more of the following criteria is used to qualify a development:

  1. A development is a succinct statement about a single potential future occurrence which can be verified in retrospect. For example: "invisibility cloaking at optical wavelengths is demonstrated in the laboratory for objects as large as 6 inches or less"
  2. While different formulations are possible, sentences are written in the present tense, as illustrated above.
  3. Limit of one occurrence per development; otherwise a statement may lead to uncertainty about what is being forecasted. For example, a statement such as: "invisibility cloaking at optical wavelengths is used by the army to camouflage tanks and warfare is revolutionized" is discouraged.

The following is done to enhance the validity of developments:

  • When possible and germane to the study, hyperlinked references will be included
  • Geographic references are included if they improve the precision (and thus the verifiability) of the statement. Example: "The rate of melting of glaciers in the Andes doubles over the rate experienced in 2010" versus "The rate of melting of glaciers doubles over the rate experienced in 2010."
  • The time over which a development occurs will be stated, making retrospective verification more feasible. For example, "The fish population in Lake Happiness drops by half in the next decade" is preferred to "The fish population in Lake Happiness drops by half."

The developments available were collected over the following outlook studies:


Latin America Study

Development Probability Significance
(Eng) Artificial bacteria and algae are used to produce 20% of fuels    
(Esp) Bacterias artificiales y algas se utilizan para producir 20% de los combustibles Average: 49.1 Average: 6.05
(Por) Bactérias e algas artificiais são utilizadas para produzir 20% dos combustíveis fósseis Respondents: 462 Respondents: 385
Massive financial crisis triggers a world depression as large as in the 1930's.     
Una crisis financiera a gran escala provoca una depresión mundial de la magnitud de la de los años 1930s. Average: 50.6 Average: 7.18
A crise financeira em grande escala causou uma depressão global com a mesma magnitude da depressão de 1930. Respondents: 394 Respondents: 379
Most glaciers melt twice as fast as in the decade 2000 - 2009    
La mayoría de los glaciares se derriten al doble de velocidad que en la década 2000-2009 Average: 61.8 Average: 6.80
A maioria das geleiras estão derretendo duas vezes mais rápido do que na década 2000-2009 Respondents: 379 Respondents: 363
Global pandemic kills over one hundred million people    
Una pandemia global aniquila más de cien millones de personas Average: 36.4 Average: 6.60
Uma pandemia global aniquila mais de cem milhões de pessoas Respondents: 376 Respondents: 368
Megawatt levels of power are beamed from solar collectors in orbit to Earth    
A partir de colectores solares situados en órbita se obtiene energía a nivel de megavatios Average: 39.3 Average: 4.85
Energia em nível de megawatts é obtida de coletores solares colocados em órbita Respondents: 349 Respondents: 340
An asteroid or meteorite crashes on Earth and kills millions    
Un asteroide o meteorito impacta sobre la tierra y extermina a millones de personas Average: 19.7 Average: 5.89
Um asteróide ou impactos de meteoritos que caem sobre a Terra matam milhões de pessoas Respondents: 354 Respondents: 340
Renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, provide 50% of the world's power    
Las energías renovables, como la solar o la eólica, proveen el 50% de la energía utilizada en todo el mundo Average: 52.2 Average: 6.50
Energias renováveis como a solar ou eólica fornecem 50% da energia utilizada no mundo Respondents: 365 Respondents: 350
Electric, hydrogen and hybrid cars represent 50% of new vehicles sold    
Los coches eléctricos, de hidrógeno o híbridos representan el 50% de los nuevos vehículos vendidos Average: 61 Average: 6.02
Os carros elétricos, movidos a hidrogênio ou híbridos representam 50% dos veículos novos vendidos Respondents: 359 Respondents: 347
Human genetic manipulation (e.g. designer babies) is accepted in most countries    
La manipulación genética en humanos (p. ej. diseñar la descendencia) es aceptada en la mayoría de países Average: 40.6 Average: 4.61
A manipulação genética humana (por exemplo, bebês projetados) é aceita na maioria dos países Respondents: 349 Respondents: 335
Genetic manipulation (GM) is used in the production of 2/3 of the world's food    
La manipulación genética (MG) es usada en la producción de 2/3 de la producción alimentaria mundial Average: 66.1 Average: 6.85
A manipulação genética é utilizada na produção de 2/3 da produção mundial de alimentos Respondents: 342 Respondents: 336
Wireless electricity transmission from point to point on Earth at gigawatt levels is proven feasible    
La transmisión eléctrica terrestre “wireless” o inalámbrica a niveles de gigavatios es factible Average: 53.6 Average: 6.00
O transmissão elétrica "wireless" terrestre em níveis de gigawatts é viável Respondents: 314 Respondents: 310
Extremists detonate nuclear devices, dirty bombs, or other weapons of mass destruction in Europe or the USA    
Terroristas hacen detonar armas nucleares, bombas caseras u otras armas de destrucción masiva en Europa o Estados Average: 47.3 Average: 5.26
Terroristas detonam armas nucleares, bombas caseiras ou outras armas de destruição em massa na Europa ou nos Estados Unidos. Respondents: 328 Respondents: 322
Long trade wars between China and the USA significantly damage world commerce    
Largas guerras comerciales entre Estados Unidos y China afectan negativamente al comercio mundial Average: 50.5 Average: 6.28
Grandes guerras comerciais entre a China e os Estados Unidos afetam negativamente o comércio mundial Respondents: 332 Respondents: 327
Some European countries fall back to undeveloped status    
Algunos países europeos caen en un estado de subdesarrollo Average: 33 Average: 4.29
Alguns países europeus caem para um estado de subdesenvolvimento Respondents: 329 Respondents: 321
China's use of coal drops to 10% of current levels    
El uso de carbón por parte de China cae un 10% con respecto a los niveles actuales Average: 48.1 Average: 4.05
O uso de carvão na China cai 10% em relação aos níveis atuais Respondents: 310 Respondents: 298
Artificial intelligence reaches the level of human intelligence    
La inteligencia artificial se equipara al nivel de la inteligencia humana Average: 39 Average: 5.15
A inteligência artificial se equipara ao nível de inteligência humana Respondents: 318 Respondents: 304
Essentially all countries guarantee primary and secondary school education    
Esencialmente, todos los países garantizan una educación primaria y secundaria Average: 57.5 Average: 7.27
Todos os países, garantir uma educação primária e secundária essencial Respondents: 315 Respondents: 309
Cybercrime is more difficult to detect and triples in damages from 2010 levels.    
Aumenta la dificultad de detección del ciber-crimen y se triplica con respecto a los niveles de 2010 Average: 61.4 Average: 6.03
Cresce a dificuldade de se detectar a incidência de crimes cibernéticos, os quais triplicam em relação aos índices de 2010 Respondents: 305 Respondents: 300
Computer to brain implants make brain to brain and computer communications possible    
Implantes de hardware en el cerebro posibilitan la comunicación cerebro-cerebro y cerebro-computadora Average: 45 Average: 4.53
Hardwares implantados no cérebro permitem a comunicação cérebro-cérebro e cérebro-computador Respondents: 298 Respondents: 291
Over 40% of all people in the world become vegetarians    
Aproximadamente, el 40% de la población mundial se convierte en vegetariana Average: 33.4 Average: 5.42
Cerca de 40% da população do mundo torna-se vegetariana Respondents: 306 Respondents: 300
Most geo scientists agree that "global warming" was a false alarm    
La mayoría de geo-científicos reconocen que el “calentamiento global” fue una falsa alarma Average: 28.8 Average: 4.16
A maioria dos geo-cientistas reconhecem que o aquecimento global "foi um alarme falso” Respondents: 301 Respondents: 290
OPEC becomes irrelevant and disappears    
La OPEC se convierte en irrelevante y desaparece Average: 45 Average: 5.18
A OPEP se torna irrelevante e desaparece Respondents: 300 Respondents: 290
Nanotechnology accounts for 30% of all manufacturing    
La nanotecnología supone el 30% de todas las tecnologías Average: 59.2 Average: 5.79
A nanotecnologia representa 30% de todas as tecnologias Respondents: 288 Respondents: 282
Middle East oil producing countries successfully diversify beyond energy production (50% of income from sources other than oil)    
Los países productores de petróleo de Oriente Medio diversifican su producción energética de forma exitosa (50% de sus ingresos provienen de fuentes energéticas distintas al petróleo) Average: 44.9 Average: 4.95
Os países produtores de petróleo no Oriente Médio diversificam a sua produção de energia com sucesso (50% de suas receitas provêm de fontes que não sejam do petróleo) Respondents: 294 Respondents: 287
Human migrations at twice today's levels occur from causes such as water shortages    
Migraciones humanas que doblan en magnitud a las actuales se producen debido a causas como la escasez de agua Average: 64.2 Average: 7.03
Migrações humanas alcançam o dobro da magnitude atual devido a causas como a escassez de água Respondents: 296 Respondents: 289
Water scarcity problems are essentially solved (for example, through low cost desalination)    
Se solucionan los problemas derivados de la escasez de agua (por ejemplo, a través de la desalinización a bajo coste) Average: 47.9 Average: 6.23
São resolvidos os problemas de escassez de água (por exemplo, através da dessalinização de baixo custo) Respondents: 290 Respondents: 283
Saudi Arabia is balkanized after, for example, the Saudi royal family collapses or Islamist coup    
Arabia Saudita sufre un proceso de balcanización después de, por ejemplo, un colapso de la familia real o un golpe de estado islamista Average: 41.8 Average: 3.18
A Arábia Saudita sofre um processo de balcanização, depois, por exemplo, de um colapso da família real ou de um golpe islâmico Respondents: 264 Respondents: 261
90% of the world's population over 11 years of age uses Internet    
El 90% de la población mundial mayor de 11 años utiliza Internet Average: 74.3 Average: 7.30
90% da população global com mais de 11 anos de idade utiliza a Internet Respondents: 295 Respondents: 290
Carbon sequestration: 25% of all new carbon production is captured and stored    
Secuestro de carbono: el 25% de todo el carbono emitido es capturado y almacenado Average: 47.3 Average: 5.38
Seqüestro de carbono: 25% de todo o carbono emitido é capturado e armazenado Respondents: 264 Respondents: 259
A post Kyoto Protocol is negotiated and enforced    
Se negocia la entrada en vigor de un protocolo post-Kioto Average: 61.8 Average: 6.20
Negocia-se a entrada em vigor de um Protocolo pós-Quioto Respondents: 275 Respondents: 268
Energy companies are found responsible and sued for previous CO2 emissions    
Las compañías energéticas sufren denuncias y son declaradas culpables de la emisión de CO2 en periodos anteriores Average: 42.1 Average: 4.56
As empresas de energia são denunciadas e declaradas culpadas pelas emissões de CO2 em períodos anteriores Respondents: 278 Respondents: 271
Humans control weather; e.g. rain levels in some areas can be increased by 30%    
Los humanos controlan el clima; p. ej. el nivel de precipitaciones se puede incrementar en un 30% en algunas áreas Average: 39.5 Average: 6.36
Seres humanos podem controlar o tempo; por exemplo, o nível de precipitações pode crescer 30% em algumas áreas Respondents: 284 Respondents: 274
Real-time translation technologies eliminate most language barriers    
Las tecnologías de traducción a tiempo real eliminan la mayoría de las barreras lingüísticas Average: 65.5 Average: 6.43
A tecnologia de tradução em tempo real para eliminar as barreiras lingüísticas mais Respondents: 287 Respondents: 280
Diseases like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and cancer are eliminated everywhere    
Enfermedades como el Alzheimer, el Parkinson y el Cáncer son erradicadas Average: 43.7 Average: 6.22
Doenças como Alzheimer, Parkinson e câncer são erradicadas Respondents: 283 Respondents: 277
A single global currency has been created and circulates in 90 countries    
Se crea una moneda única global que circula en 90 países Average: 34.7 Average: 6.36
É lançada uma moeda mundial única que circula em 90 países Respondents: 289 Respondents: 281
A technological singularity is expected any time soon    
Se espera que aparezca en cualquier momento una singularidad tecnológica  Average: 60 Average: 6.15
Espera-se que apareça a qualquer momento uma singularidade tecnológica Respondents: 253 Respondents: 244
Nuclear weapons proliferate; 30 nations have the bomb    
Las armas nucleares proliferan; 30 países tienen bombas nucleares Average: 51.4 Average: 5.77
As armas nucleares estão proliferando, 30 países possuem bombas nucleares Respondents: 277 Respondents: 271
First cyborgs and post-humans live among unenhanced humans    
Los primeros cyborgs y post-humanos conviven con humanos no aumentados por las tecnologías Average: 32.4 Average: 4.28
O primeiro ciborgues e pós- humanos (incrementados pela tecnologia) convivem com humanos normais Respondents: 275 Respondents: 269
Geo-Political Influence: Argentina    
Influencia Geopolítica: Argentina Average: 41.5 Average: 5.35
Influência Geopolítica: Argentina Respondents: 261 Respondents: 252
Geo-Political Influence: Brazil    
Influencia Geopolítica: Brasil Average: 76.3 Average: 8.00
Influência Geopolítica: Brasil Respondents: 260 Respondents: 254
Geo-Political Influence: China    
Influencia Geopolítica: China Average: 81.2 Average: 7.40
Influência Geopolítica: China Respondents: 256 Respondents: 251
Geo-Political Influence: Colombia    
Influencia Geopolítica: Colombia Average: 36.6 Average: 4.22
Influencia Geopolítica: Colombia Respondents: 252 Respondents: 247
Geo-Political Influence: European Union    
Influencia Geopolítica: Unión Europea Average: 60.7 Average: 5.89
Influência Geopolítica: União Européia Respondents: 253 Respondents: 250
Geo-Political Influence: India    
Influencia Geopolítica: India Average: 65 Average: 5.30
Influência Geopolítica: Índia Respondents: 253 Respondents: 251
Geo-Political Influence: Japan    
Influencia Geopolítica: Japón Average: 47.4 Average: 4.45
Influência Geopolítica: Japão Respondents: 245 Respondents: 243
Geo-Political Influence: Mexico    
Influencia Geopolítica: México Average: 46.3 Average: 4.93
Influência Geopolítica: México Respondents: 249 Respondents: 247
Geo-Political Influence: Middle East    
Influencia Geopolítica: Oriente Medio Average: 38.2 Average: 3.57
Influência Geopolítica: Oriente Médio Respondents: 246 Respondents: 244
Geo-Political Influence: Russia    
Influencia Geopolítica: Rusia Average: 47.9 Average: 4.04
Influência Geopolítica: Rússia Respondents: 247 Respondents: 244
Geo-Political Influence: South Korea    
Influencia Geopolítica: Corea del Sur Average: 41.3 Average: 3.45
Influência Geopolítica: Coréia do Sul Respondents: 239 Respondents: 236
Geo-Political Influence: Sub-Saharan Africa    
Influencia Geopolítica: África Subsahariana Average: 25.4 Average: 2.33
Influência Geopolítica: África Subsaariana Respondents: 239 Respondents: 238
Geo-Political Influence: United States    
Influencia Geopolítica: Estados Unidos de América Average: 57.1 Average: 6.80
Influência Geopolítica: E.U.A. Respondents: 243 Respondents: 242
Geo-Political Influence: Venezuela    
Influencia Geopolítica: Venezuela Average: 32.8 Average: 4.05
Influência Geopolítica: Venezuela Respondents: 240 Respondents: 238
Mexico integrates more with the USA than with rest of Latin America    
México se integra en mayor grado con Estados Unidos que con el resto de Latinoamérica Average: 65.4 Average: 5.66
O México está mais integrado com os Estados Unidos do que com o resto da América Latina Respondents: 244 Respondents: 241
Entrance to the USA is denied to emigrants from Latin America    
Se niega la entrada a Estados Unidos para emigrantes de Latinoamérica Average: 41.3 Average: 6.73
Os Estados Unidos negam a entrada de imigrantes da América Latina Respondents: 242 Respondents: 239
Brazil wins for seventh time the Football (Soccer) World Cup    
Brasil gana por séptima vez la Copa Mundial de Fútbol Average: 68.3 Average: 3.09
O Brasil vence pela sétima vez a Copa do Mundo Respondents: 224 Respondents: 225
Latin America becomes the world leading producer of biofuels    
Latinoamérica se convierte en el primer productor mundial de biocombustibles Average: 60.3 Average: 7.40
A América Latina torna-se o maior produtor mundial de bicombustíveis Respondents: 245 Respondents: 243
Hugo Chavez consolidates his power in other countries beyond Venezuela    
Hugo Chávez consolida su poder en otros países además de Venezuela Average: 24.4 Average: 6.13
Hugo Chávez consolida seu poder em outros países além da Venezuela Respondents: 244 Respondents: 240
Most Latin American countries unite following the European Union model    
La mayoría de los países latinoamericanos se unen siguiendo el modelo de la Unión Europea Average: 47.7 Average: 7.73
A maioria dos países da América Latina se unem seguindo o modelo da União Européia Respondents: 246 Respondents: 242
At least two Latin American countries are split by indigenous ethnic conflicts    
Por lo menos dos países latinoamericanos sufren un proceso de secesión a partir de conflictos entre etnias indígenas Average: 37.2 Average: 5.30
Pelo menos dois países latino-americanos passam por um processo de secessão em virtude de conflitos entre etnias indígenas Respondents: 240 Respondents: 239
Orinoco Heavy Oil in Venezuela becomes the world's largest new source of energy    
La Cuenca del Orinoco en Venezuela se convierte en la mayor fuente de energía del mundo Average: 36.1 Average: 5.97
A bacia do Orenoco, na Venezuela, passa a ser a principal fonte de energia no mundo Respondents: 236 Respondents: 233
Castro's government survives him in Cuba    
El régimen de Fidel Castro perdura en Cuba mucho tiempo después de su muerte Average: 35.8 Average: 4.22
O regime de Fidel Castro em Cuba resiste por muito tempo após sua morte Respondents: 238 Respondents: 237
Guerrilla movements overtake at least two governments in the region (as was attempted in Colombia)    
Movimientos guerrilleros toman al menos dos gobiernos en la región (como se intentó en Colombia) Average: 31.1 Average: 5.50
Movimentos guerrilheiros assumem pelo menos dois governos da região (como aconteceu no caso da Colômbia) Respondents: 239 Respondents: 238
Latin American brain drain is reversed    
Se invierte la tendencia de la fuga de cerebros desde Latinoamérica Average: 45.9 Average: 7.30
Reverte-se a tendência de “fuga de cérebros” da América Latina Respondents: 237 Respondents: 234
Homicide and kidnapping rates in Latin America become the worst in the world    
Las tasas de homicidios y secuestros en Latinoamérica se convierten en las más altas del mundo Average: 54.1 Average: 7.15
As taxas de homicídios e seqüestros na América Latina torna-se a mais alta do mundo Respondents: 235 Respondents: 233
A common tax and legal system is implemented throughout Latin America    
Se implementa un sistema fiscal y legal común en toda Latinoamérica Average: 31.3 Average: 7.10
Um sistema jurídico e fiscal comum a toda a América Latina é implantado Respondents: 237 Respondents: 235
Free, wireless, broadband networks connect all major Latin American cities    
Redes de acceso gratuito wireless o inalámbricas conectan las mayores ciudades de Latinoamérica Average: 63.4 Average: 7.50
Redes gratuitas "wireless" (ou sem fio) conectam as principais cidades da América Latina Respondents: 239 Respondents: 238
Brazil and Mexico subdivide into smaller nations    
Brasil y México se dividen en naciones menores Average: 15.3 Average: 6.15
Brasil e México dividem-se em nações menores Respondents: 240 Respondents: 239
At least one Latin American country permanently joins the United Nations Security Council    
Al menos un país latinoamericano se incorpora de forma permanente al Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas Average: 70.5 Average: 5.96
Pelo menos um país latino-americano é incorporado ao Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas Respondents: 238 Respondents: 238
Regional electricity networks connect the whole continent    
Las redes eléctricas regionales conectan el continente en su totalidad Average: 58.4 Average: 7.13
As redes elétricas regionais conectam o continente em sua totalidade Respondents: 233 Respondents: 231
Latin American cartels for energy and raw materials are formed    
Se forman cárteles latinoamericanos de energía y de materias primas Average: 55.3 Average: 6.63
Formam-se cartéis latino-americanos de energia e de matérias-primas Respondents: 231 Respondents: 226
The Amazon forest recovers and deforestation is reversed    
La selva amazónica se recupera y la deforestación cesa Average: 42.2 Average: 7.17
A floresta amazônica se recupera e cessa o desmatamento Respondents: 241 Respondents: 239
Most Latin American countries eliminate armies following Costa Rican example    
La mayoría de países latinoamericanos eliminan sus ejércitos siguiendo el ejemplo de Costa Rica Average: 23.9 Average: 6.66
A maioria dos países latino-americanos eliminam os seus exércitos, seguindo o exemplo da Costa Rica Respondents: 238 Respondents: 236
Glaciers in the Andes mountains are reduced by 75% compared to 2000    
Los glaciares de los Andes se reducen en un 75% con respecto a los niveles del año 2000 Average: 61 Average: 7.01
As geleiras dos Andes são reduzidas em 75% comparadas aos níveis do ano 2000 Respondents: 230 Respondents: 225
"Made in Latin America" becomes symbol of quality and technology    
”Made in Latin America” se convierte en un símbolo de calidad y tecnología Average: 37.5 Average: 7.54
A rotulagem " made in América Latina " torna-se um símbolo de qualidade e tecnologia Respondents: 238 Respondents: 239
Latin America countries retreat from globalization and establish barriers that are designed to protect their markets    
Los países latinoamericanos se retiran del proceso globalizador y establecen barreras diseñadas para proteger sus mercados Average: 37.5 Average: 7.26
Os países latino-americanos retiram-se do processo de globalização e estabelecem barreiras destinadas a proteger os seus mercados Respondents: 237 Respondents: 236
Conflicts over water ownership have occurred (e.g. among Bolivia, Chile and Peru)    
Se producen conflictos sobre la propiedad del agua (p. ej. entre Bolivia, Chile y Perú) Average: 60.3 Average: 6.72
Deflagram-se conflitos pela propriedade da água (por exemplo, entre Bolívia, Chile e Peru) Respondents: 235 Respondents: 235
Tourism increases five fold from 2010 levels (includig eco-tourism)    
El turismo se incrementa por cinco con respecto a los niveles de 2010 (incluyendo el eco-turismo) Average: 64.9 Average: 7.37
A indústria do turismo cresce mais de cinco vezes em relação a 2010 (incluindo o eco-turismo) Respondents: 240 Respondents: 237
Food prices double in real terms (for example, from production of crop-based fuels)    
Los precios de los alimentos se incrementan por dos en términos reales     
(p. ej. desde la generalización de la producción de combustibles a partir de plantaciones de grano) Average: 63.3 Average: 7.67
O aumento do preço dos alimentos em termos reais por dois Respondents: 230 Respondents: 228
(por exemplo, desde a disseminação da produção de combustível a partir de plantios de milho)  
Women become presidents of a third of Latin American countries    
Un tercio de los países de Latinoamérica son presididos por mujeres Average: 61.9 Average: 5.11
Um terço dos países latino-americanos são liderados por mulheres Respondents: 235 Respondents: 234
A single regional currency has been proposed and accepted by most countries in Latin America.    
Se implanta una moneda única a nivel regional para la mayoría de países latinoamericanos Average: 45 Average: 7.11
Uma moeda única é introduzida em nível regional, integrando a maioria dos países latino-americanos Respondents: 238 Respondents: 236
Latin American Space Agency launches two astronauts to the Moon    
La Agencia Espacial Latinoamericana envía dos astronautas a la Luna Average: 28.2 Average: 4.20
A Agência Espacial da America Latina envia dois astronautas à Lua Respondents: 233 Respondents: 231
Regional organized crime is more powerful than some Latin American governments    
El crimen organizado a nivel regional es más poderoso que algunos gobiernos latinoamericanos Average: 60.9 Average: 7.54
O crime organizado em nível regional é mais poderoso do que alguns governos latino-americanos Respondents: 239 Respondents: 237
There are five domains on which scenarios are often based (STEEP: society, technology, economics, environment and politics).    
Existen cinco ámbitos en los que se suelen basar los escenarios (STEEP: sociedad, tecnología, economía, ecología y política).    
Há cinco áreas em que geralmente os cenários são baseados(STEEP: sociedade, tecnologia, economia, ecologia e política).    
  Average: 84.4 Average: 8.45
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to SOCIETY in our scenarios. Respondents: 234 Respondents: 229
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la SOCIEDAD en nuestros escenarios.    
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à SOCIEDADE na criação desses cenários    
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to TECHNOLOGY in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la TECNOLOGÍA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 84.5 Average: 8.14
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à TECNOLOGIA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 234 Respondents: 229
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to ECONOMICS in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la ECONOMÍA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 81.2 Average: 8.12
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à ECONOMIA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 227 Respondents: 226
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to ENVIRONMENT in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la ECOLOGÍA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 82.6 Average: 8.13
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à ECOLOGIA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 229 Respondents: 225
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to POLITICS in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la POLÍTICA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 74.2 Average: 7.64
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à POLÍTICA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 231 Respondents: 227

Report on Studies of Future Developments Important to World Water

Development Probability by 2020 Probability by 2030 Importance to Scenarios
Withdrawals for agriculture increase from 3,100 billion m3 to 4,500 billion m3 in 2030.      
Average: 46.43  Average: 58.33  Average: 9.86 
Respondents: 7  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 7 
     
Less than half of the gap between supply and demand for agricultural water is filled by conventional means (improvements in water productivity and conservation); the rest comes from non-traditional approaches (such as desalination).      
Average: 38.57  Average: 33.33  Average: 9.25 
Respondents: 7  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 8 
     
The potential for increasing yields from rainfed farming is realized by adaptation to climate variability (changed seeding season, or varieties or plants).      
Average: 49.22  Average: 55.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 8  Respondents: 8 
     
Agricultural croplands expand more than 20%, particularly in Latin America and Africa.      
Average: 58.33  Average: 63.57  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 7  Respondents: 7 
     
Expansion of agricultural lands is slowed significantly by ecological concerns.      
Average: 26.11  Average: 36.25  Average: 9.43 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 8  Respondents: 7 
     
Investments in infrastructure improve the production potential of rainfed farming, by, for example, improving rain-water collection and storage systems.      
Average: 57.22  Average: 74.00  Average: 8.86 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 7 
     
Grain stocks drop to zero as a reult, for example of several years of drought or some natural or manmade catastrophe.      
Average: 18.14  Average: 22.00  Average: 7.67 
Respondents: 7  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 6 
     
Creation of a "farmers without borders" to train farmers, particularly in poor countries, in new techniques and, for example, how to grow halophyte plants.      
Average: 47.78  Average: 59.38  Average: 8.63 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 8  Respondents: 8 
     
The problem of cropland invasion by aggressive weed doubles over today's situation.      
Average: 32.00  Average: 31.67  Average: 7.67 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 6 
     
Use of salt tolerant plant varieties as a response to increased salination of land proves to be effective; agricultural lands are thereby increased by 10%.      
Average: 38.33  Average: 43.75  Average: 7.80 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 4  Respondents: 5 
     
Increased use of mineral fertilizers in Sub-Sarahan Africa (from current 9 kg/ha to 50 kg/ha; the current world average is 100 kg/ha).      
Average: 36.25  Average: 46.43  Average: 8.17 
Respondents: 8  Respondents: 7  Respondents: 6 
     
Production from organic farming increases by a factor of ten (resulting from, for example, increased consumer interest, improved productivity and lowering of pollution compared to increased use of fertilizer).      
Average: 21.43  Average: 30.00  Average: 7.80 
Respondents: 7  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 5 
     
Nitrogen fertilizer prices continue to track energy prices.      
Average: 75.00  Average: 80.00  Average: 7.67 
Respondents: 8  Respondents: 7  Respondents: 6 
     
Seed varieties of high nitrogen-use efficiency are developed and used.      
Average: 80.00  Average: 50.00  Average: 10.00 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 1 
     
Large scale and routine use of precision farming expands in many developing countries (including the use of robot GPS steered tractors and the use of multi-spectral satellite scanners to determine soil condition, and fertilizer requirements).      
Average: 27.50  Average: 44.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 6  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 5 
     
Use of untreated waste water for irrigation continues in many developing countries despite the health risks.      
Average: 73.18  Average: 64.50  Average: 9.13 
Respondents: 11  Respondents: 10  Respondents: 8 
     
Large scale efforts are initiated in many developed countries to reduce food losses due to spoilage in the field, in storage and in transportation, with concomitant savings in water usage.      
Average: 53.89  Average: 65.00  Average: 9.14 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 8  Respondents: 7 
     
Water productivity in grain triples in some developing countries (e.g. China today produces 1 kg wheat and corn/cubic meter of water; Ethiopia, 0.1 to 0.2 kg/cubic meter.)      
Average: 62.78  Average: 71.11  Average: 9.25 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 9  Respondents: 8 
     
New plant strains are introduced that have improved productivity per unit of water as their goal.      
Average: 55.00  Average: 50.00  Average: 9.25 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 4 
     
Twenty five percent of the world's food production is lost due to an environmental catastrophe (natural or man-made).      
Average: 48.40  Average: 36.67  Average: 7.80 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 5 
     
Wealthy water scarce countries and others such as China and India, with large populations to feed, acquire agricultural lands in poorer countries as a means of improving their own food security.      
Average: 53.75  Average: 42.86  Average: 7.86 
Respondents: 8  Respondents: 7  Respondents: 7 
     
The slowing pace of deforestation continues (1990-2000: 16 million ha lost; 2000-2010 13 million ha lost).      
Average: 59.38  Average: 58.33  Average: 9.38 
Respondents: 8  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 8 
     
Monoculture argriculture grows 20% despite its risks.      
Average: 67.50  Average: 56.67  Average: 8.33 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 3 
     
Second generation bio-fuels are developed that do not compete with food crops, using saltwater for irrigation.      
Average: 31.11  Average: 51.25  Average: 8.25 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 8  Respondents: 8 
     
The number of countries that have fully implemented Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) grows to over 25.      
Average: 35.71  Average: 59.29  Average: 7.86 
Respondents: 7  Respondents: 7  Respondents: 7 
     
Food availability (average calories per capita, worldwide) declines 3% from factors that include climate change.      
Average: 26.67  Average: 46.00  Average: 7.33 
Respondents: 6  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 6 
     
There is a 30% reduction in agricultural output in Africa (from, for example, climate change).      
Average: 13.33  Average: 18.00  Average: 7.33 
Respondents: 6  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 6 
     
Sea levels rise by a global average of 25cm, flooding coastal areas, triggering coastal erosion, and loss of agricultural land on most continents.      
Average: 28.57  Average: 41.67  Average: 8.20 
Respondents: 7  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 5 
     
Seawater or saltwater agriculture provides 5% of the world's crop output.      
Average: 25.00  Average: 52.00  Average: 7.80 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 5 
     
Growth in the use of biofuels from terrestrial plants triples the gap between water demand and availability.      
Average: 21.00  Average: 31.25  Average: 7.50 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 4  Respondents: 4 
     
Global meat production more than doubles from 2000 levels.      
Average: 33.00  Average: 50.00  Average: 7.67 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 6 
     
Global livestock production begins to drop.      
Average: 13.33  Average: 26.00  Average: 8.00 
Respondents: 6  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 4 
     
New technology is introduced for producing meat without animals.      
Average: 18.40  Average: 33.00  Average: 7.00 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 4  Respondents: 4 
     
Vegetarianism grows by 100%.      
Average: 23.00  Average: 30.83  Average: 7.00 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 6 
     
Farming takes place in most major cities (e.g. vertical farming: dirt-free multi-level greenhouses that utilize hydroponics, use of vaccant lots, etc.) for food and fuel.      
Average: 31.25  Average: 58.00  Average: 8.80 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 5 
     
A dozen countries ban or limit grain exports.      
Average: 26.67  Average: 40.00  Average: 8.33 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 3 
     
Some cities satisfy 3% or more of food supply by farming on vacant lots.      
Average: 40.00  Average: 80.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 2 
     
World demand for organically grown food grows by a factor of ten.      
Average: 22.60  Average: 38.00  Average: 8.00 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 5  Respondents: 4 
     
The number of countries growing GM crops doubles.      
Average: 61.25  Average: 51.67  Average: 8.33 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 3 
     
GM seeds are developed and distributed at prices that are affordable to rural farmers in the poorest countries that are particularly affected by negative impacts caused by climate change and variability.      
Average: 60.00  Average: 75.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 1  Respondents: 1 
     
Multinational agribusiness corporations become effective global monopolies, strongly influencing food prices.      
Average: 70.00  Average: 75.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 2 
     
Use of halophytes for livestock feed is introduced, at least holding constant the amount of non-saline land required for animal agriculture.      
Average: 27.50  Average: 60.00  Average: 7.67 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 3 
     
A pandemic induced by livestock (e.g. mad cow, avian and swine flu) kills millions of people in the world.      
Average: 19.00  Average: 39.00  Average: 8.00 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 2 
     
A global animal pandemic occurs killing or requiring the slaughter of millions of animals.      
Average: 36.67  Average: 40.00  Average: 8.00 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 2 
     
Increases in food prices and food shortage cuts global food trade in half for more than five years.      
Average: 20.67  Average: 22.50  Average: 7.67 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 3 
     
Environmental services are valued and managed to improve the quality of agricultural water.      
Average: 53.00  Average: 87.00  Average: 10.00 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 2  Respondents: 3 
     
Algal-based biofuels largely replace those from terrestrial plants, including palm trees, soy, and sugar cane.      
Average: 26.25  Average: 45.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 3 
     
Labeling of produce to show total distance traveled sensitizes population to purchase local produce.      
Average: 38.00  Average: 58.75  Average: 7.50 
Respondents: 5  Respondents: 4  Respondents: 4 
     
Policies to encourage organic farming are introduced in at least half of developed countries by such means as removing subsidies on agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides.      
Average: 33.75  Average: 43.75  Average: 8.33 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 4  Respondents: 3 
     
Aquaculture produces as much food as fishing of the oceans and lakes.      
Average: 35.00  Average: 75.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 3  Respondents: 4  Respondents: 4 
     
Variable: Percent of water "saved" through virtual water trade between nations (considering the potential need of water for producing the respective food/goods)       
Average: 30.00  Average: 31.67  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 3 
     
Variable: Percentage of urban water and sanitation systems privately owned.      
Average: 13.50  Average: 8.00  Average: 8.00 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 1  Respondents: 2 
     
Variable: Improved access to potable water sources (% of population with access)       
Average: 92.50  Average: 70.00  Average: 9.50 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 1  Respondents: 2 
     
Variable: Percentage of water for industrial use.      
Average: 21.75  Average: 30.00  Average: 8.00 
Respondents: 4  Respondents: 3  Respondents: 2 
     
Variable: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (billion cubic meters)      
Average: 4,200.01  Average: 5,000.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 1  Respondents: 1 
     
Variable: Number of countries experiencing severe water scarcity.      
Average: 50.00  Average: 70.00  Average: 9.00 
Respondents: 2  Respondents: 1  Respondents: 1 
     

The 2008 State of the Future Index for the Republic of Korea with Implications for National Policy

  Export volume Days lost per year due to labor strikes (days per 1,000 workers) GNI per capita($) Improved water source (percent of population with access) Carbon dioxide emissions (metric tons per capita) Fertility rate (children per woman over her lifetime) Percent unemployment Corruption (percent of survey reporting no bribery) S Korean income disparity between rich and poor Patents per year (number) R&D expenditures by government and private sector (percent of GDP) Energy consumption per GDP (metric tons oil equivalent/million $) Seats held by women in parliaments (percent) Dependency on foreign energy sources (percent of energy consumed)
[Unit: 1000$] (CPI/score) (Gini)
1985 30,283,122 97 2309 66.6 6.28 1.67 4 8.14 0.223 22703 1.674 627.19 2.53 76.2
1986 34,714,470 97 2643 68.6 6.46 1.6 3.8 7.79 0.232 23746 1.732 539.63 2.53 78.2
1987 47,280,927 97 3321 71 6.64 1.55 3.1 7.42 0.24 26260 1.789 466.98 2.53 80
1988 60,696,388 97 4435 74.1 6.81 1.56 2.5 7.04 0.248 27774 1.84 375.95 2.01 83.2
1989 62,377,174 97 5418 77.7 6.99 1.58 2.6 6.65 0.256 34824 1.89 358.61 2.01 85.5
1990 65,015,731 97 6147 78.5 7.17 1.59 2.4 6.27 0.262 37717 1.87 357.61 2.01 87.9
1991 71,870,122 97 7105 80.1 7.34 1.74 2.4 5.9 0.269 37599 1.92 348.81 2.01 91.3
1992 76,631,515 97 7527 80 7.52 1.78 2.5 5.55 0.275 43933 2.03 355.16 1.34 93.6
1993 82,235,866 97 8177 81.1 7.69 1.67 2.9 5.22 0.281 43525 2.22 352.73 1.34 94.8
1994 96,013,237 97 9459 82 7.87 1.67 2.5 4.92 0.285 39104 2.44 318.15 1.34 96.4
1995 125,057,988 91 11432 82.9 8.05 1.65 2.1 4.29 0.284 46797 2.37 292.21 1.34 96.8
1996 129,715,137 96 12197 83.6 8.22 1.58 2 5.02 0.291 46656 2.42 310.91 3.68 97.3
1997 136,164,204 94 11176 84.5 9.01 1.54 2.6 4.29 0.283 67117 2.48 520.51 3.68 97.6
1998 132,313,143 119 7355 85.2 7.84 1.47 7 4.2 0.316 84542 2.34 413.99 3.68 97.1
1999 143,685,459 109 9438 86.1 8.51 1.42 6.3 3.8 0.32 52604 2.25 392.32 3.68 97.2
2000 172,267,510 144 10841 87.1 9.1 1.47 4.1 4 0.317 49694 2.39 419.9 6.35 97.2
2001 150,439,144 79 10160 87.8 9.31 1.3 3.8 4.2 0.319 52333 2.59 422.92 6.35 97.3
2002 162,470,528 111 11499 88.7 9.29 1.17 3.1 4.5 0.312 67823 2.53 366.01 6.35 97.1
2003 193,817,443 90 12717 89.4 9.45 1.19 3.4 4.3 0.306 74403 2.63 355.48 6.35 96.9
2004 253,844,672 81 14206 90.1 9.61 1.16 3.5 4.5 0.31 82113 2.85 294.96 13.38 96.7
2005 284,418,743 97 16413 90.7 9.81 1.08 3.5 5 0.31 77209 2.99 285.74 13.38 96.8
2006 325,464,848 96 18372 89.8 9.98 1.13 3.3 5.1 0.351 79985 2.883 322.862 13.38 96.255
2007 312,060,564 95 16212 90.3 10.16 1.12 3.48 5.47 0.334 82761 2.941 318.178 14.983 95.896
2008 336,709,651 95 16822 90.9 10.34 1.11 3.45 5.82 0.337 85537 2.998 313.631 16.562 95.485
2009 362,450,990 94 17432 91.5 10.51 1.09 3.41 6.18 0.341 88313 3.056 309.214 18.181 95.023
2010 389,284,580 93 18042 92.1 10.69 1.08 3.36 6.56 0.345 91089 3.113 304.922 19.832 94.51
2011 417,210,422 92 18652 92.8 10.87 1.07 3.31 6.95 0.348 93864 3.171 300.749 21.506 93.946
2012 446,228,515 91 19262 93.6 11.04 1.06 3.25 7.33 0.352 96640 3.229 296.691 23.193 93.331
2013 476,338,860 91 19872 94.4 11.22 1.05 3.18 7.71 0.356 99416 3.286 292.743 24.885 92.666
2014 507,541,457 90 20482 95.2 11.39 1.04 3.11 8.06 0.359 102192 3.344 288.9 26.571 91.949
2015 539,836,305 89 21092 96.2 11.57 1.02 3.03 8.39 0.363 104968 3.401 285.159 28.243 91.182
2016 573,223,405 88 21702 97.2 11.75 1.01 2.95 8.68 0.367 107743 3.459 281.514 29.892 90.364
2017 607,702,756 87 22312 98.4 11.92 1 2.86 8.94 0.37 110519 3.516 277.964 31.508 89.496

2009 State of the Future Index Data

Development Probability by 2019
A nuclear accident such as Three Mile Island (causes many nuclear nations to de-nuclearize). 10
Bad weather (storms, hurricanes, floods) cause wide spread crop failures in at least one year 25
Canada begins to export water 35
Carbon sequestration used by 25% of carbon-based industries 50
Conversion of significant desert areas into green lands adding 5% to global arable lands 15
Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20% globally 25
Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3%. 75
Development of fast growing trees satisfies demand for wood without reducing the acreage in forests 35
Economic development in China and India increase the CO2 burden by 20% 20
Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water; drought in others, makes water 5% less available on the whole. 50
Global engineering solutions initiated to reduce greenhouse gasses (e.g. iron added to ocean surfaces) prove inadequate and are abandoned. 20
Growth of solar, wind power, other “green” energy sources reduces burning in energy production by 5% 50
International sanctions for countries that cut forests unnecessarily 35
Large-scale reforestation programs adopted by most critical countries 50
New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10% per unit of agricultural production. 20
New genetic varieties of fast growing trees and plants are developed 75
Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies available in the poorest regions 50
Terrorists contaminating water supplies; supplies remain unusable for decades. 10