Environmental Change and Biodiversity

Global Challenges excerpt from the 2010 State of the Future report

This section includes regional views on the following challenges:

Sustainable Development

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? [Challenge 1]

Water

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? [Challenge 2]


Sustainable Development

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? [Challenge 1]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: Southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its maize crop by 2030 due to climate change. Forest loss accelerates desertification and soil erosion, making the continent even more vulnerable to climate change. Re-afforestation, saltwater agriculture along the coasts, and solar energy in the Sahara could be massive sources of sustainable growth.

Asia and Oceania: China is the world's largest CO2 emitter, but half of the recent rise in China's CO2 emissions is caused by the manufacture of goods for other countries. China's newer and planned coal plants are reducing its pollution per kwh. China and India lose 12% and 10% respectively of their GDP due to environmental damage. Agriculture is now China's biggest source of pollution. China satisfies 97% of the global demand of rare metals, critical for manufacturing of high-tech green tech such as solar panels. GHG emissions from Indonesia, the world third largest emitter today, could rise by 57% by 2030, mostly due to continuing logging and conversion of natural ecosystems for agriculture and industrial plantations. Some 40% of the reefs in the Coral Triangle, which contain 75% of the world's coral species and sustain the lives of more than 100 million people in the region, have already been lost. Australia may begin carbon trading in 2011.

Europe: GHG emissions covered under EU ETS fell by 11.6% in 2009 due to recession and changing gas prices. The EU is on track to meet the Kyoto targets of 8% reduction, but whether its members can meet the 20% reduction target by 2020 is still uncertain. Iceland plans to become carbon-neutral by 2025. The global carbon market grew to $144 billion, up 6% from 2008. Of those, $118 billion are from EU ETS. France abandoned the idea of introducing a carbon tax after the Conseil d'Etat ruled it unconstitutional. Climate change may benefit Russian agriculture and increase the country's economic output by 1.1% if the world temperature increases by 2.5°C.

Latin America: Although the deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon is slowing, expansion of its agriculture and livestock, fire, drought, and logging could severely damage or eliminate nearly 60% of the rainforest by 2030, releasing 55.5–96.9 billion tons of CO2. South America has 40% of the planet's biodiversity and 25% of the forests. Farming for biofuel versus food is debated in Brazil while new oil reserves are discovered. Attacks on land tenure and the breakup of farms into smaller parcels are generating irreversible ecological damage in most countries.

North America: The U.S.-initiated Copenhagen Accord includes an agreement for richer countries to contribute $10 billion a year to developing countries in 2010–12 for climate change mitigation and adaption and to mobilize $100 billion in long-term climate financing by 2020. Exxon is investing $600 million in algae for biofuels. U.S. GHG emissions decreased by 5.9% from 2008 to 2009, and greater than the 2.9% decrease in the previous year. Permafrost temperature in northern Alaska increased about 4–7°C during the last century, almost half of it during the last 20 years; data from the northern Mackenzie Valley in the continuous permafrost zone of Canada show a 1°C increase in permafrost temperatures at depths of 20–30 meters since the 1990s.

Graph: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)

Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center with Millennium Project estimates

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Water

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? [Challenge 2]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: Foreign aid covers up to 90% of some sub-Saharan African countries' water and sanitation expenditures, although water and sanitation spending account for only 1.5% of total aid money. Without policy changes, this region will not meet the MDG target on water until 2040 and the one on sanitation until 2076. The provision of a Free Basic Sanitation Service to all households in South Africa is not financially viable for all categories of municipalities. Population growth and climate change could cut water per person in the Middle East and North Africa in half by 2050. The Smart Water for Green Schools project builds rainwater harvesting systems and ecological latrines in schools and raises awareness of hygiene and sanitation in Ghana. Since the majority of Africa depends on rain-fed agriculture, upgrading rain-fed systems and improving agricultural productivity will immediately improve millions of lives.

Asia and Oceania: Drought in Yunnan, China, causes food shortage among 700 million people and economic loss of 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion). More than 70% of China's waterways and 90% of its groundwater are contaminated; 33% of China's river and lake water is unfit for even industrial use; deep-groundwater tables have dropped by up to 90 meters in the Hai river basin. The water situation in China is expected to continue to get worse for the next 7–10 years under the best case scenarios. With only 8% of the world's fresh water, China has to meet the needs of 22% of the world's population. The Asian Development Bank issued a novel bond to finance investments in the water sector which will support water-related investments over 2011-20. Projects are under way to transport water from the south to the north. Forced migration due to water shortages has begun in China, and India should be next. Glacier-fed rivers shrinking due to climate change and other water issues have implications for India-Pakistan-China relations. Pakistan is seeking neutral arbitration on the Kishanganga hydroelectric project that India is developing. The Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, Ganges, and Indus are among the 10 most polluted rivers in the world. India feeds 17% of the world's people on less than 5% of the world's water and 3% of its farmland. Two-pit toilet technology has increased the rate of access to a toilet in rural India from 27% in 2005 to 59% today, yet 700 million are still without indoor toilets in India. India's urban water demand is expected to double and industrial demand to triple by 2025. Saltwater intrusion into Bangladeshi coastal rivers reaches 100 miles inland and will increase with climate change. Israel takes 80% of the mountain aquifer, the only sizable source of fresh water in the West Bank. Chapter 10 of the Middle East Geneva Accords explains how to resolve Israeli-Palestinian water issues. The large stretches of the River Jordan could dry up by 2011. A $1.7-billion desalination plant opened in Sydney, Australia, can meet up to 15% of the area's water needs.

Europe: The EU Water Framework Directive has not had the desired impact yet. About 15% of the EU population has been affected by water scarcity, and some member states have begun to suffer "permanent scarcity across the whole country." Over 80% of the original floodplain area along the Danube and its main tributaries has been lost as a result of dams, pollution, and climate change. The Belgian government recognizes water as a human right, and its development aid will focus on water. Water utilities in Germany pay farmers to switch to organic operations because it costs less than removing farm chemicals from water supplies. Spain is the first country to use the water footprint analysis in policymaking, and it invested $900 million in 2008–09 for 46 projects in Latin America. The world's largest reserves of fresh water are in Russia, which could export to China and Middle Asia, yet 30–60% of Russia's surface water is now polluted.

Latin America: The region has 28–31% of the world's fresh water, yet 50–80 million of the region's 580 million people have no access to safe drinking water, 125 million lack sanitation services, and 40% live in areas that hold only 10% of the region's water resources. Glaciers are shrinking, risking the region's water, agriculture, and energy security; 68% of the region's electricity is from hydroelectric sources and 60% of its water is used for irrigation. Water crises will occur in megacities within a generation unless new water supplies are generated, lessons from both successful and unsuccessful approaches to privatization are applied, and legislation is updated for more reliable, transparent, and consistent integrated water resources management. Water and sanitation problems cost the region an estimated $29 billion a year. Transboundary surface and groundwater aquifers will have to be shared. The region is projected to increase its annual water/sanitation investments 52% by 2015.

North America: More than 30 states are in litigation with their neighbors over water. One-third of the continental U.S. is suffering abnormally dry conditions. Each kilowatt-hour of electricity in the US requires about 25 gallons of water for cooling, making power plants the second largest water consumer in the country (39% of all water withdrawals) after agriculture. Western Canada's tar sands consume an estimated 20–45 cubic meters of water per megawatt-hour, nearly 10 times that for conventional oil extraction. Canada is mapping its underground water supplies to help policymakers prevent water shortages. Government agricultural water subsidies should be changed to encourage conservation. The Water for the World U.S. Congressional draft bill would bring drinking water and sanitation to 100 million poor people around the world by 2016.

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