Environmental Change and Biodiversity

Global Challenges Excerpt from the 2010 State of the Future reports

Sustainable Development

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? [Challenge 1]

Water

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? [Challenge 2]


Sustainable Development

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? [Challenge 1]

 -- Brief Overview --

Climate change threatens the well-being of all humans, especially the poor, who have contributed the least to global warming. They are the most vulnerable to climate change's impacts because they depend on agriculture and fisheries, and they lack financial and technological resources to cope. By 2015 climate change is expected to reduce wheat yields by 30% and rice yields by 15% and to increase their prices by 194% and 121% respectively. The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behaviors, the next 100 years could be disastrous. Climate change adaptation and mitigation policies should be integrated into an overall sustainable development strategy. Without sustainable growth, billions more people will be condemned to poverty, and much of civilization could collapse, which is unnecessary since we know enough already to tackle climate change while increasing economic growth.

From 1970 to 2000, atmospheric CO2 concentration increased 1.5 ppm each year, and since then, it has risen 2.1 ppm per year. Last year it climbed even faster, by almost 3 ppm, reaching 392.4 ppm by April 2010. Consequently, the world is warming faster than the latest IPCC projections. Even the most recent estimates may understate reality since they do not take into account permafrost melting. By 2050 another 2.3 billion people could be added to the planet and income per capita could more than double, dramatically increasing greenhouse gases. The Copenhagen Accord achieved a consensus on carbon reduction targets that are internationally verifiable, for the first time. It focused on international cooperation to limit atmospheric CO2 to 450 ppm by 2100, so that the global temperature does not rise by more than 2ºC by 2100. However, scientists have pointed out that the voluntary targets currently declared by major emitters are not low enough to hold CO2 to 450 ppm. There is a growing fear that the target itself is inadequate—that the world needs to lower CO2 to 350 ppm or else the momentum of climate change could grow beyond human ability to reverse it.

Glaciers are melting, polar ice caps are thinning, and coral reefs are dying. Some 30% of fish stocks have already collapsed, and 21% of mammal species and 70% of plants are under threat. Oceans absorb 30 million tons of CO2 each day, increasing their acidity. The number of dead zones—areas with too little oxygen to support life—has doubled every decade since the 1960s. Mangrove forests, salt marshes, and seagrass beds cover less than 1% of the world's seabed but sequester over half the carbon buried in the ocean floor. The habitats of these plants are being lost at a rate of almost 7% a year. Human consumption of natural resources is 30% larger than nature's capacity to regenerate. Global ecosystem services are valued at $16–64 trillion, which far exceeds the sums spent to protect them.

It is time for a U.S.–China Apollo-like 10-year goal and global R&D strategy to address climate change, focusing on new technologies like electric cars, saltwater agriculture, carbon capture and reuse, solar power satellites (a Japanese national goal), animal protein without animals, maglev trains, urban systems ecology, and a global climate change collective intelligence to support better decisions and keep track of it all (See Chapter 3). These technologies would have to supplement other key policy measures including carbon taxes, cap and trade schemes, reduced deforestation, industrial efficiencies, cogeneration, conservation, recycling, and switching government subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The EU has shown that it is possible to continue economic growth while reducing GHG emissions.

Scientists are studying how to create sunshades in space, add iron powder to the oceans to absorb CO2, build towers to suck CO2 from the air, sequester CO2 underground, and reuse carbon at power plants. Other suggestions include retrofitting coal plants to burn leaner and to capture and reuse carbon emissions, raising fuel efficiency standards, growing meat without animals, and increasing vegetarianism (the livestock sector emits more GHGs than transportation does). Other mechanisms could include taxes for carbon, international financial transactions, urban congestion, international travel, and environmental footprints. Such taxes could support international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies. Massive public educational efforts via popular film, television, music, games, and contests should stress what we can do.

Given the difficulty of reaching a unanimous agreement, some argue that alternative forums such as G-20, the Montreal Protocol, or Major Economies Forum may be a more realistic platform to manage climate change. Without a global strategy to address climate change, the environmental movement may turn on the fossil fuel industries. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for damages caused by greenhouse gases. Last year the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals allowed a group of Mississippi landowners to pursue their lawsuit against over 30 major oil, electric, and coal companies for contributing to rising sea levels and Hurricane Katrina's destruction. Large reinsurance companies estimate the annual economic loss due to climate change could reach $300 billion per year within a decade. Climate change could be accelerated by dangerous feedbacks: melting ice/snow on tundra reflects less light and absorbs more heat, releasing more methane, increasing global warming, melting more tundra; warming oceans water release methane hydrates from the seabed to the air, warming the atmosphere, melting more ice and warming the water, releasing more methane hydrates; the use of methane hydrates or otherwise disturbing deeper sea beds releases more methane to the atmospheric and accelerates global warming; Antarctic melting reflects less light, absorbs more heat, and increases melting; and the Greenland ice sheet (with 20% of world's ice) slides into the ocean. Construction of nuclear power plants has begun to increase, although the risk of accidents, waste management, and terrorist usage are not sufficiently addressed. Challenge 1 will be addressed seriously when green GDP increases while poverty and global greenhouse gas emissions decrease for five years in a row.

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Water

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? [Challenge 2]

 -- Brief Overview --

An additional 1.3 billion people gained access to improved drinking water and 500 million got better sanitation since 1990, yet 900 million still lack clean water and 2.6 billion lack adequate sanitation. By 2025 about 3 billion people could face water scarcity (defined as fewer than 1,000 cubic meters per person per year) due to climate change, population growth, and increasing demand for water per capita. Some 2.2 million children under five die due to unsafe water, inadequate sanitation, and the lack of hygiene every year. Diarrheal disease in children under 15 has a greater impact than HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis combined. Some 90% of developing countries' wastewater is discharged untreated directly into rivers, lakes, or oceans, contributing to the rapid expansion of de-oxygenated dead zones. About 2 million tons of sewage and industrial and agricultural waste is annually discharged into the world's waterways.

Unless major political and technological changes occur, global water demand could be 40% more than current supply by 2030. This would cause conflicts over tradeoffs among agricultural, urban, and ecological uses of water, along with mass migrations and wars. However, water-sharing agreements have been reached even among people in conflict and have led to cooperation in other areas. The UN estimates that $50–60 billion annually between now and 2030 is needed to avoid future water shortages; WHO estimates that every dollar invested in improved sanitation and water produces economic benefits that range from $3 to $34, depending on the region and types of technologies applied.

Agriculture already accounts for 70% of human usage of fresh water, but it needs even more to feed growing populations with increasing incomes. Some 30% of global cereal production could be lost in current production regions due to water scarcity, yet new areas in Russia and Canada could open due to climate change. Cooling systems for energy production require large amounts of water. Energy demand may increase 40% in 20 years; coupled with increased food demands, dramatic changes in water management will be required. Global demand for meat may increase by 50% by 2025 and double by 2050, further accelerating the demand for water per capita. Nature also needs sufficient water to be viable to support all life. Breakthroughs in desalination, like pressurization of seawater to produce vapor jets, filtration via carbon nanotubes, and reverse osmosis, are needed along with less costly pollution treatment and better water catchments. Future demand for fresh water could be reduced by saltwater agriculture on coastlines, producing meat without growing animals, increasing vegetarianism, and the reuse of treated water.

Development planning should integrate the lessons learned from producing more food with less water via drip irrigation and precision agriculture, rainwater collection and irrigation, watershed management, selective introduction of water pricing, and successful community-scale projects around the world. Plans should also help convert degraded or abandoned farmlands to forest or grasslands; invest in household sanitation, reforestation, water storage, and treatment of industrial effluents in multipurpose water schemes; and construct eco-friendly dams, pipelines, and aqueducts to move water from areas of abundance to scarcity. Putting sanitation facilities in village schools could bring girls back to school. Just as it has become popular to calculate someone's carbon footprint, people could calculate their "water footprint."

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