E-1 Related Opportunities:
From the 15 global opportunities identified by the Millennium Project:
1. Achieving sustainable development
2. Increasing acceptance of global long-term perspectives in policy making
3. Expanding potential for scientific and technological breakthroughs
4. Transforming authoritarian regimes to democracies
5. Encouraging diversity and shared ethical values
6. Reducing the rate of population growth
7. Evolving strategies for world peace and security
8. Developing alternative sources of energy
9. Globalizing the convergence of information and communications technologies
10. Increasing advances in biotechnology
11. Encouraging economic development through ethical market economies
12. Increasing economic autonomy of women and other groups
13. Promoting the inquiry into new and sometimes counter-intuitive ideas
14. Pursuing promising space projects
15. Improving institutions
The following are related to the Environmental Security:
Never before has world opinion
been so united on a single goal as it is on achieving sustainable development.
Environmental consciousness is pervasive; the concept of sustainability
has affected politics and national decision-making everywhere; and the
Kyoto Summit on Climate Change has intensified these views. Concepts like
industrial ecology, ecological engineering, nature-oriented technology,
and zero emissions research are rapidly becoming accepted. International
cooperation among ecological research centers with standardized data protocols
and integration of global environmental research and satellite data are
making it possible to model and monitor the earth-as-a-whole. Ecological
conditions have improved where vigorous environmental protection programs
have been implemented. There is an unprecedented opportunity to galvanize
global opinion into actions.
Never before has the world
been as aware of a common threat to humanity as the unsustainability of
present patterns of resource use and development... SD represents the third
"global revolution" (after agricultural and industrial revolution) and
it is a process for at least several decades and it is necessary "to keep
direction"… It will occur in due course (although not without effort);
it will represent a triumph of the human spirit (in much the same way as
the aversion of nuclear war). It is inevitable… Although the world may
agree on the general goal of sustainable development (S-D), the Kyoto conference
on Climate Change showed a fundamental split between the First and Third
Worlds on implementation.
The Third World argues that
the first has already developed to a plateau that will allow them to cutback
on emissions and that in their development process they have already contributed
the majority of greenhouse gasses. The Third World has not yet reached
that plateau of development. Limits on emissions during the early development
process have a different economic impact than limits during the more mature
development plateau. Limits can be equally applied when nations have equal
development. Limits help insure first world's stability but can prevent
the Third World's growth. But a deal can be made. The Third Word wants
insurance that they will have the technology (through technology cooperation,
loans, and grants) to achieve cleaner economic growth, then they will agree
to limits... Japan offers the lowest possible interest rates for "green"
technology projects. USAID has proposed $10 billion in anti-greenhouse
activities, others will come... Common recognition of sustainable development
as the top goal has been reached only among governmental sectors, administrative
leaders and intellectuals... Although the term "sustainable development"
(popularized by the Brundtland Commission in its 1987 report, Our Common
Future), focused on environmental sustainability, the concept really
has four interdependent and necessary elements: financial, economic, environmental,
and social. The actions listed below in this section did not acknowledge
the other three... SD is "not just environment, but also development" in
developing regions etc. The description should reflect aspects of economy,
sociology and some geopolitical views (geopolitical regions)
Sustainability has three
components: livability, employment, and social cohesion, whereas local
authorities consider it means: water, sewerage, and power. Planning is
a 20-year cycle and politics a 2-5 year one; sustainable development tends
to fall between the two… There are two main inaccuracies in the way the
concept of sustainable development is addressed today: 1) It is one-side
oriented, only taking into consideration the human influence on the ecosystem,
when in reality, it is an active interrelationship between the two - and
2) misapprehension of sustainable development as a development without
crises, disregarding the cyclic dynamic of the social-environmental evolution,
which history proved, inevitably includes crises. It is an effective relationship
between the technological, economical, social and ecological crises...
After the Amazonian rain forest, the Congo basin will be the next focus
for such trade-offs to be considered... Sustainable development answers
the needs of the present generation without hindering the development of
future generations. International strategy for sustainable development
is hampered by institutional and contractual problems related to international
law, social structures, and jurisdictional difficulties within the UN system.
The EU has made great advances by recognizing Agenda 21 and introducing
sustainability policies in transportation, agriculture, energy, tourism,
and industry. Italy has introduced occupational and economic benefits through
the development of technological innovation and environmental policies
such as the destruction of cars older than 10 years, recycling (paper,
glass, and plastics, and protecting Natural Parks).
Anhui Province, in China,
has reforested the entire province in 8 years. It closed 475 enterprises
that seriously polluted the Hui River in 1996. By the end of 1997, 229
of these had completed their pollution control, 49 were still constructing
pollution control facilities, and 30 were permanently closed or switched
to a new industry.
This is only a scientific-technological
approach, missing the political, philosophical, and axiological one. It
is necessary to include the change of political patterns and economic indicators,
and the values related to the sustainable living and the acceptation of
conclusions of the Dobjiš Conference /1991/ and Dobjiš Assessment - Dobjiš
Conference was the basic impulse for sustainable development, but was forgotten….
When corporations' stock price is affected by their impact on the environment,
then you will see corporations change more dramatically. If corporations
were listed high or low for their exposure to environmental liabilities,
then stock prices could be affected.
Sustainable Development and
Ethical Finance and Capitalism are interlocked as one issue. This interlinkage
is extremely relevant in today's business world…. Include agriculture,
nutritional sustainability, food security need to be included. Greed makes
it unsustainable in developed countries and poverty makes it so in developing
countries…. SD is not priority on national political agenda, countries
have their particular interests…. Only a small part of the society is focusing
on sustainable development. In the Third World countries and also in postcommunist
countries, sustainable development is of peripheral interest. Concepts
such as industrial ecology, ecological engineering, nature-oriented technology
and zero emissions research are ignored. There are no research institutions
oriented on these concepts, the governments and the managers, the enterprises,
have no interest in it.
Sustainability is a real
goal and one that is attainable, but there's a long way to go to accomplish
it. Latin America is doing much better than in the past as their population
growth has come under control and they have managed to create linkages
to their own resource base... The prevailing attitude is one of trying
to find external solutions, rather than changing one's way of living...
Global eco-crises take place when the rhythm of population growth is faster
than the dynamic of production. In its effort to satisfy the growing needs
of population, the technology develops uncontrolled, at the expense of
Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:
About half the actions suggested
below repeat and hence reinforce those covered in Agenda 21. (They are:
1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.11, 1.13, 1.14, 1.15, 1.16, 1.17, 1.19, 1.25, and the
second part of 1.5.) The new suggestions can be thought of as being complementary
to Agenda 21. Additionally, this section adds to the sustainable development
discussions a distilled range of thinking that can help identify areas
of agreement for action...
1.1 Further develop models
and simulations to forecast potential environmental "hot spots".
This should be developed
by the UN Office for Sustainable Development in cooperation with UNEP and
results should be reported to the UN General Assembly...The Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is doing this. [NASA's Mission to Planet
Earth, now called Earth Science, is integrating satellite data with earth-based
data to create global models for monitoring changes.]... Yes, but once
we get the top 8 or 10 hot spots, we have to get together on the actions
and set priorities... Forecasts are the starting point of sustainable development,
but we should not forecast only " hot spots". We should develop complex
forecasts that take in consideration the nature and the cycle of "hot spots"
and have a picture of the future as a whole and point out the "hot spots"
as these are manifestations of eco-crises…. The most significant area in
which sustainability is and will remain a problem is the health care sector.
Quality health care is essentially becoming a human right all over the
In developing countries,
the national environmental units should act after initiation by regional
political and substantive organizations... Use different term than "hot
spots." "What if" statements leading to scenarios have more powerful influences
on decisions than models…. Developing processes to solve problems is more
important than creating models…. Shortage of good science, and accessibility
to data prevents its achievement. Environment is also too complex for this….
This action should be linked with forecasts and programs for development.
We need goals that are international and national, long and medium- range
with special mechanisms for their development and implementation... World
society should think about Earth as a global ecosystem. The countries that
might be defined as "hot spots" do not have financial resources for harmonious
development. We need international foundations. Not only temporary international
foundations to solve temporary/partial problems, but a system of international
foundations for early warning and implementation of global, trans-national
1.2 Create (via UNEP,
ICSU, and possibly WTO) international scientific boards to define terms,
standards, and measurements necessary for commonly applied environmental
policies such as tax incentives, labels, and others listed below. Begin
with the easiest standards such as protection of resources like forests
and fisheries, and replacement of depleted stocks.
This is critical for real
collaboration... Use teleconferences, or Internet…. Since the use of labels
for products is effective, it is essential to work out common international
criteria…. Maybe IPCC can do this, but it will be hard to get global agreement.
We should also define the economic value of watersheds, forests, etc….
WTO should create and enforce environmental standards in trade. Developing
countries will see this as a new form of protectionism. UNEP should do
the research but would need a new treaty to have enforcement powers. In
the meantime, WTO is the only potential leader to enforce results of such
research...Theoretically it is a good action, but in practice, the standards
that are acceptable for USA or Germany are not acceptable for Russia, China
or Latin American countries. It is not possible to change the technological
base in these countries immediately...
1.3 Include sanctions
and enforcement mechanisms and procedures with any environmental policy
recommendation; e.g. the Framework Convention on Climate Change should
include ways to punish offenders.
This is on the agenda of
the next Climate Change conference…. The UN Office of Sustainable Development
working with the Secretary General of the UN can create treaties with enforcement
powers that recognized both the poorer and richer regions' interests...
ECOSOC should lead the policy for socially binding sanctions...The sanctions
should be commensurable with compensation for harm. These sanctions should
be based on the information of international ecosystem scanning not regulated
by countries... The funds raised from sanctions should be transferred to
the international foundations to finance environmental programs…. International
law is a mix of politics and rules - even the Comprehensive Nuclear Test
Ban Treaty is only enforced through appeals to the UN Security Council.
It is better to have agreed terms without enforcement powers than to have
no agreement...Fines are the only way to punish offenders. Sanctions against
a whole country could be counter productive and punish peoples' development.
The Ozone treaty worked pretty well, but there is a black market in CFS's….
Enforcement mechanisms in the WTO and other UN organizations are necessary.
Governments could deny political
insurance (OPIC in the US) for businesses in their country working in another
country on environmentally unsound projects…. Create positive collaboration
and incentives to create a new way of doing business…. Third world engagement
is missing…. It is not workable in developing countries that are struggling
to generate enough food and jobs.
1.4 Spread ISO 14000 to
ISO 14000 is a quality control
and performance-tracking mechanism. Inherently, ISO 14001 is a certification
of good management, not of environmental stewardship or sustainability.
ISO 14000's success will depend greatly on how good the underlying EMS
goals -- established independently by each participating corporation --
are. ISO 14000 has great potential if companies can be motivated to orient
their EMS goals by scientifically established international, national,
regional, and local priorities. Procedures and methods should be developed
to: a) establish such sustainability priorities through scientifically
advised, participatory decision-making; b) translate priorities into EMS
goals; and c) report and aggregate EMS achievements as a component of community
sustainability indicators. Add to ISO 14000 the initiative of the implementation
of ecologically sound production or sustainable business frameworks (such
as The Natural Step) and the Business Charter for Sustainable Development
of the International Chamber of Commerce (<http://www.iccwbo.org/Cust/html/The%20Business%20Charter.htm>).
Such frameworks may be seen
as complementary to ISO 14000 and also can be implemented instead of ISO
14000. They are non-exclusive, and since all of these are voluntary and
quite flexible, their degree of success in each case depends much more
on the sincerity and commitment of the adopting enterprise than on specific
content and formulation of the framework. ISO 14000 certainly is the most
formalistic of these instruments, but what counts the most in the end is
the extent to which management and the work force adopt the spirit of the
plan and live by it...ISO 14000 is fully voluntary now. But for those companies
that adopt it, it can save money...Ecological standards should not be common
for all, but adapted to countries' conditions... Link to international
assistance and relations. Regional banks (ADB in Africa, etc. could do
the training but would need political leadership of the OAU.)...This is
a good way to track your progress and current situation, but not a good
way into the future... Motorola in Scotland realized a cost saving of 2
million per year when they adopted the standard…. Good, but can become
also instrument of trade discrimination…. Very important, has autocatalytic
1.5 Initiate tariffs and/or
taxes on polluting products or technologies, with revenues collected to
be used to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safe technologies;
provide incentives for environmentally sound technologies, goods, and equipment.
This will require an international
umpire like UNEP and WTO...NGOs will have to lobby governments to create
this via trade agreements...Yes, you have to create the punitive actions
to generate the income for the incentives. Governments and corporations
should pool money to give grants to create more environmentally friendly
products... We should tax resource usage and not incomes. There should
be different rates for different energy sources. Full cost accounting should
become the norm. It is stupid for government to subsidize tobacco, a single-use
plant which has a high impact on the environment and pay for cancer research
and treatment, while banning hemp, a multi-use plant with a low impact
on the environment...Some preferential measures on tariffs ought to be
worked out for developing countries…. It is occurring to some degree now….
There are limited possibilities internationally…. Expensive, developed
countries should take the lead.
1.6 Establish a system
of national accounts that includes the economic impact of the depletion
of natural resources.
This is very important, but resources economy and environmental economy are not yet fully understood by the public…. The system of national accounts, which is adopted by about 50 countries today, does not reflect the ecological domain. We should estimate the ecological problems, the resources engaged to solve them and estimate the results.
A USGS report tried to establish
the quantitative basis for such a system. .... World Bank and the regional
development banks that currently train governments in environmental impact
assessment could add this element...In Africa, this will require OAU leadership
to give mandates to regional organizations like UNECA and ADB for technical
assistance and training...
1.7 Encourage the placement
of labels on all consumer products providing information that indicates
whether the product has been produced in a sustainable manner.
Should be done with leadership
from the government environmental agency... Add communications plan to
make sure the public understand the labels... With full information people
can make better decisions... This is trivial but OK…. It would be too expensive
and bureaucratic to label all consumer products, instead encourage voluntary
labeling…. Companies should create their own labels, like printing "recycled
paper" to promote themselves rather than wait for government to impose
labels... Swiss Air promotes its food as being produced by environmentally
sound agricultural practices.
1.8 Increase R&D budgets
for projects related to sustainable development, possibly with mandated
fund contributions by all countries.
Why just governments? Make
it a world philanthropic organization that also includes corporate contributions….
This foundation might be funded by government contributions calculated
proportionally to the GDP and taxes and tariffs as mentioned at action
1.5…. Some countries can't pay, so don't make it mandatory. Use environmental
offsets or incentives for corporations to provide technology to help developing
countries leapfrog polluting practices…. Better to lobby governments to
promote R&D via tax incentives, than imposing a budget.
The R&D for sustainable
development is complex and new, hence, it needs substantial financial resources.
A Global Ecological Foundation should also support the theoretical basis
of sustainable development as well as actions to address hot spots…. Lead
by international agency, possibly UNEP…. Skeptical
1.9 Substantially increase
funding for solar energy research (e.g. by a factor of 50) initiated by
private and state energy producers, governments, academic and scientific
applied research institutions.
Not necessarily by 50, but
it certainly should increase while decreasing subsidies for more environmentally
dangerous sources. Energy production and distribution should be decentralized
as much as possible... Yes, but make it substantially worthwhile for institutions
to get involved...start with a UN General Assembly resolution to involve
country contributions to an international agency, possibly UNEP... It is
only one direction, the problem is more global and should be addressed
by global intellectual and financial effort to develop new sources of energy
that can replace the traditional ones.
Getting cost-effective solar
energy recognized by the market will be the best way to attract further
1.10 Create tradable pollution
permits that regulate global emission limits for countries or industrial
The Kyoto Protocol agreed
to this in principle. Governments are working on the details now to be
addressed at the next meeting on Climate Change. The US has successful
experience in this with tradable sulfur dioxide credits. Extending this
approach internationally is difficult since there are so many different
political systems and there are serious equity issues between industrial
and developing countries on apportioning permits ...Yes, but set ceilings.
The sulfur dioxide tradable
permits are working well... The modalities of the permit mechanism must
be carefully tailored to the type of emission and industry, and there are
substantial risks in setting quotas and in the possibility of unrecognized
loopholes…. A new mechanism - the International Bank for Environmental
Settlements - was discussed to provide a framework…. Training for industrialists
1.11 Further develop ecologically
based agriculture to reduce large consumption of water, energy, and other
material inputs in agriculture.
This should be the top priority...
Put emphases on efficiency not reduction...This will require radical shifts
in approaches. The US and EC agricultural policies are anti-environment
and anti-market using heavy subsidies and fertilizers. NGOs should lobby
to get new funds for CAGAR to conduct the research necessary for the change
as they did with the Green Revolution...FAO should lead...If there is full-cost
accounting, then the market will work well. Public/private consortiums
might also create new communities that show new practices like China has
1.12 Encourage new definitions
of wealth that could change consumption patterns.
This is the key action. The
economic myth of growth at any cost has to be destroyed and a new image
of wealth created and sold by the Ad Council, advertising industry, and
media stars is essential to achieve this opportunity...Yes, but not just
wealth, we need new vision of world harmony...Even if we change the definition
of wealth, there is no guarantee people will change their beliefs and behaviors.
How to move from concept to behavior change?... Difficult as long as people
enjoy their cars...The consumption model in some developing countries (including
China), must be changed. We should not freely copy the model of developed
countries...Consumption patterns are extensively covered in Agenda 21,
though not directly in relation to definitions of wealth. This requires
a fundamental reform of the world's present monetary system.
The goals of sustainability
are at odds with a global economy that relies on interchangeable currencies,
used not only to facilitate the exchange of goods and services but also
as stores of wealth. The "monetary imperative" dictates that the best strategy
to achieve financial security is the liquidation of assets when their net
present value exceeds their discounted future value. We need a transition
to currencies whose issuance is based on the actual provision of goods
and services and a strict separation of exchange (trade) functions from
capital (savings) functions. Locally controlled currencies will isolate
local economies from the socially and environmentally destructive vagaries
of global economic swings… See Thomas H. Greco, Jr., and New Money for
Healthy Communities, <http://www.ic.org/market/money/index.html> and
Bernhard Lietaer, Community Currencies: A New Tool for the 21st Century
Ithaca, N.Y. currency system
<www.lightlink.com>, LETS (local exchange trading systems) in 20 countries,
the Schumacher Society and H.Henderson, Information, the World's New Currency,
Isn't Scarce, World Business Academy Perspectives, firstname.lastname@example.org, …. Skeptical….
New definitions will not help too much to change consumption patterns….
Changing the definition of wealth is a complex process including religion
and opinion makers, not only the "voice of greens", to touch the moral
dimension, not only the ecological aspect.
1.13 Encourage ethical
discourse to make reasonably clean air, water, and healthy soil a higher
value than economic value.
Very interesting new model
of valuing the environment... Love idea of declaring it a human right.
The UN would have to initiate it, but how to get the world to accept it?...
People don't change behavior because of ethics, but because a new behavior
works better for survival…. Governments have to educate people to understand
the environmental facts and impacts. Let the NGOs address the ethics...
Consider corruption in environmental matters as a "special crime" against
human dignity…We are now a global people and we need global values. But
people don't change because of ethics, they change because of survival.
The religious imperative
of life should drive religious leaders to provide more leadership in this.
Maybe the Vatican should host a world congress on religion and environment
to be broadcast on live television during Earth Day…. Maybe 5-7% of the
world understands these issues and actions. Such a global religious event
would broaden the world understanding beyond this small percent... Because
of the differences of interests of different groups, it might be a very
difficult discourse…. Women can play a very important role in this discourse...
World society is in transition to a new system of values and new ethical
norms, but clean air, water and soil for the human health should be the
first priority. All other priorities should serve the realization of this
1.14 Incorporate the concept
of sustainability into educational curricula at all levels; include ecology,
biodiversity, preservation of resources, and use informal education materials
by NGOs that are increasingly available on Internet.
Create a tight focus on the
message and include public social marketing as well... UNESCO and UNU should
provide some leadership... Old ideas should be changed and the new ones
communicated in the primary schools including sustainable development technology
and technological innovation…. It is not possible to incorporate the concept
of sustainability in the actual educational system. It is necessary to
create basically new educational system structure
1.15 Encourage consumers
to purchase from service industries that draw from more environmentally
friendly industrial processes.
Agree, connected with ecolabelling….
Consumer unions could share best practices, but who gets to create the
seal of approval system?... Leadership should come from Consumer groups
and government environmental agencies.... Theoretically it is a good action,
but it depends on resources and production tradition, as well as domestic
market demand. If very expensive ecologically clean goods are suggested,
than only a very restricted part of population will be able to buy it and
the corporation will collapse immediately. Will corporations take this
risk?…. Privileges of consumers must be institutionalized.
1.16 Encourage synergy
between environmental movements and human rights groups to make clean air,
water, and land a human right and increase free flow of information about
Who brings the movements
together?...NGOs should lead...Yes, but leadership to do this should come
from religious groups who can use the year 2000 as the focal point for
the synergy…. Not only human rights, but all types of organisations oriented
on communication with people, such as religious and educational organisations….
It is very important, but it is also very difficult, at least for China.
Presently, the only solution is the government action.
1.17 Support and promote
all modes of family planning by subsidizing and distributing contraceptives,
promoting programs to improve health care, diminish infant mortality, improve
literacy, and involve women in the monetary economy.
In Asia the governments lead
this action, but in Africa UN agencies, USAID, and other outside agencies
lead because the governments resist birth control... The family is the
first institution to protect the environment…. UNFPA should provide leadership...
Since much is going on now, it is a lower priority than the others listed
1.18 Develop national
laws to compensate victims of pollution and other environmental damage
Very important and should
be initiated by government environmental agencies... National laws should
be inspired by the principle of global solidarity and responsibility for
wrong local actions…. If full-cost accounting were instituted, than inventors
and corporate behaviors will change…. Punitive systems produce behavior
changes but balance with incentives. Is there a leader in the international
systems that can create a world fund to communicate to the customers and
provide incentives? If sustainability was a brand, what would it look like?
UN organizations and corporations should collaborate to show a world with
sustainability and one without it…. It is difficult or even not possible
to evaluate and count specific environmental damages (for example health
of people is complex of many factors where quality of environment is just
one of them).
1.19 Conduct UN Summit
on sustainable development to update progress and establish international
laws for sustainable development.
Necessary to get attention….
We have universal declarations and local ignorance. Instead we should have
a UN Summit to establish "global laws for sustainable development" that
should be implemented by local institutions that are globally oriented
and supported by global institutions responsible for environmental protection….
It can not be fully mandated and covered by laws. What gets us eventually
to sustainability is trade. I think that we can get there in 25 years everywhere
except Sub Sahara Africa, and even there I think that another 10 years
is all that will be required. For Africa, the time is needed to skip a
generation of government officials.
The bases for this process
are the three agreements from Rio (climate, diversity and desertification).
Now it is necessary to develop further Rio Declaration. International Law
will gradually absorb principles of sustainability…. It is very difficult
to conduct because of the great differences in the development level of
different regions…. Wishful thinking…. Some international summits are necessary
and may be useful, but the problem is of equivalency and access to information
- Internet is very important.
1.20 Create institutions
for increased global environment protection; example: The International
Court of Environmental Arbitration and Conciliation.
Evolve to a Global Court
of Environment with real but limited powers…. Environment should not be
"isolated" but should be seen in broader context. The UN Trusteeship Council
could be transformed to the Sustainable Development Council…. No need to
create new institutions if UNEP would do its work and push the World Court
in the Hague to address such cases…. Probably yes, the problem is that
the international institutions, when established, live their own life….
Would be nice but national states are not willing to take responsibility
and to be controlled by international organizations.
1.21 Develop model sustainable
communities, in different settings around the world that are designed around
reduced consumerism, sustainability, community values, traffic-free, sylvan
spaces, with fewer than 2,000 people initiated by private land developers
with support from, and in consultation with, local government, state government,
community development NGOs, other relevant environmental, urban farming,
appropriate energy NGOs.
Yes, it is important to make
the connection between sustainability and new holistic models of the society….
One of the best proposed actions, "exempla trahunt"…. OK, but lower priority...
Use them to create lists of information about what works…. It exists. Local
Agenda 21 - in England for example 40 percent of communities have it….
It is not real. These communities are based on different economic models.
There is deep need to have private property, private ownership in our mind.
1.22 Provide natural habitat
corridors and integration of habitat in agriculture to protect biodiversity
initiated by local government regulations, and support programs, farmers
and agribusiness, in consultation with environmental NGOs.
Yes, but include academia
in the process... This is too specific, better to educate farmers about
what works and create incentives to let the market solve it rather than
governments.… OK, but lower priority…. It exists (at least in Europe).
1.23 Set goals or limits
for percent of land-use for natural pristine reserves, low intensity agriculture,
and high intensity agriculture.
Good idea, should be led
by government ministries of agriculture and natural resources...We don't
know enough to do this yet. Instead, give incentives for good behavior...
Interesting idea... Create the universal principles but customize locally,
since the population to land area varies.
1.24 Pursue policies to
minimize the need for travel, such as local production and telecommuting,
initiated by local governments, planning authorities, industry associations,
telecommunications companies, community development NGOs.
It is an important point.
Government should take leadership…. Yes, but lower priority... It should
be initiated by private sector, not governments.
1.25 Consider sustainable
development goals in all other national and international public policies
Very important and UNEP should
coordinate with government environmental agencies…. It is necessary to
try and try again…. Very important, but too general
1.26 With broad public
support, encourage governments to enter into voluntary agreements with
industry, under which industry is willing to commit itself to go "beyond
regulation" in exchange for a relaxation of administrative and compliance
costs of regulations (data collecting, reporting, verification).
UNEP should encourage this….
It is more accepted in developed countries (like EU countries); the developing
ones are preparing for it…. Today unrealistic, maybe contraproductive.
Define the concept of an
environmental criminal... Nations acting irresponsibly should be penalized,
regulatory and legislative measures are part of the answer, but we should
not isolate 'offenders' totally - this only drives them to unsustainable
activity. Demonstrate the net benefit of viable alternatives. Share information
on the right ways of conducting our activities. It will not be possible
in the short term to unhook economic value from environmental values...nor
should we try...in the long term unsustainable activities are uneconomic.
Community education programs have shown that societal attitudes can change
quickly (e.g. seat belts, litter). Disseminate information on consequences.
The onus is on those in positions of power to create the opportunities
in which people can make appropriate choices…. Add or set up new World
Environment Organization and make WTO use full cost pricing and HDI indicators
instead of GDP.
Establish an Environmental
Security Council as a parallel organization to the UN Security Council
that focuses human conflict…. Establish a unified organization for coordinating
the relations among UN organizations and countries that is multi-disciplinary
and multi-sectoral. Such coordination has worked locally very well in Shan-jing-hu
region, Jiangxi Province.
Developed countries should
provide financial aid for nature conservation in poorer regions...Promote
"ecological foot printing", (see Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human
Impact on the Earth, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, 1996) as
an alternative to determining human carrying capacity... The IMF should
use the Asian financial crisis and forest fires to: 1) give greater weight
to sustainable development in their loan criteria; 2) insist on international
accounting standards for foreign direct investment; and 3) explore the
feasibility of leveraging fees on currency speculation…. The United States
should provide leadership in the global consideration of the many trade-offs
in the use of "environmental space" and development…. Planners and engineers
should be required to provide suburban developments of say 2-5,000 people….
Use the media and education to reduce political manipulation…. It may require
guerilla tactics from environmental NGOs to get effective action to achieve
this opportunity…. Create "residents compacts" as joint agreements on key
development issues. Interface Futurists and Planners…. Instead of showing
only media images of "structured permanent employment" show "unstructured
part-time employment" as an alternative to unemployment…. Define some alternative
macroeconomic indicators to GNP…. Establish face-to-face networking and
Internet banks to lend to ethical/sustainable projects as competition with
existing banks…. Control intermigration.
The "global view" should
include the right of nations to develop and share responsibility for the
state of the world…. The UN or World Bank should establish a foundation
to support the implementation of the strategies for sustainable development
in developing countries. We need an international assessment, raising,
and distribution of financial resources…. For better understanding, it
should be created a one word international term for sustainable development.
In some languages it is difficult to express it…. Sustainable development
will be enhanced if relief and development were more integrated. Usually,
UNHCR is the first organization to enter a post-conflict situation. There
is little connection between relief programs and the development programs
that follow. This could be changed if the World Bank, UNDP and others created
a joint approach with UNHCR during assessments and missions.
The public has little understanding
of sustainable development. How to reach the masses? There is a need to
create edutainment and games to teach the public the issues and responsible
Implementation of Agenda 21 is lagging far behind what was anticipated in Rio in 1992. But that does not mean that Agenda 21 is dead, that its goals are invalid, or that all its proposed steps to sustainability are wrong. The great coincidence of Millennium Project's present list of suggested actions with Agenda 21 proves the contrary. The Millennium Project should consider revisiting Agenda 21 in greater depth as the focus of a future special project...Our problem is that the current market economy system is very imperfect but we do not have a better system. We need a new philosophy or development, which would help to find an alternative economic system.
Ways of realisation of sustainable
development: from the top: create the system of laws, directions, and financing.
From the bottom: change the view of the world, change of patterns, change
of style of life
Opportunity 6 - Reducing
the rate of population growth.
Although human population
is growing in dangerous proportions, the rate of growth is falling worldwide.
Between 1954 and 1974 population grew at 1.9%, then dropped to 1.73 percent
between 1974-1994, and is expected to fall further to 1.35% between 1994
to 2014. The fertility rate fell from 4.9 in 1970 to 3.1 in 1992 and by
1998 it had fallen to 2.9. These diminishing growth rates are associated
with increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality (dropped
50% in the last 50 years), empowerment of women, improved and inexpensive
contraceptives with better distribution, and effective family planning
programs. This knowledge can be used to create more effective programs
that focus on those areas of the world where the rate remains high and
where people can least afford to provide the necessities of life for a
rapidly expanding population. The conventional view of reproduction will
change with the increasing progress toward self-determination and economic
autonomy of women (from victims to builders of alternative societies),
future development and widespread availability of a chemical that permits
the selection of a male or female child before conception, and the potential
of essentially full control of genetics and biochemical processes of all
Too soon to declare victory....
Although population growth rate is falling, we cannot relax population
control efforts because some 3 billion women will reach childbearing age
(14-49) in the next generation, while only 1.8 billion will reach menopause
over the same time span. Per capita consumption also is on the increase...The
diminished mortality in middle and old age groups in developing countries
will not only accelerate population growth, it will change the labor force/old
age ratio and increase dependency. We are not prepared for it - the systems
to take care of the elderly are inadequate. This is not only true in the
Third World, Japan is also not prepared...The elderly will continue to
work as their health improves and volunteer, and this will displace some
of the labor force... AIDS is also likely to be a bigger problem than people
yet realize, particularly in China. They announce officially that there
are 5,000 cases in the country, but it's more likely to be 2 million, centered
along the southern border... There are no easy solutions to the moral controversies
over issues like selecting the sex of a child or cloning. All these
12 suggested actions are important and feasible.
Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:
6.1 Perform R&D and
introduce new long-term male and female contraceptives.
Implement the research on
population and policy that has already been done and make current birth
control methods safer…. The contraceptives should be 100% foolproof. Even
a low probability failure affects the credibility of the system.
6.2 Increase the level
of social marketing programs that teach family planning.
Focus on men as well as women
and the community as-a-whole…. Village leaders should be involved.
6.3 Establish coordinated
global efforts and financial incentives directed toward increased contraceptive
use (e.g. providing tax advantages to smaller families).
Also focus on increasing agricultural efficiencies so that larger families are not as needed to help on the farm.... Avoid punitive measures. This was well documented in Chapter 7 from the UN conference in Cairo on population. People will simply pay the fines to have children. Instead, address social development needs.
In developing countries only
a small percentage are taxpayers. Incentives like food, cash are there
but still the program needs to be properly targeted by the family planning
officers…. Not effective for poor people, who are not taxpayers, education
is more important.
6.4 Grant greater access
by women to credit and other economic and social resources; e.g. carry
micro-entrepreneurship forward: extending small loans for self-employment
to poor people to accelerate development of small-scale business.
This is increasingly being
understood and implemented, even by the World Bank…. Accessibility has
increased considerably, now focus on awareness of the programs and marketing
6.5 Promote the self-determination
and economic autonomy of women, (but taking care to operate within the
permissible local socio-cultural and religio-moral norms and limits).
Focus on rural populations
with radio and television shows that feature women who have become successful....
Special-training programs should be developed.... This is linked to 6.4.
Government and NGOs should lead educational efforts, but government should
help provide the minimum threshold of support. More effective and more
important than pure business activities would be to strength women awareness
and confidence in being independent and taking initiative…. NGOs should
take the lead…. As women become more involved in the cash economy, birth
rates decrease in big cities of poor countries…. Addresses the symptoms
not the cause.
6.6 Actively seek religious
dialogues on the changing roles of women and birth control.
Interfaith coalitions should
lead and should not focus just on women, but on men, the family, and the
community…. Use folk arts in the rural areas…. Religious leaders, government,
and NGOs should collaborate.
6.7 Encourage widespread
access by women to education, communication, and lifestyle awareness.
Oriented not just towards
women, but to the family and access to technology that reduces the needs
for large families.... Getting girls through elementary school is the strategy
that positively affects all the other approaches. Elementary education
should be a stand-alone goal.... Include vocational training for women.
6.8 Encourage health policies
that diminish infant mortality.
Ensure the life of the first
child and abolish the myth about the male child (especially in India).
Support government primary health centers for mothers and children. NGOs
should lead public education about ethics…. Include and stress, the construction
and equipping of maternity and pediatric hospitals and clinics and training
of nurses…. Why is infant mortality still high in some countries? Government
population policy is less important than achieving a stable political system
with a growing economy.
6.9 Encourage land and
other inheritance rights for women.
Laws are there, but not implementation….
Legal literacy is needed…. It is important to stress women's economic rights....
Pressure for change can come from UN conferences like the recent ones in
Cairo and Beijing. Bilateral diplomatic pressure and foreign assistance
programs that help rewrite laws can help reinforce this.
6.10 Support the worldwide
women's movement aimed at freedom, equality of opportunity, and social
justice for women.
Hillary Clinton has stressed that human rights are women's rights and women's rights are human rights. Rights are for all people. Governments can support but not lead such movements. These movements may have to be country-by-country keeping a local focus that can be reinforced by global influences like the Internet and UN conferences.
Create a media strategy….
Women study centers should evolve programs.
6.11 Encourage and initiate
policies that protect the family with adequate benefits so that all can
Implement as a government
partnership with community churches and social groups and develop legislation
in the process.
6.12 Support equal pay
for men and women who do equal work.
Law exists, but women's groups
should provide leadership for the informal sector. Define the quality of
work/ Hours of working…. Currently included in diplomatic human rights
Currently women bear the burden of reproductive responsibility. This should be changed…. Males should equally share responsibility of population control. Change men's attitudes toward male contraceptives.
Instead of giving money to
governments, which can lead to bribery and corruption, encourage corporations
to work directly with people to solve social problems and create sustainable
development.... Include adolescence - new cohort coming into childbearing
age in description.... Define what do we mean by reproductive rights and
how to implement them.... Legalization of abortion should be kept separate
from the human rights issues.... Improve water supply and access to reduce
infant mortality, which in term further reduces birth rates.
Advocating healthy and safe sexuality involves management improvement, change of traditional thinking and promotion of medical techniques…. UN and governments should have greater responsibility for these actions.
Create ways to increase gender
sensitivity among men that lead to more women being involved in decision
Opportunity 7 - Emerging
strategies for world peace and security.
Global visibility provided
by news media and other worldwide communication sources reduces xenophobia
and undue nationalism. The end of the Cold War, and the consequent nuclear
weapons disarmament program, improvement in North-South relations, the
reconciliation movement in South Africa, development of the EU and other
regional arrangements, global satellite surveillance and media, and improving
living standards for the majority are increasing the acceptance of an emerging
peace paradigm - that is more than simply the absence of war, but is the
state of secure conditions for the evolution of humanity. The public world,
including the developing world is living longer, is more literate, eats
more calories, and has falling infant mortality rates. One billion children
are enrolled in K-12 classrooms, up from 250 million in 1960; 2.7 billion
adults are literate compared to 1 billion in 1960.
Changes in global frames
of reference and philosophies (due in part to understanding of the interaction
of population and economic growth with environmental degradation) give
rise to the possibility of a new age of enlightenment. Many norms underpinning
peace are widely accepted, such as territorial integrity; non-use of nuclear,
chemical, and biological weapons; the immunity of civilian aircraft and
ships; international obligation to help refugees; the inadmissibility of
colonial rule; the unacceptability of officially sanctioned racial discrimination;
the undeniable equality of woman; and human rights.
There are a number of emerging
trends that will permit us to build structures of peace. I agree with the
optimistic thrust of the paragraph. However, increasing global communication
and transparencies can stir up ethnic hatred as well as positive understanding.
For example, there is a huge political Islamicist threat, but the media
oversimplifies the reality of this issue. There is insufficient information
on Islam and the international media has to be more responsible. We accept
too easily the "world court of opinion". Even though there is increased
calorie consumption, there are also serious threats of a massive lack of
food resources. There has been more progress and environmental negotiators
since the first Earth day 27 years ago to the Kyoto conference on climate
change than any arms control and disarmament treaties…. Peace and security
is linked with the global convergence of information and communications
(Opportunity 9) and promising new space projects (Opportunity 14).
Once the space programs speed
up, information technology will become more pervasive and enhance the prospects
for peace…. Trust between leaders in opposing camps can be demonstrated
via the media. Increasing living standards means people have more to lose.
Increasing openness in democracy is also a force for peace…. Globalization
of business and finance is the key force for peace. Unfortunately it is
also responsible for sweatshops. Labor unions ought to globalize to address
this. The resistance in the US to making the UN a more effective peace
keeping operation dismays me. The U.S. does not want to pay its bills and
participate in peace keeping. Mass culture is inimical to leadership. With
all of our TV, movies, silly publications, there is no appetite today for
real leaders…. Compare the percentage of people living in poverty with
absolute levels to get the full picture. The middle class in India in nearly
as large as the entire population of the United States, but India has 1
billion people, hence, the poor is still the majority in India. Since the
norms underpinning peace are accepted, the price for their violation has
increased.... The economic gaps can lead to social conflicts that will
take a long time to recover.... Conflict resolution and ethnic conflicts
are not mentioned in the description.
There were 35 civil wars during 1997. The international community is losing interest in helping solve these conflicts. Countries are closing their doors to refugees. There is an international convention for refugees, but no rules for internally displaced people…. The evolution of nationalism is not receiving proper attention and study. Increasing national identity helps development, but it can evolve into a nationalism that becomes fascism. We need some independent system of scanning nationalistic movements.... Any nationalistic movement has a negative impact on the society. Even if it does not reach the goal, it creates economical and social instability and tension....
I think the problems presented
are not accurate. At present, the world peace is controlled by some big
countries and groups, which can exert great influence on world economy
and security. Military aggression is replaced by economic aggression. So
I think, apart from the political and military equality in different countries,
the equality should also exist in economic and environmental resources….
During the Cold War, a mutual restricted relationship was formed between
the two camps. So far, the Cold War seemed to be over, but new pattern
of the world is not established yet…. The heavy diet of war-based science
fiction cartoons digested by children is worrying.
Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:
7.1 Strengthen UN Secretariat
early warning and monitoring system with indicators of peace and security
that are transparent for cross-referencing by media, governments, NGOs,
and the public, to increase the likelihood of connecting early warning
with appropriate and timely action.
Integrating the media into
the system might help to speed things up.... Very good idea to make the
system transparent for media cross-referencing. Since early warning does
not always get timely decisions and governments can manipulate information,
the media (BBC, CNN, etc.) is required to put the pressure of world opinion
on political leaders to act…. U-2 flights over Iraq were the first use
of national intelligence assets by the United Nations Security Council.
The Security Council knew all the early warning indicators in Rwanda, but
there was still no action.
The early warning systems
already exist - they are NGOs. The issue is how to get the political will
to act on the early warnings. Automatically putting items on the Security
Council agenda from an early warning system won't work if the political
will is not there to make a decision. There were 3500 UN troops in Rwanda
prior to the slaughter, but their mission was not changed by the Security
Council to act. If Belgrade had been bombed three years before the Dayton
Accords, it would have stopped the war, but there was no political will
to act. Over the long-term, better education of leaders is the answer.
The UN is controlled by some
big countries, so its role is exaggerated and some decisions made in the
UN are suspect.
7.2 Identify troops to
provide a rapid response capability for peace keeping and building who
have been trained together, with compatible equipment and communications,
instead of a UN standing military.
This is much better than
having a UN standing army.... This is desperately needed. Without peacekeeping
forces, UNHCR cannot do its job. A 48-hours deployment is necessary as
the training requirement…. Improve the UN's military communications equipment.
7.3 answers the first part of 7.2…. Actions 2 and 3 are meaningless until
all member countries participate…. There are 48 countries that have agreed
to designate troops under article 43 of the UN Charter, but the Security
Council has not acted on it.
If we promoted a freestanding
UN force [editor's note: this is not the same as action 7.2], resistance
in the US to peacekeeping with its own troops might be diminished. This
UN force would be sort of like the old French Foreign Legion, all volunteers.
If there were a quick reaction force under the UN flag there would be less
chance of genocide. It would be used also to restore civil order.
7.3 Encourage NATO-style
pooling of military forces to cut down on defense expenditures and foster
greater security interdependence among nations, promoting a sense of supra-national,
if not global, identity.
This is fine and not a UN
matter. Common memberships like the Nordic States is appropriate.... NATO
seems to answer the question of how the UN mobilizes troops, improves communications,
and creates successful coalition forces.
This should foster interdependence
and trust among nations by providing standards of interoperability, doctrines
and interfaces. There may be a (commercial supplier?) role for pooling
of specialized resources (such as heavy airlift capacity).... NGOs must
push UN and other providers of troops for monitoring and collective responsibility
for the behavior of troops. Since UN and some nations do not punish their
troops for abuses, then an international system will have to be identified
to be responsible.
This may be a goal to achieve
in 50 years.
7.4 Develop better techniques
for non-violent conflict resolution, through, for example, studying successful
interventions and reaching a better understanding of the dynamics of communications
across cultural and language barriers.
Billions are spent on troops
and next to nothing on the emotional healing that is necessary to pull
out the troops…. The political department of the UN Secretariat should
do much more about this. Problem is there are few similar situations. You
should have a plan before going in, but be ready to throw it out once engaged
in the situation…. If the UN and other international arrangements are not
changed to address the current realities, then NGOs will begin to fill
the void…. NGOs have to convince governments that they are not a threat
and have governments invite them in for the social elements of peace building.
Political elements can be led by organizations like OSCE for Bosnia. Economic
building by the World Bank, IMF, and bilateral donors. But social building
addresses the heart and needs for healing.
This is better left to the
NGOs to train the trainers who are the lights at the end of the tunnel….
Consider an interdependent two-team approach: Team l composed of people
who aspire towards Ghandi-like consciousness and skilled in negotiations
and non violent conflict approaches, and Team 2 composed of military or
police enforcement personnel. Team 1 should also be related to action item
7.6…. World Bank's Peace and Development work needs to be linked more closely
to the bank's policy process.... How do you pay for the interventions?
See Carnegie study on "Preventing Deadly Conflict". Learn from the rapid
and successful health intervention examples by CDC and WHO.... Conflict
resolution approaches consider micro-level, cultural, religions and ethical
roots.... Conflicts may differ, but it is possible to develop some common
principles to find solutions.
Every nation should have
a legislative base and mechanisms to solve this kind of conflicts.... Experts
on human rights tend to see conflict resolution as short-term thinking,
arguing that until human rights are addressed, conflict will continue....
The US is wrong with its Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). High-technology
dominance is not viable. The non-violent processes are still maturing;
the UK is ahead in developing them. These processes bring together many
approaches including public awareness as an overall package of diplomacy.
Actions 4 and 5 are very
important, particularly to some poor countries.
7.5 Increase support of
software development for a compact multi-language translator; increasing
mutual understanding among citizens around the world.
An exciting technical development....
The US National Security Agency has software that can do this now. Could
they make this available to the public?.... This could be dangerous, because
mistranslated subtleties can make the situation worse…. English is becoming
a world language. The assumption that a lack of common language is the
route of conflicts may be false. Although English countries may decline,
but English will not…. Spread English as a second language of commerce
7.6 Establish an NGO network
to monitor indicators of conflict and discuss and link strategies for rapid
deployment of non-military resources.
NGO's representatives are
perceived as more peaceful than Government's officials and as having more
freedom to make judgements, but they should be in close communications
with Government institutions... NGO's representatives should have a special
training and special tools for forecasting the conflict evolution.... The
NGOs networks should be organized by regions for exploration and conflict
scanning.... I prefer this to 7.1.... Also make early warning alerts from
such networks automatically added to the Security Council's agenda....
Consult NGOs like the International Crisis Group of London that has 20
monitors of the Dayton Accord in Bosnia.
in conflict resolution, especially at the first stage, could have a negative
impact and make the problem more complicated. NGOs interference does not
result in the same negative reactions…. Link local NGOS, international
NGOs, and international organizations…. The role of the NGO is suspicious.
7.7 Insist that religious
leaders intervene in conflicts with religious tensions saying that war
is against the religion.
More have fought in
the name of religion, than have stopped wars in the name of religion....
Some religions believe war is justifiable. Put pressure behind Islamic
and Christian leaders who might move more effectively than the World Council
of Churches. Give more media attention to leaders in peace making.... Agree,
but ethnic rather than religious leaders need to publicly demonstrate trust
in each other.... Religious leaders tend to deal only with their religions.
We also need inter-religious dialogs among the top leaders…. How can you
make sure they don't take sides?…. Religious plays a role in only certain
7.8 Increase funding for
social marketing or public education programs to promote tolerance and
respect for diversity and equal rights.
Too many of these programs
aim at people who are 17 or 18 years old. That is too late. These courses
should be aimed at people in elementary and middle school…. Effort should
be worldwide, not just current areas of conflict…. Establish a global information
and communications for the UN to provide a clearinghouse for the world
to talk together. The Millennium Project could be an arm of that. The UNU
should become more active with a real Cyberspace University.
7.9 Create and implement
educational programs at all levels that teach peace-related topics such
as peaceful resolution of conflicts, compromise and consensus.
Yes, but keep a sense of
perspective, competition is good to teach, but not conflict.... The President
of the World Bank has pledged $2.5 billion to insure that every child completes
six years of education by the year 2010…. Democratic processes are requiring
indigenous leadership such as Welesa and Mandela. They interpret the needs
of the society better than those from the outside do. Communications in
this process is important but are means of communication only in the hands
of one part of the world?
7.10 Tighten laws, regulations
and inspections associated with security of nuclear, biological and chemical
When nuclear weapons were being developed, we did not know the consequences of radiation; today we do not know the consequences of biological stocks. Many products today are based on biological processes. The mass of biological stocks is increasing, which could provoke mutations. These problems will get worse.... We need a very tight regime for transferring, utilization, storing, and supervision of all these stocks. Since it is expensive, many countries will not do this properly, leading to unexpected and irremediable consequences.... A legislative base and an international convention with a minimum code of international standards should be developed and adopted…. Take punitive actions against those who do not respect the conventions.
Control, at an international
level, should be provided by a UN organization.... Presumes world law.
Tighten security with information and cyberspace.
I disagree, the laws and
regulations are already tight.
7.11 Establish international
criminal courts and tribunals with enforcement powers to punish those convicted
of atrocious collective and communal violence.
This will help develop and
focus world opinion about violence. Connect this International Criminal
Court with an early warning system focusing on potential communal violence
(see 7.12 below) and we will have an international system of analyzing
and regulating violence. Extraordinarily important to do, but making sure
all rights are taken into account makes the process more expensive than
people think.... So important that it should be included in the paragraph
description above. Russia, China and US are slow to accept this.... Agree,
but in the meantime apply sanctions now…. There is no minimum code for
common international legislative base. Only an international Criminal Court
can develop an independent international criminal code. It is possible
to form a procedure of election of judges as well as to develop common
judicial procedures.... Yes and include the UN department of political
affairs in its creation…. Develop the World Court in The Hague further….
Consider how to prevent its causing disagreement among countries.
7.12 Establish international
early warning systems focusing on potential and emerging crime threats.
Yes, but next you have to
answer who should act on the information.... It is an easier problem than
a problem of early warning about conflicts as a whole.
The UN might run countries
in Africa and other weak nations through the trusteeship council. That
mechanism could be used to salvage failing countries…. Sure, failed states
lead to organized crime…. Most conflicts today are within nations. The
UN can also address this with the international criminal courts. What are
the rights of all nations? What about the global commons. Do we just let
people kill Rwandans, the US pollute the earth, and Brazil cut down its
rainforest?…. The role of international organization should be intensified.
7.13 Address new crime
areas such as illegal waste disposal, theft of nuclear materials, human
organs and arms traffic, and sabotage of information networks.
Apply sanctions now. Utilize
the Internet and media to create a systematic alert system that lets individuals
call in early warnings. Corruption worldwide is pervasive and imploding….
If one can afford it, why shouldn't one be able to buy the best medical
7.14 Deepen the development
of the EU through a process of federalization of public policies (not only
within pillar 1 but also within pillars 2 and 3).
Most said: Sure, without
comment, but one said this was not relevant.
7.15 Enlarge NATO in parallel
with enlargement of EU.
Disagree, NATO is already
moving ahead of EU on this respect.... How is that part of the emerging
7.16 Encourage pluralism
through the promotion of multi-polarity, detente, entente, and an intercultural
Yes.... A powerful opportunity,
but it will happen anyway.
7.17 Improve public visibility
of issues through establishment of global public access TV networks.
WETV is now in 30 countries, funded by seven aid agencies and private investors. <www.wetv.com>
How to pay for it? Maybe
a new NGO?.... Add attention to the issue of the information gap by making
a new UN agency to address this gap and have Bill Gates fund it…. Couldn't
hurt, but would be difficult. Public access TV's programming is relatively
stupid. There has to be a good mechanism to promote healthy funding and
guidelines. It is the nature of broadcasting to compete with 30+ channels
- too many channels - lots of feasibility problems.
If the UN got savvy about
the media and communications (which it hasn't yet), a UN Channel on global
issues, what the UN is doing, what the UN is accomplishing, etc., would
be very effective…. The way to structure a good public access TV network
would be to structure it like PBS in the US or have a UN Channel…. Very
important to get those who are usually closed off from conventional television.
7.18 Promote peace research
and studies of conflict resolution and consensus building.
The US has one Ph.D. and
seven MA programs in conflict resolution as distinct from peace studies.
The Canadians, Dutch, and Norwegians are also leading in this. The World
Bank has a new unit in preventative diplomacy and post-conflict reconstruction....
NGOs are making progress in this but universities are not contributing
compared to their resources and potential…. Agree, but so what?
7.19 Centralization of
police work (e. g. Europe) and the development of new police techniques.
International police are
important. In the military there are many spare troops, but there are no
spare police…. Doesn't sound good. It raises my civil libertarian flag.
7.20 Introduction into
military, police and terrorist arsenals of non-lethal weapons including
aerosols that induce sleep and sticky foam.
With the right guidelines
to prevent abuse, this is a very interesting possibility because non-lethal
weapons offer the opportunity to stop a conflict without causing damage
to the participants. Many different non-lethal weapons have been developed
and produced, but inertia prevents the implementation of these weapons.
They are not included in the training programs of military and police forces.
Distribute non-lethal weapons
to the military arsenals, because the military's function is also to influence
and prevent the mass disarrays and natural disasters. These weapons are
very effective in the actions against terrorist when it is necessary to
isolate terrorists as soon as possible. They provide the opportunity to
localize a conflict in a timely manner. If these weapons would be used
against terrorists, than terrorists would know that they would not have
time for negotiations. It could influence a decrease in terrorism.... Yes,
but one still has to be careful with them; rubber bullets have had their
7.21 Accelerate reduction
in arms R&D, production, stockpiling, trade, and military personnel.
Agree, except that nations
supporting 7.2 and 7.3 will need to increase some resources and the role
of these needs to be broadened to include disaster relief.... "Generals
always prepare for the last war." Increase conversion of military weapons
to peaceful uses and make new weapons conform to current and potential
situations…. This is a top priority; there is still much to be done…. Imbalance
should be considered; the developing countries should learn how to protect
60% of arms trade is from
four members of the UN Security Council.
7.22 Increase the size
of the UN Security Council.
There is no way to work out
the political problems…. Yes, but we have to change the UN rules so that
regional organizations like the EU and Mercosur can be on the Security
Council to reflect the current realities…. Although adding regional organizations
will resolve some political issues (such as Mercosur working to resolve
the problem of the Argentina vs. Brazil seat) would require changing the
UN charter - that is based on nation-state members, add regional organizations
.... Adding more will not help…. Need much caution and much discussion.
7.23 Accelerate efforts
to convert military technology to civilian uses.
Developed countries should
undertake relatively more obligations including the reduction of military
and nuclear weapons and environmental protection and resources conservation.
Add international accountability,
impunity, and mechanisms for adjudicating disputes and massive abuse of
human rights…. Since strategies for eradication of poverty are strategies
towards security, make a new international convention to increase humanitarian
and financial assistance to undeveloped areas…. A global strategy rather
than ad-hoc measures is needed…. Implement a rapid deployment humanitarian
peacekeeping capability funded by insurance premiums paid by countries
wishing to redeploy military budgets to civilian sector.
E-2 Related Issues:
From the 15 Issues identified by the Millennium
1. World population is growing; food, water, education, housing, medical care must grow apace
2. Fresh water is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world
3. The gap in living standards between the rich and poor promises to become more extreme and divisive
4. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune micro-organisms is growing
5. Diminishing capacity to decide (as issues become more global and complex under conditions of increasing uncertainty and risk)
6. Terrorism is increasingly destructive, proliferating, and difficult to prevent
7. Adverse interactions between the growth of population & economic growth with environmental quality & natural resources
8. The status of women is changing
9. Increasing severity of religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts
10. Information technology's promise and perils
11. Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises
12. Economic growth brings both promising and threatening consequences
13. Nuclear power plants around the world are aging
14. The HIV epidemic will continue to spread
Work, unemployment, leisure,
and underemployment is changing
The following are considered to be related
to the Environmental Security:
Issue 2 - Fresh water
is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world
Availability of water is
seriously affected in most parts of the world by problems such as inadequate
waste management, excessive consumption, contamination of water aquifers,
lack of proper water-gathering and distributing technology, and excessive
farming on marginal lands. Trends in population, urbanization, tourism,
and standard of living are also having a major impact. This problem will
only continue to grow worse, since water consumption is doubling every
20 years, and 50 percent of the water supply in many main cities has leaked
away. According to UNICEF, 1.1 billion people in developing countries lack
access to safe drinking water, and 2.9 billion people have no access to
adequate sanitation facilities.
People in rural Africa, mainly
women and children, spend as many as 40 billion hours each year hauling
water. Water-related diseases contribute to nearly four million child deaths
each year, which translates to 11,000 children dying each day. Eleven African
and nine Middle Eastern nations are currently facing scarcity. Mexico,
parts of northern China (including Beijing and the surrounding agricultural
lands), parts of India (including New Delhi and thousands of rural villages),
and portions of the western US also lack sufficient clean water supplies.
To further complicate the
situation, agricultural uses far exceed other uses of water, accounting
for as high as 70% of total water usage in some regions. With the demand
for food increasing, pressure to use water for agriculture will certainly
increase as well. In some regions, previously fertile agricultural land
is becoming brackish and useless due to long-term geological trends.
Climate change is also a
factor. The possibility, speed, and consequences of global warming are
uncertain, but at the very least, changes in rainfall patterns will undermine
the effectiveness of existing water control, storage, and distribution
facilities, and will widen the areas affected by scarcity. On the other
hand, some areas, such as northeast China, have actually benefited from
the increased average temperatures by increased crop production.
While methods do exist to
purify salt water, these methods are expensive and often impractical. As
urbanization, population, and economic growth continue, competition between
urban and agricultural uses of water will grow, and this competition can
become a source of political instability and conflict. This issue also
affect the development of nations, since the problems brought on by lack
of water reduce the amount of time available for learning and work, and
also negatively affect water-dependent industrial production.
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS ON ISSUE
Remote sensing satellites
can play a significant role in locating and characterizing needed resources,
including water resources.... The Qur'an teaches to use the least amount
of water that is necessary and to take all possible measures to prevent
waste…. In many countries, including China, water is even more scarce than
Actions to Address Issue
2, with a Range of Views on These Actions
2.1. Governments should
establish water conservation policies and incentives to improve the efficiency
of water use.
This should include legislative
and statutory prices, incentives, and public awareness campaigns.... Once
subsidized water, especially for agriculture, is eliminated, the problem
will disappear.... This should be done gradually.... Agriculture offers
many opportunities for water conservation.... Water for irrigation should
be transported to the plot, not run through the entire field.... Both governments
and business should implement strict water recycling policies for industry....
Governments should organize scientists or work cooperatively to improve
measures to reduce water consumption and improve efficiency of use (such
as drip and spray irrigation rather than channel irrigation), as well as
create new water resources.... The UNDP, World Bank, UN Children's Fund
(UNICEF), and other international organizations are implementing water
and sanitation programs and need more financial support.... The Millennium
Project might organize an international meeting on water consumption, establish
an information network of experts, and promote visions and programs by
regions.... UN University has just established the International Network
on Water, Environment, and Health (UNU/INWEH).
2.2. Corporations with
support from government should begin immediate research and development
programs to reduce the means for producing inexpensive water from salt
This is necessary and unavoidable
in some countries.... Start with brackish water, which has less salt than
sea water. It can be used especially for irrigation. Unfortunately, the
cost/benefit ratio of salt water conversion to drinking water is not attractive
yet.... Also consider the economics of water transportation.... Add "artificial
precipitation" or "rain making." The meteorological departments in China
have successfully performed this, resulting in significant social and economic
benefits. More attention should be paid to meteorological engineering....
Users' associations and water distribution companies should also provide
leadership.... This is not useful for all countries.
2.3. The private sector,
with some support from governments, should encourage further development
of plant strains and agricultural practices that 1) use salt or brackish
water for irrigation and/or 2) that are drought-hearty.
Brackish water represents
50% of some countries' water resources.... UNDP, UNEP, IFAD, and others
are currently negotiating responsibilities for implementing development
plans arising from the Earth Summit run by the UN Conferences on Environment
and Development (UNCED), especially the dry lands and desertification sections....
UNESCO did a study that was encouraging and could be generalized.... Also
develop plants and crops that can live with less water or survive some
drought conditions.... Need incentives to get this action done.
2.4. Governments, with
some leadership from the private sector, should develop water trading and
marketing practices that allow users and managers to better allocate scarce
supplies and fund conservation.
This will require reliable
measurements and advanced monitoring techniques.... Water pipelines would
benefit both supplier and consumer regions.... South African Development
and Cooperation (SADAC) countries will be the first to work with UNDP and
others on the legal transborder solutions to these issues.... It is a very
complex issue with many political, social, and human implications. Like
air and ozone, it poses complex problems of sovereignty, in addition to
economic, legal, political, ethical, and even philosophical problems. Water
is not the property of anybody.
2.5. Governments, with
some leadership from international organizations, should secure treaties
and cooperative agreements on water rights among nations that share water
resources before shortages occur.
This should be implemented among countries, not as a world order.... SADAC will be the region to participate in the new UNDP "Water Sharing" program to assess transborder water issues and potentials for agreements. If successful, this will be replicated to other areas with transborder water problems.… Special attention has to be given to the use of fossil water that exists under two or more countries, when one country uses it to the degree that it denies neighboring countries' future use. For
example, Israel's depletion
of fossil water, at the expense of its Arab neighbors, is a particularly
difficult case.... Owing to political realities, agreements also need to
be made among different areas or regions within the same country.
2.6. UN organizations
should establish a world water agency to develop and expedite new water
technology and water extraction and collection projects.
The World Water Consortium
based in France and the Global Water Partners in Stockholm already exist
and sometimes they have problems coordinating initiatives, but they are
able to conduct this mission. There is no need for another agency.... Maybe
after the current UN reform and re-organization is complete, this action
could be implemented.... The Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) of the
UN can help, but its structure needs to be changed.... This is the most
important action and would make other actions more successful.... The establishment
of this agency should be put forward at the General Assembly of UN conferences
related to this issue. It should include coordination with national legislative
bases, research and development, expediting use of new technologies, and
popularizing this problem in the media.
ADDITIONAL ACTIONS TO ADDRESS
Research water-saving irrigation
technology, timing, and quotas.... Invest in reforestation.... Reduce flow
of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides.... Learn from the success
of the Tennessee Valley Authority on water supply.... Improve management
of water basins.... Agriculture should combine drip irrigation with the
use of plastic film (closed environment agriculture), where possible, to
reduce evaporation and increase efficiency.... Use sea ice in temperate
zones, such as was done successfully in The Netherlands…. We need to go
back to the recommendations of the water meeting in Dublin.... Reduce water
pollution from industry and agriculture.
Issue 4 - The threat of
new and re-emerging diseases and immune microorganisms is growing
Great progress has been made
in eliminating many infectious diseases, but this progress has lulled many
parts of the world into a false sense of security, thus enabling diseases
that were once thought vanquished to recur with alarming speed. Drug-resistant
tuberculosis in the United States is making a deadly comeback. Diseases
such as diptheria, dengue fever, meningococca, meningitis, yellow fever,
and cholera have reappeared as public health threats in many countries
after years of decline. Recent outbreaks of bubonic plague in India and
Ebola in parts of Africa have also brought attention to this problem.
Previously unknown infectious
diseases are emerging at an unprecedented rate. In the last 20 years, more
than 30 new and highly infectious diseases have been identified, including
Ebola, HIV/AIDS, and hepatitis C. For many of these diseases there is no
treatment, cure, or vaccine. Furthermore, over the last 20 years many known
strains of disease have evolved resistance to antibiotics, due to the widespread
use and misuse of those drugs. Fewer new antibiotics are being developed
and produced, partly because of high development and licensing costs.
There are many reasons for
the appearance of new disease, including the rapid increase in international
air travel, and the growth of huge metropolises with high population densities
and inadequate water supply and sanitation. The risk of food-borne diseases
has been heightened by the globalization of trade, as well as recent changes
in the production, handling, and processing of food. Environmental factors
can also expose humans to previously unknown diseases. For example, activities
such as deforestation and migration into remote habitats carry high risks
of exposure to disease.
Chuck Woolery of the National
Council for International Health, testifying before the US Congress that
"Infectious diseases spreading in US hospitals kill more people each year
than all Americans killed in Vietnam…The heaviest concentration of pathogens
is found in the developing world…The progress of pathogens to adapt to
our arsenal of medicines promises to be the fight of our species…It is
a trend that holds the capacity to bring life as we know it to a grinding
halt…A handful of microbes can be stopped at the border, but the vast majority
ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS
This issue is a matter of
national security.... Travel is easy and diseases respect no borders....
Doctors prescribe too many antibiotics and people don't take all of their
prescriptions; both are responsible for the resistance to antibiotics that
we're seeing. TB was under control for a long time. It's re-emerging now
because poor people are undernourished, live in poor shelters, and live
in close proximity.... TB is the single largest killer of AIDS patients....
TB is a major problem, because sometimes it gains resistance to multiple
drugs and treatments. This phenomenon occurs in 1.4 percent of new cases,
especially in Southeast Asia and the former USSR, and makes the disease
practically invincible…. The US let its guard down; surveillance of public
heath is not as good as it used to be when the US was monitoring for polio
and smallpox.... It is hard to prepare for new pathogens, as a great deal
is apt to change…. Life is a race between species and their predators,
which will never stop. We will never cure all diseases. In any case, the
pharmaceutical industry won't go away. But the doom and gloom merchants
are wrong, but even if the sort of disaster they describe does strike,
there is nothing we could do about it, so there is no point in planning
for it!…. The World Health Assembly may ratify a draft of the International
Health Regulations that would help create a 'global alert system' diseases.
Actions to Address Issue
4, with a Range of Views on These Actions
4.1. The world health
organization (who), with some assistance from government agencies (such
as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC]) should strengthen
and expand the global network of collaborating laboratories to create an
effective global surveillance system for emerging viruses and infections.
In addition to using the
latest in satellites and information technology, WHO should also act as
a cheerleader for and coordinator of other UN organizations and government
efforts. It is too dangerous to repeat the mistakes of the past.... We
should ask what it took to get mobilized to wipe out smallpox.... How can
we expect UN activity when the US doesn't pay its bill? The US and other
civilized countries have to recognize the threat…. WHO is establishing
a global network of laboratories that generate standardized, quantitative
data on antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Data are used locally for
containment of resistance and internationally to develop better drug policies
and advocacy for new antibiotic treatment.
4.2. WHO with strong government
support, should increase funding and technical assistance for the global
program on vaccines to ensure maximum coverage is obtained with existing
antigens and that research and development is intensified for other possible
vaccines and immunizations (such as for malaria).
The reason pharmaceutical
companies are not putting more effort into antibiotics and vaccines is
simply concern over liability. Liability is the big impediment…. Bacteria
are developing resistances to many vaccines and treatments due to over-use
and misuse of antibiotics…. This could have broad implications. If bacteria
can evolve permanent resistance to streptomycin or other antibiotics, then
reducing antibiotic use in agriculture and medicine may be less effective
as a means of combating the rise of bacteria resistance than most scientists
4.3. Governments, with
support by UN organizations, should increase funding for safe water supply
A more detailed discussion
appears above in Issue 2.2.... Public health experts have to understand
what's safe and not seek water supplies that are totally free of pollutants.
It's a balance between what causes disease and cost. To eliminate all possible
pollutants is very costly…. This is very important, because according to
the World Health Report, almost half the global population suffers from
diseases related to lack of, or contaminated water. Diarrhea also kills
millions of children.
4.4 WHO, with active participation
by governments, should create a rapid international medical deployment
capacity to respond to outbreaks of infectious disease with epidemic potential.
4.5. Governments, with
support from international organizations, should increase the funding and
capacity of such agencies as the CDC, United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), who, and other international technical agencies, to
better collaborate with countries in strengthening national disease surveillance
and control systems.
4.6. WHO, with national
leadership and management by governments, should focus international attention
and funding on those diseases that have been targeted by the world health
assembly for eradication or elimination as public health problems (polio,
measles, guinea worm, and leprosy).
4.7. Corporations, with
some leadership by governments, should initiate intensified research into
second-generation antibiotics. Issues of liability that are preventing
corporate initiatives have to be addressed.
4.8. Governments, NGOs,
and international organizations should cooperate in training, credit, and
technical assistance for small and microeconomic development to improve
economic development in poorer countries and thus improve the standard
ADDITIONAL ACTIONS FOR ISSUE
Promote telemedicine initiatives
to bring the best medical knowledge to all areas of the world and significantly
improve the responsiveness of the medical system to critical areas....
Understand more about the relationship between disease and ecology (both
external environment and internal ecology of genes) and between disease
and genetics (including the mechanism for rapid adaptation to new strengths
and mutation)…. Use a variety of media to establish religious and cultural
values to reinforce good health practices to reduce the impact of this
issue.... Increase monitoring, and research etiologies and new drugs….
Of more than 11 million deaths among children under 5 in the developing
world, about 9 million were attributed to infectious diseases, 25 percent
of them preventable through vaccination…. At least 30 new diseases have
been scientifically recognized around the world in the last 20 years.
Issue 6 - Terrorism is
increasingly destructive, widespread, and difficult to prevent.
According to the US State
Department, "During 1997 there were 304 acts of international terrorism,
eight more than occurred during 1996 but one of the lowest annual totals
recorded since 1971. In 1997, 221 persons died and 693 were wounded in
international terrorist attacks, as compared to 314 dead and 2912 wounded
in 1996." Despite 1997's relatively low numbers, it is clear that terrorist
activity throughout the globe remains strong, and that terrorists have
even more effective means of carrying out their agendas. Globalization
has increased the effectiveness of terrorist organizations, by providing
greater opportunities for cooperation with international crime networks.
Biological and chemical weapons
are relatively easy to manufacture, only requiring commonly available raw
materials and conventional technology. One of the most widely publicized
recent terrorist threats was the attack carried out by the Aum Shinrikyo
cult, which left several bags containing sarin gas in a Tokyo metropolitan
subway. More than 5000 people were injured. Terrorists could also gain
access to deadly germs and infectious diseases. These weapons have particular
appeal to terrorists who wish to wipe out large populations, because of
their potential to affect great numbers of people. Biological agents can
not only be used as weapons of mass destruction, but also as highly specific
killers. The potential exists for the development of guided bioweapons
that could use genetic information to target people with specific genetic
Potential for nuclear-armed
terrorists has increased as an issue with recent nuclear tests in India
and Pakistan. Chechen groups may have been involved in the theft of 6 kg
of enriched uranium, (which was eventually recovered in Istanbul); the
Czech government intercepted a shipment of 3.2 kg of enriched uranium from
a nuclear smuggling ring; and the German government found 0.21 kg of plutonium
in Munich on a Lufthansa plane from Moscow. All of these incidents occurred
in the last three years. German authorities also reported 276 nuclear smuggling
incidents in 1994.
The possibility of information
warfare and acts of cyber-terrorism is increasingly worrisome. Ten years
ago a college student froze part of the US military's Advanced Research
Project Agencies Network. The incident demonstrates the ominous vulnerability
of key information systems. More recently, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam flooded Sri Lankan embassies around the world with email. This incident
is being called the first cyberterrorist attack by a known terrorist organization.
In an increasingly computer-linked society, the range of potential cyber-terrorist
targets is incredibly wide, requiring effective and imaginative counter
measures, such as police specifically trained for combating cyber-terrorism.
ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS
Terrorism has been a permanent
element in history, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, terrorism has
become the issue of major concern for humankind.... Terrorism is legitimate
when all else fails. How do we distinguish justified from unjustified terrorism?....
We need a mechanism to understand and acknowledge previous wrongs…. Terrorism
is a virus that is growing. No global system exists to stop it. Anti-terrorism
centers exist, but they are underfunded.
Actions to Address Issue
6, with a Range of Views on These Actions
6.1. Governments, with
advice from international organizations, should tighten laws, regulations,
and inspections associated with security of nuclear, biological, and chemical
The Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are the principal vehicles
upon which to build.... It will require sanctions against countries and
groups that do not cooperate and special networks of cooperation among
those countries that are targets of terrorism. Different ideological and
political interests would have to be overcome for cooperation among national
intelligence agencies.... The ultimate sanction, if a nation were to develop
nuclear weapons illegally, would be to bomb their facilities.... Despite
the NPT's call for disarmament, many policy-makers within the nuclear powers
consider these weapons as a guarantee for peace and stability.... This
action should be based on an international strategy including 1) databases
of people connected with these materials; 2) standards for management of
these materials and common international training of personnel so that
each knows what his/her counterparts will be doing in a critical situation;
3) rules of storage, control, and displacement of nuclear, chemical, and
biological stocks; and 4) ratification of these three elements by member
countries of the UN.... We have to put teeth behind the UN. It is the only
worldwide organization that can act here. The nations that owe money to
the UN should pay their debt.... Why would terrorists want to use weapons
of mass destruction? If terrorists want to gain support or sympathy for
their agenda, they shouldn't take a path that would result in killing millions
of people. Imagine world reaction if terrorists had managed to kill 5000
people in the poison-gas attack in Japan? In such a case, the law enforcement
apparatus in Japan would have been joined by law enforcement everywhere.
Therefore, rational terrorists would not be likely candidates to use weapons
of mass destruction. But we have irrational terrorists. It has been possible
for many years for small groups to build chemical and biological weapons.
Fortunately, terrorist attacks using such weapons have not happened. However,
the past is not necessarily a predictor of the future.... The first three
actions to address this issue deals with consequences, not the fundamental
causes of terrorism.
6.2. Governments, in cooperation
with international organizations, should destroy existing stockpiles of
Gorbachev agreed to this,
but it was not done. The development of biological weapons was stopped,
but this could start at any moment again.... Create common international
rules of storage and control of biological weapons and have them ratified
by UN members. All countries should inform a special organization of the
UN about any operations with these weapons. The UN should create mechanisms
to influence countries that do not follow the rules. Biological weapons
are more frightening than nuclear or chemical weapons: they are exceedingly
easy to manufacture, and there is no good reliable way to detect their
production.... Destroying stockpiles of biological weapons sounds good,
but how do we detect the stockpiles? No proposals are satisfactory. Verification
is a good idea. Inspectors can validate plants that have been discovered
and closed, but good faith is not enough. Chemical plants are more obvious
than biological plants. Monitoring raw material inputs won't work. There
is no reliable way to contain this issue.
6.3. Governments should
at least double the amount of funding devoted to protection against terrorist
acts, such as airport security.
More effective would be old-fashioned
spying - infiltrate organizations at the highest level. Get the information
to prevent this threat.... In addition to airports, include subways, railway
stations, and seaports.... If we are concerned about big issues, smuggling
of nuclear material or biological materials raises concern about destroying
many more people than just a plane-load. The choice for delivery of a terrorist
nuclear weapon would be a truck, van, or a cargo container. Biological
weapons, on the other hand, would be essentially undetectable.... Funding
is increasing for this now…. Countries with more resources must cooperate
with those with fewer resources.
6.4. Governments, with
some leadership by the UN Security Council, should expand coordination
and cooperation among nations (especially among those that might not normally
cooperate) regarding information, early warning, apprehension, and punishment
This would be the most effective
action to address the issue.... How should we react to countries that give
asylum to terrorists, under the argument of respect for human rights? Asylum
supports terrorist activities. The countries that tend to protect terrorists
are not able to control terrorists' activities against other countries....
This policy implies that all terrorism is wrong. Was terrorism against
apartheid in South Africa wrong?
6.5. Governments should
at least double the amount of funding devoted to detection, capture, and
punishment of terrorists, perhaps shifting funds from conventional military
This should be done anyway....
This depends on the country.... Try the "rogue leaders" who harbor terrorists
in an international criminal court and televise the proceedings.
6.6. Governments should
develop protection strategies for biological attack.
Reactions to this are the
same as those listed under the action 2.6.1.
6.7. NGOs, with support
from governments, should create social marketing or public education programs
that promote respect and tolerance for ethnic and other forms of diversity.
This is very important, but
be alert against the so-called "intolerance of the tolerant." Under the
appearance of tolerance, they first permit and later promote pornography,
drug consumption, and other social illnesses. Freedom, yes - but not licentiousness.
6.8. Governments should
plan to build resilience and redundancies into sociotechnical systems to
avoid possible catastrophic disruptions (including electronic infrastructures
This should be a top priority
and should be done anyway.
6.9. NGOs and UN organizations
should establish an open forum for discussion of issues that enflame terrorists.
This is the most important
action and needs to be developed further. Historic injustices of the parties
should be fully shared in public and discussed to reach acknowledgment
and public apologies. Without this, the hate continues from one generation
to the next.... The UN Security Council in April 1996 debated a proposal
by over 30 international NGOs for an online network of such conflict-resolution
groups worldwide: Anticipatory Risk-Mitigation Peace-Building Contingents
(ARM-PC). The UN General Assembly in May 1996 requested that the Security
Council set up a similar system for a "humanitarian rapid response" force.
Norway announced US$1 million of funding support for this in October 1996.
ADDITIONAL ACTIONS FOR ISSUE
Eliminate all nuclear weapons.
Increasing numbers of leaders think it is desirable and possible for the
complete elimination of nuclear weapons (as recommended by the Canberra
Commission) in the long run, if the will is there. If the US, United Kingdom,
France, and Russia would agree, then China would agree. Sufficient conventional
force would remain to address rogue states.... How to get the rightness
of an oppressed people's position through to the dominant power? How to
categorize acts of terrorism? If the international community will not boycott
or intervene in situations of clear injustice, then violence seems to be
the only remaining strategy.... The criminal court needs international
agreement and authority to act.... Consider media and education programs
to demonstrate alternatives to violence to solve problems. The international
community must come to an agreement about how to address "state terrorism."….
UN organizations should become increasingly involved in this issue by setting
international standards of behavior, and establishing the legislative base
to manage terrorism.... It would be helpful if the Millennium Project initiated
a conference for the discussion of this problem to bring together the strategies
and then submit them to all countries and the UN to start a dialogue.
Issue 7 - There are adverse
interactions between the growth of population and economies with environmental
quality and natural resources
The current world population
is currently about 5.9 billion, and according to UN projections, may reach
10 billion by 2050. Although the population growth rate is slowing, the
numbers of people being added to the world every year are higher than ever
before. According to the UNFPA, about 45 percent of mankind now lives in
cities, and as urban population increases, urban environmental problems
will intensify as well.
In addition, faster economic
growth is expected in most countries, which will lead to increased consumption
of natural resources and energy. Most of the world's fisheries are already
in danger of depletion. Many countries have demonstrated that energy consumption
need not grow in direct proportion to economic growth, and UNCED has concluded
that economic growth is necessary for reversing environmental damage and
finding resource substitution. Nonetheless, huge growth is expected as
the economies and populations of developing countries expand, and world
energy demand is expected to increase 50 percent by 2020. Increased energy
consumption could also lead to greater environmental damage. For example,
burning of indigenous coal by China and India could add appreciably to
the world's pollution load. However, the developed countries consume far
more raw materials and energy than the poorer countries are expected to
do throughout the next century.
Global warming is an especially
serious problem. The 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded
that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on
global climate." Global temperature may rise by 1-3.5 degrees centrigrade
(35-39 degrees Fahrenheit), and sea level by 15-95 centimeters, over the
course of the next century. Some progress is being made to combat the problem
of global warming; ministers from 160 countries agreed to a legally binding
protocol at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change at Kyoto. This
protocol demands that industrialized countries cut greenhouse gas emissions
by 5.2 percent from 1990 levels.
ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS
With good policy, growth
and improved environmental conditions can coexist. For example, China's
forest coverage has increased 1% between 1985 and 1995 due to a large-scale
reforestation campaign during this period.... Too many government policymakers
are unqualified and make disastrous decisions based on myths that contribute
to ecologically dangerous areas. One myth was that the biosphere can only
handle 1 billion people - but this depends on what the people do. Another
was that natural resources limit evolution - but novel technologies have
beaten environmental limits and new ones will be more efficient, place
less demand on natural resources, and prevent pollution. Linear Industrial
Age thinking also leads to these mistakes.... We are making some progress
in pollution control through such agreements as the Montreal Protocol and
the Vienna Pact, but much work remains to be done.... The private sector
in the poorer countries is too small to provide much leadership.... The
population rates are falling rapidly in most of the developing countries,
while they have declined to the zero level in most of the developed regions....
As people's wealth rises, pollution increases, but as wealth increases,
further pollution per capita drops because people can pay for solutions.
Waste is increasing rapidly, but this problem is solvable ultimately....
Carbon dioxide looks like the longest term problem.... There is almost
infinite substitutability. So the price mechanism will drive markers to
the alternatives.... This "environmental Kuznet's curve" hypothesis is
disputed.... The problem now is renewable resources, such as fish (in the
global commons), food, etc.... Although pollution would probably increase
with rapid economic growth in Russia, the reverse is not true. Pollution
continued even when our economy shrunk, owing to lack of control of industry
and old technology. The environment is not a priority at this time; the
environmental share of the Russian federal budget this year is 0.5%. The
US spends five times more on defense than environment; Russia spends 50
times more.... Per capita income will increase for most people in the world;
with such increases come greater consumption of natural resources and energy.
Actions to Address Issue
7, with a Range of Views on These Actions
7.1. Governments should
initiate higher tariffs or taxes on polluting products or technologies,
with the revenues collected to be used to subsidize the acquisition of
environmentally safe technologies. By the same token, reduce import tariffs
on environmentally sound technologies, goods, and equipment.
This would require changes
in WTO rules to implement.... Tariffs on trade should only be used on those
environmental problems that are truly global. Nations should set taxes
commensurate with their local situation…. Tariffs should reflect environmental
costs. Pricing should include environmental costs, but how to know these
costs? We need a system to assess natural resources and pollution's effects
on the environment, e.g., "net energy" and ecological footprint analysis,
as well as a system for collection and distribution of money raised from
this mechanism.... In Russia there are no tariffs on imported "nature-oriented"
technologies. To tax polluting products will require better-educated government
decision-makers and a new ecological culture as a whole.... It's a good
idea, but impossible to implement properly. There is no unified and realistic
way to identify how much pollution each product creates. It is hard to
collect environmental pollution taxes now. Pollution taxes set up the irresponsible
idea that I have the right to pollute because I paid for it.... Countries
are in the process of considering this.... As we learn more, the likelihood
of this action's implementation increases.... Use preferential policies
rather than punitive approaches and build the capacity of the public to
make better environmental decisions.... Also consider incentives to introduce
less-polluting technologies and production processes.... The income produced
from these taxes and tariffs might not go to subsidize the acquisition
of environmentally safer technologies because of corruption and inability
to identify the technologies. However, I agree that we should take leadership
on this issue and begin working on legislation about "ecological security."
7.2. Governments, with
some leadership from the private sector and in cooperation with scientific
research, should include environmental costs in the pricing of natural
resources and products.
Economic and environmental
policy should be created together as a sustainable economic policy. This
is very good, but very difficult to implement properly. How do you measure
the costs?.... Include the cost in destruction of resources.... Corporations
will fight it.... It is partly realized in some parts of our country, and
we are taking leadership to continue implementation. It is included in
the Annual State Report (Russia) and in the president's decree about the
model of sustainable development. But most of the implementation of this
action is only on paper.... Governments don't control the prices; the global
market and cartels control the prices of natural resources.... Adjust the
production systems instead.... This action will kill our industry; it is
an absurdity. There is no close relation between pollution and profit.
7.3. UN organizations,
with some leadership by governments, should establish an international
technology bank, funded by country pledges, that could acquire the rights
to innovate "green" technologies so as to make them more easily available
to environmentally less advantaged countries.
The bank should focus first
on the most ecologically dangerous regions.... Such a bank should have
direct links to corporations.... The first step has been taken with the
Global Ecology Fund and with the Global Environmental Facility.... The
African Development Bank could open a section to address this issue....
This will work when the problems are considered urgent enough.... Most
Chinese people instinctively think that the developed countries' objective
in these kinds of issues is to suppress the economic success of poorer
countries. For this reason, UN organizations are the best mechanisms to
implement this.... Such a bank makes sense, but not under the UN.... Governments
should stay away from control to avoid corruption.... The World Bank, UNDP,
etc., have taken some actions in this direction, although it is not very
realistic to prevent pollution. Instead, perfect relevant regulations and
laws for family planning, natural resources utilization, waste recycling,
and environmental protection.
7.4. Governments and international
organizations should continue to support and promote all modes of family
planning by subsidizing and distributing contraceptives and by promoting
programs to improve health care, to diminish infant mortality, to improve
literacy, and to involve women in the monetary economy.
The development of education
and the improvement of quality of life are the most effective policies
that leads to other solutions. Focusing on these issues, rather than the
speed of population reduction, is more essential.... This action is a top
priority of the Ghana Vision 2020 framework for policy, but there is conflict
over giving condoms to children; we don't want to encourage the sexual
activity of youth, yet TV programming promotes sexual activity. ... There
is no substitute for economic growth.... Religious opposition and political
rivalry prevent this from being more effective.
7.5. Governments, with
some assistance from international organizations, should establish a system
of national accounts that includes the economic impacts of the depletion
of natural resources.
This will work, but the problems
are not yet considered urgent enough.... Although not organized like this
excellent action suggests, some countries have begun policy changes in
this direction, such as banning export of some tree species.... There are
great difficulties in establishing neutral measures for this.... Instead,
consider the establishment of a sustainable development index that takes
nature, society, and the economy into consideration.
7.6. Governments, with
some leadership from the private sector, should encourage placement labels
on all consumer products and open information that indicates whether they
have been produced in a sustainable manner.
Labeling is good, but difficult
for developing countries' trade. Although it seems very reasonable, lower-income
countries do not know how to judge this and would need external assistance.
The definition and measurements necessary to carry this out are not now
possible.... It won't work; it's too easy to exploit labeling for protection
of domestic products and discrimination against competing products....
WTO rules need changing to implement.
7.7. Governments, in cooperation
with international organizations, should encourage nations, perhaps through
treaties, to abolish environmentally inefficient subsidies.
This will work once an international
consensus is reached on the definitions of environmentally inefficient
subsidies.... It is essential to eliminate subsidies.... Our government
would like to cooperate on this.... This action is difficult to implement,
but that is the current direction.... Methodologies for assessing environmental
efficiency include "net energy" and "ecological footprint analysis."….
Some believe that changing laws and attitudes are more important than finding
new technologies or scientific breakthroughs.
7.8. Governments, in cooperation
with UN organizations, should create tradable pollution permits that fix
global emission limits for countries or industrial sectors.
This is very reasonable and
will work once target emissions are established. The automobile industry
established Partners for a New Generation of Vehicles as a private industry
research consortium. Could this action divert funds from consortia like
this?…. This won't work until we know what criteria and standards are to
be used for these permits and who determines what is polluting and what
are the acceptable or tolerable limits.... Make sure this does not favor
obsolete plants and technologies that retard innovation.
7.9.* Governments should
emphasize programs that promote population dispersion and slow urbanization;
this includes locating new production plants in the countryside.
Make small farming more profitable,
make new laws to get more land to people, change tribal control of land,
expand small-scale manufacturing, electricity, roads, cellular or direct
satellite telephony in the rural area. The Grameen Bank in Bangladesh is
now selling cellular radios to microenterprises in rural areas to improve
their business growth.... Consider actions that make it more expensive
to be congested.... Urbanization is great for ecology, reduces fertility
rates, and provides more efficient use of energy and transportation. You
have to ask why people flee to the city.... It's better to concentrate
on factories favorable for recycling and treatment.... Make combinations
of factories that can use the waste of one as the resource for another....
Urbanization and industrialization have a positive role in helping rural
people to get rid of poverty. Instead, encourage environmentally sound
urbanization through ecologically oriented management principals.... Aggregation
of population is easier to manage.... Re-ruralization is not likely to
work because it will lead to considerable hardships, arbitrary interventions,
high costs, and corruption.
ADDITIONAL ACTIONS FOR ISSUE
Add more incentives in this list of actions to attract people to create environmentally sustainable growth. Add positive collaboration among government industry and the public as a motivation toward improving behavior and the better use of technology…. The Millennium Project could help by advancing a new vision of the complex interactions among population, economic growth, environment, and resources. This helps break away from dogmas and myths. A new ecological paradigm should be developed as well as a new model of the knowledge-based society.... Improve environmental and ecological consciousness.... It is essential to build trust among nations so that policies are not seen as one taking advantage of the other. This will require very powerful educational efforts.... From an ecological engineering view, it is better to deal with wastes and pollutants in a limited region with a phased approach in the management of wastes.... Owing to the Cultural Revolution, China did not participate in the international debate about growth in the 1970s. As a result, it is just now learning the lessons it missed.... The list only has economic control measures…. Actions 2.7.1 to 2.7.3 are merely technical approaches that are not wrong, but are not the keys to the solution. A change in consciousness is the key.... We need environmental law to be transnational law, not international law, to accommodate so many different legal systems.
Security Study - Table of Content