You may remember that
the Millennium Project conducted an assessment of emerging definitions,
threats, and issues of environmental security about three years ago. The
results can be found at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/env-sec1.html
and available in the forth coming 2001 State of the Future.
Enclosed is the first round of a three-round Delphi questionnaire. Your views are requested about the likelihood and importance of emerging environmental issues and when they might affect military policy or procedures due to security concerns, or statutory, regulatory, or treaty requirements. No attributions will be made.
Round two will be conducted
during a workshop in early August 2001 in the Washington area.If
you are interesting in attending, please send me know.The
results of the enclosed Round 1 will be the basis for the workshop.The
results of the workshop will be further developed in a Round 3 questionnaire.All
those who respond to the enclosed questionnaire will receive a copy of
the results in the 2002 State of the Future and be listed as participants.
Please contact us with
any questions and return your responses to arrive at the Millennium
Project by 1 August 2001. We look forward to including your views.
Sincerely yours,
Jerome C. Glenn, Director,
Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior
Fellow, Millennium Project
Round 1 - Instructions
This questionnaire can be filled out online at http://mpcollab.org
A series of possible emerging environmental issues and events are listed in the questionnaire. You are asked to rate those items about which you have knowledge or special interest. You do not have to rate all of the items. You are asked to provide your judgments about the items in thee ways:
1. How likely is it that the event or emerging issue will actually occur and affect military requirements?
2. If the emerging environmental issue or event were to make a change in military requirements in your country, how important would that be? For the purpose of this questionnaire, importance means significance of impact on military bases, operations, and/or systems.
3. Assume that the issue or event occurs. If it does affect military requirements (be it statutory, regulatory, or by treaty), by what year might the requirement be actually adopted in your country? If you believe it will never have an impact, then enter “NEVER” in the year column of the questionnaire.
Please use the following scale to rate importance and likelihood:
Likelihood:
Importance:
At the end
of the questionnaire, please include other emerging environmental issues
or events that you think are very likely and would have significant impact
on the military between 2010 and 2025.
If
you would like to comment on any of the given items, please do so at the
end and include the item’s number.
Please
respond by 1 August 2001 and include your name, institutional affiliation
and title, along with your post mail (where results should be mailed) and
e-mail addresses and fax number. All responses are confidential, and no
attributions will be made.
Send
your response by e?mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org
and Tedjgordon@worldnet.att.com or fax to +1?202?686?5179 or airmail to:
The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University,
4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA.
Emerging Issue or Event |
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1.Environmental
concerns lead to the closure of a military installation.
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2.Zero
emissions, environmentally friendly bases become the standard for deployed
UN peacekeeping forces.
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3.A
standing multinational force is created to respond to natural environmental
disasters.
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4.A
post-conflict battlefield remediation treaty is implemented.
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5.New
climate change data causes hysterical protests threatening political stability
around the world.
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6.A
new and/or re-emerging disease threat or outbreak triggers a regional or
global conflict.
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7.A
prominent national dispute/debate develops over the subject of giving up
sovereignty over environmental issues for the global good.
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8.New
sources and management of energy alters global political power relations.
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9.Sub-ocean
deposits of methane hydrates either boom (provide clean carbon) or blow-out
(devastatingly auto-release to the atmosphere).
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10. Increasing emphasis
on the sustainable use of natural resources causes a complete revision
of military construction, base operations, and training management policies.
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11. Military forces
are deployed in draught prevention (not mitigation or relief) measures.
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12. The first eco-sabotage
event takes place against a military installation.
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13. A rogue nation
develops doctrine to target environmental quality as an objective of warfare.
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14. The military
receives dramatic gain in energy efficiency (50%) due to climate change
and energy conservation requirements.
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15. The military
is given a new role in environmental conflict prevention and/or resolution.
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16. Artificial genetic
pollution is recognized as a global environmental safety or occupational
health threat.
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17. The first space-based
beamed energy system is deployed for use by military forces.
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18. Free market environmentalism
drives the development of green and energy efficient military systems.
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19. A global push
for environmental friendly non-lethal weapons emerges.
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20. Telemetrics enables
any environmental interest group to detect and measure almost any environmental
pollutant from a standoff position.
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21. Intergenerational
equity emerges as a required factor in environmental decisionmaking.
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22. The last internal combustion engine is
produced for the military usage.
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23. World economies
bid wildly for energy after petroleum production peaks in the face of rising
demand. Greed, opportunism and desperation vie for control.
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24. Sub-ocean deposit
of methane hydrate either boom (provide clean carbon) or blow-out (devastating
auto-release to the atmosphere).
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25. The world’s 20
largest military forces adopt ISO 14000.
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26. A standing international
tribunal is established to prosecute international environmental criminals.
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27. UN develops environmental
health standards for peacekeeping troops.
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28. Perchlorates
are banned from global use.
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29. Military
force is applied to curtail the smuggling of internationally banned substances
(POPs, CFCs, etc.).
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30. Domestic
(homeland defense) operations of military forces generate environmental
mitigation requirements.
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31. Increasing
public scrutiny and power causes military forces to change their environmental
decision-making processes.
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32. Recognition that
nuclear power plants require worldwide coordinated long-term monitoring
and protection.
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33. Urban
conflicts supplant open country battles as the terrain of choice for initiators.
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34. The
civilian environmental protection agency develops regulations to control
potential nano-pollution from the nano-bio-infotech industries.
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35. Environmentally-driven
migration triggers an international conflict.
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36. Transboundary
conflicts cause challenges between sovereignty and environmental security
in a supranational forum.
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37. The
Army achieves a lead(Pb)-free military infrastructure.
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38. Water
extraction from the air is developed as a desalination/water purification
alternative technology for military forces.
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39. A
major military conflict breaks out over water resources/quality.
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40. Invasive species
problems become pandemic and uncontrolled owing to unbridled trade &
human movement; the economic losses pass the $10 billion mark.
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41 Adapted organism
weapons are developed to attach mono-culture agriculture.
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42 Large-scale ocean
farms are created.
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43. Biotechnology
is used to build new kinds of weapons of mass destruction and these weapons
are deployed at least once.
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44. A major military
conflict breaks out over energy resources.
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What other environmental issues or events are likely
to face military forces over the period 2010 to 2025?
Comments: Please include the number of the items
about which you are commenting.
Thank you very much
for your participation.Please send
your response by e?mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org
and Tedjgordon@worldnet.att.comorfax
to +1?202?686?5179 or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council
for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC
20016, USA.