On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the third and final round of an international study on Emerging Environmental Issues and Events that May Affect Military Requirements over the period 2010 to 2025.

This research is part of the on-going work of the Millennium Project to develop the concepts of environmental security. The Project is funded by the sponsors, with additional funding for this particular study from the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute as input to the U.S. Army's Strategic Environmental Assessment for the Army's Transformation. Millennium Project reports are publicly available and are used in policy formation and education around the world.

The results of Round 1 (questionnaire) and Round 2 (a three-day workshop with futurists, environmentalists, and military officers) is available at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/es-results.html.

The enclosed Round 3 questionnaire builds on the previous rounds and requests your judgments about:
a) short descriptions of potential environmental security issues;
b) new military requirements in your country, including policy or procedures due to security concerns, or statutory, regulatory, or treaty requirements that will be necessary to address each item;
c) the effectiveness of the actions or requirements to address the issue; and
d) the year the military in your country might implement the new requirement.

No attributions will be made. All those who respond to the enclosed questionnaire will receive a copy of the full results in the 2002 State of the Future and be listed as participants. You are not required to answer all the questions; provide your judgments just about those items you feel most qualified and interested in addressing.

Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the Millennium Project by 1 December 2001. We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn, Director, Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, Millennium Project

The numbers after the developments come from Round 1 and/or Round 2 workshops' numbering so that participants can trace the evolution of the study.

You do not have to comment on all the issue descriptions or rate all of the actions. You are asked to provide your judgments just about those in which you have special expertise or interest.

a) In the space provided after the description of the development, issue, and/or threat, please add what you think will give the statement more insight, usefulness, and veracity.

b) In the first column after each suggested new requirement, provide your judgment about how effective it will be to address this issue. Use the following scale:

Efficacy Scale
5 = Will solve the issue
4 = Will be very effective
3 = Will help address the issue
2 = Will have little effect
1 = Will make the situation worse

d) If you believe other military requirements will result from the development, issue, and/or threat, then please add those - with the year you think it might be implemented by the military in your country -- in the space provided after the list of suggested requirements.

Please respond by 1 December 2001 and include your name, institutional affiliation and title, along with your post mail (where the 2002 State of the Future should be mailed) and e-mail addresses and fax number. All responses are confidential, and no attributions will be made.

Send your response by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@worldnet.att.com or fax to +1-202-686-5179 or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA.

1. Biotechnology is used to build new kinds of weapons of mass destruction and these weapons are deployed at least once (43). This includes the special case of: "adapted organism weapons are developed to attack mono-culture agriculture" (41).

Bio-weapons are already considered the "poor man's atom bomb." Existing pharmaceutical production technology can be used to make these weapons. The science of producing such organisms is already widely known and the cost is so low that even small groups, as well as poorer nations can afford them. The science of distributing, or "weaponizing" such organisms is rapidly advancing. Over the next 25 years, new kinds of organisms could be engineered to be more virulent than the recent Anthrax attacks in the US. Infiltration of pharmaceutical manufacturers by hostile agents brings up other scenarios.

Scientists are already developing "adapted organisms" to attack drug crops. Binary bio-weapons might also be used for blackmail (e.g., disperse one part of the weapon, and then threaten to deploy the second part if demands are not met). Some scientists even speculate that viruses could be designed to attack specific human groups. What happens if one day this technology for mass destruction becomes available to high school students?

The environmental consequences of using bio-weapons are important and may not be as limited and predictable as the impacts of chemical and nuclear weapons. Rogue nations or terrorists who want to wipe out large numbers are more likely to use them. Rather than attacking human life, bioweapons might also be designed to attack the environment that supports it, e.g., to cause defoliation, or to eliminate a crop or farm animal from a nation's economy.

This threat could be the most important future focus for a nation's military forces. However, some see little military role in addressing this kind of threat, because existing health, environmental, and agricultural systems already have the knowledge necessary to address it. Others think that it should be a military concern because any use of such bio-weapons in fact constitutes an attack by an enemy nation or terrorist network.

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action/requirement	Efficacy	Year
Pre-emptive military strikes to destroy bio-weapons
Using military forces to conduct mass vaccinations of the populace in response to a defined bio-weapon threat
Development and use of wide-spectrum vaccines
Development and use of human immune system boosters
Limits to immigration enforced by military
Enforcement of biotech export controls by military
Restricting movement of troops to prevent spread of biological agents of biological agents
Restricting movement of the populace by the military to prevent spread
Development of stand-off bio-sensors
Training military forces for quick response after an attack by such bio-weapons
Assisting in the formation and training of biological defense units in other countries
Establishing international / regional biological defense agreements
Coordination of military activities with civilian biological defense
Integration of military epidemiological systems with national epidemiological systems

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 
 

2. A major military conflict over water is understood by world leaders as extremely plausible (39)
 

Water tables are falling on all continents, while human demand for water increases worldwide. Global warming is shrinking mountain snow packs, reducing summer water supplies. Water quality and availability affect environmental quality for life support in general.
 

Although lack of potable water and availability of water for agricultural use may not be the only causes of wars, they could contribute to the cause of conflicts. Several recent transborder water problems have increased pressure for diplomatic cooperation and technological innovations in desalinization and water efficiencies in agricultural and urban usage. Water problems could also contribute to potential internal strife in China and India, which together account for over 1/3 of the world's population.
 

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action	Efficacy	Year
Development of rapidly deployable water supply and water purification systems
Using military engineers to conduct training and technical assistance for water infrastructure and management to prevent conflicts
Military protection of water supplies
Military security and oversight for selected civilian water systems
Development of national database of water resources by military
Military development and maintenance of a global database of water resources
Development of regional conflict prevention capacities within military force structures
Deployment of micro- and nano-sensors in water systems

 

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 

3. A new and/or re-emerging disease threat or outbreak triggers conflict, (6) social instability or disorder (e.g., AIDS goes airborne, global warming or loss of bio-diversity changes disease patterns, increasing anti-biotic resistance, etc.) (N01)

(Unlike Issue #1 above, which addresses a man-made biological threat, this issue focuses on natural biological threats and their mutations.)

Globalization increases the likelihood that some variation of this development will occur. As human migration increases, the biota carried within each person and by human transportation systems are inadvertently transferred to new hosts and ecosystems more often. Man-made changes to the environment, whether through direct application of biocidal agents or through secondary effects such as global warming, will increasingly cause mutations of naturally occurring microorganisms. This increasing distribution and rate of mutation poses challenges for the environmental, public health, and military communities.

For example, if the AIDS virus mutated and became an airborne pathogen, it would be easy to imagine many scenarios of panic and conflict. New diseases could also inadvertently trigger the loss of one or more major crops. This issue suggests a large range of other cascading effects on the environment.

Some argue that use of military forces is not a logical or effective means to address this issue. Military forces may participate in a logistical capacity, and may have to protect themselves, but too many other national resources could be used for a national response. Even if military forces were able to protect civilians via means of quarantine, their use would be a significant national security public policy question.

Others argue that at the transnational level, or to ensure social stability, military forces may have to be used. Conversely, military forces may have their operations restricted in order to prevent spread of pathogens. Recently, UK troops were denied the ability to move equipment to the US for joint exercises because of the threat of spreading hoof and mouth disease.

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action	Efficacy	Year
Establish and maintain military medical intelligence and preventive medicine labs
Enhance military collaboration with public health agencies such as the EPA, WHO, and CDC
Forecasting disease mutations, epidemiology, and resulting conditions for conflict
Military transborder intervention to prevent international impacts
Collaboration with or helping to establish / strengthen public health capacities in other countries
Development and use of wide-spectrum vaccines
Development and use of human immune system boosters
Immigration disease screening enforced by military
Restricting movement of troops to prevent spread of pathogens
Restricting movement of the populace by the military to prevent spread of pathogens

 

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 
 

4. Increasing emphasis on the sustainable use of natural resources causes a complete revision of military operations including construction, base operations, and training management policies (10). Increasing public scrutiny and power causes military forces to change their environmental decision making processes (31).

Urban sprawl is causing military installations and facilities to compete with other local stakeholders for natural resources. Public perception that the military does not adequately protect these resources often drives this local competition. Although military lands may be in better condition than the public believes them to be, societal demands on the military and its use of land are nevertheless changing. Public complaints over dust and noise, demands for urban development of "prime" real estate, and increasing requirements for water are all external forces that compete with the use of lands by the military. If these external trends continue, military installations will be forced to cease operations due to the loss of a sustainable symbiosis with their local communities.

In the US, military leadership refers to these external forces as "encroachment". Since training in the field is the "holy grail" of military training, any externality that impinges on field training will be resisted by the military culture. Because these encroachment trends are not likely to reverse, military bases will have to adapt. Military leaders' and new soldiers' mindsets with respect to how a military installation operates over the long-term in its environment and in its community will have to change.
 

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 
 
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action	Efficacy	Year
Contract military land management to civilians who manage the sustainable use of natural resources
Turn over military installations to local municipalities to manage in perpetuity for the military (as a long-term tenant)
Develop GIS (Geographic Information Systems) tools to better manage military training areas and monitor local encroachment factors
Improve the energy efficiency of military installation infrastructure by 50% (compared to 2000 energy efficiency)
Simulation fidelity reaches a point when it can replace field training of military forces
Include the concept of environmental sustainability in basic training
Military services define what the requirements and objectives are for
Military services include sustainable use of natural resources as a sustainable bases, sustainable operations, and sustainable systems
Phase out of production internal combustion engines for the military procurement requirement.
Establish a "Best Practices Database" that contains models of military environmental planning and operations that can be replicated in other regions
Military installation managers state environmental issues impacting natural resources in operating terms

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 

5. The after-effects of biological, chemical, or nanotech weapons or a nuclear incident require a massive cleanup or other large-scale military response. (N02)

Nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons are considered to be weapons of mass destruction because of the large-scale destructive effects that they produce. Developments in the field of nanotechnology are likely to produce another class of weapons of mass destruction in the future. Although the environmental contamination and effects of chemical and nuclear weapons can be predicted with good accuracy, biological weapons impacts are less predictable, and due to the emerging state of the science, the effects of nanotechnology-based weapons are mostly speculative at this time. If future nanotech weapons were intelligent and self-organizing, then their impacts could be entirely unpredictable.

Although some international rules currently exist for addressing such large-scale contamination, these new threats will require new approaches current organizations are generally unprepared for a large-scale response to a nuclear accident and would be required to implement severe measures to stabilize an incident.

The Kirsk (Russian submarine) incident shows that the country which caused the problem has the responsibility to clean up; however, international pressure was necessary, and Norway may assist in its own interest. Hence, responsibilities can be shared, depending on the spread of contamination and the risks to human health and ecosystems.

When a nation refuses help, or is not party to a relevant treaty, then the international community must enforce help. This implies potential forced-entry operations that impinge on national sovereignty. The criteria for such intervention are still evolving. The UN Security Council could be the vehicle for authorization and coordination of cleanup operations. As the UN authorized a forced-entry operation for food security in Somalia, it could do so one day for environmental security elsewhere.

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action	Efficacy	Year
Military provision of medical care for those who are already affected
Develop cheap, remote sensors to allow for stand-off detection andmonitoring of the after?effects of biological, chemical, or nanotech weapons or a nuclear incident pollution
Program an "off switch" in nanotech replicators to render them harmless
Create a self-destruct or "end-state" in bioweapons to render them harmless
Plan for creation of safe emergency dumps for mass disaster cleanups
Create mechanisms to comply with eventual treaties that define what the responsibilities of the various parties are

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 

6. A post-conflict battlefield remediation treaty is implemented. (04)

A post-conflict battlefield environmental remediation treaty seems inevitable. The environmentally destructive effects and by-products of military operations, such as unexploded ordnance which leaches explosives and heavy metals into groundwater, fuel spills and other chemicals released as a result of military action, and the destruction of vegetation by military vehicles or explosives will become central drivers for an international cleanup treaty.

This will lead commanders to consider what environmental impact their actions might have and force the development of weapons systems that create less pollution to begin with. Some argue that this could lead to reduced protection of soldiers to accommodate an ill-advised treaty. Others believe that this does not imply a reduction in force protection - just in what happens after the bullets stop flying. New military technologies, new doctrine, and new rules of engagement could result in less need for post-conflict remediation, without compromising protection of forces during the conflict.

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action	Efficacy	Year
Development of rules of engagement that avoid environmental damage
Development of ordnance that has a zero "dud" rate and/or which has programmed self-destruct features
Development of battlefield rapid remediation technologies to lessen subsequent restoration requirements
Development of new institutional relationships between the military and the private sector to assist in such post-conflict cleanup operations
Development of non-toxic explosives
The development of new models and instruments to measure the environmental impact of military operations
Ubiquitous cheap, remote sensors to allow for stand-off detection of pollution on military bases or of military operations by third parties (like environmental groups)

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 

7. Military forces are given a new role in environmental conflict prevention and/or resolution (15)

Since environmental factors are just as likely to contribute to instability as political, social, or economic ones, environmental conflict prevention or resolution may be an important part of environmental security. For example, the military could be called upon to provide water resources where it is too dangerous for regular development agencies, or to prevent further deforestation of rainforests that have been reduced to the point of threatening a critical element of global life support systems.

As the UN puts more emphasis on environmental security, which will be reflected through its peacekeeping operations, national militaries that participate in UN peacekeeping will be influenced. Prevention of environmental destruction, environmental education, and environmental restoration could become elements of future peacekeeping missions. However, some argue that prevention of environmental problems that could contribute to conflicts is the province of other (non-military) agencies.

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action	Efficacy	Year
Development of a UN doctrine for environmental security operations
Development of new military equipment for environmental missions
Training of soldiers for environmental missions
Simulation fidelity reaches a point where it can replace field training of armed forces

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 
 

8. Future conflicts will be driven by rogue states and terrorists, changing the nature of environmental challenges facing military forces. (A5) A rogue nation develops doctrine to target environmental quality as an objective of warfare. (13)

Since September 11, 2001, it is increasingly clear that future conflicts are likely to be more asymmetric and driven by 'Rogue' states and terrorists. Several years ago, one major country published military doctrine that included attacking the environment as a part of "total war." These factors will change the nature of the environmental challenges facing military forces. For example, military forces will increasingly be used in areas not considered "hostile" territory, forcing them to consider the economic and public health end-state of the conflict in addition to the political and military outcomes. Such conflicts will be fought among civilian targets and in cities. Many will be with guerilla forces. Public safety and human welfare will likely dominate these conflicts, which will affect what weapons and tactics are used. Military forces will be required to follow specific environmental rules of engagement. This has already happened in many international conflicts of the last decade.

Additional comments on the text above:
 
 
 
 
 

Some suggested military actions to address this issue are listed below. Please provide your estimate of the action's effectiveness for addressing the issue using the scale 5 (highest) to 1 (lowest) as shown in the instructions, and the year in which you estimate it to become a requirement for the military forces of your country:
 

Military action	Efficacy	Year
Use of military forces to isolate 'Rogue' states
R&D for defense against such asymmetric attacks
Development of doctrine for military responses to attacks on the environment

Additional military requirements and/or comments on the above suggested requirements:
 
 
 
 

9. What other environmental developments, issues, or threats do you think will create new military requirements sometime between 2010 and 2025?
 
 

What new requirements and when do you think they might be implemented?
 
 
 
 

Thank you very much for your participation.
 

Please send your response by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@worldnet.att.com or fax to +1-202-686-5179 or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA.