The Millennium Project

Feasibility Report

Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

Internet Edition

1996

4421 Garrison Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20016-4055
U.S.A.

Telephone and Fax (202) 686-5179
e-mail:jglenn@igc.org
Internet Home Page: http://nko.org/millennium/Millennium Project.html.

in cooperation with the
Smithsonian Institution, and The Futures Group

with support from the
United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and United Nations Educational Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

during feasibility study under institutional auspisces of
UNU headquarters (Phases I and II) and WIDER (Phase III)

The Millennium Project

Feasibility Report

Table of Contents

Appendix

Abbreviations
AC/UNU American Council for the United Nations University
ADB African Development Bank
CNAM Conservatoire National d'Arts et Metier, Paris, France
email Electronic Mail
EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
EU European Union
FSKS Future Studies Knowledge Space
ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions
IFIAS International Federation of Institutes of Advanced Studies
INCORE Joint International Programme on Conflict Resolution and Ethnicity of the UNU and University of Ulster
ITU International Telecommunications Union
ISDN Integrated Services Digital Netowrk
MP Millennium Project
NAS National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OTA Office of Technology Assessment of the U.S. Congress
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Program
UNFPA United Nations Fund for Population Activities
UNU United Nations University
UNU/ UNU/Institute for
INTECH New Technologies
UNU/ UNU/World Institute for Development
WIDER Economics Research
USDA United States Department of Agriculture
WAIS Wide Area Information Server - Internet search system
WFS World Future Society
WFSF World Future Studies Federation
US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
WHO World Health Organization
WIDER World Institute for Development Economics Research
WWW World Wide Web (computer communications among diverse data banks)

Executive Summary

The Millennium Project is designed to provide a global capacity for early warning on long-range issues. The purpose of the Project is to assist in organizing futures research, to update continuously and improve global thinking about the future, and to make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in public policy making, advanced training, and public education. It accomplishes these ends by connecting individuals and institutions around the world to collaborate on research to address important global issues. The project is not intended to produce a one-time study of the future, but to provide an on-going capacity for identification, assessment, and analysis of issues with global impact; it is, essentially, a geographically and institutionally dispersed think tank. Its primary products include:  

In addition to these core activities, the Project will also be responsive to requests for studies that fit Project criteria discussed later in this report.

Working through the American Council for the United Nations University, the Millennium Project collaborates with other United Nations Organizations, governments, corporations, and non-governmental organizations to optimize research resources of a relatively small Project staff. Through advanced telecommunications and software, as well as more traditional means, the Project will produce state-of-the-art issues and methodology reports in a variety of media. To connect research to implementation, policy makers will be encouraged to participate in the Project's research, advanced training, and other activities, including symposia.

HISTORY: In 1992, the United Nations University (UNU) initiated the feasibility study of this Project in cooperation with the Smithsonian Institution, The Futures Group, American Council for the UNU, and with funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Phase I) and the United Nations Development Program's African Futures Program (Phase II). In Phase I futurists and scholars were connected (via Internet, fax, and air mail) to create the initial design of the Project and conduct a first test on population and environmental issues. In Phase II, international teams, with the aid of peer reviews, created a book on futures research methodology and six books on long-range issues important to Africa.

The purpose of the feasibility study was to determine how it might be possible to organize a global capacity for futures research that could continuously update and improve humanity's thinking about the future, and make that thinking available through a variety of media for better decisions, training, education, and public feedback to evolve the Project more intelligently (See Appendix page 26 for more detailed objectives and procedures of the feasibility study). Phase III reviewed all elements of the project and circulated the draft design among the 200 participants of the first two phases. This report concludes Phase III of the feasibility study conducted under the auspices of the UNU's World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) and funded by UNESCO through the American Council/UNU.

Purpose of Futures Research

The primary purpose of futures research is to give coherence and direction to planning processes. Futures research distills a vast array of information from many academic disciplines, and professions, including journalism about dynamics that have shaped the world and how those forces might change to create new opportunities, threats, and uncertainties. Systematic stock-taking of the past and assessment of future possibilities provides a clearer understanding of the conditions of the world today, leading to more informed decisions.

As increasing complexity and acceleration of change decrease the lead-time for decisions, early warning becomes more valuable as a way to increase time for analysis. Although one cannot know the future, one can know a range of possible and desirable futures, and evaluate the assumptions upon which those futures are based. Futures research provides a broad framework for such study. Its methodologies identify, explore, and test the plausibility of potential future events, trends, and visions.

Whether consciously or not, future images influence processes that create long-term policies, strategies, and plans. Future studies examines the plausibility of such images, and the gap between desirable future visions and likely futures produced by current dynamics of change. Future studies helps bring desired and likely future circumstances in closer alignment. This approach improves our ability to anticipate change, adapt to forces beyond our control, and influence those within our control.

Findings of the Feasibility Study:

After a three-year feasibility study which tested some elements of the project
on a smaller scale, it was found that:

There Is a Need and a Millennial Opportunity

It is widely acknowledged that the current pace, complexity, and globalization of change requires attention to potential futures via multi-cultural and multidisciplinary perspectives. The change of millennia provides a unique psychological focus for a global review of the past and assessment of future possibilities. The change of millennia could be the greatest "teaching moment" in history, but what will be taught? The Millennium Project can provide the basis for discussion about key issues and alternative futures at precisely the moment when such discussion can have lasting and important consequences. The millennium creates an opportunity for establishing a permanent system for assessing possible futures; such a system is desirable and will provide valuable input to planning for many kinds of organizations.

There is no mechanism to conduct continuous, worldwide efforts to take stock of the past and assess possible futures. Although there are many individual, isolated, special purpose, and one-time study efforts underway, there is no international system that provides coherence, systematic feedback, or integrated continuity to these studies. There is no sense of a resulting, cumulative wisdom about future opportunities and dangers.

With growing interest in the future as the millennium approaches, the spread of instantaneous and global communications, the ability to evoke, capture, and share information and perceptions with logical, systematic questioning techniques, and the advent of powerful new non-deterministic modeling techniques, the proliferation of data bases, and knowledge visualization, it is now possible for futurists, scholars, and others around the world to interact globally to examine future possibilities and potential policies from perspectives not previously available.

The Millennium Project Is Financially 
and Managerially Feasible

Financially, the Project has attracted funds from United Nations organizations, the United States Government, the Russian Federation, and in-kind corporate contributions for printing from the Acacia Group. Organizations that have a need to include a range of international and multi-disciplinary input to their plans are potential financial contributors to the Project. The long-range financial objective is to endow the core operations of the project. In the meantime, grants and
contracts for specific studies will initiate the Project. One such initial study has been identified and others seem likely.1 ("Forecasting and policy applications of research in complexity, chaos, adaptive agent modeling, and self-organization for social transformation: a case study of Russia," was approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology Policy of the Russian Federation (See Appendix, page 28). The U.S. Environ-mental Protection Agency has begun discussions on the possibility of the creation of a look-out panel and the potential for the introduction of the process to other departments of government. A department of Al-Azhar University in Cairo has requested collaboration on a study of the future of culture. Other offers of collaboration have also been received.) Managerially, the Project has used contemporary software and telecommunications to identify and link futurists and scholars around the world and mobilized information. The feasibility study demonstrated that a relatively small staff can manage diverse input from hundreds of individuals primarily engaged in other pursuits.

Its Initial Research Procedures and Information Systems Have Been Tested

In the feasibility study, international panels were assembled electronically and via more traditional means to address substantive issues and develop methodology. These studies were done on a smaller scale than envisaged for the operational Project. This testing of "feasibility by doing" provided many valuable lessons that have shaped the Project's design.

Key Benefit: The Project Can Improve Futures
Thinking for Decision Making

As a result of the feasibility study's first multi-futurist review of a broad range of methodologies in nearly 15 years (Frontiers of Futures Studies: A Hand-book of Tools and Methods. UNDP 1995), interest has grown in evaluating, integrating, and developing old and new methodologies, investigating standards in the use of methods, and conducting periodic reviews to improve the state-of-the-art of futures research methodologies and their applications. As a result of the feasibility study's assessment of issues important to the future of Africa, futurists around the world are now more involved in assisting national long-term prospective studies in Africa. African long-range planners have become more integrated including those of UNDP, ADB, ITU, WHO, UNFPA, and UN Outer Space Affairs as a result of an application of the long range issues work performed in the second phase of the Project's feasibility study in preparation for the African Futures 2025 meeting at the UN Secretariat in 1994. This can be done for other regions and issues. The project provides a link to advanced and multidisciplinary thought around the world.

The Project Can Attract and Coordinate 
Leading Futurists and Scholars

Over 200 futurists and scholars from nearly 50 countries participated in the feasibility study. Their participation was appropriately based on their desire to learn about and influence the design of the Project, their perceptions of the potential of the project as a utility to improve their own work, and their desire to contribute to a system than can provide information to improve decisions. Organizations that have an issues-scanning function, or have a mandate to keep abreast of a broad range of futures thinking, have a need for access to a non-political, scholarly, and international system of future studies. The collective research, judgement, and vision of the participants have shaped this report, and the prior reports of Phases I and II. All have contributed their time and research gratis or well below their normal fees.


The Project's Institutionalization 
Can Begin Small and Grow Creatively

The long-range financial objective is to have the core project endowed, but to begin with operating and project-specific funding. The Project's institutional home is proposed to be the American Council for the United Nations University. Participating institutions and groups of institutions or "nodes" devoted to particular topic areas, and other imaginative organizational approaches, will evolve. The Millennium Project has already begun working with affiliated institutions (referenced in the previous footnote) who will have access to the full range of the Project's global research system.

Utility of the Millennium Project

For the United Nations: provision of an early warning system which identifies and continually reassesses critical issues of global significance. The Project can contribute to the change from international to global thinking, and further the philosophy of the UN.

For the United Nations University: assistance in the UNU's early alert function to the UN Secretariat. The Project can provide a mechanism (the annual state-of-the-future report) for the integration of research results from many themes of the UNU's research, and test issue-based software for use in mapping the range and relationships of UNU's research findings.

For Governments: an international extension to their national early warning systems by contributing rapid, academically autonomous assessments of policy impacts of issues important to their policy process. As foreign travel budgets shrink, assistance in global assessment will become more necessary, along with the use of the Project's resource directory of participants and institutions. The Project's more general work will provide a planning context for government's long-term R&D and other planning. Governments can also use the Project's methods and issues research in their advanced training.

For the Academic Community: extension of individual scholars's research networks and connection of relevant university programs into a global collaborative effort. This will make individual scholars' assessments of the dynamics of change more complete and provide a context in which futures research and its methods can be evaluated and improved. An extensive review of futures research and studies methodology was completed during the feasibility study. This review, currently being published by UNDP, can be used by the international academic research community as a common beginning from which to improve the state-of-the-art of futures research methodology. The academic community can use this work to improve the teaching of futures studies, and could determine what standards are possible in the applications of methodology and for the qualifications for doctoral programs in futures research. The Project provides an international forum in which scholars can pose questions, disseminate research for feedback, reach agreements about futures terminology and procedures, and develop more coherence in the teaching of future studies and other courses related to the dynamics of global change. The Project's information system will bring together sources of information and ideas concerned with future studies useful to those who teach the dynamics of change and future studies, and offers a point of contact to futures research for the non-futurist scholar.

For Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) involved in development: assessment of global issues and policies from which they can draw development priorities. The Project represents a system that can collect early signals of change that they have identified in the field and from which they can receive international feedback on their findings. For the NGO think tanks: a futures research utility to expand their capacity.

For Business and the Private Sector: access to participants, institutions, and the information system that can provide a better understanding of the world in which they will have to work, and hence gain better information for the management of uncertainty. Such information can reduce wasted time and resources by helping corporate planning identify what is more likely to be useful tomorrow. Contact with the Project and access to lists of people, organizations, and research in the network will extend individual corporate capabilities, assist in the internation-alization of strategic thinking, provide materials for internal training in methods and issues, and create new links between the business community and United Nations Organizations.

For the World-At-Large: access to an international information utility for the many isolated efforts to take stock of the past and re-envision the future as the Millennium approaches; participation in a global forum on the future that is multi-national, multi-disciplinary, and with perspectives from UN organizations, governments, NGOs, academics, and the general public; access to a clearinghouse of methodology and experience; and mechanism to help the world think together about the future. The general public can learn the assumptions about the future and the implications of holding these assumptions with regard to planning. The Project can speed up the learning process about choices confronting humanity.

It is not reasonable to ask people to cooperate in building a better tomorrow without some sense of a shared, multi-faceted, and compelling image of the future. The Project is designed to provide a utility for the evaluation and sharing of such millenium views; and hence, could contribute to a more peaceful future.

Donor Participation

At this time the operational Project is not funded. Funds are being sought for endowment and operational contributions for core work. Grants and contracts will be welcomed for project-specific research.

The Millennium Project Concept

The Millennium Project represents a geographically diffuse think tank that draws its strength from informed, perceptive, and imaginative people and institutions around the world. Its home within the American Council for the United Nations University (UNU) allows it the additional opportunity to draw on the research from other UNU programs and to contribute to the integration of that research. As the primary academic research organization of the United Nations, the UNU has established research relations with other organs of the UN, as well as universities around
the world.

The Project provides a unique international mix of academic and policy orientation for futures research. Given high quality and innovative research, it could become recognized as a resource for decision-makers2,(US EPA's Science Advisory Board considered the Millennium Project work in the design of its early warning system design. UNDP used the second phase of the Millennium Project's feasibility study for its futures methodology and issues materials with the National Long-Term Prospective Studies in African countries and based its African Futures 2025 strategy meeting at the UN Secretariat on this work. The Ministry of Science and Technology Policy of the Russian Federation has requested an application of new forms of futures research to its policy studies.) and a unique source of educational material.3 (University Futures Studies programs such as the Program for the Study of the Future at the University of Houston have begun using
the methodology series produced during the feasibility study.)Its reports will illustrate how important issues arose, and the outlook for the issues, considering the trends in progress, normative aspirations, and the future events that could alter the trends. The Millennium Project reports will consider the available policy options and their potential consequences. Information used in its studies will be available through several media, including print, video, computer diskettes, and an international information system with electronic connections to other related data banks and panel participants.

Operating continuously, the Project will identify and collect judgments about important world issues via "look- out" panels of several hundred Project participants. In parallel, Project staff will also scan a variety of sources to identify issues of fundamental change. Issues that are accorded priority using Project criteria of the following sort will have their own "research" panel to explore the issue in depth through a full range of futurists' methods. The following criteria for issues selection were identified and rated in order of importance by the international panel during the first phase of the feasibility study:

1. Severity, range, and inter-relatedness of effects;
2. Number of people affected;
3. Ability to affect outcome with policy;
4. Imminence of impacts;
5. Lack of a responsible decision-maker;
6. Permanence or irreversibility of effects;
7. Probability of the prospective issue materializing; and
8. Complexity.

Other factors identified during Phase I do not lend themselves easily to evaluation, but will nevertheless be considered: equity; whether disagreement may lead to major conflict; relevance to addressing gaps between richer and poorer countries versus addressing civilization as-a-whole; issues about which decision-makers believe they have poor guidance; and cost if a bad decision is made and benefit if a good decision is made.

In addition to the look-out panels and issues scanning, backdrop scenarios and more specialized scenarios germane to selected issues will be collected and created by Project staff to help further focus the work for the research panels. The following chart illustrates how these elements fit together. At any point in time, during full operations, three to four issues will be simultaneously studied through research panels of 50 to 200 individuals from around the world. Panelists will be recognized experts, futurists, scholars, policy analysts, activists, politicians, and other people qualified by their demonstrated and deep interest in the topics at hand, insight, or ability to contribute original thought and/or make policy. Recommendations for panel membership will come from ongoing literature searches, peer recommendations, professional organizations, leading universities, and other less structured sources (see Phase I feasibility study report on the process of organizing the Project for a more detailed explanation of panel selection procedures).

The Project will start with basic core activities and expand through special activities.

Core Activities

Special Activities

Once the project is fully endowed, research panels will be constituted in each of the Project's domains: Demographics and Human Resources; Technological Capacity; Environmental Change and Biodiversity; Governance and Conflict; and International Economics and Wealth. Annual state-of-the-future reports will be prepared for each domain, in addition to the core activity of the integrated annual state-of-the-future report. As additional funds become available increased training and education programs, multi-media products, and new methodological applications will be included in the Project. In addition, fellowships and internships can be formally offered.

Depending on the nature of the research and panelists' contributions, expenses would be reimbursed for communications, data access, and international travel to Millennium Project workshops. Honoraria will also be offered. Alternatively, panelists could be "paid" by being permitted to pose questions of their own on the network, by receiving donations of hardware and software, and/or throughpeer review of their work. When more extensive writing is involved, joint copyright and royalties will be considered.

Communications with and among panelists will be by email, fax, and airmail. Email, computer conferencing, and group messaging are pre-ferred for tasks requiring greater interaction. Where necessary, equipment, software, and training would be provided to those requiring greater interaction beyond airmail and fax. Communications via a mix of email, airmail, and fax are sufficient for communications requiring less inter-action, such as the look-out panels involved in issues identification.

Research will be linked to decision-makers' action by involving them in the research as appropriate, and through advanced seminars and training when possible. For example, the Ministry of Science and Technology Policy of the Russian Federation will include senior policy makers in a Millennium Project study as well as conducting a final seminar to discuss the study's conclusions. As currently planned, after completion of the Millennium Project's work, an internal Russian study (in which the Project would not participate) would further define the policy implications and alternatives for Russia.

Look-out and research panelists' comments can be anonymous, although the names of people participating in each panel will be published with the report. Those working on special studies, or commissioned papers, will be recognized.

Each of the issue-based research panels will require from three months to one year to complete. In special cases, more rapid assessments can be accomplished.

The first phase of the feasibility study asked for suggestions about appropriate funding agencies for the Project. The responses included: United Nations organi-zations, governments, non-governmental organizations and institutions, private foundations, and corporations. Such donors may recommend research agenda, and place issues in the queue if they meet the Project's criteria. Donor representatives participate on research planning committees, but respect autonomy of research panels, and receive the results of the analysis simultaneously with others.

Once implemented in conjunction with U.N. organizations, a sense of unifying cohesion, dynamism, active problem avoidance, and forward-looking policy-making may be contributed to the U.N. system and other institutions requiring global futures research in their planning process (see Appendix for a more detailed, distilled listing of benefits identified by participants in the feasibility study and the Appendix page 36 for their judgements as to the potential results of the Project).

Selection of Issues, Research 
Sequence, and Procedures

Phase 1 of the Millennium Project Feasibility Study produced the design and initial testing of a method for eliciting and synthesizing expert opinion from diverse futurists and scholars around the world. The expert opinion focused on perceived future global issues and policies that might be effective in dealing with those issues.5 (Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn, Phase I Report: Issues in Creating the Millennium Project, UNU October 1993. This report also conducted a "test run" using an international panel to identify and evaluate some important future environmental developments as well as to produce a forecast of population size in several countries and regions.)In late 1993, in a separate initiative not associated with the UNU, the administrator of the US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) asked the Agency's Science Advisory Board (SAB) to review methods available for detecting incipient environmental problems of potential
interest, determine whether they would be useful to EPA, and to identify some future problems on the horizon about which the Agency ought to be concerned. One of the authors (Gordon) worked with the SAB in designing this early warning methodology for EPA. The selected approach used many of the findings of the first phase of the Millennium Project's feasibility study, which had been funded a year earlier by the EPA, and thus represented a second iteration of the design concepts that had been developed in the initial work. This section of the report draws on both the first and second phases of the feasibility study as well as the EPA material.6 (Beyond the Horizon: Confronting Environmental Futures With Foresight, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Science Advisory Board, December, 1994. )

Giving early warning on global issues is a primary purpose of the Millennium Project's research procedures. The methods included in the Millennium Project are designed to:7 (A more complete discussion of early warning systems and procedures is covered in the Phase II issues report: Environmental Scanning. This report is available on Internet Gopher futures.wic.epa.gov)

 

To satisfy these design requirements, the Millennium Project will identify issues by conducting look-out panels, managing an issues scanning process, and collecting and writing backdrop scenarios.8 (Each of these approaches are explained in the methods series from the second Phase of the feasibility study, under the titles: Scenario Construction, Delphi, and Environmental Scanning. The full set of 18 future studies and research papers will be published by UNDP and is currently available via Internet on gopher futures.wic.epa.gov.)The issues identified by these three approaches would be rated or screened by the Project planning committee using the Project criteria listed previously. Those issues selected as the most important for study would then be passed to research panels. Participants in these research panels will be selected by the process outlined below. The research panels, in coordination with the Millennium Project staff, would select their methodological approaches. Conclusions will be made available through a variety of media for policymaking, advanced training, and systematic feedback. This is a generic model for the Millennium Project that would be adapted to many unforeseen institutional requirements and opportunities for collaboration. More detail of the sequence and elements of the procedures are given below.

LOOK-OUT PANELS utilize experts in the field and other interested and informed participants who are in a position to observe, first-hand, key developments and assess data pertaining to future world issues that could serve as an early warning of developments of importance. This is a source of information about future issues, that provides judgments from selected participants about specific developments that may be of concern.

SCANNING involves a continuous review of published information, conferences, Internet, and contacts with other future-oriented organizations. The literature review will include both formal publications in scholarly journals and books, and informal publications in magazines, books, and some of the newer media such as electronic news groups, data bases, and group messaging systems on the Internet. In addition, the Project's presence on Internet has attracted and will continue to attract recommendations for items to be considered. Such new items that need review can be sent to relevant individual and institutional participants, as well as related expert electronic groups. The results of this peer review can be added to the scanning data base. This allows for new items to come from a vast array of sources and be evaluated by a rich diversity of experts. The scope of the literature review will also go well beyond the bounds of traditional literatures and will include seemingly peripheral disciplines. Staff resources permitting, it will also include a systematic review of future-oriented data that are collected by the UN and other organizations. Not all the print scanning would be done by the small Millennium Project staff; however, the staff would manage the scanning data base and provide quality control via the review process just mentioned. Much can be contributed by individual and organizational members of the Project. The Project would also create formal links to other future-oriented organizations in governments, non-governmental organizations, and in industry to exchange data and perceptions about future developments that could have consequences on a world scale. Over a hundred organizations have expressed interest in such collaboration with the Millennium Project (see Appendix page 31), and could provide a majority of input to this activity. Although general futures scanning is an on-going activity of the Project, once a specific issue is identified for a research panel, focused scanning will commence on that issue.

SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION involves producing a set of internally consistent images of the future based not only on current trends but on perceptions about future developments that could change those trends. In the approach outlined here, these images of the future are studied to identify future issues and opportunities. Scenarios also serve as backdrops for analyzing the significance of issues identified by other means, and for evaluating a range of strategies to address the issues. This is a source of ideas about future world issues that builds from holistic images about the future circumstances that may exist.

These three information sources (Look-Out Panels, Scanning, and Scenarios) are intended to produce an array of possible issues and opportunities for consideration. As mentioned previously, the results will be screened or rated by the Planning Committee9 (As explained in Section 4 Institutionaliza-tion, the Project Planning Committee is composed of ten to twelve individuals who represent a range of experience, knowledge, and are a cross-section of participants in the Project. It previews the overall Project work and issues selection from look-out panels, Scanning, and Scenarios.)to identify the issues likely to be of highest significance by using criteria developed during the feasibility study (listed previously). In one approach, a matrix may be constructed to estimate a "score" for each issue. In this approach, weights are assigned to each criterion; the weights represent the perceived contribution of each to the relative importance of an issue. Alternatively, structural cost/benefit or other measures can be used to assess priority. While such techniques can produce "scores" for each issue, these should be considered only in a relative sense to separate the top of the list from the bottom.

Pending financial constraints, the items that pass through this filter and are assigned priority will be given to research panels for review, assessment, analysis, forecasting, and cost benefit and risk analysis to determine threat levels and to list most promising policies. The scenarios constructed previously, along with the results of the Look-Out Panels, and Scanning will be available to the panels. The Millennium Project staff will provide methodological and logistics support to each panel including final production and distribution of findings and assessments.

Advisory committees consisting of a dozen or so experts will assist the core staff by helping to formulate questions about the issues, interpret answers, and provide initial recommendations about potential research panelists (although, to avoid the possibility of cliques, the staff will form the final list from the sources listed in the next paragraph). In forming the issue-relevant questions for the research panel, the advisory committees will be given open-ended questions to address. Their answers will be used as the raw material for the more precisely-structured panel questionnaires, or research instructions for panels, and methodological recommendations.
 

PANEL SELECTION: The participants in the research panels (as well as the more general look-out panels) will be chosen based on a profile with factors such as: 1) academic discipline or profession; 2) orientation as futurist, policy analyst, scholar, and activist; 3) orientation as normative and exploratory forecaster; 4) creative, imaginative thinkers, science fiction writers, and artists who are less academically-oriented; 5) experience with policy-making or political leadership with the issue; and 6) sex, age, and geographic distribution. They should be identified by a continual and systematic literature search of articles, books, and papers on the expected or desirable future, as well as from an analysis of biographies from the Millennium Project, World Future Society, World Future Studies Federation, and electronic journals on Internet. Nominations should also come from recommendations by panelists selected for the feasibility study, the Millennium Project planning committee, university department chairs, and relevant professional organizations such as IFIAS, ICSU, Club of Rome, think tanks, and national academies of sciences. Additionally, new leaders could be identified through professional conferences and doctoral dissertations.

All of these methods rely on publication or personal knowledge of those associated with the project. Respondents to the Phase I Delphi on the process of organizing the Project concluded that there are many people whom the Project participants do not know, or who have not published, who may also make excellent contributions to this work. The problem is how to find them. Suggestions on how to identify these individuals centered on self-selection through conducting competitions, responding to inquires received by the project, and the public process explained in the following paragraph.

Parallel to the formal process, the Millennium Project will include a second, broader, less formal panel process as well. Parallel panels would be open to contributions from anyone. These might be managed by the World Future Society's Profession Division with a special relationship to the Millennium Project. As an experiment, these parallel panels could be conducted via an international public messaging group on Internet (a listserv) or bulletin boards connected by the Internet. This parallel process could also serve as the basis for collecting observations about incipient issues and prospective policies, and provide a medium for debate and discussion about these subjects. There is an increasingly strong precedent and trend for this kind of U.N. and parallel NGO process within the
50-year history of the United Nations.

The data provided by the research panels will be used in conjunction with quantitative models and other analysis techniques when possible in order to reach judgments about the outcome of projected developments. For example, a research panel on economic growth and other basic macroeconomics might use time-series and economic models to build scenarios. If a research panel on population were asked how a new contraceptive might affect birth rates, a simulation model might be used to compute the population size, using their estimated ranges. If a research panel on technology were asked to imagine and assess a range of impacts of new forms of genetic engineering, trend impact analysis and scenarios might be used.

The results of the panels and the subsequent analysis10 (Recently developed software that was positively reviewed during the feasibility study will allow Project staff to organize the out put of research panels into an "issues-based" data base that graphically shows relationships between issues, positions, arguments, and research. This makes infor- mation easily viewed, while stored in full complexity. It can also allow for new inputs and comments to be added in a logical fashion to facilitate policy dialogues. )will be presented and discussed in public forums and disseminated in Project publications, and scholarly journals, and will be made available through communications mechanisms such as Internet for further feedback.

This generic process should be used to establish the overall priorities of the Millennium Project on a continual basis and to produce periodic reports. This process is designed so that the Project learns from feedback and improves. During the feasibility study a range of views were expressed on what should be produced annually such as: up-dates of the Future of Sub-Saharan Africa series; futures research methodological series; state-of-the-future report on global issues of importance to the world as-a-whole; early warning reports for the UN Secretariat; and future implications of the integration of UNU's program reports. The pre-feasibility study recommended annual reports on the state-of-the-future by the following domains11 (See Appendixfor discussion of domains):

Demographics and Human Resources Technological Capacity
Environmental Change and Biodiversity Governance and Conflict
International Economics and Wealth Futures Research Methodology
Dissemination and Public Education Integration and Whole Futures

Although these domains have been retained for the purposes of organizing information for the early warning system, sufficient funding for annual state-of-the-future reports in each domain is not likely during the first few years of the Project. Instead, a more modest program will integrate forecasts in these domains to produce a more general state-of-the-future report and methodological upgrades.

The agenda of the operational Project will be updated by a combination of results of the look-out panels and research opportunities and needs identified by participating institutions or "nodes" of the Project. The United Nations system, including its specialized agencies, can be actively involved in this process through participation in the Planning Committee, look-out panels, research panels, and as a participating institution. Early warning signs of world problems and trends usually will be discovered in the field, through observations and monitoring, and through public inquiries and citizen concerns. The scanning system, look-out panel, and scenario building process must be sensitive to this information. Output from the futures analysis process will assist UN agencies and others in their planning process.
 

International Information System

The Project's information system will evolve from a simple base to a more advanced system over a several-year period. The current system is composed of: 1) data bases at the Project's coordinating office; 2) Home Page on Internet at the Maui High Performance Computing Center compliments of the No Ka Oi Foundation (http://nko.mhpcc.edu/millennium/Millennium Project.html); 3) group messaging via Internet (listserv) at George Washington University for those working on the Project; 4) listserv at The American University for open public discussion and feedback on the Project and its research; and 5) report data bases via Internet at the U.S. EPA. The coordinating office uses these systems on behalf of those without Internet access who contact the Project's coordinating office by international mail, telephone, or fax.

Millennium Project's Home Page on Internet

The Millennium Project of the World Institute of Development Economics Research, United Nations University is designed to assist in organizing futures research, to continuously update and improve global thinking about the future, and to make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in public policy making, advanced training, public education, and feedback to the project for its continued improvement. Its objectives include: ongoing identification and assessments of the most significant long-range issues; management of a communications network of futurists and scholars with an international information system of futures research with public access; production of annual state of the future and methodologies. Select from the following menu for more information:
 

Futures Issues Reports Futures Research Methods

Discussion Groups Project Overview and Up-Dates

Issues Scanning Affiliated Institutions and Nodes

Futurist Organizations Related Research

Resumes of Project Participants Email to Millennium Project

Guided Tour

Help

Exit
 

As the Millennium Project's information system evolves, it will facilitate a broad range of user interfaces ranging from mailed inquiries for copies of reports to state-of-the-art integration of the telephone, computer, television and other information elements. The information system will be designed to serve all participants, including those who are in regions with little advanced computer communications support, as well as others who have access to and interest in the most advanced information processing techniques. The systems must be sensitive to the need for multi-language use, provide access to external sources, and allow for contradictory points of view (see footnote 10 and Phase I report Appendix: Issues Based Information System).

Imagine a sequence of capabilities with fundamental abilities provided as quickly as possible (five elements above), and then expanding to provide advanced functions that may include multimedia conferencing and data bases using next generation digital network technology (such as Internet's CU SeeMe, or ISDN - Integrated Services Digital Network - that gives full text, sound, graphic, and video search and retrieval, or B-ISDN for Broadband ISDN.) Millennium Project panelists with computer communications access would connect to the servers directly. Those using other media (phone, fax, and airmail) would send their requests and contributions directly to the Millennium Project Staff or to the nearest member of the panel who works with the system on their behalf. External databases play a fundamental role in providing bibliographic access, up-to-the-minute source data, multimedia storage, etc. Internet is used to augment peer review (e.g. Listservs) and 'publish' material (accessible by Gopher, WAIS, and Mosaic on servers used by the Millennium Project).

International Information System: A General Model

Content in Project's Computer Servers and Data Bases

Issues analysis from look-out panels, results of research panels, current methodological papers, computer models, project overview and updates, resumes of participants, related research and institutions. As possible, text will be augmented by sound, video, and graphic data.
 

Internet Connection

Millennium Project coordinating office contacted Millennium Project via email, fax, airmail or phone; Project Staff helpsparticipants and the in the use of the information system for thosegeneral public with electronic access or accesses these systemson behalf of those who do not.

Internet Connection
 

How Accessed and Modes of Interactive Communications

For those with computer communications access: Email, computer conferences, listservs, world wide web Home Page, and collaboratory. For those without this access: airmail, voice phone, and fax to Project staff who then accesses the systems electronically on their behalf.
 

After five or more years, we expect that the Millennium Project information system would allow access via a variety of terminals from nearly anywhere in the world. More advanced environments would have knowledge visualization interfaces with hypermedia object menus for Internet-like information servers via ISDN or powerful direct lines. The long-range vision for the information system is that anyone can access the full range of views of the future collected from interactions among leading futurists and scholars, access the relevant research associated with these views, and can contribute their own best research and thinking to extend that range.

Such an advanced international information system would:

1. Use software that gets the right questions to the right panelists who are globally distributed on different computer networks and allows for fast scan of global data banks (heterogeneous data bases) to assist panelists in their responses;

2. Facilitate the connection of research panelists for synchronous and asynchronous discussion, with electronic areas set aside for brainstorming that are separate from more rigorous deliberations. The less structured brainstorming information would also be stored with the author-panelist's permission at regular intervals or at logical breaks in the process;

3. Have the core information of the project on-line with a "Home Page" of menusand icons that panelists or the general public can select to get Millennium Project information.12 (Possibly the Project would conduct a competition for new designs of this Home Page.)Work in progress would be restricted only to those on the relevant panels. Completed work would be available to the public for educational purposes, advanced training, and to stimulate feedback to improve the project and its work. The kinds of information access via the Millennium Project Home Page would be: futures research methodology; long-range issues, questions, and forecasts by panels; quantitative models for assisting the judg-mental inputs of the panelists; future-oriented educational materials; panelists'
resumes (by permission of panelists); some related UNU research; full text of resources such as Future Survey, African Futures Bulletin, Pro Zukunft, and WFS and WFSF directories; and information on other systems with electronic pointers to information in those external systems (gateways to other data bases via software standards such as Gopher, Mosaic, and WAIS (common language searches of full text of information anywhere on the network); and software to receive and sort public feedback and send to panels for review. Special arrangements will be sought for access via the Millennium Project Home Page in updated time-series databases and major policy indicators such as the Human Development Index, environmental indicators, etc.;
 

4. Consist of a core information that could be called the "Future Studies Knowledge Space FSKS)." It would grow to become a multi-(dimensional, graphics-based knowledge visualization environment containing all material unique to the Millennium Project, and with capability of providing a gateway to external data/knowledge bases.13 (Initial conversations were held with the U.S. Institute of Medicine's Brain Mapping Project software manager. He is developing graphic front-end software to connect to external graphic and text-based data banks. The "main menu" is a three-dimensional graphic of the brain. One zooms into the part of the brain of interest and accesses files of data on physiology, pathology, molecular biology, etc of that area from geographically dispersed data bases. In a similar fashion, the Millennium Project information system could use the same or similar software with its own graphical interfaces to access data relevant to futures issues.)FSKS would be organized around a network of conceptual frames, graphically linked by relationships, and tied to points in a variety of models (for more detail see Phase I report's Appendix on information systems). The FSKS provides a logical "world" containing "places" at whichusers interested in a given topic can meet, and deposit and access information;

The Millennium Project would seek to experiment with the latest versions of collaboratories. A collaboratory can be thought of as a computer-mediated-communications and data retrieval and development system among a group of geographically-dispersed research colleagues.14 (During this feasibility study, Dr. Lawrence Rosenberg, Director of the U.S. National Science Foundation's Information Technology and Organizations Program, indicated interest in developing relations with the Millennium Project on the use of "collaboratories.")The Millennium Project's use of such a collaboratory could fundamentally change the practice of futures research by:

a. providing a medium of communication and basis for electronically organizing and cross-referencing a body of forecasts and assumptions, and a processfor continually renewing the state of futures methodology and content;

b. reducing geographical and institutional constraints to cooperation, making it "normal" to collaborate internationally;

c. facilitating methods like cross-impact analysis and futures wheels interactively at a distance;

d. decreasing the time between posing a concept or question and receiving international feedback;

e. reducing cost of information access and human cross-reference;

f. allowing more futurists to share in the state-of-thought; and

g. helping the "futures research community" to become more consciously self-aware; and hence, to evolve more coherently; and

5. Have an information manager to provide support, data base management, and facilitation of communications among panelists; develop the information system from its current operations to these more advanced capabilities; and foster the general public's access to Project information. The project anticipatesstaff growth, including interns, to match the workload.
 

Products of the information system would be packaged and delivered to participants and the pubic by a variety of media: professional articles, printed reports, computer diskettes, data entry in the information system, CD-ROM, conference presentations, video documentaries, audio tapes, and via the public press.

The state-of-the-art reviews of futurist methods and issues, initially produced during the second phase of the feasibility study, would become the basis for an annual state-of-the-art review. The annual methods report could provide the basis for setting standards in forecasting. These would contribute to the Millennium Project objective of continually improving the state of thinking about the future and making that thinking available through a variety of media for public feedback and advanced training. The scanning of issues could serve as the basis for an international registry of forecasts.

Finally, a combination of video, speech, and multimedia products of the Project could be delivered via Internet, ISDN, and other new international digital networks being planned for the next decade. These media could provide a link to the general public (at least that part of the public with computer access) and a means for them to experience the vast diversity of ideas and knowledge provided by the Millennium Project's panels. In addition, these reports will provide a basis for public feedback to improve institutional learning within the multi-fields of futures research and studies.

In the meantime, the Project communications medium will be flexible using airmail, fax, and email. Email is the cost-effective choice (see Appendix page 38 for communications cost/advantage), but should not prevent non-users from participating. If the communications is only for receiving and returning questionnaires, then airmail is reasonable, yet is not always delivered reliably and can take one month to or from some regions. However, once "live" or "near-live" communication among a group of geographically dispersed people becomes more available, then computer-mediated communication is the preferred management choice.

Institutionalization

he institutional setting for the first two phases of the feasibility study was the UNU's headquarters in Tokyo; the third phase was under the sponsorship of the UNU's World Institute of Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) headquartered in Helsinki. UNU/WIDER is the research and training center of the UNU that has been the most involved in the first two phases of the feasibility study. It has the largest endowment and strongest research base within the UNU system. It has also expressed interest in hosting the Project to the governing Council of UNU/WIDER. Hence, UNU/WIDER was the logical institutional home for the Project within the UNU system. However, due to financial and staffing constraints, the project is being coordinated by the American Counci for the United Nations University.

Although this report proposes that UNU/WIDER becomes the operational Project's institutional home, it is the nature of the Project to anticipate new organizational approaches. The American Council for the UNU, a non-profit organization that initiated the pre-feasibility study will continue to assist when non-UN functions are required. Its offices in Washington, D.C. gives the Project easy access to a vast set of information centers, graduate universities (including graduate students who intern with the AC/UNU), policy research centers, and a location with many future-oriented conferences visited by many leading thinkers. Organizations that participate more formally with the project can assume either geographic or subject responsibilities of the Project. A group of individuals and or institutions can be a "node" of the project. Since futures research is actively creating new forms of management and organization, and because new patterns of cyberspace like Internet are emerging so rapidly, it is reasonable that the Project will also evolve organizationally. In addition to UNU/WIDER (as institutional home, continuation of the African Futures 2025 work, and future issues of developing countries), the following organizational participants and functions are being explored:

Moscow, for forecasting and policy applications of complexity and chaos to social transition and sustainable development (the UNU Council Member from the Russia Academy of Science requested a MillenniumProject node for sustainable development and the Ministry of Science and Technology Policy of the Russian Federation has approved funds pending additional international participation);

Cairo, for future inter-relation of culture and media (in cooperation with Al-Azhar University and Al Ahram Press Institute);

Tokyo, for the future of telecommunications (studies of both applicationsfor the Millennium Project's information system as well as the future of telecommunications);

Paris, for methodology (in cooperation with CNAM, EU, ProFutures, and Futuribles).
 

Each organizational participant and/or node will have access to the entire Millennium Project (staff, information system, international panels, and the other nodes) in carrying out its specialized responsibility. This kind of evolution will make the project less dependent on any one individual or organization for support. One problem the Millennium Project should help solve is creating a permanent system to improve futures research on a cumulative basis. Each organizational participant or node would have specific functions around which self-organization would be encouraged. Each would have access to the total system without the need to maintain the total system, whose core functions would be supported from an endowment. While internal work among individuals and institutions within a node can use whatever language and software they chose, collaboration with the rest of the Project will require compatibility. This approach increases flexibility for funding, gives a more global presence, and could more effectively link project results with policy.

There are disadvantages to this form of institutional evolution. Working with several U.N. organizations proved managerially difficult during Phase II. However, if each node had its own area of responsibility, then management problems could be reduced, such as quality control (centers of excellence with international peer evaluation) and designation of projects to participating institutions and nodes.

The Project coordi-nation office is located at the AC/UNU and manages the logistics of the look-out panels, scanning and scenario work by Project staff, and the research panels that conduct the indepth futures research.

The Project's funding and financial institutionalization will be discussed in Financial Considerations page 21.

Expected Outcomes 
of the Project

By the year 2000 the Millennium Project is expected to have created a reliable system that continuously updates and contributes to global thinking about the future, and makes that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in public policy, advanced training, and public education. It will utilize an international information system that encourages feedback so that the Project continually evolves more intelligently.

As a result, studies of the future are expected to be seen as more coherent and useful in policy analysis and in illuminating prospects for the future. This will increase the awareness that the future can be shaped in the interests of society through thoughtful policies.

More specific outcomes of the project include:

 

Financial Considerations

Just as different parts of the feasibility study are funded by different organizations, it is anticipated that the Millennium Project will have multiple donors. Each donor will be interested in unique elements and studies of the Project. The long-range financial objective is to have the project endowed with approximately $US 30 million. It is expected, however that the initial funding will be derived from operating and project specific sponsorship.

The estimates below are drawn from conversations with staff of leading think tanks, estimates made in the UNU feasibility study for a proposed research and training institute on space and society, the feasibility study Phase I Delphi on the process of organizing the project, and from the experience of managing the work of all three phases of the feasibility study. Estimating the costs of the Millennium Project involves several crucial assumptions. These factors and estimating bases are listed below:

Look-Out Panels (for issues identification)

Maximum number of simultaneous panels in operation: 4 (maximum of 8 per year)
Average number of panelists per panel 150-200. Total of 750 panelists at high point at any given time in all activities
Number of people per advisory committee/issue or study: 12
Honoraria for advisory panel members: $1,500 15 (All costs are in U.S. Dollars. )
Telecommunications and postage for a panel's communications: $1000
Compensation of panelists: A range of non-financial compensation has been discussed previously. For initial budgetary discussion, we estimate an average cost of $35,000 per Look-Out Panel.

Research Panels (for more detailed or focused futures research)

Maximum number of simultaneous research panels in operation at one time: 4 (maximum of 8 per year)
Maximum number of panelists per research panel: 100.
Number of people per advisory committee/issue or study: 9
Honoraria for advisory panel members: $1,500
Telecommunications and postage for a panel's communications: $2000
Compensation of panelists: Although a range of non-financial compensation has been discussed previously, and many (especially UN personnel) cannot receive financial compensation as this would be considered part of their normal work, each research panel is still estimated to cost between$50,000 and $150,000 for honoraria since they are more time-consuming than initial Look-Out or issues panels.
For initial budgetary discussion, we estimate the cost to range from of $65,500 to $165,000 per research panel.

Information System

If the Millennium Project Information System resides in the UNU/WIDER's headquarters' computer, which becomes an Internet, ISDN, or T1-3 linked server, then there may be no mainframe costs specifically for the project. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and George Washington University have offered to host parts or all of the Project's information system. Hence, computer costs below assume desktop and portable systems only. Most of these will be used to provide access for panelists and the steering committees. Software, design, and training will focus both on upgrading Millennium Project staff and panelists capabilities. Additional computer consulting will be needed to improve computer server's software, upgrade the system to that of a collaboratory, and improve professional and public access to the information system for public education, advanced training, and feedback.

Initially, there will be substantial needs for Information System Design Consultants. The project should allow for $70,000 for the first year and gradually decrease this over several years, as the systems become operational and training requirements decrease. Similarly, staff and panelists' computers, software, and training costs will be high initially ($70,000), and lower later ($15,000). Allowance should also be made for $15-25,000 annually for commissioned studies that may be required.

Communications Equipment and Training for Participants in Developing Countries with Less Access

Although developing countries are making very rapid progress in telecom-munications and computer applications, special efforts will be required to insure a range of participation in these regions. Purchase of computers, software, training, and additional funds for long-distance access has to be considered. This could average $50-75,000 per year. It is also a likely category for "in kind" corporate contributions.

Full-Time Fellows and Part-time Graduate Interns

Fellows will not only conduct much of the regular work of the Millennium Project, they will be chosen to address a lack of capacity in needy regions of the world. The fellows would most likely be doctoral candidates, but post-doctoral fellowships should also be considered. An amount of $25,000 per fellow (stipend, living expenses, educational and related travel expenses) is a normal element of a UNU program. We estimate that two to three fellows would work with the Project per year. These costs could also be addressed through UNDP/African Futures and its cooperation with the African Development Bank.

The feasibility study has attracted part-time graduate student volunteers via the American Council/UNU to help with research and data entry. This has been very helpful, but some stipends would make for more equitable relationships. We estimate that $750 per month would be appropriate for half-time internship, with an average of five interns per semester (three semesters per year). The Project should also be flexible enough to accept full-time internships as well.16 (16 Some institutions like the Program for the Study of the Future, University of Houston/Clearlake which offers a masters degree in future studies, or the Program for Strategic and Prospective Studies, Conservatoire National d'Arts et Metiersin Paris, which offers a doctors degree in future studies would more likely send graduate students on a full-time basis. )

Project Personnel

Just as the information system evolves from a basic capacity to an international state-of-the-art collaboratory, so too the Project staff is expected to begin small and grow. Once fully staffed, the annual costs for a project director or coordinator, deputy director, academic staff, information systems manager, administrator, bookkeeper, and secretaries are estimated at $400,000 plus benefits at 30%. Pending institutional arrangements with the AC/UNU and other organizations, these costs could be reduced by personnel sharing. However, to insure that the Millennium Project develops a globally significant capacity it will need a leading futurist or scholar in each of the major domains (see page 11 and Appendix on Project Domains). Leading world experts want to collaborate with staff of similar qualifications. To attract such talent for the academic staff and fellows will require a larger budget. As the Project proves its value, it will attract the funds and institutional arrangements necessary for such talent.

Other Costs

Annual costs for publications, computer access, and educational materials for scanning and training functions will be approximately $20-30,000. Editing and translation costs would grow from $10,000 to $50,000 over the next three to five years. We expect telecommunications charges to remain the same.17 (The until cost per communication will go down even though usage will increase over the years.)Postage and express mail should be slightly under $10,000 but grow to $20,000 annually over the next three to five years. Pending distribution arrangements with other organizations, the printing, diskettes, and CD ROM costs may vary from $25,000 to $150,000 annually. Travel and related expenses are estimated to vary between $30-60,000 per year. Allowing for a contingency of 5% and an AC/UNU overhead of 13%, the annual costs of the Project in when fully funded would be $1-2 million per year.
 

Budget Estimates in US$ Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Look-Out Panels 35,000 70,000 140,000
Research Panels 250,000 300,000 400,000
Info. System Consultation 70,000 60,000 50,000
Hardware/Software/Training 70,000 50,000 25,000
Commissioned Studies 15,000 20,000 25,000
LDC Equipment Upgrades 50,000 75,000 50,000
Fellows & Interns 34,000 52,000 102,000
Project Personnel 150,000 300,000 400,000
Benefits @ 30% 45,000 90,000 120,000
Telecom/Postage/Expenses 32,000 32,000 32,000
Printing & Disks 25,000 25,000 25,000
Editing & Translation 10,000 25,000 50,000
Travel & Related Costs 30,000 45,000 60,000
Publications & Education 20,000 25,000 30,000
Sub-Total 836,000 1,169,000 1,509,000
Contingency @ 5% 42,000 58,000 75,000
Overhead @ 14% 123,000 172,000 222,000
Total 1,001,000 1,399,000 1,802,000
 

Potential Income Sources

The long-range financial objective is to endow the project within the United Nations University system of research and training institutions. This would provide the financial support to guarantee the Project's permanent capacity to improve the quality of futures-related policy research and studies. In the meantime, United Nations organizations, Governments, Corporations, and Private Foundations will be approached for both bridging funds to develop the endowment, as well as for general support funds to launch the Project. Grants and contracts will be sought for research that is both of value to the donor and necessary for the mission of the Project. The agreement with UNDP to prepare a series of papers on futures methodology and issues important to the future of Africa fit this criteria and is a good example of this approach.

The Ministry of Science and Technology Policy of the Russian Federation will support some of the Millennium Project's costs to conduct a study of "Forecasting & Policy Applications of Research in Complexity, Chaos, and Self-organization for Social Transformation: A Case Study of Russia." This study promises to be a landmark in both advancing futures research methodology as well as in policy issues of social disorder. Its global impact fulfills the issues selection criteria listed previously.

Similarly, initial discussions have been held with the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States for the introduction of a look-out panel on environmental issues and advance the concept of such panels with other departments of the U.S. Government. With the circulation of this report, other offers are expected.

There are a variety of related projects and organizations which provide futureoriented services and products. During the three year feasibility study, the products and services of the following organizations were sampled, and in most cases their principals interviewed: African Futures of the United Nations Development Program; 2050 Project of the World Resources Institute; Future Survey, Prep-21, and World 2000 Projects of the World Future Society; Clearing-House for Applied Futures; Future Generations Foundation; Millennium Institute; Project Global 2000 of the Global Education Associates; Global Think Tank Network of the National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA), International Institute of Forecasters, Futuribles; Profutures; World Future Studies Federation; International Association for Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions; Encyclopedia of the Future of Macmillan Publishing Company; and FUTURESCO of UNESCO. Our policy is to complement quality products and services where possible and
to provide more unique or improved products and services.
 

The feasibility study has identified the following sources of income:

Sales of reports such as the annual state-of-the-future, state-of-futures methodology, and special scanning reports in such media as print, computer diskettes, video, and CD ROMs. Information about the availability of these products can be made via Internet and could be marketed through other futurist organizations.

Initial Priorities

The core activities listed in Section 1 are the Project's priorities and are accounted for in the estimated budget. As additional funds are raised, the special activities listed in the same section can be added. However, the Project can begin small with the following initial priorities:

Establish the global issues look-out panel and produce its first state-of-the-future report(with initial support from the Ford Motor Company);

Appendix
Overview, Results, and Utilization 
of the Feasibility Study

Conclusions in this report were drawn from three years of interviews, correspondence, and Delphi19 (This technique is explained briefly in the appendix of the Phase I report of the feasibility study and more fully in the phase II futures method report Delphi, by Theodore J. Gordon.) inquiries dealing with the process of organizing the Millennium Project. Conclusions were also drawn from the lessons learned in applying suggestions from these sources in forecasting global population and environmental issues, assessing issues associated with developments of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, and reviewing futures research methodology. Experience working with United Nations organizations, private research organizations, universities, associations, and corporations also contributed to conclusions about methods of institutionalization.

The United Nations University, an autonomous organ of the U.N., which can focus intellectual resources on world problems as a global, decentralized, non-degree granting, post-graduate research institution has examined the feasibility of the Millennium Project through its World Institute for Development Economics Research. The Millennium Project is proposed to assist in organizing futures research, to update and improve continuously humanity's thinking about the future, and to make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in public policy making, advanced training, and public education. The feasibility study had three phases.

Phase I began in November 1992 with support from the U.S. EPA and with the collaboration of the Smithsonian Institution and the Futures Group to identify and link futurists, scholars, and institutions around the world to explore the feasibility of creating an international information system to generate and store forecasts, key questions, lessons from history, potential futures research agendas, and other data banks and networks. This undertaking was achieved via a two-round Delphi on the process of organizing the project and a two-round Delphi on population and environment. The Phase I report is available via Internet gopher: futures.wic.epa.gov, and as summaries published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, and in Futures Research Quarterly. The population and environment Delphi was published in the forthcoming International Rights and Responsibilities for the Future (Greenwood Press, 1996).

Phase II began in August 1993 with support from the UNDP/African Futures Project to produce a set of papers and computer diskettes on futures methods and issues facing Sub-Saharan African countries via an environmental scanning system. The methodology series provided information for subsequent decisions on methods to be used during the project, formed the basis for a periodic review and evaluation of futures methods, and was published as a book, Frontiers in Futures Studies: A Handbook on Methods and Techniques. The series included:

1. Introduction & Overview
2. Environmental Scanning
3. Participatory Methods
4. Structural Analysis
5. Delphi
6. Systems and Modeling
7. Decision Modeling
8. Scenario Construction
9. Trend Impact Analysis
10. Cross Impact Analysis
11. Technological Sequence Analysis
12. Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis
13. Statistical Modeling
14. Simulation-Gaming
15. Futures Wheel
16. Normative Forecasting
17. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Intuition
18. Methodological Frontiers and Integration

These reports are used by UNDP in training national long-term prospective study teams in Africa and in some universities that teach futures research and are available via Internet gopher: futures.wic.epa.gov.

Producing a series of papers on issues important to the future of Sub-Saharan Africa shaped recommendations for similar and larger scale studies during the full Millennium Project. The series was published as six books, each titled Africa in the Year 2025 with subtitles:

1. Technological Capacity
2. International Economic Policy and International Trade
3. Agriculture and Food Security Trends
4. Life Support and Sustainable Development
5. Population, Education, and Human Welfare
6. Peace, Governance, and Culture

These reports were written by African and other scholars and experts in the substantive topics and are being used by UNDP to provide background for national, long-term prospective study teams' research in Africa. In addition, the Millennium Project Feasibility Study's managing editors of these reports along with thirty other African futurists and scholars, were brought together at the United Nations Secretariat for a five day long-range strategy session: African Futures 2025: Issues Integration and Synthesis Seminar, 11-15 July 1994. The meeting was extremely productive. The results of this work are available from UNDP/African Futures, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire. The sessions were also video taped.

Phase III began in September 1994 with support from UNESCO to prepare and distribute the final feasibility report. An initial draft of this report was sent to the feasibility study participants. A questionnaire was included that asked for their feedback on the report and the study in general. Their feedback was used to rewrite this draft and shape the Project's priorities.
 
 
 
 

Since the Millennium Project is ambitious, it required a wide-ranging and unique feasibility study. Feasibility was tested in a number of ways over a three-year period. One approach involved collecting judgements from futurists and scholars from 34 countries on how to organize the Millennium Project. They were asked how it would be possible to create a system to help improve humanity's thinking about the future, and make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in policy making, advanced training, public education, and systematic feedback. These judgements were fed back to the respondents for further comment. The resulting pattern was used to address the leading issues identified during this process: population and environment.

A second approach, mentioned previously, created long-range forecasting methods and issues reports, as well as leading to a one-week strategy meeting at the secretariat of the UN on the future of Africa. Funded by UNDP/African Futures, the issues focus for this second phase became Africa. Reports were written by experts, peer reviewed, and used as background for the African Futures 2025 meeting at the UN. An integration of what worked the best from these two approaches forms much of the focus of the research procedures section.

A third technique, used during both the first and second phases of the feasibility study, followed the more conventional approach of interviewing organizational representatives about the Project's feasibility. In addition, the responses were collected from readers of professional journals (e.g. Technological Forecasting and Social Change and Futures Research Quarterly) which published the results of the first phase of the feasibility study. A broad range of futurists were interviewed at the World Future Studies Federation conference in Turku, Finland; the European Community's Joint Research Center's Futures and Prospective Studies review conference in Ispra, Italy; World Future Society Conferences in Washington and Boston; the Future Creating Conference in Awaji, Japan; and the Future Generations Conference in Kyoto. More focused organizational interviews were conducted at the World Health Organization in Geneva, UNU/WIDER in Helsinki, UNESCO and the Conservatoire National d'Arts et Metiers in Paris, UNU/INTECH in Maastricht, and a series of think tanks in Tokyo (Mitsubishi Research Institute, Dentsu Research Institute for Human Studies, Technova, Nomura Research Institute, the Global Infrastructure Fund of Japan, and the Institute for Future Technology).

A planning committee reviewed each major step of the feasibility study, including drafts of this document. It included:

Joseph F. Coates, President, Coates and Jarratt, Inc.
Jerome C. Glenn, Coord., Millennium Project Feasibility Study
Theodore J. Gordon, Dir., Millennium Project Feasibility Study
Mary Ellen Lane, Council on American Overseas Research Centers
Michael Marien, Editor, Future Survey
William McNeill, Professor of History, University of Chicago
Ronald Morse, President, Annapolis International
George Robinson (Phase III), Neil Kotler (Phase I & II), Smithsonian Institution
Siddig Salih, Senior Academic Officer, UNU/WIDER (Phase III)
Mihaly Simai, Director, UNU/WIDER (Phase III)
Robert Smith, Chairman and CEO, The Futures Group

Donor Representatives:
Phase I: David Rejeski, Futures Unit, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Phase II: Jose Brito, UNDP/African Futures
Phase III: Federico Mayor, Director-General, UNESCO

Since the project was initiated by the American Council for the United Nations University, The Smithsonian Institution, and The Futures Group, all Washington-based organizations, to save costs, the feasibility study steering committee had more members from that area than will be the case for the operational Project. A broader cross-section of futurists and scholars will be sought to insure multi-cultural epistemological dimensions in the Project.
 

UTILIZATION OF THE Feasibility STUDY
Although the full range of utilization of the products of the feasibility study cannot be known at this writing, since most Phase II reports are in line to be printed at this time, some applications can be summarized that were referred to in other places of the text:

Chronology of the 
Millenium Project Feasibility Study

1988 Millennium Project internal memorandum at The Futures Group later published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

1988 The Futures Group approaches American Council/United Nations University with the concept.

1989 Discussions with UNU and The Futures Group and addition of the Smithsonian Institution.

1990 Pre-feasibility study by the American Council/UNU produces UNU feasibility study proposal in collaboration with The Smithsonian Institution and The Futures Group.

1991 UNU Feasibility Study proposal accepted for Phase I funding by U.S. EPA.

1992 Phase I began in November to identify and link futurists around the world via Internet, fax, and air mail.

1993 Phase I report addresses design issues for the project and demonstration of applications for future population and environmental policy. Report available on Internet gopher futures.wic.epa.gov.


Barry Steer (U.K.)
Florida. International Univ
Boca Raton, FL. U.S.

Tony Stevenson
World Future Studies Federation
Brisbane, Australia

Takahiro Suzuki
Sasakawa Peace Foundation
Tokyo, Japan

Allen Tough, Prof.
Univ. of Toronto
Toronto, Canada

Edward Tower, Prof.
Duke University
Durham, NC. U.S.

Juha I. Uitto
United Nations University
Tokyo, Japan

Andre Van Dam
Futurist Consultant
Martinex, Argentina

Matti Vanhanen
Member of Parliament
Helsinki, Finland

Tatu Vanhanen, Prof.
University of Helsinki
Helsinki, Finland

Nicolas Vernier (France)
World Bank
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Hassan Virji (Tanzania)
International START
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Rusong Wang, Chairman
Urban Systems Ecology Beijing, P.R. China

Xinhau Wang (P.R. China)
Technology Institute
Washington D.C. U.S.

Eberhard Weber
California State Univ. Fresno
Fresno, CA. U.S.

Paul Werbos
National Science Foundation
Arlington, VA U.S.

Ernst von Weizsacker
Wuppertal Institute
Wuppertal, Germany

Norio Yamamoto, Dir.
Global Infrastructure Fund and Mitsubishi Research Institute
Tokyo, Japan

Yutaka Yamamoto
Institutth experts. We have little money for foreign travel and are likely to have even less. Some sort of arrangement whereby we could consult with Mill EPA; UNDP; UNESCO; and
Acacia Group, Inc. (Inkind contributions)

EXPRESSING INTEREST IN MORE FORMAL RELATIONS:
Al Arham Press Institute
Al-Azhar University, Egypt
Applied Future Studies Clearing-House
Czech Future Studies Project
Min. of Science & Tech. Policy, Russia
Clearinghouse on Applied Futures, Germany
Coates & Jarrett, Inc., Washington
George Washington University
INFODEC, Inc. Montevideo, Uruguay
International Institute of Forecasters
OECD, Paris
Japan Future Society
Marco-Coordinating Society, P.R. China
Global Infrastructure Fund of Japan
National Research Council, Iran
Cons'toire Nat. Arts/Metiers, France
Union of International Associations
Rajiv Gandhi Foundation, India
World Future Studies Federation
World Future Society

INSTITUTIONS PARTICIPATING IN THE FEASIBILITY STUDY:
African Futures, UNDP, Abidjan
Dentsu Institute of Human Studies, Tokyo
Institute for Alternative Futures
Institute of New Technologies, UNU
Institute for Future Technology, Tokyo
Bionomics Institute, San Rafael
Institute for Global Ethics, Camden, Maine
Institute for the 21st Century Studies, Arlington
UNU/WIDER
Pathways, Inc., San Francisco
Systems Ecology, P.R. China
TECHNOVA, Inc. Tokyo
Thinking Machines, Inc. WAIS
World Health Organization, Geneva
UNESCO, UNFPA, FAO, UNEP
WorldWatch Institute

INSTITUTIONS EXPRESSING INTEREST BUT NO FORMAL CORRESPONDANCE:
Mitsubishi Research Institute
National Science Foundation, U.S.
World Bank, Washington
World Resources Institute, Washington
International Council of Scientific Unions, Paris
CIDAC, Mexico City
Chinese Society for Future Studies, Beijing
International START

SAMPLE OF INSTITUTIONS WITH INDIVIDUALS PARTICIPATING IN THEIR OWN RIGHT:
Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo
Al-Azhar University, Cairo
Russian, Hungarian, Japanese Acad's of Science
Institute of Applied Econology, P.R. China
Palacky University, Czech Rep.
Parliament of Finland
University of Maryland
University of Massachusetts
University of Houston/ClearLake
NASA, NAS, USAID, USDA, OTA
Institute for Policy Science, Tokyo
World Conservation Union, Switzerland
Wuppertal Institute, Germany
University of Buenos Aires, Argentina
Yale Univ. and Wellesley College, Wellesley
IBM, Xerox, Lotus, Hughes STX, Inc.
University of New Hampshire, Durhan
Pontifical Gregorian Univerisity, Italy
Carnegie Commission, Washington
Institute for Applied Energy, Tokyo
Georgetown University, Washington
European Institute for Public Administration
Forecasting International, Arlington
University of Southern California
Institute for the Future, Menlo Park
FutureLetter, Oshawa, Canada
Futurescan International, Ottawa
Institute Sci. Tech. Info. of China, Beijing
Anhui Academy of Soc. Science, P.R. China
International Futures Library, Salzburg
Res. Inst. Telecom Policies & Economics, Tokyo
OISE - University of Toronto, Canada
University Autonoma de Guadalajara, Mexico
Nature Conservancy, Edinburgh, Scotland
Japan Institute for International Affairs

Value of the Project to Others

The international panel of futurists and scholars who participated in Phases I and/or II were asked to identify how the project would be of value to them. The following is a distillation of those responses from those individuals.
 

"... My organization finds that more and more of its assessment projects have an international dimension, but the analytical staff lacks systematic means of making and maintaining contacts with experts. We have little money for foreign travel and are likely to have even less. Some sort of arrangement whereby we could consult with Millennium Project might be possible ... We can use the Millennium Project's abilityto quickly collect a range of international judgements from
a multi-disciplinary group of advanced thinkers ... We are a global network that is proud of participating in the most inspiring and challenging intellectual project ever conceived ... To have a continuously evolving body of research, knowledge and wisdom to use in my research would be invaluable ... Improved access to individuals, institutions, and research relevant to the long-term future ... Supply a planning context for our long-term R&D ... Information from the integration of international views across disciplinary lines ... Access to the international information system ... Improvement of the quality of futures research in general, which in turn improves individual work ... Example of global cooperation to counter conflict ... Intellectual/global network to extend my own network ...
 

"... The project will provide worldwide information for my country's early warning research ... Being a research department, we will improve our thinking about the future in a global manner ... By accumulating our efforts and the efforts of other futurists all over the world ... It is possible that some of the issue-based information could be of use to our project ... Provide a support foundation for my thinking and writing and teaching ... I think you will produce a definitive summary of the state-of-the-art in future studies and analysis of key issues. This would be valuable in various fields ... The intentional diversity of Millennium Project participants and their "raw" contributions. These diverse views and other contributions serve as a relevance check of work in progress and the "fit" of that work within the greater scheme of things as reflected in the issues addressed under the Millennium Project ... Support of future-oriented activities in my country ... Association with the Project would give us a living laboratory for the continual cultivation of new generations of proactive agent based collaboration computer software tools ... If the output was credible and compelling, this project could be a major planning input ...
 

"... By providing a global context in which our work on EU developments can be set ... A clearinghouse of methodology and experience ... Future research methodology papers may be used by my government for policy-making decisions ... More systematic contacts with other futurists might be of benefit ... At a minimum, our government department might benefit from a Millennium Project directory of resource people ... The project will help my firm in getting "total
quality" in involved in participating in forum. We might also benefit from access to other researchers who might have people who might test some assumptions or methods ... The project would make readily available to my organization data, information and analyses regarding non-North American nations, especially developing countries, that are essentially unavailable to us now and which our present clientele US firms, trade associations, and state/local governments, would find extremely valuable for their planning, especially with respect to global markets and international operations ... Serve as an early warning system on global changes/developments for our project and national teams in Africa ... Develop new institutional forces to handle future problems ...
 

"... The project can help in solving problems pertaining to current misconceptions and miscommunications that have already created about 80 ethnic and religious conflicts around the globe and developed a lot of "fundamentalists" groups and generated zero-sum game orientations by the players of these conflicts. If such orientations are to remain without scientific and cooperative efforts within the context of a global project such as the Millennium Project, our future would remain in real danger ... The project will provide the interdisciplinary methodology for our researchers on social-economic-natural complex ecosystems ... Become more aware of different points of view from mine ... Sharpening the focus, enhancing the content and the scope of work in progress by access to a building inventory of data and the identification of a global mind set ... Possibly, provide useful thought pieces for our senior bureaucrats on the political level ... Better connection of our futurists with foreign partners and their better integration into futurological and interdisciplinary activities ... We are contemplating collaborative degree/certificate granting programs with UN for which project materials would provide material ...

"... A laboratory for exploring ideas ... Underpinning of our program concerned with development of the problem understanding science and technology ... Enriching the futuristic knowledge everywhere ... Draw to my attention trends and ideas that I might otherwise have overlooked ... The area of advanced training for top executives in the public sector as well as CEO in the private sector will be enhanced by the contribution of the project ... It will give a solid ground for
professional futurisitc work and cooperation ... Help bring most effective methodologies to bear on key issues for specific segments of society/business ... Link me with a colleagueal circle in which I could be creative and grow intellectually ... Access to the project's output, plus its global network of scholars and experts would substantially expand our organization's capacity/propensity to market our services internationally, and to respond to foreign invitations for contract ... A place for the graduates of our Masters of Science program in studies of the future to intern ... Make possible pairing of my college with sister colleges in the less developed world for possible real and virtual exchange of faculty and students and collaborative development projects ... The project will provide the intuitive instruments for decision support, advanced training and public education ... Stimulate new inter-industry contacts and cooperative arrangements ... Facilitate creation of a new state of concepts arising out of group interaction among participants which will provide the apperceptive mass for new creative learning and thinking ...

"... The Millennium Project will extend my own intellectual/ global network ... It will provide an excellent opportunity to network with individuals and organizations engaged in futures research and environmental scanning ... Building structural links between public and private institutions with futures research communities ... We will have at our disposal policy options and their consequences ... By strengthening the impact of futuristic vision on decisions ... Help encourage the development of important new ideas and new approaches to curriculum content ... We will take advantage of a range of methodologies provided by the Millennium project ... OTA analysts might also benefit from intellectually and professionally from participating directly in and contributing to Millennium Project panels ...
 

" ... The potential for access to lists of people and organizations who before or now have indicated interest in global issues, whether they have been selected to participate in various studies or not. They "may" be made aware of work in progress in order to consider their potential interest in that work ... Access to new methods and methodologies. Can be used in educational process at my University ... The project could serve as input for issues which cut across national boundaries ... To be able to "talk" with other researchers who are working on similar issues would help both of us learn more and faster ... The project's very existence, the interjection of its outputs into the global data base and the inventory of futures research tools, and its capacity to mobilize expertise to explore the future will all serve to significantly improve the quality of our-in-house benchmarking and modeling."

Domains of the Project

Creating domains within futures research and studies has always been problematic. Nevertheless, the creation of domains provides structure for information systems, criteria to judge that the Project is considering a broad range of issues necessary in futures research, and against which to match human, institutional, and Internet resources.
 

DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN RESOURCES includes population dynamics, education, training, health, welfare, human rights, culture, civilization, and the future human being. There is much evidence that the combination of an expanding population, a diminishing rate of new agricultural production, and a depleted stock of environmental resources and quality, will pose enormous problems for the quality and conditions of life. The education and organization of human capital is critical to countering this problem. The future distribution of population is an equally important consideration. For example, certain nations will experience intolerable overpopulation and density while other nations will be relatively underpopulated. A consequence will be a continuing and perhaps greatly expanded movement of peoples across national borders and across regions.
 

TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY includes the full range of technology from nanotechnology, biotechnology, genetic engineering, bionics, virtual reality, materials science, robotics, artificial intelligence and life, to space manufacturing, migration and search for extraterrestrial life. How will these technologies interrelate to create new breakthroughs? How will these interact with the trends and plausible future conditions in the other domains of the Millennium Project? Major portions of humanity are alienated from advanced technological utilization due to issues of sophistication, philosophy, and cost. What must be understood by technology policy makers and the public to make appropriate investment and choice?
 

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY includes interactions with the natural environment from greenhouse effect, ozone hole, resource depletion, pollution, and the range of species' survival to mega projects in terra-engineering and artificial environments. Numerous specific and localized forecasts of environmental and climactic transformation and deterioration and the effects on all manner of plant and animal species have been undertaken. These often are narrow-gauged and unrelated to other aspects of environmental changes, e.g., analysis of the decline and loss of species and the consequences. Further, while much has been written about trade-offs between environmental conservation and economic needs, there is a need for better integration of trends, conditions, and alternative futures. There is little argument that these changes are substantially threatening to vast ecological systems and forms of life.
 

GOVERNANCE AND CONFLICT includes examinations of a range of ethnic, religious, national, regional conflicts; terrorism; and futuristic forms of information warfare, and what forms of governance can prevent them or reduce their destruction. It also includes new speculation about governance modeling are in their infancy. The Project has developed relations with the International Institute of Forecasting, World Future Studies Federation, World Future Society, Profutures, and others who welcome the Project's role in bringing together themany approaches to identify and improve the state-of-the art.
 

DISSEMINATION, ADVANCED TRAINING, AND PUBLIC EDUCATION, although not a domain in a same sense as the above, the feasibility study found that if futures research is to be taken into account in the policy process, the dissemination, training, and education must be taken into account in the beginning of research planning and be consident are likely to become more heterogeneous and fluid as power devolves. There is increasing pressure for cooperative management of resources, joint development of new technology, health challenges, international legal regimes, space exploration, sea-bed mining, the role of government and industry, education and so forth. The challenge for future strategists will be daunting.
 

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, POLICY AND WEALTH will consider new definitions of wealth, employment, sustainable/evolutionary development, and new modes of international trade; shifting patterns of international cooperation and competition (including globalization of corporations, manufacturing and marketing); growing interdependence of national economies; the more rapid diffusion of the effects of localized economic shocks and macroeconomic policy shifts pose tremendous challenges for policymakers. Issues include the forms of government support for national competitiveness, policymaking by governments in relation to global corporate strategies, management of economic disequilibrium between countries, human costs of rapid economic adjustment, and new forms (and institutions) for harmonization of macroeconomic policies. To what degree is there consensus about the appropriate roles of governments, firms, and international institutions in the economic development process, and what constitutes development? What are the options for dealing with those national economies that prove unable to achieve respectable growth rates (for reasons of natural endowment, political instability, or developmental bottlenecks).
 

While the domains mentioned above can be examined, cross-impacted, and integrated with varying degrees of confidence, new policy issues will be created by global forces ... working ... independently of policymakers. It is the purpose of the Millennium Project to anticipate these forces for change, to gain a fuller understanding of the pressures these changes will impose on existing policies and institutions, and to suggest some of the policy solutions that are likely to emerge. To do this a sense of the general directions and whole futures needs to be considered.
 

INTEGRATION AND WHOLE FUTURES takes forecasts in the previous domains and those "whole bodied" visions of the future, and seeks to cross-impact their elements to find synthesis and integration to show a range of the future civilizations-as-a-whole, rather than individual parts as in the other domains. Futurists worldwide know this general or "big picture" research is the most important work in examining the possible and desirable future, yet it is usually cast aside for the pressures of more narrow interests and specialized domains.
 

FUTURES RESEARCH METHODOLOGY has not been satisfactorily evaluated in any systematic and international fashion. An initial undertaking during this feasibility study addressed a series of methods and techniques with an introduction to the issues in methodology and a concluding section on the integration and frontiers. This work forms the foundation upon which periodic improvements can be made as part of the core of the Millennium Project. New uses of old methods are evolving rapidly around the world and com-pletely new approaches such as adoptive agent modeling are in their infancy. The Project has developed relations with the International Institute of Forecasting, World Future Studies Federation, World Future Society, Profutures, and others who welcome the Project's role in bringing together themany approaches to identify and improve the state-of-the art.
 

DISSEMINATION, ADVANCED TRAINING, AND PUBLIC EDUCATION, although not a domain in a same sense as the above, the feasibility study found that if futures research is to be taken into account in the policy process, the dissemination, training, and education must be taken into account in the beginning of research planning and be considered a concurrent activity with the research. During the feasibility study, work was disseminated and used in training and education through print, video, and Internet media.

Expected Results of the Project

By the year 2000 the Millennium Project is expected to have beomce a reliable system that continuously updates and improves humanity's thinking about the future, and makes that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in public policy, advanced training, public education, aided by an information system that en-courages feedback on the Project's work.
 

More specifically it is expected to have:

1. Linked futurists, related scholars, other creative thinkers, and institutions around the world;
2. Provided a continuous system for identifying and tracking important thinking on key world issues and promoted discussion about these issues and their potential solution;
3. Improved scholarly and mutidisciplinary integral approaches in future studies and forecasts;
4. Created an international information system of forecasts, key questions, issues, lessons from history, and potential futures research agendas, that allowed for feedback to improve the state of research and thought in these areas;
5. Evaluated futures research methodology and explored the potential for setting standards;
6. Forecasted important technological, social, and scientific achievements, and their likely effects on the future human condition;
7. Integrated others' forecasts - including a full range from subjectively normative to quantitatively analytic;
8. Increased the awareness of the future and its promise, including the view that the future could be shaped in the interests of society through thoughtful policies;
9. Developed a set of educational materials useful at all levels, dealing with the history of achievement of the last century and social issues of the next century, critical choices, and policy options that relate to these issues, and other future-related topics;
10. Offered advanced training in futures research, future studies, integrative thinking, and long-range issues; and
11. Left a legacy to the people of the next century and millennium of what was thought about the future and how we, at the turn of the century and the millennium had hoped it would evolve.

The international panel of 200 futurists and scholars from 50 countries who participated in Phases I and/or II of the feasibility study were asked to identify what were the most significant problems they believed the Project could solve. The following is a distillation of those responses.
 

"The Millennium Project could be a more democratic counterpoint to elitist think tanks ... likely to improve communication among various scholars and interested agencies ... improve credibility of the methodologies used by creating communities of discourse that share the language of those methodologies ... provide depth and "big picture thinking" in futures writing ... provide warning of trouble ahead and future opportunities ... improve conceptual, political, and spiritual approach to a unified global system, which can resolve conflicts ... it could create formal or informal collaborative evaluation efforts like population control strategies, environmental issues or epidemiological risks ... will improve access to new aspects of global reality, new paradigms of knowledge and thinking, systematic analysis, interdisciplinary approaches, futures research and policy oriented research ...
 

"... The benefit of the Millennium Project is that it is not problem-specific but process-specific. It is therefore not inherently limited and should thus be able to accept practically any problem as an issue study which relies upon assessments of the future ... the project can help reprogramming school curricula at all levels ... start accumulation of future field of knowledge, a necessary base of any scientific-like discipline ... helping to make it easier for people to find information, methods, and contacts to assist them in studying and planning for future development ... give greater priority for more effective learning ... the project could become a world-wide think-tank which can provide policy advice on key global issues such as governance, environmental issues, etc. Because of its global nature information on "successful projects" around the globe can be discussed, evaluated to see how other parts of the world may benefit ... creation of an international information system for forecasts ... it will resolve duplication of effort and a waste of resources on the same issues ... help build on the research and ideas of others ... guidance for legislators and corporations ... provide a continuous system of assessment of the significant issues and opportunities of the future ... discover, describe, explain, evaluate and propose policies and strategies to solve global problems ... clarify trends, identify actors and explain forces that constitute the "world problematique"...
 

" ... A significant contribution may be made to design a self-initiated study on critical issues as seen from the perspective of panelists from throughout the world and to then seek support to carry out that study ... create a central, comprehensive source of early warning signals, which alerts to challenges and problems where too little effort is being exerted to hold the line or improve conditions ... encourage a more responsible approach to political leadership and decision-making ... assist in the creation of new institutional forum and reworking arrangement within the UN system ... cultivate the mechanism and methodology for interdisciplinary coherence of the past achievements and lessons, and future chances and risks ... reduce the issue of identity crises. Participants will feel that they are part of the celebrated "global village" ... be an instrument of tremendous capacity in the reengineering of the United Nations System, moving from inter-national organizations to global institutions with real although limited powers. Global problems and global possibilities should be treated through global thinking, global policies, global strategies and global responsibilities ...
 

"... Inspire people ... it can help to identify global as well as regional development trends and identify probable and undesirable tendencies in different regions ... the existence of an active, collaborative international community of scientists, scholars and professionals representing all races, sects and ideologies will be crucial to humankind's continued progress in the face of the intensified conflicts between secular and traditional cultures around the world ...
 

"... Meeting the need for the widest possible "environment scanning " to detect emerging issues and solutions ... The most 'significant' problem that may be solved by this project is the limited information and coordination in researching and resolving global problems and issues ... Develop a core consensus of high priority, manageable areas for study/ action ... Provide a tested process for trans-personal collaboration ... Suggest practical, manageable uses of the new super-highways or the information age by 'connecting' future-oriented thinkers, their combined attention to issues should be very productive ... Draw attention to global issues that must be addressed and without which this effort might get swept under the rug ... To improve methods and methodology of future oriented studies ...

"... Selection of relevant data stored in different ways in various databases in such a way that they can be formed and shaped to be tailor-made to the point for panelists and other interested people. As a result of the project further harmonization and standardization of the structure of databases around the world could be achieved ... The most significant problem that this project could solve would be to help humanity begin a transition from looking at the world and the future through mechanistic, industrial-age processes which characterize the old paradigm to a new, systems, and perhaps intuition-based approach, which effectively deals with the explosion of information and other extraordinary forces driving change which will define the coming years ... Providing a global background against which regional and national policy-making can be supported and tested ... Link dozens of other similar projects ... Reduce conflict and improve conflict management ... evaluation of future research methodology."

Comparison of Communications 
Cost and Advantages

The following chart compares communications media. The cost is calculated based on an average of ten pages of information being sent to and received from a panel of 200 people. A Delphi questionnaire during the Phase I study cost an average of $2.51 airmail from the U.S. overseas. These rates increased since then and some countries' airmail rates may be higher than the U.S. Nevertheless, we took $2.50 as the average for the calculation below. A fax of the same Delphi questionnaire during Phase I from Washington, D.C. to Beijing on a Sunday night with reduced rates was over US$10. During business hours this will be higher. Long distance telephone rates from the U.S. to overseas tends to be less than for calls from overseas to the U.S. Each fax requires anindividual telephone call and 1 in 5 long distance calls had to be repeated for some technical reason. Since 35-40% of the calls could be within the U.S., we took the lower $10 per successful individual fax transmission as the average for the calculation below. In most cases, the cost of an individual communication by e-mail on Bitnet is zero. 80% of the e-mail users in this study are on Bitnet or other Internet-connected systems with no individual email communications or time charge. 20% of email users are on commercial systems, with email costs ranging from $0.10 to $0.70 per e-mail communication of ten pages. Many countries add a "kilo-character charge" in addition to line-time, increasing the cost of transmission closer to the $0.70 estimate. Email can be batched from one to many, hence making the round trip cost less. Nevertheless, we took $0.25 as the averagecommercial email cost per ten-page transmission.

Communications Medium Cost/Advantage Chart

COMMUNICATIONS MEDIUM COST/ADVANTAGE CHART

Medium

Advantage

Disadvantage

Send/Receive Cost for Panel of 200

Airmail

Universally available, Clean copy, Easy to use

Slow (one month round trip US-China) Uncertain delivery

$1,000
(200 x 2.50 x 2)

Fax

Fast, Easy to use

Cost, Availability, Individual calls each, Equipment, Paper

$4,000
(200 x 10 x 2)

Email

Least expensive, Fast, Multi-delivery, Computer storage, Mobile access

Availability, Requires Training, Equipmant, No automatic notification

$20
(200 x 20% x .25 x 2)

 

Feasibility Study Participants List

As in all dynamic systems, institutional affiliations change over time. Participant's citizenship is listed in parenthesis, if it is different from the country listed for their address.

Adigun AdeAbiodun (Nigeria)
UN Outer Space Affairs
Vienna, Austria

Olugbenga Adesida (Nigeria)
UNDP/African Futures
Abidjan, Cote D'ivoire

Marina Alberti (Italy)
European Community
Brussels, Belgium

Emelienne Anikpo
UNDP/African Futures
Abidjan, Cote D'Ivoire

Jacques Arcade
Sirius
Montpelier, France

Paul Armington
World Bank
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Edward Ayensu, President
Pan African Union
Science & Technology
Accra, Ghana

Mohsen Bahrami, Prof.
National Research Council
of Iran
Tehran, Iran

Robert Baker, Asst. Prof.
University of Massachusetts
Boston, MA. U.S.

Stafford Beer
Team Syntegrity
Toronto, ON. Canada

Wendell Bell, Prof.
Yale University
New Haven, CT. U.S.

Clem Bezold, President
Institute for Alternative Futures
Alexandria, VA. U.S.

Peter Bishop, Professor
University of Houston
Clearlake, TX. U.S.

Steve Bishop, Prof.
Univ. College London
London, UK

David Blockstein
Com. Nat. Inst. Environment
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Barry Bluestein
WFS On-Line
Bethesda, MD U.S.

Stuart Bretschneider, Prof.
Intl. Inst. of Forecasters
Syracuse Univ., NY. U.S.

Virginia Brown, Prof.
Rowan College of N.J.
Lafayette, N.J. U.S.

William Brown, Ret.
Hudson Institute
Indianapolis, IN U.S.

Abdalla S. Bujra (Kenya)
UNDP/African Futures
Abidjan, Cote D'Ivoire

Webb Castor
Xerox Corp.
Rolling Hills, CA. U.S.
uses to effect societal innovations through its Civic and its Education programs. Continued work on a think piece requested by USC while serving on the Board Of Advisors to the Graduate School, he is now engaged in establishing a highly innovative campus based university through global collaboration.

Additional experience includes several private business ventures and community service

Click here to E-mail

 


Click here to return to the main menu of the Millennium Project Home Page isi afo, nke akuko maka oa n'iru uwa na onwa asa na Washington D.C. Kuku afo ntule nodu amalitele na Moscow(nke ana elekwa na frontiers meka uzo esi amuta ihe) obodo ndi a so n'ime atumatu ntule a, Cairo Igypt, London, Europe, na Washington D.C., BBefing, China, Paris, France na Tokoyo nke isi obodo Japan.

Atumuta nke kuku afo ka ana atule na usoro nke Amirika Council maka UNU na ijiko aka nke Smithsonian ulo akwukwo nkwa ogbako oga n'iru. Ego atepa si na maobu maghadum nke ndi uwa nile nwe na Scithsonian Institution na odi n'iru. Ego akpa si na Ford moto nakwa Monsanto, ndi aromaro, nke nwere ngwado ministri nke science na teknologi, Russian Federation, na computa Maui High performance center nona Hawaii. Atumatu mbu nke akwukwo.

Atumatu ntule a maobbu omumu ntule maka odi n'iru bu: Akwukwo mkpa n'aka nke iheoru nProf.
City College of New York
New York, NY. U.S.

Michael Kelly (Ireland)
European Inst. of Pub. Admin.
Maastricht, Netherlands

John Kettle, Editor
FutureLetter
Oshawa, ON. U.S.

Rushworth M. Kidder, Pres.
Inst. for Global Ethics
Camden, ME. U.S.

Kay Killingsworth
Food and Agricultual Org. (FAO)
Rome, Italy

Torsti Kivisto
VTT - Urban/Bldg/Design
Helsinki, Finland

Astrid Koch
Consultant
Geneva, Switzerland

Neil Kotler
Smithsonian Institution
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Walter LaMendola
The Colorado Trust
Denver, CO. U.S.

Alexander Lavrukhin
Institute for Systems Analysis
Moscow, Russia

Gerald S. Lemire
Consultant
Sunnyvale, CA. U.S.

Allenna Leonard
Team Syntegrity
Toronto, Canada

Changsheng Li (P.R. China)
Complex Sst Consultant
Corrales, NM. U.S.

Phillips Foster, Prof.
University of Maryland
College Park, MD. U.S.

Will Foster
Commercial Internet Exchange
Washington, DC U.S.

John Francis
Francis Group
Edinburgh, Scotland U.K.

Brian M. Free
Alberta Environmental Protection
Edmonton, AL. Canada

Hiroei Fujioka
Inst. for Future Technology
Tokyo, Japan

Noriaki Funada
Dentsu Inst. Human Studies
Tokyo, Japan

Makoto Fuse
Daiwa Research Institute
Tokyo, Japan

Dong Fureng, Director
Economics Institute
Beijing, P.R. China

Nadezdha Gaponenko
Ct. Science & Indus Policy
Moscow, Russia

Song Xue GE, Director
Inst. Sci. Tech. Info. of China
Beijing, P.R. China

Herbert G. Gerjuoy, Prof.
University of Hartford
Hartford, CT. U.S.

Krishna Ghimire
UN Research Inst.
for Soc. Dev.
Geneva, Switzerland

Michel Godet, Prof.
Cons' National d'Arts et Metiers
Paris, France

Horacio H. Godoy, President
IFODEC
Montevideo, Uruguay

Joe Goodwin
Smithsonian Institution
Washington, DC U.S.

John J. Gottsman
Clarity Group
Los Angeles, CA. U.S.

Noel P. Gough, Prof.
Deakin University .
Victoria, Australia

Keith Griffin, Prof. (U.K.)
Univ. of California
Riverside, CA. U.S.

William E. Halal, Prof.
George Washington University
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Steve Hansch
Refugee Policy Group
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Willis W. Harman, Pres.
Institute of Noetic Science
Sausalito, CA. U.S.

Peter Harrold, African Tech.
World Bank
Washington, D.C. U.S.

H. M. Wageih Hassan, Prof
Al-Azhar University and
Al Aharam Press Institute
Cairo, Egypt

Yujiroo Hayashi
Inst. for Future Technology
Tokyo, Japan

G. K. Helleiner, Prof.
University of Toronto
Toronto, ON, Canada

Olaf Helmer
Futurist Consultant
Montecito, CA. U.S.

Hazel Henderson
Futurist Consultant
St. Augustine, FL. U.S.

Laurence Hills
U.S. A.I.D.
Arlington, VA. U.S.

Craig Hubley, President
Hubley and Associates
Toronto, On. Canada

Lauren B. Huddleston
Denver University
Denver, CO. U.S.

Ishrat Husain (Pakistan)
World Bank-AFT/HR
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Ehiedu Iwerebor (Nigeria)
Ast. Prof. Mahattanville College
Purchase, N.Y. U.S.

Anthony J. Judge (Australia)
Union of Intl. Associations
Brussels, Belgium

Robert Jungk (Germany)
International Futures Library
Salzburg, Austria

Paul Kainen, Instructor
Smithsonian Associates
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Gang Ke
Consultant
Beijing, P.R. China

Mitchell Kellman, Prof.
City College of New York
New York, NY. U.S.

Michael Kelly (Ireland)
European Inst. of Pub. Admin.
Maastricht, Netherlands

John Kettle, Editor
FutureLetter
Oshawa, ON. U.S.

Rushworth M. Kidder, Pres.
Inst. for Global Ethics
Camden, ME. U.S.

Kay Killingsworth
Food and Agricultual Org. (FAO)
Rome, Italy

Torsti Kivisto
VTT - Urban/Bldg/Design
Helsinki, Finland

Astrid Koch
Consultant
Geneva, Switzerland

Neil Kotler
Smithsonian Institution
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Walter LaMendola
The Colorado Trust
Denver, CO. U.S.

Alexander Lavrukhin
Institute for Systems Analysis
Moscow, Russia

Gerald S. Lemire
Consultant
Sunnyvale, CA. U.S.

Allenna Leonard
Team Syntegrity
Toronto, Canada

Changsheng Li (P.R. China)
Complex Systems
Research Ct
Durham, N.H. U.S.

Ze-hou Li (P.R. China)
Univ. of Madison
Madison, WI U.S.

Harold A. Linstone, Prof.
Portland State University
Portland, OR. U.S.

Tungsheng Liu
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Beijing, P.R. China

Bruce Lloyd, Prof.
South Bank Polytechnic
London, U.K.

Timothy C. Mack, Editor
Futures Research Quarterly
Bethesda, MD. U.S.

Robert MacNamara
Former President,
World Bank
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Pentti Malaska, Prof.
University of Turku
Turku, Finland

Carlos Mallmann, Prof.
Univ. de Buenos Aires
Buenos Aires, Argentina

Mika Mannermaa, Asst. Prof.
Turku Sch of Econ. & Business
Turku, Finland

Michael Marien, Editor
Futures Survey
LaFayette, N.Y. U.S.

O. W. Markley, Prof.
University of Houston
Clear Lake City, TX. U.S

Graham May, Asst. Prof.
Future Studies Program
England, U.K.

Robert F. May, Prof.
Zoology, Univ. of Oxford
Oxford, UK

Rashmi Mayur
Global Futures Network
Bombay, India

Magda C. McHale, Prof.
SUNY
Buffalo, N.Y. U.S.

Jeffrey A. McNeely
World Conservation Union
Geneva, Switzerland

John McNeill, Prof.
Georgetown Univ.
Washington, D.C. U.S.

William McNeill, Prof.
Univ. of Chicago
Chicago, IL. U.S.

Dennis L. Meadows, Prof.
Univ. of New Hampshire
Durham, N.H. U.S.

Thomas Merrick
World Bank
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Peter Mettler, Professor
Wiesbaden Polytechnic
Wiesbaden, Germany

Wolfgang Michalski (Germany)
OECD
Paris, France

Ian Miles, Prof.
Prest-University
England, U.K.

Kazuo Mizuta, Prof.
Kyoto Sangyo University
Kyoto, Japan

Graham Molitor, President
Public Policy Forecasting
Potomac, MD. U.S.

Peter Moll, Director
Clearinghouse Applied Futures
Wuppertal, Germany

Pedro Morales
CIMA Group
Bogota, S.A. Colombia

Ronald Morse, Director
International Programs
University of Maryland
College Park, MD. U.S.

Teruyasu Murakami
Nomura Research Institute
Tokyo, Japan

Craig Murphy, Prof.
Wellesley College
Amherst, MA. U.S.

Bruce Murray
(ex-NASA/JPL)
Univ. of California
Pasadena, CA. U.S.

Kikujiro Namba, President
Technova, Inc.
Tokyo, Japan

Burt Nanus, Prof.
Univ. of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA. U.S.

Pavel Novacek, Prof.
Palacky University
Olomouc, Czech Republic

Terrence O'Donnell
Salem State College
Salam, MA. U.S.

Bede Okigbo, Dir. (Nigeria)
UNU/INRA - ISSER Complex
Lagon, Ghana

Joseph Okpaku, Pres.(Nigeria)
Okpaku Commications
New York, U.S.

Glenn Olds
Retired Ambassador
Oregon U.S.

Stanislaw Orzeszyna (Poland)
World Health Organization
Geneva, Switzerland

Renat Perelet
Russian Academy of Science
Moscow, Russia

Charles Perrottot, V.P.
The Futures Group
Glastonburry, CT. U.S.

Stayan Pitroda (India)
Inventor
Downers Grove, IL. U.S.

Vladimir Polikarpov
Min. Science & Tech Policy
Moscow, Russia

Faith Popcorn
BrainReserve
New York, NY. U.S.

Sandra Postal
WorldWatch Institute
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Shan Pu, Chairman
Grad. Sch/Acad. of Soc. Sci.
Beijing, P.R. China

Linzheng Qin
Chinese Society Future Studies
Beijing, P.R. of China

R.N.Radhakrishnan
Consultant
New Delhi, India

Terrefe Ras-Work
Intl. Telecommunications Union
Geneva, Switzerland

Erwin Rausch
Didactem Systems, Inc
Trenton, NJ. U.S.

David Rejeski
White House - OSTP
Washington, DC U.S.

William Renfro, President
Policy Analysis Co., Inc.
Washington, D.C. U.S.

George P. Richardson, Prof.
State Univ. of New York
Albany, NY. U.S.

Fatou Rigoulet
USAID/Cote d'Ivoire
Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire

George S. Robinson
Smithsonian Institute
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Michael H. Robinson, Dir.
Smithsonian Zoological Park
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Melita Rodeck
City Planner
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Arsenio Rodriguez, Reg. Dir.
UNEP/ROLAC
Mexico City D.f., Mexico

Michael Rogers (U.K.)
Forward Studies, EC
Brussels, Belguim

Stan Rosen
Hughes Space Communications
El Segundo, CA U.S.

Thomas Rosswall
Royal Swedish Acad
of Science
Stockholm, Sweden

Michael Rothschild, Pres.
Bionomics Institute
San Fafel, C.A. U.S.

Fabrice Roubelat
Electricite de France
France

Luis F. Rubio
CIDAC
Mexico City D.f. Mexico

Siddig Salih (Sudan)
UNU/WIDER
Helsinki, Finland

Idrissa Samba
USAID/Cote d'Ivoire
Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire

Stephen Sapirie
World Health Organization
Geneva, Switzerland

Walter Shearer
United Nations University
New York, N.Y. U.S.

Mark Schaefer
Office of Sci & Tech Policy
White House, Wash, D.C. U.S.

Carlos Edgar Ross Scheede
Proa Consultores
Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Sue Schram
CIESIN
Washington, D.C. U.S.

R.G.A. de Schutter
Equity Trust Co. NV
the Netherlands

O.J. Sikes
U.N. Population Fund
N.Y. 10017-5880

Jyoti Shankar Singh
UNFPA
New York, NY. U.S.

Mihaly Simai, Dir. (Hungary) UNU/WIDER
Helsinki, Finland

Clive Simmonds, President
Futurescan International
Ottawa, ON. Canada

Robert Smith, President
The Futures Group
Washington, D.C. U.S.

David Snyder, President
Snyder Family Enterprise
Bethesda, MD U.S.

Oscar N. Soria, Prof.
Univ. Autonoma de Guadalajara
Jalisco, Mexico

John Spencer
Consultant
Los Angeles, CA. U.S.

Barry Steer (U.K.)
Florida. International Univ
Boca Raton, FL. U.S.

Tony Stevenson
World Future Studies Federation
Brisbane, Australia

Takahiro Suzuki
Sasakawa Peace Foundation
Tokyo, Japan

Allen Tough, Prof.
Univ. of Toronto
Toronto, Canada

Edward Tower, Prof.
Duke University
Durham, NC. U.S.

Juha I. Uitto
United Nations University
Tokyo, Japan

Andre Van Dam
Futurist Consultant
Martinex, Argentina

Matti Vanhanen
Member of Parliament
Helsinki, Finland

Tatu Vanhanen, Prof.
University of Helsinki
Helsinki, Finland

Nicolas Vernier (France)
World Bank
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Hassan Virji (Tanzania)
International START
Washington, D.C. U.S.

Rusong Wang, Chairman
Urban Systems Ecology Beijing, P.R. China

Xinhau Wang (P.R. China)
Technology Institute
Washington D.C. U.S.

Eberhard Weber
California State Univ. Fresno
Fresno, CA. U.S.

Paul Werbos
National Science Foundation
Arlington, VA U.S.

Ernst von Weizsacker
Wuppertal Institute
Wuppertal, Germany

Norio Yamamoto, Dir.
Global Infrastructure Fund and Mitsubishi Research Institute
Tokyo, Japan

Yutaka Yamamoto
Institute for Applied Energy
Tokyo, Japan

John Young
Multimedia Software
Frederick, MD U.S.

Zhao Ying-Bo
Anhui Acad of Soc. Science
Anhui, Hefei, P.R. China