AUNU Millennium Project

Millennium Project

Millennium 3000 Study

The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University in cooperation with The Foundation for the Future conducted a special study on collecting foreseeable factors that might significantly affect the future of humanity in the next 1000 years. Those factors were rated by the panel of the first round of this study as to: a) how plausible it is that the factor will influence the human condition 1000 years from today; b) assuming that the factor does occur, how important its effect might be on the human condition; and c) ability of human intervention such as policy and/or funding to affect that factor’s trajectory. Round 1 also asked about the factor’s likely trajectory, benchmarks of its development, and some possible unexpected or low probability consequences. These views were used by the authors, Jerry Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon, to construct six draft scenario sketches to the year 3000. The second and final questionnaire asked for participants' additions, edits, corrections, and comments on these scenarios. They were also asked to list a fundamentally important question or two that arises due to the scenario. The results are included in the State of the Future at the Millennium.

The Scenarios

Round 2

Questionnaire
The results and views of round 1 were used to construct draft scenario sketches to the year 3000. Six scenario sketches are enclosed in this round for further comments of the Millennium 3000 Panel:

Scenario 1. Still Alive at 3000

Scenario 2. End of Humanity and the Rise of Phoenix

Scenario 3. It’s About Time

Scenario 4. The Great Divides

Scenario 5. The Rise and Fall of the Robot Empire

Scenario 6. ETI Disappoints after 9 Centuries

Round 1

Questionnaire
The Millennium 3000 Panel rated the very long-range factors as to:
a) how plausible it is that the factor will influence the human condition 1000 years from today;
b) assuming that the factor does occur, how important its effect might be on the human condition; and
c) ability of human intervention such as policy and/or funding to affect that factor’s trajectory.
Results of Round 1
Lists the results of the rating of the very long-range factors, along with commnts on factors’ likely trajectory, benchmarks of developments and some possible unexpected or low probability consequences.

Millennium Project home page

Foundation for the Future