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Paperback with CD-ROM ... enclosed CD contains over 5,400 pages of research behind this print edition, plus the Millennium Project's nine years of cumulative research and methods. ISBN: 0-9722051-5-2 Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping Read the Executive Summary (PDF file) Azeri, Chinese, English, French, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish Order

 Table of Contents

 List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes

 What is New in This Year’s Report

During the past decade, the annual State of the Future reports have offered unprecedented insights into the main global trends and the necessary global, regional, and national actions.
                              Mihaly Simai, Former UNU chair and UNU/WIDER Director

State of the Future shows us the importance of future thinking and long-term policymaking.
                             Reyes Tamez, Minister of Education, Mexico

Best money I ever spent at Ford was on the Millennium Project.
                            Ed Martin, former Director, Global Market Research, Ford Motor Company

I treasure very much the outcome of your laudable project…Please keep up your good works.
                            Fritz K. Poku, Ambassador of Ghana to the United States

Previous State of the Future reports are available in Arabic, Chinese, English, Farsi, French, Korean, and Spanish. See http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/issues.html

Seven of the last nine annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.

Extraordinary overview of global prospects for civilization. Futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, ethics, human and international development––what the educated person should know in the global age. Perfect input for policymaking and those interested in global change.

• 15 Global Challenges – Prospects, Strategies, Insights
• 4 Global Energy Scenarios for 2020, rich in detail
• State of the Future Index
• Environmental Security
• 650 Annotated Scenario Sets
• Reflections on 10 years of Global Futures Research

It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions. Over 2,000 futurists, business planners, scientists, scholars, and decisionmakers who work for international organizations, governments, private corporations, NGOs, and universities in more than 50 countries have contributed to this ten-year cumulative research. Your feedback is welcome to improve the next State of the Future.

Paperback with CD-ROM. 125-page print and over 5,400 pages CD-ROM
ISBN: 0-9722051-5-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping.   Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies.
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Also available:

Arabic version 2006 L'Etat du Ftutur Spanish version

Soon to be available in Chinese and Persian

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Table of Contents – Print Section

Table of Contents – CD

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
 

Table of Contents – Print Section
 

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary - 1

1. Global Challenges - 9

2. State of the Future Index - 41

3. 2020 Global Energy Scenarios - 53
             Scenario 1. Business as Usual—The Skeptic 54
             Scenario 2. Environmental Backlash 66
             Scenario 3. High-tech Economy—Technology Pushes Off the Limits 82
             Scenario 4. Political Turmoil 98

4. Emerging Environmental Security Issues- 109

5. Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project - 119

7. Sustainable Development Index and Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators - 89

Appendix
Millennium Project Participants Demographics - 127

Acronyms and Abbreviations - 128

Table of Contents – CD-ROM Section

Executive Summary (7 pages)

1. Global Challenges (956 pages)

2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (230 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (38 pages)
2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)

3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (42 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (24 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (102 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (90 pages)

4. Science and Technology
4 .1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
4 .2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)

3. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)

6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (25 pages)

7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)

8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (49 pages)
8.4 A Marshal Plan for Haiti (12 pages)

9. Environmental Security (649 pages)
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)-UN Perspectives
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements

10. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)

Appendices
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
                    (list of names with affiliation and country)
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Science and Technology
Appendix E: Global Ethics
Appendix F: Global Goals for The Year 2050
Appendix G: World Leaders on Global Challenges
Appendix H: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix I: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix J: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix K: Annotated Bibliographies
                    Annotated Bibliography of About 650 Scenario Sets
                    Ethics Related Organizations
                    Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
                    Women/Gender Organizations
Appendix L: Publications of the Millennium Project

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Tables

Table 1. Influence of Variables’ Changes on the SOFI - 45
Table 2. State Department Data for 2003 and 2005 with sources - 47
Table 3. Comparison between U.S. Department of State and MIPT Data on Terrorism - 47
Table 4. AIDS Historical Data - 48
Table 5. AIDS Data by Regions - 48
Table 6. Evolution of the World Energy Mix (Business as Usual Scenario) - 63
Table 7. Types of Vehicles Sold in 2020 (Environmental Backlash Scenario) - 81
Table 8. Relative Energy Density of Different Fuels - 93
Table 9. Energy Scale and Kardashev Civilization Types - 97

Figures

Figure 1. Energy Demand: Comparison of Four Global Energy Scenarios 2020 - 5
Figure 2. GDP per Capita: Comparison of Four Global Energy Scenarios 2020 - 5
Figure 3. Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (⁰C) - 11
Figure 4. Access to Safe Water (15 most populated countries) - 13
Figure 5. World Grain Production per Person - 15
Figure 6. Global Trends in Freedom -17
Figure 7. Regional Internet Population Growth - 21
Figure 8. Share of People Living on Less than $1 a Day (%) - 23
Figure 9. Growth of International Organizations (NGOs and IGOs) - 27
Figure 10. Number of Armed Conflicts (deaths of 1,000 or more) - 29
Figure 11. Women in National Parliaments (percentage) - 31
Figure 12. World Total Primary Energy Supply - 35
Figure 13. Estimated R&D Expenditures (billions of dollars) in OECD and Cooperating Non-member Countries - 37
Figure 14. Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) - 43
Figure 15. Mean Monthly Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ppm) - 43
Figure 16. Food Availability (calories per capita in low-income countries) - 43
Figure 17. Life Expectancy - 43
Figure 18. Comparison of SOFIs, 2001–05 - 44
Figure 19. National SOFI Backtesting: Projected 2002 versus Real 2002 Values - 49
Figure 20. Countries’ Non-adjusted SOFI Absolute Values - 50
Figure 21. Turkey SOFI - 50
Figure 22. World Oil Prices, 1988–2025 (in current $) - 58
Figure 23. Total Energy Demand Growth, 2000–25 - 58
Figure 24. Global Energy Efficiency (Business as Usual Scenario) - 58
Figure 25. U.S. Inflation Trends, 1960–2025 - 60
Figure 26. Nuclear Power Reactors in India (map) - 66
Figure 27. Global Energy Efficiency (Environmental Backlash Scenario) - 73
Figure 28. CO2 Emissions Forecast - 74
Figure 29. Oil Resources According to Production Costs ($ per barrel) - 85
Figure 30. Energy “Waves” in the United States - 87
Figure 31. The Caucasus Region (map) - 101
Figure 32. China (map) - 101
Figure 33. East China Sea (map) - 102
Figure 34. The Arctic Region (map) - 103
Figure 35. The Middle East (map) - 104
Figure 36. Energy Demand (bill. barrels OE) (Global Energy Scenarios) - 107
Figure 37. Annual Emissions from Fossil Fuels (bill tons) (Global Energy Scenarios) - 107
Figure 38. Energy Prices (2000=100) (Global Energy Scenarios) - 107
Figure 39. Annual Water Use (cubic KM) (Global Energy Scenarios) - 107
Figure 40. GDP per Capita (PPP 95$) (Global Energy Scenarios) - 107
Figure 41. Number of Parties to Multilateral Environmental Agreements, by GEO Region - 111
Figure 42. Number of Parties to Multilateral Environmental Agreements, 1970–2005 - 117
Figure 43. Participants in the 2005–06 Program - 127
Figure 44. Participants Since 1996 - 127

Boxes

Box 1. SOFI Variables’ Progress and Regress Provides a Report Card on the World - 4
Box 2. Variables Included in the SOFI - 42
Box 3. SOFI Variables’ Progress and Regress Provides a Report Card on the World - 44
Box 4. The New Fire (Business as Usual Scenario) - 56
Box 5. We Love Our Golf Carts (Business as Usual Scenario) - 59
Box 6. Sedan Chairs (Business as Usual Scenario) - 62
Box 7. Search for Alternative Energy Sources (High-tech Economy Scenario) - 86

What Is New in This Year’s Report

• Both the short and long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated.
• The State of the Future Index was reviewed, recommendations for improvements were made, and the first SOFI for Turkey is presented.
• Four Global Energy Scenarios are presented in Chapter 3, which were constructed from an annotated global energy scenarios and related research bibliography and from a two-round Delphi, all of which are available in the CD.
• The “real time” Delphi process for collecting expert opinions was developed and introduced for the first time in collecting inputs for the Global Energy Scenarios study. It is presented in Appendix C on the CD.
• More than 250 items related to environmental security were identified, assessed, and organized over the past year. A distilled version is presented in Chapter 4 and the full text is available in the CD.
• A study on a proposed Marshal Plan for Haiti was added to the chapter "Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development" on the CD.
• Descriptions of about 50 scenarios were added to the Annotated Scenarios Bibliography on the CD, for a total of over 650 scenarios and scenario sets.
• Reflections on the 10 years of global futures research by the Millennium Project are presented in Chapter 5.
• The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project works:
  • Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along with an introduction describing their development.
  • Three Middle East Peace scenarios and the three-year study behind them.
  • Science and Technology scenarios and the two-year supporting study.
  • An analysis of the statements by world leaders delivered at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000.
  • Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN military doctrine on environmental issues; potential military environmental crimes and the International Criminal Court; changing environmental security military requirements in 2010–25; and factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking.
  • Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development, conducted by the Millennium Project participants, and an international review of the concept of creating a "Partnership for Sustainable Development," a study initiated by the Central European Node.

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