Millennium Project
2003-2004 Global Lookout Studies

From August 2003 to July 2004, the Millennium Project engaged in a Delphi study which had several distinct objectives that were pursued in three sections:

  1. Updating the 15 challenges being tracked by the Project and listing measures that could be used to determine that the challenges had been met.
  2. Projecting the best and worst plausible future values for the socio economic variables included in the Project’s previous work associated with measures of the State of the Future Index (SOFI)
  3. Identifying and evaluating future developments that could influence the course of the SOFI variables

There were two rounds of questionnaire:

First Round

The questionnaire had three sections tat paralleled the objectives listed above. In the first section, the panel was asked to provide comments, and updated information about the Project’s 15 challenges. Here the intent was to tap first hand knowledge and judgments of the participants about recent developments pertinent to the challenges.

1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?

12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

The question for each challenge was:  

How might this description be improved? Please include comments and additions to the description of this challenge.

Answers were open ended and respondents could answer in as much detail as they cared to provide.

The first question also requested judgments from the respondents about measures that might be used to tell that the challenge had been met. Several examples were provided and the respondents were asked to add others of equal or greater significance.

Here the question was posed as follows:

How will we know when progress on this challenge has been sufficient to reduce its priority? Please provide your judgments about the importance of the suggestions below and add others in the space provided. Please use the following scale to rate the items:
5= The indicator as shown in the list below is a certain measure of accomplishment
4= The indicator is a good and trustworthy measure
3= The indicator is likely to show accomplishment
2= The indicator is of questionable value
1= The indicator is essentially of no value

The second section posed the question:

Variables considered to depict the important conditions of the world are listed in the table below. Please provide two estimates of the value of each variable in the year 2013 - first, your judgment of the best possible outcome and second, your judgment of the worst possible outcome.  In addition, please indicate your opinion about the relative importance of the variables in depicting the state of the future ten years from today. Please use the following scale for importance:

5= of utmost importance
4= very important
3= of some importance
2= of minor importance
1= not important at all

 The variables were:

In each instance the respondents were presented with the values for the variables in 1980 and 2002 and were asked to provide their judgments about the plausible best value, worst value, and the relative importance of each in 2013.

In the third section, each variable was listed again together with some examples of future developments that might cause the historical course of the variables to change. The respondents were asked to add to the list or cross out the developments already listed that they considered implausible or without significance.

Finally, respondents were asked to provide some demographic information to aid in the analysis of the results.

The INVITATION:

Global Challenges

Round 1 Questionnaire

On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in a study to improve understanding of the major global challenges over the next 25 years. You have been selected by one of the 20 Nodes of the Millennium Project due to your insight into these challenges. The results will be used to update and improve the 2004 State of the Future.

The Millennium Project is a global participatory system to collect, synthesize, and feedback judgments on an on-going basis about prospects for the human condition. Its annual State of the Future, Futures Research Methodology, and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions. The Millennium Project is sponsored by the organizations listed below and its research supported by its Nodes around the world listed on this stationery.

No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants in the 2004 State of the Future.

A second round, based on the responses to the enclosed questionnaire, will be sent to you in two or three months. Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by 10 January 2004. You can either respond on-line or email your response as an attached file to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and tedjgordon@att.net, or fax to +1-202-686-5179, or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016.

We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn, Director
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow

Round 1 Questionnaire

 Although this questionnaire appears to be quite long, you are asked to complete only as little or as much as you choose, concentrating in areas about which you are expert or interested. You can also fill out the questionnaire online at: http://acunu.org/millennium/challenges-rd1.html.

No attributions will be made, but for demographic analysis please check the appropriate boxes:

My primary employment is in:

Government ____ UN or other International Organization ____ Corporation (Business) ______
NGO ____ University ____ Independent Consultant _____ Other _______________________

Country __________________________________              Male _____     Female _____

This first round questionnaire asks for your judgments about the 15 global challenges previously identified by the Millennium Project. It has three parts:

  1. First, you are invited to consider how one might tell whether or not a challenge has been mastered--that is, what signs would there be that sufficient progress has been made to reduce the high priority currently associated with the challenge? You are also invited to comment on the challenge(s) of your choice, indicating how the description of the challenge might be improved.
  2. In the second part, you will be invited to consider a number of quantitative variables used in past work to identify the changing state of the world and to estimate the best and worst values you might expect for these variables in the next ten years.
  3. In the third part, you will be asked to list future developments, which, if they occurred, could have dramatic affects on the variables listed in Part 2. In all instances, examples are provided for each variable and you are invited to add to the list.

After results of this round are collated, they will be sent to you in a second round that will explore the most significant issues in further depth.

Note: Complete descriptions of each of the 15 Global Challenges are available on the CD-ROM accompanying the 2003 State of the Future. This source includes a more extensive description, additional comments made by the participants in the study, interviews with policy-makers, regional perspectives, results of interviews with decisionmakers in many regions throughout the world, suggested actions to address the challenges, and a possible set of indicators that could measure progress on the challenge.

PART 1: Please comment on the challenge(s) of your choice and suggest how the description of the challenge might be improved. Then please provide your judgment about measures that would indicate that the challenge(s) have been mastered.

15 Global Challenges
1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?

12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

PART 2:  Variables considered to depict the important conditions of the world are listed in the table below. Please provide two estimates of the value of each variable in the year 2013 - first, your judgment of the best possible outcome and second, your judgment of the worst possible outcome.  In addition, please indicate your opinion about the relative importance of the variables in depicting the state of the future ten years from today. Please use the following scale for importance:
5= of utmost importance
4= very important
3= of some importance
2= of minor importance
1= not important at all
Space is provided at the end of the table for comments on the variables and additional suggestions.

Variable

Values for
1982 and 2002

Best Value

Worst Value

Import-ance

Import-ance

 

1982

2002

2013

2013

Best

Worst

Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

86.7

52.4

 

 

 

 

Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries

2382.0

2740.0

 

 

 

 

GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)

4,335

5,675

 

 

 

 

Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)

60.7

80.9

 

 

 

 

CO2 atmospheric, ppm

337.9

367.5

 

 

 

 

Annual population additions (millions)

80.6

73.9

 

 

 

 

Percent unemployed (world)

5.6

7.0

 

 

 

 

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)

64.9

78.0

 

 

 

 

Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

0.00

3.10

 

 

 

 

Life Expectancy (World)

56.8

63.8

 

 

 

 

Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/year)

31

25

 

 

 

 

Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%)

24.7

42.9

 

 

 

 

Forest Lands (Million Hectares)

4087

3897

 

 

 

 

Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day

2295

2884

 

 

 

 

Terrorist Attacks

739

3361

 

 

 

 

Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)

1151

1077

 

 

 

 

Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free

41.7

35.0

 

 

 

 

School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)

48

69

 

 

 

 

Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

70.6

97.8

 

 

 

 

Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

14

17

 

 

 

 

Comments on the indicators and/or further explanation of your responses in Part 2 (please take as much space you need):

 

 

PART 3: Please add plausible future developments which, if they occurred, could have dramatic affects - either positive or negative - within the next ten years on the variables listed in Part 2 and repeated the left column of the table below.

We have provided a number of examples; you are invited to add to the list or cross out the developments already listed that you consider implausible or without significance.

Variables

Future Developments that could change the course of the Variables

1. Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

1.1 Inexpensive very long term, low cost contraceptives: wide availability.
1.2. Effective widespread application of human genome.
1.3 Further industrialization of China, India.
1.4 Effective social marketing promoting health care, other public objectives.
1.5
1.6

2. Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries

2.1 Biotech in agriculture: improved food availability, animal health, insect-and disease resistant plants, etc.
2.2 Cost-effective desalination increasing safe water access by 20%.
2.3 Interminable wars, accounting for more than 50,000 casualties over 4 years.
2.4 Oil prices climb to 50 dollars per barrel.
2.5
2.6

3. GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)

3.1 Convergence of information/communication technologies lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production.
3.2. Reserves of natural resources expand through introduction of more efficient discovery and extraction technologies.
3.3 Unemployment swings of 10% from expectations.
3.4 Economic expansion of at least 5% from new fields such as applied nanotechnology.
3.5 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.
3.6
3.7

4. Pct of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)

4.1 Desalination: cost effective desalination eventually increasing safe water access by 20%.
4.2 Convergence of information/ communication technologies lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production.
4.3 Further industrialization of China, India.
4.4 Biotech in agriculture: leading to 20% reduction of agricultural water use.
4.5
4.6

5. CO2 atmospheric, ppm

5.1 Further industrialization of China, India.
5.2 Sustainability: environmental consciousness is pervasive.
5.3 Hydrogen economy: 5% of hydrocarbon fuels replaced with H2.
5.4 Oil prices climb to 50 dollars per barrel.
5.5 Economic expansion of at least 5% from new fields such as applied nanotechnology.
5.6 Carbon sequestration widely practiced and effective.
5.7
5.8

6. Annual population additions (millions)

6.1. Effective social marketing promoting health care, other public objectives.
6.2. Inexpensive very long-term, low-cost contraceptives: wide availability.
6.3. Anti-aging therapy: low-cost, increases life expectancy 20%.
6.4 Great increase in economic participation of women in most poor countries (e.g. through micro-entrepreneurship), increasing GNP/cap 2% worldwide.
6.5. Further industrialization of China, India.
6.6 Gender selection: development and widespread availability of a chemical or genetic process that permits the selection of a male or female child before conception.
6.7
6.8

7. Percentage of world population unemployed

7.2 Further industrialization of China, India.
7.2 Elderly labor force: increased labor force participation among those older than age 65, due to improved education and health.
7.3 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.
7.4 Convergence of information/communication technologies lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production.
7.5
7.6

8. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)

8.1 Convergence of information/communication technologies lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production.
8.2 Effective social marketing promoting health care, other public objectives.
8.3 Tele-citizens; more than 10,000 people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via telecommuting.
8.4 Great increase in economic participation of women in most poor countries.
8.5
8.6

9. Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

9.1 HIV placed into a dormant state through the use of inexpensive and widely available drugs.
9.2 Effective social marketing promoting health care, other public objectives.
9.3. Cheaper drugs (25% on the average): changes in intellectual property conventions that make drugs available, royalty-free or under reduced royalties.
9.4 Marshalling of resources by developed nations to end AIDS and treat HIV.
9.5 Genetic design: essentially full control of genetics and biochemical processes of all living organisms.
9.6
9.7

10. Life Expectancy (World)

10.1 Effective social marketing promoting health care, other public objectives.
10.2. Marshaling of resources by developed nations to end AIDS and treat HIV carriers.
10.3 Water-borne diseases cured or prevented.
10.4. Biotech in agriculture: improved food availability, animal health, insect-and disease resistant plants, etc.
10.5. HIV placed into a dormant state through the use of inexpensive and widely available drugs.
10.6 Gene therapy: effective and widespread application of human genome knowledge to disease cures.
10.7
10.8

11. Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)

11.1 Precision guided missiles for developing countries and terrorists.
11.2 UN reform (improved efficiency and accountability) and first steps to global governance (not government).
11.3 Interminable wars, accounting for more than 50,000 casualties over 4 years.
11.4 Development of the EU; extension to the East, reduction of possibility of European wars.
11.5 Global political order; more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions (e.g. weapons of mass destruction, human rights).
11.6. NATO remaining strong and growing as important political, military force.
11.7. Internet use by dissidents, criminals, terrorists for communications; Internet crime up 50%.
11.8
11.9

12. Debt/GNP
Developing Countries (%)

12.1 Reserves of natural resources expand through introduction of more efficient discovery and extraction technologies.
12.2 Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises: money laundering equals 5-10 % global GNP.
12.3 UN reform (improved efficiency and accountability) and first steps to global governance (not government).
12.4 Precision guided missiles for developing countries and terrorists.
12.5. Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.
12.6 Interminable wars, accounting for more than 50,000 casualties over 4 years.
12.7 Further industrialization of China, India.
12.8
12.9

13. Forest Lands (Million Hectares)

13.1 Sustainability: environmental consciousness is pervasive, affects decisionmaking everywhere.
13.2 Biotech in agriculture: improved food availability as well as enhanced animal health, insect- and disease-resistant plants, etc.
13.3 Further industrialization of China, India.
13.4 Environmental security becoming an important national security issue; military involved in resolving environmental issues.
13.5 Oil prices climb to 50 dollars per barrel.
13.6
13.7

14. Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day

14.1 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.
14.2 Great increase in economic participation of women in most poor countries (e.g. through micro-entrepreneurship), increasing GNP/cap 2% worldwide.
14.3 Inexpensive very long-term contraceptives: wide availability and low cost.
14.4 Further industrialization of China, India.
14.5 Global political order; more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions (e.g. weapon of mass destruction, human rights).
14.6 Elderly labor force: increased labor force participation among those older than age 65, due to improved education and health.
14.7
14.8

15. Terrorist Attacks

15.1 Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists.
15.2 Internet use by dissidents, criminals, terrorists for communications; Internet crime up 50%.
15.3 Global political order; more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions (e.g. weapons of mass destruction, human rights).
15.4 International Criminal Court becomes effective deterrent with enforcement powers to punish those convicted of atrocious communal violence.
15.5 Conflict resolution: development and use of effective techniques for non-violent conflict resolution drop wars by 10%.
15.6
15.7

16. Violent Crime
17 Countries (per 100,000 population)

16.1 Internet use by dissidents, criminals, terrorists for communications; Internet crime up 50%.
16.2 Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises: money laundering equals 5-10 % global GNP.
16.3 International Criminal Court becomes effective deterrent with enforcement powers to punish those convicted of atrocious communal violence.
16.4 Establishment of international police institutions and methods leading to a 25% reduction in violent crime.
16.5 Legalization of some currently outlawed drugs.
16.6
16.7

17. Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free

17.1 Precision guided missiles for developing countries and terrorists.
17.2 Convergence of information/ communication technologies lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production.
17.3 Global political order; more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions (e.g. weapon of mass destruction, human rights).
17.4 UN reform (improved efficiency and accountability) and first steps to global governance (not government).
17.5 Standing UN peacekeeping/conflict resolution force, or designated standby troops of member nations.
17.6 Conflict resolution: development and use of effective techniques for non-violent conflict resolution drop wars by 10%.
17.7
17.8

18. School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)

18.1 Tele-citizens; more than 10,000 people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via telecommuting.
18.2 Convergence of information/communication technologies lead to improved education, employment, environment, health, and production.
18.3 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.
18.4 Global political order; more aspects of national sovereignty are subject to international decisions (e.g. weapon of mass destruction, human rights).
18.5 Effective social marketing promoting health care, other public objectives.
18.6
18.7

19. Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

19.1 Elderly labor force: increased labor force participation among those older than age 65, due to improved education and health.
19.2 Effective social marketing promoting health care, other public objectives.
19.3 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.
19.4 Inexpensive very long-term contraceptives: wide availability and low cost.
19.5 Great increase in economic participation of women in most poor countries (e.g. through micro-entrepreneurship), increasing GNP/cap 2% worldwide.
19.6
19.7

20. Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

20.1 Interminable wars, accounting for more than 50,000 casualties over 4 years.
20.2. Increasing decision failures of governments due to inability to manage complex systems.
20.3 Development of the EU; extension to the East, reduction of possibility of European wars.
20.4 Democracy: acceleration of trend toward democracy (10% more countries).
20.5 Internet use by dissidents, criminals, terrorists for communications; Internet crime up 50%.
20.6
20.7

Comments:

 

 

 

Thank you very much for your participation. You will receive the second round in about two or three months.

Please return your responses to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by 10 January 2004.

Submitting your responses:

Please send this as an attached file to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and tedjgordon@att.net.

Or fax to: +1-202-686-5179

Or airmail to:
The Millennium Project
American Council for the United Nations University
4421 Garrison St. NW
Washington, DC 20016 USA

 

Round 2

The respondents’ answers to Section 1 of the first round updating the challenges were extensive and useful and have been incorporated in the new statements of the challenges.

Similarly, responses to Section 2 showed relatively good agreement among respondents and further inquiry about the future “best” and “worst” values for the SOFI variables was not pursued.

In Section 3, the respondents added many developments that they thought could affect the course of the SOFI variables. These were explored further in Round 2. After editing and combining the suggested developments, a list for each variable was presented and questions were posed about the likelihood of the developments, their level of impact on the variables with which they were associated and timing of their impact on the variables. The likelihood scale was:

Likelihood by or before 2014
                                                 
5 = almost certain
4 = very likely                                                               
3 = as likely as not                                                       
2 = unlikely                                                                  
1 = almost certainly will not occur by 2014                     

 

The impact question was:

Please provide your judgments in this column about the peak change in the variable that would result if the development were to occur. Note that impacts may be positive or negative.

      Impact

5 = Very high impact
4 = High impact
3 = Moderate impact
2 = Little impact
1 = No impact

The question relating to the timing of the impact was posed as follows:

Naturally, some developments will have an impact on a variable much sooner than others. To take this into account in calculating the next State of the Future Index (SOFI), please assume the development occurs and estimate the number of years from the development’s occurrence to the peak of its impact on the variable.

Text Box: Planning Committee  Olugbenga Adesida  Ismail Al-Shatti  Mohsen Bahrami  Eduardo Raul Balbi  Eleonora Barbieri-Masini  Peter Bishop  José Luis Cordeiro  George Cowan  Cornelia Daheim  Francisco Dallmeier  James Dator  Nadezhda Gaponenko   Michel Godet  John Gottsman  Miguel A. Gutierrez  Hazel Henderson  Arnoldo José de Hoyos  Zhouying Jin  Bruce Lloyd  Anandhavalli Mahadevan  Pentti Malaska  Kamal Zaki Mahmoud  Shinji Matsumoto  Pavel Novacek  Charles Perrottet  Cristina Puentes-Markides  David Rejeski  Saphia Richou  Stanley G. Rosen  Mihaly Simai  Rusong Wang  Paul Werbos  Norio Yamamoto  Sponsor Representatives  Ismail Al-Shatti  Michael K. O’Farrell  John Fittipaldi  Oscar Motomura  Michael Stoneking  Director  Jerome C. Glenn  Senior Fellow  Theodore J. Gordon  Director of Research  Elizabeth Florescu  Regional Nodes  Beijing, China  Berlin/Essen, Germany  Brussels Area, Belgium  Buenos Aires, Argentina  Cairo, Egypt  Calgary, Canada  Caracas, Venezuela  Helsinki, Finland  London, UK  Moscow, Russia  New Delhi/Madurai, India  Paris, France  Prague, Czech Republic  Rome, Italy  Salmiya, Kuwait  São Paulo, Brazil  Silicon Valley, USA  Tehran, Iran  Tokyo, Japan  Washington, D.C., USA  Global Challenges

Round 2 Questionnaire

On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in Round 2 of a study to improve understanding of the major global challenges over the next 25 years. You need not have participated in Round 1 to contribute to this activity. You have been selected by the one of the 20 Nodes of the Millennium Project (listed below right) for your insight and judgments about global challenges.

The Millennium Project is a global participatory system to collect, synthesize, and feedback judgments on an ongoing basis about prospects for the human condition. Decision-makers and educators use its annual State of the Future report, Futures Research Methodology, and other special reports to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions. The Millennium Project is sponsored by the organizations listed below and its Nodes around the world support its research.

No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants in the 2004 State of the Future and will receive a complimentary copy of the report.

The first round questionnaire asked for judgments about 15 global challenges, projections of the best and worst outcomes anticipated for 20 key variables, and a set of future developments that could affect the course of the 20 variables. This second round asks your judgments about the likelihood and consequences of the future developments suggested in Round 1. You can also fill out the questionnaire online at: http://acunu.org/millennium/challenges-rd2.html.

Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the AC/UNU Millennium Project by 26 May 2004. You can respond on-line at: http://acunu.org/millennium/challenges-rd2.html or email your response as an attached file to acunu@igc.org with a copy to: tedjgordon@att.net and jglenn@igc.org.

We look forward to including your views.

Sincerely yours,
Jerome C. Glenn, Director
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow
Text Box: Current Sponsors: Amana-Key, Applied Materials, Dar Almashora (for Kuwait Oil Company), Deloitte & Touche, U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute  Inkind:  Smithsonian Institution, World Future Society, and World Federation of United Nations Associations.


Round 2 Questionnaire

You may complete all or any portion of this questionnaire, concentrating in areas about which you are expert or interested. You can also fill out the questionnaire online at: http://acunu.org/millennium/challenges-rd2.html.

No attributions will be made, but for demographic analysis please check the appropriate boxes:

My primary employment is in:

Government ____ UN or other International Organization ____ Corporation (Business) ______
NGO ____ University ____ Other _____________________

Country __________________________________                        Male ____         Female ____

Address to mail your complimentary copy of the 2004 State of the Future:
Name:
Institution:
Street:
City:                                                      State/Country:                                      Postal Code:

 

The first round consisted of three sections:

1) Commentary on the 15 Global Challenges of the Millennium Project and how to measure progress on these challenges. The results will appear in the 2004 State of the Future report.

2) Projections of the best and worst values of twenty variables associated with the State of the Future Index. A table displaying the median values of the panel’s judgments about best and worst values of the 20 variables appears at the end of this questionnaire for your information.

3) Future developments that might affect the 20 variables. This second round questionnaire focuses just on the future developments suggested by the participants in the first round.

Please provide your judgments about the future developments listed in the table below. This list has been derived from Round 1 responses that have been edited for clarity, distilled to reduce redundancy, and selected for significance of impact. The complete list of suggested developments from Round 1 will be included in the CD attached to the 2004 State of the Future.

Column 1 lists the 20 variables that contribute to the State of the Future Index.

Column 2 lists future developments that were derived from Round 1 next to the variables that they may affect.

Column 3 provides space for you to record your judgments about the likelihood of a development’s occurrence by or before 2014 using the following scale:

Likelihood by or before 2014
5 = almost certain
4 = very likely
3 = as likely as not
2 = unlikely
1 = almost certainly will not occur by 2014

Column 4 is associated with the developments’ impacts on the variables. Please provide your judgments in this column about the peak change in the variable that would result if the development were to occur. Note that impacts may be positive or negative.

Impact
5 = Very high impact
4 = High impact
3 = Moderate impact
2 = Little impact
1 = No impact

Column 5 deals with the timing of the impact. Naturally, some developments will have an impact on a variable much sooner than others. To take this into account in calculating the next State of the Future Index (SOFI), please assume the development occurs and estimate the number of years from the development’s occurrence to the peak of its impact on the variable.

As an example, consider development 1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives. If you thought this development were very likely to occur before 2014, you would enter a “4” in column 3. Now consider its effect on variable 1, “Infant Mortality Rate”. Assume the development happened. If you thought it would greatly decrease infant mortality rate you would enter a “- 5” in column 4. Now, how long would it take to reach its peak effect after it occurred? If you thought it would take 10 years, you would enter a “10” in column 5.

 

1

3

4

5

Variable

Likeli-hood by 2014

Level of impact

Years from occurring to peak impact

1  Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives.

 

 

 

1.2 China and India becomes 50% urbanized

 

 

 

1.3 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people

 

 

 

1.4 Standard vaccinations of 70% of all children under five years

 

 

 

1.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75% of women

 

 

 

1.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches 85%

 

 

 

1.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15%

 

 

 

1.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%.

 

 

 

 

2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries

2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices.

 

 

 

2.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%. (See 1.8))

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2.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries

 

 

 

2.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and distribution reducing food waste by 10%.

 

 

 

2.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2% of the world’s crops

 

 

 

2.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3%.

 

 

 

2.7 Production increases from high tech agriculture including biotech crops, improved irrigation and soil conservation, gains of 10% in productivity

 

 

 

2.8 Energy costs rise by 25%

 

 

 

2.9 Energy costs drop 25%.

 

 

 

2.10 World population growth of 20%

 

 

 

3. GNP per capita PPP (Purchasing Power Parity in constant US$ 1995)

3.1 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old

 

 

 

3.2 Nanotech and biotech new industries account for 5% growth addition to world economy.

 

 

 

3.3 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%.

 

 

 

3.4 Military/security spending drops 25% from current levels

 

 

 

3.5 Rise of trade wars, new isolationist policies limiting trade to current levels.

 

 

 

3.6 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices. (See 2.1)

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3.7 Women’s participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today.

 

 

 

3.8 Energy costs rise by 25% (See 2.8)

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3.9 Energy costs drop 25%. (See 2.9)

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4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)

4.1 Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20% globally

 

 

 

4.2 New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10% per unit of agricultural production.

 

 

 

4.3 Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water; drought in others, makes water 5% less available on the whole.

 

 

 

4.4 Improved sanitation increases clean surface water by 5%

 

 

 

4.5 World population growth of 20% (See 2.10)

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4.6 Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies able in the poorest regions

 

 

 

4.7 Construction and use of high volume inter-watershed pipelines

 

 

 

4.8 Terrorists contaminating water supplies; supplies remain unusable for decades.

 

 

 

5. CO2 atmospheric, ppm

5.1 Total industrial output of China plus India grows by 30%

 

 

 

5.2 Energy costs rise by 25% (See 2.8)

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5.3 Energy costs drop 25%. (See 2.9)

/////////////

 

 

5.4 World population growth of 20% (See 2.10)

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5.5 Carbon sequestration used by 25% of carbon-based industries’ energy conversions

 

 

 

5.6 Growth of solar, wind power, other “green” energy sources reduces burning in energy production by 5%

 

 

 

5.7 Reforestation increases wooded land cover by 10%

 

 

 

5.8 Closing of 25% of existing nuclear power plants

 

 

 

5.9 Kyoto Protocol in force via Russian ratification or other required country

 

 

 

5.10 First orbital solar power satellite feeds electric grid on earth

 

 

 

6. Annual population additions (millions)

6.1 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people (See 1.3)

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6.2 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives. (See 1.1)

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6.3. Low cost anti-aging therapies increase life expectancy 20%

 

 

 

6.4 Women’s participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today. (See 3.7)

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6.5 China and India becomes 50% urbanized (See 1.2)

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6.6 Widespread availability of a chemical or genetic process that permits gender selection of child before conception

 

 

 

6.7 Another pandemic of the scale of HIV/AIDS

 

 

 

6.8 Lifting of Catholic prohibitions of the use of contraceptives

 

 

 

7. Percentage of world population unemployed

7.1 China and India becomes 50% urbanized (See 1.2)

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7.2 Elderly labor force: 10% increase among those people older than age 65.

 

 

 

7.3 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old  (See 3.1)

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7.4 Unemployment swings of 10% (up or down) from expectations

 

 

 

7.5 Economic expansion of at least 5% from new fields such as applied nanotechnology

////////////

 

 

7.6 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.3)

////////////

 

 

7.7 Automation and robotics increase productivity 25% in enough countries to make “jobless" economic growth

 

 

 

7.8 Women’s participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today (See 3.7)

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8. Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above)

8.1 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old  (See 3.1)

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8.2 Global tele-education literacy programs available via hand-held devices costing less than US$10 per unit

 

 

 

8.3 Tele-citizens; more than 10,000 people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via international tele-commuting.

 

 

 

8.4 Advent of a “teachers without borders” movement (10,000 new teachers in the field).

 

 

 

8.5 Women’s participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today (See 3.8)

 

 

 

9. Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

9.1 HIV placed into a dormant state through the use of inexpensive (even in poor countries) and widely available drugs

 

 

 

9.2 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people (See 1.3)

////////////

 

 

9.3. Major global agreements with drug manufacturers and governments, which makes AIDS management drugs available to the majority of those who need them.

 

 

 

9.4 Developed nations commit the resources necessary to end AIDS and treat HIV.

 

 

 

9.5 Vaccine developed and used on the scale of WHO’s Small Pox campaign

 

 

 

10. Life Expectancy

10.1 Discovery of how aging occurs

 

 

 

10.2 Availability of a cheap anti-aging therapy, base on the knowledge of how aging occurs

 

 

 

10.3 Average cost of drugs falls 25%

 

 

 

10.4 Gene therapy: effective and widespread application of human genome knowledge to disease cures.

 

 

 

10.5 Major epidemics akin to AIDS (See 6.7)

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11. Number of Armed Conflicts (1000 or more deaths per year)

11.1 Massive, nearly global surveillance system to monitor weapons and weapons-related materials and equipment

 

 

 

11.2 Precision guided missiles become available to developing countries and terrorists.

 

 

 

11.3 UN reform (improved efficiency and accountability) and improved global governance (not government).

 

 

 

11.4 Control of the illegal weapons trade including export and use of land mines

 

 

 

11.5 International early warnings and interventions prevent environmental catastrophes and mass migrations

 

 

 

11.6 International Criminal Court proves to be a successful institution for trying indicted political figures

 

 

 

12. Debt/GNP Developing Countries (percent)

12.1 Debt forgiveness by developed world (debt reduced by 50% overall)

 

 

 

12.2 Transnational organized crime grows to 8% of the global economy

 

 

 

12.3 Precision guided missiles become available to developing countries and terrorists. (See 11.2)

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12.4 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.3)

/////////////

 

 

12.5 Debt for Nature swaps reduces total developing country debt an additional 5%

 

 

 

13. Forest Lands (Million Hectares)

13.1 Sustainability: environmental consciousness is pervasive, affects decision-making everywhere; rate of loss of forest diminished by 20%.

 

 

 

13.2 Production increases from high tech agriculture including biotech crops, improved irrigation and soil conservation, gains of 10% in productivity (See 2.7)

/////////////

 

 

13.3 Environmental security becoming an important national security issue; military involved in resolving environmental issues

 

 

 

13.4 Large-scale reforestation programs adopted by most critical countries but majority of funding form international coalitions

 

 

 

13.5 Energy costs rise by 25% (See 2.8)

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13.6 Energy costs drop 25%. (See 2.9)

////////////

 

 

13.7 Debt for Nature swaps reduces total developing country debt an additional 5% (See 12.5)

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13.8 Conversion of deserts into green lands adding 5% to global arable lands

 

 

 

13.9 Development of fast growing trees satisfies demand for wood without reducing the acreage in forests

 

 

 

13.10 Increased CO2 and global warming results in forests expanding northward by 5% in Russia and North America

 

 

 

14. Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day

14.1 Global partnerships for development between rich entrepreneurs and those in areas where people live  on less that $2 per day

 

 

 

14.2 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.3)

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14.3 Women’s participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today. (See 3.7)

/////////////

 

 

14.4 China and India becomes 50% urbanized (See 1.2)

////////////

 

 

14.5 Elderly labor force: 10% increase among those people older than age 65. (See 7.2)

/////////////

 

 

14.6 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old (See 3.1)

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14.7 International business between North and South is based upon principles of justice and equity

 

 

 

15. Terrorist Attacks

15.1 International surveillance system and national arresting authorities in regular and cooperative contact

 

 

 

15.2 Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people

 

 

 

15.3 Emergence of new Islamic leaders, who stress historic Islamic role in science and multicultural respect, makes it feasible to silence advocates of terrorist acts.

 

 

 

15.4 International Criminal Court proves to be a successful institution for trying indicted political figures (See 11.6)

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15.5 US diplomacy becomes more multilateral and less arrogant

 

 

 

15.6 Resolution of Israeli-Palestinian conflict

 

 

 

15.7 International development assistance increases 30%, reinforcing international solidarity, and issues of social justice

 

 

 

15.8 Invention and commercialization of new types of arms and surreptitious detection devices used to interdict terror activities.

 

 

 

16. Violent Crime 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)

16.1 Transnational organized crime grows to 8% of the global economy  (See 12.2)

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16.2 Establishment of international police institutions and methods leading to a 25% reduction in violent crime.

 

 

 

16.3 Legalization of some currently outlawed drugs.

 

 

 

16.4 New technologies used in detecting criminal behavior; new surveillance micro cameras, psychological profiles, etc.

  

 

 

16.5 Probation of rough violence in media in the same way as tobacco advertisements in some countries today

 

 

 

16.6 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.3)

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17. Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free

17.1 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old (See 3.1)

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17.2 Decline of political pluralism, due to industrialization of public opinion building along with business-driven monopolization of media

 

 

 

17.3 Concentration of the media (50% of all TV and newspapers in the hands of three or so firms globally) creates agenda and shapes public opinion

 

 

 

17.4 Technological proliferation and trade accelerates to the point that people in dictatorships become free, de facto.

 

 

 

17.5 Policies to stop terrorism reverse the trend toward democratization in the majority of countries.

 

 

 

17.6 International media increases exposure of totalitarian actions to the point that international pressure for change becomes more effective.

 

 

 

18. School Enrollment, secondary (percentage of school age)

18.1 Tele-citizens; more than 10,000 people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via international tele-commuting (See 8.3)

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18.2 Internet reaches 75% of those between 10-65 years old
(See 3.1)

/////////////

 

 

18.3 Advent of a “teachers without borders” movement (50,000 new teachers in the field)

 

 

 

18.4 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.3)

/////////////

 

 

18.5 Women’s participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today. (See 3.7)

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19. Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

19.1 Elderly labor force: 10% increase among those people older than age 65. (See 7.2)

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19.2 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people. (See 1.3)

/////////////

 

 

19.3 Global economic depression resulting in drop of GDP per capita by 15%. (See 3.3)

/////////////

 

 

19.4 Women’s participation in cash economy increases 15% in areas where GDP/Capita is under $1US today (See 3.7)

////////////

 

 

19.5 Telecommunications and medical informatics enable local general practitioners, medics, and nurses to provide increasingly high quality local services.

 

 

 

19.6 Another pandemic or the scale of HIV/AIDS (See 6.7)

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20. Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons               

20.1 Increasing decision failures of governments due to inability to manage complex systems.

 

 

 

20.2 Stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the US and Russia further reduced by 90%

 

 

 

20.3 Nuclear powers announce refusal to reduce their arsenals

 

 

 

20.4 Democratization accelerates (10% more countries).

 

 

 

20.5 Intransigence by nuclear powers in reducing their arsenal

 

 

 

20.6 Implementation of stronger economic sanctions to limit production and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction

 

 

 

20.7 The world weapons industry being placed under the control of international organizations

 

 

 

20.8 Non proliferation treaty ratified by essentially all countries

 

 

 

20.9 International acknowledgement that security guarantees exist to prevent invasions of smaller states (such as US guarantee for Kuwait) has reduced the incentive for small states to acquire "last resort" retaliatory capabilities.

 

 

 

The results of this second round questionnaire will be used in the calculation of the next State of the Future Index (SOFI). The suggestions for improvement of the 15 Global Challenges collected in the first round questionnaire plus the results of this round will be available in the 2004 State of the Future and send to you in August/September 2004.

Comments:

 

 

 

 

For your information, the following table presents the median value of the responses to the Round 1 questions about the best plausible and worst plausible values of the twenty variables of the State of the Future Index (SOFI) in 2013.

Variable

Historical Values

Best Value

Worst Value

 

1982

2002

2013

2013

Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)

86.7

52.4

30.0

50.0

Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries

2382.0

2740.0

3,000.0

2,775.0

GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)

4,335

5,675

6,525.0

5,700.0

Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)

60.7

80.9

90.0

80.4

CO2 atmospheric, ppm

337.9

367.5

370.0

400.0

Annual population additions (millions)

80.6

73.9

60.0

72.0

Percent unemployed (world)

5.6

7.0

6.0

9.0

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)

64.9

78.0

85.0

80.0

Annual AIDS deaths (millions)

0.00

3.10

2.0

5.0

Life Expectancy (World)

56.8

63.8

70.0

64.0

Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/year)

31

25

15.0

30.0

Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%)

24.7

42.9

35.0

50.0

Forest Lands (Million Hectares)

4087

3897

4,000.0

3,700.0

Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day

2295

2884

2,400.0

3,139.5

Terrorist Attacks- deaths and injuries

739

3361

1,000.0

4,000.0

Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)

1151

1077

900.0

1,175.5

Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free

41.7

35.0

25.0

35.0

School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)

48

69

80.0

70.0

Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)

70.6

97.8

99.0

95.0

Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

14

17

12.0

20.0

 

Thank you very much for your participation in Round 2.  Please email this as an attached file to arrive by 26 May 2004 to acunu@igc.org with a copy to: tedjgordon@att.net and jglenn@igc.org.