Technological Capacity

One or more of the following criteria is used to qualify a development:

  1. A development is a succinct statement about a single potential future occurrence which can be verified in retrospect. For example: "invisibility cloaking at optical wavelengths is demonstrated in the laboratory for objects as large as 6 inches or less"
  2. While different formulations are possible, sentences are written in the present tense, as illustrated above.
  3. Limit of one occurrence per development; otherwise a statement may lead to uncertainty about what is being forecasted. For example, a statement such as: "invisibility cloaking at optical wavelengths is used by the army to camouflage tanks and warfare is revolutionized" is discouraged.

The following is done to enhance the validity of developments:

  • When possible and germane to the study, hyperlinked references will be included
  • Geographic references are included if they improve the precision (and thus the verifiability) of the statement. Example: "The rate of melting of glaciers in the Andes doubles over the rate experienced in 2010" versus "The rate of melting of glaciers doubles over the rate experienced in 2010."
  • The time over which a development occurs will be stated, making retrospective verification more feasible. For example, "The fish population in Lake Happiness drops by half in the next decade" is preferred to "The fish population in Lake Happiness drops by half."

The developments available were collected over the following outlook studies:


Latin America Study

Development Probability Significance
(Eng) Artificial bacteria and algae are used to produce 20% of fuels    
(Esp) Bacterias artificiales y algas se utilizan para producir 20% de los combustibles Average: 49.1 Average: 6.05
(Por) Bactérias e algas artificiais são utilizadas para produzir 20% dos combustíveis fósseis Respondents: 462 Respondents: 385
Massive financial crisis triggers a world depression as large as in the 1930's.     
Una crisis financiera a gran escala provoca una depresión mundial de la magnitud de la de los años 1930s. Average: 50.6 Average: 7.18
A crise financeira em grande escala causou uma depressão global com a mesma magnitude da depressão de 1930. Respondents: 394 Respondents: 379
Most glaciers melt twice as fast as in the decade 2000 - 2009    
La mayoría de los glaciares se derriten al doble de velocidad que en la década 2000-2009 Average: 61.8 Average: 6.80
A maioria das geleiras estão derretendo duas vezes mais rápido do que na década 2000-2009 Respondents: 379 Respondents: 363
Global pandemic kills over one hundred million people    
Una pandemia global aniquila más de cien millones de personas Average: 36.4 Average: 6.60
Uma pandemia global aniquila mais de cem milhões de pessoas Respondents: 376 Respondents: 368
Megawatt levels of power are beamed from solar collectors in orbit to Earth    
A partir de colectores solares situados en órbita se obtiene energía a nivel de megavatios Average: 39.3 Average: 4.85
Energia em nível de megawatts é obtida de coletores solares colocados em órbita Respondents: 349 Respondents: 340
An asteroid or meteorite crashes on Earth and kills millions    
Un asteroide o meteorito impacta sobre la tierra y extermina a millones de personas Average: 19.7 Average: 5.89
Um asteróide ou impactos de meteoritos que caem sobre a Terra matam milhões de pessoas Respondents: 354 Respondents: 340
Renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, provide 50% of the world's power    
Las energías renovables, como la solar o la eólica, proveen el 50% de la energía utilizada en todo el mundo Average: 52.2 Average: 6.50
Energias renováveis como a solar ou eólica fornecem 50% da energia utilizada no mundo Respondents: 365 Respondents: 350
Electric, hydrogen and hybrid cars represent 50% of new vehicles sold    
Los coches eléctricos, de hidrógeno o híbridos representan el 50% de los nuevos vehículos vendidos Average: 61 Average: 6.02
Os carros elétricos, movidos a hidrogênio ou híbridos representam 50% dos veículos novos vendidos Respondents: 359 Respondents: 347
Human genetic manipulation (e.g. designer babies) is accepted in most countries    
La manipulación genética en humanos (p. ej. diseñar la descendencia) es aceptada en la mayoría de países Average: 40.6 Average: 4.61
A manipulação genética humana (por exemplo, bebês projetados) é aceita na maioria dos países Respondents: 349 Respondents: 335
Genetic manipulation (GM) is used in the production of 2/3 of the world's food    
La manipulación genética (MG) es usada en la producción de 2/3 de la producción alimentaria mundial Average: 66.1 Average: 6.85
A manipulação genética é utilizada na produção de 2/3 da produção mundial de alimentos Respondents: 342 Respondents: 336
Wireless electricity transmission from point to point on Earth at gigawatt levels is proven feasible    
La transmisión eléctrica terrestre “wireless” o inalámbrica a niveles de gigavatios es factible Average: 53.6 Average: 6.00
O transmissão elétrica "wireless" terrestre em níveis de gigawatts é viável Respondents: 314 Respondents: 310
Extremists detonate nuclear devices, dirty bombs, or other weapons of mass destruction in Europe or the USA    
Terroristas hacen detonar armas nucleares, bombas caseras u otras armas de destrucción masiva en Europa o Estados Average: 47.3 Average: 5.26
Terroristas detonam armas nucleares, bombas caseiras ou outras armas de destruição em massa na Europa ou nos Estados Unidos. Respondents: 328 Respondents: 322
Long trade wars between China and the USA significantly damage world commerce    
Largas guerras comerciales entre Estados Unidos y China afectan negativamente al comercio mundial Average: 50.5 Average: 6.28
Grandes guerras comerciais entre a China e os Estados Unidos afetam negativamente o comércio mundial Respondents: 332 Respondents: 327
Some European countries fall back to undeveloped status    
Algunos países europeos caen en un estado de subdesarrollo Average: 33 Average: 4.29
Alguns países europeus caem para um estado de subdesenvolvimento Respondents: 329 Respondents: 321
China's use of coal drops to 10% of current levels    
El uso de carbón por parte de China cae un 10% con respecto a los niveles actuales Average: 48.1 Average: 4.05
O uso de carvão na China cai 10% em relação aos níveis atuais Respondents: 310 Respondents: 298
Artificial intelligence reaches the level of human intelligence    
La inteligencia artificial se equipara al nivel de la inteligencia humana Average: 39 Average: 5.15
A inteligência artificial se equipara ao nível de inteligência humana Respondents: 318 Respondents: 304
Essentially all countries guarantee primary and secondary school education    
Esencialmente, todos los países garantizan una educación primaria y secundaria Average: 57.5 Average: 7.27
Todos os países, garantir uma educação primária e secundária essencial Respondents: 315 Respondents: 309
Cybercrime is more difficult to detect and triples in damages from 2010 levels.    
Aumenta la dificultad de detección del ciber-crimen y se triplica con respecto a los niveles de 2010 Average: 61.4 Average: 6.03
Cresce a dificuldade de se detectar a incidência de crimes cibernéticos, os quais triplicam em relação aos índices de 2010 Respondents: 305 Respondents: 300
Computer to brain implants make brain to brain and computer communications possible    
Implantes de hardware en el cerebro posibilitan la comunicación cerebro-cerebro y cerebro-computadora Average: 45 Average: 4.53
Hardwares implantados no cérebro permitem a comunicação cérebro-cérebro e cérebro-computador Respondents: 298 Respondents: 291
Over 40% of all people in the world become vegetarians    
Aproximadamente, el 40% de la población mundial se convierte en vegetariana Average: 33.4 Average: 5.42
Cerca de 40% da população do mundo torna-se vegetariana Respondents: 306 Respondents: 300
Most geo scientists agree that "global warming" was a false alarm    
La mayoría de geo-científicos reconocen que el “calentamiento global” fue una falsa alarma Average: 28.8 Average: 4.16
A maioria dos geo-cientistas reconhecem que o aquecimento global "foi um alarme falso” Respondents: 301 Respondents: 290
OPEC becomes irrelevant and disappears    
La OPEC se convierte en irrelevante y desaparece Average: 45 Average: 5.18
A OPEP se torna irrelevante e desaparece Respondents: 300 Respondents: 290
Nanotechnology accounts for 30% of all manufacturing    
La nanotecnología supone el 30% de todas las tecnologías Average: 59.2 Average: 5.79
A nanotecnologia representa 30% de todas as tecnologias Respondents: 288 Respondents: 282
Middle East oil producing countries successfully diversify beyond energy production (50% of income from sources other than oil)    
Los países productores de petróleo de Oriente Medio diversifican su producción energética de forma exitosa (50% de sus ingresos provienen de fuentes energéticas distintas al petróleo) Average: 44.9 Average: 4.95
Os países produtores de petróleo no Oriente Médio diversificam a sua produção de energia com sucesso (50% de suas receitas provêm de fontes que não sejam do petróleo) Respondents: 294 Respondents: 287
Human migrations at twice today's levels occur from causes such as water shortages    
Migraciones humanas que doblan en magnitud a las actuales se producen debido a causas como la escasez de agua Average: 64.2 Average: 7.03
Migrações humanas alcançam o dobro da magnitude atual devido a causas como a escassez de água Respondents: 296 Respondents: 289
Water scarcity problems are essentially solved (for example, through low cost desalination)    
Se solucionan los problemas derivados de la escasez de agua (por ejemplo, a través de la desalinización a bajo coste) Average: 47.9 Average: 6.23
São resolvidos os problemas de escassez de água (por exemplo, através da dessalinização de baixo custo) Respondents: 290 Respondents: 283
Saudi Arabia is balkanized after, for example, the Saudi royal family collapses or Islamist coup    
Arabia Saudita sufre un proceso de balcanización después de, por ejemplo, un colapso de la familia real o un golpe de estado islamista Average: 41.8 Average: 3.18
A Arábia Saudita sofre um processo de balcanização, depois, por exemplo, de um colapso da família real ou de um golpe islâmico Respondents: 264 Respondents: 261
90% of the world's population over 11 years of age uses Internet    
El 90% de la población mundial mayor de 11 años utiliza Internet Average: 74.3 Average: 7.30
90% da população global com mais de 11 anos de idade utiliza a Internet Respondents: 295 Respondents: 290
Carbon sequestration: 25% of all new carbon production is captured and stored    
Secuestro de carbono: el 25% de todo el carbono emitido es capturado y almacenado Average: 47.3 Average: 5.38
Seqüestro de carbono: 25% de todo o carbono emitido é capturado e armazenado Respondents: 264 Respondents: 259
A post Kyoto Protocol is negotiated and enforced    
Se negocia la entrada en vigor de un protocolo post-Kioto Average: 61.8 Average: 6.20
Negocia-se a entrada em vigor de um Protocolo pós-Quioto Respondents: 275 Respondents: 268
Energy companies are found responsible and sued for previous CO2 emissions    
Las compañías energéticas sufren denuncias y son declaradas culpables de la emisión de CO2 en periodos anteriores Average: 42.1 Average: 4.56
As empresas de energia são denunciadas e declaradas culpadas pelas emissões de CO2 em períodos anteriores Respondents: 278 Respondents: 271
Humans control weather; e.g. rain levels in some areas can be increased by 30%    
Los humanos controlan el clima; p. ej. el nivel de precipitaciones se puede incrementar en un 30% en algunas áreas Average: 39.5 Average: 6.36
Seres humanos podem controlar o tempo; por exemplo, o nível de precipitações pode crescer 30% em algumas áreas Respondents: 284 Respondents: 274
Real-time translation technologies eliminate most language barriers    
Las tecnologías de traducción a tiempo real eliminan la mayoría de las barreras lingüísticas Average: 65.5 Average: 6.43
A tecnologia de tradução em tempo real para eliminar as barreiras lingüísticas mais Respondents: 287 Respondents: 280
Diseases like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and cancer are eliminated everywhere    
Enfermedades como el Alzheimer, el Parkinson y el Cáncer son erradicadas Average: 43.7 Average: 6.22
Doenças como Alzheimer, Parkinson e câncer são erradicadas Respondents: 283 Respondents: 277
A single global currency has been created and circulates in 90 countries    
Se crea una moneda única global que circula en 90 países Average: 34.7 Average: 6.36
É lançada uma moeda mundial única que circula em 90 países Respondents: 289 Respondents: 281
A technological singularity is expected any time soon    
Se espera que aparezca en cualquier momento una singularidad tecnológica  Average: 60 Average: 6.15
Espera-se que apareça a qualquer momento uma singularidade tecnológica Respondents: 253 Respondents: 244
Nuclear weapons proliferate; 30 nations have the bomb    
Las armas nucleares proliferan; 30 países tienen bombas nucleares Average: 51.4 Average: 5.77
As armas nucleares estão proliferando, 30 países possuem bombas nucleares Respondents: 277 Respondents: 271
First cyborgs and post-humans live among unenhanced humans    
Los primeros cyborgs y post-humanos conviven con humanos no aumentados por las tecnologías Average: 32.4 Average: 4.28
O primeiro ciborgues e pós- humanos (incrementados pela tecnologia) convivem com humanos normais Respondents: 275 Respondents: 269
Geo-Political Influence: Argentina    
Influencia Geopolítica: Argentina Average: 41.5 Average: 5.35
Influência Geopolítica: Argentina Respondents: 261 Respondents: 252
Geo-Political Influence: Brazil    
Influencia Geopolítica: Brasil Average: 76.3 Average: 8.00
Influência Geopolítica: Brasil Respondents: 260 Respondents: 254
Geo-Political Influence: China    
Influencia Geopolítica: China Average: 81.2 Average: 7.40
Influência Geopolítica: China Respondents: 256 Respondents: 251
Geo-Political Influence: Colombia    
Influencia Geopolítica: Colombia Average: 36.6 Average: 4.22
Influencia Geopolítica: Colombia Respondents: 252 Respondents: 247
Geo-Political Influence: European Union    
Influencia Geopolítica: Unión Europea Average: 60.7 Average: 5.89
Influência Geopolítica: União Européia Respondents: 253 Respondents: 250
Geo-Political Influence: India    
Influencia Geopolítica: India Average: 65 Average: 5.30
Influência Geopolítica: Índia Respondents: 253 Respondents: 251
Geo-Political Influence: Japan    
Influencia Geopolítica: Japón Average: 47.4 Average: 4.45
Influência Geopolítica: Japão Respondents: 245 Respondents: 243
Geo-Political Influence: Mexico    
Influencia Geopolítica: México Average: 46.3 Average: 4.93
Influência Geopolítica: México Respondents: 249 Respondents: 247
Geo-Political Influence: Middle East    
Influencia Geopolítica: Oriente Medio Average: 38.2 Average: 3.57
Influência Geopolítica: Oriente Médio Respondents: 246 Respondents: 244
Geo-Political Influence: Russia    
Influencia Geopolítica: Rusia Average: 47.9 Average: 4.04
Influência Geopolítica: Rússia Respondents: 247 Respondents: 244
Geo-Political Influence: South Korea    
Influencia Geopolítica: Corea del Sur Average: 41.3 Average: 3.45
Influência Geopolítica: Coréia do Sul Respondents: 239 Respondents: 236
Geo-Political Influence: Sub-Saharan Africa    
Influencia Geopolítica: África Subsahariana Average: 25.4 Average: 2.33
Influência Geopolítica: África Subsaariana Respondents: 239 Respondents: 238
Geo-Political Influence: United States    
Influencia Geopolítica: Estados Unidos de América Average: 57.1 Average: 6.80
Influência Geopolítica: E.U.A. Respondents: 243 Respondents: 242
Geo-Political Influence: Venezuela    
Influencia Geopolítica: Venezuela Average: 32.8 Average: 4.05
Influência Geopolítica: Venezuela Respondents: 240 Respondents: 238
Mexico integrates more with the USA than with rest of Latin America    
México se integra en mayor grado con Estados Unidos que con el resto de Latinoamérica Average: 65.4 Average: 5.66
O México está mais integrado com os Estados Unidos do que com o resto da América Latina Respondents: 244 Respondents: 241
Entrance to the USA is denied to emigrants from Latin America    
Se niega la entrada a Estados Unidos para emigrantes de Latinoamérica Average: 41.3 Average: 6.73
Os Estados Unidos negam a entrada de imigrantes da América Latina Respondents: 242 Respondents: 239
Brazil wins for seventh time the Football (Soccer) World Cup    
Brasil gana por séptima vez la Copa Mundial de Fútbol Average: 68.3 Average: 3.09
O Brasil vence pela sétima vez a Copa do Mundo Respondents: 224 Respondents: 225
Latin America becomes the world leading producer of biofuels    
Latinoamérica se convierte en el primer productor mundial de biocombustibles Average: 60.3 Average: 7.40
A América Latina torna-se o maior produtor mundial de bicombustíveis Respondents: 245 Respondents: 243
Hugo Chavez consolidates his power in other countries beyond Venezuela    
Hugo Chávez consolida su poder en otros países además de Venezuela Average: 24.4 Average: 6.13
Hugo Chávez consolida seu poder em outros países além da Venezuela Respondents: 244 Respondents: 240
Most Latin American countries unite following the European Union model    
La mayoría de los países latinoamericanos se unen siguiendo el modelo de la Unión Europea Average: 47.7 Average: 7.73
A maioria dos países da América Latina se unem seguindo o modelo da União Européia Respondents: 246 Respondents: 242
At least two Latin American countries are split by indigenous ethnic conflicts    
Por lo menos dos países latinoamericanos sufren un proceso de secesión a partir de conflictos entre etnias indígenas Average: 37.2 Average: 5.30
Pelo menos dois países latino-americanos passam por um processo de secessão em virtude de conflitos entre etnias indígenas Respondents: 240 Respondents: 239
Orinoco Heavy Oil in Venezuela becomes the world's largest new source of energy    
La Cuenca del Orinoco en Venezuela se convierte en la mayor fuente de energía del mundo Average: 36.1 Average: 5.97
A bacia do Orenoco, na Venezuela, passa a ser a principal fonte de energia no mundo Respondents: 236 Respondents: 233
Castro's government survives him in Cuba    
El régimen de Fidel Castro perdura en Cuba mucho tiempo después de su muerte Average: 35.8 Average: 4.22
O regime de Fidel Castro em Cuba resiste por muito tempo após sua morte Respondents: 238 Respondents: 237
Guerrilla movements overtake at least two governments in the region (as was attempted in Colombia)    
Movimientos guerrilleros toman al menos dos gobiernos en la región (como se intentó en Colombia) Average: 31.1 Average: 5.50
Movimentos guerrilheiros assumem pelo menos dois governos da região (como aconteceu no caso da Colômbia) Respondents: 239 Respondents: 238
Latin American brain drain is reversed    
Se invierte la tendencia de la fuga de cerebros desde Latinoamérica Average: 45.9 Average: 7.30
Reverte-se a tendência de “fuga de cérebros” da América Latina Respondents: 237 Respondents: 234
Homicide and kidnapping rates in Latin America become the worst in the world    
Las tasas de homicidios y secuestros en Latinoamérica se convierten en las más altas del mundo Average: 54.1 Average: 7.15
As taxas de homicídios e seqüestros na América Latina torna-se a mais alta do mundo Respondents: 235 Respondents: 233
A common tax and legal system is implemented throughout Latin America    
Se implementa un sistema fiscal y legal común en toda Latinoamérica Average: 31.3 Average: 7.10
Um sistema jurídico e fiscal comum a toda a América Latina é implantado Respondents: 237 Respondents: 235
Free, wireless, broadband networks connect all major Latin American cities    
Redes de acceso gratuito wireless o inalámbricas conectan las mayores ciudades de Latinoamérica Average: 63.4 Average: 7.50
Redes gratuitas "wireless" (ou sem fio) conectam as principais cidades da América Latina Respondents: 239 Respondents: 238
Brazil and Mexico subdivide into smaller nations    
Brasil y México se dividen en naciones menores Average: 15.3 Average: 6.15
Brasil e México dividem-se em nações menores Respondents: 240 Respondents: 239
At least one Latin American country permanently joins the United Nations Security Council    
Al menos un país latinoamericano se incorpora de forma permanente al Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas Average: 70.5 Average: 5.96
Pelo menos um país latino-americano é incorporado ao Conselho de Segurança das Nações Unidas Respondents: 238 Respondents: 238
Regional electricity networks connect the whole continent    
Las redes eléctricas regionales conectan el continente en su totalidad Average: 58.4 Average: 7.13
As redes elétricas regionais conectam o continente em sua totalidade Respondents: 233 Respondents: 231
Latin American cartels for energy and raw materials are formed    
Se forman cárteles latinoamericanos de energía y de materias primas Average: 55.3 Average: 6.63
Formam-se cartéis latino-americanos de energia e de matérias-primas Respondents: 231 Respondents: 226
The Amazon forest recovers and deforestation is reversed    
La selva amazónica se recupera y la deforestación cesa Average: 42.2 Average: 7.17
A floresta amazônica se recupera e cessa o desmatamento Respondents: 241 Respondents: 239
Most Latin American countries eliminate armies following Costa Rican example    
La mayoría de países latinoamericanos eliminan sus ejércitos siguiendo el ejemplo de Costa Rica Average: 23.9 Average: 6.66
A maioria dos países latino-americanos eliminam os seus exércitos, seguindo o exemplo da Costa Rica Respondents: 238 Respondents: 236
Glaciers in the Andes mountains are reduced by 75% compared to 2000    
Los glaciares de los Andes se reducen en un 75% con respecto a los niveles del año 2000 Average: 61 Average: 7.01
As geleiras dos Andes são reduzidas em 75% comparadas aos níveis do ano 2000 Respondents: 230 Respondents: 225
"Made in Latin America" becomes symbol of quality and technology    
”Made in Latin America” se convierte en un símbolo de calidad y tecnología Average: 37.5 Average: 7.54
A rotulagem " made in América Latina " torna-se um símbolo de qualidade e tecnologia Respondents: 238 Respondents: 239
Latin America countries retreat from globalization and establish barriers that are designed to protect their markets    
Los países latinoamericanos se retiran del proceso globalizador y establecen barreras diseñadas para proteger sus mercados Average: 37.5 Average: 7.26
Os países latino-americanos retiram-se do processo de globalização e estabelecem barreiras destinadas a proteger os seus mercados Respondents: 237 Respondents: 236
Conflicts over water ownership have occurred (e.g. among Bolivia, Chile and Peru)    
Se producen conflictos sobre la propiedad del agua (p. ej. entre Bolivia, Chile y Perú) Average: 60.3 Average: 6.72
Deflagram-se conflitos pela propriedade da água (por exemplo, entre Bolívia, Chile e Peru) Respondents: 235 Respondents: 235
Tourism increases five fold from 2010 levels (includig eco-tourism)    
El turismo se incrementa por cinco con respecto a los niveles de 2010 (incluyendo el eco-turismo) Average: 64.9 Average: 7.37
A indústria do turismo cresce mais de cinco vezes em relação a 2010 (incluindo o eco-turismo) Respondents: 240 Respondents: 237
Food prices double in real terms (for example, from production of crop-based fuels)    
Los precios de los alimentos se incrementan por dos en términos reales     
(p. ej. desde la generalización de la producción de combustibles a partir de plantaciones de grano) Average: 63.3 Average: 7.67
O aumento do preço dos alimentos em termos reais por dois Respondents: 230 Respondents: 228
(por exemplo, desde a disseminação da produção de combustível a partir de plantios de milho)  
Women become presidents of a third of Latin American countries    
Un tercio de los países de Latinoamérica son presididos por mujeres Average: 61.9 Average: 5.11
Um terço dos países latino-americanos são liderados por mulheres Respondents: 235 Respondents: 234
A single regional currency has been proposed and accepted by most countries in Latin America.    
Se implanta una moneda única a nivel regional para la mayoría de países latinoamericanos Average: 45 Average: 7.11
Uma moeda única é introduzida em nível regional, integrando a maioria dos países latino-americanos Respondents: 238 Respondents: 236
Latin American Space Agency launches two astronauts to the Moon    
La Agencia Espacial Latinoamericana envía dos astronautas a la Luna Average: 28.2 Average: 4.20
A Agência Espacial da America Latina envia dois astronautas à Lua Respondents: 233 Respondents: 231
Regional organized crime is more powerful than some Latin American governments    
El crimen organizado a nivel regional es más poderoso que algunos gobiernos latinoamericanos Average: 60.9 Average: 7.54
O crime organizado em nível regional é mais poderoso do que alguns governos latino-americanos Respondents: 239 Respondents: 237
There are five domains on which scenarios are often based (STEEP: society, technology, economics, environment and politics).    
Existen cinco ámbitos en los que se suelen basar los escenarios (STEEP: sociedad, tecnología, economía, ecología y política).    
Há cinco áreas em que geralmente os cenários são baseados(STEEP: sociedade, tecnologia, economia, ecologia e política).    
  Average: 84.4 Average: 8.45
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to SOCIETY in our scenarios. Respondents: 234 Respondents: 229
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la SOCIEDAD en nuestros escenarios.    
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à SOCIEDADE na criação desses cenários    
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to TECHNOLOGY in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la TECNOLOGÍA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 84.5 Average: 8.14
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à TECNOLOGIA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 234 Respondents: 229
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to ECONOMICS in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la ECONOMÍA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 81.2 Average: 8.12
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à ECONOMIA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 227 Respondents: 226
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to ENVIRONMENT in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la ECOLOGÍA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 82.6 Average: 8.13
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à ECOLOGIA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 229 Respondents: 225
Considering the next 20 years please give us your judgments about the priority that should be accorded to POLITICS in our scenarios.    
Por favor, considerando los próximos 20 años, exprese sus opiniones sobre la prioridad que debería de concederse a la POLÍTICA en nuestros escenarios. Average: 74.2 Average: 7.64
Considere os próximos 20 anos e dê sua opinião sobre a prioridade que deve ser dada à POLÍTICA na criação desses cenários Respondents: 231 Respondents: 227

Report on Studies of Future Developments Important to World Water

Development Probability by 2020 Probability by 2030 Importance to Scenarios
Alternative water distribution systems are installed in all large cities to address eventual disaster (intentional, accidental, or natural) that might affect water infrastructure.       
Average: 23.35  Average: 39.02  Average: 7.76 
Respondents: 26  Respondents: 27  Respondents: 25 
     
Use of limited weather control technologies to bring rain to a selected place at a selected time.      
Average: 38.85  Average: 54.04  Average: 7.54 
Respondents: 26  Respondents: 26  Respondents: 26 
     
Weather forecasting models are able to give accurate predictions 2 weeks in advance.      
Average: 54.38  Average: 72.04  Average: 8.25 
Respondents: 26  Respondents: 26  Respondents: 24 
     
Agriculturists using an affordable technology capture real-time data about their crops and soil moisture to make informed decisions on efficient watering schedules.       
Average: 53.60  Average: 74.08  Average: 8.80 
Respondents: 25  Respondents: 25  Respondents: 25 
     
Evaporation control technologies spread widely; their use doubles.      
Average: 54.29  Average: 70.71  Average: 8.65 
Respondents: 21  Respondents: 21  Respondents: 20 
     
A new technology for transport of water from abundant areas to needy areas proves practical.      
Average: 32.69  Average: 45.44  Average: 7.46 
Respondents: 26  Respondents: 25  Respondents: 24 
     
Satellites continuously monitor globally the functioning and operation of water infrastructure (e.g. leakage from dams and canals).      
Average: 49.37  Average: 67.40  Average: 8.08 
Respondents: 27  Respondents: 25  Respondents: 25 
     
Deep penetrating radar of the sort developed by NASA for Mars exploration is routinely used to find deep terrestrial water deposits.      
Average: 40.00  Average: 61.09  Average: 7.00 
Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22 
     
Availability and use of deep underground sensors that track water movements and quality.      
Average: 26.72  Average: 45.74  Average: 7.26 
Respondents: 23  Respondents: 23  Respondents: 23 
     
Anticipated crop yield based on soil conditions, water stress and other agricultural factors are computer-derived from satellite data or other sources and are used by 75% of all farmers in the world.      
Average: 27.21  Average: 52.63  Average: 8.21 
Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19 
     
Advanced Geographic Information Systems (GIS) facilitate improved reporting on agricultural production, insect infestations, agricultural water quantity and quality, and pollution in real-time and this information is distributed to farmers including subsistence farmers in forms they can afford and use.      
Average: 29.72  Average: 52.39  Average: 8.41 
Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22 
     
Technologies for water desalination in large volumes become so inexpensive that nearly all people within 100 miles of coastlines have water for their needs.      
Average: 22.36  Average: 44.40  Average: 9.12 
Respondents: 25  Respondents: 25  Respondents: 25 
     
Use of renewable including nuclear energy sources in 75% of all desalination applications.      
Average: 32.00  Average: 53.00  Average: 7.83 
Respondents: 25  Respondents: 25  Respondents: 23 
     
Simple solar stills are used by half of all communities with appropriate conditions to produce fresh drinking water in water-scarce poor countries.      
Average: 25.32  Average: 44.59  Average: 7.91 
Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22 
     
Economically viable nanotechnology (such as carbon nanotubes) yields new and effective membranes and catalysts useful in desalination and pollution control (e.g. removing heavy metal and other dissolved pollutants from water).      
Average: 44.58  Average: 71.83  Average: 8.92 
Respondents: 24  Respondents: 24  Respondents: 24 
     
Nanotechnology sensors for detection of impurities in water have become cost-effective and routinely used around the world.       
Average: 42.17  Average: 65.78  Average: 8.48 
Respondents: 23  Respondents: 23  Respondents: 21 
     
Concerns over potential health and environmental effects of nanotechnology significantly delay its development.       
Average: 19.18  Average: 18.95  Average: 6.64 
Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22  Respondents: 22 
     
Nanowaste material is regulated as hazardous waste.      
Average: 34.26  Average: 37.11  Average: 6.89 
Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19 
     
Improved understanding of the quantum world (e.g. Higgs Boson particles, super symmetry, etc.) leads to great improvements in combinatorial chemistry, combinatorial biology, and material science.      
Average: 28.65  Average: 46.06  Average: 6.67 
Respondents: 17  Respondents: 17  Respondents: 18 
     
Rainwater harvesting is practiced widely and new simple and cheap ways of purifying the collected water become available.      
Average: 54.42  Average: 74.38  Average: 8.91 
Respondents: 24  Respondents: 24  Respondents: 23 
     
Green credits policies promoting technology transfer to developing countries greatly improves access to water.      
Average: 29.12  Average: 39.71  Average: 7.06 
Respondents: 17  Respondents: 17  Respondents: 17 
     
Use of graphine or other super slick materials in water transmission pipes to reduce drag and thereby improve efficiency.      
Average: 24.12  Average: 41.47  Average: 7.18 
Respondents: 17  Respondents: 17  Respondents: 17 
     
Coastal or inland saline sites use salt tolerant plants which produce 10% of the world's food and biofuel.      
Average: 33.29  Average: 49.43  Average: 8.43 
Respondents: 21  Respondents: 21  Respondents: 21 
     
Use of coastal or inland saline sites for halophyte agriculture generates at least 10% of world crops for human or animal consumption or biofuels.      
Average: 35.29  Average: 51.47  Average: 7.93 
Respondents: 17  Respondents: 17  Respondents: 15 
     
GMO widely used and essentially all countries that have banned GMO foods reverse the bans.      
Average: 29.21  Average: 44.11  Average: 7.53 
Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19 
     
Greatly expanded acceptance of vegetable-based meat substitutes which capture 10% of the animal meat market with improved taste and texture and by reducing the levels of allergies, acids, and phytoestrogens.      
Average: 41.89  Average: 60.47  Average: 8.42 
Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19  Respondents: 19 
     
Cultured meat cells as a substitute to growing animals for meat captures 10% of the meat market with improved culture media, good cell lines, and automated tissue engineering processes being key.      
Average: 21.69  Average: 33.50  Average: 5.93 
Respondents: 16  Respondents: 16  Respondents: 15 
     
The $1,000,000 prize offered by PETA is won: commercially available cultured meat at a competitive price.      
Average: 38.64  Average: 52.71  Average: 5.23 
Respondents: 14  Respondents: 14  Respondents: 13 
     
Rapid growth tree varieties are routinely used in critical deforested areas (e.g. Brazil, China, and Indonesia) or deserts (e.g. Sahara project).       
Average: 38.63  Average: 56.63  Average: 7.69 
Respondents: 16  Respondents: 16  Respondents: 16 
     
One billion of the largest water consumers use products designed to conserve water, including pressure-reducing valves, horizontal-axis clothes washers, water-efficient dishwashers, grey water recycling systems, low-flush tank toilets, low-flow urinals, and waterless urinals.      
Average: 50.65  Average: 76.74  Average: 9.65 
Respondents: 23  Respondents: 23  Respondents: 23 
     
At least one geo-engineering technique for controlling greenhouse gas emissions is implemented. In providing your reasons, please tell us which system you envision as being in place.      
Average: 39.65  Average: 58.00  Average: 8.35 
Respondents: 17  Respondents: 18  Respondents: 17 
     
Water sensors and warning systems are deployed at important water systems to counter bioterrorism.      
Average: 40.22  Average: 64.57  Average: 8.05 
Respondents: 23  Respondents: 23  Respondents: 22 
     
A 'Water Situation Room' is created as a repository for collective intelligence on water.      
Average: 43.67  Average: 63.00  Average: 7.67 
Respondents: 15  Respondents: 15  Respondents: 15 
     
Availability of a water footprint measure, published widely on an annual basis (e.g. in 2030, the ecological footprint is expected to be around 2 planets Earth)       
Average: 53.61  Average: 73.67  Average: 8.35 
Respondents: 18  Respondents: 18  Respondents: 17 
     
Variable: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (billion cubic meters)      
Average: 2,674.17  Average: 4,364.50  Average: 8.22 
Respondents: 6  Respondents: 6  Respondents: 9 
     
Variable: Number of countries experiencing severe water scarcity.      
Average: 42.83  Average: 69.17  Average: 9.92 
Respondents: 12  Respondents: 12  Respondents: 13 
     
Variable: Improved access to potable water sources (% of population with access)      
Average: 83.36  Average: 76.43  Average: 9.86 
Respondents: 14  Respondents: 14  Respondents: 14 
     
Variable: Percentage of water for industrial use.      
Average: 23.50  Average: 34.80  Average: 8.92 
Respondents: 10  Respondents: 10  Respondents: 13 
     
Variable: Percent of water "saved" through virtual water trade between nations      
Average: 35.11  Average: 45.00  Average: 8.00 
Respondents: 9  Respondents: 9  Respondents: 9 
     
Variable: Percentage of urban water and sanitation systems privately owned      
Average: 15.19  Average: 20.44  Average: 7.38 
Respondents: 16  Respondents: 16  Respondents: 16 
     

The 2008 State of the Future Index for the Republic of Korea with Implications for National Policy

  Export volume Days lost per year due to labor strikes (days per 1,000 workers) GNI per capita($) Improved water source (percent of population with access) Carbon dioxide emissions (metric tons per capita) Fertility rate (children per woman over her lifetime) Percent unemployment Corruption (percent of survey reporting no bribery) S Korean income disparity between rich and poor Patents per year (number) R&D expenditures by government and private sector (percent of GDP) Energy consumption per GDP (metric tons oil equivalent/million $) Seats held by women in parliaments (percent) Dependency on foreign energy sources (percent of energy consumed)
[Unit: 1000$] (CPI/score) (Gini)
1985 30,283,122 97 2309 66.6 6.28 1.67 4 8.14 0.223 22703 1.674 627.19 2.53 76.2
1986 34,714,470 97 2643 68.6 6.46 1.6 3.8 7.79 0.232 23746 1.732 539.63 2.53 78.2
1987 47,280,927 97 3321 71 6.64 1.55 3.1 7.42 0.24 26260 1.789 466.98 2.53 80
1988 60,696,388 97 4435 74.1 6.81 1.56 2.5 7.04 0.248 27774 1.84 375.95 2.01 83.2
1989 62,377,174 97 5418 77.7 6.99 1.58 2.6 6.65 0.256 34824 1.89 358.61 2.01 85.5
1990 65,015,731 97 6147 78.5 7.17 1.59 2.4 6.27 0.262 37717 1.87 357.61 2.01 87.9
1991 71,870,122 97 7105 80.1 7.34 1.74 2.4 5.9 0.269 37599 1.92 348.81 2.01 91.3
1992 76,631,515 97 7527 80 7.52 1.78 2.5 5.55 0.275 43933 2.03 355.16 1.34 93.6
1993 82,235,866 97 8177 81.1 7.69 1.67 2.9 5.22 0.281 43525 2.22 352.73 1.34 94.8
1994 96,013,237 97 9459 82 7.87 1.67 2.5 4.92 0.285 39104 2.44 318.15 1.34 96.4
1995 125,057,988 91 11432 82.9 8.05 1.65 2.1 4.29 0.284 46797 2.37 292.21 1.34 96.8
1996 129,715,137 96 12197 83.6 8.22 1.58 2 5.02 0.291 46656 2.42 310.91 3.68 97.3
1997 136,164,204 94 11176 84.5 9.01 1.54 2.6 4.29 0.283 67117 2.48 520.51 3.68 97.6
1998 132,313,143 119 7355 85.2 7.84 1.47 7 4.2 0.316 84542 2.34 413.99 3.68 97.1
1999 143,685,459 109 9438 86.1 8.51 1.42 6.3 3.8 0.32 52604 2.25 392.32 3.68 97.2
2000 172,267,510 144 10841 87.1 9.1 1.47 4.1 4 0.317 49694 2.39 419.9 6.35 97.2
2001 150,439,144 79 10160 87.8 9.31 1.3 3.8 4.2 0.319 52333 2.59 422.92 6.35 97.3
2002 162,470,528 111 11499 88.7 9.29 1.17 3.1 4.5 0.312 67823 2.53 366.01 6.35 97.1
2003 193,817,443 90 12717 89.4 9.45 1.19 3.4 4.3 0.306 74403 2.63 355.48 6.35 96.9
2004 253,844,672 81 14206 90.1 9.61 1.16 3.5 4.5 0.31 82113 2.85 294.96 13.38 96.7
2005 284,418,743 97 16413 90.7 9.81 1.08 3.5 5 0.31 77209 2.99 285.74 13.38 96.8
2006 325,464,848 96 18372 89.8 9.98 1.13 3.3 5.1 0.351 79985 2.883 322.862 13.38 96.255
2007 312,060,564 95 16212 90.3 10.16 1.12 3.48 5.47 0.334 82761 2.941 318.178 14.983 95.896
2008 336,709,651 95 16822 90.9 10.34 1.11 3.45 5.82 0.337 85537 2.998 313.631 16.562 95.485
2009 362,450,990 94 17432 91.5 10.51 1.09 3.41 6.18 0.341 88313 3.056 309.214 18.181 95.023
2010 389,284,580 93 18042 92.1 10.69 1.08 3.36 6.56 0.345 91089 3.113 304.922 19.832 94.51
2011 417,210,422 92 18652 92.8 10.87 1.07 3.31 6.95 0.348 93864 3.171 300.749 21.506 93.946
2012 446,228,515 91 19262 93.6 11.04 1.06 3.25 7.33 0.352 96640 3.229 296.691 23.193 93.331
2013 476,338,860 91 19872 94.4 11.22 1.05 3.18 7.71 0.356 99416 3.286 292.743 24.885 92.666
2014 507,541,457 90 20482 95.2 11.39 1.04 3.11 8.06 0.359 102192 3.344 288.9 26.571 91.949
2015 539,836,305 89 21092 96.2 11.57 1.02 3.03 8.39 0.363 104968 3.401 285.159 28.243 91.182
2016 573,223,405 88 21702 97.2 11.75 1.01 2.95 8.68 0.367 107743 3.459 281.514 29.892 90.364
2017 607,702,756 87 22312 98.4 11.92 1 2.86 8.94 0.37 110519 3.516 277.964 31.508 89.496

Data Summary Report: Peru Electricity Study

Developments Probability of Developments Impact of Developments Relevence to Public Policy
Desarrollo: por 2018 : Incremento relevante ( p. e. 25%) de reservas probadas de petróleo en el mundo explotables comercialmente Average: 50.17 Average: 6.33 Average: 6.54
  Respondents: 88 Respondents: 90 Respondents: 89
Development: by 2018 : A significant increase (e.g. 25%) of proven reserves of commercially exploitable oil      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Incremento relevante (p.e. 25%) de reservas probadas de gas natural en el mundo explotables comercialmente Average: 59.86 Average: 7.18 Average: 6.94
  Respondents: 86 Respondents: 85 Respondents: 83
Development: by 2018 : A significant increase (e.g. 25%) of proven reserves of commercially exploitable natural gas      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Desarrollo comercial de tecnologías que pueden reducir significativamente (p.e. 50%) emisiones de CO2 por generación eléctrica usando carbon Average: 54.53 Average: 7.84 Average: 7.54
  Respondents: 86 Respondents: 85 Respondents: 85
Development: by 2018 : Development of commercially viable technologies that can significantly reduce (50%) CO2 emissions by coal fired power generation plants.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se incrementa el uso de carbón en al menos 15% para el uso de generación eléctrica por incremento del costo del petróleo y gas Average: 53.95 Average: 6.32 Average: 6.28
  Respondents: 83 Respondents: 80 Respondents: 80
Development: by 2018 :The use of coal increases by at least 15% in electricity generation as a result of increasing the cost of oil and gas.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Desarrollos tecnológicos y logísticos abaratan costo de licuefacción, transporte y regasificación de gas natural en al menos 15% Average: 64.80 Average: 6.85 Average: 6.01
  Respondents: 80 Respondents: 79 Respondents: 77
Development: by 2018 : Logistical and technological developments reduce the cost of liquefaction, regasification, and transportation of the natural gas by at least 15%      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Nuevas tecnologías de conservación y distribución reduce la demanda residencial de electricidad per capita en al menos 5% Average: 64.17 Average: 6.51 Average: 7.21
  Respondents: 82 Respondents: 77 Respondents: 78
Development: by 2018 : New conservation and distribution technologies reduce residential electricity demand per capita by at least 5%.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Políticas ambientales más agresivas se van realizando como resultado de un continuo incremento emisiones de CO2 y gases de efecto invernadero Average: 73.76 Average: 7.58 Average: 8.09
  Respondents: 82 Respondents: 81 Respondents: 80
Development: by 2018 More aggressive environmental policies are introduced as a result of continued increases of CO2 emissions and greenhouse gases      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La mayoría de los países introducen estrictas sanciones adicionales (incluyendo fuertes multas, impuestos, y sanciones penales) por contaminación Average: 68.67 Average: 7.42 Average: 8.08
  Respondents: 80 Respondents: 79 Respondents: 78
Development: by 2018 : Most countries introduce stringent additional penalties (including significant fines, taxation, and criminal penalties) for pollution.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se acelera desarrollo comercial de tecnologías limpias de generación Average: 74.47 Average: 7.54 Average: 7.58
  Respondents: 80 Respondents: 79 Respondents: 76
Development: by 2018 : Acceleration of the commercial development of clean technologies for generation      
Desarrollo: para 2018 El mercado de bonos de carbono se convierte en un importante mecanismo de financiamiento para proyectos de generación hidroeléctrica Average: 61.43 Average: 6.61 Average: 7.21
  Respondents: 75 Respondents: 72 Respondents: 72
Development: by 2018 The sale of carbon credits becomes an important funding mechanism for generating hydroelectric projects      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Radicalismos políticos y/o religiosos confluyen en países productores relevantes motivando restricciones en la producción de petróleo y/o gas (reducción de al menos 10% en un año en países afectados) afectados) Average: 56.53 Average: 7.38 Average: 6.21
  Respondents: 75 Respondents: 76 Respondents: 71
Development: by 2018 : Radical political and/or religious movements converge in relevant oil producing countries causing a restriction of oil production (1 year, 10% reduction in affected countries).      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Los conflictos políticos en las regiones productoras de petróleo hace incierto el suministro de ese insumo y su precio sigue subiendo en respuesta a esos conflictos Average: 63.63 Average: 7.71 Average: 6.52
  Respondents: 81 Respondents: 82 Respondents: 77
Development: by 2018 : Political conflicts in oil producing regions makes the supply uncertain and oil prices rise in response to these conflicts      
Desarrollo: para 2028 : Los combustibles fósiles (petróleo, gas y carbón) sean la fuente de menos del 70% de la electricidad generada a nivel mundial Average: 59.78 Average: 7.42 Average: 7.30
  Respondents: 78 Respondents: 77 Respondents: 76
Development: by 2028 : Fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) are the energy source for at least 70% of global electricity      
Desarrollo: para 2028 : El uso de tecnologías limpias para generar electricidad, crezca a un ritmo al menos tres veces mayor que el uso de combustibles fósiles Average: 65.06 Average: 7.56 Average: 7.60
  Respondents: 80 Respondents: 80 Respondents: 78
Development: by 2028 : The use of clean technologies to generate electricity grows at a rate at least three times higher than growth in the rate of use of fossil fuels      
Desarrollo: para 2028 : Se han logrado producir sintéticamente o biológicamente sustitutos más baratos del petróleo, y son usados para el 5% de la oferta Average: 62.37 Average: 7.36 Average: 7.35
  Respondents: 78 Respondents: 77 Respondents: 75
Development: by 2028 : Cheap oil substitutes have been produced synthetically or through biological processes and are used for 5% of supply      
Desarrollo: para 2028 :Nuevas fuentes de energía desarrolladas como combustible para el transporte, propician mayor disponibilidad de combustibles fósiles (petróleo, gas natural) para generación eléctrica Average: 53.72 Average: 7.03 Average: 6.81
  Respondents: 75 Respondents: 74 Respondents: 72
Development: by 2028 : New energy sources developed as a fuel for transportation, encourage greater availability of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas) for electricity generation      
Desarrollo: para 2028 Es económicamente viable la transmisión de electricidad a distancias mayores a 10,000 km Average: 49.46 Average: 6.97 Average: 6.38
  Respondents: 71 Respondents: 68 Respondents: 69
Development: by 2028 : Transmission of electricity for distances greater than 10000 km becomes economically viable      
Desarrollo: para 2028 : La energía eléctrica puede almacenarse (p.e. baterías o celdas) en grandes cantidades y transportarse con la facilidad suficiente para ser económicamente viable Average: 52.07 Average: 7.44 Average: 6.22
  Respondents: 73 Respondents: 71 Respondents: 68
Development: by 2028 : Electricity can be stored in large quantities (batteries or cells) and transported with enough ease to be economically competitive      
Desarrollo: para 2028 : La mitad o mas de la mitad de la electricidad se produce en el lugar de su consume Average: 46.83 Average: 7.93 Average: 7.00
  Respondents: 71 Respondents: 71 Respondents: 68
Development: by 2028 : Half or more of all electricity is produced in the place of consumption      
Desarrollo: para 2028 : La transmisión inalámbrica de electricidad a niveles de kilowatt es técnicamente viable Average: 39.63 Average: 7.26 Average: 6.16
  Respondents: 67 Respondents: 65 Respondents: 64
Development: by 2028 : The wireless transmission of electricity at kilowatt levels is technically feasible.      
Desarrollo: para 2028 : Nuevas formas de energía se han desarrollado para reemplazar el uso de la electricidad en 5% de sus usos actuales o en nuevos usos Average: 64.34 Average: 6.90 Average: 6.51
  Respondents: 73 Respondents: 71 Respondents: 69
Development: by 2028 : New forms of energy have been developed to replace the use of electricity in 5% of current and new uses      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Interconexiones y comercialización significativa de electricidad (10% de toda la generación) entre países sudamericanos Average: 57.22 Average: 6.72 Average: 7.93
  Respondents: 45 Respondents: 43 Respondents: 41
Development: by 2018 : Interconnections permit significant electricity trade (10% of all generation) between South American countries      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La existencia de países políticamente inestables en Sudamérica, inhibe la inversión extranjera en hidroenergía en los demás países de la region Average: 51.63 Average: 7.12 Average: 7.08
  Respondents: 46 Respondents: 43 Respondents: 40
Development: by 2018 : The existence of politically unstable countries in South America, inhibits foreign investment in hydropower in other countries in the region      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se logran acuerdos estables y políticas complementarias entre países sudamericanos que facilitan la comercialización de electricidad y de insumos para generación eléctrica Average: 59.56 Average: 7.68 Average: 8.07
  Respondents: 45 Respondents: 41 Respondents: 40
Development: by 2018 : Stable agreements and complementary policies are achieved among South American countries that facilitate the trade of electricity and supplies for electricity generation      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se desarrollan nuevos esquemas de financiamiento para el desarrollo de proyectos energéticos con participación de organismos financieros regionales Average: 66.05 Average: 7.56 Average: 7.69
  Respondents: 43 Respondents: 41 Respondents: 39
Development: by 2018 : New financing schemes involving regional financial organizations have been developed for energy projects      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El PBI de la región sudamericana en promedio continúa creciendo por encima del 3% anual y existe una demanda creciente de electricidad en la mayoría de países Average: 80.50 Average: 7.75 Average: 7.35
  Respondents: 42 Respondents: 40 Respondents: 37
Development: by 2018 : The South American region GDP continues to grow on average by over 3% per annum and there is a growing demand for electricity in most countries      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : En la mayoría de países de la región el abastecimiento de energía eléctrica es insuficiente, inseguro y mas caro que el promedio internacional Average: 52.56 Average: 7.97 Average: 7.00
  Respondents: 41 Respondents: 40 Respondents: 36
Development: by 2018 : In most countries of the region, the supply of electricity is inadequate, insecure and more expensive than the international average      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La generación eléctrica en Sudamérica es ineficiente comparado con los estándares internacionales Average: 55.24 Average: 7.53 Average: 6.61
  Respondents: 41 Respondents: 38 Respondents: 36
Development: by 2018 : Electricity generated in the South American region is inefficient compared with international averages      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Inversión en generación eléctrica en America del Sur suficiente para garantizar cobertura de la demanda y un parque generador moderno y eficiente Average: 58.29 Average: 8.03 Average: 7.68
  Respondents: 42 Respondents: 40 Respondents: 37
Development: by 2018 : Investment in electricity generation in South America is sufficient to ensure coverage of demand and a modern and efficient generating capacity      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La seguridad y eficiencia en la provisión de energía eléctrica se constituye en una ventaja de Perú para atraer inversión extranjera en manufactura Average: 69.02 Average: 8.23 Average: 8.06
  Respondents: 41 Respondents: 39 Respondents: 36
Development: by 2018 : Security and efficiency in electric energy supply becomes a big advantage in attracting International investments in production.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La política pública de largo plazo para el sector eléctrico ha sido explícita y ha recibido el soporte del Estado Average: 60.51 Average: 8.08 Average: 8.34
  Respondents: 39 Respondents: 37 Respondents: 35
Development: by 2018 : Long term public policies for the electrical sector have been explicit, and have received the government support.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Ha habido y hay, vacíos, contradicciones y cambios significativos en las reglas de juego para el sector electric Average: 56.92 Average: 8.11 Average: 7.69
  Respondents: 39 Respondents: 36 Respondents: 36
Development: by 2018 : There have been and there are gaps, inconsistencies and changes in the rules and regulation for the electricity sector      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La orientación general de la política pública fue promover la generación eléctrica en base a gas natural Average: 56.25 Average: 7.08 Average: 7.73
  Respondents: 40 Respondents: 38 Respondents: 37
Development: by 2018 :The general orientation of public policies is to promote electric generation using natural gas      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La orientación general de la política pública fue promover la generación hidroeléctrica Average: 61.27 Average: 7.68 Average: 7.88
  Respondents: 37 Respondents: 37 Respondents: 34
Development: by 2018 : The general orientation of the public policies is to promote the hydropower generation.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La política pública para promover la generación con gas natural, logra que al 2018 más del 40% de la electricidad provenga de esa fuente Average: 57.18 Average: 7.00 Average: 7.42
  Respondents: 39 Respondents: 38 Respondents: 36
Development: by 2018 : Public policies to promote the electricity generation using natural gas are successful and more than 40% of the electricity comes from this source of energy.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La política pública para promover la hidro energía, logra que al 2018 más del 60% de la electricidad provenga de esa fuente Average: 61.89 Average: 7.89 Average: 7.79
  Respondents: 37 Respondents: 36 Respondents: 34
Development: by 2018 :Public policies to promote hydropower are successful and more than 60 % of the electricity comes from this source of energy      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Al 2018, las políticas públicas para el sector mantienen neutralidad respecto de la fuente y/o tecnología de generación, siendo los mecanismos de mercado y la eficiencia los que orientan la inversion Average: 53.16 Average: 7.06 Average: 7.06
  Respondents: 38 Respondents: 36 Respondents: 34
Development: by 2018 : Public policies for the electric sector maintain neutrality as to the source for generation with market mechanisms and the efficiency providing the most important investment guides.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se descubrirá y explotara yacimientos de gas natural con potencial suficiente para que Camisea represente menos del 50% de la producción nacional de gas natural Average: 56.03 Average: 8.41 Average: 7.16
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : New natural gas deposits are discovered with enough potential, so that Camisea represents less than the 50% of the national natural gas production.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se establecerá el precio del gas para generación eléctrica considerando el precio de paridad de importación Average: 57.71 Average: 8.17 Average: 7.38
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : The natural gas price for the electric generation is set on the basis of import price parity      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Limitaciones en el suministro de gas natural de más de 6 meses, contraen la generación de energía eléctrica Average: 47.29 Average: 8.12 Average: 6.88
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Limitations in the natural gas supply of more than 6 months, constraining the generation of electricity.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El incremento del precio del gas natural de Camisea, resulto en incremento de la competitividad para las hidroeléctricas, otros yacimientos, y para la reconversión a ciclo combinado de otras centrales a gas Average: 69.03 Average: 7.71 Average: 6.88
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : The increase of the price of the natural gas from Camisea , result in increased competiveness for hydropower, other deposits, and reconversion to a combined cycle of gas plants      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Interrupciones en flujo de gas por gasoductos por conflictos con poblaciones locales con una frecuencia superior a un día por año Average: 58.43 Average: 7.29 Average: 7.25
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Interruptions in the gas flow (pipeline) by internal conflicts with local populations with a frequency of more than 1 day per year.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Interrupciones en flujo de gas por gasoductos por desperfectos o defectos de fabricación con una frecuencia superior a un día por año Average: 56.57 Average: 7.18 Average: 6.28
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Interruptions in the gas flow ( pipeline) by defects in the fabrication with a frequency of more than 1 day per year .      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Una red de gasoductos de gas natural garantiza el suministro de gas natural y su distribución en muchas zonas geográficas Average: 66.89 Average: 7.92 Average: 7.50
  Respondents: 36 Respondents: 36 Respondents: 34
Development: by 2018 : A natural gas pipeline network guarantees the supply of natural gas and its distribution in many geographic areas.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se ha construido el gaseoducto sur andino Average: 64.78 Average: 7.76 Average: 7.62
  Respondents: 40 Respondents: 38 Respondents: 37
Development: by 2018 : A South Andean pipeline has been built      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El otorgamiento de derechos de uso del agua para generación eléctrica se torna transparente por coherencia de la legislación y transparencia en la gestión . Average: 59.37 Average: 7.51 Average: 7.94
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : The granting of rights to use water for electricity generation becomes transparent because the consistency of legislation and transparency in public management.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Cambios en la normatividad del uso de agua, le asignan valor económico tangible y transferible en favor de las poblaciones aledañas a las fuentes de agua, encareciendo el costo del agua para generación eléctrica Average: 58.39 Average: 7.47 Average: 7.41
  Respondents: 36 Respondents: 36 Respondents: 34
Development: by 2018 : The cost of water for electricity generation increases as a result of new regulation that assign tangible and transferable value to populations surrounding water sources      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Conflictos se desarrollan entre la población aledañas a las fuentes de agua y las compañías e inversores en hidroenergía, por el acceso al agua y piden compensación económica Average: 68.78 Average: 7.62 Average: 7.15
  Respondents: 37 Respondents: 37 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : Conflicts develop between populations surrounding water sources and the companies and hydropower investors, for the access to water and ask for financial compensation.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El Estado logra que la regulación ambiental sea predecible y eficiente reduciendo los conflictos ambientales que deben afrontar los generadores y transmisores de energía Average: 55.14 Average: 7.49 Average: 7.38
  Respondents: 37 Respondents: 37 Respondents: 34
Development: by 2018 : The government enacts environmental regulations which are predictable and efficient , reducing the environmental conflicts that the power generators and transmitters face      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El Estado establece mecanismos viables y recuperables de financiamiento para permitir la culminación de la construcción de centrales hidroeléctricas afectadas por riesgos constructivos relevantes Average: 53.61 Average: 7.32 Average: 7.24
  Respondents: 36 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : The government establishes the viable and recoverable investment mechanisms that allow the completion of hydropower plants affected by the relevant constructive risks.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Gobierno populista interviene en la regulación del sector eléctrico, altera las reglas de juego y manipula tarifas de electricidad Average: 46.12 Average: 8.26 Average: 7.55
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 31
Development: by 2018 : A Populist government is involved in the regulation of the electric sector, alters the rules of the game and manipulating electricity tariffs      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Gobierno radicalista, violenta derechos de propiedad y expropia empresas privadas del sector eléctrico o estatiza empresas Average: 31.51 Average: 8.58 Average: 7.45
  Respondents: 37 Respondents: 36 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : Radical government abuse property rights and expropriated private sector electric companies      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Concentración de generación eléctrica limita competencia por mejorar eficiencia Average: 52.60 Average: 7.34 Average: 7.70
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : Concentration of power generation restricts competition to improve efficiency      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se logrará como objetivo, la máxima utilización de recursos energéticos renovables y el mínimo uso del gas natural en generación eléctrica Average: 42.00 Average: 7.56 Average: 7.48
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 31
Development: by 2018 : The maximum use of energy renewable resources and the minimal use of natural gas in electricity generation will be achieved as a goal.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El marco regulatorio para transmisión eléctrica es previsible y estable y propicia la inversión privada Average: 62.33 Average: 7.54 Average: 8.06
  Respondents: 36 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : The regulatory framework for electricity transmission is predictable and stable and conducive to private investment      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se realizan inversiones en líneas de transmisión oportunas y suficientes para evitar sobre costos en algunas áreas geograficas por saturacion de las lineas de transmission Average: 61.33 Average: 7.47 Average: 7.24
  Respondents: 36 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : Necessary and sufficient investments in transmission lines are made which prevent cost overruns in some geographical areas caused by saturation of the transmission lines      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El mayor volumen de las inversiones en líneas de transmisión han sido facilitadas por el marco regulatorio específico establecido Average: 61.00 Average: 6.94 Average: 7.27
  Respondents: 33 Respondents: 33 Respondents: 31
Development: by 2018 : The largest volume of investment in transmission lines has been encouraged by the specific regulatory framework established for transmission lines      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El mayor volumen de las inversiones en líneas de transmisión han requerido de incentivos económicos por parte del Estado Average: 56.09 Average: 7.05 Average: 7.29
  Respondents: 32 Respondents: 32 Respondents: 30
Development: by 2018 : Most investment in transmission lines has come from economic incentives provided by the state      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Incentivos tributarios permitirán ingreso al sistema de centrales no rentables e ineficientes Average: 41.29 Average: 6.97 Average: 7.58
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 33 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Tax incentives allow the entry of unprofitable and inefficient plants.      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : La energía generada a partir de recursos energéticos renovables no convencionales atendió al menos al 5% de la demanda de energía eléctrica al año 2014 Average: 56.57 Average: 6.31 Average: 7.21
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : The energy generated from unconventional renewable energy resources served at least 5% of the demand for electricity by 2014      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Al año 2018 la energía generada a partir de recursos energéticos renovables no convencionales atendió al menos a 10% de la demanda de energía eléctrica Average: 49.91 Average: 6.49 Average: 7.42
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 33
Development: by 2018 : The energy generated from unconventional renewable energy resources served at least 10% of the demand for electricity by 2018      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Las tarifas de electricidad no se han incrementado por efecto de los incentivos otorgados para la generación usando Recursos Energéticos Renovables Average: 35.88 Average: 7.29 Average: 7.52
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : The electricity tariffs have not increased as a result of incentives given for the generation using renewable energy resources      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Cogeneración se generaliza como mecanismo para lograr mayor eficiencia y reducción de costos de electricidad Average: 61.71 Average: 7.24 Average: 6.97
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Cogeneration is becoming widespread as a mechanism to achieve greater efficiency and cost reduction of electricity      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se realizan escasas inversiones en centrales hidroeléctricas en la cuenca del Pacifico, debido a la previsible reducción del caudal de agua por el Cambio Climático Average: 51.71 Average: 7.00 Average: 4.94
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Few Investments are made in hydroelectric plants in the Pacific basin, due to the expected reduction of water flow induced by climate change      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Las centrales hidroeléctricas localizadas en la cuenca del Pacifico reducen su producción debido a menores caudales de agua originados por el cambio climatic Average: 61.36 Average: 7.27 Average: 4.81
  Respondents: 33 Respondents: 33 Respondents: 31
Development: by 2018 : The hydropower plants located in the Pacific basin reduce their production due to lower water flow caused by climate change      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Algunas centrales hidroeléctricas localizadas en la cuenca del Pacifico no pueden seguir operando rentablemente debido a menores caudales de agua originados por el cambio climatic Average: 50.24 Average: 7.41 Average: 4.47
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Some hydroelectric plants located in the Pacific Rim cannot continue to operate profitably due to lower water flow caused by climate change      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : El estrés hídrico originado por el cambio climático no afecta los caudales de la vertiente oriental de los Andes peruanos (cuenca del Atlántico) Average: 53.14 Average: 6.80 Average: 4.41
  Respondents: 35 Respondents: 35 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Water stress caused by climate change does not affect the flow of the eastern slopes of the Peruvian Andes (Atlantic Basin)      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : En 3 de los últimos 10 años ha habido sequías severas que afectaron la generación hidroeléctrica Average: 51.47 Average: 7.88 Average: 4.72
  Respondents: 34 Respondents: 34 Respondents: 32
Development: by 2018 : Severe drought has affected hydroelectric generation in 3 of the last 10 years      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se cumple el mito de que las grandes inversiones en centrales hidroeléctricas solo podrán ser realizados con una alta participación estatal Average: 53.13 Average: 6.63 Average: 5.50
  Respondents: 8 Respondents: 8 Respondents: 8
Development: by 2018 : The belief that large investments in hydroelectric power can only be financed by the state turns out to be true      
Desarrollo: para 2018 : Se logrará como objetivo, la no utilización en el país de petróleo y derivados para generación eléctrica Average: 21.50 Average: 7.50 Average: 6.56
  Respondents: 10 Respondents: 10 Respondents: 9
Development: by 2018 : The goal of eliminating oil and derivatives for the generation of electricity is achieved.      

2009 State of the Future Index Data

Development Probability by 2019
Cell phone evolution and wireless Internet leads to massive increases in Internet access. 75
First orbital solar power satellite feeds electric grid on earth 35
Programs that encourage energy production from nuclear fission plants are encouraged almost everywhere  50
Automation and robotics increase productivity 25% in enough countries to make “jobless" economic growth 50
Tele-citizens; more than 10,000 people from poorer nations who live in richer nations help develop their original countries via international tele-commuting  75
Major computer fraud discovered and leads to introduction of certain controls on content and usage of Internet  75
Growth of solar, wind power, other “green” energy sources reduces burning in energy production by 5% 50
Energy costs drop 25%. 10
Energy costs rise by 25% 85

Analysis of Energy Survey

Development Business as Usual Environ-mental Backlash High Tech Political Turmoil Business as Usual Environ-mental Backlash High Tech Political Turmoil
1.16 Terrorist attack on oil production and/or delivery systems disrupts supply by 5-10%  for at least 1 month 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010- 2010-2015 2015-2020 2010-2015
2010 2010 2015 2010 2015
2020 2020 2020 2015  
1.13 The geopolitics of gas becomes as central to energy growth as the geopolitics of oil was in the last 30 years of the previous century 2010 2010 2015 2010 2015-2020 2015-2020 2020-2025 2015-2020
2020 2015 2020 2015
2020 2020 2025 2020
1.14 Carbon trading practiced by 30 of top 50 emitting countries 2012 2010 2010 2020 2015-2020 2010-2015 2020-2025 2020-2025
2020 2015 2015 2030
2025 2020 2020 2050
1.11 Industry consolidation continues, resulting in only a few large oil companies in the world 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015-2020 2015-2020 2015-2020 2025-2030
2020 2025 2020 2025
2025 2030 2030 2030
1.1 Hubbert Peak when half the conventional oil is gone (but conventional may one day in the future include deep drilling, tar sands, and shale) 2015 2024 2020 2015 2020-2025 2015-2020 2025-2030 2015-2020
2020 2030 2040 2015
2030 2040 2050 2020
1.5 One million electric cars per year are produced, plurality  manufactured in China 2015 2015 2015 2020 2020- 2020-2025 2015-2020 2025-2030
2020 2020 2020 2025 2025
2030 2025 2020 2038  
1.9 Significant portions of urban centers in most major cities are closed to private vehicle traffic, or have a system of tolls for entry by cars. 2015 2010 2015 2020 2015-2020 2015-2020 2015-2020 2025-2030
2020 2015 2020 2030
2030 2025 2030 2040
1.12 Water problems destabilize India and China, lowering economic growth, and causing coal and oil demands to fall. 2015 2015 2015 2013 2015-2020 2015-2020 2020-2025 2015-2020
2020 2022 2025 2017
2030 2035 2050 2030
1.15 Carbon taxes in one form or another in more than 50 countries 2015 2010 2013 2015 2020-2025 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
2020 2015 2020 2030
2030 2024 2025 2050
1.17 Majority of major new buildings in developing countries are designed for low energy consumption  2015 2012 2012 2020 2025-2030 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
2020 2017 2020 2038
2030 2030 2025 2050
1.18 Most countries have policies to achieve significant shifts in fuel mix, including removal of subsidies on coal and other fossil fuels 2015 2010 2012 2020 2020-2025 2015-2020 2015-2020 2020-2025
2020 2015 2015 2030
2030 2020 2020 2040
1.7 High efficiency engines power 25% of new cars; e.g. using Stirling engines 2020 2015 2015 2020 2025-2030 2020-2025 2020-2025 2025-2030
2025 2020 2020 2025
2030 2030 2025 2040
1.10 The amount of energy consumed per dollar of GDP worldwide drops 25% from today’s value 2020 2018 2015 2030 >2030 2020-2025 2020-2025 2025-2030
2025 2020 2020 2030
2030 2030 2028 2040
1.2 Affordable photovoltaic cells with >50% efficiency are available 2020 2020 2015 2020 omitted omitted omitted Omitted
2030 2025 2020 2030
2040 2035 2030 2050
1.4 A solution is found for long-term safe storage or destruction of radioactive waste 2020 2020 2015 2020 2025-2030 2020-2025 2020-2025 2025-2030
2030 2030 2025 2035
2050 2050 2050 2065
1.6 New credible fission technologies are developed to solve problems of nuclear generation; improved security, reduced risk of malfunction 2020 2020 2015 2030 2025-2030 2020-2025 2025-2030 2025-2030
2030 2040 2025 2040
2050 2050 2040 2050
1.8  30% of electrical power is generated at the point of use 2020 2020 2015 2020 >2030 2020-2025 2020-2025 2025-2030
2030 2025 2025 2030
2050 2040 2040 2060
1.3 First demonstration of cost-effective generation and delivery of base load electricity from solar earth orbital satellites 2030 2030 2020 2035 2025-2030 2025-2030 2020-2025 2025-2030
2050 2040 2030 2050
2070 2050 2050 2100