MP Special Studies
- Posted by JGlenn
- On 10 October 2017
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The United Nations takes on the Future: The Millennium Project Assessed the Best Strategies
UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued Our Common Agenda, a bold report on UN reforms that includes five foresight elements that are: UN Futures Lab, UN Summit on the Future, UN Envoy for Future Generations, Periodic UN Strategic Foresight and Global Threats reports, Re-purposed UN Trusteeship Council as a Multi-Stakeholder Foresight Body. The Millennium Project just released an international strategic assessment of how to implement each to improve global foresight.
Real-Time Delphi (RTD) questionnaire asked how critical each of the five element was to improving the effectiveness of global foresight; what and who would make this element successful, and what features would make it most effective; and additional strategies to implement the element.
The study was conducted in association with The Millennium Project’s 70 Nodes around the world (groups of individuals and institutions), along with the World Futures Studies Federation, and the Association of Professional Futurists.
The RTD panel of 189 futurists and related international experts from 54 countries overwhelmingly endorsed and will support the five foresight elements of Our Common Agenda, as an integrated and interdependent system: the success of each one affects the success of all the others.
The “THREE FUTURES OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE UNITED STATES JANUARY 1, 2022
Implications for all of us” report contains the three scenarios, plus an introduction, executive summary, conclusions, detailed lists of implications, readiness, list of low probability events that could change the scenarios, and an appendix with results from four Real-Time Delphi studies that was used as input to the scenarios plus the list of over 250 participants in these studies.
The three scenarios incorporated input from over 250 medical doctors, public health professionals, emergency relief staff, economists, and futurists in five US and international Real-Time Delphi studies (a unique interactive survey process). These studies assessed the possible best, worst, and most likely conditions by January, 2022.
- Publisher: The Millennium Project; 1 edition (August 1, 2014)
- Language: English; Spanish
- ISBN: 978-607-00-4892-0
FUTURES is the most comprehensive futures studies encyclopedic dictionary that exists to date. It comprises over 1,000 terms and methods used in futures studies. The work was initiated and coordinated by Concepción Olavarrieta, with review and edits of terms done by Theodore Gordon and Jerome Glenn, and with the contribution of more than 500 futurists from The Millennium Project network.
It is available in English and Spanish.
It can be downloaded as pdf file, or purchased as a CD.
by José Luis Cordeiro et al.
- Paperback: 128 pages
- Publisher: American Council for the UNU (December 19, 2012)
- Language: English; Spanish
- ISBN: 978-1-4717313-5-8
Scenarios de Latinoamérica 2030 El Millennium Project inició un estudio de dos años sobre el futuro de Latinoamérica en 2009. La primera fase de este estudio consistió en la realización de una encuesta con la metodología Real-Time Delphi (RTD) durante los ejercicios 2009 – 2010, y un segundo estudio RTD que ha sido diseñado para integrar los resultados del primero en forma de escenarios de Latinoamérica 2030.
Más de 550 personas de alrededor de 60 países participaron en el estudio durante un período de siete semanas.
El Real-Time Delphi ayudó a identificar algunos desarrollos con alta probabilidad y gran relevancia (denominados “buena apuesta”) y otros con relativamente baja probabilidad pero gran relevancia (denominados “sorpresas”). Adicionalmente, los expertos corroboraron el “ascenso” de China y el posicionamiento de Brasil como el país más influyente de Latinoamérica.
Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning — Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror Strategies
Edited by Theodore J. Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, Jerome Glenn, and Yair Sharan
Never before have technological advances had so great an impact on security—not only increasing the nature and level of threats, but also for the possibility of providing the means to address the threats. Technologies that could increase security include ubiquitous and omnipresent surveillance systems, the use of new algorithms for big data, improving bio- and psycho-metrics, and artificial intelligence and robotics. Yet trustworthy and reliable partners and an active and alert society remain sine qua non to reduce terrorism.
“To my mind, this publication is one of the best studies of modern terrorism and what to do about it that we have at our disposal. So I am confident that it will find a wide readership, not only in academic or think tank circles, but even more importantly, among policy makers and government officials. They stand to benefit most and they can afford least of all to ignore the important conclusions and recommendations that this wise publication has provided.”
Deputy Assistant Secretary General,
Emerging Security Challenges Division, NATO
Electronic (downladable PDF) or Papareback print format
We believe that a new kind of arms race is developing. On one hand, is the possibility of increasingly destructive weapons falling into the wrong hands, and on the other, the development of new methods of surveillance and pinpointing individuals with malintent. Will the methods of detection be adequate and timely enough to avoid catastrophe? It is often said that one of the major purposes of futures research is to provide lead-time to decision makers and the decision process; we have lead-time. We hope it will be used to reduce the threat we see in front of us.
Albert Einstein is supposed to have said, “The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch and do nothing.” We hope we have done something with this book.
List of Previous Millennium Project Futures Research*
*Nearly all The Millennium Project Publications and Special Studies are available on GFIS for subscribers.
- African Futures Issues, Scenarios 2025, and UNDP workshop at the UN/NY (1994)
- Millennium Project Feasibility Study final report (1995)
- Global Issues and Strategies four-round Global Lookout (Delphi) study (1996-97)
- Lessons of History (1997)
- Global Opportunities and Strategies Delphi (1997)
- Definitions of Environmental Security (1997)
- Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (and checklist) (1998-99)
- Global Normative 2050 Scenario (1998)
- Environmental Security Threats and Policy Leadership Responsibilities (1998)
- Current and Potential UN military doctrine on the Environmental Security (1999)
- Six Alternative Year 3000 Scenarios (1999)
- S&T Issues over the next 25 years (2000)
- Views from the Millennium Project on the Future of Technology with Implications for Society and the United Nations System (2000)
- World Leaders on Global Challenges (analysis of UN Summit Speeches) (2001)
- Military environmental crimes and the role of the ICC (2001)
- Management Implications of Future S&T 2025 Issues (2001)
- New Military Requirements 2010-2015 to Address Environmental Security (2001)
- Global Goals for the year 2050 (2002)
- Future S&T Scenarios 2025 (2002)
- Emerging Environmental Security Issues for Future UN Treaties (2002)
- Monthly Reports: Emerging Environmental Security Issues (2002-2011)
- Middle East Peace Scenarios (2002-04)
- Early Warning System for Kuwait Oil Company (2003-04)
- Military R&D Priorities Nanotech to Prevent Health/Environ Problems (2004-05)
- Future Ethical Issues (2004-05)
- Global Energy Scenarios (2006-07)
- South Korea SOFI (2006)
- Future of Learning and Education 2030 (2007)
- Global Climate Change Situation Room for Gimcheon, South Korea (2007-2008)
- Conceptual design for global energy collective intelligence (GENIS) (2008)
- Status of Government Future Strategy Units (2008)
- RTDelphi for UNESCO World Water Report (2008)
- WFUNA Human Rights (2008)
- Decision Criteria Evaluation of Global Environment Facility (2008)
- South Korea SOFI and South African SOFI (2008)
- Early Warning System PMO Kuwait (2008-2009)
- Potential Future Elements of the Next Economic System (2009)
- UNESCO World Water Scenarios project (2009)
- Future of Ontologists (2009)
- Future Hopes and Fears: a Kuwait Perspective (2010-2011)
- Latin America 2030 Scenarios (2009-2011)
- Egypt 2020 (2010)
- Changes to Gender Stereotypes (2011)
- Azerbaijan SOFI (2011)
- Future Arts, Media, and Entertainment: Seeds for 2020 (2011)
- Cooperatives 2030: Some Factors Impacting the Future of Cooperatives and Business (2012)
- Egypt’s national Synergetic Information System (ECISIS) (2013-16)
- Hidden Hunger: Unhealthy Food Markets in the Developing World (2013)
- Vulnerable Natural Infrastructure in Urban Coastal Zones (2013)
- FUTURES Dictionary/Encyclopedia (English and Spanish) (2014)
- SIMAD and Lone Wolf Terrorism Counter Strategies (2014)
- Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Visegrad Region SOFIs (2014-2015)
- Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Context of Climate Change (2015-16)
- Pre-Detection of Terrorism Strategies RTDelphi, NATO Workshop (2015-17)
- Future Work/Technology 2050 Global Issues, Scenarios, Workshops (2015-17)