Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
6. Information Technology
How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2008 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report. Please add your suggestions in the space provided after each paragraph and feel free to contact us with any questions.

We look forward to including your views.

Although no attributions will be made, for demographic analysis and so that you can be listed properly as participant in the next State of the Future, and so that a copy can be sent to you, please fill in the information below:

Name:
Title:
Organization:
My primary employment is in:
Government International Organization Corporation (Business) NGO University Independent Consultant Other

If other, please specify:
Address:
Country
Male Female

E-mail address:


General Description

There are now more Internet users in China than in the United States. About 1.4 billion people (21% of the world) are connected to the Net and 3.3 billion mobile phones are active. The Internet and mobile phones are merging. The Internet is evolving from a passive information repository (Web 1.0), to a user-generated and participatory system (Web 2.0), and eventually to a more intelligent partner with collective intelligence and just-in-time knowledge (Web 3.0), eventually interconnecting humanity with much of the built environment. The Internet is already the most powerful force for globalization, democratization, economic growth, and education in history. If Moore’s Law continues, within 25 years a computer will equal the processing power of the human brain; 25 years after that, everyone could access processing power beyond that of all the human brains on Earth.

Although the digital divide continues to close, special efforts are needed to lower cost, increase reliability, and improve educational and business usage in order to help close the economic divides. Businesses, governments, foundations, and UN organizations are collaborating to make “universal” broadband possible. “One Laptop Per Child” costs $178 in large lots to developing countries and may drop to $75 by 2010; meanwhile Intel’s second generation Classmate PCs and teacher training programs may eclipse one laptop per child even at the $300 price.

Internet bases with wireless transmission are being constructed in remote villages, cell phones with Internet are being designed for educational access by the lowest income groups, and new business models are being created to connect the poorest 2 billion people to the evolving nervous system of civilization. E-government systems can support justice, democratization, education, and economic development by delivering services, providing citizen feedback channels, and initiating public-private partnerships and future possibilities such as an electronic Peace Corps and tele-nations to connect people overseas with the development processes back home.

Meanwhile, e-mail, phone, instant messaging, and collaborative software link groups of people for the first time in humanitarian, scientific, and business projects. The Internet is beginning to connect very low-cost nanotech sensors, cameras, and transceivers in buildings and other objects for marketing, security, and environmental management. Businesses are building offices in Second Life and other cyberworlds that compete with conventional reality, and Wikipedia is becoming a global collective intelligence. Online social networks are new forms of transnational democracy for emergent collective conscience and action. The greatest entrepreneurial success in history was the sale of YouTube for $1.65 billion just 21 months after it was founded.

Please suggest edits to this paragraph:


Approaches to address this challenge

Multimedia growth on the Internet could triple in three years, slowing everything down until infrastructures are dramatically upgraded. The OECD forecast that Internet addresses that identify devices connected to the Net will be used up within three years. Increasing numbers of people are beginning to manage more of their data and software applications on the Web—eliminating worries about software updates or file backups, but increasing data privacy issues and more demand on the Internet.

Since cyberspace has become a new medium for civilization, the full range of human behavior from individual philanthropy to organized crime grows on the Internet. Cybercrime (estimated at $105 billion) is replacing spam as a thriving international business. A global intellectual arms race is needed to counter online markets for illegal software and data and illegal or counterfeit drugs, international cyber attacks, and pornography. Business loss due to a range of cyber crimes is estimated at 8–10% of revenues. The Web is now the major recruitment and training tool for violent extremists. Fundamental rethinking will be required to counter future forms of information warfare that otherwise could lead to the distrust of all forms of information in cyberspace.

Please suggest other actions to address this challenge or edits to the ones above:

Regional Considerations

Africa: Internet users in Africa increased by 31% in 2007, with penetration rising to 4.7%. New fiber-optic cables to cut cost and speed access are planned to link Africa to Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, at a cost of $6.4 billion. Only six African countries have penetration rates greater than 8%. Africa is increasingly using mobile phones to provide Net access. Nearly 90% of all telephones in Africa are mobile. Tele-education, tele-medicine, and e-government will become more important as African professionals die of AIDS in increasing numbers.

Please suggest edits concerning Africa:

Asia and Oceania: Asia has the largest percent of the world’s Internet users (39%) but only 14% penetration. Chinese is the second most common language on the Internet, even with only 10% penetration in China. It had 20 million blogs, 1.3 million Web sites, 11,000 ISPs, and 600 million mobile phones by July 2008. Online business in China increased 66% in 2007 to $295 billion, but the government continues its strong controls to prevent reception of “harmful” information. India’s Net users grew 33% during 2007 and its software and services exports are expected to reach $60 billion by 2010. Japanese is tied with English in blogosphere usage. South Korea continues to lead the world in broadband penetration.

Please suggest edits concerning Asia and Oceania:

Europe: Europe has 348 million Internet users, with 43.4% penetration, led by Germany with 53.2%, while Russian users increased by 21% over last year. The EC has proposed a new €55-million “Safer Internet” program to tackle child pornography, pedophilia, and digital bullying. French candidates campaigned in Second Life. Russian Net population is estimated at 35 million, broadband at 4.8 million, and efforts to better connect rural areas and schools have begun. In response to Estonia’s request for help to counter large-scale cyberwarfare that paralyzed its networks, affecting government, police, ministries, banks, and media, NATO is establishing a Cyber Defense Center of Excellence in Estonia with cyber security response teams.

Please suggest edits concerning Europe:

Latin America: Uruguay is the first country to purchase 100,000 “one laptop per child” laptops; 200,000 more are expected in 2009 to cover all public school children between 6 and 12 years old. Peru has purchased 270,000, and billionaire Carlos Slim purchased 50,000 for Mexico. Viña del Mar in Chile became the first city in Latin America with free broadband Internet access. Cuba is now allowing ordinary citizens to possess cell phones. Only Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile have greater than 30% penetration in Latin America, while most of the rest are at 20–25%. Brazil is bringing Internet access to 150 communities in the Amazon region. Fulfilling the promise of these technologies for international collaboration and development will require more serious attention to training.

Please suggest edits concerning Latin America:

North America: Broadband carriers are fighting “Net neutrality,” which would prevent them from charging on the basis of user or content type. The U.S. is not well placed for Web 2.0 and 3.0 since it has fallen to 15th in broadband penetration in the world, and its top broadband speeds are several times slower than those of Japan and South Korea. MIT has opened a Center for Collective Intelligence. Natural disaster planning is creating an information infrastructure for collective intelligence. Depending on definitions, there were 10,000–80,000 cyber attacks on the U.S. government during 2007. The Web is playing a major role in the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

Please suggest edits concerning North America:

Graph: Regional Internet Population Growth

Source: internetworldstats.com

If you want to suggest a better graphic representation for this challenge, please indicate the source(s) of data:

Additional Comments
Please suggest any additional comments concerning this challenge:

Thank you for your participation. The results will be sent to you in the next State of the Future.



Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the WFUNA