State of the Future Index

Assessing the impact and the interplay of the different potential developments affecting the future is a difficult and controversial task, but it is nevertheless valuable and necessary for coherent policymaking. Quantitative assessment of the factors of change helps us understand the system and supports the setting of priorities.

The SOFI is an indication of the outlook for the future based on historical data for a period at least double of the forecasted one; e.g., for a 10-year forecast, at least 20 years of historical data are used. The SOFI is a graphical representation that shows potential trends by combining several variables/indicators relevant to the system — see Figure 1. It is not a projection; its role is solely to help identify possible trajectories of its components and the relationships among them — how changes to individual or several variables ripple throughout the system. It has been produced by The Millennium Project since 2000. [For details on the methodology, see “State of the Future Index” chapter in the Futures Research Methodology 3.0.]

The SOFI computation entails many subjective decisions and probabilities; hence, the apparent precision of the graph should not be mistaken for accuracy. Combining many variables into a single index also leads to loss of detail, hide certain aspects by compensating losses in some areas with progress in the others, and mask variations among sectors, regions, or nations. Nevertheless, the SOFI can be useful for assessing the consequences of different policies and for showing the combined potential outcomes in an easy-to-understand mode.

SOFI is in continuous evolution and adapted to global changes. The indicators included in the SOFI, as well as their respective weights (importance to the system) and the “best” and “worst” values for the forecasted period have been decided through RTD international panels and updated by The Millennium Project staff.[1] The sources of data are carefully considered for reliability and consistency of data collection and data definitions for at least twenty-year period. For each new SOFI computation, all data are updated, and the curve fit equations are reassessed for each indicator, and new extrapolations and interpolations are made.

The indicators included in the computation of the 2035 SOFI are listed below. The baseline SOFI that resulted from the use of the new data sets is shown in Figure 1, while Figure 2 illustrates some sensitivity analysis on how SOFI might look like if some specific policy/strategies were to be adopted.

Variables included in the computation of 2035 SOFI

  1. GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $)

  2. Income Inequality (Income share held by highest 10%)

  3. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)

  4. Poverty headcount ratio at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) (% of population)

  5. CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating

  6. Foreign direct investment: Inward flows and stock, annual (current US$, billions)

  7. Research and development expenditure (% of GDP)

  8. Population growth (annual %)

  9. Life expectancy at birth (years)

  10. Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

  11. Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)

  12. Current health expenditure per capita (current US$)

  13. Physicians (per 1,000 people)

  14. People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population)

  15. Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)

  16. Biocapacity (gha per person)

  17. Forest area (% of land area)

  18. CO2-equivalent mixing ratio (ppm)

  19. Energy intensity of the economy (MJ/USD)

  20. Share of primary energy from renewable sources (% of total)

  21. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

  22. School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

  23. Patent applications, residents

  24. Number of conflicts (state-based violence)

  25. Terrorism Incidents

  26. Refugee population by country or territory of asylum (million people)

  27. Freedom Rights (number of countries rated free)

  28. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (% of members)

  29. Individuals using the Internet (% of population)

Figure 1. 2035 State of the Future Index baseline

Figure 2. 2035 State of the Future Index with sensitivity analysis

The graph in Figure 2 with sensitivity analysis illustrates how SOFI can help with setting priorities. The three variables showcased are all related to the energy sector, demonstrating their impact on the system:

  • If CO2 emissions were to decrease from 2022 to 2035 at the same pace as they increased during the same number of years in the period just before, then the global forecast would look considerably better.
  • Both increasing “Energy efficiency” and higher rate of “Energy from renewable” have a positive impact on the SOFI; removing each of those indicators from the set, would weaken the global forecast.

This not only offers evidence for what is intuitively known already — that a more aggressive policy in the domain of energy would considerably improve the future outlook — but also shows the potential quantitative impact of each variable on the forecast. Such sensitivity analysis can be conducted using any variable or group of variables, thus identifying the likely impact of various policies on the system as a whole.

A one-to-one comparison with the SOFIs prepared in earlier years would be misleading, since some of the variables have changed. However, since the 2030 SOFI (using pre-COVID-19 data) and the 2035 SOFI (including COVID-19 impact) have been computed with the same variables, a comparison has been attempted. While the set of indicators is the same, it should be noted that some historical data has been reassessed by the respective organizations, thus explaining the mismatch of the “Data” segments. Figure 2.3 features the two SOFIs up to the year 2030. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the outlook of the future is very noticeable.

Figure 3. Comparison between SOFI 2030 (using pre-COVID-19 data) and SOFI 2035 computed using data that reflects the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various indicators

Not surprisingly, the indicators strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic include GNI per capita, Population growth, and Life expectancy, as shown by the dip for the years 2020-2022 in the graphs of Figures 4, 5, and 6 respectively.

The “best” and “worst” values in the graphs are averages from the RTD panel’s forecasts. Note that in some cases, the data projects a better future than the average “best” from the panel; hence, the panel was more pessimistic than the data suggests.

Figure 4. GNI per capita, purchase power parity 

Data source: WB, GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) and trajectory computed with CurveExpert Professional  

Figure 5. Population growth, annual percentage

Data source:  WB, Population growth (annual %)  and trajectory computed with CurveExpert Professional

Figure 6. Life expectancy at birth 

Data source:  WB, Life expectancy at birth, total (years) and trajectory computed with CurveExpert Professional

One of the advantages of computing the SOFI is the identification of the areas where humanity is winning, losing, or stagnating — thereby helping set priorities. Figures 7 and 8 show where humanity is making progress and where more political attention and efforts are needed.

The world seems to be making progress in more areas than it is regressing or stagnating in, but since the areas of stagnation or regress are crucially important for human and planetary survival, addressing them should be a top priority.

Figure 7. Areas where humanity is winning

Figure 8. Areas where humanity is losing or there is no progress

A more in-depth analysis can be made by assessing all the 29 individual variables and their potential trajectories. The individual assessment of each indicator is shown in the State of the Future 20.0. Those graphs also show the estimates for the “best” and “worst” values for the respective indicators in 2030, and their potential trajectories to 2035 based on the best fit curve computed with CurveExpert Professional.

National SOFI

SOFI can be — and has been — computed for nation-states, regions, or different domains. Some of the national SOFIs that have been computed over the years are shown in Figures 9 to 11. Note: the set of variables included in the national SOFIs are selected based on the specifics of each country, although respecting the general principles of SOFI.

National SOFIs computed with the same set of indicators can also be used to compare multiple courtiers, in order to help identify areas that could drive better progress in comparable situations. In this sense, the Visegrad Group (V4) countries — Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia — computed their national SOFIs and then placed them on the same graph, as shown in Figure 11.

Figure 9. Pakistan SOFI

Figure 10. Azerbaijan SOFI 2021 with Trend Impact Analysis

Figure 11. SOFI 2024 Comparison among V4 countries

This SOFI webpage is updated regularly.

More details on the 2035 SOFI and the 15 Global Challenges that inspire the selection of the indicators/variables included in SOFI are available in the  State of the Future 20.0.

Indiana University is offering each year very nice visualizations of SOFI, as for example this, for a previous SOFI.

A special World Building State of the Future Index (WB-SOFI) has been computed for the World Building contest organized by The Future of Life Institute. It is available at: WB-SOFI.

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 1. The assessments for the best/worst values of the 2030 SOFI variables have been made by an international panel of experts using the platform provided by 4CF-The Futures Literacy Company.