Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
10. Peace and Conflict
How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2008 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report. Please add your suggestions in the space provided after each paragraph and feel free to contact us with any questions.

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General Description

Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to increasing oil and food prices, to decreasing water-food-energy supplies per person, to climate change, and to increasing migrations due to political, environmental, and economic conditions. These can trigger complex interactions of old ethnic and religious conflicts, civil unrest, terrorism, and crime, making conventional industrial-age military force less effective. Since many countries affected by conflict return to war within five years of a cease-fire, more serious efforts are required to deconstruct the structures of violence and establish structures of peace.

The vast majority of the world is living in peace, conflicts actually decreased over the past decade, cross-cultural dialogues are flourishing, and intra-state conflicts are increasingly being settled by international interventions. The probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy, international trade, global news media, the Internet, satellite surveillance, better access to resources, and the evolution of the UN. However, some recent setbacks have occurred, with failing states, separatist movements, and decreases in press freedom.

By mid-2008 there were 14 wars (conflicts with 1,000 or more deaths)—one fewer than in 2007. These wars were in Africa (5), Asia (4), the Americas (2), the Middle East (2), and worldwide anti-extremism (1). Beginning in 2008, there were 160,000 peacekeepers from all sources, of which the UN had 88,000 uniformed personnel and 17,000 civilians in 17 operations. Total military expenditures are about $1.3 trillion per year. There are an estimated 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world, approximately 1,700 tons of highly enriched uranium, and 500 tons of separated plutonium that could produce nuclear weapons.

Future desktop molecular and pharmaceutical manufacturing and organized crime’s access to nuclear materials give extremists and single individuals the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction—from biological weapons to low-level nuclear (“dirty”) bombs. Unauthorized use of nuclear or radioactive materials reports to IAEA averaged 150 per year between 2004 and 2007.

Please suggest edits to this paragraph:


Approaches to address this challenge

Much of urban civilization depends on the Internet; hence, cyber weapons can also be considered a WMD deployable by an individual. In addition to ubiquitous sensors and security systems in urban environments, we have to apply cognitive science to improve and connect education and mental health systems to detect and treat individuals who might otherwise grow up to use such weapons.

Early warning systems of governments and UN agencies could be better connected with NGOs and the media to help generate the political will to prevent or reduce conflicts. The UN has established www.un.org/peacemaker containing a wealth of information. Massive public education programs are needed to promote respect for the diversity, equal rights, common ethical values, and oneness that underlie human diversity. It is less expensive and more effective to attack the root causes of unrest than to stop explosions of violence. Peace strategies without love, compassion, or spiritual outlooks are less likely to work, because intellectual or rational systems cannot overcome the emotional divisions that prevent unity and harmony. Counter-terrorism strategies should include many personal conversations with hardliner groups. Sanctions should target elite criminals rather than innocent populations. Advanced communications could be parachuted to local citizens so that local realities could be broadcast to the world.

Backcasted peace scenarios should be created through participatory processes to show how peace is possible (see CD Chapter 3.7). The UN Security Council has received over 150 country reports on how to keep nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons out of the hands of terrorists and black marketers and how to improve international counterterrorism strategies. Networks of CDC-like centers to counter impacts of bioterrorism should be supported. Governments should destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons, create tracking systems for potential bioweapons, establish an international audit system for each weapon, and increase the use of nonlethal weapons to reduce future revenge cycles.

Challenge 10 will be addressed seriously when arms sales and violent crimes decrease by 50% from their peak.

Please suggest other actions to address this challenge or edits to the ones above:

Regional Considerations

Africa: Wars in Africa cost an estimated $18 billion annually. The UN provides 2,391 peacekeepers in Africa; the African Union provides 72% of the non-UN peacekeeping forces in the region. The Chairman of the African Union brought Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo to a peace agreement for a border dispute over oil. The Central African Republic has signed a ceasefire agreement with the last remaining rebel group in conflict. Although decreasing over the past 10 years, coups, unrest, and ethnic conflicts continue to plague the continent, while Al Qaeda continues to influence Muslims from Mauritania to Somalia. Millions of AIDS orphans may fuel a new generation of violence.

Please suggest edits concerning Africa:

Asia and Oceania: Nuclear proliferation concerns increase with potential instability in Pakistan and North Korea and uncertainty with Iran and Syria. China’s military budget increased 18% during 2008. The Chinese anti-satellite test explosion created tens of thousands of new pieces of space debris in low-earth orbit through which satellites, the Space Station, and space shuttles travel. China faces unrest in both Tibet and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, with the Tibetans and Uighurs calling for greater political and religious freedom. Taiwan’s newly elected president supports closer ties with the mainland. China’s lack of transparency and “no strings attached” loan policies have provoked criticism from the World Bank and IMF. India is exploring a seamless web of security-related linkages for Asia.

Please suggest edits concerning Asia and Oceania:


Europe: Russian budget reports indicate an effort to restore the country’s standing as a major military power. The large numbers of migrant laborers entering the EU and Russia will require new approaches to integrate them better into society if increased conflicts are to be prevented. As the failed EU constitution effort is replaced by the Treaty of Lisbon, France pushes for a Mediterranean Union. Stresses continue around the borders of Russia, from Estonia to Azerbaijan.

Please suggest edits concerning Europe:

Latin America: Although one of the most peaceful regions in the world, interstate struggles with Latin American drug cartels continue. Tensions among Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia increased. The fact that there are few land-owning opportunities for the poor continues to cause social unrest.

Please suggest edits concerning Latin America:

North America: The recent U.S. moves toward less aggressive military policies and more multilateral approaches to world security problems are expected to accelerate with the next administration. Intelligence technology and military power have never provided security in asymmetrical warfare without genuine cross-cultural understandings and better multilateral cooperation. The knowledge of how to bring about mass destruction through emerging mechanisms such as genetic engineering, nano-technology, and artificial intelligence could have more potential to destroy civilization than nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons.

Please suggest edits concerning North America:

Graph: Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007

Source: Global Conflict Trends, Center for Systemic Peace, 2008 www.systemicpeace.org


If you want to suggest a better graphic representation for this challenge, please indicate the source(s) of data:

Additional Comments
Please suggest any additional comments concerning this challenge:

Thank you for your participation. The results will be sent to you in the next State of the Future.



Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the WFUNA