Millennium Project
Updating the Global Challenges Facing Humanity
13. Energy
How can growing energy demand be met safely and efficiently?

This is the short description of the challenge as appears in the print version of the 2008 State of the Future report. The more complete version of this challenge along with actions to address it, graphs, and indicators to measure change is available on the CD-ROM included with the report. Please add your suggestions in the space provided after each paragraph and feel free to contact us with any questions.

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General Description

World energy demand could double in just 20 years. Without major technological changes, fossil fuels will provide 81% of primary energy demand by 2030. If so, then large-scale carbon capture, storage, and reuse should become a top priority. The IEA projects oil demand to grow nearly 40% from 2006 to 2030 and estimates that investments of $22 trillion would be required to meet demand. Some argue that oil production is peaking and will end in 40–70 years. The dramatic jump in oil, gas, and coal prices is making renewable sources more competitive; renewable energy investments reached $100 billon in 2007 and cumulatively could be $7 trillion by 2030. Over 65 countries have national renewable energy goals. Currently only 3.4% of world electricity is generated by renewable sources; 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and 2.4 billion still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating, while billions of gallons of petroleum are wasted in traffic jams around the world.

Given the exponential growth of cars in China and India, decarbonizing transport fuels should be a global priority. Prices for electric car batteries and capacitors are low enough to make fully electric cars competitive, and cars have successfully run on compressed air. Massive saltwater irrigation of coasts can grow halophyte plants and algae to produce 190,000 liters of biofuels per hectare per year instead of letting less-efficient freshwater biofuel production (now 4% of global gasoline consumption) have catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. Space solar power satellites could manage base-load electricity on a global basis, improving efficiencies and transmitting energy to electric grids, providing sustainable abundant electricity for the world. Drilling to hot rock (two to five kilometers down) could make geothermal energy available where conventional geothermal has not been possible. A total of 438 nuclear reactors are operating today; 38 are under construction and more than 300 are either on order or being proposed. For nuclear energy to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, about 2,000 nuclear power plants (average 1 gigawatt) would have to be built at $5–15 billion per plant over 15 years—and possibly an additional 8,000 plants beyond that to 2050. There is not enough U235 to supply them, so thorium breeder reactors would have to be built, which raises proliferation concerns. Another Chernobyl-type accident or nuclear hijacking could halt expansion of nuclear power.

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Approaches to address this challenge

Innovations are accelerating, such as concentrator photovoltaics that dramatically reduce costs; waste heat from power plants, human bodies, and microchips to produce electricity; genomics to create hydrogen-producing photosynthesis; solar energy to produce hydrogen; microbial fuel cells to generate electricity; and compact florescent light bulbs and light-emitting diodes to significantly conserve energy, as would nanotubes that conduct electricity. Solar farms can focus sunlight atop towers with Stirling engines and other generators. Estimates for the potential of wind energy continue to increase, but maintenance problems grow. Plastic nanotech photovoltaics printed on buildings and other surfaces could cut costs and increase efficiency. The transition to a hydrogen infrastructure may be too expensive and too late to affect climate change, while plug-in hybrids, flex-fuel, electric, and compressed air vehicles could provide alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles sooner. The world’s first mass-market plug-in hybrid is coming out later this year from China, and its largest car maker, Chery, plans that half of its cars will be hybrids by 2010, while 40% of its cars will be for export. Unused nighttime power production could supply electric and plug-in hybrid cars. National unique all-electric car programs are being implemented in Denmark and Israel, with discussions being held in 30 other countries.

A global collective intelligence described in Chapter 5 could provide the overviews and details necessary to create more coherent energy policy and better informed consumer choices. Meanwhile, approximately 1,000 coal plants, with production lives of 40 years, are in some stage of planning or construction around the world without CO2 capture. Environmental movements may try to close down such plants, just as they stopped growth in nuclear energy 30 years ago. The world needs coherent energy policies.

Challenge 13 will be addressed seriously when the total energy production from environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row, and when atmospheric CO2 additions drop for at least five years.

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Regional Considerations

Africa: The continent’s electric production could double via the proposed $80-billion dam on the Congo River, with some exports to Europe. Algeria plans to export 6,000 megawatts of solar-generated power to Europe by 2020. By 2050, 10–25% of Europe’s electricity needs could be met by North African solar thermal plants. With support from development partners, African leaders agreed to invest $10 billion annually between 2009 and 2014 in renewable energy.

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Asia and Oceania: Japan plans to develop a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030; such systems could meet the world’s electricity requirements indefinitely without nuclear or GHG emissions. It also plans to have 5 million fuel cell cars by 2020. China and India account for 45% of the increase in world energy demand in IAEA’s 2030 reference scenario. Car sales in China may exceed 10 million during 2008 and could pass the U.S. sales by 2025. India’s $3,000 car may accelerate car ownership in developing countries. China is the world’s second largest oil consumer, plans to quadruple its nuclear capacity by 2020 (while 66% of its energy comes from coal today), and is expected to become the world’s largest producer of photovoltaics in 2008. The UAE plans to invest $15 billion in new energy sources and announced a $22-billion plan to build the first zero-carbon city. The Philippines gets 27% of its electricity from geothermal sources. Australia plans to outlaw incandescent light bulbs by 2010 in favor of compact fluorescent bulbs and to share its wind and geothermal energy technologies in Asia.

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Europe: Europe plans to build 50 new coal plants in five years, expects 21–28% of its electricity from wind by 2030 (up from 3.7% today, which powers 60 million homes), but is increasingly dependent on Russian energy. Germany produces half the world’s solar electricity and could nearly double its solar energy industry by 2010. Sweden cut its carbon emissions by 9% between 1990 and 2006 while its economy grew 44% in fixed prices. Russia plans to have 25% of its energy from nuclear sources by 2020.

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Latin America: Costa Rica plans to become carbon-neutral by 2021. Brazil produces ethanol for 60 cents per gallon, meeting 40% of its automotive needs, and has discovered over 10 billion barrels of oil offshore. Venezuela’s heavy oil reserves could use today’s technologies, giving it larger reserves than Saudi Arabia.

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North America: General Motors will mass-market an electric car in 2010. “Off-peak” electricity production and transmission capacity could fuel 84% of the 220 million U.S. vehicles if they were plug-in hybrid electrics. Recycling waste heat from nuclear power plants to home air conditioners and even body heat to recharge batteries could reduce CO2 by 10–20% in the U.S. Project Green Freedom is developing electrochemical separation of carbon from the air to produce methanol and gasoline. Over 100 of the 151 coal-fired power plants proposed in the U.S. were either refused licenses or abandoned in 2007 or continue to be contested in the courts. Wind projects accounted for 35 percent of all new electricity-generating capacity added in the U.S. in 2007. Quebec and British Columbia have introduced carbon taxes. Canada is not expected to meet its Kyoto treaty obligations mainly due to Alberta’s development of oil tar sands, which also jeopardizes forests. Two-thirds of the U.S. refining capacity expansion is being tailored for “dirty oil” from tar sands.

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Additional Comments
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Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the WFUNA