Millennium Project
Global Challenges Facing Humanity
1. Sustainable Development and Climate Change
How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

CO2 emissions are increasing faster—and the world is warming faster—than the IPCC estimated. Atmospheric CO2 is now 387 ppm, with increasing impacts around the world; hence, making targets like the EU’s for 550 ppm, which could be overshot, may be insufficient to prevent effects beyond human control. A top NASA climatologist and others now suggest a 350 ppm target is needed instead. Average annual atmospheric CO2 increases rose from 1.5 ppm 1970–2000 to 2.1 ppm since 2000. The rate of glacial melting has doubled over the past two years. The Arctic summer ice pack could be gone in 5–32 years. And 2007 was the second hottest year on record, next to 2005, leading some to warn that climate change has reached the point of no return, yet 800–1,000 coal plants are planned with 40-year life spans. Even if emissions can be stabilized, heat generated by energy consumption could also further the warming.

It is time for a U.S.–China global strategy to address climate change with an Apollo-like 10-year goal that might support electric cars, saltwater agriculture, carbon sequestration, solar power satellites (a Japanese national goal), animal protein without animals, enhanced hot-rock geothermal, urban systems ecology, and a global climate change collective intelligence to keep track of it all. These would be in addition to the usual suggestions for a carbon tax, carbon cap and trading, conservation and recycling, reduced deforestation, industrial efficiencies and co-generation, and switching government subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy. (It is estimated that industrial countries subsidize fossil fuels with $200 billion a year.) Scientists are studying how to create sunshades in space, adding iron powder to the oceans to absorb CO2, and how to suck CO2 from the air. Sir Richard Branson offered a $25 million prize for technology to clean CO2 from the atmosphere. ISO standards to reduce consumers’ environmental impact are improving. The nuclear industry is gaining momentum, although the risk of accidents, waste management, and terrorist usage are not well addressed.

Without a global strategy to address climate change, the environmental movement may turn on the fossil fuel industries. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for damages caused by greenhouse gases. Large reinsurance companies estimate the annual economic loss due to climate change could reach $150–300 billion per year within a decade. Coastal urbanization is increasing the numbers of people vulnerable to coastal flooding. The value of intact ecosystems far outweighs the cost of protecting them, but human consumption is 25% larger than nature’s capacity to regenerate. One in four mammals, one in eight birds, one-third of all amphibians, and 70% of the world’s assessed plants on the 2007 IUCN Red List are in jeopardy.

The majority of the 50 million tons of e-waste produced annually is dumped in developing countries. The environmental damage caused by the richer countries on the developing nations is more than the entire Third World debt of $1.8 trillion. To help developing countries leapfrog unsustainable practices to more sustainable ones, the Global Environment Facility provided $7.4 billion in grants and $28 billion in cofinancing since 1991 and an additional $3 billion to 2010; more funds are being established by the World Bank ($5.5 billion), Japan (a five-year $10 billion), and the Asian Development Bank ($1.2 billion). The UN estimates that developing countries will need $100 billion annually to finance climate change mitigation and $28–67 billion for adaptation by 2030.

Other suggestions include: raising fuel efficiency standards 5% a year relative to GDP, an environmental footprint tax for using more than 1.8 global hectares per person, a 1% tax on the $1.5–2 trillion of international financial transactions per day, and mandating improved car mileage one mile per year. Taxes on international travel, carbon, and urban congestion should be considered. Such tax income could support an international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies. Massive public educational efforts via film, television, music, games, and contests should stress what we can do. The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behaviors, the next 200 years will be difficult. Yet without sustainable growth, billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilization will collapse. Challenge 1 will be addressed seriously when GDP increases while global greenhouse gas emissions decrease for five years in a row.

Regional Considerations

Africa: Africa will be hit hardest by climate change, though it contributes least to the problem. Southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its maize crop by 2030 due to climate change. Forest loss accelerates desertification and soil erosion, making the continent even more vulnerable to climate change. Saltwater agriculture along the coasts of Africa and solar energy in the Sahara could be massive sources for sustainable growth.

Asia and Oceania: China’s CO2 emissions were approximately 8% higher than the U.S.’s in 2007. Only 1% of China’s urban residents live in cities with air quality levels recommended by WHO, and air pollution causes 750,000 premature deaths each year. At current rates, emissions of nitrogen oxide will increase 2.3 times in China and 1.4 times in East Asia by 2020. China and India lose 12% and 10% respectively of their GDP due to environmental damage. Four Arab Gulf states have pledged a total of $750 million to a new fund for cleaner petroleum technologies. Australia begins carbon trading in 2010.

Europe: EU-15 emissions in 2010 are projected to be 7.4% lower than the 1990 level, just short of the 8% reduction target for 2012. Iceland plans to become carbon-neutral by 2025. London introduced the world’s largest low-emission zone. Climate change may benefit Russian agriculture. Over 50% of Europe’s hazardous waste shipments could be illegal.

Latin America: Brazil plans zero deforestation by 2020, but current trends in agriculture and livestock expansion, fire, drought, and logging could eliminate or severely damage nearly 60% of the Amazon rainforest by 2030, with the release of 55.5–96.9 billion tons of CO2. Farming for biofuels versus food is debated in Brazil while new oil reserves are discovered. The EU will provide €100 million for Latin American projects in forest management, governance, and climate change adaptation. Attacks on land tenure and the breakup of farms into smaller parcels are generating irreversible ecological damage in most countries.

North America: U.S. carbon emissions fell 1.3% in 2006 but increased 1.6% in 2007. Local Canadian and U.S. governments in the Western Climate Initiative are creating cap-and-trade and other programs to reduce GHG emissions. During the last five years, the U.S. spent $37 billion on climate-related programs, compared with $3.5 trillion on the military. Al Gore launched a new $300-million campaign to create bottom-up pressure on legislators to tackle climate change. Technological efficiencies in nanotech and solar research from this region should help sustainable development around the world. U.S. Patent and Trademark Office applications with “green” in them more than doubled from 2006 to 2007.

Graph: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (0C)

Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center with Millennium Project estimates

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