Millennium Project
Global Challenges Facing Humanity
1. Sustainable Development
How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

The IPCC reports that CO2 emissions rose faster than its worst case scenario during 2000–04 and that without new government actions greenhouse gases will rise 25–90% by 2030 over 2000 levels. The current absorption capacity of carbon by oceans and forests is about 3–3.5 billion tons per year; human activities add 7 billion tons annually. Human consumption is 25% larger than nature’s capacity to regenerate or to absorb our “ecological footprint.” An increase greater than 2.54°C puts 20–30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction; 60% of ecosystem services are already gone or are being used unsustainably; disturbing changes in the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic have been measured; the Arctic and Greenland are melting faster than expected; and 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years on record, leading some to warn that climate change has reached the point of no return. As matters get worse, the environmental movement may turn on the fossil fuel industries. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for damages caused by greenhouse gases.

Some scientists have started exploring geo-engineering to combat climate change, such as adding iron powder to the oceans to dramatically increase absorption of CO2 on a planetary scale and using devices to suck CO2 from the air. Massive seawater agriculture along 24,000 kilometers of coast deserts would be a carbon sink and a source for biofuels, paper products, and food. Laboratory breakthroughs in solar energy promise to cut costs drastically, yet 800–1,000 coal plants are planned with 40-year life spans. Carbon trading, including buying carbon offsets, is gaining attention. Carbon capture and storage would help reduce emissions, but even if emissions can be stabilized, heat generated by energy consumption could further the warming.

Environmental security, not just climate change, should be brought to the UN Security Council. Massive urbanization and concentrated livestock production could trigger new global pandemics. Climate change alters insect and disease patterns. Definitions and measurements will be needed for commonly applied tax incentives, along with labels for more environmentally friendly products and green accounting. Developing countries need to leapfrog unsustainable practices to more sustainable ones; the World Bank estimates that adapting to climate change will cost developing countries $10–40 billion a year. Large reinsurance companies estimate the annual economic loss due to climate change could reach $150–300 billion per year within a decade. The value of intact ecosystems far outweighs the cost of protecting them.

Government subsidies need to switch from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy (it is estimated that industrial countries subsidize fossil fuels with $200 billion a year). Other suggestions include: raising fuel efficiency standards 5% a year relative to GDP; an environmental footprint tax for using more than 1.8 global hectares per person; a 1% tax on the $1.5–2 trillion of international financial transactions per day; and mandating improved car mileage one mile per year. Taxes on international travel, carbon, and urban congestion should be considered. Such tax income could support an international public/private funding mechanism for high-impact technologies. Massive public educational efforts via film, television, music, games, and contests should stress what individuals and groups can do. The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behavior and close the gap between the rich and the poor, the next 200 years could be difficult. Next to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, unsustainable growth may well be the greatest threat to the future of humanity. Yet without sustainable and equitable growth, billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilization will collapse.

We should promote ISO environmental standards and guides like the Natural Step and Equator Principles, publicize “sustainability report cards” on company practices, declare key habitats off-limits for human development, establish a World Environment Organization with powers like the WTO, create an international environmental crimes intelligence and police unit, and encourage synergy between environmental movements and human rights groups to make clean air, water, and land a human right.

Challenge 1 will be addressed seriously when the average calories per person per day exceed 2,000, the number of hungry people diminishes by half, the global acreage in forests increases for five years, and GDP increases while greenhouse gas emissions decrease for five years in a row.


Regional Considerations

Africa: Africa will be hit hardest by climate change, though it contributes least to the problem. Two-thirds of the forests in the Congo River Basin could disappear within 50 years. Forest loss accelerates desertification and soil erosion, making the continent even more vulnerable to climate change. Huge investments for sustainable infrastructure and productivity are necessary for Africa. Natural resources management planning and training should be coordinated continent-wide.

Asia and Oceania: China has passed the U.S. in CO2 emissions. Air pollution from ozone and soot over Asia is twice the global average. China loses 12% of GDP due to SO2 pollution and $2.6 billion due to farmland pollution. India loses over 10% of its GDP annually due to its damaged environment. Increasing corn production for ethanol and animal feed may limit availability of farmland, while China has to feed 22% of the world’s population with less than 7% of the world’s arable land.

Europe: The EU only reduced 0.9% of GHG emissions, far behind the 8% target by 2012, but is showing some leadership with energy passports for buildings, the products/ecodesign directive, car emissions cap of 130g CO2/km (to be enacted by 2012), and many environmental treaties and initiatives. Iceland plans to become carbon-neutral by 2025. Climate change may benefit Russian agriculture for two decades.

Latin America: The annual net rate of forest loss in Latin America and the Caribbean is the highest in the world. Although ethanol is a cleaner fuel than oil, its accelerated production from expanded sugarcane fields in Brazil is degrading soil and deforesting the Amazonian rainforest. Attacks on land tenure and the breakup of farms into smaller parcels are generating irreversible ecological damage in most countries. Because transnational companies sought short-term earnings that damaged the environment, a new model based on equity rather than just foreign investments is sought.

North America: The success of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth has helped put climate change on top of the UN agenda. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that CO2 is a pollutant. Local governments and corporations are creating their own strategies to cut greenhouse gases; California pledged to reduce emissions 25% by 2020. Canada’s CO2 emissions are now 30% above 1990 levels. Technological efficiencies in nanotech and solar research from this region should help sustainable development around the world.

Graph: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (0C)

Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center with Millennium Project estimates

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