Global population is changing from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. Half the 6.6 billion people today are urban; by 2050 two-thirds could be. About a third of urban population live in “slums,” and the number of slum dwellers could double by 2030. Some 25% of children worldwide have protein-energy malnutrition, which reduces cerebral development. A quarter of the world (excluding Africa) will be over 60 years old in 2050. There will be more people over 60 than under 15 by 2045 according to the UN medium forecast. Today about 65% of the older persons live in developing countries; by 2050 nearly 80% will. The first world got rich before it grew old, but developing countries will have a more difficult time managing, even though they are not aging as fast. Retirement and health care systems and culture will have to change. Population may increase by another 2.8 billion by 2050 before it begins to fall, according to the UN’s lower forecast, after which it could be 5.5 billion by 2100. However, technological breakthroughs are likely to change these forecasts over the next 50 years, giving people longer and more productive lives than most would believe today.
FAO estimates that the MDG target on hunger can be met. But this is largely due to increasing population and not the reduction of hungry people per se. The absolute number of undernourished people has declined by only 3 million since the early 1990s, while it decreased 37 million during the 1970s and 100 million in the 1980s. The number actually increased by 23 million from 2001 to 2003, offsetting gains during the 1990s. There are still 854 million undernourished people worldwide. Climate change and monocultures undermine biodiversity, which is critical for agricultural viability. The factors reducing population growth still need to be reinforced. These include increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality, empowerment and education of women, urbanization, and family planning.
A quarter of all fish stocks are overharvested. FAO estimates that water for agriculture needs to increase 60% to feed an additional 2 billion people by 2030, even as urban water requirements are increasing. About 40% of agricultural land is moderately degraded and 9% is highly degraded, reducing global crop yield by as much as 13%. Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and sanitation produced by more intelligent human-nature symbioses, increased migrations, conflicts, and disease seem inevitable. UN-HABITAT says about one-third of the urban poor are “environmental refugees” due to climate change.
Once thought to be a problem, urbanization is a key to improving the human condition due to its many amenities and economies of scale. Creative financing models are being developed to meet urban housing, water supply, sanitation, and other urban infrastructure needs that could double in a generation. To reduce the economic burden on younger generations and to keep up living standards, people will work longer and create many forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation. Nanotech reduces material consumption per unit of output, while increasing utility and durability. ICT is more optimally matching needs and resources worldwide in real time. Better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, plus genetic engineering for higher-yielding, drought-tolerant crop varieties, will be needed. Currently, agriculture uses 80% of arable land in developing countries, of which 20% is irrigated. Massive efforts are required to maintain fertile cropland. Demand for animal protein may increase 50% by 2020, triggering massive investments into genetically modified food, aquaculture, and stem cells for meat production without growing the animal. Seawater agriculture on desert coastlines could produce biofuels, pulp for the paper industry, and food for humans and animal biofuels, while absorbing carbon and reducing the drain on fresh water.
Challenge 3 will be addressed seriously when the annual growth in world population drops to fewer than 30 million, the number of hungry people diminishes by half, the infant mortality rate decreases by half, and new approaches to aging become economically viable.
Asia and Oceania: China’s 144 million persons aged 60 or over in 2005 are expected to increase to 438 million by 2050. There were 118 boys to every 100 girls born in China due to wider use of ultrasound, easy availability of abortions, and a traditional preference for boys. China may face a labor shortage as early as 2010. India will have more people than China by 2050 and today has more malnourished children than sub-Saharan Africa. Japan has the oldest population in the world, with a median age of nearly 43 years that could reach 55 by 2050. This will force Japan to change its immigrant worker policies and add a robotic labor force. Asians earning more than $7,000 annually outnumber the total population of the United States, Canada, and Europe—laying the foundation for unprecedented consumption. New concepts of employment may be needed to prevent political instability among the 60% of Arabs who are now under 25 and face poor prospects for conventional employment. Singapore plans to add 2 million immigrants over the next 40–50 years to counter aging trends.
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