Although there is no international consensus on how to measure democracy, one composite definition is that democracy is a relationship between responsible citizens and a responsive government that encourages participation in the political process and guarantees basic rights. This kind of relationship has been increasing and improving worldwide. According to Freedom House, the number of free countries grew from 46 to 90 over the past 30 years, accounting for 46% of the world’s population, and for the past several years 64% of countries have been electoral democracies. Since democracies tend not to fight each other and since humanitarian crises are far more likely under authoritarian regimes than democratic ones, the trend toward democracy should lead to a more peaceful future.

While the number of partly free countries grew from 49 to 59, about 2.4 billion people live in 45 countries with authoritarian regimes. About 5.4 billion people do not have access to free media, and more than 80 journalists were killed in 2006. Nevertheless, the emergence from authoritarian to more democratic regimes is being aided by the growth of civil society, media access for pro-democratic actors, long-term economic stability, a focus on citizen participation, transparent judicial systems, e-government with Internet access, increasing literacy, improved quality of governance assessment systems, international interdependence, and the development of a global consciousness. Although making development assistance dependent on good governance has helped in some countries, genuine democracy will be achieved when the people—not external actors—demand government accountability. International protocols are needed to assist failed states or regions within states, and intervention procedures are needed when a state constitutes a significant threat to its citizens or others.

The World Bank’s governance indicators show correlations between a free press, government transparency, and effectiveness, as well as between democratic accountability and a less corrupt government. The Bank estimated that one standard deviation improvement in governance results in a threefold increase of income per capita. It also estimates that more than $1 trillion was paid in political bribes in 2006, roughly equivalent to all military budgets combined. Despite a decade of progress in establishing anti-corruption regulations, 71 countries of 163 surveyed show rampant corruption. The World Bank’s new technical assistance programs and the UN Convention Against Corruption are initial steps to reverse increasing political bribery, as are the many ways the Internet is increasing the opportunity for citizen feedback on public issues. Governments are expected to become more accountable, transparent, and responsive to their citizens. However, democratic e-government also requires e-access, which today is unavailable to the majority of the world, although the success of the $100 laptop might rapidly change this in poorer countries.

The Internet allows self-organization around common ideals, independent of conventional institutional controls, regardless of nationality or languages to improve the future. Injustices in different parts of the world become the concern of thousands or millions of people who then pressure local, regional, or international governing systems to find solutions. This unparalleled social power is reinventing citizens’ roles in the political process and changing institutions, policymaking, and governance. However, the development of methods to counter information manipulation, as well as increased freedom of information transmission, will be important for continued democratic consolidation. Organized crime, methods to tamper with election results, information warfare, and the potential of individuals to make and use weapons of mass destruction are not being addressed seriously enough today to ensure the future of democracy. It is daunting to consider potential synergies among these threats to democracy, but the sooner countermeasures are developed and implemented, the better.

Challenge 4 will be addressed seriously when strategies to address these threats are in place, when less than 10% of the world lives in nondemocratic countries, when the number of armed conflicts (those with 1,000 or more deaths per year) diminishes by half, and when voter participation in most democracies exceeds 60% in most elections.

Graph: Global Trends in Freedom

Source: Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2007

Millennium Project Homepage