Millennium Project
Global Challenges Facing Humanity


4. Democratization
How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

Although there is no international consensus on how to measure democracy, one composite definition is that democracy is a relationship between responsible citizens and a responsive government that encourages participation in the political process and guarantees basic rights. This kind of relationship has been increasing and improving worldwide. According to Freedom House, the number of free countries grew from 46 to 90 over the past 30 years, accounting for 46% of the world’s population, and for the past several years 64% of countries have been electoral democracies. Since democracies tend not to fight each other and since humanitarian crises are far more likely under authoritarian regimes than democratic ones, the trend toward democracy should lead to a more peaceful future.

While the number of partly free countries grew from 49 to 59, about 2.4 billion people live in 45 countries with authoritarian regimes. About 5.4 billion people do not have access to free media, and more than 80 journalists were killed in 2006. Nevertheless, the emergence from authoritarian to more democratic regimes is being aided by the growth of civil society, media access for pro-democratic actors, long-term economic stability, a focus on citizen participation, transparent judicial systems, e-government with Internet access, increasing literacy, improved quality of governance assessment systems, international interdependence, and the development of a global consciousness. Although making development assistance dependent on good governance has helped in some countries, genuine democracy will be achieved when the people—not external actors—demand government accountability. International protocols are needed to assist failed states or regions within states, and intervention procedures are needed when a state constitutes a significant threat to its citizens or others.

The World Bank’s governance indicators show correlations between a free press, government transparency, and effectiveness, as well as between democratic accountability and a less corrupt government. The Bank estimated that one standard deviation improvement in governance results in a threefold increase of income per capita. It also estimates that more than $1 trillion was paid in political bribes in 2006, roughly equivalent to all military budgets combined. Despite a decade of progress in establishing anti-corruption regulations, 71 countries of 163 surveyed show rampant corruption. The World Bank’s new technical assistance programs and the UN Convention Against Corruption are initial steps to reverse increasing political bribery, as are the many ways the Internet is increasing the opportunity for citizen feedback on public issues. Governments are expected to become more accountable, transparent, and responsive to their citizens. However, democratic e-government also requires e-access, which today is unavailable to the majority of the world, although the success of the $100 laptop might rapidly change this in poorer countries.

The Internet allows self-organization around common ideals, independent of conventional institutional controls, regardless of nationality or languages to improve the future. Injustices in different parts of the world become the concern of thousands or millions of people who then pressure local, regional, or international governing systems to find solutions. This unparalleled social power is reinventing citizens’ roles in the political process and changing institutions, policymaking, and governance. However, the development of methods to counter information manipulation, as well as increased freedom of information transmission, will be important for continued democratic consolidation. Organized crime, methods to tamper with election results, information warfare, and the potential of individuals to make and use weapons of mass destruction are not being addressed seriously enough today to ensure the future of democracy. It is daunting to consider potential synergies among these threats to democracy, but the sooner countermeasures are developed and implemented, the better.

Challenge 4 will be addressed seriously when strategies to address these threats are in place, when less than 10% of the world lives in nondemocratic countries, when the number of armed conflicts (those with 1,000 or more deaths per year) diminishes by half, and when voter participation in most democracies exceeds 60% in most elections.

Regional Considerations

Africa: After several years of democratic improvements, sub-Saharan Africa suffered more setbacks than gains in 2006. Freedom House rated just 11 of the 48 countries in the region “free,” 22 “partly free,” and 15 “not free.” The Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance adopted by the African Union in 2007 sets democratic standards to be met by African governments and provides a framework for judging their success. More than 15 elections will be taking place across Africa in 2007. There are proposals to create an African states union and to invest the Pan African Parliament with legislative power.

Asia and Oceania: India is the largest democracy in the world and elements of democracy are emerging in China. Freedom House rates 16 of Asia’s 39 countries as “free”, 12 “partly free,” and 11 “not free.” Only 7% of the region’s population had access to free media in 2006. ASEAN is preparing a new Charter to foster integration and democracy (similar to the EU). Many countries in the Middle East have made some progress on women’s right to vote and hold office, although Israel remains the only country rated “free” in the Middle East, with 6 “partly free” and 11 “not free.”

Europe: The EU is a champion of public participation in policymaking. All 27 EU countries are rated “free,” with the newest members––Romania and Bulgaria––still having to upgrade in press freedom. Currently 7 million illegal immigrants are estimated to be in the EU, with an additional 500,000 arriving each year. New regulations are intended to strengthen the legal system for international migration and immigrants’ integration. Of the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe (non-EU) countries, 4 are rated “free,” 8 “partly free,” and 7 “not free.” In some of these countries, the tendency toward autocracy, corruption, and lack of progressive institutions hinder the democratization process.

Latin America: Latin America has the highest level of inequality in the world, and many countries face corruption and few civil liberties. Yet there were many competitive and fair elections in 2006. Since free-market democracies have not made sufficient progress toward social justice and equity, new and increasingly autocratic populist leaders have received support and are increasing the nationalization of industry. A stronger integration of the region’s countries could help consolidate democracy (as it has done in the EU), improve trade, and fight corruption and autocracies.

North America: National Security Presidential Directive 51 and the Patriot Act have raised concerns about the future health of democracy in the U.S., as have powerful lobbies, increased corruption, and centralization of media. Yet the region’s economic and political freedoms attract immigrants from around the world. Canada is still lacking democratic reforms, especially with an unelected senate and the poor representation of women and minorities in Parliament. Direct voting via the Internet versus representative democracy is being discussed.


Graph: Global Trends in Freedom

Source: Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2007

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