Millennium Project
Global Challenges Facing Humanity


12. Transnational Crime
How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

Transnational organized crime continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counter-strategy. Havocscope.com estimates world illicit trade to be over $1 trillion per year, with counterfeiting and piracy at $533 billion, the global drug trade at $322 billion, trade in environmental goods at $57 billion, human trafficking at $44 billion, consumer products at $60 billion, and weapons trade at $10 billion. McAfee adds cybercrime at $105 billion. These figures do not include extortion or organized crime’s part of the $1 trillion in bribes that the World Bank estimates is paid annually or its part of the estimated $1.5–6.5 trillion in laundered money. Hence the total income could be well over $2 trillion—about twice all the military budgets in the world. Governments can be understood as a series of decision points, with some people in those points vulnerable to very large bribes. Decisions could be bought and sold like heroin, making democracy an illusion.

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime is giving priority to human trafficking, corruption, and reducing demand for drugs. There are more than 27 million people held in slavery today (the vast majority in Asia), far more than during the peak of the African slave trade. UNICEF estimates that 1.2 million children are trafficked every year. The online market in illegally obtained data and tools for committing data theft and other cybercrimes continue to grow. Computer transfers of $2 trillion per day make tempting targets for international cyber criminals. Prescription drug abuse exceeds the use of conventional illegal drugs in many areas, and counterfeiting of these compounds brings additional revenue to TOC.

OECD’s Financial Action Task Force has made 40 recommendations to counter money laundering, and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime has called for national integrated strategies and created the Global Program against Money Laundering. Nevertheless, TOC continues to grow and has not surfaced on the world agenda in the way that poverty, water, and global warming have. It is time for an international campaign by all sectors of society to develop a global consensus for action against TOC, which has grown to the point where it is increasingly interfering with the ability of governments to act. The head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime has called on all states to develop a coherent strategy to counter TOC as a whole, but efforts still focus on pieces of the problem. INTERPOL’s 186 member countries can now directly access the organization’s central database management system (I-link), speeding investigations and cooperation.

Two Conventions help bring some coherence to addressing TOC: the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which came into force in 2003, and the Council of Europe’s Convention on Laundering, which came into force in May 2008. Possibly an addition to one of these conventions or the International Criminal Court could establish a financial prosecution system as a new body to complement the related organizations addressing various parts of TOC. In cooperation with these organizations, the new system would identify and establish priorities on top criminals (defined by the amount of money laundered) to be prosecuted one at a time. It would prepare legal cases, identify suspects’ assets that can be frozen, establish the current location of the suspect, assess the local authorities’ ability to make an arrest, and send the case to one of a number of preselected courts. Such courts, like UN peacekeeping forces, could be identified before being called into action and trained, and then be ready for instant duty. When all these conditions are met, then all the orders would be executed at the same time to apprehend the criminal, freeze access to the assets, open the court case, and then proceed to the next TOC leader on the priority list. Prosecution would be outside the accused’s country. Although extradition is accepted by the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, a new protocol would be necessary for courts to be deputized like military forces for UN peacekeeping, via a lottery system among volunteer countries. After initial government funding, the system would receive its financial support from frozen assets of convicted criminals rather than depending on government contributions for continued operations.

Challenge 12 will be seriously addressed when money laundering and crime income sources drop by 75% from their peak.

Regional Considerations

Africa: Links between African rebel factions, organized crime, and terrorism may be increasing. The number of AIDS orphans is expected to grow to 20 million by 2010; with few legal means to make a living, they constitute a gigantic pool of new talent for the future of organized crime. Piracy along the coasts of Nigeria and Somalia is increasing and believed to finance terrorist groups. Guinea-Bissau is now a major drug trafficking transit point in West Africa. Corruption has become a serious limit to growth in many countries.

Asia and Oceania: ASEANAPOL (ASEAN’s Chiefs of Police) and INTERPOL are working on greater cooperation and have linked their databases, allowing ASEANAPOL databases to be run against information collected by INTERPOL. The Asian Organized Crime Project launched by INTERPOL is targeting Asian organized crime groups worldwide as complex adaptive networks. Asia has the largest number of slaves in the world. Singapore announced that decreasing organized crime is now a top priority. The U.S. military is carrying out a $2.6-billion program for upgrading the Afghan police force.

Europe: The groundbreaking Council of Europe Convention on Action against Trafficking in Human Beings came into force in April 2008 as the first European treaty in this field. EU funds for Bulgaria may be withheld until it makes more progress fighting organized crime. As the Sicilian mafia is hit by high-level arrests, UNODC says the Albanian mafia is the most serious criminal organization in Europe, controlling heroin all over the continent; the Calabrian ‘Ndrangheta is also expanding its activities. The EU has strengthened controls on money transfers across its borders to address trafficking and money laundering, especially in Eastern Europe. Norway has led the development of an international task force on illicit financial flows and their impact on development.

Latin America: Top Mexican government and police officials continue to be assassinated, 5% of the Mexican GDP is laundered, its drug cartels are moving into Peru (where coca output is up about 40%), and the level of violence in the country is increasing, as President Calderón’s war on crime continues. UNODC says crime is the single largest issue impeding Central American stability. FARC computers revealed links with organized crime in all major regions of the world. The U.S.-supported Plan Colombia, lasting six years and costing almost $5 billion, has left cocaine availability, price, and quality unchanged. A serious public health problem has arisen in Argentina and Brazil from the smoking of paco, a cheap, adulterated, and toxic form of cocaine residue.

North America: The U.S. Department of Justice issued The Law Enforcement Strategy to Combat International Organized Crime, which establishes an investigation and prosecution framework that emphasizes priority areas of action against international organized crime. Organized crime and its relationship to terrorism should be treated as a national security threat. Countries must be held accountable for corporations that are involved in criminal activities in their own and other countries. A single European/U.S. operation seized over 360,000 counterfeit integrated circuits bearing over 40 different trademarks. Some 200,000 people are considered to live in slavery in the United States.

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