World energy demand could double in just 20 years. Without major technological changes, fossil fuels will provide 81% of primary energy demand by 2030. If so, then large-scale carbon capture, storage, and reuse should become a top priority. The IEA projects oil demand to grow nearly 40% from 2006 to 2030 and estimates that investments of $22 trillion would be required to meet demand. Some argue that oil production is peaking and will end in 40–70 years. The dramatic jump in oil, gas, and coal prices is making renewable sources more competitive; renewable energy investments reached $100 billon in 2007 and cumulatively could be $7 trillion by 2030. Over 65 countries have national renewable energy goals. Currently only 3.4% of world electricity is generated by renewable sources; 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and 2.4 billion still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating, while billions of gallons of petroleum are wasted in traffic jams around the world.

Given the exponential growth of cars in China and India, decarbonizing transport fuels should be a global priority. Prices for electric car batteries and capacitors are low enough to make fully electric cars competitive, and cars have successfully run on compressed air. Massive saltwater irrigation of coasts can grow halophyte plants and algae to produce 190,000 liters of biofuels per hectare per year instead of letting less-efficient freshwater biofuel production (now 4% of global gasoline consumption) have catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. Space solar power satellites could manage base-load electricity on a global basis, improving efficiencies and transmitting energy to electric grids, providing sustainable abundant electricity for the world. Drilling to hot rock (two to five kilometers down) could make geothermal energy available where conventional geothermal has not been possible. A total of 438 nuclear reactors are operating today; 38 are under construction and more than 300 are either on order or being proposed. For nuclear energy to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, about 2,000 nuclear power plants (average 1 gigawatt) would have to be built at $5–15 billion per plant over 15 years—and possibly an additional 8,000 plants beyond that to 2050. There is not enough U235 to supply them, so thorium breeder reactors would have to be built, which raises proliferation concerns. Another Chernobyl-type accident or nuclear hijacking could halt expansion of nuclear power.

Innovations are accelerating, such as concentrator photovoltaics that dramatically reduce costs; waste heat from power plants, human bodies, and microchips to produce electricity; genomics to create hydrogen-producing photosynthesis; solar energy to produce hydrogen; microbial fuel cells to generate electricity; and compact florescent light bulbs and light-emitting diodes to significantly conserve energy, as would nanotubes that conduct electricity. Solar farms can focus sunlight atop towers with Stirling engines and other generators. Estimates for the potential of wind energy continue to increase, but maintenance problems grow. Plastic nanotech photovoltaics printed on buildings and other surfaces could cut costs and increase efficiency. The transition to a hydrogen infrastructure may be too expensive and too late to affect climate change, while plug-in hybrids, flex-fuel, electric, and compressed air vehicles could provide alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles sooner. The world’s first mass-market plug-in hybrid is coming out later this year from China, and its largest car maker, Chery, plans that half of its cars will be hybrids by 2010, while 40% of its cars will be for export. Unused nighttime power production could supply electric and plug-in hybrid cars. National unique all-electric car programs are being implemented in Denmark and Israel, with discussions being held in 30 other countries.

A global collective intelligence described in Chapter 5 could provide the overviews and details necessary to create more coherent energy policy and better informed consumer choices. Meanwhile, approximately 1,000 coal plants, with production lives of 40 years, are in some stage of planning or construction around the world without CO2 capture. Environmental movements may try to close down such plants, just as they stopped growth in nuclear energy 30 years ago. The world needs coherent energy policies.

Challenge 13 will be addressed seriously when the total energy production from environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row, and when atmospheric CO2 additions drop for at least five years.