Global Challenges Facing Humanity
13. Energy: How can growing energy demand be met safely and efficiently?
World energy demand is expected to increase by between 40% to 50% over the next 25 years, with the vast majority of the increase being in China and India. Without major policy and technological changes (which could be triggered by the BP oil spill), fossil fuels will dominate energy sources, making large-scale carbon capture, storage, and/or reuse a top priority to reduce climate change. The total global renewable energy investment for 2010 is estimated at $200 billion, up nearly 50% from 2009. To meet total energy demand, an annual $1.1 trillion (1.4% of global GDP) is needed, and an additional $10.5-trillion investment by 2030 will be necessary if the world is to meet the goal of keeping atmospheric CO2 concentration below 450ppm. In the meantime, the world spends more than $310 billion on energy subsidies every year. G20 leaders pledged to phase out fossil fuel subsidies in the medium term. Eliminating subsidies could lead to a 10% reduction of GHG emissions by 2050.
Auto manufacturers around the world are racing to create alternatives to petroleum-powered cars. US billionaire Warren Buffett and Germany’s Daimler have teamed with China’s BYD to accelerate electric car production. In 2008, for the first time, the majority of US and EU increases in the production of electricity came from renewable sources instead of fossil or nuclear sources. The total global renewable energy investment for 2010 is estimated at $200 billion, up nearly 50% from 2009, and is expected to continue to increase. Meanwhile, 1.5 billion people have no access to electricity and 3 billion still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Up to a billion more have access only to unreliable electricity networks. In the IEA reference scenario, the number of people lacking access to electricity drops by only 200 million by 2030 and the number actually increases in Africa. The World Bank estimates that countries with underperforming energy systems may lose up to 1–2% of growth potential every year, while billions of gallons of petroleum are wasted in traffic jams around the world.
Massive saltwater irrigation can produce 7,600 liters/hectare-year of biofuels via halophyte plants and 200,000 liters/hectare-year via algae and cyanobacteria, instead of using less-efficient freshwater biofuel production that has catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. Exxon announced its investment of $600 million to produce liquid transportation fuels from algae. CO2 emissions from coal plants might be re-used to produce biofuels and perhaps carbon nanotubes. The global market value for liquid biofuel and bioenergy manufacturing is estimated at $102.5 billion in 2009 and is projected to grow to nearly $170.4 billion by 2014.
Japan plans to have a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030 and may launch an initial experimental satellite as early as 2011. Such space-based solar energy systems could meet the world’s electricity requirements indefinitely without nuclear waste or GHG emissions. Eventually, such a system of satellites could manage base-load electricity on a global basis. Drilling to hot rock (two to five kilometers down) could make geothermal energy available where conventional geothermal has not been possible. A total of 438 nuclear reactors are operating today; 57 are under construction. Hundreds of nuclear power plants around the world are planned for decommissioning, yet costs are very high. Estimates to decommission a nuclear reactor range from $325 to over $500 million. Spent fuel rods are often stored on site. Another Chernobyl-type accident or nuclear hijacking could halt expansion of nuclear power.
Innovations are accelerating: concentrator photovoltaics that dramatically reduce costs; waste heat from power plants, human bodies, and microchips to produce electricity; genomics to create hydrogen-producing photosynthesis; buildings to produce more energy than consumed; solar energy to produce hydrogen; microbial fuel cells to generate electricity; and compact fluorescent light bulbs and light-emitting diodes to significantly conserve energy, as would nanotubes that conduct electricity. Solar farms can focus sunlight atop towers with Stirling engines and other generators. Estimates for the potential of wind energy continue to increase, but so do maintenance problems. Plastic nanotech photovoltaics printed on buildings and other surfaces could cut costs and increase efficiency. The transition to a hydrogen infrastructure may be too expensive and too late to affect climate change, while plug-in hybrids, flex-fuel, electric, and compressed air vehicles could provide alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles sooner. Unused nighttime power production could supply electric and plug-in hybrid cars. National unique all-electric car programs are being implemented in Denmark and Israel, with discussions being held in 30 other countries.
Challenge 13 will have been addressed seriously when the total energy production from environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row and when atmospheric CO2 additions drop for at least five years.
Regional Considerations
Africa: The Nile River has 8,000 megawatts of hydroelectric potential, while East Africa has an estimated installed capacity of 1,800 MW. An estimated 370,000 gigawatt-hours of energy flow through the Inga Dams in the Congo basin every year, but violence and corruption prevent its proper development and management. Only about one-fifth of the sub-Saharan population has access to electricity, compared with about half in South Asia and more than four-fifths in Latin America. Zimbabwe agreed to supply electricity to South Africa during the World Cup, although it is failing to meet domestic power requirements. By 2050, some 10–25% of Europe's electricity needs could be met by North African solar thermal plants. With support from development partners, African leaders agreed to invest $10 billion annually between 2009 and 2014 in renewable energy.
Asia and Oceania: China has 60% of the global market for solar water heaters and over 50% of the market for solar panels, and its energy use per unit of GDP has fallen 14.4% over the last four years. China now produces more cars than the US and Japan and could lead the world in electric car production. Some mining companies are charged "ecological compensation fees" totaling over 35 billion yuan for environmental protection projects. China now uses more coal than the U.S., Europe, and Japan combined, yet at the same time China has emerged as the world's leading builder of more-efficient, less polluting coal power plants. Half of the households in India have no access to electricity. India's $3,000 car may accelerate car ownership in developing countries. The International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) has opened in Abu Dhabi. Samsung released the Blue Earth solar-powered phone made from recycled water bottles. Australia plans to build the world's largest solar energy plant.
Europe: The EU is expected to replace half of its existing electricity plants by 2030 and is on track to generate 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. An integrated smart grid connecting Europe and North Africa could help Europe to meet its electricity demand jus with renewables. In the meantime, EU plans to have 10–12 CCS demonstration plants in operation by 2015 and to make the technology commercially available by 2020. The UK is the largest offshore wind generator in the world. Russia has vast natural energy resources but plans to have 25% of its energy from nuclear sources by 2020.
Latin America: Geothermal, solar, and wind are vast untapped resources for the region, as are gains from efficiencies. Brazil started a $702-million initiative to plant palm trees in deforested parts of the Amazon for biofuel production. Latin American wind energy capacity doubled last year, mainly due to Brazil and Mexico. Brazil produces ethanol for 60¢ per gallon, meeting 40% of its automotive needs; 90% of automobiles produced in Brazil are flex-fuel (can use ethanol or gasoline), and the country has discovered over 40 billion barrels of possible offshore oil under the pre-salt formations in the Santos field. If Venezuela used advanced technologies, its Orinoco heavy oil reserves would be larger than those of Saudi Arabia.
North America: Burning fossil fuels costs the U.S. about $120 billion a year in health costs. The U.S. GDP share of oil expenditures rose from 1.8% in 1993 to 3.8% today. Algae farms for biofuel may cost $46.2 billion per year to replace U.S. dependence on petroleum for transport. UCLA researchers have engineered bacteria, cyanobacterium, to consume CO2 and produce liquid fuel isobutanol. From 2002 to 2008, the U.S. spent $72 billion on fossil fuels subsidies, compared with $29 billion on renewables (which include $16.8 billion on corn-based ethanol). The U.S. now plans to invest $150 billion over 10 years in renewable energy, and President Obama wants 39 mpg for cars by 2016. The clean energy investments in the Recovery Act will create 720,000 job-years by the end of 2012. California requires refineries, producers, and importers of motor fuels to reduce the carbon intensity of their products by 10% by 2020. Pacific Gas & Electric Co. of California agreed to buy 200 megawatts of space-based solar power by 2016 from Solaren. Recycling waste heat from nuclear power plants to home air conditioners and recycling even body heat to recharge batteries could reduce CO2 by 10–20% in the United States. Los Alamos National Lab proved its electrochemical process successfully recovers CO2 from its capture solution for fuel production. About 12% of venture capital investments went to clean energy in 2009.