Global Challenges Facing Humanity
14. Science and Technology: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
Within five years, nearly half the world will have access to all the scientific and technological knowledge available on the Internet via mobile phones. It is reasonable to assume that one day everyone in the world will have access to all of the world’s knowledge that is publically available anywhere, anytime.
As the growth and power of the Internet continues to surprise much of the world, the syntheses among the sciences and resulting technological breakthroughs may have even greater impacts to transform the human condition. The ability to invent life has been demonstrated. The J. Craig Venter Institute synthesized a 1.08-million base pair chromosome to construct the bacterial cell Mycoplasma mycoides JCVI-syn1.0, the first self-replicating synthetic cell. Venter forecasts that as computer code is written to create software to augment human capabilities, so too genetic code will be written to create life forms to augment civilization.
Synthetic neurobiologists are creating “co-processors” for the brain to cure blindness or make us more intelligent. The lab-created Isx-9 molecule can make nerve stem cells mature into brain cells, leading the way to brain regeneration. And other stem cell applications could revitalize any part of the body in the future. IBM plans to have the Sequoia 20-petaflops computer ready for DOE by 2012, which is estimated to be the first computer with the processing power of a human brain. A transistor has been built from seven atoms. There are already machines that can be controlled by thought alone. The acceleration of S&T innovations from improved instrumentation, communications among scientists, and synergies among nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, cognitive science, and quantum technology continues to fundamentally change the prospects for civilization.
Millions of people passively volunteer their computers’ excess capacity to run data analysis programs to help speed up research in biomedicine, mathematics, artificial intelligence, and cancer. Over 50 million volunteer citizen scientists gather and analyze data, dramatically expanding the capacity of scientific research around the world. Patients with rare diseases share real-time clinical data to assist doctors. Free university courses, curricula, and tools in science and technology are increasing on the Web to share extraordinary breakthroughs.
Scanning electron microscopes can see 0.01 nanometers (the distance between a hydrogen nucleus and its electron), and the Hubble telescope has seen 13.2 billion light-years away. The Large Hadron Collider is exploring the nature of dark energy. Photons have been slowed and accelerated, and four photons have been precisely controlled on a silicon chip to learn how to create optical computers. Over 450 planets have been discovered orbiting other stars. A record five photons have been entangled (quantum entanglement is the simultaneous change of entangled objects separated in space) to explore futuristic communications, security, simple teleportation, and the transport of energy. External light can be concentrated inside the body for photodynamic therapy and to power implanted devices. Nanobots the size of blood cells may one day enter the body to diagnose and provide therapies and internal VR imagery. MRI brain imaging shows primitive pictures of real-time thought processes. Magnetic signals from a single electron buried inside a solid sample have been detected.
A new sensor can detect over 2,000 viruses and about 900 bacteria within 24 hours. Extinct mammoth’s blood now lives using ancient DNA. Nanotechnology-based products have grown by 25% in the last year to over 800 items today for the release of medicine in the body, thin-film photovoltaics, super hard surfaces, and many lightweight strong objects. DNA scans open the possibility of customized medicine and eliminating inherited diseases. Viruses have been used to help build efficient batteries that are half the size of a human cell. Transistors measuring 10-by-1 atoms have been produced out of graphene, a material just 1 atom thick—the thinnest material in the world. Graphene may ultimately replace silicon in many nano-electronic applications. Over 12 million robots do everything from routine surgery to building cars and managing farms, even marrying couples in Japan.
Despite these achievements, the risks from acceleration and globalization of S&T remain (see CD Chapter 3.5) and give rise to future ethical issues (see CD Chapters 5 and 11). Do we have a right to clone our selves or bring dinosaurs back to life? The environmental health impacts of nanotech are in question. The spread of new robotic applications, particularly in warfare, has raised questions about the wisdom of autonomous machines controlled by humans on the other side of the world. Many of these advances raise complex issues of international affairs, ethics, and law. Anti-science views proliferate via blogs around the world. However, supporting basic science is necessary to improve knowledge that applied science and technology draws on to improve the human condition. We need a global collective intelligence system to track S&T advances, forecast consequences, and document a range of views so that politicians and the public can understand the potential consequences of new S&T. Currently the InterAcademy Panel, a worldwide network of 100 science academies, is increasing access to S&T information and cooperation around the world, and heads of government science information portals are beginning to collaborate.
Challenge 14 will have been addressed seriously when the funding of R&D for societal needs reaches parity with funding for weapons and when an international science and technology organization is established that routinely connects world S&T knowledge for use in R&D priority setting and legislation.
Regional Considerations
Africa: The Commission for Africa recommended that foreign donors commit to $5 billion over 10 years for African universities' S&T capacity to make sustainable economic growth for the continent. The Association of African Universities networks representatives of nearly 140 African universities. Collaborations continue among New Partnership for Africa's Development, the UN University, the UN Economic Commission for Africa, and UNESCO. Collaboratories could make such collaboration more real. Africa has 83 engineers for every 1 million people, compared with 1,000 per million in the more developed world.
Asia and Oceania: China is expected to pass Japan's R&D investments by 2011. Asian countries with double-digit economic growth also have double-digit growth in R&D expenditures. China, Japan, and South Korea could pass the US in clean energy markets. Energy and environment is the focus of US and China relations. Japan has launched a Venus probe that also carried a space sail that gains its energy from solar pressure in space.
Europe: Although the Lisbon Strategy expired in 2010, succeeded by Europe 2020, the EU target of 3% of GDP for R&D has been kept. Some of the older EU Members have achieved it, but not the newer ones. Russia has lost over 500,000 scientists over the last 15 years, but a reverse trend is beginning, salaries have increased, innovation is encouraged, and high tech is being supported.
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile account for almost 90% of university science in the region, and half of the 500 higher education institutes produce no scientific research. University S&T courses could be required to focus some attention on helping the poorest communities.
North America: About 35% of world R&D is in the U.S., and its total investments for 2010 are expected to the largest ever. Each week the U.S. Patent Office makes thousands of new patents freely available online. Prizes can speed the distribution of technology that benefits humanity, such as the Tech Awards from the Tech Museum in San Jose, California, or Richard Branson's new prize for a plan to remove a billion tons of carbon dioxide a year, as can tech sports like MIT's robot competitions.
