Millennium Project
Middle East Peace Scenario Study
Round 3


On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in a study to create normative scenarios depicting how peace may be achieved in the Middle East.

Over 200 experts identified and rated 108 actions to address seven pre-conditions for peace in the Middle East during the first two rounds of questionnaires of this study. The full results for these two rounds are available in the 2003 State of the Future and have been used to create the three enclosed scenario sketches for your review. An executive summary of the first two rounds is available at http://millennium-project.org/millennium/MEPS.html.

Blank spaces have been inserted throughout these draft scenarios, so that you can provide your judgments about the plausibility of each section of the scenarios and how these sections might be improved. Based on this feedback, the scenarios will be rewritten and used as the basis for interviews with opinion leaders and policy advisors on prospects for the Middle East. At the end of this questionnaire, you are invited to recommend people who you think should be interviewed in the next phase of this study so that the scenarios could become more useful in the peace process.

The Millennium Project is a worldwide effort to collect and synthesize judgments about emerging global challenges that may affect the human condition. Its annual State of the Future and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions. The Millennium Project is funded by sponsors and its research is supported by Nodes around the world.

The results of this research will be of interest and value to decision makers in the Middle East and elsewhere, as well as to international policy research communities and the institutions that fund such research. Those who respond to this questionnaire will receive the report of the study's results in a complimentary copy of the 2004 State of the Future. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants.

Please contact us with any questions and return your responses to arrive at the Millennium Project by 5 March 2004.

If you prefer to respond off-line, you can download an Ms Word (.doc) version of this questionnaire and than email your response as an attached file to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@att.net, or fax to +1-202-686-5179, or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016. Download the Ms Word version http://millennium-project.org/millennium/MEPS-rd3.doc (If a dialog box asks for your authentification - user name and password- just click the "Cancel" button)

We look forward to including your views.
Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn, Director, Millennium Project
Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, Millennium Project

Instructions



This questionnaire presents three scenario sketches for your consideration. Space is provided for you to provide your judgments about the plausibility of key sections and means of improving them. Please take as much space as you need. You do not have to address all three scenarios or all sections within a scenario -- just those related to your interest and expertise. There is also a space provided after each scenario for any additional comments that you think may improve the value of these scenarios for the peace process.

No attributions will be made, but for demographic analysis and so that you can be listed properly in the appendix of the 2004 State of the Future, and so that a copy can be sent to you, please fill in the information below:

 
Name:
 
Title:
 
Organization
My primary employment is in:
Government International Organization Corporation (Business) NGO University Independent Consultant Other
 
If other, please specify 
 
Address
 
Country
Male Female
 
Email address:
Scenario 1. "Water Works"

1.1 What would make the section above more plausible?


1.2 What would make the section above more plausible?


1.3 What would make the section above more plausible?

1.4 What would make the section above more plausible?


1.5 What would make the section above more plausible?


1.6 What would make the section above more plausible?


1.7 What would make the section above more plausible?


1.8 what would make the section above more plausible?


1.9 What would make the section above more plausible?


1.10 What would make the Water Works scenario, as-a-whole, more plausible for the achievement of peace?


Chose another scenario or proceed to the end.
 

Scenario 2: The Open City

2.1 What would make the section above more plausible?



2.2 What would make the section above more plausible?


2.3 What would make the section above more plausible?

2.4 What would make the section above more plausible?


2.5 What would make the section above more plausible?


2.6 What would make the section above more plausible?


2.7 What would make the section above more plausible?


2.8 What would make the section above more plausible?


2.9 What would make the section above more plausible?


2.10 What would make the Open City scenario, as-a-whole, more plausible for the achievement of peace?


Chose another scenario or proceed to the end.
 

Scenario 3: Dove

3.1 What would make the section above more plausible?



3.2 What would make the section above more plausible?


3.3 What would make the section above more plausible?

3.4 What would make the section above more plausible?


3.5 What would make the section above more plausible?


3.6 What would make the section above more plausible?


3.7 What would make the section above more plausible?


3.8 What would make the Dove scenario, as-a-whole, more plausible for the achievement of peace?


4. Additional Comments:
Opinion leaders who you think should be interviewed
Please list those opinion leaders who you think should be interviewed in the next step of this study. If you have their contract information, please include it below. If you have no recommendation, go to the end.
Recommendation 1:
 
Name:
 
Title:
 
Organization
 
Country
 
Tel./Fax:
 
Email address:
Recommendation 2:
 
Name:
 
Title:
 
Organization
 
Country
 
Tel./Fax:
 
Email address:
Other Recommendations:



Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the American Council for the UNU