NATO Advanced Research Workshop
Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning — Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror Strategies
Organized by The Millennium Project, Washington DC, in collaboration with TAM-C FIRS2T group, Israel
Supported by NATO's Science for Peace and Security Programme http://www.nato.int/science
Date: July 24-27, 2016
Venue: CSRA, 3170 Fairview Park Drive, Falls Church, VA 22042 USA; Tel: (703) 641-2000
July 24, 2016
Arrival of the participants
Opening Reception hosted by the Embassy of Azerbaijan, Washington, DC (6:00 pm – 8:00 pm)
July 25, 2016. Terrorism Trends and Security Challenges
Welcome and Introduction of the Workshop (9:00 am – 9:30 am)
The Co-Directors:Jerome C. Glenn, CEO, The Millennium Project, USA, and Yair Sharan, Director, FIRS2T Group, Israel
Panel 1. Overview of Terrorism Trends (9:30 am - 10:45 am)
Terrorists' attacks are on the rise in both number and impact. This panel will focus on the analysis and assessment of trends to set the terrorism threats into perspective, as well as the operational needs for detection and early identification of terrorism acts.
Chair: Theodore Jay Gordon, Co-founder of The Millennium Project, Old Lyme, CT, USA
Philippe Destatte, Director, Destree Institute, “Terrorism Trends in Europe” (Wallonia, Belgium)
Even if knowledge and traditions of fighting against terrorism exist in Europe since the 19th century, the crisis opened in this beginning of 21st century seems very particular as it has both internal and external origins. This contribution about terrorism trends in Europe is based on a year-long research seminar, using the bifurcations method, organized during the 2015-2016 foresight course at the University of Paris-Diderot. The work, entitled Counterterrorism in Europe 2030, managing efficiency and civil rights describes and analyzes trajectories of terrorism and of counterterrorism in Germany, United Kingdom and Spain, in comparison with the French and Belgium systems, hardly struck in 2015 and 2016. It aims to define long-term issues and to outline some answers to the present terrorism challenges.
Karlheinz Steinmüller, Z_punkt, “The world in 2040. Framework Conditions for New Kinds of Terrorism” (Germany)
The presentation starts with a look at the world in 2040 according to existing megatrends, including economic, technological, societal and environmental developments and the global power shift. On this background, possible lines of societal controversies and of political conflicts are drawn, and potential situations of crisis in various parts of the world are depicted. These controversies, conflicts and crises may potentially give rise to new (or revived) terrorist movements with new forms of recruitment, organization, attack, and event exploitation, fostered e.g. by the next wave of social media and digital technologies in general. The presentation concludes with a selection of terrorism-related wild cards.
Arije Antinori, Senior Expert for Organized Crime and Terrorism (EC), Geopolitics and OSINT Analyst, Sapienza Universita' di Roma, “The “Swarm Wolf” Understanding to Prevent the Evolution of Terror” (Italy)
From Mohammed Merah to Omar Mateen, the progressive expansion of the Jihadisphere demonstrates the increasing pervasion and persuasion of Jihadi “culture”. The Jihadisphere is expanding its borders, favouring the convergence of violence, xenophobia, hate speech, extremism and terrorism transforming itself in a huge cyber-“hub of hate”. Turning inspiration into experience, the Jihadisphere is changing its nature moving actors from the support of the Islamic State ideology and propaganda to the “Islamic State of Mind”. In the near future, it will globally interconnect vulnerable and atomized lone actors in “real world”, giving life to a sort of totalitarian “Swarm Wolf” intelligence. Therefore, in terms of prevention the evolution of terror, the author underlines the need to deeply explore and understand the multilayered dynamic structure of the (cyber-)placenta where the “Swarm Wolf” seed is rising.
Panel 2. New and Emerging Technologies and their Potential Use in Pre-detection (11:00 am – 12:15 pm)
Presentation of the results of the Real Time Delphi (RTD) conducted in preamble to the workshop.
Chair: Arije Antinori, Senior Expert for Organized Crime and Terrorism (EC), Geopolitics and OSINT Analyst, Sapienza Universita' di Roma (Italy)
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Futurist and Co-Founder of The Millennium Project (USA)
Yair Sharan, Director, FIRS2T Group (Israel)
Elisabeta Florescu, Director of Research, The Millennium Project (Canada)
While some technological breakthroughs enable the development of increasingly destructive weapons, others will provide security agencies with new pre-detection tools. This panel presents the results of the research and expert-based RTD conducted in preamble to this workshop. The RTD assessed some new technologies and methods that could increase pre-detection potential, along with their likelihood and easiness of implementation, as well as eventual unintended consequences.
Lunch (12:15 pm – 1:15 pm)
Speaker: Pate, Brian, Physical Scientist, Defense Chemical and Biological Technologies Department, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, "Awareness and Forecasting for Countermeasures to Weapons of Mass Destruction" (USA)
Safeguarding the U.S. and its allies from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) requires a coordinated approach to global situational awareness and assessment of technologies and threats, as well as cultivation of improvements in the ability to forecast emerging science and technology trends and their potential impact within this arena. In order for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to meet these challenges, a portion of current activities focus on improving the anticipation of technology-driven emerging and disruptive WMD threats as well as potential countermeasure approaches. I will share selected highlights of these activities within the context of DTRA’s mission.
PM Panel 1. Overview of Current Security Strategies and Challenges (1:30 pm 3:00 pm)
How well current strategies are working and what are the challenges? What is the ratio of thwarted attacks to accomplished or planned attacks? This panel would provide a background and identify gaps, so that hopefully, the new detection techniques will improve the thwart ratio and help catch the cases currently being missed.
Chair: Jerome C. Glenn, CEO, The Millennium Project (USA)
Paulo Mateus Felix, Portugal Intelligence Services (retired), “European Lessons Learned for OSINT Collection Plans” (Portugal)
OSINFO & OSINT. Current constraints in the use of OSINT in daily operations and in low-tech environments. Importance of OSINT integration with HUMINT in CT operations. Real case analysis and outcomes.
Adrian Pop, Director, Centre for Regional and Global Studies, Professor, National University of Political Science and Public Administration, “Security Challenges on the Eastern Flank of the Euro‑Atlantic Border” (Romania)
The presentation addresses several security challenges and scenarios pertaining to the South-Eastern flank of the Euro-Atlantic border: the rise of anti-European, nationalist and populist movements in the EU, the resurgence of separatist movements in the EU, the refugee crisis, the prospects for a two-speed Europe, the security implications of the Ukrainian crisis, the reignition of some unresolved/frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space, the turmoil in Russia, the turmoil in Central Asia, the unfinished state-building and nation-building processes in the Western Balkans, the corruption-organized crime-terrorism nexus, and the new wave of terrorism, including cyberterrorism. Last but not least, the paper puts forward some prerequisites for succesfully combating terrorism.
Reyhan Huseinova, Azerbaijan Futures Studies Society, “Security Issues of the Caucasian and Neighbouring Region” (Azerbaijan)
The struggle against terrorism has become one of main priorities for Azerbaijan. The country has strengthened its antiterrorism laws and is cooperating in the antiterrorism campaigns. Azerbaijan can play the main role in maintaining security in the Caucasus region and in promoting regional cooperation between the South Caucasus and Central Asia countries regarding the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking, as well as energy security. To counter terrorism threats in the region and to reduce current risks, we need coordination among states and joint implementation of the international legal instruments in the following areas: security of the transit routes connecting Caspian energy resources with European markets; address unsolved conflicts; address the rise of militant and radical Islam; to deal with the ecological disaster areas.
PM Brainstorming session; discussions about emerging threats, possible wild cards, current and potential counter-strategies (3:30 pm – 5:00 pm)
The discussions focused on known and potentially expected threats and strategies to address them, also considering some wild cards. In addition to open discussions, the participants were provided templates with questions to stimulate imagination, such as: “Imagine you are a terrorist. How would you use technology xyz to produce the highest media impact?”
Karlheinz Steinmüller, Z_punkt, SF writer, scenarios builder, and group monitoring expert (Germany)
Theodore J. Gordon, Futurist, creator of the “What If” database, RTD, and many participatory methods (USA)
Yair Sharan, Director, FIRS2T Group (Israel)
Official Dinner for all participants (5:30 PM), at the Hilton Homewood Suites, Falls Church, VA
July 26, 2016. New and Emerging Technologies for Early Detection of Potential Terrorists and Terrorism Acts
Panel 1. Overview of New Technologies and their Implementation (9:00 am-10:30 am)
This panel will offer an overview of new and emerging technologies that could be used for improving detection and early identification of potential terrorists and terrorism threats.
Chair: Yair Sharan, Director, FIRS2T Group, Israel
Dirk Helbing, ETH Zürich, “Core Principles of an Information System to Anticipate Extreme Events” (Switzerland) by video
Many kinds of extreme events are rare, i.e. their probability of occurrence is small. This makes it difficult to estimate the occurrence probabilities and expected damage sizes from data, while both the under- and over-estimation of extreme events is very costly for society. To reach an increased accuracy of estimations, biases in the data and information filters used must be reduced to a minimum. This presentation will make some proposals how to build a system that can measure rare.
Paul Werbos, Scientist, Former Program Director at the National Science Foundation, "Neural networks, related technology and emerging uncertainties" (USA)
Recent years have seen a vast explosion in interest in deep learning for applications like face and speech recognition, due to an NSF grant we funded in 2008 which proved that methods we had developed decades earlier really do outperform old paradigms when given a chance. More recent fundamental work can change the game in many ways, some for the better and some for the worse, tightly linked to issues like neuropsychology, like understanding insanity, and related technologies like quantum computing and crypto. See www.werbos.com/Mind.htm
Sorin Toda, Principal Scientist, Invixium Inc., “Biometrics and Fast Reaction to Potential Epidemics” (Canada)
Increasingly, very dangerous viruses--natural or lab-made-- (e.g. Ebola) can be used by potential terrorists, collecting fluids from the infectious sites and spreading them in areas with dense population, around the world. This presentation will focus on recognition of potential threat using biometrics, as well of fast detection of potential epidemics.
Alexander Yehuda, Senior Researcher, FIRS2T Group, “Some aspects and consequences of non-detection: ‘the cost of failure’ ” (Israel)
Since absolute identification and prevention of a potential terrorist are not possible, it is important to recognize the consequences and extent of potential damage, in order to try to minimize casualties, and, of course, at least be prepared for care and treatment as necessary. Some examples will be given for estimates based on calculations of releases of extremely hazardous chemicals, both in outdoor and indoor scenarios, including suggestions for possible measures to reduce the consequences, and allow return to normalcy.
Panel 2. The Cyber Challenge (10:45 am – 12:15 pm)
While many technologies are already known, there is little synergy of their use and on expected new developments in those domains. This panel will bring together experts of different domains and discuss how those technologies could be used together to improve detection.
Chair: Yair Sharan, Director, FIRS2T Group, Israel
Yakir Bitterman, Senior Analyst, TAM-C Solutions, “Cyberterrorism - a Force Multiplier in Globalized Terror” (Israel)
Terrorists use cyber tools as a force multiplier for promoting group objectives. The presentation covers a timeline of the use of the Internet by Islamic militant groups and the effect on these group’s reach and impact. Parallels are drawn between these groups and anarchists as well as the Anonymous collective. Problems to progress and legal pitfalls are assessed as well.
Garry Kessler, Chair of the Security Studies & International Affairs Department and Professor of Cybersecurity, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, “Technologies in Cyberspace -- Threats and Defenses” (USA)
Cyberspace epitomizes an arena where technology is both attack vector and defensive tool. As an attack vector, cyberspace provides a venue for war, terror, and crime, as well as a pathway to disrupt governments, the financial system, and critical infrastructures. Cyber-based technologies also provide a mechanism for intelligence gathering, information sharing and distribution, and protection of data. This session will provide an overview of some of the technologies most applicable to modern-era attackers -- and defenders. Topics will include the surface Web, deep Web, and Dark Web/Tor; Internet Relay Chat (IRC); social media (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, etc.); cryptography, steganography, and covert communication channels on the Internet.
Milan Maric, Director of S&T Montenegro; “Who Acts--Cyber Identity Issues” (Montenegro)
Around the world, Open Government or E-Government services begin to provide more useful information to the public, improve efficiency and transparency of government services, and foster the active participation of the citizens in the decision-making processes. But, sometimes, the IT could be used to reinforce existing administrative and political arrangements, triggering mostly among the young population distrust and negative attitudes. This might lead them to try to disable and block E-Government services or even the whole ICT infrastructure, symbolically showing their power against Government. This could produce panic or psychological unstable impression in a country.
Jari Kaivo-Oga, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, “Identification of terrorists in cyber space: The evaluation of potential role of emerging radical technologies and technology disruption in the field of terrorism foresight” (Finland)
The presentation focus on the future challenges of identification terrorists in cyber space. In the presentation special attention is paid to new available technologies which help identification of terrorist. Author presents first background theories of terrorist profiling and identification with special attention to geographical, behavioral and sociological aspects. In the second phase of presentation author evaluates potential role of emerging radical technologies in the identification process of individual terrorists and terrorist groups. Author presents also key systemic aspects of terrorism foresight paying special attention to advanced weak signal analysis and Wild Card methodology.
Lunch (12:15 pm – 1:15 pm)
Speaker: Roberta Belli, UN Department of Safety and Security, “Terrorism and International Response” (UNDSS)
This presentation gave an overview of terrorism trends using statistics from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), which is an open-source database including information on terrorist events around the world from 1970 to the present. The focus then turned to the role of the UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) within the context of the international response to the growing global terrorist threat. References was made to East Africa (Kenya and Somalia) for a more specific analysis of current terrorism trends and responses.
PM Panel 1. Synergies among Technologies, Collective Intelligence System for Security and Social Aspects (1:30 pm-3:00 pm)
Chair: Philippe Destatte, Director, The Destree Institute, Belgium
Jerome C. Glenn, CEO, The Millennium Project, “The Global Futures Intelligence System” (USA)
“How to keep track and anticipate unprecedented complexity?” The increasing integration of and synergies among future technologies dramatically changes what is possible, as do knowledge explosions from computational science, artificial intelligence, big data analytics, etc. However, these technologies and their synergies produce new security threats. How to keep track of all this, have just in time knowledge/intelligence, and anticipate?` One answer is online systems that foster the continual emergence of collective intelligence from the integration and synergies among data/info/knowledge, software/hardware, experts and others with insight, that continually learns from feedback, to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions, than these elements acting alone.
Olaf Theiler, German Armed Forces, Dept. Future Analysis “The potential “backyard terrorist” -- new Technological and Societal Trends and the Emerging Risks of Emerging Capabilities for Terrorism” (Germany)
Progress in nano-technology, biotech, or cyber will enable high-level equipment further enhancing productivity and wealth of individuals, but also enable them to produce much more deadly weapons, germs and digital viruses than ever before. In such a world of “many to many threats”, the state and the society will have to find new ways to prevent “lone wolfs” and “backyard terrorists” from causing levels of harm, so far only possible for powerful organizations or states. For protection, we will need either surveillance systems potentially endangering democratic freedom or a new social contract, building a world of “many to many defenses”.
Helene Reibnitz, Scenarios & Visions, “Anticipate with Foresight and be Prepared for the Unexpected” (France)
The presentation has addressed three aspects: 1) Get in the mindset of a terrorist: How can Foresight help to understand, anticipate and prevent future terrorist attacks? How can Foresight understand the rational of terrorists? Which methodologies might help to anticipate a terrorist attack? How can security authorities be ahead of a terrorist mindset ? 2) How to prevent terrorist attacks? Infiltrate their networks (having enough people with their mother tongue) Having spies in the upper range of their networks. Support brain research, mainly in the field of recognizing behavioural changes. 3) How can Foresight help to be prepared for the unexpected? Think the unthinkable: apply creative methods. An overview on creative foresight methods and their application field.
PM Group Work (3:15 pm-5:30 pm)
The participants were divided into 3 groups, as per the previous day's brainstorming session to continue with the discussions. Then they worked on sketching some scenario drivers, trajectories, and timelines.
Ethics: Philippe Destatte (Belgium) and Elizabeth Florescu (Canada)
Science & Technology: Karlheinz Steinmüller (Germany)
Counter-Terror Strategies: Helene von Reibnitz (France) and Garry Kessler (USA)
July 27, 2016. Building Meta-scenarios, Policy Considerations and Recommendations
Panel 1: Working Groups’ Reports (9:00 am-10:00 am)
Presentation of the scenario sketches:
Ethics: Philippe Destatte (Belgium)
Science & Technology: Karlheinz Steinmüller (Germany)
Counter-Terror Strategies: Helene von Reibnitz (France) and Garry Kessler (USA)
The Scenrios will be finalised by continuous cooperation among the group leaders and published in the book following the workshop.
Panel 2: Policy Considerations and Recommendations (10:00 am–11:30 pm)
Jamie Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary General, Emerging Security Challenges Division, NATO, “What happened at the Warsaw Summit and How will it affect NATO’s Capacity to Deal with Emerging Challenges”, NATO
Dr. Shea gaive a detailed readout of the main results of the NATO’s landmark Summit in Warsaw and how they are likely to impact NATO’s evolution in the years ahead and its capacity to stabilize both the east and the south. In the second part of his talk, Dr. Shea commented on NATO’s roadmap towards its next Summit and how NATO is likely to develop its role, not only in the area of classical conventional defence but also new challenges such as countering terrorism, treating cyberspace as an operational domain, reinforcing its role vis-à-vis weapons of mass destruction and CBRN defence, energy security and better strategic forecasting and anticipation to cope with hybrid warfare scenarios.
W. Bruce Weinrod, Former Secretary of Defense Representative for Europe and Defense Advisor to the US Mission at NATO, “Political considerations in NATO for Workshop’s recommendations” (USA)
Final Panel: Conclusions and Follow-up Considerations (11:45 am–1:00 pm)
Final discussions and approval of the concluding documents; comments, feedback, and recommendations, planning the printing of the proceedings.
Closing Remarks (1:00 pm – 1:30 pm)
Co-Chairs: Jerome C. Glenn and Yair Sharan
Arije Antinori, Senior Expert for Organized Crime and Terrorism (EC), Geopolitics and OSINT Analyst, Sapienza Universita' di Roma, Italy
Arije Antinori is a counter-terrorism expert with the EU-MENA Counter-terrorism project (EC 2015-2018), CEPOL (European Police College), the EENeT (European Experts Network on Terrorism Issues), is a Senior Expert for Organized Crime and Terrorism (EC), Geopolitics and OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) analyst. He has a Ph.D in Communication Studies, a Ph.D in Criminology applied to Investigations and Security, and 2nd Level Italian Master’s degree in “Crime Investigations: Theories & Methods”.
Roberta Belli, Security Information Analyst, UN Department of Safety and Security
Roberta Belli (Ph.D.) works for the United Nations Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) as a Security Information Analyst in Mogadishu, Somalia. Prior to joining UNDSS in 2012, she was a Researcher and Project Manager of the U.S. Extremist Crime Database (ECDB), a multi-year research project funded by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), a U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence. Her work has focused on exploring the crime-terror nexus through social network analysis and the development of counterterrorism strategies through intelligence-led operations, threat and risk assessments, and situational prevention.
Yakir Bitterman, Senior Analyst, TAM-C Solutions, Israel
Yakir Bitterman is an Intelligence Officer with the TAM-C, where he provides daily analysis and briefings to corporate clients in the finance, energy, agriculture and tourism industries. Focal topics of Mr. Bitterman include cyber-terrorism and cross-border anarchist groups. He is an honors collegiate graduate from Florida Atlantic University (FAU), possessing a major in Criminal Justice and Psychology.
Philippe Destatte, Director, Destree Institute, Wallonia, Belgium
Philippe Destatte serves as Director General of The Destree Institute (European think-tank and Wallonia Institute of Foresight Research, Belgium). He is Associate Professor at the University of Mons and at the University of Paris-Diderot, where he is in charge of the Foresight course. In 2015-2017, he is also Visiting Professor in the International Administrative and Political Reforms André Molitor Chair, University of Louvain-la-Neuve, for a course untitled Foresight, Anticipation and Change Management in the Organisations and Public Policies. He serves as Chair of the Millennium Project Brussels Area Node since 2003.
Elisabeta Florescu, Director of Research, The Millennium Project, Canada
Elisabeta Florescu is Director of Research at The Millennium Project, working with the Project since 1997. She is co-author of several publications, including the “State of the Future” annual reports, the book “Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat”, the report “Environmental Crimes, Military Actions, and the International Criminal Court”, and many articles. She has been one of the principal investigators working on the monthly reports for the US Army Environmental Policy Institute, assessing worldwide environment and new technologies-related issues with potential implications for the military. She has a vast international experience, having lived and worked in several countries: Canada, USA, Romania, and Hungary.
Jerome C. Glenn, CEO, The Millennium Project, USA
Jerome C. Glenn co-founded and directs The Millennium Project and is the lead author for its State of the Future reports since 1997. He has 45 years’ experience in futures research with several think tanks, invented the Futures Wheel and concepts such as conscious-technology, transInstitutions, tele-nations, management by understanding, feminine brain drain, nodes as a management concept for interconnecting global and local views and actions, and definitions of environmental security and collective Intelligence. He wrote about information warfare in the late 1980s, sent his first email in 1973, and was instrumental in banning the first space weapon (FOBS) in SALT II, and getting x.25 packet switching in 29 developing countries during the 1980s. More recently he led the design and implementation of several collective intelligence systems, and wrote the Future Work/Technology 2050 Global Scenarios. He has published over 150 future-oriented articles, spoken to over 300 organizations, written several books, and is the co-editor of Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0.
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Futurist and Co-Founder of The Millennium Project, USA
Theodore Jay Gordon is a futurist and management consultant, a specialist in forecasting methodology, planning, and policy analysis. He is co-founder and Board member of The Millennium Project, a global think tank. He formed the consulting firm, The Futures Group in 1971 and led it for 20 years. Prior to forming The Futures Group, he was one of the founders of The Institute for the Future and before that consulted for the math and policy department at RAND Corporation. He was also Chief Engineer of the McDonnell Douglas Saturn S-IV space vehicle and was in charge of the launch of early ballistic missiles and space vehicles from Cape Canaveral. He is author and co-author of many publications, including the book “Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat”.
Dirk Helbing, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Dirk Helbing is Professor of Computational Social Science at the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences and affiliate of the Computer Science Department at ETH Zurich. He earned a PhD in physics at the University of Stuttgart and was Managing Director of the Institute of Transport & Economics at Dresden University of Technology in Germany. He is internationally known for his work on pedestrian crowds, vehicle traffic, and agent-based models of social systems. Furthermore, he coordinates the FuturICT Initiative (http://www.futurict.eu), which focuses on the understanding of techno-socio-economic systems, using smart data. His work is documented in hundreds of scientific articles, keynote lectures and media reports worldwide. Helbing is an elected member of the prestigious German Academy of Sciences "Leopoldina" and worked for the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Complex Systems. He is also co-founder of the Physics of Socio-Economic Systems Division of the German Physical Society and of ETH Zurich’s Risk Center. In 2013, he became a board member of the Global Brain Institute in Brussels. Within the ERC Advanced Investigator Grant "Momentum" he works on social simulations based on cognitive agents.
Reyhan Huseinova, Founder and President, Azerbaijan Futures Studies Society, Baku, Azerbaijan
Prof. Reyhan Huseynova, PhD of philosophy, Associated Professor at Western University (Baku, Azerbaijan). Reyhan Huseynova is the founder and Chair of the Azerbaijan Future Studies Society, pioneering futures studies in the country, Chair of the Azerbaijani Node of Millennium Project, CEO of the University Foundation Center (UFC), and Vice-President of Azerbaijan-France Friendship Society. She is the author of many publications such as “Problems of Azerbaijan culture in the transition period”, “European experience and Azerbaijani consciousness”, “History of the world culture”, and “On the verge of the New World”.
Jari Kaivo-Oga, Research Director, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland
Dr Jari Kaivo-oja is research director of Finland Futures Research Centre at the Turku School of Economics in the University of Turku. He has worked as researcher for the European Commission in FP6, in FP7 and in Horizon 2020 programs. He has worked for the European Foundation, Eurostat, RAND Europe and Nordic Innovation Centre in various foresight projects. He is adjunct professor at the University of Helsinki (planning and management sciences) and at the University of Lapland (foresight and innovation research). He has worked as expert evaluator in the EU research programmes in the field of security and energy research. Dr Kaivo-oja is nominated to be expert evaluator of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions research program in 2016. He is working as board expert member of European Journal of Futures Research (Berlin, Springer), Journal of Futures Research (Cairo Centre for Develoment Benchmarking, CDB, Cairo) and Eastern European Business and Economics Journal (Riga, Latvia). Dr Kaivo-oja has lectured for the European Science Foundation (ESF, London), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS, Beijing) and Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS, Moscow). He is scientific expert of Future Foresight and Strategic Governance Study Programme at the Kazimieras Simonavicius University in Vilnus, Lithuania. In 2011 he was visiting scholar at Stanford University and in 2012 he was adviser of president Martti Ahtisaari (Nobel Peace Winner), in the Crisis Management Initiative (CMI) with private diplomatic co-operation of Rockefeller Brothers. He is expert member of cyber security group of the Ministry of Defense (Finland) in 2016-2018.
Garry Kessler, Chair of the Security Studies & International Affairs Department and Professor of Cybersecurity, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, USA
Gary C. Kessler is chair of the Security Studies & International Affairs Department and Professor of Cybersecurity at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (Daytona Beach, Florida). He is also the president of Gary Kessler Associates, a training and consulting company specializing in computer and network security and digital forensics. Gary is a member of the North Florida and Hawaii Internet Crimes Against Children (ICAC) Task Forces and an adjunct faculty member Edith Cowan University (Perth, Western Australia). Gary has a B.A. in Mathematics, an M.S. in Computer Science, and a Ph.D. in Computing Technology in Education. He is a Certified Information Systems Security Professional (CISSP), Certified Computer Examiner (CCE), Certified Cyber Forensics Professional (CCFP), and on the board of directors of the Consortium of Digital Forensic Specialists (CDFS). Gary is the co-author of two professional texts and over 70 articles and papers, a frequent speaker at industry events, and former editor-in-chief of the Journal of Digital Forensics, Security and Law. More information about Gary can be found at his Web site, http://www.garykessler.net.
Milan Maric, Director of S&T Montenegro
Milan Maric worked for the Montenegro Army, Central Bank, and government and is the manager of the Montenegro eGovernment Project. He is in charge with the WebPortal of the Montenegro government, the government and national Public PKI CA project for the Government and Post Montenegro, UNDP – SWISS Social card central solution and register for citizen, Tele Montenegro for the Ministry of Science, the Central SW for issuing Visa for non resident visitors for the Ministry of foreign affairs, and other Ministry of information society and telecommunication projects.
Brian Pate, Physical Scientist, Defense Chemical and Biological Technologies Department, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, USA
Dr. Pate is a Science & Technology Manager at the Joint Science & Technology Office for Chemical & Biological Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency. He manages a $13M portfolio focused on (1) interactions relevant to human effects of advanced and emerging weapons threats and (2) identifying and controlling new phenomena to enable breakthrough countermeasures to chemical and biological weapons. He is an adjunct faculty member at the University of Maryland and has recently served as an instructor in biochemistry and in weapons chemistry at Northern Virginia Community College and the U.S. Naval Academy, respectively. Dr. Pate earned a Ph.D. in Chemistry from Indiana University, followed by postdoctoral training at MIT in Materials Science & Engineering. Prior to his current role, Dr. Pate was employed as a Visiting Scientist at the Air Force Research Laboratory, as a Senior Chemistry Specialist at Dow Chemical, and as a Lecturer in Physics, Chemistry, and Materials Science at Central Michigan University. Dr. Pate recently served as Deputy Director for Technology Watch and Horizon Scanning at the Office of Technical Intelligence, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, and he maintains an active interest in using data-driven analytics to improve S&T understanding, investments, and outcomes.
Paulo Mateus Felix, Portugal Intelligence Services (retired), Portugal
Portuguese national, Angolan born, more than 25 years experience in LE and Intelligence. Started in Polícia Judiciária (PJ), Portuguese Criminal Investigation Judicial Police. Member of the first team of intelligence analysts at Europol as a First Officer where, at a later stage, moved to the Special Projects and Liaison unit. Area Director of the Portuguese Intelligence Service (SIS) for 6 years. Currently retired and working as a Consultant.
Adrian Pop, Director, Centre for Regional and Global Studies, Professor, National University of Political Science and Public Administration, Romania
Adrian Pop is Professor of International Relations with the National University of Political Science and Public Administration in Bucharest, Director of the Centre for Regional and Global Studies, and Chair of the Romania Node of The Millennium Project. He has been a Research Fellow with the NATO Defence College, the University of Maryland, and the Norwegian Nobel Institute. He is a member of several international professional associations, part of the editorial boards of different scholarly journals and has extensively published in the fields of history, international relations, security and defence, with a particular focus on East-Central and South-Eastern Europe.
Hélène Ute von Reibnitz, Scenarios & Visions,Vence, France
Ute Hélène von Reibnitz is expert in foresight, scenario planning, innovation, multicultural management for 30 years. She is based in France, with clients in aerospace, automotive, consumer industries, energy, financial services, health care, IT, media, government agencies in Europe, USA, Middle East, Far East, offering services in workshops, strategic and foresight projects, training, coaching in English, French and German. She is author of 3 books on foresight, published in English, French, German, Korean and Russian (see website www.scenarios-vision.com) Hélène is born in Trier, Germany, and is member of several international foresight networks: FEN (Foresight Europe Network), French Node of the Millennium Project, and WFS (World Future society).
Aaron Richman, Director, TAM-C Solutions, Israel & USA
Aaron Richman, former commander in the Israel National Police, is the Director for TAM-C Solutions in the USA and Israel, where he is responsible for the global Targeted Actionable Monitoring Center’s intelligence and research projects and is an assistant professor for the master’s degree Disaster Management program at Philadelphia University. He specializes in homeland security and counter terror fields of study, with specific expertise in suicide bombing response, “lone actors” interdiction and information collection planning. Richman has conducted various research projects dealing with best practices in terror response and command considerations for such incidents.
Yair Sharan, Director, FIRS2T Group, Israel
Dr. Yair Sharan is currently the director of FIRS2T (Foresight Insight Research Security Society and Technology) Group in Israel, active in the security and technology field. He was the director of the Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF) at Tel Aviv University. He is Co-director of the Israeli Node of The Millennium Project. He earned his B.Sc. and M.Sc. in Mathematics and Physics at the University of Jerusalem. He earned his Ph.D. in Physics from the Weizmann institute of Science. Fields of interest are research and science foresight and policy, the impact of technology on national strategy and technology assessment. He coordinated and participated in several EU projects including FESTOS in the security program, PRACTIS in Science in Society program as well as Nano2life and SIAM. He is co-author and co-editor of several books. Current research includes Synthetic Biology, Detection of people with mal-intensions, Lone Actors' Terrorism and more. (http://sharany.wix.com/scientist-site-1)
Jamie Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary General, Emerging Security Challenges Division, NATO
Karlheinz Steinmüller, Z_punkt, Berlin, Germany
Karlheinz Steinmueller is the scientific director and founding partner of “Z_punkt GmbH – The Foresight Company” at Cologne/Germany (www.z-punkt.de), a consultancy that provides foresight services for large, mainly European, companies and for public administrations. Since 1991 engaged in foresight, Steinmueller is a specialist in foresight methodology (esp. disruptions and wild cards), and lectures about it at Free University Berlin. He graduated in theoretical physics and got his PhD in philosophy of science. He has worked in ecological modelling, and has published together with his wife nine science fiction books, three books about foresight and a biography of Charles Darwin.
Olaf Theiler, German Armed Forces, Dept. Future Analysis, Germany
Olaf Theiler, PhD, studied history and political science at the Free University of Berlin, where he also wrote his PhD-thesis on NATO´s reform in the light of conflicting national interests. In 1998, he entered the academic staff of the German Armed Forces Academy of Information and Communication, teaching international relations. In 2007, he joined the Operations Division in NATO´s International Staff in Brussels. 2012-2014 he served in the Strategy and Operations Branch in the German MoD, being responsible for NATO and EU. Since 2014, he now is Head of the Future Analysis Branch in the Bundeswehr Office for Defense Planning.
Sorin Toda, Principal Scientist, Invixium Inc., Canada
Sorin Toda is Principal Scientist at Invixium Inc., developing Biometric products for Biometric Technologies (Facial, IRIS, Palm, Vein). His expertise include: image processing, pattern recognition and classification algorithms, fuzzy logic, neural networks, machine learning, computer vision and expert systems, and development of video surveillance software (ALPRS) and video analytic algorithms. He invented and implemented novel optimization search algorithms and has industrial experience in the domain of algorithm and software development for fast recognition of infectious disease from a small biological sample, such as a human blood.
W. Bruce Weinrod, Former Secretary of Defense Representative for Europe and Defense Advisor to the US Mission at NATO, USA
W. Bruce Weinrod has extensive experience with respect to foreign policy and national security matters. He has held senior positions in the US Department of Defense with responsibility for NATO and Europe, has served in senior positions on Capitol Hill, and has been a policy expert with US think-tanks. As an attorney and international business advisor, Mr. Weinrod has assisted US and foreign companies in achieving policy, regulatory and legislative-related business objectives.
Paul Werbos, Scientist, Former Program Director at the National Science Foundation, USA
Alexander Yehuda, Senior Researcher, FIRS2T Group, Israel
Alexander Yehuda is specializing in hazard analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, studies of the environmental consequences of hazardous releases, research in atmospheric transport and diffusion. He has over 30 years experience in the public, government, and private sectors, in pure and applied research, as well as in various management positions. He has a PhD in theoretical nuclear physics.
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