Millennium Project
Factors Required for Successful Implementation of
Futures Research in Decision Making
Chapter 2. Worldwide Review of Foresight Institutions
by Pacific Northwest Battelle National Laboratory for the U.S. Department
of Energy
In 1996-97, the Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned Battelle Northwest
National Laboratory to study outstanding "foresighting" programs, review
their common aspects, and synthesize the lessons learned from them. DOE
was considering creating a formal foresight capacity and wanted to learn
from the experience of others prior to its own design. Both the AEPI and
the Millennium Project were included in the seven that Battelle selected;
several of the other national programs have been discussed in the previous
section. The Battelle report provides information germane to the current
report; and therefor it is summarized below.
Methods: Battelle found that several methods were used in the
cases they studied; principally: Trend Analysis and Emerging Issues Scanning,
Delphi, and Scenario Construction.
Focus: For many of the cases, the focus was on science and technology
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"either as the sole subject of inquiry or as one of the main driving
forces of the future. However the way this focus is expressed varies rather
significantly across these various programs, with Japan representing one
end of the spectrum (a focus on specific science and technology breakthroughs
with less direct attention to the broader social context) and with Australia
representing the other (a broad focus on defining social, political, and
environmental needs of the future and determining how to influence science
and technology to meet those needs)...."
Areas of Agreement: In all cases the underlying assumption was that
the future is essentially unpredictable; therefore none viewed themselves
as seeking "accurate" predictions, but rather sought ranges of plausible
outcomes. Many saw the process itself as providing the payoff for the activity
since it tended to create a framework for discussion and induce flexible
thinking.
Impacts. Battelle found that
"Foresighting activities cause impacts to organizations (or society)
in a variety of ways most of which are extremely difficult to measure.
As a result, foresighting organizations tend to rely on high-level buy-in
and public legitimization as signs of their effectiveness."
Requirements for success. The Battelle team found that success could
be enhanced by recognizing the following:
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The need for staffs with one or more individuals perceiving a need for
their organization (or society) to consider future issues and to prepare
for future opportunities challenges and obstacles.
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Program champions who are effective in getting a program started, although
programs can also be started by more general efforts.
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Proving responsive to "client" needs (e.g., decisionmakers or societal
needs in the case of national efforts)
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Involving the relevant participants in the process
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Experiencing some kind of legitimizing process"
Chapters 3 and 4 build on and extend these requirements and will be integrated
in Chapter 5: Conclusions and Recommendations
Applications of Futures Research
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