Millennium Project
Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decision Making


Chapter 3. Results of the Interviews

This chapter shares the views of decisionmakers and policy advisors – the recipients or consumers of futures information – about the problems they have encountered with the use of early warning information in their decisionmaking. This second source of information provides richer, subjective information to the impediments to the successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking, and hence, a source of key lessons learned for Chapter 5: Conclusions and Recommendations.

Seventy-four interviews were conducted with decisionmakers and policy advisors via Millennium Project Node chairs around the world. The interviews asked:

    1. The types of impediments that could delay action.

    2.  
    3. For one or two previously identified global issues or opportunities the impediments that they thought could delay specific actions.

    4.  
    5. Characteristics of information that could lead to more timely decisionmaking.

    6.  
    7. The moral and ethical issues that could affect the will to act.
The interview protocol was designed to produce qualitative and judgmental information that could be used by the study team to structure the questionnaires and to identify promising sources for more detailed work.

The interviewees were presented with a list of possible impediments to the timely use of futures information in decisionmaking. They were also asked to add to the list. The given list included:

    1. Financial impediments, such as lack of funding or the fact that the people who ought to pay are unwilling to do so.

    2.  
    3. Institutional impediments, such as the fact that no one has responsibility to act.

    4.  
    5. Political impediments, such as the action interferes with national interests or it has been proposed by a political opponent.

    6.  
    7. Cultural impediments, such as roles of men vs. women, racism, or ethnocentrism.

    8.  
    9. Psychological impediments, such as the fear of making a mistake or looking silly.

    10.  
    11. Information impediments, such as the lack of reliable and sufficient data and information, or the uncertainty of the risk.
The interviewees added several categories: 7. Educational impediments

8. Impediment from lack of policy maker professionalism

9. Non-financial resource impediments

10. Planning system impediments

11. Moral and Ethical Issues
 

Using these categories, the interviewees provided many examples and extensions, which are illustrated below.

Financial impediments
 

Certainly this is an important problem in large projects. Agenda 21 has not been implemented all over the world because of financial reasons.... The poorer the country is, the more important financial impediments become.

Political leaders use the excuse of financial impediments to justify their inaction. It’s a matter of priorities, not money.... Money is being used for secondary and silly projects, and does not reflect visions.... In Slovakia there was a chance to create a nation-wide discussion to create a new vision of a sustainable society, but politicians and policy makers have their own interests connecting with power.

Increasing democracy increases budget accountability; hence, we have to be more responsible on financial matters. Previously, we spent on what ever we wanted.... Resource allocation is based on a model of society that is decades old and does not reflect current society; secondly, the requirement for greater financial accountability actually reduces flexibility.

Too often political institutions only express interest in problems to get money from the state budget. They are less concerned if it is a priority for society as-a-whole or if they are proposing the correct solution. Ministries want the more expensive approach, which is very often less effective. For example, the Russian-American space project is not financially efficient.

I do not think that there are inadequate resources; it is how we use what we have. A great part of our resources is spent on the development of the military complex and more middle-level developed countries are involved in this.

Institutional impediments Sometimes the legal systems do not exist upon which to base the action. We also need new safe international channels, through which sensitive information can travel that also provides protection to sources of information. Such channels exist in the national systems, but not in the global systems.

Institutional impediments are less important in authoritarian regimes.

The lack of institutional and legislative infrastructure is blocking investment into Russian industry…. Banks have money, but there are not many channels, which transfer financial resources to small and medium sized companies. As a rule, banks deal with solid, big clients. There should be some transitional institutions between banks and companies. Also, there is no protection for investors’ rights, which hampers investment.

Why are space opportunities and achievements not implemented in other spheres of activity and in industry? I think that one of the reasons is the isolation of our space agency’s activities from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Industry.

The lack of coordination also affects the time between a problem’s emergence and implementation of appropriate actions.

International political institutions serve the interests of a small part of the population and keep the interests of a couple of nations in the focus. The attempt of some nations to build the world in accordance to their own model and interests will not be successful and is a very dangerous illusion. Partnership of civilization is a model of policy development and implementation of the new millennium, but international and national political institutions do not understand it.... Many developing countries lack the necessary organizations and groups, such as NGOs.

Although it is true that coordination yields better assessments and solutions to social problems, which are most of the time very complex and ill structured, such coordination is one of the hardest objectives to achieve. The problem lies in part in the flawed process of structuring complex problems; the visibility of the problems that each government institution deals with (for example, trading with a neighbor may be higher on the political agenda than the problem of aging minorities).

Political impediments
  Short-term election pressure prevents decisions on long-term issues.... Early warning and action advice should include political trade-offs (Chines energy requirements vs. Global Warming).

Political early warning time horizons are shorter than the lead-time of general humanitarian and social problems. Political early warnings should lead immediately to quiet UN talks to identify solutions. We need to create and use more than just political-diplomatic methods to resolve conflict and then we should be more selective about the methods we use. For example, the Czechoslovakian example was resolved through the World Court through a three years process that reduced the ethnic emotions in the issue. Other conflicts have been resolved by local courts, which removed the political issues. Legal methods should be used more.

The early warnings come without advice on the ultimate trade-offs. As a result, they are hi-jacked by single-issue groups, and governments find it very difficult to adjudicate between the various interests, which do eventually emerge. These issues are not black and white, or even shades of gray, they are often apples versus pears. There is a wide range of uncertainty.... There is no mechanism for arriving at global views - where the emerging key issues are now all global. Even the G8 are, in the context of WTO, in conflict. Ironically, the G9-99 have been more constructive in implementing WTO policies.

Any problem is interdisciplinary and could be solved more effectively and rapidly if different actors are involved from the start.... If we distribute this information post factum then industry and regions need time for adaptation of achievements, but if they are involved from the beginning, then it could shorter time as well as improve financial possibilities.

Consensus among different actors and transparency of policy itself have a great impact and reduce the confusion as to who has the responsibility for implementation.

I don’t think China has political impediments.... The centralized leadership and pluralistic economy will cause conflicts, just as in the current China.... If suggested actions are in conformity with ideology and the key positions of national/international policy, then these actions are accepted. In this case, all of the obstacles play a secondary role.... Contradictions can be solved, financial resources can be found.... Ideology plays the key role. Policy makers will only use the results of this questionnaire that is in conformity with ideology.

Political instability hampers the development of coordinated actions and inhibits the formation of a common view of our present and future.

The problem does not seem to be one of having the information about the early warning, but of recognizing its importance vis a vis the position, interests, motivations, and beliefs of the particular stakeholders. If the decisionmaker or stakeholder does not feel some kind of threat, it may not act upon the information.

Cultural impediments Cultural impediments have to do with inconsistencies or conflicts in the systems of shared beliefs, values, customs, and behaviors that people use to cope with their world and with one another. People will therefore, chose a decision that is in line with his/her beliefs, values, customs and behaviors, that seems logical in that person’s or group’s worldview. A cultural impediment is then relative.

The impediments do not stem from gender roles such as men vs. women or from racism, but the meaningful distinction is based on community size... Small communities are at a great distance from the sources of information, therefore they are more conservative and resistant to changes.

Stereotypes play a very important role at every level of thinking. In order to conform to new realities, one should change their own stereotypes of thinking and behavior.... We are all in a transition to a knowledge-based society. In order to move forward one should understand what is changing around us, what is my (or my corporation’s or my country’s) place in these new conditions, what should be changed and how we should change ourselves, our strategy, our models of thinking, our tools and methods.

The stereotypes of thinking which have been formed within industrial society hamper the development of adequate actions and have resulted in ineffective distribution of financial resources, political barriers and weak political institutions. The strongest obstacle is the paradigm of thinking of industrial society.

Psychological impediments Psychological impediments are reduced by information that reduces the uncertainty of response to a decision.

Some decision-makers do not listen well. For example, an early warning was given to Stalin that stated that the war would begin in 1941, but he didn’t believe it and said, "No, it will start in 1942." In this case, a two-track approach might have been necessary.

Many of political leaders are interested in good jobs, but they are lax about their work. In this respect a great number of countries of central and Eastern Europe are taking on the characteristics of banana republics.

Western society has lost the sense of evolution toward goals.… The cult of leisure has been starting to dominate and at the same time attitudes toward work are changing.... Motivations of people push or hamper the implementation of actions.... Lack of a sense of sacrifice, materialistic attitude.

I do not think that fear of making a mistake should be at the top of the list. Instead, the lack of confidence and morality, and ideology play the key roles. In addition, the loss of goals and ideas, which form the background for building policy at different levels as well as the building of family and the lives of people are key.

Information impediments The most important way to reduce the time from information to action is to give precise information with only the essential information distilled and transmitted by a person who is trusted by the policy maker, but who is external to the usual political-governmental personnel system. The actions suggested to address the early warning should be connected to national objectives and strategy, and communicated in political, cultural, and social terms, not technical terms. Make an information system rather than trust in personal expertise.

In-depth understanding of the problem itself is already 50% of successful solution of a problem…. Provide information that reduces uncertainty of response to a decision.... Well-explored problems provide the opportunity to develop adequate actions, to understand the consequences and mutual influence and interdependence of actions, and different alternative approaches to the problem’s solution. But this is more and more difficult to do: problems become more and more complex; one may observe a lack of information about uncertainty of consequences.... Complexity theory can also help to develop effective actions and mechanisms.

Modeling of different influencing events and their interdependence could provide an in-depth view into the problem and actions. It gives the opportunity to keep the problem under control and to develop adequate mechanisms of regulating, to explore the sequences of actions, linkages between different branches of development in their evolution. Such network modeling gives rise to new ideas, analysis of priorities, and clarifies resource requirement.

Too often previous early warning signals have proved to be unreliable.... I would like to add: the need for an inventory of capabilities which nations and regions have as well as their targets and priorities.

Educational impediments Some leaders are not educated enough to understand the significance of the early warning.... As democracy emerges, it will be important for the public to be educated.... I want to stress the educational impediment that is very evident in developing countries.

I think there is an important role for science and education and even NGO’s to help form policy makers’ world outlook. It could help them understand the new conditions of change, to adapt their actions to ideology, perhaps even to affect ideology itself.

Impediment from lack of policy maker professionalism There are three factors here: professionalism of policy makers and their competence and responsibility.... As a rule, policy makers solve current problems. This does not mean that they do not understand long-term problems and long-term consequences. Non-financial resource impediments Resources may be an impediment: both natural [resources] and talent.… One of the more important impediments is technology. There is an absence of interdisciplinary technologies in the fields of physics, chemistry and biology…. Lack of human expertise…. Indolence… The value is not perceived. Planning system impediments Planning on the Western model: new cars manufactured but not new roads…. Long-term strategy is needed. If one does not have a long-term strategy, it is hard to develop and evaluate current actions and resource distribution.... Too often policies are oriented to the solution of current "hot" problems.... Developing countries tend to rely on several individuals rather than create a regular information system for early warning.... Countries should have an inventory of capabilities to more quickly know what can be done. General Comments Political early warning time horizons are shorter than the lead-time of general humanitarian and social problems. Political early warnings should lead immediately to quiet UN talks to identify solutions.

Early warnings that go public and include very sensitive information can make problems worse. Yet, it is necessary to make some kinds of early warnings public like information about nuclear issues and human rights. Policy makers need a sufficient depth of personnel to provide early warning information. It is difficult for the public to understand why preventive actions cost less than solving the problem when it occurs.

Examples of where early warnings were effective Gorbachev was told that human rights was a growing issue that would not go away. Glasnost was the response.... Early warning about the long range impacts of AIDS lead to large infusions of research money and global education efforts.... The early warnings about nuclear terrorism and the international system are responding reasonably well to create cooperative procedures.... Early warning about the ozone hole led to the Montreal Protocol.

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