Millennium
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1.1 Questionnaires
In the past six months, two questionnaire activities were organized.
One is about the
Environmental Security and the other is about the Global Lookout Study.
The questionnaires were
distributed to some related scientists timely and answers were asked
t send to directly.
1.2 Interview
Based on the "Millennium Project 1998 Global Lookout Interview Protocol",
we selected the
interviewees from those interviewed last or before last year. They
are 10 decision makers or
managers working in administrative offices, 2 working in NGOs, 2 working
in UN organizations,
and 2 working in corporations. We have sent their comments and their
names to before
July 8. The general description of the interview is showed in Section
2.
1.3 Mid-year meeting
On July 10, a mid-year working meeting of Beijing Node was held in Beijing.
16 Node members
including Chair Prof. Wang Rusong and Vice-Chair Prof. Luo Zhaohong
have participated in the
meeting. The contents of the meeting covers the introduction of research
results of last year
and main contents of the book "1998 State of the Future", main works
of the first part of this
year and interviewing results, and the working plan of Beijing Node
in the next six months
which is described in Section 4.
1.4 Publications
Up to now, two issues of Newsletter have been printed. One of them is
a special issue about the
research results of MP in 1997, in which the main conclusions of "1998
State of the Future"
were introduced. The second issue introduced the news and main MP activities
of and of
Beijing Node.
1.5 Seminars
Seminars and workshops on the theme of social and economic conditions
and ecological and
environmental issues in East Asia especially China has been co-organized
weekly by DSE/CAS and
the Beijing Node. Many scholars at home and abroad had given lectures
to the class. During the
past six months, we discussed the indexes system, assessment methodology
of sustainable
development and application cases, the suitable approaches for the
developing countries to
reduce risks and increase opportunities in the future.
2. INTERVIEWING RESULTS
2.1 About the general factors that may impede timely responses
to early warning, many
interviewees think the financial impediment is the most important one
although some disagree to
that, especially to the developing countries. Apart from the impediments
list, some were added
by the interviewees, such as "technology", "natural and social resources",
"natural
conditions", "knowledge including education and personal quality" and
"administration"
impediments which will be limit the implement of the suggested actions.
2.2 The factors that may speedup the implementation of specific
actions addressing specific
global issues and opportunities are to promote education, enhance the
personal quality,
strengthen legal construction, and deal with some ethic issues. Moreover,
it is also important
to attract public attention via media such as newspapers and periodicals,
television, and
public advertisement. Some ones think that it is because financial
impediment is very important
especially for the developing countries that the implementation of
action can only be speed up
through productivity development. At the same time, it is an important
aspect to promote
ethical and moral progress by advocating friendly relationship among
countries, regions,
individuals and that between human and nature.
2.3 Apart from the given example, the typical example is the
understanding of the impact of
human beings on resources and environment. It is this understanding
that accelerates the
implementation of sustainable development and Agenda 21st. About the
information of early
warning, the most important action is that the decision-makers should
consider fully the effect
of long-term benefits and long-term impediments. Besides the public
realization, some ones
stress that the impact of other countries is likely to be more important.
The recent early
warning system is by no means perfect. We have to make more effort
in this field. It needs more
vividly to ensure its effectiveness. In the point view of business,
various warning information
is fairly important for decision making, but this warning information
must be the comprehensive
result of all sorts of forecast analysis. In addition, decision can
be timely and successfully
implemented only after the early warning information is understood
and accepted by most people.
At the same time, the gain of early warning information should come
from multiple channels.
Governments, NGOs, and individuals all could provide such information.
The forms of the early
warning include national documents and research reports etc. The early
warning information
should be scientific and accurate and avoid of political interference.
The early warnings of
scientists should be combined with those of government attached institutions
because some
warnings of scientists are often one-sided opinions due to the constraints
of their background
and action implementation usually depends on government. In other words,
the action
implementation should follow the procedure: early warning of scientists--government
warning--government decision--taking action.
2.4 The ethical issues that can affect decision making are mainly
the governments. That is to
say, the corruption of government is a great impediment. But more common
impediments are the
corruption of some leaders (policy makers or officials) and lack of
responsibility. They
disregard long-term benefits, amongst the common phenomena are that
they do not consider the
interest of future generation. For this reason, the understanding of
sustainable development
and legal system should be strengthened. In addition, the force of
religious organizations
cannot be ignored either. In the listed ethical and moral issue, many
interviewees think it is
more important to care for the future generation. Moreover, lack of
point view of overall will
certainly limit the implementation of action. To some countries or
districts, such as China and
other developing countries, the key impediment is human quality.
3. RESEARCH RESULTS
3.1 Sustainability indicators and comparison: On the basis of
the concepts of Data Mining (DM),
Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD) and Rough Set (RS) Method and
taking the example of the
database of Human development Report, developed by United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP),
we probed the methodology of data mining and indicators refining through
combining machine
reasoning and experts' knowledge and developed a program to treat the
data of more than 300
attributes and 175 nations in 1990-1993, and searched for their correlative
relationships. The
annual attribute space was then reduced to minimum sets through RS
method while keeping its
fundamental characteristics. After screening every year's reduced attributes
and consulting
relevant experts, a new set of comprehensive Sustainable Development
Indicators (SDI), based on
Human Development database (HDD), comes out. Compared with Human Development
Indicators (HDI),
SDI has considered the population and economy structure, resource and
environment statue, time
and space dynamics and development potentials. Furthermore, the new
indicators were used to
check and filter the data errors for those slow changing variables,
and those fast but
regularly changing variables to ensure the data consistence. Finally,
the sustainability of
every county in the world at 1991-1997 was evaluated. The dynamic tendency,
promoting and
limiting factors, the SDI differences and temporal and spatial patterns
were assessed for
different countries. The result shows that RS method has important
academic significance and
application potential on indicator refinery, data processing, noise
filtering and data mining.
3.2 Primary identification of main development risks and main
opportunities in China: The major
issues are laid-off and enterprises transformation; environmental pollution
and ecological
deterioration; institution and legislation and monitoring; continuity
of traditional Chinese
culture; educational capacity; shortage and irrational use of natural
resources; short-term and
locally-orientation of decision making process; low level of eco-awareness
and participation;
ill- management of ecological commons; weak coordination between regions
and sectors; Values
and belief crisis; social security; widening gap between poverty and
richness as well different
regions; population problem (quantity, quality and structure); and
westernizing consumption
styles. The identified opportunities include the economic and politic
reform policy;
decentralized business experiences especially in Hong Kong; plenty
and diligence of man-power
resources; long-history of China's culture; and potentials of oversea
Chinese (capital and
knowledge). All these issues and opportunities are to be added, refined
and ranked.
4. WORKING PLAN OF BEIJING NODE
On the mid-year working meeting, the participants discussed working
plan of Beijing Node in
next six months of 1998 that can be summarized as follows.
4.1 To apply the necessary funds support to launch a research
on the future of the rapid
developing countries in East and Southeast Asia, a region of facing
a new economic and
environmental crisis, at least start a future study on the development
of China in the coming
decades.
4.2 To edit and publish a research report including the translation
of some main research
results of in 1996-1998 and the research results of Beijing
Node and search funds to
publish it in Chinese.
4.3 To fulfill all tasks of MP that asks and to invite
more people to be involved in
Beijing Node activities.
4.4 To develop the Homepage of Beijing Node and to edit one issue
of Newsletter in English and
two issues in Chinese.
5. REQUIREMENTS
5.1 Helps are invited to find supporting agencies for the research
of "Future of East and
Southeast Asia".
5.2 A contact of Beijing Node with in 1998 should be signed
as soon as possible.
Beijing
Node