Demographics and Human Resources

Global Challenges excerpt from the 2010 State of the Future report

This section includes regional views on the following challenges:

Population and Resources

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? [Challenge 3]

Health

What can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? [Challenge  8]

Status of Women

How can the status of women help improve the human condition? [Challenge 11]


Population and Resources

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? [Challenge 3]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: The Africa Factbook 2009 by the Global Footprint Network warns that if current population and consumption trends continue, Africa’s Ecological Footprint will exceed its biocapacity within the next 20 years. Africa’s population doubled in the past 27 years to reach 1 billion. There were two Europeans for every African in 1950; by 2050 there will be two Africans for every European. Only 28% of married women of childbearing age are using contraceptives, compared with the global average of 62%. Food production in sub-Saharan Africa grew in 2008 for the first time in decades, yet about 40% of children under five are chronically malnourished. Very rapid growth of the young population and low prospects for employment in most nations in sub-Saharan Africa and some nations in the Muslim world could lead to prolonged instability until at least the 2030s. Much of the urban management class is being seriously reduced by AIDS, which is also lowering life expectancy. Conflicts continue to prevent development investments, ruin fertile farmland, create refugees, compound food emergencies, and prevent better management of natural resources.

Asia and Oceania: China is growing old before it has grown rich. There were six Chinese children for every one elder in 1975; in 2035 there will be two Chinese elders for every one child. With the one-child policy (to continue for at least another decade), the fertility rate in China has fallen to 1.4 from about 5.8 in 1970. The boy-to-girl ratio in 2009 was 119 to 100; the world average is 107 to 100. China has to feed 22% of the world’s population with less than 7% of the world’s arable land and could face a food shortfall of 100 million tons by 2030. Today, 40% of China’s arable land has suffered from deterioration, and 90% of its natural grassland is affected by deterioration to some extent. India has more than 500 million people under 25, will have more people than China by 2050, and has more malnourished children than sub-Saharan Africa does. Crop yields could be reduced by up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia and up to 30% in South and Central Asia by 2050. Almost 23% of Japan’s population is older than 65; retiring baby boomers will further strain the pension system. By 2025 South Asians may consume 70% more milk and vegetables and 100% more meat, eggs, and fish than today. Asians earning more than $7,000 annually outnumber the total population of North America and Europe—laying the foundation for unprecedented consumption. New concepts of employment may be needed to prevent political instability among the 60% of Arabs who are now under 25 and face poor prospects for conventional employment.

Europe: Six European countries will have a median age of 50 or higher by 2050. Germany and Italy are losing population today. Russia has begun to grow again: in 2009, birth rates had grown 2.9% and mortality rates had dropped by about 3%. The Russian government offers $10,000 when a second child turns three and gives reproduction days off. Rural populations are expected to shrink, freeing additional land for agriculture. Europe’s low fertility rate and its aging and shrinking population will force changes in pension and social security systems, incentives for more children, and increases in immigrant labor, affecting international relations, culture, and the social fabric. Approximately 85 million people (17 %) of EU27 lived below the EU “relative poverty” concept in 2008, and nearly 261,000 people sought asylum in the EU during 2009. 

Latin America: Malnutrition in the region has increased from 45 million to 53 million over the last five years. Brazil leads South-South cooperation on food security, with the President honored as a Global Champion in the Battle Against Hunger by WFP. The share of elderly in Latin America’s population is likely to triple from 6.3% in 2005 to 18.5% in 2050—to 188 million. In several Latin American countries, including Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, the share of the population that is older may already be greater than in the U.S. The population is expected to grow from 580 million in 2009 to about 750 million by 2050 and become 85% urban by 2030, requiring massive urban and agricultural infrastructural investments. Currently, Latin American’s population is growing at 1.3%.

North America: Less than 2% of the U.S population provides the largest share of world food exports, while 37 million people in the United States receive food from Feed America. About 30% of food in the U.S., worth $48 billion, is thrown away each year along with 56 tons of trash. Reducing “throw-away” consumption could change the population-resource balance. An estimated one-third of U.S. corn production in 2009 was used to produce ethanol. The U.S. population could increase to 438 million by 2050 from 309 million today. Biotech and nanotech are just beginning to have an impact on medicine; hence dramatic breakthroughs in longevity seem inevitable in 25–50 years. Global warming should increase Canadian grain exports.

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Health

What can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune micro organisms be reduced? [Challenge 8]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: With 11% of the world's population, Africa has 25% of the world's disease burden, 3% of its health workers, and 1% of its health expenditures. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 66% of all people living with HIV and 75% of all deaths from AIDS in 2009; it has one of the world's worst tuberculosis epidemics, compounded by rising drug resistance and HIV co-infection. Although the prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS continues to fall in Africa, death rates are high enough among professionals to slow African development. Patients on antiretroviral treatment increased from 1–2% in 2003 to 48% by the end of 2009.

Asia and Oceania: Asia is an epicenter of emerging epidemics. Avian flu outbreaks were reported in China, Vietnam, and Indonesia during 2009 and thousands of H1N1 (swine flu) cases were reported throughout the region. China responded with a mass vaccination program at a speed and scale unparalleled in history. It is spending $125 billion over the next three years to support health care reform. Although total statistics for the region may not be reliable, at least 5 million people have HIV/AIDS and, with increases in India and China, this could reach 10 million in several years. Japan's life expectancy at birth in 2008 was 82 years; in China it was 73; in Macau it was 84.

Europe: The aging population of Europe continues to pressure government medical services, while infant mortality under five was cut in half since 1990 and maternal mortality dropped by one-fourth. TB deaths continue to increase in Europe after a 40-year decline, due to increasing HIV/AIDS in Eastern Europe caused mostly by IV drug use. Russian officials have given special recognition to World Vision's HIV prevention programs.

Latin America: The region has the highest life expectancy among developing regions (75.5 years in 2008). The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains stable with 2 million people and 0.6% prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy is at almost 60%. Brazil has shown that free antiretroviral therapy since 1996 dramatically cut AIDS mortality, extended survival time, saved $2 billion in hospital costs, and keep prevalence to 0.6%. Smaller countries such as Belize, Guyana, and Suriname have prevalence rates between 2.1 and 2.5%. Haiti's rate has fallen from over 6% to 2.2% over the last 10 years. Neglected tropical diseases affect 200 million people in Latin America (intestinal worms, Chagas, schistosomiasis, trachoma, dengue fever, leishmaniasis, lymphatic filariasis, and onchocerciasis).

North America: In June 2009 influenza surveillance information showed the U.S. had nearly 28,000 laboratory-confirmed "H1N1/09" cases and 127 deaths, but mathematical modeling showed an estimated 1 million Americans had the 2009 pandemic flu. The U.S. has 1.2 million people with HIV; Canada has 73,000. About 33% of children in the U.S. are overweight or obese, and one survey found that children aged 8–18 years spend on average 7.5 hours a day with entertainment media. The leading causes of death are heart disease and cancer. Genetics-based and molecular research in North America will affect prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of a large number of diseases. Increased food and worldwide mobility raise vulnerability to new infections from overseas. Court rulings based on Mayo Clinic research denied any connection between immunization and autism or related mitochondrial disorders, which it is hoped will stem the global vaccination/autism fears.

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Status of Women

How can the status of women help improve the human condition? [Challenge 11]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: Half of the world's children who are out of school live in sub-Saharan Africa, and half of the world's maternal deaths occur there, as women have little say in their own health care and genital mutilation is still widespread. Women represent 18.8% in sub-Saharan African parliaments, and thanks to a 30% seats guarantee rule, Rwanda became the first country in the world to elect a women-majority parliament. Major cultural changes will have to be made to systematically improve the prospects for the average woman in Africa. Development assistance should be required to include improving the status of women.

Asia and Oceania: Some 18.5% of Asian and 15.3% of Pacific national legislators are women. At least 60 million girls are "missing" in Asia due to the abortion of female fetuses, female infanticide, and deliberate neglect of baby girls. A new ASEAN human rights body will specifically include the protection of the rights of women and children. UNICEF is supporting an anti-child marriage movement in the Indian state of West Bengal, where nearly 50% of girls become child brides and one-third teenage mothers. Many Asian women are achieving socioeconomic independence through microcredit. The Philippines Magna Carta of Women for women's rights in all spheres of society became law in 2009. Australian universities now graduate more women than men, and their women hold 36% of senior executive positions in government and 12% of private-sector management jobs. In the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia, the share of women in total employment is less than 30%. In the Arab States, women national legislators increased from 3.6% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2010.

Europe: Women hold 42.1% of parliamentary seats in Nordic countries, 21.4% in OECD countries (excluding Nordic ones), and 35.2% of EU Parliament seats. Although women represent 59% of university graduates, their employment rate is only 58% and they earn on average 15% less than men. Due to a law introduced in 2003, female representation on Norwegian boards rose from 7% to 44%; similar laws are due to take effect over the next five years in other EU countries. The Council of Europe adopted resolutions that make rape a most serious crime. The Italian government is considering expanding a public school program for over 60,000 girls learning martial arts as deterrence to male violence.

Latin America: Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru modified their constitutions to achieve better gender balance. Women's participation in Latin American parliaments improved after the introduction of quotas in many countries; Chile, Argentina, and Costa Rica have female presidents. Several countries have special skills-development programs for indigenous women, but efforts should increase for women empowerment and their integration as social capital; equal pay and rights for women should be strictly enforced. Women represent more than 60% of college graduates in Brazil. Reducing girls' dropout rate should be a top priority on the education agenda. Institutional weaknesses, "machismo" attitudes, and a patriarchal culture hinder progress in addressing rape, domestic violence, sexual harassment, and equal opportunities for women.

North America: Women hold 28.2% of parliamentary seats in Canada and 16% in the U.S. Men lost four times more jobs than women in the U.S. recession, leaving women over 50% of the workforce in latter 2009 and early 2010. Women held 13.5% of executive officer positions in Fortune 500 companies in the U.S., and 7.2% (the highest ever) in Canada's largest publicly traded businesses. The current U.S. administration pledged to ratify the CEDAW, and the State Department created a new office on Global Women's Issues. The ruling party in Canada announced that it will no longer fund any aid to developing countries connected to birth control/family planning.

Graph: Women in National Parliaments (percentage)

Source: Inter-Parliamentary Union

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