The deadline for responding to the questionnaire
was January 31, 2006. Below is the questionnaire just for your information.
The results of the Delphi and the draft scenarios will be available soon.
English: There are three formats of this Delphi available; please choose the one you prefer:
Simple on-line version (this page)
Standard Word (.doc) version (downloadable)
Real-Time Delphi (or "roundless")
Portuguese: Standard Word (.doc) version (downloadable)
Russian: Standard Word (.doc) version (downloadable)
Spanish: Standard Word (.doc) version (downloadable)
2020 Global Energy Survey
Section 1: Developments that might affect future energy conditions
Section 2: Global Energy Scenario Elements
Section 3: Global Energy Sources
Section 4: New policies
Note: While in the tables, please use "Tab", NOT "Enter" to get to the next cell, since the "Enter" would be interpreted as "End" and the questionnaire submitted. However, if you were "kicked out" and got the "thank you" note, you can go back (hit the "Go back one page") and you'll be pointed back to the questionnaire and can continue. The survey can also be interrupted at any time, submitted, and then next time continued from where it was left (although after submittitng, the previous responses will be recorded, but will not show up when you come back to the survey).
On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in an international study to construct alternative global energy scenarios to the year 2020.
The study has three phases. During the first phase, the Millennium Project’s staff produced an annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports. This was used to design the attached Delphi questionnaire for Phase 2. Your judgments are sought about potential developments that might affect the future of the global energy situation. The results of this survey will be shared with the participants and used to construct draft scenarios which will be circulated to you for comments in the third and final phase.
The Millennium Project is a global participatory system that collects, synthesizes, and feeds back judgments on an ongoing basis about prospects for the human condition. Its annual State of the Future, Futures Research Methodology, and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators around the world to add focus to important issues and clarify choices.
You are invited to use a new “real-time” (or “roundless”) approach to the Delphi method in this study at http://RTDelphi.Energy.org. This method allows you to provide and revise your judgments about potential future energy developments until the study is completed on January 11, 2006. The new approach allows you to return to the questionnaire as many times as you like to view other participants’ comments during this same period (no attributions will be made). You may revise your comments as often as you wish up to the deadline. If for any reason you do not want to use any online approach, or stop in the middle of using it, the questionnaire is downloadable as a standard Word file from: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/energy-delphi.doc, which can be filled out off line at your leisure and returned as an attached file prior to the deadline to firstname.lastname@example.org with a copy to email@example.com and firstname.lastname@example.org.
The results of all three phases of this international study will be published in the 2006 State of the Future. Complimentary copies will be sent to those who respond to this questionnaire. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants.Please return your responses by January, 31 2006. We look forward to including your views in the construction of alternative global energy scenarios.
A series of new global energy scenarios will be written on the basis of responses to this questionnaire. You are invited to provide judgments about statements that will help construct those scenario, such as:
• Estimates of when certain developments may occur.
• Narrative suggestions about elements that should be considered for the scenarios
• Expectations about the contribution of various energy sources
• Recommendations for energy policies.
Your answers will remain anonymous although your name will be listed in the final report as a participant. Please answer only those questions about which you are expert or feel comfortable. Leaving sections blank is a very acceptable answer.
This questionnaire refers to four scenario themes:
1. Business as usual. This scenario assumes that the global dynamics of change continue without great surprises or much change in energy sources and consumption patterns, other than those that might be expected as a result of the change dynamics and trends already in place.
2. Environmental backlash. This scenario assumes that the international environmental movement becomes much more organized; some lobbying for legal actions and new regulations and suing in courts, while others become violent and attack fossil energy industries.
3. High tech economy. This scenario assumes that technological innovations accelerate beyond current expectations, and have impacts in the energy supply mix and consumption patterns, to a similar magnitude as the Internet initiated in the 1990s.
4. Political turmoil. This scenario assumes increasing conflicts, wars, and several countries collapsing into failed states, leading to increasing migrations and political instabilities around the world.
Some factors are common to all scenarios, although they may differ in importance and magnitude. You are invited to judge how they differ.
Delphi conducted by the Millennium Project of the ACUNU http://millennium-project.org
Millennium Project Home Page
Millennium Project Sponsors
Millennium Project Planning Committee