For your convenience, there are two formats of this scenario-draft available for your comments; please choose the one you prefer:
On-line version (this page--fill out online)
Standard Word (.doc) version (downloadable file to be filled out off-line and then emailed as per the instructions)
other scenario drafts available for your comments are:
- Scenario 1: "The Skeptic" (a Business as Usual Scenario)
- Scenario 2: "Environmental Backlash"(explores potential futures resulting from environmental backlashes from nature and the environmental movement)
- Scenario 3: "Technology Pushes Off the Limits to Growth"
InvitationOn behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the third phase of an international study to construct alternative global energy scenarios to the year 2020.
During the first phase, the Millennium Project's staff produced an annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports. This was used to design a Delphi questionnaire that collected judgments and some 3,000 comments from about 150 participants on potential developments that might affect the future of the global energy situation. These results were used to construct draft scenarios. Your views are invited to make these working draft scenarios more plausible and useful. They are for your review only and not for circulation, as they are rough working drafts. This is the working draft of the fourth scenario for your review. It explores potential political problems and conflicts that relate to energy. The three previous scenarios circulated over the past three weeks looked at a business as usual future, environmental backlash future, and future high technology and energy.
The Millennium Project is a global participatory system that collects, synthesizes, and feeds back judgments on an ongoing basis about prospects for the human condition. Its annual State of the Future, Futures Research Methodology, and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators around the world to add focus to important issues and clarify choices.
The results of all three phases of this international study will be published in the 2006 State of the Future. Complimentary copies will be sent to those who respond to this questionnaire. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants.
Please submit your views on Scenario 4: "Political Turmoil" by April 5, 2006 by answering this online form, or by downloading the Word version and then e-mail it back to Elizabeth Florescu email@example.com with a copy to firstname.lastname@example.org and email@example.com.
We look forward to including your views in the final construction of this scenario.
Jerome C. Glenn, Director, Millennium Project
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow, Millennium Project
1. All U.S. dollars references are in 2006 values
2. Built at a cost of $3.6 billion and capable of pumping 1 million barrels a day; see http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/05/206868a6-60ca-4f9a-81f0-dea2f7fbc501.html
3. Such an attack was attempted in June, 2004. See: http://www.globalexchange.org/countries/mideast/iraq/2046.html
5. The Chunxiao/Shirakaba and Duanqiao/Kusunoki fields have been confirmed to be connected at the subterranean level to a gas field that lies within what Japan says is its EEZ. The Tianwaitian/Kashi gas field is also suspected to be directly connected to deposits on the Japanese side.
7. These attacks occurred in 2005-2006 and are reported in http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Nigeria/Oil.html
8. See: http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_1873545,00.html
9. See: Jan 5th 2006, The Economist print edition
Survey conducted by the ACUNU Millennium Project