For your convenience, there are two formats of this scenario-draft available for your comments; please choose the one you prefer:
On-line version (this page--fill out online)
Standard Word (.doc) version (downloadable file to be filled out off-line and then emailed as per the instructions)
other scenario drafts available for your comments are:
- Scenario 1: "The Skeptic" (a Business as Usual Scenario)
- Scenario 2: "Environmental Backlash"(explores potential futures resulting from environmental backlashes from nature and the environmental movement)
- Scenario 4: "Political Turmoil" (exploring potential implications of political instability)
InvitationOn behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in the third phase of an international study to construct alternative global energy scenarios to the year 2020.
During the first phase, the Millennium Project's staff produced an annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports. This was used to design a Delphi questionnaire that collected judgments and some 3,000 comments from about 150 participants on potential developments that might affect the future of the global energy situation. These results were used to construct draft scenarios. Your views are invited to make these working draft scenarios more plausible and useful. They are for your review only and not for circulation, as they are rough working drafts. This is the working draft of the third scenario for your review. It explores potential futures resulting from new technologies; the next scenario will probe the effects of political turmoil. The two previous scenarios look at a business as usual future and an environmental backlash future.
The Millennium Project is a global participatory system that collects, synthesizes, and feeds back judgments on an ongoing basis about prospects for the human condition. Its annual State of the Future, Futures Research Methodology, and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators around the world to add focus to important issues and clarify choices.
The results of all three phases of this international study will be published in the 2006 State of the Future. Complimentary copies will be sent to those who respond to this questionnaire. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants.
Please submit your views on Scenario 3: "Technology Pushes Off the Limits to Growth" by March 30, 2006.
We look forward to including your views in the final construction of this scenario. The fourth scenario will be availabe for comments around March 28, 2006.
Jerome C. Glenn, Director, Millennium Project
Theodore J. Gordon, Senior Fellow, Millennium Project
1. All dollars are in
2. See: http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/
3. See: http://www.singularity.com/
4. See: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/01/20060131-6.html
5. This is an actual occurrence. See: Nicholas Wade, "Petroleum From Decay? Maybe Not, Study Says," New York Times, September 14, 2004
6. Previously the deepest hole in the United States was the Berth Rogers gas well in Oklahoma (6 miles). On the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk, a hole was drilled 8 miles in depth; the temperature at the bottom of that hole was 190 degrees C.
7. See: K. Otsuka and S. Takenaka, "Production of Hydrogen from Methane by a CO2 Emission-Suppressed Process: Methane Decomposition and Gasification of Carbon Nanofibers," Catalysis Surveys from Asia, June 2004, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 77-90(14)
8. See: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0114_050114_solarplastic.html and http://www.nanosolar.com/
9. See: http://hotrock.anu.edu.au/index.html
10. See: http://www.fao.org/docrep/w7241e/w7241e00.htm. This is an excellent FAO report led by some prominent Japanese scientists about renewable biological systems for alternative sustainable energy production
11. See: http://www.syntheticgenomics.com/
12. See: http://www.foresight.org/challenges/energy.html
13. See: http://www.space.com/news/ap_060126_russia_moon.html
14. See: http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMHVXVLWFE_index_0.html
16. See: http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Omega/
17. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_%28power%29
Survey conducted by the Millennium Project of the ACUNU