Governance and Conflict

Global Challenges excerpt from the 2010 State of the Future report

This section includes indicators that can measure change of the following challenges:

Democratization

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? [Challenge 4]

Global Long-Term Perspectives

How can policy making be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? [Challenge 5]

Capacity to Decide

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions changes?  [Challenge 9]

Peace and Conflict

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism and use of weapons of mass destruction? [Challenge 10]

Transnational Crime

How can transnational organized crime be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? [Challenge 12]


Democratization

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? [Challenge 4]

 -- Indicators --

The suggested indicators to measure progress for this challenge were:

  1. Differences in wealth between upper and lower quintiles of population
  2. Voter participation in and frequency and quality of free elections
  3. Rates of economic development
  4. Measurement of levels of corruption in government and society
  5. Percentage of people voting during elections
  6. Percentage of people voting for extreme, non-democratic parties
  7. Assessment of levels of human rights, torture
  8. Freedom of expression, as measured by the number and circulation of independent media
  9. Percentage of population connected to the Internet
  10. Oppressive military and arms sales
  11. Extent of insurrection activity
  12. Direct foreign investment in countries ruled by authoritarian regimes
  13. Rate of funding for projects that benefit local people directly, and over which they have some say
  14. Number of advanced training programs for senior political officials to discuss successful transition strategies in the areas of the rule of law, respect for human rights, free media, tolerance of political opposition, free elections, and an independent civil society
  15. OECD democracy index, which allows immediate comparison among countries. It is composed of an assessment of political stability and indirect factors (i.e. concentration of media ownership)

The indicators most highly rated as per their usefulness and availability were:
[The numbers in brackets represent the order number of the indicator in the original (above) list.]

  1. Percentage of people voting during elections (5)
  2. Voter participation in and frequency and quality of free elections (2)
  3. Percentage of people voting for extreme, non-democratic parties (6)
  4. Rates of economic development (3)
  5. Freedom of expression, as measured by the number and circulation of independent media (8)
  6. OECD democracy index, which allows immediate comparison among countries. (15)
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Global Long-Term Perspectives

How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? [Challenge 5]

 -- Indicators --

The suggested indicators for this challenge were:

  1. Collection of examples of successful use of global, long-term perspectives in policymaking
  2. Funding of Futures research projects and long-term modeling
  3. Extent of long range goals in strategic plans of public authorities and private enterprises
  4. The development and rate of use of alternative decision-making models. (e.g. through scanning of  academic journals, government training programs)
  5. Ratio of legislation on global issues in national legislatures
  6. Number of top government officials who have served in foreign countries
  7. Number of international advisors invited by policymaking leaders
  8. Measurement of progress towards goals of Agenda 21
  9. Funding levels and quality of research activities relating to  political and diplomatic activity, NATO cooperation, economic support
  10. Number of courses offered in colleges and universities on morals, futures and decision-making
  11. The ratio of scientists and humanists in policymaking positions
  12. Number of planning departments at government, ministry, regional levels
  13. Collections of examples of successfully meeting a challenge or of greatly reducing its harmful effects as a result of early warning

The indicators most highly rated as per their usefulness and availability were:
[The numbers in brackets represent the order number of the indicator in the original (above) list.]

  1. Collection of examples of successful use of global, long-term perspectives in policymaking (1)
  2. Ratio of legislation on global issues in national legislatures (5)
  3. Measurement of progress towards goals of Agenda 21 (8)
  4. Number of courses offered in colleges and universities on morals, futures and decision-making (10)
  5. Funding of Futures research projects and long-term modeling (2)
  6. Extent of long-range goals in strategic plans of public authorities and private enterprises (3)
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Capacity to Decide

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions changes? [Challenge 9]

 -- Indicators --

The suggested indicators for this challenge were:

  1. Record the past track record of decision-makers and their public statements and positions on critical issues
  2. Analysis of conflict avoidance and resolution activities
  3. Recording the speed of problem anticipation and attentiveness to win-win solutions
  4. Education of political leaders, including numbers who have education in futures, morals, and conflict resolution, as well as decision-making
  5. Assessments of media coverage of key issues and their biases
  6. Degree of civility and compassion in governance
  7. Level of use of information availability and flow between the electorate and government
  8. Measurement of levels of corruption in government and society
  9. Opinion polls about the correctness of decision making in government, particularly the attitudes of young people
  10. Composite indicator of other 14 challenges indexes
  11. Number of high-quality policy making institutions established
  12. Number of high-quality researchers in this field (measured by their high-quality publications)
  13. Degree of use of decision-making software and computer modeling in education
  14. Measurement of the level of public involvement in governmental planning and decision-making
  15. Number of countries or corporations adopting the "Bootstrap" strategy (analogous to number of companies adopting "Total Quality Management" strategies
  16. Assessment of accountability, transparency, and participation in management of institutions
  17. Assessment of the extent and influence of political campaign financing and its influence on decision making
  18. Assessment of level of participation of NGOs in governmental decision making
  19. Life quality indicators

The indicators most highly rated as per their usefulness and availability were:
[The numbers in brackets represent the order of the indicator in the original (above) list.]

  1. Life quality indicators (19)
  2. Assessment of level of participation of NGOs in governmental decision making (18)
  3. Number of high-quality researchers in this field (measured by their high-quality publications) (12)
  4. Assessments of media coverage of key issues and their biases (5)
  5. Measurement of the level of public involvement in governmental planning and decision-making. (14)
  6. Number of high-quality policy making institutions established (11)
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Peace and Conflict

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism and the use of weapons of mass destruction? [Challenge 10]

 -- Indicators --

The suggested indicators for this challenge were:

  1. Measurements of income and wealth distribution; the economic gap between rich and poor
  2. Levels of race, gender and age discrimination
  3. Number of people killed in conflicts
  4. Arms sales to various countries; tracking both sellers and buyers
  5. Level of hate crime rate
  6. Funding and status of UN permanent peacekeeping capabilities
  7. Participation of ethnic minority groups in decision making and GDP
  8. Assessment of level of human rights violations in various countries
  9. The number of academic and educational publications (perhaps the number of papers) developing more inclusive international and national models for political interaction
  10. Results of research on shared values
  11. Recording and assessment of ethnic issues among the people of the same countries
  12. Number and severity of ethnic issues and conflicts across the border
  13. Tendency of media coverage in conflict issues
  14. Number of refugees and displaced persons due to conflict
  15. The number of days of peace and people not killed
  16. Number of minority groups at risk because of political or economic discrimination and assessment of levels of risk
  17. Assessment of the effectiveness of UN’s international criminal court and tribunals to punish those convicted of atrocious collective and communal violence
  18. Levels of nuclear and biological stockpiles and assessments of their security
  19. Levels of funding devoted to protection against terrorism
  20. Levels of funding for programs that promote respect for diversity and equal rights

The indicators most highly rated as per their usefulness and availability were:
[The numbers in brackets represent the order number of the indicator in the original (above) list.]

  1. Measurements of income and wealth distribution; the economic gap between rich and poor (1)
  2. Funding and status of UN permanent peacekeeping capabilities (6)
  3. Number of people killed in conflicts (3)
  4. Number of refugees and displaced persons due to conflict (14)
  5. The number of days of peace and people not killed (15)
  6. Levels of funding for programs that promote respect for diversity and equal rights (20)
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Transnational Crime

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? [Challenge 12]

 -- Indicators --

The suggested indicators for this challenge were:

  1. Crime and gambling statistics
  2. Statistics relating to illegal drugs and prostitution
  3. Estimates of the total cash value of organized crimes
  4. Apprehension and seizures of weapons
  5. Illegal money flows and “laundering”
  6. Value of confiscated drugs and contraband
  7. Number of ethics programs in primary and secondary education
  8. Measurement of levels of corruption in government and society
  9. Number of illegal entries of crime-related foreigners
  10. Level of legal business activities conducted by crime organizations
  11. Press stories dealing with organized crime: number and quality
  12. Market prices for criminal goods and services
  13. Number of financial institutions and individuals identified, arrested, and prosecuted as being related to organized crimes
  14. Number of countries adopting internationally consistent laws and regulations against organized crimes
  15. Level of intelligence exchanges about crime and criminals (personnel, system, and informational level)

The indicators most highly rated as per their usefulness and availability were:
[The numbers in brackets represent the order number of the indicator in the original (above) list.]

  1. Number of countries adopting internationally consistent laws and regulations against organized crimes (14)
  2. Crime and gambling statistics (1)
  3. Statistics relating to illegal drugs and prostitution (2)
  4. Value of confiscated drugs and contraband (6)
  5. Number of institutions and individuals identified, arrested, and prosecuted as related to organized crimes (13)
  6. Apprehension and seizures of weapons (4)
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