Millennium Project

Future Issues of Science and Technology

-Round 2-

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Invitation

Round 1 Highlights

Instructions

Section 1

Section 2

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Invitation

On behalf of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University, we have the honor to invite you to participate in a global assessment of future issues of science and technology. You have been selected by your country's Science Attach‚ to Washington, D.C. and/or by the senior advisers of the Millennium Project, because of the depth and breadth of your knowledge in areas that are critical to this study.

The Millennium Project is a worldwide system for collecting and synthesizing judgments about emerging global challenges that may affect the human condition. Its annual State of the Future and other special reports are used by decision-makers and educators to add focus to important issues, clarify choices, and improve the quality of decisions. The Millennium Project is sponsored by the organizations listed below with an additional grant for this S&T study from the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. It is also supported by senior personnel and institutions (called project "Nodes") in eleven regions around the world. The viewpoints contained within this S&T study and other Millennium Project reports are those of the international community. They are not views governed or even necessarily shared by the primary sponsors. Rather, the sponsors share a fundamental interest in the future and how different scenarios, suggested by ideas such as yours, provide insights that can help them plan and prepare for different possibilities.

The objective of this three-year S&T study is to seek a broad range of international perspectives on the emerging issues and forces that are likely to influence science and technology programs and their management in the next 25 years. This study is intended to provide useful information in setting long-term goals and strategies.

During the first year, the study is exploring these issues through a two-round questionnaire (the second round is enclosed). The second year will focus on the implications of the first year's results for S&T management. In the third year science and technology policy consequences will be made explicit through the use of alternative scenarios.

Those who respond to this questionnaire will receive the results in a complementary copy of the next edition of the State of the Future. No attributions will be made, but respondents will be listed as participants. The results of Round 1 have already proven of interest to the national and international scientific communities, and the institutions that fund such research. We have included highlights of Round 1 for your information.

Please contact us if you have any questions or need clarification about this request, and return your

responses to arrive at the Millennium Project by 30 April 2001. We look forward to including your views, and to sharing with you the overall results of this research.

Sincerely yours,

Jerome C. Glenn, Director, Millennium Project

Theodore Gordon, Senior Fellow, Millennium Project

Current Sponsors: Deloitte & Touche, General Motors, United Nations University, U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute, and U.S. Department of Energy. Inkind: Smithsonian Institution and Futures Group International

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Round 1 Highlights

Future Issues of Science and Technology

Round 1 asked the panel to rate the importance of a list of 14 questions about future issues of science and technology. The results are show in Table 1: Rating of candidate questions about future issues of S&T. In addition to these candidate questions, the panel suggested 71 new questions. These additions were distilled to 19 by the Millennium Project staff, and then rated as to their importance by the study’s steering committee and Science Attaches to Washington, D.C. This process further reduced the list to 7 questions that are included for your consideration in Round 2.

The respondents to Round 1 also rated actions, developments, and/or answers that were given as possible ways to address the candidate questions. These results are included in Round 2.

An additional 210 new actions, developments, and/or answers were suggested by the respondents in Round 1 to address the candidate questions. These have also been distilled and included for your consideration in Round 2.

Finally, Round 1 included a section on national S&T priorities. Panelists were asked what would be the best investments in basic science, applied science, and technology for their country's future. They were also asked what were their country's current S&T priorities and the major S&T challenges important to their country that would (or do already) benefit from an international collaborative, interdisciplinary approach. The answers to these questions will be included in the next State of the Future to be published in July 2001 and at http://millennium-project.org, along with all results from both rounds of this study.

There were some regional differences among the respondents as to which issues were the most important for their countries. Europeans rated concerns about ethics and biotechnology higher than other regions.

Although more optimistic about the future of S&T than other regions and stressing improvements to science education, North Americans judged “What potential catastrophes could change the world within the next 25 years which science might help to avoid?” as the most important for their countries to address.

The question “What will help bridge the S&T gap between developed and developing countries?” was rated the highest by the Middle Eastern respondants. South Asia rated “How can the chasm between scientists and non-scientists be bridged?” more important than any other region.

Looking across all regions, biotechnology was rated the top national investment in the categories of applied science and international cooperation, and it tied with computers and information systems within the broader category of current national S&T priorities. Education was rated the top national investment in basic science, while energy was rated the top national investment in technology.

Almost everyone considered low cost and safe energy, medicine, and water as leading priorities for S&T, but we have known of these problems for several decades. Despite considerable attention and significant scientific and technological advances in these areas, one could ask why hasn’t S&T solved them yet?

Because science and technology can now pose unintentional as well as intentional future threats that go far beyond almost anything experienced in the past, the issue of scientific sovereignty has come into question. Under what conditions and under whose authority can society intervene in the course of basic science?

The panel used the scale below to rate the list of 14 candidate questions given in Round 1. To reduce the size of Round 2, the results were used to eliminate the three least important questions.

Round 1 scale: If the question could be answered, the answers would be:

5 = Of overwhelming importance/priority

4 = Of great significance
3 = Of some significance

2 = Of minor significance
1 = Counterproductive

Table 1: Average ratings of candidate questions about future issues of S&T from Round 1

Original No.	Questions	Importance Globally	Priority to my Country
1	What challenges can science pursue whose resolution would significantly improve the human condition?	4.47	4.04
13	What potential catastrophes could change the world within the next 25 years which science might help to avoid?	4.14	3.70
2	What future applications of science or scientific research have the greatest potential for danger to human survival?	4.08	3.62
5	What will help bridge the S&T gap between developed and developing countries?	4.06	3.59
3	What are the principal factors that will influence science over the next 25 years?	3.93	3.71
6	What emerging technologies are likely to have the most positive economic impact over the next 25 years?	3.92	3.96
4	What are some seminal, key, or profound scientific developments that might occur during the next 25 years?	3.86	3.63
10	How can ethical consequences be more thoroughly considered in S&T management?	3.82	3.74
7	What are the key emerging international issues in S&T over the next 25 years?	3.80	3.65
8	How can science improve management of the risks induced by scientific research and its applications?	3.77	3.54
14	How can the chasm be bridged between scientists and non-scientists regarding their views on the nature of science, other ways of knowing, social construction, and directions for scientific inquiry?	3.75	3.67
12	Which scientific fields have the greatest potential to improve the other fields of science?	3.64	3.54
9	How can integrity in scientific research be improved?	3.55	3.32
11	How might public perceptions of science change over the next 25 years?	3.43	3.45

So, where are we now in this three-year process? Round 2 is the second and last questionnaire for the first year of this study. The results will be published in July 2001, and used as a basis to explore the implications for S&T management in the second year.

Round 1 Round 2

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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Science & Tech. Issues Implications for Management Alternative Scenarios

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Round 2 – General Instructions

Future Issues of Science and Technology

Round 2 has two sections. Section 1 deals with the original set of S&T questions; it provides the panel’s ratings from Round 1 and asks you to rate the newly suggested actions in the space provided. Section 2 deals with the new set of S&T questions and you are asked to rate an initial set of answers to these questions and to suggest additional items.

You are not requested to answer every question. Just provide your judgments about those items within your expertise and interest.

Since faxes (including handwritten responses) may be difficult to read, please consider sending your response by email to make sure your views are recorded correctly. This questionnaire can be downloaded, filled out on your computer off-line and then sent back by email. Alternatively, you can type your answers without the text of the questions and send them as an email, fax, or letter with just the question numbers and your responses. For example:

Section 1

1.1 # # #

1.2 # # #

1.3 # # #

etc.

Section 2

1A # # #

1B # # #

etc.

text of additional answers

etc.

Of the original list of 14 questions, questions 9, 11, and 12 are not included in Round 2 because they were rated lowest in importance; thus, allowing the questionnaire to be shortened. The answers for the deleted questions will still be included in the appendix of the final report.

Please respond by 30 April 2001 and include your name, institutional affiliation and title, along with your post mail and email addresses and fax number. All responses are confidential, and no attributions will be made.

Please respond by e-mail to acunu@igc.org with a copy to jglenn@igc.org and Tedjgordon@worldnet.att.com or fax to +1-202-686-5179 or airmail to: The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, 4421 Garrison St. NW, Washington, DC 20016, USA.

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Round 2

Future Issues of Science and Technology

Section 1

A list of suggested developments, actions, and/or answers to the candidate questions was provided in Round 1. The panel was asked to rate these suggestions.

The following tables present the average ratings for those items with respect to importance and likelihood, and confidence of the panel about their judgments. Panelists were also asked to suggest additions to the list. The average of the responses are listed below. If you would like to add comments to any of the items, please do so at the end under “Additional Comments” and include the number of the item.

In the context of this study, the attributes of important items include: scope (the number of people affected), significance (the amount of the impact), and permanence (irreversibility of the impact). The following scales were used for rating the developments/actions in Round 1. Please use the same scale in rating the new suggestions to address the questions:

Importance (Import) Likelihood (Likeli) Confidence (Confid)

5 = Of overwhelming importance 5 = Almost certain by 2025 5 = Almost certain

4 = Extremely important 4 = Likely 4 = Very confident

3 = Very important 3 = As likely as not 3 = Confident

2 = Important 2 = Unlikely 2 = Somewhat confident

1 = Trivial 1 = Almost impossible by 2025 1 = Not confident

1. What challenges can science pursue whose resolution would significantly improve the human condition?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
1C. Commercial availability of a cheap, efficient, environmentally benign, non-nuclear fission and non-fossil fuel means of generating base load electricity, competitive in price with today's fossil fuels.	4.38	2.98	3.29
1F. Simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and corresponding delivery systems to treat widespread diseases and epidemics.	4.27	3.48	3.24
1A. Improving the efficiency of water use in agriculture by 75%.	4.21	3.44	3.14
1H. Climate change - understanding and solutions.	4.18	3.12	3.17
1G. Improvements in early detection and tracking systems of pandemics.	4.07	3.78	3.26
1B. Cheap, efficient, means for providing potable water from salt or brackish sources at prices comparable to naturally available water in quantities sufficient to ease global water issues.	4.01	3.31	3.08
1I. Advanced computation and artificial intelligence.	3.62	3.93	3.61
1E. Demonstration of the possibility of an environmentally, economically, and culturally sustainable city of at least 1 million people.	3.48	2.97	3.23
1D. Demonstrate methods to improve collective intelligence while reducing anti-social behavior.	3.34	2.56	2.92
1K. The capacity to manufacture food, goods, and machines atom by atom very cheaply.	3.24	2.55	2.99
1L. Modifying the human germline (the genes passed on to future generations) to enhance health and intelligence, and reduce violent and anti-social behavior.	2.90	2.87	2.89
1J. Human communities in space beyond earth - beginnings of space migration	2.34	2.37	3.20
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Developing advanced strong, lightweight materials that do not corrode, are highly resistant to wear, and easy to recycle.
2. Developing small-scale biogas/biofuels generators.
3. Developing an efficient, inexpensive (e.g. photochemical) process to produce hydrogen from water.
4. Efficient energy storage systems including, for example, spinning wheels, gravitational energy, chemical energy, direct electric energy (cryogen magnets, plasma or ball lightning), hydrogen storage, fuel cells, and developing inexpensive lightweight batteries with a power density comparable to gasoline, little capacity loss over thousands of charge-discharge cycles, and that can be completely and efficiently recycled.
5. Nanofiltering devices for water purification and recycling in households.
6. Developing methods for increasing human creativity.
7. Preserving biological and cultural diversity.
8. Understanding the nature of living matter.
9. Reaching deeper understanding of the quantum foundations of physics.
10. Providing methods for providing inexpensive medical treatment for poor people.
11. Pursuing deeper psychological and sociobiological research concerning the nature of violence and aggressive behavior.
12. Breaking the communication barrier with other live species.
13. Advanced accurate forecasting and planning methods to improve efficiency and integration of large technological systems and enterprises.
14. Pursuing the erradication of mental illness.
15. Developing improvements in nuclear power generation technology.
16. Commercial utilization of desert areas, preparation for biological life and cultivation.
17. Techniques for decreasing soil and coastal areas erosion.
18. Techniques for improving waste water treatment, village sanitation, and urban and rural water availability (in addition to water desalination mentioned above).
19. Better procedures to manage the hydrographic watersheds, especially the international ones.
20. Techniques for improving agriculture, foods, forestry, and livestock production.
21. Improved techniques for waste water treatment and village sanitation.
22. Thought-control technology: identify and neutralize contemporary thought-control apparatus- in media, corporations, politics, academia, UN surveys, and public education.
23. Developing a science and technology of governance; eliminating the reward system that allows some sociopaths to rise to the top.
24. Monetary technology.
25. Unification of physics and economics.
26. New bamboo-based, hemp-based, small-scale production processes, materials and products (e.g. paper, building materials, utensils, apparel, and personal care.).
27. Science, technology and products for moderated consumer lifestyles.
28. Climate control.
29. Low-energy travel means (e.g. zeppelins & all electric vehicles).
30. Apparatus for extraction of nutrients from grass.

2. What future applications of science or scientific research have the greatest potential for danger to human survival?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
2D. Accidentally - or intentionally - released genetically modified organisms that have serious adverse consequences for the biosphere.	4.28	3.31	3.06
2H. Use of biotechnology to build new kinds of biological weapons of mass destruction.	4.16	3.61	3.38
2G. Nanotechnology to build stealthy new means of killing large numbers of people.	3.88	3.04	3.13
2C. Intelligent Nanotechnology evolving beyond human control.	3.74	2.36	3.17
2E. Dissemination of information on potentially dangerous technologies via Internet.	3.70	4.16	3.70
2A. Commercial applications of the human genome information in preconception modification of somatic cells to achieve certain physical or behavioral characteristics of the resulting child and adult.	3.63	3.41	3.30
2F. Resumed nuclear testing.	3.57	3.29	3.19
2B. Development and widespread application of single-species agriculture, for example, the use of a single variety of corn or wheat to produce one quarter of the world's output of that crop, i.e., reduced biodiversity.	3.33	3.14	3.18
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Loss of biodiversity resulting from aggressive, exclusionary marketing strategies encouraging the use of genetically altered, patented varieties.
2. Widespread availability of tailored psychotropes (e.g. programmed dream pills).
3. Human cloning.
4. Technological development of the less developed world to the consumption levels of the US.
5. Use of Internet to promote drug use and other socially undesirable actions.
6. Sophisticated ways (e.g. biotechnology and/or nanotechnology) of tracking, controlling and influencing behavior, the human mind and the private sphere of life.
7. Further erosion of spiritual traditions; the impact of applications of scientific research on psyche and physiology.
8. Elimination of essentially all forms of information and communications security; use of computer technology to track behavior and actions of everyone.
9. The dissemination of virtual reality products that will increasingly confuse people about what is and what is not real and acceptable.
10. More sophisticated military weaponry.
11. Proliferation of nuclear power plants.
12. Super intelligent and potent computer viruses/Internet or Cyber terrorism.
13. Creation of new species (e.g. bacteria, virus, plant, insect).
14. Unintended release of toxic substances with long-term hormonal or genetic effects.
15. Use of biotechnology and/or nanotechnology to rapidly create countermeasures to natural or artificial pathogens.

3. What are the principal factors that will influence science over the next 25 years?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
3F. Education and training of the science workforce.	3.98	3.95	3.82
3C. Economic contraction or collapse.	3.90	3.26	3.41
3I. Scientific information exchange and institutional collaborations.	3.89	4.31	4.18
3A. Publicly visible scientific disasters or achievements significantly affecting public perspectives and thus funding.	3.88	3.61	3.41
3B. Public understanding of the relationship of science and technology to the emerging knowledge economy.	3.78	3.47	3.56
3E. Institutions that encourage/enable multi-disciplinary research.	3.59	3.87	3.69
3H. Disparity between developed and less developed nations.	3.39	4.10	3.96
3G. International competition for scientists.	3.39	4.04	3.98
3D. The rise of belief systems that challenge scientific epistemology.	3.38	3.00	3.34
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Increased corporate or private sector control of scientific research and development.
2. Increasing legal impediments to scholarly exchange and the use of research results.
3. Unanticipated scientific discoveries leading to the creation of new paradigms and the application of discoveries made in tone discipline by others.
4. Change in focus of interest (and funding) moving away from computing to biological sciences.
5. Increasing esotericism - inability to communicate between disciplines.
6. International sharing of major infrastructure such as synchrotrons, accelerators, reactors, biotechnology facilities etc.
7. National prestige in scientific activities in the world.
8. Reduced curiosity and enthusiasm of human beings, related to concentration on the consumerism life style.
9. Development of wider epistemology; scientific study of “values”, and the role of the Divine.
10. Teaching the importance of science in school.
11. Integrated coordinated international planning.
12. Availability of resources for the conduct of science.
13. The ability of the scientific community to overcome the ethical challenges and creation of effective ethical codes followed by all scientists.
14. Scientists acquiring capabilities to effectively understand how to connect with people on the streets, and making his work directly related to people’s needs.
15. The decreased return on investment in S &T.
16. Increased dialogue between scientists, policy makers, and managers.
17. Wars that accelerate the pace of technological development by demand.
18. Oppressive new and strong bans on certain kinds of research at the behest of religious and/or political fanatics.

4. What are some seminal, key, or profound scientific developments that might occur during the next 25 years?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
4H. Fusion or some other forms of cheap, abundant power with minimal adverse environmental consequences.	4.41	2.92	3.16
4D. Discovery of the underlying principle, "the final theory" that links quantum physics and relativity to explain the range of particles and forces that make up the universe.	3.83	2.71	2.95
4F. Computers that achieve awareness and can evolve.	3.80	2.80	3.15
4M. Capacity to build things cheaply and reliably by moving individual atoms and molecules.	3.76	2.84	3.04
4G. Self-replicating nano-robots or biochemical structures.	3.73	3.07	2.96
4I. Computational simulation that obviates the need for many large, costly experiments.	3.68	3.66	3.38
4B. Discovery of means for controlling gravity.	3.59	2.09	3.14
4A. Positive means for controlling the rate of aging of human beings.	3.53	3.22	3.18
4E. Discovery of a signal or evidence of extra terrestrial life.	3.52	2.39	2.88
4J. Widespread space-based research, ranging from biology to physics.	3.43	3.40	3.24
4L. Human appendage regeneration.	3.40	2.98	2.94
4K. Ability to manipulate or "warp" space.	3.33	2.04	2.94
4C. Acceptable means to "correct" low intelligence.	3.16	2.59	2.92
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Human-computer symbiosis, such as intelligent transceivers in or on the body, brain boosters, e.g. electro-bio-chemical processors with integrated random-access memories and telecommunication circuits.
2. Remote microprobes that can be implanted in, or circulated through, living organisms or deployed in extreme environments, such as the depth of the Earth's crust to collect chemical and physical data continuously and relatively inexpensively.
3. Telesurgery equipment carried on ambulances and stationed at places where many people work or congregate to provide nearly omnipresent specialized medical expertise and skills to stabilize victims of accidents, violence, strokes, and other medical emergencies, before it is too late.
4. Capacity to simulate and experiment with the brain's neurological functional modules, to diagnose disorders and provide therapy for example Parkinson’s, ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis), etc.
5. Reducing the cost of solar cell manufacture to less than $0.50 per watt.
6. Elucidation of the most effective energy saving system found in the living organisms.
7. The use of genetic information in clinical practice.
8. Radical change in understanding of the foundations of quantum mechanics.
9. The serious research of parapsychological and spiritual phenomena.
10. Holistic device to diagnose integrative health and interaction of all systems.
11. Increasing usage of ceramics, replacing metals in extreme environments like engines.
12. Major advances in information theory, computer technology, and telecommunications.
13. Economics and sociology becoming sciences.
14. Learning to alter genome to create new or revive old species of animals.
15. Discovering of further general principles of complex systems.
16. Salt water rice.
17. Low cost mobile apparatus for water purification.
18. Self-replicating robotic systems for factories, possibly using nanotechnology to make the chips and some of their sensors.
19. Increased use of non-rocket means of space propulsion with corresponding reductions in cost.

5. What will help bridge the S&T gap between developed and developing countries?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
5F. Education and training.	4.34	3.85	3.65
5B. Very low cost, multi-purpose, portable computer communications useful to the poor majority to begin to enter the education, economic, and health systems beyond their village.	4.02	3.77	3.61
5E. A new economics that effectively rewards innovation and work but distributes wealth more evenly.	3.91	2.70	3.21
5C. More flexible exchange programs that allow reciprocal residency and internships in research labs of other countries.	3.60	3.82	3.46
5A. Use of collaboratories for tele-science so that people can work as if they were in one lab even though they are in different locations around the world.	3.55	4.03	3.73
5D. Deliberate introduction of more programs that require international cooperation, such as the International Space Station and the Human Genome Project.	3.35	3.83	3.50
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Breaking down the new iron curtain between North and South.
2. If the pressure of overpopulation ends, many more countries will be able to afford (basic) science (like China, India, Brazil or Indonesia, etc.).
3. Developing cassette colleges for developing world.
4. Access to the Internet by all.
5. Development of an effective all language simultaneous voice translation system.
6. True understanding of how to bridge gaps for doing business with people from different cultures, while respecting and preserving cultural values.
7. Partnership for development; joint implementation between rich and poor.
8. Establishing ethical market economy systems and elimination or reduction of corruption.
9. Giving research contracts to scientists in less expensive countries.
10. Deliberate science and technology specialization by developing countries.
11. More open-minded/pragmatic/results-oriented public servants in developing countries.
12. Expansion of global competition.
13. Establishing institutions that further the cultural evolution of democracy.

6. What emerging technologies are likely to have the most positive economic impact over the next 25 years?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
6E. New, clean and inexpensive energy technologies	4.56	3.33	3.48
6A. Medicines derived from the knowledge founded in the Human Genome Project	4.03	3.91	3.52
6D. Nanotechnologies.	4.00	3.74	3.42
6F. Genetically engineered products.	3.83	4.11	3.70
6C. Increased bandwidth capacity for multi-media communications for all Internet users at affordable price.	3.71	4.21	3.87
6G. "True" artificial intelligence.	3.62	2.94	3.19
6B. Low cost handheld portable computers with satellite access.	3.58	4.29	4.00
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Precision agriculture.
2. Much improved medical diagnostics through the use of techniques such as relatively inexpensive personal wearable and implant cable health monitors.
3. New materials such as high-temperature superconductors and Buckyballs, biocompatible implants.
4. Publicly acceptable systems of energy generation by nuclear fission using advances in information technology for safety, operation, and monitoring; and control of the nuclear waste stream by means such as transmutation, with acceptable means of waste storage.
5. Sophisticated methods of managing and USING local resources (energy, agriculture, natural medicine).
6. Alternative energy sources.
7. The use of cheap computing power to spread micro credit to the poorest of the poor.
8. The use of cheap computing power and the internet to educate the poorest of the poor.
9. Low cost production of food.
10. Low cost water purification and desalination.
11. Global rules and institution – global governance (not global government) with practical techniques that radically reduce the occurrence of wars.
12. Radical increase of virtual reality products.
13. Waste treatment, recycling.
14. Growth of mass transportation at the expense of individual car transportation and development of more efficient and environmentally acceptable transportation.
15. The "emerging" technology of statecraft, which is in its Dark Ages now.

7. What are the key emerging international issues in S&T over the next 25 years?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
7C. Assuring that projects that can have deleterious consequences (from environmental pollution to tools for terrorists) have full visibility and public scrutiny, no matter where they occur.	3.94	3.10	3.20
7H. How economic interests sort out in an increasingly multi-national world of S&T investments and collaborations.	3.91	3.81	3.36
7B. International scientific boards that define terms, standards, and measurements for environmentally friendly technologies and their production.	3.80	3.49	3.33
7E. Public ownership of intellectual property critical to serve the public good.	3.74	2.92	3.20
7G. Complexity and increasingly multi-disciplinary aspects of R&D.	3.72	3.89	3.64
7F. Information management and information overload.	3.72	3.75	3.47
7D. Shortages of new scientists.	3.71	3.09	3.43
7A. Establishment of principles for international scientific collaboration.	3.40	3.17	3.23
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Global justice in access to information.
2. The slanting of scientific research toward weaponry rather than needed developments.
3. Proliferating complexity of large technological systems and of non-transparent software leading to instability and gridlock of biggest metropolises.
4. Open ownership of intellectual property such as Linux.
5. Some portions of science owned and managed by individuals.
6. Science and scientists becoming censured by some countries.
7. Scientists participating on broad-based international boards for a range of scientific oversight functions.
8. Efforts by international/multinational bodies to force ideological or religious restrictions on S&T activities. (Antiabortion, antinuclearism, anti-genetic engineering, anti-animal research, etc.)

8. How can science improve management of the risks induced by scientific research and its applications?

Actions/Developments/Answers	Import	Likeli	Confid
8B. Establishing an on-going forecasting and risk assessment system.	3.82	3.25	3.35
8A. Requiring investigators to forecast plausible unintended consequences of their research and to address the means for minimizing these developments as a routine part of their research.	3.65	3.00	3.30
8C. Requiring that science administrators be trained in science and risk decisionmaking.	3.56	3.18	3.19
8E. Generously funding a task force of some of the best natural and social scientists in the world to answer this question.	3.45	3.26	3.40
8D. Automating as much scientific inquiry as possible and increasing dependence on computational simulation to replace some experimentation.	3.07	3.46	3.27
Please rate the following new items suggested in Round 1: 1. Establish UN agreements to avoid taking catastrophic risks in civil society and economic decision-making, like building old design nuclear fusion plants.
2. Require in-depth, independent risk assessment if the probability of severe consequences is deemed by reviewers to be appreciable. Assessment must go through public review and a comment period.
3. Create objective standards of acceptable risk based on likelihood and seriousness of harm and apply these standards across the spectrum of science.