In this section each of the 15 issues is described in more detail than in the Executive Summary, and actions to address each are listed with a range of views. These views by the policy makers interviewed in Round 4 are distilled and added to each issue description. Their comments on actions are separated by "..." after each action item. Most of those interviewed agreed that the actions were practical and would be effective, but comments like: "Excellent..Absolutely agree," etc. were not included here. Instead, comments that included factors to consider, improvements, related alternatives, or arguments against the action were distilled for the reader. Actions with no comments mean that everyone agreed they are effective and practical to pursue. More detailed interview comments can be found at the Millennium Project's Internet site: http://nko.org/millennium under the 1996 Global Look-Out Study Round 4 interview comments.

1. World population is growing; food, water, education, housing, medical care must grow apace.
2. Fresh water is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world.
3.The gap in living standards between the rich and poor promises to become more extreme and divisive.
4. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune micro-organisms is growing.
5. Diminishing capacity to decide
6. Terrorism is increasingly destructive, proliferating, and difficult to prevent
7. Adverse interactions between the growth of population and economic growth with environmental quality and natural resources.
8. The Status of Women is Changing.
9. Increasing severity of religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts.
10.Information technology's promise and perils.
11.Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises
12. Economic growth brings both promising and threatening consequences.
13. Nuclear power plants around the world are aging.
14. The HIV epidemic will continue to spread.
15. Work, unemployment, leisure, and underemployment is changing.

1. World population is growing; food, water, education, housing, medical care must grow apace.

World population is nearly 5.9 billion and rate of growth is about 1.6 percent per year. About 95% of this growth is in developing countries. 90 million people will be added this year, 100 million were added last year, and it is projected that by the year 2030 there will be 10 billion people on the planet. Whether the needs of this growing population can be met without economic, political, or environmental upheavals is uncertain. Nutritional needs of the world will increase more than it has been estimated based on caloric needs, because trends in urbanization, communications and wealth will increase the demand for nutritionally improved food. Urban populations are growing much faster, especially in developing countries where urban population grew five fold between 1950 - 1990 to 1.5 billion and is projected by the U.N. to grow to 4.4 billion by 2025, at which point nearly two-thirds of the developing world will live in cities. Hence, most of this growth is occurring where people have the least means to support such growth.

In most countries, population growth rates have slowed as a result of decreasing infant mortality, increasing GDP/capita, increasing education of women, increasing use of birth control measures, particularly condoms, government encouraged family planning programs, and the rise of feminism. Infant mortality is high in poor countries and the causes of childhood death - infectious diseases and diarrhea primarily - are presently curable at low cost. The maturing elderly of the Third World will create a special problem in social services (68% of the projected 1.1 billion people over the age of 60 by the year 2020 are expected to be in developing nations).While most demographers and economists see population growth as causing a potential burden for the world (leading possibly to instability and violence and the growth of the number of people living in poverty), some see the added people as a resource, both intellectual and physical. Despite the enormous growth in population over the last two decades, economies have pretty well kept pace and in general, today's problems include surpluses as well as scarcities, and in many respects, environments have proven to be resilient after improved policy.

Additional interviewee comments

Falling infant mortality, increasing education of girls, and raising income are the drivers that lower fertility rates...Family planning is an issue for the married couple; if their social, economic, or psychological circumstances require prevention of pregnancy to extend the period between one birth to the next, this is acceptable from an Islamic point of view...In China, the two effective measures that lower birth rates are government policy and education. But implementing this as a policy can be a delicate issue in some of the countries, as it may contradict some religious views...There are some countries needing increased population for development, and others that suffer from over population. For example, population growth is not a problem in Russia. The problem for Russia is the fair and equitable distribution of resources and products...Policies that reduce infant mortality, education of girls and women, plus political enfranchising correlates well to falling birth rates.

Actions to address issue 1 with a range of views on these actions:

1.1

Governments and corporations should encourage research and development of new long term male and female contraceptives.

Contraceptive methods have to be compatible with local cultural and religious beliefs...educate women and men to accept this...make it easier to use...This has begun with NORPLANT, which is a new long term contraceptive for women...Governments should create and implement effective policy in parallel with this research...Policies that focus on artificial methods contradict some religious views, and in the commercial world, concern about liability is a huge impediment. In this case, liability laws would have to be reformed.. What is needed is a morning after pill...This action is too defeatist. Malthusians are wrong. Make economic conditions appropriate for investment and new technology; improving the standard of living is more effective.

1.2

Governments with some leadership also from NGOs and corporations should encourage development of high-yield, sustainable agriculture, particularly through biotechnology.

There is greater public acceptance of biotechnology for medicines than for foods. People are not looking carefully at the cost/effect of this. When they do, biotech for food will be more acceptable. Add corporate leadership...this action is a top priority of my government...Science and technology can feed the world...Agreed, but by itself, it cannot solve the food problem...Many regions lack arable land and should seek new sources of food, such as from the sea. Water takes 71% of the world's surface and the potential production from the sea is very high. Industrialized production of algae in arid areas is an effective measure to solve the food problem... this action will be more effective than 1.1; science and technology can feed the world...To decrease grain loss, we need proper packaging soon after harvest. We also need mari-culture. With hermetic sealed bags (that protect against rodents and rotting), there's some 20% loss that could be saved.

1.3

NGOs with some leadership from governments should increase the level of social marketing programs that teach family planning.

Social marketing should also include reproductive health, nutrition, child, and maternal survival...We cannot control family planning. It has to be voluntary. The economic situation of a family forces one to plan...Social marketing does not make a difference until infant mortality rates begin to fall...Reinforce South-South partnerships.....This is a very sensitive subject in many African countries. Limiting life is not acceptable...It is naive to think this will work. Larger social, cultural and economic forces make these changes.

1.4

Governments with some leadership from NGOs and UN agencies should establish coordinated global efforts and financial incentives directed toward increased contraceptive use.

The most effective way to do this is to provide low cost contraceptives through the private sector...Focus on social marketing to promote the husband's acceptance of the wife's use...Teaching has to begin at the grass roots - not top down. Reproductive health should be taught, primarily in the primary schools. The secondary schools should teach sexual behavior and fertility. This can't be done everywhere, because there is a concern that teaching reproductive health will diminish morality...We will need a coordinated effort among NGOs...How to make this change without changing the culture and religion?...Some countries are suspicious of each other's motives in this area. They are suspicious that other countries want to keep their population low, and hence, perceived as less powerful. Only UN organizations leading this action would be acceptable...Financial incentives just don't work. They are generally seen as coercive.

1.5

Governments and NGOs with some leadership from corporations should establish many micro-credit mechanisms to promote loans to women in Third World countries to establish new businesses.

Since increasing income is a leading indicator of falling fertility rates and credit is a proven way to increase income, this will be an effective policy...yes, but get more leadership from corporations...and add training by UNESCO and other international organizations, and NGOs...make sure honest management and monitoring is part of this action to make sure it gets to the poorer people.

1.6

Governments should invest in rural/urban marketing and distribution systems so that rural produce can get to urban markets.

Give incentives for establishment of industries in rural areas so they become both producers and consumers...It requires powerful intermediate networks.

1.7

Governments should anticipate population growth and expedite conservation programs for agriculture, food, water and resources, such as educational campaigns and heavy taxes on meat consumption.

Conservation is only part of the solution...The problem is not scarcity of food but distribution of resources....Add heavy taxes on meat consumption in richer countries...Some want universally equal taxation, some do not...Add soil conservation methods like "no tillage farming."

1.8

Governments and corporations should promote growth of non-traditional crops with export potential in developing countries.

Yes, but not at the expense of traditional crop growth...cost/benefit analysis is needed.

1.9

Governments should encourage programs that endorse voluntary sterilization.

No, completely unacceptable in most African Countries

Additional Actions1 for Issue 1

International organizations and NGOs should support governments to increase education of girls and other policies that reduce infant mortality...Increasing the qualifications of women through education should be

a priority to help solve the population problem...add improvement of people's quality of life. Generally, people with a low standard of living adversely affect the environment and consume and even destroy more natural resources. Population birth rate has an inverse relationship to the educational level in our region.

2.Fresh water is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world.

Lack of adequate waste management in most places in the world; excessive consumption and contamination of water aquifers; excessive farming on marginal lands; and trends in population, urbanization, tourism, standard of living, and technical ability to find and deliver more water are affecting the availability - and future expectations of availability - of fresh water. The countries facing scarcity include: eleven African countries, nine Middle Eastern countries, northern China (including Beijing and the agricultural lands surrounding it); India (including New Delhi and thousands of rural villages); Mexico (including Mexico City and irrigated farmlands in northern Mexico); and portions of the Western United States. Decreasing availability of water also limits economic activity. For example water is the limiting factor in coal production in Shanxi Province in China.

While methods exist to purify salt water, these methods are expensive. To further complicate the situation, agricultural uses far exceed other uses of water - as high as 70% of total usage in some regions. With increased demand for food, pressure to use water for agriculture can only increase. Agricultural land is being lost to brackish conditions due to long-term geological trends in some regions. The possibility, speed and consequences of global warming are uncertain, but at the very least, changes in rainfall patterns will undermine effectiveness of existing water control, storage and distribution facilities, and widen areas affected by scarcity. Some areas like Northeast China have benefited from the increased average temperatures by increased crop production. Nevertheless, as urbanization, population and economic growth continues, competition between urban and agricultural uses of water will grow and can become a source of political instability and conflict.

Additional comments on Issue 2:

Remote sensing satellites can play a significant role in locating and characterizing needed resources, including water resources...The Qura'n teaches to use the least amount of water that is necessary and take all possible measures to prevent waste...In many countries, including China, water is even more scarce than land.

Actions to address Issue 2 with a range of views on these actions

2.1

Governments should establish water conservation policies and incentives to improve the efficiency of water use.

This should include legislative, statutory, prices, incentives, and public awareness campaigns... Once subsidized water, especially for agriculture, is eliminated, the problem will disappear...this should be done gradually...Agriculture offers many opportunities for water conservation...Water for irrigation should be transported to the plot, not run through the entire field...Both governments and business should implement strict water recycling policies for industry...Governments should organize scientists or work cooperatively to improve measures to reduce water consumption and improve efficiency of use (such as drip and spray irrigation rather than channel irrigation), as well as create new water resources...UNDP, World Bank, UNICEF and other international organizations are implementing water and sanitation programs, and need more financial support... The Millennium Project might organize an international meeting on water consumption, establish an information network of experts and promote visions and programs by regions...UNU has just established the International Network on Water, Environment and Health (UNU/INWEH).

2.2

Corporations with support from government should begin immediate research and development programs to produce the means for producing inexpensive water from salt water.

This is necessary and unavoidable in some countries...Start with brackish water which has less salt than sea water. It can be used especially for irrigation. Unfortunately, the cost/benefit ratio of salt water conversion to drinking water is not attractive yet...Also consider the economics of water transportation...Add "artificial precipitation" or "rain making." The Meteorological departments in China have successfully performed this with significant social and economic benefits being obtained. More attention should be paid to meteorological engineering...Users associations and water distribution companies should also provide leadership...This is not useful for all countries.

2.3

The private sector with some support from governments should encourage further development of plant strains and agricultural practices that use salt or brackish water for irrigation, and/or are drought-hearty.

Brackish water represents 50% of some countries water resources...UNDP, UNEP, IFAD and others are currently negotiating responsibilities for implementing development plans arising from the Earth Summit (UNCED), especially the dry lands and desertification sections...UNESCO did a study that was encouraging and could be generalized...Also develop plants and crops which can live with less water or survive some drought conditions...Need incentives to get this action done.

2.4

Governments with some leadership from the private sector should develop water trading and marketing practices that allow users and managers to better allocate scarce supplies and fund conservation.

This will require reliable measurements and advanced monitoring techniques...Water pipelines would benefit both supplier and consumer regions...SADAC countries will be the first to work with UNDP and others on the legal transborder solutions to these issues...It is a very complex issue with many political, social and human implications. Like air and ozone, it poses complex problems of sovereignty, in addition to economic, legal, political, ethical, and even philosophical problems. Water is not the property of anybody.

2.5

Governments with some leadership from international organizations should secure treaties and cooperative agreements on water rights among nations that share water resources before shortages occur.

This should be implemented among countries; not as a world order....SADAC will be the region to participate in the new UNDP "Water Sharing" program to assess transborder water issues and potentials for agreements. If successful, this will be replicated to other areas with transborder water problems...Special attention has to be given to the use of fossil water that exists under two or more countries, when one country uses it to the degree that it denies neighboring countries' future use. For example, Israel's depletion of fossil water, at the expense of its Arab neighbors, is a particularly difficult case...Due to political realities, agreements also need to be made among different areas or regions within the same country.

2.6

UN organizations should establish a World Water Agency to develop and expedite new water technology and water extraction and collection projects.

No, the World Water Consortium based in France and the Global Water Partners in Stockholm already exist and sometimes they have problems coordinating initiatives, but they are able to conduct this mission. No need for another...Maybe after the current UN reform and re-organization planning is complete this action could be implemented...The ECOSOC of the UN can help, but its structure needs to be changed...This is the most important action and would make other actions more successful....the establishment of this agency should be put forward at the General Assembly of UN conferences related to this issue. It should include coordination with national legislative bases, R&D, expediting use of new technologies, and popularize this problem in the media.

Additional Actions to address Issue 2

Research on water saving irrigation technology, timing, and quotas...Invest into reforestation...Reduce flow of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides...Learn from the success of the Tennessee Valley Authority on water supply...Improve management of water basins...Agriculture should combine drip irrigation with the use of plastic film (closed environment agriculture) where possible to reduce evaporation and increase efficiency...Use sea ice in temperate zones such as was done successfully in the Netherlands...We need to go back to the recommendations on the water meeting in Dublin...reduce water pollution from industry and agriculture.

3.The gap in living standards between the rich and poor promises to become more extreme and divisive.

According to the World Bank, low income countries, average per capita income grew 3.4% from 1986 to 1994 compared to 1.9% for high income countries. One might conclude that both the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting richer, but that would be misleading. Excluding India and China from the low-income countries, the rest fell by 1.1%. Hence, while some poorer countries are getting richer per capita, incomes in most of the low income countries either dropped or did not grow. According to the UNDP's Human Development Report 1996: "Nearly 90 countries are worse off economically than they were ten years ago...the gap in per capita income between the industrial and developing worlds tripled from 1960 to 1993, from US $5,700 to $15,400...today the net worth of the world's 358 richest billionaires is equal to the combined income of the poorest 45% of the world's population - 2.3 billion people." Besides the moral implications, this issue could lead to increased instability and conflict. One respondent argued that "by 2025 more than 90 per cent of the worlds population with be in the current Third World" - which will be expanding rapidly - to swamp richer nations economically and politically.

Additional interviewee comments

This is the most important issue and it will become more dangerous...The gap between rich and poor is getting larger in richer countries too. For example, there are 50 million poor people in Europe...The main contradiction of the 20th century was between socialism and capitalism; in the 21st century it will be between the poor and rich during the emergence of the knowledge-based society...The survival instinct is basic. If this gap is not addressed, migration of the poor to the rich seems inevitable...If this continues, the richer countries could become unstable, move into economic depression, and hence poorer regions would not be able to earn income from exports causing a global collapse...The problem is that the rate of economic growth has not been enough...Five factors determine poverty: 1) participation - people must be involved in finding the solutions to their problems; 2) access to resources - land, capital, information; 3) degree of isolation - geographic, cultural, and telecommunications; 4) stability - environmentally, economically, and politically; and 5) management of risk - the death of a family member, an unwanted pregnancy, or natural disaster can throw a family into poverty...Reduction of poverty makes the world a safer place...There is a consensus already on how to reduce poverty in the World Bank report: Progress Report on Addressing Poverty...Richer countries either target assistance to increase growth in poorer regions or be prepared for migrations from the poor to the richer areas. (Note Scandinavian countries such as Norway and Denmark have the highest per capita foreign aid programs and no one complains that immigrants are not allowed in their country)...

The gap does not have to lead to instability. The gap between the very rich and very poor is wide in the US, but it is a stable country. Yet, gaps can serve as a reason or excuse for instability...It is not so much governments, UN organizations, corporations, NGOs, individuals and groups shaping the world but economic and financial forces...Governance is based on the nation-state, while economy is based on the corporation. Governance wants to set rules and has to address all the people, while business wants to avoid rules and get the lowest labor rates. A new social contract between government and corporate interests needs to be created....Contradictory donor rules restrict local freedom and flexibility of responding to local conditions...Since WWII the gap has gotten wider, but without foreign aid it might have been even worse. Although there have been improvements in the birth rate and infant mortality, the economic disparities are scandalous...This cannot be solved by means of assistance; poor countries have to want to learn, and change their lives...Definitions of rich and poor vary by country and situation. Measuring everybody with the same "fuzzy" standard can lead to wrong conclusions from faulty premises.

Actions to address Issue 3 with a range of views on these actions

3.1

NGOs with support from government should expand micro-credit mechanisms with banks, NGOs, and international financial institutions to accelerate development of small scale businesses.

This is beginning to work...the Microcredit summit (February 1997 in Washington, D.C.) will bring more attention and understanding of the importance of this issue to the future of the world, but the important part is the implementation of plans of actions resulting from the summit...promote exchange of best practices among micro credit managers...very practical as an effective micro policy, but poorer nations must establish the macro policy to accelerate economic growth as a top priority...add new venture capital systems (with auditing systems outside the country to avoid political manipulation) that can accept longer payback period and smaller returns than the conventional venture capital. Add incubators for small business...World bank and the regional banks should increase their activities in micro-credit and involve micro-business entrepreneurs in their programs...

Before new micro credit is provided on a wholesale basis to countries, conditions should be attached that improve democratic governance, training and education...Expand without international financial institutions if possible...Taiwan reached economic success through small business, but Korea transformed its economy through larger enterprises...The key is to include agricultural credit, so that the farmers can buy fertilizer. We are clearly going to need more food; just think what would happen if everybody in China simply increased their food intake by 100 calories...in addition to credit, technical assistance in agriculture, processing industries, and management training must go along with credit.

3.2

Governments and international organizations should create and implement a new kind of "Global Marshall Plan" as a partnership or collaboration between high-income countries and those with less industrial and entrepreneurial cultures.

The name "Global Marshall plan" sends shivers all over the world, but this concept is a new kind of plan because it is a partnership. The way it is written here is good and can work. Maybe call it a "global partnership for development." ...This should be the new role for reorganized Bretton Woods Organizations in cooperation with OECD and UN organizations...To be powerful it has to have more than humanitarian instincts. This effort should be seen by poorer countries to be in their interests, yielding increased stability and growing markets...Foreign aid has been discredited as an instrument of the Cold War; and as donor governments are cutting domestic spending, how can they increase foreign spending? Increase international trade and investment instead...Include new social contract between business and government...The previous Marshall Plan worked because Germany and Japan had an entrepreneurial and industrial culture that could manage the inflow of capital; poorer regions in Africa do not have this culture...The plan has to be flexible for different conditions in different countries, focus on the poor majority, and manage boundless appetite vs restricted resources. The plan should be started by the establishment of a "Brain Center," something like a Club of Rome. Then the plan should be adopted by the relevant implementing organizations in the UN, NGOs, etc. International resources should be allocated by the plan, and a mechanism to distribute funds and regulate implementation needs to be established to keep organized crime and monopolies from capturing these resources...UNDP should pay a key roll...

Since the rich have more to lose than the poor - if the gap leads to instability and migrations to richer areas - then, the rich should see this as insurance. Both the rich and the poor have to change their minds to make this work: the rich have to be serious about investing into the development of culture in poorer areas and the poor have to be willing to change. International organizations should be active in preparing the intellectual background for implementation of this global plan...Historical Marshall plan was only for a couple of countries and targeted to several problems; it was not conceived as a global plan. This action would be more successful if it targeted a limited number of countries.

3.3

Governments of lower income countries should include entrepreneurial skills and business math in their public education curriculum with some assistance from NGOs and international organizations.

Much training of entrepreneurs has been done, but we have not put the skills in the public curriculum yet, but we will think about doing that. This is a good idea and would be another step forward...Government should support this but not lead, government leadership comes first by agreeing to increase their economic growth. In Latin American and the Caribbean the growth should average 6%, but it is only averaging 3% which is insufficient progress to make a more stable future and reducing poverty in a sustainable manner. Economic growth by entrepreneurs creates the jobs...include technological change as part of this...math skills should also be taught to small business entrepreneurs and middle management...middle and high income countries need this too. Include interaction/communications between rich and poor, languages, and global ethics in the curriculum...Some countries are already doing this.

3.4

Governments and UN organizations accelerate programs that arrange for the provision of low cost computer communications equipment and training in schools, libraries, business, and hospitals in low-income areas.

UNDP's informatics programs in Africa teach how to use Internet. Provision of the low cost tools is the next step. We encourage the private sector to also help...make sure that it gets into schools and that more is spent for education.

3.5

Governments and development organizations should create toll-free numbers and computer networks for people from low-income countries who now live in high-income countries to volunteer some time to participate in the development of their original country via telecommunications.

This could be the next generation of our work...Good if very low cost equipment is available to the developing country...A very good idea to counter the brain drain....Make it more clear that this is not simply job matching to get people to come home...Argentina and Jamaica are now exploring this.

3.6

Telecommunications corporations in collaboration with NGOs should create low-cost, hand-held computers with direct satellite access for low-income regions to access educational software & telephony with elementary literacy as first priority.

It will spread rapidly and cut across systems like the hand calculator...Make sure all schools can get access, not just the poor ones...Create mentoring system to make it work...Actions 3.5 and 3.6 are mutually reinforcing...This action is necessary for a healthy global economy... make sure it is not just for the elite.

3.7

Governments with assistance from UN organizations should encourage Third World countries to establish policies that limit their "brain drain."

With global communications, advanced work like software development in India can be imported as a kind of "reverse brain drain" to create work that is worth doing...Action 3.5 can help...UNDP's governance programs give financial incentives to reverse the brain drain...This requires political changes in Africa...Handle with extreme caution...Corporations and NGOs can help...This is not a policy; it is an economic issue...Include capital flight...Brain drain is an old and weak concept - social mobility is important because it gives people the flexibility and freedom to come and go in the new global economy.

3.8*

Governments should give more official development aid to NGOs.

Without a long-range vision there is no point to more aid...This is not likely because foreign aid is being cut back...Vision would have to come from the NGOs...Maybe this action would be possible as part of the new Global Marshall Plan in Action 3.2.

3.9

Governments with advise from international organizations should permit the IMF to issue new SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) to reduce developing country debt.

The IMF has been working on this for the past three years. It will happen, but most new SDRs will be given to the new member countries emerging from centrally planned economies...UNDP has supported this view, but the new IMF-World Bank facility is not enough. This should be considered more seriously...Much better than simply declaring bankruptcy or forgiving debt...Need more details about this, but it seems it would make the IMF the new central bank, and who gives permission for this?...The IMF sits on too much money...it should be abolished.

3.10

Governments with some leadership from international organizations should increase efforts to promote free trade among developed and developing countries.

This should be the top priority instead of aid....The IMF, WTO, World Bank Group, and the OECD are closely working on policy designs to improve free trade within the G-7 framework... should be part of the new "Global Marshall plan" or "Global partnership for development"...make it "managed trade," real free trade does not happen. If "Managed trade", then everyone has the right to participate in the management of trade...There is not much in low income countries to attract capital, hence, free market economy, privatization, and free trade has little value to them. However, these policies are obviously very effective where there is some value upon which to build...we have to get used to the loss of preferences due the Uruguay Round.

3.11*

Governments and the private sector should create an international computerized barter exchange, enabling those countries with resources but little money to participate in trade.

This is already going on in a self-organized fashion...some NGOs have done this on a limited basis...if people want it, they will figure out how to arrange for it...a formal system would be fought by financial institutions.

3.12

International organizations with some leadership from governments should study the feasibility of a global tax structure that is unbiased between rich and poor countries.

The IMF and the World Bank Group are studying this now, but it may take decades to implement the recommendations...Study desirability first, then feasability...Include both agrarian and tax reforms For example the US-forced agrarian reforms on Japan and Korea accelerated growth, as did locally initiated agrarian reforms in Taiwan.

3.13

International organizations and governments should create a "Global Securities and Exchange Commission" to help tame currency markets.

Crucial to create, but very difficult to complete. The Bretton Woods institutions should take the leadership and responsibility for this. If not, then a new international organization will be needed for capital flows, monitoring, and policy. If the IMF is reorganized, then this should be a major focus for it...Consider tax on currency transactions...No, it's not going to happen.

3.14*

International organizations with some leadership by governments should create a new foreign exchange as a public utility, owned by central banks.

No, this is inflationary; will not fly...central banks are the world's primary inflation fighters ...There is a problem of backing currency...The UN should not be involved.

3.15

International organizations and governments should establish a means by which deeply indebted countries could declare bankruptcy.

The UN Trusteeship should be re-created, not back to colonialism, but suspend statehood of failed states until its financial situation improves...For 25-30 countries the aggregate amount of debt is not that much...Some work is being done on this now, discussions are increasing to accelerate this action...I prefer the term "workout" to bankruptcy...There should be an implicit, non-written agreement among the relevant counties not to pay the external debt...Forgiving debt will not work...This action could lead to dependency on the rich. Instead, create some burden-sharing between the lender and debt nations.

Additional actions to address Issue 3

Get the world to agree that economic growth is the common goal. There is a consensus about how to fight poverty (see Pursuit of Sustainable Poverty Reduction. IDA 1997 or Poverty Reduction and the World Bank. 1996 IBRD)...Get multilateral organizations to support governments in getting the world to understand this...Yet, there is no consensus among economists about how to create growth...We need to acknowledge this problem and go beyond discussing data...Discuss macro policies as well as micro policies...Increase competition and liberalize trade regulations...Since it is not possible for all to have the living standards of the rich, we have to create a new approach to this problem - a new view of evolution including new definitions of wealth..Increase local participation in development decisions as Shrouk is doing in Egypt...Give more attention to solving problems locally with local strategies, tactics, and resources, rather than just seeing international actions as the solution to problems...Focus of development strategy should be debt and trade...Poor countries have to sort out their own mess; the role of international agencies should be enablers. The techniques of fast growth are now well established, based on the Southeast Asian experience, which is now being followed in South America. As a result, the problem countries are declining, even in Africa. The remaining problems are "kleptocrats, rulers who plunder their countries treasuries - Nigeria does not really have the foreign debt it is supposed to, but the balancing entry is in the form of Swiss bank accounts and real estate in London...Encourage juridical thinking that is able to be transformed into pertinent legislative formulation within the international instrumentations already existing for the protection of human rights...

Although the perceived gap in living standards is exacerbated by improving global communications, these same telecommunications capabilities can plan a role in addressing this issue. For example, telemedicine and tele-education can significantly help reduce the actual gap in living standards...China's economic growing success came from: 1) preferential tax policies and movement of talented persons to more productive locations; 2) rationale to capital investment with some preferential policies for the poorer areas; 3) integration and communication of experiences; and 4) organize resources and techniques in to enterprise groups...The gap between rich and poor countries cannot be done by redistribution of resources, but by completing the organization of their economies and educational systems, which in now underway...Set government policies in Latin America and the Caribbean to achieve 6% annual economic growth; spend more on people (education, health, and women)...no, this would reduce incentive to improve national economic policy...Increased income, taxed from the market, should pay social expenses to protect fundamental social and economic rights, and enable the protection of human dignity...Study how to deal with tax evasion in developing countries...Develop new concepts of redistribution.

4. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune micro-organisms is growing.

Recent outbreaks of bubonic plague in India, ebola virus in Africa, and drug-resistant tuberculosis in the United States is causing the world to re-think its public health policies. Increasing mass migrations and international travel spread disease more rapidly than in the past; increasing urbanization and population density accelerate and intensify this problem. Furthermore, the widespread use of antibiotics has resulted in the evolution of micro-organisms that are resistant to antibiotic treatment.

"Infectious diseases spreading in US hospitals kill more people each year than all Americans killed in Vietnam...The heaviest concentration of pathogens is found in the developing world...The progress of pathogens to adapt to our arsenal of medicines promises to be the fight of our species...It is a trend that holds the capacity to bring life as we know it to a grinding halt...A handful of microbes can be stopped at the border but the vast majority can not U.S. Congressional testimony April 25, 1996 by Chuck Woolery, National Council for International Health. The threat of biological terrorism is now plausible.

Additional interviewee comments

This issue is a matter of national security...Travel is easy and diseases respect no borders... Doctors prescribe too many antibiotics and people don't take all of their prescriptions; both are responsible for the resistance to antibiotics that we're seeing. TB was under control for a long time. it's reemerging now because poor people are undernourished, live in poor shelters, and live in close proximity...TB is the single largest killer of AIDS patients...The US let its guard down; surveillance of public heath is not as good as it used to be when the US was monitoring for polio and smallpox....Hard to prepare new pathogens, as a great deal is apt to change...Life is a race between species and their predators, which will never stop. We will never cure all diseases. In any case, the pharmaceutical industry won't go away. But the doom and gloom merchants are wrong - and, even if the sort of disaster they describe does strike, there is nothing we could do about it - so there is no point in planning for it!

Actions to address Issue 4 with a range of views on these actions

4.1

WHO with some assistance from government agencies (like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - CDC) should strengthen and expand the global network of WHO collaborating laboratories to create an effective global surveillance system for emerging viruses and infections.

In addition to using the latest in satellites and information technology, WHO should also act as a cheerleader for and coordinator of other UN organizations and government efforts. It is too dangerous to repeat the mistakes of the past...We should ask what it took to get mobilized to wipe out smallpox...But how can we expect UN activity when the US doesn't pay its bill? The US and other civilized countries have to recognize the threat.

4.2

WHO with strong government support should increase funding and technical assistance for the Global Program on Vaccines to ensure maximum coverage is obtained with existing antigens and that research and development is intensified for other possible vaccines and immunization (such as for malaria).

The reason pharmaceutical companies are not putting more effort into antibiotics and vaccines is simply due to concern over liability. Liability is the big impediment. Protease inhibitors may represent a new strategy.

4.3

Governments with support by UN organizations should increase funding for safe water supply projects.

A more detailed discussion was shared above in Issue 2...Public health experts have to understand what's safe and not seek water supplies that are totally free of pollutants. it's a balance between what causes disease and cost. To eliminate all possible pollutants is very costly.

4.4

WHO with active participation by governments should create a rapid international medical deployment capacity to respond to outbreaks of infectious disease with the epidemic potential.

4.5

Governments with support from international organizations should increase the funding and capacity of such agencies as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), USAID, WHO and other international technical agencies in order to better collaborate with countries in strengthening national disease surveillance and control systems.

4.6

WHO with national leadership and management by governments should focus international attention and funding on those diseases that have been targeted by the World Health Assembly for eradication or elimination as public health problems (polio, measles, guinea worm and leprosy).

4.7

Corporations with some leadership by governments should initiate intensified research into second generation antibiotics. Issue of liability that are preventing corporate initiatives have to be addressed.

4.8

Governments, NGO and International Organizations should cooperate in training, credit, and technical assistance for small and micro-economic development to improve economic development in poorer countries and thus improve the standard of living.

Additional Actions for Issue 4

Promote telemedicine initiatives to bring the best medical knowledge to all areas of the world and significantly improve the responsiveness of the medical system to critical areas...Understand more about the relationship of disease and ecology (both external environment and internal ecology of genes); and disease and genetics (including the mechanism for rapid adaptation to new strengths and mutation)...Use a variety of media to establish religious and cultural values to reinforce good health practices to reduce the impact of this issue...Increase monitoring, and research on etiologies and new drugs.

5. Diminishing capacity to decide (as issues become more global and complex under conditions of increasing uncertainty and risk).

There is an increasing need for effective global decision making, responsibility (especially moral responsibility), action, and results. Today many believe it is possible to shape the future, rather than simply prepare for a future which is a linear extrapolation of the present or a product of chance or fate. Yet, globalization, complexity, number, and frequency of choices seem to grow beyond the ability to know and decide. Skills development in concept formulation and communications seem to be decreasing relative to the requirements of an increasingly complicated world.

The World's technological base has expanded, and the conventional tools for decision making have advanced. Yet, such "advancements" are poorly distributed, despite the size and speed of computers and decision making models. Facts are still elusive; the moral bases for decision making are rarely considered explicitly. Futures issues are apt to be tougher than ever: global warming and the ability to modify human genetic structure are two examples. Many people do not understand or trust science. Others believe that there is far more to learn in physics and other disciplines, and that the frontiers of knowledge are unbounded. There may be a plethora of information, but the question remains: how can humankind best incorporate such information into knowledge, intelligence, and wisdom? With advancing media and computer processing the border between truth and fiction is less clear; the certainty of reality is disappearing from our conception of the world.

Additional interviewee comments

This issue affects all others...The global agreement on CFCs (Montreal Accords) shows that it is possible to reach important decisions that have an impact even without complete data. The evolution of the EU has shown that supranational decision making is possible...The UN is another example, but with less effectiveness...We do not lack increasingly sophisticated computer systems; we lack the global ethical basis for decision making. The crucial part of education is wisdom over and beyond knowledge and information...We will evolve using the principle of "subsidiarity" - decision making at the level appropriate to the problem. Some decision making must be regional, like the EU; some international like the UN, and others to be decided nationally...Data, information, intelligence have to match the scope of the problem. The number of players in decisions are increasing, making decision making more complex. How many people should answer the question: Does China have to be poor to save the world environment? If not, who guarantees cleaner energy than that from current coal conversion? How many players in that decision? We need a reward and punishment system to get more players in the decision system. Increased participation in a decision process improves implementation of decisions...

Making decisions among sovereign states is a central problem. Diplomats tend to let things go until they become a crisis. We are increasingly faced with issues that cut across national boundaries. Coordination among nation-states can be a way to avoid making decisions.

The rain forest in Brazil is still shrinking, even though the greatest international coordination efforts in history have been initiated by UNCED in Brazil...All international organizations will have to rethink their purpose and structure. The Secretary-General of the UN has a clear mandate to implement change of the UN system of organizations...The classical models of development of equilibrium systems could not explain the evolution of society on the threshold of the new millennium. The world system is in transition to a new order of development. Today Russian scientists collaborate with other European centers on complexity and chaos...The role of decision-maker is becoming more complex, as the world becomes more complex and we have to make more trade-offs (between the various stakeholders). In addition, decision-making is becoming more transparent. The leaders are not becoming worse, but are facing greater challenges. We are becoming more of a self-organizing society, but perhaps this was always the case; there was just an illusion that leaders were running their hierarchies! What can a Prime Minister do?

It is not that there is a diminishing role for government, but that the power of everyone else is increasing. At the Rio summit Greenpeace was more powerful than most nations. The existence of interest groups is very healthy, it just makes steering the correct course very hard. In terms of leadership issues, one problem is the recent tendency to focus on specific issues, which can lead to apparent paralysis. As an example, the EU agriculture ministers only talk to each other, so the problem of the farm subsidy is never examined in the context of other issues (until the finance ministers meet in ECOFIN and are required to take an overall view). The problem is that where there is uncertainty and no agreement, there is no leadership...The ability of evil individuals to cause harm is still great, but it is getting less. In essence, we are now learning to make small fixes to small problems...

Increasing complexity of decisions is also due to the increasing complexity of the relationships among human beings...There is a contradiction between experts and knowledge...The most important problem is that policy makers are not well qualified and they base decisions on old dogma. Non-linear modeling will help...This description tends to focus on the problem, but knowledge and the ability to make decisions are increasing. For example, using advance sounding means in atmospheric studies, fast information collection, communication, data processing, and globalized and advanced instruments, the forecasting level of and ability to deal with weather disasters is improving. The world is learning quickly about problems and solutions, like the issue of sustainable development...How to convince the world that the issues of terrorism and the other issues in this study require global decisions?...This issue is fallacious as stated. Critical decisions have always been made on the basis of less than perfect knowledge and understanding. Nonetheless, the dramatic increase in scientific knowledge and the ready access to news and information of all types places an added responsibility on decision makers to be as thorough as possible in their deliberations...I'm not sure our capacity to decide was better in the past; it could be a myth...Although one problem is influenced by many factors, only a few are key factors.

Actions to address Issue 5 with a range of views on these actions:

5.1

Governments with support from NGOs should integrate "how to learn to learn" into education systems and professional training programs, establishing that it is a prerequisite to learn anything technically or socially complex.

Include teaching logic, local and global decision-making, and the issues of sovereignty...NGOs could create curriculum units that simulate complex situations to teach decision making skills and how to learn from consequences.....Include families and corporations in the educational environment...There is a mismatch between what is being taught to people and what they need to know. We should have a 20 year forecast and tailor curricula to those needs....Adult decision makers should be taught how to work with complexity, uncertainty, and non-linear processes.

5.2

Government should integrate futures, creative, and non-linear thinking into the educational systems.

It is important to learn early that non-linear systems are unstable at some points and stable at others; and hence, people need not be afraid to learn this way of thinking...Include different theories of why systems change...I'm not sure of the payoff for this action. It seems to me to be too academic.

5.3

Governments with some leadership by NGOs, individuals and groups should teach effective decision making, including the moral basis for decisions, the nature of risk, and dealing with uncertainty.

Incorporate this into all education levels...Advanced training in effective decision making should be directed to both government and private sector executives now. It is very important to teach decision makers to understand the complexity of problems, otherwise, their incompetence can lead to corruption...Globally, NGOs could conduct training through Internet and other information media...Comments on action 5.1 also apply here.

5.4

NGOs, individuals and groups with some support from government should expand research into nonlinear modeling of social, political and economic systems.

5.5

NGOs, individuals, and groups should introduce new forms of notation to represent evolving complex concepts, including uncertainty and risk, that can be used by the public.

5.6

Individuals and groups should celebrate those cultural stories and myths that make basic discovery exciting and promotes experimentation.

5.7

Governments should support NGOs, individuals, and groups to complete the human genome project and related brain research projects, apply the new knowledge to understanding of brain reasoning and decision processes and ultimately enhance the brain's ability for complex reasoning.

I am not confident about this; would prefer research on external problems to the internal workings of the brain. Progress on computers is more likely than progress on the brain...In addition to supporting the genome project, it is important to include the psychological differentiation of individuals, in the attempts to understand the diversity of the world.

Additional actions for Issue 5

Support research for innovations in expert software systems...Study alternatives to current definitions of national sovereignty. None of these actions attack the issue of sovereignty head-on, such as creating a new definition of sovereignty and national security. Is there a third alternative to a system of national sovereignty and global government? Can sovereignty be shared? Would changing sovereignty undermine the legal basis of the international system? Global authoritativeness - not world government - is part of the solution. For example, without the authority to set English as the language for all international airport control towers, or the establishment of postal and telecommunications agreements, we would have chaos...

We need to create a new theory of life based on evolutionary theory, complexity and chaos. This theory should be clear for everybody. Contemporary research concludes that a new system of values is a spontaneous adaptation of a society to a complexity of consequences of their actions. This new theory is important because the mentality of decision makers depends on the mentality of society. The inclusion of this new thought in the media is as important as putting it into curricula. Media should be responsible for their actions and should value life as well as broadcast the complexity of the problems we face...Create some measures for standardization where possible; and expert software systems...We should also look at the decrease in both genetic and cultural diversity as a result of domination of mass culture, and the possibility of non-linear changes. We need to create more open international decision making...99% of the world thinks only of their country, but we need to think globally to solve the problems that are global...

Consider complications of cooperation among terrorist groups and organized crime in countries like Colombia and Peru...The UNU should provide some leadership in increasing global thinking and the improvement of global decision making through its new Center on Leadership in Jordan...Add transparency of information in all considerations of this issue...Study the UNESCO report, Learning: The Treasure Within - a report from the International Commission on Education for the Twenty-first Century...Create a commonality of interests so that all participants benefit by sharing...don't stress the complexity of problems...The US ought to pay its UN dues to help the changes succeed...Reform democracies to curb influence of money and special interest and widen citizen participation. Perfect the tools of democracy.

6. Terrorism is increasingly destructive, proliferating, and difficult to prevent.

In addition to conventional explosives, chemical weapons, computer viruses, other weapons that may become available to terrorists include nuclear and biological weapons, making the threat increasingly ominous. The arsenals of the United States, Russia, and many other nations contain biological and chemical weapons that have massive killing potential. These materials need not be stolen since their manufacture requires easily obtainable raw materials and conventional technology. Potential relations of terrorist groups with globally organized crime extends the reach of terrorism.

Within the last three years: Chechen groups may have been involved in the theft of six kilograms of enriched uranium recovered in Istanbul. The Czech Government intercepted a shipment of 6.6 pounds of enriched uranium from a nuclear smuggling ring; the German Government found six tenths of a pound of plutonium in Munich on a Lufthansa plane from Moscow. German authorities reported 276 nuclear smuggling incidents in 1994.

Future biological weapons might be directed against a particular group, so that only certain people would be affected by the weapon. This would be a guided bio-weapon, that would use genetic information to target biological weapons against people with specific genetic characteristics. Large-scale Internet terrorism might lead to the call for "Cyber Cops" - a new police role.

Additional interviewee comments

Terrorism has been a permanent element in history, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, terrorism has become the issue of major concern for humankind....There is legitimate terrorism when all else fails. How do we distinguish justified from unjustified terrorism?...We need a mechanism to understand and acknowledge previous wrongs...Terrorism is a virus that is growing. No global system exists to stop it. Antiterrorism centers exist, but they are under funded

Actions to address Issue 6 with a range of views on these actions:

6.1

Governments with advice from international organizations should tighten laws, regulations, and inspections associated with security of nuclear, biological, and chemical stocks.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are the principal vehicles upon which to build...It will require sanctions against countries and groups that do not cooperate, and special networks of cooperation among those countries that are targets of terrorism. Different ideological and political interests would have to be overcome for cooperation among national intelligence agencies...The ultimate sanction, if a nation were to develop nuclear weapons illegally, would be to bomb their facilities...Despite the Non-Proliferation treaty's call for disarmament, many policy makers within nuclear powers consider these weapons as a guarantee for peace and stability.

This action should be based on an international strategy including: 1) data bases of people connected with these materials; 2) standards for management of these materials and common international training of personnel so that each knows what their counterparts will be doing in a critical situation; 3) rules of storage, control, and displacement of nuclear (and chemical, and biological) stocks; and 4) ratified of these three elements by member countries of the UN...We have to put teeth behind the UN. It is the only worldwide organization that can act here. The nations that owe money to the UN should pay their debt.

Why would terrorists want to use weapons of mass destruction? If terrorists want to gain support or sympathy for their issue, they wouldn't take a path that would result in killing millions of people. Imagine world reaction if the terrorists had managed to kill 5,000 people in the poison gas attack in Japan? In such a case, the law enforcement apparatus in Japan would have been joined by law enforcement everywhere. Therefore, rational terrorists would not be likely candidates to use weapons of mass destruction. But we have irrational terrorists. It has been possible for many years for small groups to build chemical and biological weapons. Fortunately, terrorist attacks using such weapons have not happened. However, the past is not necessarily a predictor of the future.

The first three actions to address this issue deals with consequences, not the fundamental causes of terrorism.

6.2

Governments in cooperation with international organizations should destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons.

Gorbachev agreed to this, but it was not done. The development of biological weapons was stopped, but this could start at any moment again....Create common international rules of storage and control of biological weapons and have them ratified by UN members. All countries should inform a special organization of the UN about any operations with these weapons. The UN should create mechanisms to influence countries that do not follow the rules. Biological weapons are more frightening than nuclear or chemical weapons. They are exceedingly easy to manufacture and there is no good reliable way to detect their production...Destroying stockpiles of biological weapons sounds good, but how do we detect the stockpiles? No proposals are satisfactory. Verification is a good idea. Inspectors can validate plants that have been discovered and closed, but good faith is not enough. Chemical plants are more obvious than biological plants. Monitoring raw material inputs won't work. There is no reliable way to contain this issue.

6.3

Governments should at least double the amount of funding devoted to protection against terrorist acts, such as airport security.

More effective would be old fashioned spying - infiltrate organizations at the highest level. Get the information to prevent this threat...In addition to airports, include subways, railway stations, and seaports...Airports are not terribly important. If we are concerned about big issues, smuggling of nuclear material or biological materials raises concern about destroying many more people than just a plane-load. The choice for delivery of a terrorist nuclear weapon would be a truck or van-or a cargo container. Biological weapons on the other hand, would be essentially undetectable...Funding is increasing for this now...Countries with more resources must cooperate with those with fewer resources.

6.4

Governments with some leadership by UN Security Council should expand coordination and cooperation among nations (especially among those that might not normally cooperate) regarding information, early warning, apprehension, and punishment of terrorists.

This would be the most effective action to address the issue...How should we react to countries that give asylum to terrorists, under the argument of respect for human rights? Asylum supports terrorist activities. The countries which tend to protect terrorists are not able to control terrorists activities against other countries...This policy implies that all terrorism is wrong. Was terrorism against Apartheid in South Africa wrong?

6.5

Governments should at least double the amount of funding devoted to detection, capture and punishment of terrorists; perhaps shifting funds from conventional military to anti-terrorism.

This should be done anyway...depends on the country...Try "rogue leaders" who harbor terrorists at international criminal court and televise proceedings.

6.6

Governments should develop protection strategies for biological attack.

Reactions to this are the same as those listed under the first action for this issue.

6.7

NGO's with support from governments should create social marketing or public education programs that promote respect and tolerance for ethnic and other forms of diversity.

Very important, but be alert against the so called "intolerance of the tolerant". Under the appearance of tolerance they permit first, and promote later, pornography, drug consumption, and other social illness. Freedom yes, but not licentiousness.

6.8

Governments should plan to build resilience and redundancies into socio-technical systems to avoid possible catastrophic disruptions (including electronic infrastructures from info-terrorism).

This should be a top priority and should be done

anyway.

6.9

NGOs and UN organizations should establish an open forum for discussion of issues that enflame terrorists.

This is the most important action that needs to be developed further. Historic injustices of the parties should be fully shared in public and discussed to reach acknowledgment and public apologies. Without this, the hate continues from one generation to the next...The UN Security Council in April 1996 debated a proposal by over 30 international NGOs for an online network of such conflict resolution groups worldwide: Anticipatory Risk-Mitigation Peace Building Contingents (ARM-PC). The UN General Assembly in May 1996 requested the Security Council to set up a similar system for "Humanitarian Rapid Response" force. Norway announced US$1 million funding support in October 1996.

Additional actions for Issue 6:

Eliminate all nuclear weapons. Increasing numbers of leaders think it is desirable and possible for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons (as recommended by the Canberra Commission) in the long term, if the will is there. If the US, UK, France and Russia would agree, then China would agree. Sufficient conventional force would remain to address rogue states...How to get the rightness of oppressed peoples position through the dominant power? How to categorize acts of terrorism? If the international community will not boycott or intervene in clear injustice, then violence seems to be the only remaining strategy...The criminal court needs international agreement and authority to act...consider media and education programs to demonstrate alternatives to violence to solve problems. The international community must come to an agreement about how to address "state terrorism." ...UN organizations should become increasingly involved in this issue by setting international standards of behavior, regulations, and the legislative base to manage terrorism...It would be helpful if the Millennium Project initiated a conference for the discussion of this problem to bring together the strategies, and then submit them to all countries and the UN to start a dialog.

7. Adverse interactions between the growth of population and economic growth with environmental quality and natural resources.

Current world population is about 5.9 billion and, according to UN projections may reach 10-12 billion by the middle of the next century. Although the population growth rate is slowing, the numbers of people being added to the world every year are higher than at any other time in history. As population concentrates, urban environmental problems intensify. Most countries are expected to increase economic growth; and hence, consumption of natural resources and energy. UNCED concluded that economic growth is necessary to reverse environmental damage and find resource substitution.

Many countries have demonstrated that energy consumption need not grow in direct proportion to economic growth, but huge growth is expected nonetheless, as the economies and populations of developing countries expand. Burning of indigenous coal by China and India, for example, could add appreciably to the world's pollution load. (Note, however, that the developed countries consume more raw materials and energy by far than the poorer countries are expected to do throughout the next century.) The amount of raw material per unit of industrial production is falling.

Additional interviewee comments:

With good policy, growth and improved environmental conditions can co-exist. For example, China's forest coverage has increased 1% between 1985 and 1995 due to a large scale afforestation campaign during this period...Too many government policy makers are unqualified and make disastrous decisions based on myths that contributed to ecologically dangerous areas. One myth was that the biosphere can only handle one billion people - but this depends on what the people do. Another was that natural resources limits evolution - but novel technologies have beaten environmental limits and new ones will be more efficient, placing less demand on natural resources and will prevent pollution. Linear industrial age thinking also leads to these mistakes.

We are making some progress in pollution control by such agreements as the Montreal Protocol and the Vienna Pact, but much work has to be done...The private sector in the poorer countries is too small to provide much leadership...The population rates are falling rapidly in most of the developing countries while they have declined to zero level in most of the developed regions...As peoples wealth rises, pollution increases, but as wealth increases further pollution per capita drops, because people can pay for solutions. Waste is increasing rapidly, but this problem is solvable ultimately...Carbon dioxide looks like the longest term problem...There is almost infinite substitutability. So the price mechanism will drive markets to the alternatives...This "Environmental Kuznets Curve" hypothesis is disputed...The problem now is renewable resources, fish (in the global commons), food etc...Although pollution would probably increase with rapid economic growth in Russia, the reverse is not true. Pollution continued even when our economy shrank due to lack of control of industry and old technology. Environment is not a priority at this time (Environmental share of the Russian federal budget this year is 0.5%. The US spends five times more on defense than environment; Russia spends 50 times more)...Per capita income will increase for most people in the world; with such increases, come greater consumption of natural resources and energy.

7.1

Governments should initiate higher tariffs or taxes on polluting products or technologies, with the revenues collected to be used to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safe technologies. By the same token, reduce import tariffs on environmentally sound technologies, goods, and equipment.

This would require changes in WTO rules to implement...Tariffs on trade should only be used on those environmental problems that are truly global. Nations should set taxes commensurate with their local situation...Tariffs should reflect environmental costs. Pricing should include environmental costs, but how to know these costs? We need a system of assessment of natural resources and pollution's effects on the environment, e.g. "Net energy" and ecological footprint analysis, as well as one for collection and distribution of money raised from this mechanism...In Russia there are no tariffs on imported "nature-oriented" technologies. To tax polluting products will require better educated government decision-makers, and a new ecological culture as-a-whole...Its a good idea, but impossible to implement properly. There is no unified and realistic way to identify how much pollution each product creates. It is hard to collect environmental pollution taxes now. Pollution taxes set up the irresponsible idea that, ÒI have the right to pollute because I paid for it ...Countries are in the process of considering this...as we learn more, the likelihood of this action's implementation increases

Use preferential policies rather than punitive approaches and build the capacity of the public to make better environmental decisions...Also consider incentives to introduce less polluting technologies and production processes...the income produced from these taxes and tariffs might not go to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safer technologies because of corruption and inability to identify the technologies. However, I agree that we should take the leadership of this issue and begin working on legislation about "ecological security"

7.2

Governments with some leadership from the private sector and in cooperation with scientific research should include environmental costs in the pricing of natural resources and products.

Economic and environmental policy should be created together as a sustainable economic policy. This is very good but very difficult to implement properly. How do you measure the costs?...Include the cost in destruction of resources...Corporations will fight it...It is partly realized in some parts of our country and we are taking the leadership to continue implementation. It is included in the Annual State Report (Russia) and in the president's Decree about the model of sustainable development. But most of the implementation of this action is only on paper...Governments don't control the prices; the global market and cartels control the prices of natural resources...Adjust the production systems instead...This action will kill our industry; it is an absurdity...there is no close relation between pollution and profit.

7.3

UN organizations with some leadership by governments should establish an international technology bank, funded by country pledges, that could be acquire the rights to innovative, "green" technologies so as to make them more easily available to environmentally less advantaged countries.

The bank should focus first on the most ecologically dangerous regions....Such a bank should have direct links to corporations...The first step has been taken with the Global Ecology Fund and with the Global Environmental Facility....The African Development Bank could open a section to address this issue... It will work when the problems are considered urgent enough... Most Chinese people instinctively think that the developed countries objective in these kinds of issues is to suppress the economic success of poorer countries. For this reason, UN organizations are the best mechanisms to implement this...such a bank makes sense, but not under the UN...governments should stay away from control to avoid corruption...World Bank, UNDP, etc. have taken some actions in this direction, although it is not very realistic to prevent pollution. Instead perfect relevant regulations and laws for family planning, natural resources utilization, waste recycling, and environmental protection.

7.4

Governments and International organizations should continue to support and promote all modes of family planning by subsidizing and distributing contraceptives, promoting programs to improve health care, diminish infant mortality, improve literacy, and involve women in the monetary economy.

The development of education and the improvement of the quality of life is the most effective policy, that leads to other solutions. This focus, rather than the speed of population reduction, is more essential...This action is a top priority of the Ghana Vision 2020 framework for policy, but conflict over giving condoms to children; we don't want to encourage sexual activity of youth, yet TV programming promotes sexual activity...There is no substitute for economic growth...Religious opposition and political rivalry prevents this from being more effective.

7.5

Governments with some assistance from international organizations should establish a system of national accounts that includes the economic impacts of the depletion of natural resources.

This will work, but the problems are not yet considered urgent enough...Although not organized like this excellent action suggests, some countries have begun policy changes in this direction like their banning export of some tree species...There are great difficulties in establishing neutral measures for this...Instead, consider the establishment of a sustainable development index that takes nature, society, and the economy into consideration.

7.6

Governments with some leadership from the private sector should encourage placement of labels on all consumer products and open information that indicates whether they have been produced in a sustainable manner.

Labeling is right, but difficult for developing countries trade. Although it seems very reasonable, lower income countries do not know how to judge this, and would need external assistance. The definition and measurements necessary to carry this out are not now possible...It won't work - too easy to exploit for protection of domestic products and discrimination against competing products...WTO rules need changing to implement.

7.7

Governments in cooperation with international organizations should encourage nations, perhaps through treaties, to abolish environmentally inefficient subsidies.

This will work once an international consensus is reached on the definitions of environmentally inefficient subsidies...It is essential to eliminate subsidies...Our government would like to cooperate on this...This action is difficult to implement, but that is the current direction...Methodologies for assessing environmental efficiency include "net energy" and "ecological footprint analysis."

7.8

Governments in cooperation with UN organizations should create tradeable pollution permits that fix global emission limits for countries or industrial sectors.

This is very reasonable, and will work once target emissions are established. The auto industry established Partners for a New Generation of Vehicles as a private industry research consortium. Could this action divert funds from consortia like this?...won't work until we know what criteria and standards are to be used for these permits and who determines what is polluting and what are the acceptable or tolerable limits...make sure this does not favor obsolete plants and technologies and retard innovation.

7.9*

Governments should emphasize programs that promote population dispersion and slow urbanization; this includes locating new production plants in the countryside.

Make small farming more profitable, make new laws to get more land to people, change tribal control of land, expand small scale manufacturing, electricity, roads, cellular or direct satellite telephony in the rural area. The Grameen Bank in Bangladesh is now selling cellular radios to micro-enterprises in rural areas to improve their business growth...Consider actions that make it more expensive to be congested.

Urbanization is great for ecology, reduces fertility rates, more efficient use of energy, and transportation. You have to ask why do people flee to the city...Better to concentrate factories favorable for recycling and treatment...Make combinations of factories that can use the waste of one as the resource of another...Urbanization and industrialization have a positive role in helping rural people to get rid of poverty. Instead, encourage environmentally sound urbanization through ecologically oriented management principals...Aggregation of population is easier to manage....re-ruralization is not likely to work because it will lead to considerable hardships, arbitrary interventions, high costs, and corruption.

Additional actions for Issue 7:

Add more incentives in this list of actions to attract people to create environmentally sustainable growth. Add positive collaboration among government, industry, and the public as a motivation toward improving behavior and the better use of technology... The Millennium Project could help by advancing a new vision of the complex interactions among population, economic growth, environment and resources. This helps break away from the dogmas and myths. A new ecological paradigm should be developed as well as forming a new model of the knowledge-based society...Improve environmental and ecological consciousness...It is essential to build trust among nations, so that policies are not seen as one taking advantage of one over the other. This will require very powerful educational efforts...From an ecological engineering view, it is better to deal with wastes and pollutants in a limited region with a phased approach in the management of wastes...Due to the cultural revolution, China did not participate in the international debate about growth in the 1970s. As a result it is just now learning the lessons it missed...The list only has economic control measure...Actions 1-3 are merely technical approaches that are not wrong, but are not the keys to the solution. Change consciousness is the key...We need environmental law to be transnational law, not international law, with so many different legal systems.

8. The Status of Women is Changing.

Gertrude Mongella, Secretary-General of the UN Fourth World Conference on Women, summarized the need to change the status of women as follows: "One of the biggest problems for women worldwide is the issue of equality. If everybody thinks women are not equal, then they will be treated unequally everywhere, in the community, in the nation, at the international level. This is the mother of all the problems ... if we are to succeed, we must get to a level where the only differences between a man and a woman are their capacities as people, not because one is a woman and one is a man."

The striving for equality crosses cultural, geographical, racial, class, religious, and ethnic boundaries. Yet, the very nature of equality has different meanings in different parts of the world, and in some parts, it is a matter of fierce debate. In the developing world, equality means reducing the number of women living in extreme poverty and violence, providing women with access to resources, land, and credit, increasing female literacy, and in some countries, giving women the right to participate in the political decision making process. As the status of women improves, birthrates decline and the welfare of nations improve. According to IFAD, Barbados is ranked the highest in satisfaction of basic needs indexes compared to other Latin American and Caribbean countries; Barbados also has the highest adult female literacy at 99%, and the highest percentage of female participation in the labor force.

In addition to the issues of equality for women in developing countries, economic and social barriers exist in industrialized countries as well. Although diminishing, wage disparity and limits on access to executive power pose particular problems, especially in corporations.

Worldwide, the overall status of women is improving, and there are significant breakthroughs. In the developing countries, the last 20 years has seen women advancing twice as fast as men in literacy and school enrollment, women's life expectancy increasing by nine years, and maternal mortality rate has nearly halved worldwide. Nevertheless, women have a long way to go as their private lives continue to be locked-into traditional patterns that often prevent them from taking advantage of opportunity. The implementation of the Platform for Action, passed by the UN Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing 1995, is making successful strides, but it has only just begun.

Additional interviewee comments:

Improving the status of women could be the most cost-effective strategy for improving most of the issues in this study...This issue cuts across all economic, political, scientific boundaries... Increasing the status of women has a positive impact in all areas of life...Ethnographers, sociologists, anthropologists, archaeologists have been predominantly men, thus gravitating to men as they explore other cultures, and hence, men's stories more than women's stories are told around the world...The most important indicator of this change is the degree of women's involvement in politics...Environment was the major issue at the women's summit in Beijing...There are more women on the supreme court in Ghana than in the US...it's a tough issue in some places because of tribal traditions - where for example, parents could sell their daughters into prostitution...Men want to control everything; they cannot imagine working under women's supervision. A womanize personal, intellectual, and professional growth can inhibit a successful family life...African intellectual women have a problem getting married to African men who think they can't be controlled...Demanding equality when asking for seven months maternal leave is difficult, but beyond equality, there is differentiation...Women are not good communicators, so they lose out in the senior executive context...A limitation on the improving status of women is that government can change the laws, but not their private lives...the status of women is changing from needing protection to builders of alternatives.

Actions to address Issue 8 with a range of views on these actions:

8.1

Governments with some leadership from UN organizations should increase emphasis on programs designed to reduce female illiteracy rate; especially among rural, migrant, refugee, internally displaced, and disabled women.

8.2

International organizations and governments should encourage programs that provide support for child care and other services to mothers.

Important, but literacy and education are primary...Also this issue is less important now in cultures with extended families, but will become a problem as more people become employed... Governments should include women's affairs in national planning. For example, extra time off for the mother could be given during the first year for child care as in Sweden. This society believes the investment in the future of its overall society is worth it. Or, fathers and mothers can negotiate to share time off and responsibilities.

8.3

Governments should enact and enforce legislation in all nations to guarantee the rights of women (including property rights), and adopt and implement laws against gender-based discrimination in employment.

This action may require enforcement by embargoes of offending nations...Couple education to change attitudes in addition to enforcing legislation...The US has no credibility when it chastises the Chinese on human rights; it has no authority to do so. Instead, we need to create a system of incentives...Have the Rio and Beijing UN conferences had any lasting effect? We need to know and measure...The UN needs enforcement power; could use some teeth in the human rights charter.

8.4

Governments should increase funding for health care and social services.

Sure, but not likely, given the global trends of government budget cutting.

8.5

Governments should ratify and enforce international treaties on trafficking and slavery with some leadership from corporations and NGOs.

In the meantime, educate the slaves, i.e., if a country has no slaves, then educate those people who it says are not slaves by letting them go to school. As possible, NGOs and UNESCO might intervene.

8.6

Governments and NGOs should establish direct links between and among national, regional and international bodies dealing with women's status and advancement.

Linkage also can be made by international organizations like UNDP, UNESCO, and UN Volunteers.

8.7

Governments and NGOs should enhance women's access to credit.

8.8

Governments with some leadership from NGOs should ensure women's involvement in decision-making relating to HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted disease (STD), facilitate the development of strategies to protect women from HIV and other STDs, and ensure the provision of affordable preventive services for STDs and HIV/AIDS.

This action should be led by Ministers of women's Affairs, in collaboration with NGOs...this is becoming a national debate in Ghana; churches are playing an important role here...STD's are now called STI's - sexually transmitted infections.

8.9

Governments should restructure and target the allocation of public expenditures to promote women's access to family planning resources.

Additional actions for Issue 8:

Support role models...Increase efforts to get women legal assistance...Increase coordination of NGO lobbying of governments to care more about this issue.

9. Increasing severity of religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts.

Religious, ethnic, and racial hostilities held in check by the Cold War have now emerged as a major theme of armed struggle. "Over the last ten years," according to UNU/WIDER, "the number of humanitarian crises has escalated from an average of 20-25 a year to about 65-70, while the number of people affected has risen more than proportionately."

Today, according to UNHCR, one of seventeen (17) people is either a refugee or a displaced person. Many groups feel a sense of persecution and isolation. Rapid rates of technological, political, and social change cause many to fear the future, giving rise to feelings of being "left behind," and the need to re-establish fundamental principals. Increases in regional and inter-regional migrations are provoking political and economic tensions. The recent successes of other separatist movements, perceived injustices, and long held animosities, all fuel the fire. Extremists can focus the media through violence. Stinger missiles, chemical and biological weapons, and computer viruses are cheap and easy for smaller groups to use, and can have significant affects on "superior" military forces, the media, and the general public.

Human rights standards are increasing in importance relative to national sovereignty. (The example of UN insuring passage of food in Somalia established that in some cases human rights outweigh national sovereignty). More international intervention into extreme religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts seems likely.

Additional interviewee comments:

The USSR did control ethnic conflict; yet today little fills the vacuum to control ethnic conflict now. Some nation-states may continue to break-up in Africa. Will new forms of governance emerge in Africa? Should the UN Trustee Council take over some of these disintegrating governments?...Unbalanced economic and political conditions use race and religion as tools of power; hence, this is related to issue 3: the growing gap between rich and poor...The fundamental problem is human greed and the refusal to share...Global education is essential as discussed in the UNESCO report by Delors. There is no mention of authoritarian regimes coercive practices, external domination and/or interference that increases the severity of these conflicts...

This issue as stated, is a pernicious idea. It is simply not true. It is a mistake to think of increasing "religious" conflicts; there are no conflicts that have strictly religious reasons. Instead, people use religious identity to reinforce the fighting capacity of their followers, and can deter the understanding of the roots of the conflict...Islam is not a problem or evil. The problems come from (colonial) interventions by the West...The problem in the Middle East largely arises where the US is driven by its Israeli lobby; Syria has actually cracked down on its fundamentalists...The most difficult potential problem is how China is brought into the world system. Will US triumphalism (after the fall of communism) rebound when it loses its position in the world. The US seems to swing between extremes: isolating problem states (in the Middle East) or engaging them (in China, fortunately)...

Actions to address Issue 9 with a range of views on these actions:

9.1

Governments should re-adjust school curricula to emphasize compassionate behavior and socially acceptable values, such as tolerance for diversity.

Although a long-term solution, without the readjustment of school curriculum, there will be no long-term progress...This can lay the foundation for a more peaceful world, but how to get governments and their teachers to change curriculum when they might be a source of intolerance? ...Amnesty International has been involved in such education through a network of human rights educators that adapt curriculum to local systems where governments allow it. Venezuela has committed 2000 teachers from K-12th Grade to teach a curriculum of tolerance and human rights...If children were taught that Arabs invented Algebra, then non-Arabic children will be more interested in Arabic culture; if taught that Kodiak islanders make good fishing hooks, then there would be more interest in learning about Kodiak culture; etc. All cultures have value and have contributed to civilization - we should learn what they are...UNU and UNESCO can provide generalized knowledge for Ministries of Education to use, but it would be best if domestic NGOs gave the more specific content to curriculum.

9.2

UN and other international organizations and NGOs should identify the most likely next conflicts and facilitate mediation between the groups involved.

9.3

UN organizations with some leadership from NGOs and governments should establish early warning system to identify cultural, ethnic, and religious issues and trends that might lead to conflict.

Actions 9.2 and 9.3 are quite similar; hence, comments are grouped together here:

The UN secretariat must do this better in cooperation with NGOs. There is a consensus that the international community has the right to intervene when conditions warrant because the consequences of not intervening, can have effects beyond national boarders. Early intervention, by threatening or even bombing, would have deterred most of the violence in the former Yugoslavia...Focus on this action as the key to address this issue...The UN is working on this now, but it is difficult to connect early warning to appropriate action. Although there is a better sharing of intelligence now, governments will not let their intelligence systems be used by the UN in the same way that the UN Security Council can use governments' military force...The new system should have the ability to send in human rights observers in greater numbers as prevention to massacres; this might have prevented the carnage in Rwanda that was initiated by a small number of voices. Instead, UN human rights observers were pulled out. Liberia could have been much worse had not ECOWAS and observers come in...

Previous attempts to get early intervention had appealed to moral values, instead, there should be a focus on political and economic cost/benefit analysis (millions of dollars to cure problem vs funds for early intervention to prevent problem). The consensus for this is growing, that we need to establish a criteria on when to intervene against a sovereign nation-state...Early interventions should follow this sequence: first, international media attention with NGOs assistance, if there is no response, then economic pressure from governments, and if still no response, then military action through regional or UN or groups of nations...Imagine CNN or a UN media team with fast moving cars with television cameras for live satellite link as a new kind of information age rapid deployment force to more rapidly focus global conscience...add studies to understand the evolution of the potential conflict - not to open old wounds - but to understand where it came from, and what could work.

9.4

Governments in cooperation with UN organizations should establish political priority for ensuring human rights and dignity.

Complete treaties with standards and reporting, including those that protect the rights of women and children...Media attention can help put the spot light on infractions early. The UN and others can give constitutional and legal reform advice to comply with new standards of human rights...Countries may have their own definitions of human rights which were used to control other countries...If some intervention had occurred when the Serb controlled government began abusing human rights, first of Albanians, and then of the Croates and Moslems, events might have evolved differently in the former Yugoslavia.

9.5

Governments and international organizations should increase funding for social marketing or public education for tolerance and respect for diversity, and equal rights.

How to educate governing elites who may be part of the problem?

9.6

Governments with coaching from UN organizations should seek means for including the views of dissident groups into the legitimate political processes of their countries.

Media like CNN can help get views heard by leaders, and can help enforce a boycott. Alternative Radio stations, Internet, and faxes have proved very useful to help information flow...All our recent conflicts have been the result of dissident groups not having their views heard. The UN human rights process needs shaping up. The international community is just not ready to punish violators of human rights.

9.7

Enable the UN to have a standing military force (peace-keeping/building) to intervene in a more timely fashion to prevent, quiet, or end ethnic, religious, and racial wars.

Governments will not accept a standing UN military even if deployed only through the Security Council. Instead a rapid response capacity could be created if governments identify troops to be trained together, have compatible equipment and communications, and standard supply depots. This could reduce response time from two to four months down to a week...This is acceptable since it would act as a deterrent, but how do you make sure the UN Army doesn't also begin the abuse of human rights?...Rapid military force should only be used for preventing war or its escalation, not for human rights abuses - these should be addressed by softer means such as denial of privileges, rejection of loans, and other development pressures of one kind of another.

9.8

Individuals, groups, governments, and UN organizations should conduct more research projects designed to uncover the causes of collective violence.

NGOs like the Carnegie Institute have made contributions in this direction.

9.9

Governments should increase economic development (especially micro-enterprise credit and training).

Although the poorest of the poor do not create the conflicts, they are used as pawns. However, if they are beginning to make economic progress, then they are less likely to be used for conflict...Just when the design and monitoring of development assistance is improving, there is little money available. Nevertheless, money should be increased to both multilateral and bilateral programs.

9.10

Governments, NGOs, and international organizations should increase funding for training and technical assistance in governance and mediation, especially in trouble spots.

Yes, this is something that NGOs like Amnesty International can and should implement. It is important to help search for common ground...If governments are too poor then they can certainly use the help, but most know what to do; they just donut want to do it.

9.11

The UN should establish international criminal courts and tribunals with enforcement powers to punish those convicted of atrocious collective and communal violence.

This should be one of the top three actions. If you kill one person you go to jail and die; but you can instigate the killing of 10,000 with impunity. There has to be both national and international efforts to end impunity for such violence...In a year or two there will be a diplomatic conference to organize a statute for such a court. Currently individuals and private organizations of lawyers are leading this...It is important to get control of the money so that political crime does not pay. Prevent the ability of political leaders to store their money in Swiss bank accounts and villas on the Riviera...Proceedings should be televised. Design smarter sanctions that target elite criminals not innocent populations and whole countries.

10.Information technology's promise and perils.

Internet has grown faster than any phenomena in history. Interactive cyberspace has become an important new and unprecedented medium for civilization. All forms of information technology will spread throughout even the poorest regions of the world as prices for computers, software, and telecommunications continue to fall and their capacity and ease of use continues to improve. Currently, 90% of the information technology market is in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, but this is changing. By the end of 1994, electronic mail connected all countries together through virtual gateways. AT&T's Africa One Project and the Global Information Infrastructure vision of U.S. Vice President Al Gore are expected to accelerate Internet growth in developing countries. By the year 2000, the Internet Society expects 187 million hosts connected world-wide, 2 million networks outside the U.S., 2.5 billion users, and more traffic than voice telephone.

Internet represents one of the most powerful agents of change in the world affecting everything from science and religion to politics and medicine. It is becoming the first location for the discussion of new ideas, publishing, advertising, and commerce. For developing countries, Internet possesses the potential means to accelerate economic development, provide greater and faster access to the world's knowledge and become the medium for participating in the world's economy.

Many people find the Internet to be confusing and unorganized while others, exciting and self-organizing. Within the next decade, the Internet will be simpler, more accessible and faster. Automation has begun displacing routine human behavior, giving rise to the possibility of economic growth with less employment. If new kinds of enterprises and employment are not created to address computer and automation-induced unemployment, the unemployed and underemployed could well create an anti-technology sentiment and political crises.

At the same time, one should expect sabotage through the Internet. Credit and bank fraud, computer viruses, other forms of criminal manipulation and even information warfare by individuals, groups, corporations and nations are possible. Additionally, pornography and other influences deemed culturally unacceptable are creating hostility toward the free growth of Internet. Privacy and property rights are also issues of concern. Authenticity of information will be difficult to establish. Nonetheless, information technology is creating a planetary "nervous system" necessary for improving the prospects for humanity.

Additional interviewee comments:

This issue is the most important to address, since it cuts across all others. It can contribute to the solution of all the global issues in this report...There is no question that information technology is transforming the human rights struggle around the world...Equal access between the rich and poor to the same quality information is increasingly possible...Information technology is the new thrust of World Bank policy to address the development gap...A new culture is being created for a positive business environment globally...The global availability of CNN may also educate, in terms of changing attitudes and cultures...Information technology is eliminating some of the blindness about global understanding of policy...Business cannot survive without it today, because it gives a better chance to select partners, resources, laws, markets, everything...It reduces the need for middleman retailers; the buyer and supplier can meet directly in cyberspace, thus making geography and social status irrelevant...It manages food shipments to reduce spoilage in transit...Internet is the most cost/effective way to link people and data around the world, spreading modern sciences and techniques, cultures, and various arts more than any or mechanism in history...

Cultures unable or unwilling to meet in person share information via Internet homepages, making transborder cooperation easier...It distributes the wealth of information more democratically than previous economic systems...Information technology is associated with the future, education and freedom...The Russian government that proposed the reforms, did not have the mechanisms or prioritized policies to realize the reforms. Businesses have had to rely on information technology to participate in the global economy and have had to train personnel abroad to use this technology...Its potential for damage, as we get more dependent on it, could be more than conventional weapons, especially when one contemplates the possibilities of information warfare...Information technology can communicate unhealthy influences (especially especially to children), new ways to cheat, and viruses will be spread...In the exploration of the physical world, corporations such as the Dutch East India Company took on responsibility for the rules of development; so too the private sector will take the leadership for the rules of development of electronic and photopic world...Privatization is a global trend that will influence the future development of cyberspace...How will governments collect taxes on global electronic commerce?...Once we understand that this is truly a revolution - and not merely a more efficient way to do what we did in the past - then we will make great progress with this technology.

Actions to address Issue 10 with a range of views on these actions:

10.1

Governments should provide more free Internet access and training to the public at public libraries and schools.

Corporations will lead this development, but governments have to open the business environment to competition to accelerate the provision of access. The World Trade Organization (WTO) can pressure governments to open the competitive environment. OECD found that countries with open competition for telecommunications have six times more telecommunications access per capita...Use more access points like Hong Kong does with free local telephone calls from restaurants, etc...I would prefer easy access to free access; people may not value if given freely, but this action is rated too highly. Who finances it? Macro policies would be more effective then this micro policy...Less than 8% of the world read and write English and only half the world has telephones...How to get the right information, in the right format, at the right time to people, rather than focusing solely on the "information highway," is the key. Simple instructional materials using slide shows, booklets, films, audio cassettes, video with local language voice overs, and other more basic or low technology alternatives to the Internet are very important and is a more effective way to address the knowledge gap. don't waste governments' funds of low income countries on extending the information highway; corporations should do it...Creating and improving the telecommunications infrastructure is more important than free access at local libraries and schools. .

10.2

Governments in cooperation with corporations should create incentives for foreign investors to accelerate the introduction of computer communications and related equipment to developing countries and training to facilitate the use of global networks.

The primary incentive for foreign investment is government acceptance of open competition for private sector information technology companies to sell technology and services... "Net Days initiated by John Gage of Sun Microelectronics and spreading to other countries, gives a day to a school to wire it to computers and Internet access; hence, the private sector is already willing if governments open the markets, then corporations don't need an incentive to come in.

10.3

Corporations in cooperation with governments should promote policies that anticipate and expand network capabilities that tend to help avoid communications overload.

If more than one company can sell data lines and switches in a country, then the capacity problem will be solved by the private sector...This is a purely commercial decision...Direct satellite access, cable television, new optical fiber systems will address this...would prefer that governments do this.

10.4

International Organizations in cooperation with individuals, groups, and NGOs should create an on-going global forum to freely explore the potentials of the emerging world cyberspace.

This forum could also take leadership to make recommendations about other actions to address this issue...This forum would be an interesting UN activity in terms of making thinking about the future more respectable; but this would really only be a marketing device - and must be fully interactive (via Internet)...There are many already doing this such as UNESCO, ITU, UNIDO, WTO, OECD, the International Chamber of Commerce, but others can contribute...Internet is already an on-going forum...If one is to lead, then it should be an NGO with all others involved as a "global teach-in" ...Yes, but add private sector.

10.5

Governments with assistance from NGOs and corporations should recognize potential impacts and advantages of information technologies on employment and institute large-scale and entrepreneurial training for emergent or growing economic activities.

The amount and quality of employment is a function of knowledge and attitude per capita, not increasing information technology per capita...It is really important for everyone (governments, organizations and individuals) to recognize that the information society is very different from industrial society. The assumptions made by each about life are different. If countries donut understand the new assumptions, they will lose out. For instance, local government will become much more important; small and micro enterprises will be different, perhaps just a consortium of friends, but operating globally. Size is not important - consultancies have a limit of 35 people before they split up into smaller units again...Although some corporations have laid off workers, overall employment in this sector is increasing.

10.6

Governments and corporations should develop systems to protect children and some other people's right not to be exposed to unwanted information.

Many software companies such as Netscape have already offered software to control this...This software is desirable, practical, and available...Even if the pornography issue is solved, some cultures will resist open access to the Internet to prevent their people's being influenced by other cultures and English dominance...This issue should be addressed with civic education and family conversations. Families could surf the net together - "family surfing"...Cultures have to respect each others' preferences.

10.7

Corporations should develop computers and software adapted for Third World and non-western cultures.

This is UNU/IIST's mission...Governments could be advised by NGOs on how to implement this action...what adaptation is really needed?...Local adaptation and software authoring is being done and will continue rapidly ...Third World governments should take some leadership to create incentives for their own local software entrepreneurs to create their own culturally and linguistically oriented software...No, Don't make new local software, because it would cripple developments, non-western cultures adapt to Information Technology better than others can adapt it to special circumstances.

10.8

Governments should change medical and education laws to accommodate on-line consultation as legitimate, and covered by insurance.

This is only a US problem. The many forms of tele-medicine and tele-health is the way of the future...NGOs should be in charge of these changes...Don't limit this just to "consult," allow for access to data to help one diagnose oneself, find treatments, and keep one's own health records.

10.9

Governments should promote tele-national citizenship (Third World people who work in the First World but volunteer time to help develop their countries via tele-commuting.)

Private sector and individuals should also lead and support this...The reverse is already happening, thousands of Indian citizens provide software for clients around the world.

10.10

Governments should strengthen intellectual property rights to encourage development of information technology products that can be marketed in developing countries.

The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) has addressed intellectual property rights in print, video, and film, but currently they are examining electronic copy rights...This requires new concepts about information - a day old newspaper is not worth much, but how much would you pay for a month old medical journal that had information you needed? There are different views of information ownership and rights in different cultures...What is fair use? What can you copy for educational use? The effort to copy thousands of electronic books is different than the effort to copy thousands of printed books; there is virtually no limit to copying on Internet, but there are physical limits in other media...We need to develop suitable copywrite enforcement mechanisms; maybe send in electronic agents...Some cultures do not recognize this as a problem - it is a form of cultural blindness...Call for equal leadership with the private sector on this issue.

10.11

Governments with some leadership from international organizations should encourage a hands-off posture toward the regulation of the content and use of international networks such as the Internet.

This and action 10.10 will require US leadership to address...People want the security of a market place with reasonable rules and as much self-governance as possible...Adopt a global rather than an international posture...Everything from police to airports are being privatized, so too should be the key elements of Internet...would prefer 10.11 to 10.10...The question is, whose hands? It should be self-regulation not government. It is a new form of community. It can be controlled, you can bomb offender with viruses - using force in the way that governments are traditionally empowered to do. But it is no longer subject to country law (but will the US accept that?).

Additional actions for Issue 10:

International organizations like the WTO, ITU, EU should help coach governments as to their roll in promoting global harmonization of communications rules and standards...Understand how to prevent "Information warfare" with closed hierarchical networks beyond popular control.

11.Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises

With vast sums of money from illegal drugs and other sources, organized crime is buying the technical know-how to generate even more profits in new ventures ranging from information fraud to human organ and arms traffic. Examples include: 1991 bank fraud of US$2.2 billion; telephone fraud $4 billion; credit card fraud $1.5 billion. Financial institutions in the United States alone transfer over one trillion dollars via computer networks daily, this and other international financial flows provide tempting targets.

Power vacuums across the world created by the fall of Soviet authority and weakened national governments in other regions are being filled in part by new forms of criminal power. Indecisive or untimely responses are likely to encourage an expansion of these criminal trends. Although organized crime is very small compared to the overall number of crimes today, its potential for growth due to it accumulation of large amounts of money and potential relations with terrorists increases the capacity of violent and extremely dangerous activities. Unfortunately, there is little international coordination to address organized crime except in narcotics.

A generation of children has been exposed to violence and criminal behavior on TV and in other media at an early age; this may increase the potential for later criminal behavior and create a siege mentality among law-abiding citizens. Some people fed up with crime demand restrictions on civil liberties, greater use of the death penalty, and increased government surveillance in an attempt to rid society of criminals and weapons.

Actions to address Issue 11 with a range of views on these actions

11.1

Governments in cooperation with international organizations should complete an international set of agreements for tracking and arresting international criminals.

The agreements should include data exchange, personnel consultancy, and provisions for sanctions against countries that do no implement the agreements.

11.2

NGOs with some leadership by UN organizations and governments should establish global dialogues on human values and morals to continue over several decades via television, Internet, shortwave radio, interactive games, etc., to identify and acknowledge global ethics, encompassing responsible behavior and caring for others.

11.3

UN organizations and governments should establish international early warning systems focusing on potential emerging crime threats.

This has begun to some degree already, but the governments do not use these forecasts to make decisions. If these early warning systems were implemented as a global or international system, then governments might be more likely to act on the information. International data standards should be established, such that forecasting could be done. A UN organization should be responsible for the collection, organization, and management of the information. If this is not possible initially, then regional centers should be established for Europe, Africa, etc. with country agreements with the regional centers.

11.4

Governments should plan to build resilience and redundancies into socio-technical systems to avoid possible catastrophic disruptions.

This is a wise policy, regardless of the increasing power of organized crime and should be done anyway. There is much discussion about this, but governments are moving too slowly.

11.5

Governments with some leadership by UN organizations should address new crime areas such as illegal waste disposal, theft of nuclear materials, human organ and arms traffic, and sabotage of information networks.

Governments should make their legislative base in concert with other countries and evolving international and agreements.

11.6

Software companies in cooperation with and support from governments should accelerate efforts to develop software to detect international computer-based fraud and train in its use.

11.7

UN organizations with some leadership by governments and legal organizations should develop international criminal law and establish world criminal court with enforcement powers.

Local criminals should be judged by local courts; international criminals must be judged by international courts...All could be on television before the "court" of world opinion.

11.8

G-7 countries should establish a budget and training programs for foreign counterparts with special attention to newly emerging democracies and Eastern European countries and increase the number of case-specific international training seminars in order to provide more practical training for officers.

These training programs should contain efficient

and practical applications, having in mind the sophistication of criminal organized groups acting globally. The creation or more international bureaucracy should be avoided.

12. Economic growth brings both promising and threatening consequences.

The driving force generated by the interdependence between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years. Economic growth is responsible for changing the standard of living for most people in the world. It is shaping the physical and social environment, creating new global business relationships, changing the nature of work, employment, and expectations about the role and responsibilities of governments. The consequences of economic growth is subject to pessimistic and optimistic interpretations. There is pessimism over the nature and number of jobs, widening income gaps, trade disputes, energy consumption, political disorder, environmental degradation, migrations from lesser developed countries, technological displacement, conflict between societal and economic aims, and uneven distribution of wealth among nations. And there is equally intense optimism over economic growth's production of employment, food, shelter, clothing, health care, knowledge, tax revenues for government's social programs, as well as the financial resources and new technologies for improved environmental management and global information access. During the same period of economic growth, infant mortality has fallen, life expectancy has risen, and living standards for three to four billion people have improved.

The globalization and liberalization of national economies promises to accelerate the forces of global economic growth. The WTO's International Trade Trends and Statistics Report states that in 1995, "the volume of world merchandise exports expanded at its fastest pace in nearly two decades." The increase in trade was nearly triple the growth in output in 1994, and nearly triple the growth in 1993. Will the intensity and scale of these forces contradict the goals of sustainability? The United Nations Conferences on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro addressed this issue, and concluded that although the link between economic growth and environmental degradation is unquestionable, sustainable forms of economic growth are, nevertheless, necessary to resolving environmental problems in the future; the sheer magnitude of these problems are quite costly. Considering such consequences of growth are central to the building of economic growth strategies for a more sustainable human future...and was the subject of the UN's Rio + 5 conference in 1997.

Additional interviewee comments:

Without economic growth none of the 15 global issues stated in this report can be addressed well...No government can meet its sustainable development goals unless it attracts foreign capital...There is still a bias against growth. Without growth, billions of people will be condemned to poverty...The debate between the market approach vs central economic planning is over; now the question is how best to make the market work for sustainable development in an increasingly global economy...Increasing global consumption is not sustainable; hence, the conflict of economic growth and environmental quality will get worse unless human behavior changes...Investments into education, especially of girls, is essential to continue growth into the more complex future of the 21st century...We are now experiencing the breakdown of old definitions of wealth and moral standards and the very early emergence of new world views or paradigms. During this period we have to manage the negative effects on the family, ethics, morality, personal independence, and decadence...

There is good and bad in all things - growth, information technology, etc. When the bad outweighs the good, then international organizations should intervene; Internet helps get info around to help address these imbalances...Poverty is the main cause of environmental degradation....Negative consequences of growth have happened throughout history and new forms of self-organization emerged to address them...Economic growth is necessary to address all other issues in this report, but it must be sustainable economic growth created by: 1) sound macro-economic policies; 2) financial policies that includes environmental costs as re-occurring costs; 3) environmental policies that manage natural resources and pollution - sound environmental policy is sound economic policy, as was concluded at UNCED; and 4) transparent social policies that foster equal opportunity, choices to improve conditions of oneself and family, is sensitive to cultural differences, and hence increases social stability.

Actions to address Issue 12 with a range of views on these actions:

12.1

NGOs and governments should increase national and international efforts at building communities that provide models of sustainable economic development

China has 60 such experimental models in operation today...Include governance in these models as a key element...The environmentalist must meet the economist half-way to create these...Get all the stake holders involved to build consensus. Invite broad participation in their design - especially by those who will live there...UNCED and governments are now preparing sustainable economic development programs for the first time.

12.2

Government in partnership with environmental scientists and the private sector should create taxes or fees for the most environmentally damaging activities.

This will work, our government has begun, but financial support is too modest...phase them in over time; it is dangerous to do it all at once without giving producers time to respond.....consider other forms of regulation in this package...only economic measures are listed. We should add moral and education actions. Can we taxing our activities change our morality and understanding of the world?... Preceded by getting regulatory environment correct.

12.3

Government should achieve a better balance of energy sources by implementing a full-cost accounting for external and environmental effects and impacts.

It is so obvious that this should be done, but no one can do it until the scientists come to agreement about these issues. So, first organize the scientific research to answer these issues, then talk about how to implement incrementally...This will produce useful debate about who should pay the full costs.

12.4

The private sector with government support should greatly increase R&D to quadruple energy productivity within 30-50 years, i.e., the output in energy services per primary energy input.

This will require increased investment and domestic savings to promote growth.

12.5

NGOs with some leadership and support from government should encourage decreases in consumption by industrialized countries.

It is best to use incentives, eliminate subsidies, charge the real cost of resources...Build a consensus by consciousness raising activities, as was done with recycling using a bottom up approach with individuals, groups, and NGOs.

12.6*

NGOs should develop economically sophisticated theory and democratic institutions that prevent economic excesses, and protect People's rights to make their own cultural and political choices with minimum negative impact on economic growth.

The central concept of the new theory should be transparency and partnership...this action is biased against growth...I disagree this should be pursued.

12.7

NGOs with some leadership from individuals and groups should increase awareness of the dangers associated with monopolies created by political and economic groups among the media and public.

Policies that foster equal opportunity should prevent this...Implement policies that create synergies among growth, equity, and the environment...Growth does not have to cut equity...NGOs should work through political parties to influence government policy. Those policies should balance the macro with the micro polices.

Additional actions for Issue 12:

We need a global agreement that the elimination of poverty by economic growth is the top priority...Government should support development of new zero (or low) emission technology...NGOs with government support should increase efforts to popularize sustainable development with economic development.

13. Nuclear power plants around the world are aging.

All nuclear power plants are aging and will have to be decommissioned when their lifetime is expended. Techniques for decommissioning are not well in hand, and long term storage of decommissioned plants and materials will be required. In addition, some plants (e.g. Chernobyl) use technologies and control systems that have higher than standard risks. Nuclear power plants are designed to operate for a period of between 30 and 50 years; after that time, the plants have to be dismantled and the sites made safe for other uses. More than 300 facilities around the world will have to be decommissioned by 2010. Decommissioning may also be required in the case of an accident or nuclear plant closing for other reasons.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defines three stages of decommissioning: Storage with Surveillance (spent fuel is removed and liquid systems are drained, estimated time is 5 years); Restricted Site Release (buildings and shielding are dismantled); and Unrestricted Site Use (the reactor itself is dismantled).

To date, about 70 commercial reactors have been removed from operation. A 250 MW unit in East Germany was decommissioned by removing all nuclear systems from the site and the site is now used for agriculture. In Canada, at the site of three retired gas cooled reactors, Stage 3 has been delayed 50 years. In England, two 138 MW reactors have been closed; it has been proposed that a containment building be built around the buildings for a storage period of 100 years. In the US one closed plant is in a safe storage mode for 19 years and the other, opting for immediate dismantling, is expected to be cleared in 8 years. Reactor 2 at Three Mile Island required 14 years of clean up and is in storage until 2014 when the adjacent reactor will also be shut down. International programs for sharing information about decommissioning have already been established.

With the decommissioning of nuclear power plants and the accelerating energy requirements, new electric production will become far more important that generally appreciated. Developing economies will certainly require more energy. Fresh water can be produced from salt or brackish water using electricity. As a result nuclear power generation capacity may be expanded in the future. This electric energy source does not add greenhouse gases. The radioactive wastes may yet become a resource. Nevertheless, long term storage of radioactive materials will be required and vigilant security will be necessary to prevent the theft and illicit use.

Additional interviewee comments:

This issue is probably bigger than we think...Decommissioning of nuclear power plants cannot be solved efficiently at present...One of the most urgent and important decisions that has to be taken is the decision about disposal of radioactive material. It is an imminent global threat looking for an immediate global solution...nuclear power plants maybe be the main targets in future wars; therefore, it is regarded as a big hidden problem...France, with 80% of its capacity in ageing nuclear plants has the biggest problem.

Actions to address Issue 13 with a range of views on these actions:

13.1

Governments and international organizations should increase funding for development of alternate generation sources for electricity base loading.

This is the most objective action. Others seem to have more subjectivity attached...Alternatives to nuclear power are not too promising. Fossil power plants are cheap and quick, but contribute to global warming. Fusion always seems to be 40 years in the future. Fusion, incidentally, presents more difficult proliferation problems than fission reactors because of the possibilities for producing plutonium. Solar? won't save us...Ground solar can contribute to energy supply and should, but solar power satellites in earth orbit can be a long term alternative to nuclear. Both nuclear and solar satellites provide electricity without greenhouse gas effects...Owing to lump-sum investment, nuclear power is not suitable for developing countries. Coal and oil will still be the main energy source for China for a long time...Hydropower and wind energy can contribute, and are free of pollution...hydrogen can substitute for gasoline in transportation.

13.2

With government and private sector leadership, an international program should be established to build a trust fund to finance the dismantling of dangerous plants (Chernobyl type).

Nice idea, but not likely to be funded until some major accidents happen.

13.3

Government in partnership with the private sector should Include the cost of dismantling and storage of radioactive materials in pricing electricity.

Fine idea and will have an effect, but the idea should be applied to other sources too. Fossil fuels also have hidden costs that should be added to their overall economic analysis; hidden costs include health risks and global warming.

13.4

Government should support research for a breakthrough that would make use of the radioactive materials that are available at decommissioning.

This and action 14.5 are the most important ones that concern the disposal of radioactive materials. Since this is such a major global threat, it needs a globally organized response supported by all nations and NGOs...I do not have much confidence that a breakthrough will come in time.

13.5

Encourage the development of plasma torch and other technologies for the transmutation or destruction of dangerous radioactive materials - led by governments and corporations.

Not much confidence in this, but it is a direction for research.

13.6

Government should support private sector development of robots that will avoid part of the risks to humans in the process of decommissioning nuclear plants.

This is more practical, and a better policy than 13.4 and 13.5

Additional actions for Issue 13:

Constrain the development of nuclear power plants, especially in developing countries...Increase research on protection and treatment of nuclear wastes...quadruple funding for the development of safe, renewable, energy production.

14. The HIV epidemic will continue to spread.

In 1996 20 million people were infected with HIV, and more than 4.5 million had developed AIDS since the beginnings of the pandemic. The number of new cases of AIDS also set a record: just under 2 million. About 1.7 million people died from AIDS in 1995. The number of newly reported cases of HIV has doubled since 1991.

Infection rates exceed 25% in a number of major sub-Saharan African cities. By the year 2000 there will be 26 million adults living with HIV worldwide.

The possible consequences of this epidemic in Africa - even without further spread - are dreadful: drastic reduction in the number of bright young people who would ordinarily take over leadership positions; fleeing tourism; acceleration of brain drain; and collapsing population growth. According to the National Academy of Sciences (USA), "By the year 2010, demographers estimate that AIDS will have lowered life expectancy from 66 to 33 years in Zambia, from 70 to 40 in Zimbabwe, from 68 to 40 in Kenya, and from 59 to 31 years in Uganda." According to the WHO Report for 1996, "Fighting Disease, Fostering Development," the number of AIDS cases in most regions will continue to rise sharply until 2005 - 2010 and will then continue at a high level. New cases in Southeast Asia now exceed those occurring in Africa. Variants of the virus which had been confined to distinct geographical locations are now appearing elsewhere; if a vaccine can be found for one strain it might not protect against another. Social marketing programs focusing on abstinence and safe sex are meeting some measure of success. The United Nations began its UNAIDS program in early 1996 to concentrate funding and international attention on programs for developing countries.

From a scientific standpoint, new information is being gained from research in dozens of countries, about the nature and etimology of the disease, but a vaccine or effective therapy remains elusive. Progress in this field includes: a new test for the virus that is 20 times more sensitive than previous tests; direct measurement of HIV viral load (the lower the viral burden the longer the delay in developing AIDS); and the use of protease inhibitors in combination with other drugs to stop the progress of HIV, and or slow the progression of AIDS.

Additional interviewee comments:

A cure for AIDS is not in sight; therefore, the most effective goal is prevention. The disease is not actually quiescent during the incubation period and can make 10 billion copies of the virus in 10 years. The "cocktail of drugs" to treat or slow the progress of the disease currently costs $20,000 per year, and is intended to be administered as soon as one is tested HIV positive to prevent the onset of AIDS. Some people in the richer regions of the world can afford this, but few can afford it in the poorer regions where the vast majority of the cases exist.

Actions to address Issue 14 with a range of views on these actions:

14.1

Governments should at least double the amount of funding devoted to scientific research on HIV and AIDS.

Doubling funding is not the answer...HIV research is already well funded. It is best instead to focus research on vaccines...where the scientific community feels strongly about the prospects of a breakthrough in 7-10 years.

14.2

Governments should at least double the amount of funding devoted to education and public persuasion to practice safe sex.

Rather than double the amount of funding, focus the attention on the small percentage of people who are responsible for a large percentage of the spread of HIV, such as urban prostitutes without driving them further underground. This focus should include continued education at treatment centers and contact tracing...Although contact tracing is very effective, issues of privacy have to be solved. This was the strategy that reduced sexually transmitted diseases before, not broad general education and posters...What has to be promoted is negotiating skills that teach a teenager how to negotiate with her boy friend about the need to use a condom... There is a lack of attention among older people. The AARP, for example, issued a warning to post menopausal women to whom "safe sex" has in the past only meant "avoid pregnancy"...UN and other international organizations and governments should implement these actions cooperatively.

14.3

Governments and NGOs should establish free condom programs in all countries in which the disease is spreading.

This action is on target, but Don't make them free. Research in Thailand and Brazil proved that low cost supply (subsidized) to the market place with social marketing was a better distribution strategy than free distribution programs. This should be coupled with more normal strategies to treat other sexually transmitted diseases noted in action 14.2...If condoms are free there is no affect; they are not valued at all. There must be a small price, possibly subsidized for the condoms.

14.4

Governments should establish programs that focus on the rights of women.

Women cannot protect themselves without the man's cooperation to use condoms...This is also an issue of status as well as rights. What are the choices for a woman whose husband dies of AIDS in a country that does not allow her to inherit property? Increasing women's status through education and employment translates into a closer ratio of males to females in urban populations, which translates into less commercial sex compared to urban areas with more males than females, and hence increasing urban commercial sex. African cities with higher male to female ratio have a higher incidence than those with nearly 1 to 1 ratios. Also, uneducated and unemployed females have a harder time saying no to men who don't use condoms...Brothels should mandate the use of condoms. Sex trade should be unionized to enforce condom use and have clients pay for condoms. Need research to find what a married woman can use to kill the virus without killing the sperm.

Actions 5 through 7 are not supported by UNAIDS or WHO. They are immoral, against human rights, and are not effective.

14.5*

Requiring HIV examinations in risky countries and among high risk groups is counterproductive by converting government health officials into policeman (leading some division of government from its people), and will lead to abuse and bribery. Government should focus just on the high risk transmitters of the disease.

14.6*

Searching for and notification of partners of HIV positive people can create a stigma and drive some underground. Instead, HIV testing should be made available at cost for individuals and subsidized for couples, including homosexual couples.

14.7*

Restricting international travel of people infected with HIV makes people the enemy of society, who in turn would act like the enemy, contribute to crime and act in other irresponsible ways. Instead we need people with HIV to identify with society, be socially responsible, and some in high profile positions. Every country needs a Magic Johnson. On the other hand, Cuba initiated a forced testing and humane quarantine policy that seems to have worked well.

Additional actions for Issue 14:

We need to study what people do once they are notified that they are HIV positive and then base policy on that research. What is the socio-economic impacts of 25% infection rates? We need to learn how to do contract tracing without being counter productive. UNAIDS is new, it is doing a good job of collecting information, but it is too soon to say how coordination of policy implementation will work...improve and standardize governments' information systems for management of HIV. Get all physicians involved in confidential case reporting. Information is the front line of defense...Stop legalization of prostitution, educate people through media to treat sexual problems correctly.

15. Work, unemployment, leisure, and underemployment is changing.

Automation, globalization of business, regional trade agreements, the shifting locus of low labor costs, improved productivity, the aging of the population, and the drive for improved corporate efficiency are causing changes in the labor forces of almost all nations. The changes include: increasing percent of service sector employment while manufacturing percentage is falling; the ratio of retired relative to active workers is growing almost everywhere, placing an economic burden on workers in the future; the displacement of many low-skilled, well-paid workers in the developed world is occurring simultaneously with a shortage of people with adequate skills; the inability of some developing countries to use developed technologies effectively. Underemployment and isolation of women from the cash economy remains an important issue in developing countries. The fundamental shift in how the "worlds" work gets done is creating a truly global labor force, yet lack of training and access divides labor into those capable of performing high paying work, and those who are not. If world demand for a workforce is significantly less than the supply, will there then be more creative uses of leisure, or will chronic, turbulent, destabilizing under- and unemployment result?

New technologies, the continuing drive for higher productivity, the global search for low cost labor, and the aggressive movement into markets that promise the most growth, like China, are forces that are changing who works and the work they perform. These forces will change, displace, under employ, and unemploy anyone caught unprepared.

With the transition from an industrial to a service economy, the rise of the newly industrialized countries (like Mexico and Indonesia), and the displacement of workers, structural unemployment in the form of labor surplus is a potential problem worldwide. It is far from clear what form the new world of work will ultimately take, but there is much to be concerned about, and excited by, in the transition that is taking place ahead. It will affect lifestyles, leisure, quality of life and working relationships worldwide.

Additional interviewee comments:

Unemployment is especially difficult in the former USSR where the concept of unemployment was relatively unknown and people do not want to change their profession. Women are adapting better than men. Although a market economy is very important, we cannot neglect the importance of planning and forecasting. In making labor forecasts we have to include not only local factors, but global technological and consciousness changes as well. Consider the re-employment of retired workers and their relationship with unemployed youth...Work was something you did to contribute to the economic system, but now it is more for self-expression and self-development...Successful work integrates with your life intertwining work, play, and leisure. Statistics about working hours increasing or decreasing can be misleading. If work is integrated into your whole life and you lose that job, your life seems destroyed. Segmenting one's life has some advantage...Although the market economy is very important, we cannot neglect the importance of planning and making forecasts is essential. In making labor forecasts we have to include local factors, global technological and consciousness changes.

It would be nice if we could escape from the connection between work and the economic cycle by having machines doing all the work that no one wants to do and receive a guaranteed minimum income. This would let us be more human without being a challenge to some other part of the system. Then we could navigate and converse.

Actions to address Issue 15 with a range of views on these actions:

15.1

NGOs, corporations, and international organizations should apply information/communication technologies in developing countries in ways that improve productivity in low income communities.

Pair developed with developing regions as possible.

15.2

Governments and NGOs should promote public/private funding of research and development in distance learning technologies.

Most countries have begun this action...It is also helpful for collecting and coordinating information among the federal, regional, and local authorities about unemployment, job listings, and training center's activities. Regional authorities are an impediment to rapid implementation of this action, and it is difficult to forecast what skills will be necessary as we make this economic transition...Businesses should also participate in funding.

15.3

Governments should build incentives into the system to promote education. For example, Japan improves the technological literacy of its populace by offering incentives (such as overnight electronic transfer of tax refunds to those citizens who file their income tax statements electronically).

It is essential to educate the public about the rate of change they will face...Only by competition can learning consciousness be promoted and then the social development and progress will follow.

15.4

Governments should fund programs in cooperation with the private sector that use the emerging information technologies and consider implications of cognitive science for designing learning environments, and achieving educational/training goals.

15.5

Government and corporations should fund and market low cost computer communications in schools, libraries, businesses, hospitals, etc.

15.6

NGOs should initiate programs everywhere that use constructive uses for leisure - like Habitat for Humanity and the Peace Corps.

15.7

UN organizations with some leadership by governments should establish international programs of retraining to help avoid technological obsolescence.

15.8

UN organizations should initiate some major projects in the social sciences to understand the meaning and purpose of work as a desire and source of meaning in various parts of the world.

15.9

The private sector, governments, and NGOs should create toll-free telephone numbers and computer networks to match demand and supply of labor between the developing, newly developed, and more developed nations.

Additional action for Issue 15:

Shift payroll and income taxes to ecological taxes.

2.2 Mapping The Issues

These issues are not independent; they are interdependent; hence, one can intensify or mitigate another. Taken together they form a network of intertwining forces that will shape the future. Just how do they interact? How will a change in one affect the others? Will it intensify or diminish them? If such questions could be answered, then root causes could be addressed.

The staff constructed a modified cross impact matrix3 to map and explore the interactions among the 15 issues. The cells in the matrix were filled in by asking what are the impact of the issues in the left column on the issues listed along the top row. In Figure 3 below, an entry of +3 was used to indicate that continuing influence of the issue in the row would have a major causal effect on the issue in the column; and a -3 was used to indicate a major affect in the decrease in the issue's growth. Thus the occurrence of Issue 1, "World population growth" was judged to cause a major (+3) increase in Issue 2, "Fresh water is becoming scarce." The advent of Issue 8, "The changing role of women," was judged to have a major negative impact (-3) on Issue 1, "World population growth." As women's status improves, fertility rates decrease. The numbers are then added across the rows to see which issues have more influence on the others. The numbers are added as whole numbers, e.g. -3 and 3 would be totaled as an impact of 6, not an impact of 0. The last column gives these totals.

The reader is encouraged to rate these impacts themselves. The exercise helps one think through the cross-impacts of the issues, but one should not take the numbers too seriously. The staff's ratings found the most "most significant" to be Issue 10, "Information Technology", with two issues as a very close second: Issue 1, "World population growth" and Issue 12 Economic growth brings both promising and threatening consequences.

Figure 4 illustrates another less quantitative way of displaying these interactions. Solid line arrows show +3 effects, and the dotted line arrows show -3 impacts.

2.3 OBSERVATIONS AND COMMON THEMES

Many participants noted that this year's work focused mostly on issues or problems that left an exploration of positive developments for a later date. Yet even with this problem-oriented focus, almost all participants identified practical and potentially effective actions to address the issues. There were disagreements on the actions as presented previously, but the areas of agreement were significant and in the aggregate present a stunning framework for global action.

In almost all cases, one or more participants said about each of the 15 issues: "this issue is fundamental to all of the others. For example, improved decision making affects the ability to address all issues; the gap between the rich and poor can lead the world into continuous instability; and so forth. Intelligent policy implemented in one area can help in other areas - perhaps most areas - as well. But the reverse is true also: neglect one and all may deteriorate. Hence, it is important to see the whole picture to understand the importance of the individual issues and actions.

In responding to the questionnaires and during the interviews, most respondents commented on the global state of affairs, both at present and in the future, and suggested or implied actions that they thought would be beneficial. In reviewing their comments, certain common themes seem to emerge. Some of those themes and a sampling of the interview comments and observations that support these observations are presented below.

2.3.1

The majority of the global issues identified in this report are interdependent - by improving one, others are also improved - and the actions to address these issues are mostly mutually re-enforcing.

The Earth is ready for democratic, transparent, and participatory global planning, global institutions, global resources and global action, applied to local expressions of global problems....This global strategy and global actions will not be easy. But it will be the only way to organize existing intellectual, scientific, technical and financial resources available in our days. Through a global institution, as distinct from an inter-national one, like the UN, humankind will be in condition to face situations like the genocide we are facing now in Zaire and Rwanda. Global institutions are composed of several sectors such as national governments, corporations, UN and other international organizations, NGOs, individuals and other groups...

The lack of a holistic view of the human situation is a failure (behind) many of the trends identified in Round 1 of the 1996 Global Look-Out study...The number of players in decisions is increasing, making decision making more complex. Consider: Does China have to be poor to save the world environment?...Nations can "pool" their sovereignty to address issues beyond their borders that they cannot manage alone.

2.3.2

Sustainability is a concept that provides useful guidance to policy. Many policies are now based on perceptions of their impacts on sustainability; this includes scientific, technical, and economic analyses of environmental impacts, and the value and extent of resources.

Facing the conflicts between economy and ecology, we (China) have to chose the way of sustainable development, which should be environmentally sound, economically productive and behaviorally acceptable. To promote it, we have to combine technical, institutional and cultural measures through cooperation among policy makers, industries and the public...

Presently, there are more than 60 Comprehensive Experimental Communities for Social Development, more than 50 ecological counties in China....both economic and social development should be carried out in light of theory of sustainable development. Resources and environmental factors must be incorporated in the assessment of economic development and differences among different countries and regions must also be taken into consideration... We should have great confidence in our development trajectory to sustainable development.

China pays much attention on sustainable development. Most scientists, corporation managers, leadership and even some citizens in China are talking about sustainable development.

2.3.3

Many desirable policies - especially those addressing environmental and economic relationships - are dependent on scientific, technical, and economic standards that do not yet exist.

...Create international data bases of people connected with these materials [biological and chemical weapons]; create standards for management of these materials and common international training of personnel so that each knows what their counterparts will be doing in critical situations...International data standards [pertinent to detection of international crime] should be established, such that forecasting could be done...UN organizations should become increasingly involved in this issue [terrorism] by setting international standards of behavior, regulations, and the legislative base to manage terrorism.

The role of government [in telecommunications] needs definition, the WTO, ITU, EU, and other international organizations can help coach governments on their roll in promoting global harmonization of communications rules and standards...We must create some measures for standardization where possible; and expert software systems.

It is so obvious that this [implement environmental full cost accounting] should be done, but no one can do it until the scientists come to agreement about these issues. So, first organize the scientific research to answer these issues, then talk about how to implement...Tradeable pollution permits won't work until we know what criteria and standards that are to be used for these permits and who determines what is polluting and what are the acceptable or tolerable limits...An international system of certification and control of export should be established to prevent production and export of ecologically "dirty" products. This cannot be done immediately, but we should move in the direction of international standards among countries.

Complete treaties with standards and reporting, including those that protect the rights of women and children.

2.3.4

Economic growth provides the means to increase employment, help solve environmental problems, improve the general welfare, and promote political stability.

The futurists and scholars found a number of developments relating to both negative and positive consequences of growth that were condensed into Issue 12. Policy makers were very different. They focused on the positive consequences of growth and the necessity of it to address the other issues in this report.

Implementation of policies that promote economic growth should be a priority of all nations. With good policy, growth and improved environmental conditions can co-exist...(Increasing effort to promote free trade) should be the top priority instead of (more conventional) aid...if trade rules included environmental efficiency criteria and GDP accounts and prices included social costs, trade could move more toward sustainable economic development...I would like to note one more problem. It is a problem of employment and unemployment in poor countries. Novel technologies do not solve this problem. The unemployed population form the base for the increasing of terrorism, crime groups etc. (From China) ...People must work to survive, which is increasingly important in China...The most critical problem for Russia is unemployment. It is a new problem for us, because the ideology of socialist model of evolution dominated in Russia during decades. There was not even the concept of unemployment in this ideology...The unemployed population create the background of growth of crime and instability in society... (We believe that) only about 20% of the unemployed population is registered at the labor exchange...

2.3.5

Since education is one of the fundamental strategies to address most of the global issues in this report, it is time to identify the most cost/effective educational materials, curricula, and distribution media for global education and institutional arrangements to accelerate learning.

Increasing the qualifications of women through education should be a priority to help solve the population problem...add improvement of people's education and quality of life in general...before new credit is wholesaled to countries for micro credit, conditions should be attached that improve democratic governance, training and education...Encourage multinational corporations to get more involved in education...the gap between rich and poor countries cannot be done by redistribution of resources, but by completing the organization of their economies and educational systems...consider media and education programs to demonstrate alternatives to violence to solve problems...couple education to change attitudes in addition to enforcing legislation...Media moguls should take on more responsibility in terms of not going to the politics of confrontation but using the process of education...We need education at treatment centers and contact tracing. This was the strategy that reduced sexually transmitted diseases before...These strategies need consensus. Consensus requires moral education...

2.3.6

Information and communications technologies can help solve many global problems but could intensify others. The falling costs and rising power of information technology is a powerful influence on the issues considered here.

With global communications, advanced work like software development in India can be imported as a kind of "reversed brain drain" to create work that is worth doing...Although the perceived gap in living standards is exacerbated by improving global communications, these same telecommunications capabilities can play a role in addressing this issue. For example, tele-medicine and tele-education can significantly help reduce the actual gap in living standards...

There is no question that information technology is transforming the human rights struggle around the world...Its potential for damage, as we get more dependent on it, could be more than conventional weapons, especially when one contemplates the possibilities of information warfare...Remember the human factor in this is education. People must be educated and trained to use these new technologies well. Otherwise we get the underdeveloped use of developed technologies. It is not simply enough to buy computers. Too many developing countries invest important amounts of money to buy hardware and software this is never correctly used. The loss is not only money, but time, effective application of technology for development, and despair.

2.3.7

Proactive management will be more important in the future; linking early warning systems to political decisions is currently more illusion than fact.

Early intervention by threatening or even bombing would have deterred most of the violence in the former Yugoslavia...difficult to connect early warning to appropriate action. Although there is better sharing of intelligence now, governments will not let their intelligence systems be used by the UN in the same way the UN Security Council can use governments' military force...Making decisions among sovereign states is a central problem. Diplomats tend to let things go until they become a crisis. We are increasingly faced with issues that cut across national boundaries. Coordination among nation-states can be a way to avoid making decisions. The rain forest in Brazil is still shrinking, even though the greatest international coordination efforts in history have been created by UNCED in Brazil...Previous attempts appeals to moral values, instead, focus on political and economic cost/benefit analysis (millions of dollars to cure problem vs funds for early intervention to prevent problem). We also need to establish a criteria on when to intervene against a sovereign nation-state...If these early warning systems were implemented as a global or international system, then the government would be more likely to act on the information...

2.3.8

Technology may have its problems, but the introduction of new technologies is essential if some of the world's major problems are to be solved.

Begin immediate research and development programs to produce the means for producing inexpensive water from salt water...I think, one action, i.e. development of new technology (clean production, zero emission etc.) in light of sustainable development should be added (to the list of actions)...The best solution to this problem is the development of agriculture on the base of biotechnology...most problems have a technological fix. Bill Reilley, (former) head of the EPA said the US has solved its environmental problems (by regulation). The Hemlock Society in the US is even advising those wanting to commit suicide not to use post 1993 autos, because the emissions will no longer kill them!...science and technology can feed the world...Research on measures to reduce water consumption and improving efficiency of water use should be organized by government with scientist working cooperatively...

The need for more electricity is clear. The alternatives to nuclear power are not too promising. Fossil power plants are cheap and quick but contribute to global warming. Fusion always seems to be 40 years in the future no matter when the problem is examined.... Sure it would be helpful to explore electricity generating alternatives, but nothing on the horizon seems promising. Solar? won't save us...Others say it can save us...ground solar and solar power satellites could produce a significant portion of global energy...The introduction of novel technologies will result in decreasing of demand on natural resources as well as decreasing of pollution of environment.

2.3.9

The strengthening of international organizations and invention of other organizations and global authorities "with real but limited powers" are necessary to successfully address the issues in this report. A key factor will be the emerging relationship of global corporations and international organizations.

There is good and bad in all things, growth, info tech, etc. when the bad out weighs the good, then international organizations should intervene...The global agreement on CFCs (Montreal Accords) shows that it is possible to reach important decisions...The evolution of the EU has shown that supranational decision making is possible...All international organizations will have to rethink their purpose and structure....The Secretary-General of the UN has a clear mandate to implement change of the UN system of organizations...include new social contract between business and government...International organizations should be active in preparing the intellectual background for implementation of [many of the actions in this report]...This cannot be done immediately, but we should move in the direction of international standards among countries...

2.3.10

Globalization is a trend affecting all 15 issues, which is rapidly evolving with little success in creating a global legal framework.

Global authoritativeness not world government is part of the solution...It [disposal of nuclear waste] is an imminent global threat looking for an immediate global solution...

We need a global agreement that the elimination of poverty by economic growth is the top priority...The global availability of CNN may also educate, in terms of changing attitudes and cultures...Privatization is a global trend that will influence the future development of cyberspace...Now the question is how best to do the market approach in an increasingly global economy...In making labor forecasts we have to include local factors, global technological and consciousness changes...Global harmonization of standards and rules is being made more possible by Internet..."Global partnership for development" should be the new roll for reorganized Britten Woods Organizations in cooperation with OECD and UN organizations...Now with global communications, advanced work like software development can be imported as a kind of "reverse brain drain."...Is there a third alternative to a system of national sovereignty and global government?...Terrorism is a virus that is growing. No global system exists to stop it...Governments don't control the prices; the global market and cartels control the prices of natural resources...Global telecommunications reduces the need for middleman retailers; buyer and supplier can meet directly in cyberspace making geography and social status irrelevant...Small and micro enterprises will be different, perhaps just a consortium of friends but operating globally.

2.3.11

Multicultural discourses are required to identify common ethics and new norms for the globalized milieu of the future.

We do not lack increasingly sophisticated computer systems; we lack the global ethical basis for decision making. The crucial part of education is wisdom over and beyond knowledge and information...The number of problem countries is declining, even in Africa. The remaining problems (stem from) kleptocrats who plunder their country's treasuries. Nigeria does not really have the foreign debt it is supposed to, but the balancing entry is in the form of Swiss bank accounts and real estate in London...Recognition, understanding and respect for local values, culture and the way of thinking in developing democratic countries is of prime importance for the emerging global order...leaders need to understand these global issues and actions because...incompetence can lead to corruption.

These issues, actions, and ranges of views will form the basis for a series of briefings to be conducted by Millennium Project staff and chairs of the project's nodes around the world. Feedback on these briefings and on this book will be used to up-date next year's report.

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