by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
“Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, should read this incredible
document, period!”
Technological Forecasting & Social Change (February 2009)
Listed first in the TOP
TEN 2008 der Zukunftsliteratur (best future literature in 2008) by pro
ZUKUNFT, Austria, and
among the “Best Books and Reports” by World
Future Society Futures Survey’s Annual Indexes and Best Books.
"While it is not possible to predict the future, the 2008
State of the Future report enables us to think analytically about crucial
global challenges, such as environmental security."
Hans Blix, President, WFUNA, and Former Director-General, IAEA
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Paperback with CD-ROM ... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research
behind Executive Summary: Arabic, Azeri, Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Spanish ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2 (See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" ) |
What is New in This Year’s Report
The 2008 State of the Future continues
its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and
highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers.
Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
The Millennium Project and its State
of the Future report represent best practice on how collective intelligence
across borders and sectors can be focused on critical global challenges and
opportunities. The enhanced participation of developing nations (especially
in Africa) in such futures outlook is essential to our shared future.
Olive Shisana, CEO, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa
Success for policymakers depends upon having some ability
to anticipate the consequences of their actions. The insights that the State
of the Future provides hold great appeal in this regard.
Ali M. Abbasov, Minister of Communications and Information Technologies
of the Republic of Azerbaijan
An important commitment of any government is to look at
the future with responsibility. The 2008 State of the Future
and the Millennium Project research and foresight work are necessary in order
to aim at ambitious social goals and to commit ourselves to achieve them.
Enrique Peña Nieto, Constitutional Governor of the State of
Mexico
The State of the Future challenges all
of us working on the global convergence of ICT to improve knowledge-based
governance worldwide.
Goran Radman, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation––South East
Europe
The 15 Global Challenges updated annually continue to be
the best introduction by far to the key issues of the early
21st century.
Michael Marien, editor, Future Survey
The State of the Future provides unique
political, economic, and social insights into the progress the world is making
through the SOFI (State of the Future Index) and increasingly clear perspectives
into the 15 Global Challenges humanity must learn how to mitigate and manage
as we continue to evolve into our mutual future.
John J. Gottsman, Chair, World Future Society
The 2008 State of the Future is a “must
read” if you want to stay in the hub of the wheel of world future issues.
Kazuo Mizuta, Professor,
Kyoto Sangyo, University, Japan
Nine of the eleven annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.
This “Report Card on the Future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,500 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2008 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project’s 12 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:
- 15 Global Challenges – Prospects, Strategies, Insights
- State of the Future Index for the world and nations
- Government Future Strategy Units and some potentials for international strategic coordination
- Global Energy Collective Intelligence – system design options
- Environmental Security – overview
- Real-Time Delphi technique
- 700 Annotated Scenario Sets
- and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition
It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.
Paperback with CD-ROM. 100-page print and over 6,000 pages CD-ROM
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping. Discount 40% for orders
over 10 copies.
(Payment by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order)
Table of Contents – Print Section
Table
of Contents – Print Section
Foreword
Acknowledgments
1. Global Challenges - 11
2. State of the Future Index - 43
3. Real-Time Delphi Technique - 55
4. Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination - 59
5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence - 71
6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 83
Appendix
Millennium
Project Participants Demographics
Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Table of Contents –
CD-ROM Section
Executive Summary (10 pages)
1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)
2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic
Coordination
4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21
pages)
6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence
7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions,
and Policy Considerations (42 pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in
Military Actions (113 pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal
Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)
Appendices
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Science and Technology
Appendix E: Global Energy Collective Intelligence
Appendix F: Government Future Strategy Units
Appendix G: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix H: Global Ethics
Appendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050
Appendix J: World Leaders on Global Challenges
Appendix K: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research
in Decisionmaking
Appendix N: Real Time Delphi Process
Appendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario Sets
Appendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
Ethics
Related Organizations
Global
Energy Scenarios and Related Research
Women/Gender
Organizations
Appendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future
and the Millennium Project
Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project
Figures
Figure 1. SOFI 2007 with alternative
projections by trend impact analysis
Figure 2. Global surface temperature anomalies (0C)
Figure 3. Global trends of freedom
Figure 4. Regional internet population growth
Figure 5. Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%)
Figure 6. Physicians density (per 10 000 population)
Figure 7. Growth of international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)
Figure 8. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007
Figure 9. Women in national parliaments (percentage)
Figure 10. Global challenges and SOFI process
Figure 11. SOFI 2007 with trend impact analysis
Figure 12. Unemployment with trend impact analysis
Figure 13. Correlation between poverty, unemployment, and population growth
(income less than $1 per day) (low- and mid-income countries)
Figure 14. SOFI using IFs data in the Millennium Project template
Figure 15. SOFI comparison with IFs data and Millennium Project data
Figure 16. South Korea SOFI using IFs data and Millennium Project data
Figure 17. SOFI of the Republic of South Korea
Figure 18. Screen-shots of the SOFI presentation
Figure 19. Screen-shot of a Real-Time Delphi questionnaire
Figure 20. Demographics of RTD participants since 2006
Figure 21. Possible representation of the global
energy elements
Figure 22. Example of a unit of information, with
column of choices about the information
Figure 23. Argument-structured information overview of an issue
Figure 24. Recursive linked interface
Figure 25. Politician and staff member, GENIS flow diagram
Figure 26. Energy dash board example for a question during a legislative hearing
Figure 27. Failed States Index 2008
Figure 28. Expenditures and estimated costs of various
programs
Figure 29. Ratifications of 12 multilateral environmental agreements, by UNEP
GEO regions
Figure 30. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2008
Figure 31. Participants in the 2007–08 program
Figure 32. Participants since 1996
Boxes
Box 1. Where is humanity winning and losing
Box 2. SOFI variables
Box 3. SOFI 2007–08 study
Box 4. Systemic SOFI and 2008 SOFI
Box 5. SOFI variables for the Republic of South Korea
Box 6. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently
adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed
What Is New in This Year’s Report
- Both the short and long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated.
- Climate change has received increased emphasis in Challenge 1 on Sustainable Development.
- The State of the Future Index was improved for enhancing its capabilities to identify promising policies and actions, and it is being used to assess the use of the International Futures econometric model for automatically computing global and national SOFIs.
- SOFIs were computed for the Republic of South Korea and for South Africa.
- The Real-Time Delphi technique was further developed for increasing its analytical capabilities, and a user-friendly interface was developed for the questionnaires' easy set-up. The new features were successfully tested in studies for assessing SOFI variables and for collecting expert views for studies conducted by other organizations (e.g., UNESCO, WFUNA, and the World Bank).
- The Government Future Strategies Units chapter presents brief overviews of 10 government units with suggestions for upgrading their capabilities and international coordination. Chapter 4 in the CD has the overviews of over 30 countries' future strategy systems.
- The Global Energy Collective Intelligence chapter provides basic concepts and software options for a collective intelligence system to support political decisionmaking, research, and public understanding. The concepts and software can be adapted for other areas such as climate change, water, and the other challenges described in Chapter 1.
- More than 200 items related to environmental security were identified, assessed, and organized over the past year. A distilled version is presented in Chapter 6 and the full text of over 1,100 items identified since 2002 is available in CD Chapter 9.1.
- The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it
also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project research:
• Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along with an introduction describing their development.
• Three Middle East Peace scenarios based on a three-round Delphi study.
• Science and Technology scenarios and the two-year supporting study.
• Four Global Energy Scenarios and supporting study.
• An analysis of the statements by world leaders delivered at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000.
• Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN military doctrine on environmental issues; potential military environmental crimes and the International Criminal Court; changing environmental security military requirements in 2010–25.
• Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development, and an international review of the concept of creating a "Partnership for Sustainable Development."
• Study of factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking.
• An Annotated Scenarios Bibliography of over 700 scenarios or scenario sets.
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