all www millennium-project.org

Paperback with CD-ROM ... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis. Executive Summary: Arabic, English, German, Korean, Russian, Spanish ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2 Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672 Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping Order (See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )

Table of Contents

 List of Figures and Boxes

 What is New in This Year’s Report

Nine of the eleven annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.

This “Report Card on the Future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,500 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2008 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project’s 12 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:

• 15 Global Challenges – Prospects, Strategies, Insights
• State of the Future Index for the world and nations
• Government Future Strategy Units and some potentials for international strategic coordination
• Global Energy Collective Intelligence – system design options
• Environmental Security – overview
• Real-Time Delphi technique
• 700 Annotated Scenario Sets
• and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition

It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.

Paperback with CD-ROM. 100-page print and over 6,000 pages CD-ROM
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping.   Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies.
(Payment by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order)

Table of Contents

Table of Contents – Print Section

Table of Contents – CD

List of Figures and Boxes
 

Table of Contents – Print Section
 

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary - 1

1. Global Challenges - 11

2. State of the Future Index - 43

3. Real-Time Delphi Technique - 55

4. Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination - 59

5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence - 71

6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 83

Appendix
          Millennium Project Participants Demographics

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures and Boxes

Table of Contents – CD-ROM Section

Executive Summary (10 pages)

1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)

2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)
2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)

3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)

4. Governance-related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination
4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)

5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)

6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence

7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)

8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)

9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)

10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)

11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)

Appendices
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Science and Technology
Appendix E: Global Energy Collective Intelligence
Appendix F: Government Future Strategy Units
Appendix G: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix H: Global Ethics
Appendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050
Appendix J: World Leaders on Global Challenges
Appendix K: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix N: Real Time Delphi Process
Appendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario Sets
Appendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
          Ethics Related Organizations
          Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
          Women/Gender Organizations
Appendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project
Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project

List of Figures and Boxes

Figures

Figure 1. SOFI 2007 with alternative projections by trend impact analysis
Figure 2. Global surface temperature anomalies (0C)
Figure 3. Global trends of freedom
Figure 4. Regional internet population growth
Figure 5. Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%)
Figure 6. Physicians density (per 10 000 population)
Figure 7. Growth of international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)
Figure 8. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007
Figure 9. Women in national parliaments (percentage)
Figure 10. Global challenges and SOFI process
Figure 11. SOFI 2007 with trend impact analysis
Figure 12. Unemployment with trend impact analysis
Figure 13. Correlation between poverty, unemployment, and population growth (income less than $1 per day) (low- and mid-income countries)
Figure 14. SOFI using IFs data in the Millennium Project template
Figure 15. SOFI comparison with IFs data and Millennium Project data
Figure 16. South Korea SOFI using IFs data and Millennium Project data
Figure 17. SOFI of the Republic of South Korea
Figure 18. Screen-shots of the SOFI presentation
Figure 19. Screen-shot of a Real-Time Delphi questionnaire
Figure 20. Demographics of RTD participants since 2006
Figure 21. Possible representation of the global energy elements
Figure 22. Example of a unit of information, with column of choices about the information
Figure 23. Argument-structured information overview of an issue
Figure 24. Recursive linked interface
Figure 25. Politician and staff member, GENIS flow diagram
Figure 26. Energy dash board example for a question during a legislative hearing
Figure 27. Failed States Index 2008
Figure 28. Expenditures and estimated costs of various programs
Figure 29. Ratifications of 12 multilateral environmental agreements, by UNEP GEO regions
Figure 30. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2008
Figure 31. Participants in the 2007–08 program
Figure 32. Participants since 1996

Boxes

Box 1. Where is humanity winning and losing
Box 2. SOFI variables
Box 3. SOFI 2007–08 study
Box 4. Systemic SOFI and 2008 SOFI
Box 5. SOFI variables for the Republic of South Korea
Box 6. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed

What Is New in This Year’s Report

• Both the short and long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated.
• Climate change has received increased emphasis in Challenge 1 on Sustainable Development.
• The State of the Future Index was improved for enhancing its capabilities to identify promising policies and actions, and it is being used to assess the use of the International Futures econometric model for automatically computing global and national SOFIs.
• SOFIs were computed for the Republic of South Korea and for South Africa.
• The Real-Time Delphi technique was further developed for increasing its analytical capabilities, and a user-friendly interface was developed for the questionnaires' easy set-up. The new features were successfully tested in studies for assessing SOFI variables and for collecting expert views for studies conducted by other organizations (e.g., UNESCO, WFUNA, and the World Bank).
• The Government Future Strategies Units chapter presents brief overviews of 10 government units with suggestions for upgrading their capabilities and international coordination. Chapter 4 in the CD has the overviews of over 30 countries' future strategy systems.
• The Global Energy Collective Intelligence chapter provides basic concepts and software options for a collective intelligence system to support political decisionmaking, research, and public understanding. The concepts and software can be adapted for other areas such as climate change, water, and the other challenges described in Chapter 1.
• More than 200 items related to environmental security were identified, assessed, and organized over the past year. A distilled version is presented in Chapter 6 and the full text of over 1,100 items identified since 2002 is available in CD Chapter 9.1.
• The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project research:
  • Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along with an introduction describing their development.
  • Three Middle East Peace scenarios based on a three-round Delphi study.
  • Science and Technology scenarios and the two-year supporting study.
  • Four Global Energy Scenarios and supporting study.
  • An analysis of the statements by world leaders delivered at the UN Millennium Summit in 2000.
  • Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN military doctrine on environmental issues; potential military environmental crimes and the International Criminal Court; changing environmental security military requirements in 2010–25.
  • Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development, and an international review of the concept of creating a "Partnership for Sustainable Development."
  • Study of factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking.
  • An Annotated Scenarios Bibliography of over 700 scenarios or scenario sets.

Order

To order please use this secure order form.
2Checkout.com, Inc. is an authorized retailer of the Millennium Project.

OR

email: millennium-project@igc.org or fax: 202-686-5179 and mention:

Title: 2008 State of the Future
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2

Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping ($6.00 in the USA and $12.00 to all other countries). Discount for order of 10 issues or more: 40%

Quantity: number of copies

Method of payment: major credit cards or US dollars check or money order

Billing address:

Shipping address:

Note: those who bought last year's edition will get a 25% discount if they order through email to millennium-project@igc.org or fax.