2008 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu

“Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, should read this incredible document, period!”
                              Technological Forecasting & Social Change (February 2009)

Listed first in the TOP TEN 2008 der Zukunftsliteratur (best future literature in 2008) by pro ZUKUNFT, Austria, and
among the “Best Books and Reports” by World Future Society Futures Survey’s Annual Indexes and Best Books.

"While it is not possible to predict the future, the 2008 State of the Future report enables us to think analytically about crucial global challenges, such as environmental security."
                              Hans Blix, President, WFUNA, and Former Director-General, IAEA


 

Paperback with CD-ROM

... enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind
this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years
of study and analysis.

Executive Summary: Arabic, Azeri, Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Persian, Russian, Spanish

ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping
Order

(See the article in The Independent: "We've seen the future ... and we may not be doomed" )

Table of Contents

 List of Figures and Boxes

 What is New in This Year’s Report

The 2008 State of the Future continues its excellent annual tradition of providing a comprehensive, insightful, and highly readable review of issues and options facing global decisionmakers.
                              Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize

The Millennium Project and its State of the Future report represent best practice on how collective intelligence across borders and sectors can be focused on critical global challenges and opportunities. The enhanced participation of developing nations (especially in Africa) in such futures outlook is essential to our shared future.
                              Olive Shisana, CEO, Human Sciences Research Council, South Africa

Success for policymakers depends upon having some ability to anticipate the consequences of their actions. The insights that the State of the Future provides hold great appeal in this regard.
                              Ali M. Abbasov, Minister of Communications and Information Technologies of the Republic of Azerbaijan

An important commitment of any government is to look at the future with responsibility. The 2008 State of the Future and the Millennium Project research and foresight work are necessary in order to aim at ambitious social goals and to commit ourselves to achieve them.
                              Enrique Peña Nieto, Constitutional Governor of the State of Mexico

The State of the Future challenges all of us working on the global convergence of ICT to improve knowledge-based governance worldwide.
                              Goran Radman, Chairman, Microsoft Corporation––South East Europe

The 15 Global Challenges updated annually continue to be the best introduction by far to the key issues of the early 21st century.
                              Michael Marien, editor, Future Survey

The State of the Future provides unique political, economic, and social insights into the progress the world is making through the SOFI (State of the Future Index) and increasingly clear perspectives into the 15 Global Challenges humanity must learn how to mitigate and manage as we continue to evolve into our mutual future.
                              John J. Gottsman, Chair, World Future Society

The 2008 State of the Future is a “must read” if you want to stay in the hub of the wheel of world future issues.
                              Kazuo Mizuta, Professor, Kyoto Sangyo, University, Japan

Nine of the eleven annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.

This “Report Card on the Future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,500 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2008 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project’s 12 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:

It is produced by the Millennium Project, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.

Paperback with CD-ROM. 100-page print and over 6,000 pages CD-ROM
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping.   Discount 40% for orders over 10 copies.
(Payment by major credit cards or US dollars check or money order)


Table of Contents

The 2008 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2007–08. The enclosed CD of about 6,300 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.

Table of Contents Print Section

Table of Contents CD

List of Figures and Boxes
 

Table of Contents Print Section
 

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary - 1

1. Global Challenges - 11

2. State of the Future Index - 43

3. Real-Time Delphi Technique - 55

4. Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination - 59

5. Global Energy Collective Intelligence - 71

6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 83

Appendix
          Millennium Project Participants Demographics

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures and Boxes


Table of Contents CD-ROM Section


Executive Summary (10 pages)

1. Global Challenges (1,100 pages)

2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (286 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (89 pages)
2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)

3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)

4. Governance-related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination
4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)

5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)

6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence

7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)

8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)

9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)

10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)

11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)

Appendices
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Science and Technology
Appendix E: Global Energy Collective Intelligence
Appendix F: Government Future Strategy Units
Appendix G: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix H: Global Ethics
Appendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050
Appendix J: World Leaders on Global Challenges
Appendix K: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix N: Real Time Delphi Process
Appendix O: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario Sets
Appendix P: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
          Ethics Related Organizations
          Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
          Women/Gender Organizations
Appendix R: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and the Millennium Project
Appendix S: Publications of the Millennium Project

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures and Boxes

Figures

Figure 1. SOFI 2007 with alternative projections by trend impact analysis
Figure 2. Global surface temperature anomalies (0C)
Figure 3. Global trends of freedom
Figure 4. Regional internet population growth
Figure 5. Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%)
Figure 6. Physicians density (per 10 000 population)
Figure 7. Growth of international organizations (NGOs and IGOs)
Figure 8. Global trends in armed conflict, 1946-2007
Figure 9. Women in national parliaments (percentage)
Figure 10. Global challenges and SOFI process
Figure 11. SOFI 2007 with trend impact analysis
Figure 12. Unemployment with trend impact analysis
Figure 13. Correlation between poverty, unemployment, and population growth (income less than $1 per day) (low- and mid-income countries)
Figure 14. SOFI using IFs data in the Millennium Project template
Figure 15. SOFI comparison with IFs data and Millennium Project data
Figure 16. South Korea SOFI using IFs data and Millennium Project data
Figure 17. SOFI of the Republic of South Korea
Figure 18. Screen-shots of the SOFI presentation
Figure 19. Screen-shot of a Real-Time Delphi questionnaire
Figure 20. Demographics of RTD participants since 2006
Figure 21. Possible representation of the global energy elements
Figure 22. Example of a unit of information, with column of choices about the information
Figure 23. Argument-structured information overview of an issue
Figure 24. Recursive linked interface
Figure 25. Politician and staff member, GENIS flow diagram
Figure 26. Energy dash board example for a question during a legislative hearing
Figure 27. Failed States Index 2008
Figure 28. Expenditures and estimated costs of various programs
Figure 29. Ratifications of 12 multilateral environmental agreements, by UNEP GEO regions
Figure 30. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2008
Figure 31. Participants in the 2007–08 program
Figure 32. Participants since 1996

Boxes

Box 1. Where is humanity winning and losing
Box 2. SOFI variables
Box 3. SOFI 2007–08 study
Box 4. Systemic SOFI and 2008 SOFI
Box 5. SOFI variables for the Republic of South Korea
Box 6. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed


What Is New in This Year’s Report


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