2009 State of the Future
by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
"Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, should read this incredible document, period!"
Technological Forecasting & Social Change
"If you think too much has changed too radically lately, read the State of the Future and think again!"
Olcay Unver, Coordinator, United Nations World Water Assessment Programme
Invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States, and civil society.
Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations
State of the Future 2009 presents an in-depth analysis that underlines the need of national policies with great global impact.
Alonso Lujambio, Minister of Education, Mexico
The 2009 State of the Future updates humanity’s thinking about the future and includes insights and collective intelligence that policymakers and business leaders can use to inform their decisionmaking to create a sustainable and better future.
Michael Stoneking, Partner, Deloitte & Touche LLP
The State of the Future continues as the best introduction--by far--to major global issues and long-term remedies.
This 2009 State of the Future is a gold mine of information, ranging from the social, the number of new infectious diseases in the world, to the technological, early success in the wireless transmission of electricity.
Lester R. Brown, President, Earth Policy Institute, and author of Plan B 3
The State of the Future is an ambitious meeting of research and vision, presenting a grand-scale sweep of today’s world and its difficulties.
The Millennium Project is the world’s preeminent think tank.
Dr. Abdullah Al Kara, Chairman, Knowledge and Human Development Authority, Dubai
Ten of the twelve annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.
This “report card on the future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,700 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2009 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 100-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 6,700 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project's 13 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:
- International assessment of 35 economic elements of the next economic system that could help improve the human condition over the next 20 years;
- 15 Global Challenges Prospects, Strategies, Insights;
- State of the Future Index with and without the world recession;
- Emerging international environmental security issues;
- applications of the Real-Time Delphi technique;
- 750 annotated scenario sets;
- and much more futures intelligence on technology, environment, governance, and the human condition.
It is produced by the Millennium Project with its 32 Nodes (groups of futurists and organizations) around the world, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.
“Although the future has been getting better for most of the world over the past 20 years, the global recession has lowered the State of the Future Index for the next 10 years. The global financial crisis and climate change planning may be helping humanity to re-think its assumptions and move from its often self-centered adolescence to a more globally responsible adulthood, states the report. “This year’s annual State of the Future is an extraordinarily rich distillation of iformation for those who care about the world and its future. It describes in non-technical language what the educated person should kno0 about the world and what to do to improve it'' says co-author and Millennium Project Director. Jerome C. Glenn.
The 2009 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2008–09. The enclosed CD of about 6,700 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.
1. Global Challenges - 11
2. 2009 State of the Future Index - 43
3. Some Eelements of the Next Global Economic System over the 20 Years - 51
4. Real-Time Delphi Studies - 57
5. Tthe Futures Rresearch Methodology - 63
6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues - 69
Millennium Project Participants Demographics
Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures and Boxes
Executive Summary (10 pages)
1. Global Challenges (1,400 pages)
2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (341 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (105 pages)
2.3 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)
3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios-1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism-Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)
4. Governance-related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for International Strategic Coordination (20 pages)
4.2 Some Eelements of the Next Global Economic System over the 20 Years (192 pages)
4.2 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.3 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health Considerations (21 pages)
6. Global Energy Collective Intelligence (20 pages)
7. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)
8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)
9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues (855 pages)
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)—UN Perspectives (31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)
10. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)
11. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking (55 pages)
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Science and Technology
Appendix E: Global Energy Collective Intelligence
Appendix F: Government Future Strategy Units
Appendix G: Some Elements of the Next Global Economic System over the Next 20 Years
Appendix H: Global Ethics
Appendix I: Global Goals for the Year 2050
Appendix J: World Leaders on Global Challenges
Appendix K: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix L: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix M: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix N: Real-Time Delphi Process
Appendix O: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix P: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario Sets
Appendix R: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
Appendix S: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future and The Millennium Project
Appendix T: Publications of The Millennium Project
Figure 1. Comparison of 2009 Baseline and Recession SOFIs
Figure 2. Global trends in freedom
Figure 3. Regional Internet population growth, 2000-2009
Figure 4. Share of people living on less than $1.25 a day (%)
Figure 5. Artist’s conception of a Global Change Situation Room
Figure 6. Women in National Parliaments (percentage)
Figure 7. Corruption Index versus GDP/capita
Figure 8. Global challenges and SOFI process
Figure 9. 2009 State of the Future Index (compared to 2007, zero shifted)
Figure 10. 2009 State of the Future Index (no recession)
Figure 11. Unemployment (%)
Figure 12. 2009 State of the Future Index (recession model)
Figure 13. Comparison of 2009 Baseline and Recession SOFIs
Figure 14. 2009 State of the Future Index with TIA (recession model)
Figure 15. Economic Sysytem Elelments, Region Demographic of Participants
Figure 16. Economic Sysytem Elelments, Sectoral Demographic of Participants
Figure 17. Global Peace Index 2009
Figure 18. MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: temperature increase over the next 100 years
Figure 19. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2009
Figure 20. Demographics of Participants in the 2008–09 program
Figure 21. Demographics of the Participants since 1996
Box 1. What Is New in This Year’s Report
Box 2. Variables included in the SOFI scenarios
Box 3. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed
Table 1. The elements presented in the Elements of the Next Global Economic System over the Next 20 Years study rank-ordered by average of how important the element is for improving the human condition
Table 2. A Simple Taxonomy of Futures Research Methods
- Executive Summary of this year’s research and update on the global situation.
- Both the short and the long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated.
- Use of the State of the Future Index to show the difference of the future in 10 years with and without the world economic recession.
- International assessment of 35 economic elements of the next economic system that could help improve the human condition over the next 20 years.
- Highlights from the use of the Real-Time Delphi studies conducted for other organizations.
- Overview of Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0.
- More than 300 items related to environmental security were identified,
assessed, and organized over the past year. A distilled version is presented
in Chapter 6 and the full text of over 1,500 items identified since 2002
is available in CD Chapter 9.1.
- The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it
also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project research:
- Global Energy Collective Intelligence design.
- Future Strategy Units in selected governments.
- Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along
with an introduction describing their development.
- Three Middle East Peace scenarios based on a three-round Delphi
- Science and Technology scenarios and the two-year supporting study.
- Four Global Energy Scenarios and supporting study.
- An analysis of the statements by world leaders delivered at the
UN Millennium Summit in 2000.
- Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN
military doctrine on environmental issues; potential military environmental
crimes and the International Criminal Court; changing environmental security
military requirements in 2010–25.
- Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development.
- An international review of the concept of creating a “Partnership
for Sustainable Development.”
- Study of factors required for successful implementation of futures
research in decisionmaking.
- An Annotated Scenarios Bibliography of over 750 scenarios or scenario sets.
- The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project research:
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