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Globalization of Information Technology
   How can the globalization and convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]

Energy
   How can growing energy demand be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge 13]

Science and Technology
   How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? [Challenge 14]

6.1 Make Internet access a right of citizenship.
The high-level panel on Information and Communication Technology called on all of the world's population to have access to Internet by the end of 2004. This is an ambitious goal and certainly not an easy task, but it is doable -- H.E. Mr. Mart Laar Prime Minister of the Republic of Estonia.  Costa Rica also offers gives free email accounts to all its citizens.

This is becoming a defacto policy slowly but surely…. There is your cybercitizen!.... The right to education and access to public libraries are current rights of citizenship. Internet access is simply an extension of those rights.... Good action, but in many countries, it is a financial problem. However, society is slowly moving in this direction. It is another culture and it takes time to become a way of life.... Does it mean everyone owns a terminal like the Minitel model in France or does it mean access to public terminals? Our corporation gave Internet access to unemployed in Bristol, UK with just half a day of training. A significant number of them obtained jobs.

Pass a law that access cannot be denied. Providers of Internet services should also have the right to peer point access and transcontinental access across networks.... Capacity will have to keep ahead of demand and alternative means of access should be provided.... China announced that it was slashing the cost of Internet access by 50% and more.

The right of literacy should precede Internet access as a right of citizenship. Internet access presumes educated people. Internet is just one part of the information infrastructure. Let’s get close to 100% literacy first. What happens to the uneducated in an information society?.... Access does not depend upon documentation, it depends on peer group support because things change too fast.

The Connection between rights and laws should be defined…. The UN should be responsible for it.... The US has to provide the leadership by making it a right in their country first.
 

6.2 End national telecommunication monopolies; open markets for more than one provider of information/communications technology so that infrastructure requirements are anticipated and provided at reasonable prices.
If government regulation is good, then this will work. If government regulations are poor, than it could lead to chaos. Acceptance of mobile voice satellite communications will continue to open the telecommunications monopolies in the developing world. Some international organization should provide leadership.... This is a global trend and happening rapidly.... Different companies provide different services (cellular phone companies are different from Internet service providers). However, this deregulation will also increase horizontal mergers among these companies. For example, Internet providers with telephone companies and cellular phone companies with satellite companies.

National telecommunication monopoly is effective until the diffusion of telephone exceeds 10%. After that, the network can spread without subsidy. In the very beginning, subsidies and protections are needed.... We are doing it in Canada.... This is happening now with the evolution of WTO agreements. Because of monopolies, Half of the world does not have telephones. The end of monopolies is inevitable, already sixty-nine countries have signed the WTO agreement to end monopolies.

Some international organizations, such as WTO, should help developing countries to avoid the old pace of industrialization.... In some cases, Internet can bypass government monopoly.  For example, when the government in Belgrade closed down the radio station B92 RealNetworks had it available on its Internet site.

A study of the Industrial Revolution to see how legislation helped or hindered the diffusion of industrialization concluded that it was better not to micromanage the development of specific technologies, but rather to ease the way for enabling broad new categories of interaction between new technologies.
 

6.3 Find incentives for the private sector to provide education and training in information and communications technology and accelerate its transfer to developing countries.
The primary incentive for foreign investment is government acceptance of open competition for private sector information technology companies to sell technology and services.... Net Days [25,000 schools in California were connected to the Internet by 20,000 volunteers in one day], initiated by John Gage of Sun Microelectronics, gives a day to a school to wire it to computers and Internet access.... The private sector is already willing; if governments open the markets, then corporations do not need an incentive to come in.

Training can be imbedded in consumer products and the products can be more user-friendly so that less training is required. Screen phones can get 80% of the Internet by simply touching the screen.  Professional systems will have greater training requirements.  Those companies that do a better job of training support will earn more than those who do not... Many in the private sector are in distance education in areas only found in universities previously.  The private sector could freely distribute CD-ROMs with labels showing government approval as a marketing strategy.... Our corporation helped small companies begin trading on Internet.  Since small companies have little or no investment in conventional distribution channels, they changed their business practices quickly.

There is little private sector in developing counties, thus, government may have to be responsible for it.
 

6.4 Accelerate international development organizations’ efforts in training and applications.
Marking World Telecommunication Day in May 2001, the International Telecommunications Union launched a multimillion-dollar training program aimed at improving Internet and technology skills in developing countries. The ITU plans to establish 50 Internet networking training centers around the world by July 2003. These centers will be based in existing nonprofit institutions and are expected to become "incubators" for small and medium-sized enterprises, according to the ITU. The union plans to use a "train-the-trainers" approach and cooperate with public and private sector partners to spread this technological knowledge.

This is increasing and IDRC is a leader.... UNESCO could support “bare foot” computer teachers for the youth who learn fast…. The World Bank created the concept of the “Knowledge Bank” as kiosks of information accumulated from the various UN agencies linked together. In the past leaders did not want to share knowledge. The World Bank says, “let’s put knowledge in the hands of everyone”.

The international community has already done some work on training for disaster reduction.... UNDP offers free Internet training in Africa.... Developed countries should provide the information technology for developing countries and help with free training, low prices, volunteer services, and technology transfer.
 

6.5 Create low-cost hand-held computers with direct satellite access for low-income regions to access educational software and telephony with elementary literacy as a first priority.
This is a key technology. The target price will be a few hundred dollars per unit. It is a much better decision to put “fiber in the sky” than string copper wires to the rural poor in developing countries where there is difficult terrain. There are six or seven big projects racing to create the satellite networks to support this technology.... Once all this is established, distance will mean nothing.... This will happen more and more with many applications in agriculture and health.... Countries should create their own methods of educating their people, while keeping global communication as a tool.... Virtual reality pioneer, Jaron Lanier, invented and prototyped a new hand-held communications device for the Third World.  It does not require any wires or microwave tower infrastructure, rather it works on a virus-like principle of propagating messages directly between units.  This is a radical departure from existing communications methods.
 

6.6 Governments should provide free Internet access and training to the public at public libraries and schools.
Also provide programs of tele–education, free of charge, for those people would contribute toward eliminating the illiteracy and consequently in their sharing in the use of information technologies.

Corporations will lead this development, but governments have to open the business environment to competition to accelerate the provision of access. The WTO can pressure governments to open the competitive environment. OECD found that countries with open competition for telecommunications have six times more telecommunications access per capita.... Use more access points like Hong Kong does with free local telephone calls from restaurants.... I would prefer easy access to free access. People may not value what is given freely, but this action is rated too highly. Who finances it? Macropolicies would be more effective then this micropolicy.... Less than 8% of the world read and write English and only half of the world has telephones.

Focus on how to get the right information, in the right format, at the right time, to the people, rather than focusing solely on the “information highway.” .... Simple instructional materials using slide shows, booklets, films, audio cassettes, video with local language voice-overs, and other more basic or low-technology alternatives to the Internet are very important. This is a more effective way to address the knowledge gap. Do not waste governments’ funds in low-income countries on extending the information highway; corporations should do it.

Creating and improving the telecommunications infrastructure are more important than free access at local libraries and schools.... With all the talk about the Internet we have overlooked the fact that half of all the new telephones in use around the world are mobile phones.
 

6.7 Regulate the content and use of international networks as little as possible while promoting the use of software that blocks reception via Internet of offensive materials.
The issue is access and putting blocks into software, not regulating content. Also, promote quality.... Correct, Internet is too large to manage.... You can control peoples’ reception of information from servers and you can control peoples’ access to servers, but you cannot control peoples’ communications with each other.... A society has a right to say, “not on my screen”, through democratic processes rather than executive orders of an authoritarian regime.  Just as there should be proper driving ethics on roads, so too there should be proper information interchange ethics on the global information highway (Cyberethics).

Many software companies and citizen groups have already offered software to block offensive materials.... This software is desirable, practical, and available.... Even if the pornography issue is solved, some cultures will resist open access to the Internet to prevent their people’s being influenced by other cultures and English dominance.... This issue should be addressed with civic education and family conversations. Families could “surf the Net” together - “family surfing”.... Cultures have to respect each other’s preferences.

This could be a case for a new form of liability as a deterrence.... Some regulations have been done. The UN should lead.... People want the security of a market place with reasonable rules and as much self-governance as possible.... Adopt a global rather than an international posture.... Everything from police to airports is being privatized, so, too, should be the key elements of the Internet.... The question is whose hands? It should be self-regulation, not government. It is a new form of community. It can be controlled: you can bomb an offender with viruses, using force in the way that governments are traditionally empowered to do. It is no longer subject to national law, but will the US accept that?
 

6.8 Strengthen intellectual property rights and suitable enforcement mechanisms to encourage development of information technology products that can be marketed in developing countries.
The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) has addressed intellectual property rights in print, video, and film, and they are examining electronic copyrights.... This requires new concepts about information - a day-old newspaper is not worth much, but how much would you pay for a month-old medical journal that had information you needed? There are different views of information ownership and rights in different cultures.... What is fair use? What can you copy for educational use? The effort to copy thousands of electronic books is different from the effort to copy thousands of printed books.  There is virtually no limit to copying on the Internet, but there are physical limits in other media.... We need to develop suitable copyright enforcement mechanisms, maybe by sending in electronic investigators... Call for equal leadership with the private sector on this issue.

Not possible and contradicts Action 6.6.... This is the most sensitive subject in the information technology world today and it is extremely difficult to enforce. There are no solutions in sight.... Since materials have to be copied at some stage and “watermarks” can be removed, it is not possible to protect intellectual property rights.  Instead we need new models for making money. Publishers need to change.... The current idea of Intellectual Property is based on a value from the Industrial age. Good ideas should be shared with many people. Look at the free-software or shareware phenomena. For me, it is important to have honor, not money.

Some cultures do not recognize this as a problem. It is a form of cultural blindness.... Informed officials estimate that 96% of software used in China is pirated. One reason given is that the Chinese people have little tradition for intellectual property rights, but the concept is slowly gaining ground.  In early April the State Council, or Chinese Cabinet, reissued a ban on government use of pirated software.

If I developed an excellent idea, I would like people to remember that the developer is me, but I would not charge.... There is a difference between those who do this for a living and those who do it for a hobby.... We should protect the rights of inventors and give certain priority to developing countries.... LDC countries should also create their own copyright systems.... The idea of information rights should be developed instead of proprietary rights. The concept of information rights should include universal benefits for humanity.... The UN should lead.
 

6.9 Corporations, in cooperation with governments, should promote policies that anticipate and expand network capabilities that tend to help avoid communications overload.
If more than one company can sell data lines and switches in a country then the capacity problem will be solved by the private sector.... Bill Gates asserts that capacity will grow faster than demand so that Internet traffic jams will be short-term phenomena.... This is a purely commercial decision.... Direct satellite access, cable television, and new optical fiber systems will address this.... I would prefer that governments do this.
 

6.10 Study and understand the virtues and consequences of the “extended enterprise” and the possible emergence of cartels of companies linked (by extranets) into closed-trading, on-line cooperatives.
About a third of all international trade is within multinational companies.... As Intranets spread and continue to be linked to each other, there probably will not be an Internet in the future.  Instead there will be a set of documented services via Intranets.  The action is in the “Club model.” Everyone will need a universal identity card, which gives access to all the services you have bought.... “Extended Enterprise,” as defined by the “Next Generation Manufacturing Project” is the seamless integration of a group of companies and suppliers (industrial, educational, investment, and governmental) that collaborate to create and support a timely and cost-effective service or product; hence, it does have virtues too.... The development of company networks is a good thing, but you want to avoid another form of corporate monopoly.... For secret businesses, some important institutions and advanced technology, the use of an Intranet is necessary.

Who pays for the electronic commerce on the Internet? Infrastructure? If the world trades on the net, and let’s say we have a lot of “supranets” - then we might go back ultimately to - trade that is not free - restricted to supranets. Like “Supranet Trading Blocs” Could end up having trade barriers due to development of supranet.
 

6.11 Promote international electronic commerce through organizations such as UN, WTO, and the World Bank.
Electronic commerce is the key to success in the foreseeable future. It can be promoted by the World Bank, but its growth will be driven by virtual or cyber shops that the general public can use to order personal items such as wine and airplane tickets. Consumers find better and more detailed information on products via shops on Internet than they do in regular shops. Because exchange rates fluctuate and cultures relate differently to money, we need harmonization of international standards for electronic commerce.

The ITU, OECD, European Commission, and others are very active in this.... There is a model code, the UN Commission on International Trade Law. Also, there is UNCTAD.

Good, but unlikely because these systems do not look at the business system as a whole.... It is functioning gradually and should be adapted to the conditions of different countries. One of the most important aspects, especially in the developing countries, is the contradiction between labor and high technology.
 

6.12 Promote tele-citizens: people from poorer nations who live and work in richer nations who help develop their original countries via volunteer telecommuting.
It is very significant and the original country should be aware of the importance of using these resources.... It should be encouraged.... The idea is good and feasible. The work was begun in some places. The UN should lead.... Good idea, but only a small percentage of the professionals overseas would volunteer.

What are the responsibilities of a tele-citizen?.... More and more people are seeing themselves as international people.  Many great innovations have been created by people who view themselves in this way.... The private sector and individuals should also lead and support this.

Reverse tele-citizens exist in India and China who work for software companies at a tenth of the cost of their western counterparts.  Many more could be employed, but employers do not want to be seen as exporting jobs. This is an unrecognized form of protectionism. India creates more computer scientists each year than the US. The western software industry will be displaced by 2010.... Avoid creating an electronic Victorian British Empire.... Countries themselves have to develop their own ways.
 

6.13 Create an ongoing forum to freely explore the potentials of emerging world cyberspace.
This forum could also use leadership to make recommendations about other actions to address this issue.... This forum would perhaps make thinking about the future more respectable, but this would really only be a marketing device.  It must be fully interactive via the Internet.

There are many already doing this, such as UNESCO, ITU, UNIDO, WTO, OECD, the International Chamber of Commerce, but others can contribute.... If one is to lead, then it should be an NGO, with all others involved in a “global teach-in”.... Add the private sector.

The Millennium Project, World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation, and the Club of Rome are that now. Internet is its own forum and democratic pluralism will flourish in this environment.... Many are exploring that now, there is no need for more.... It’s called Internet!
 

6.14 Governments, with assistance from NGOs and corporations, should recognize potential impacts and advantages of information technologies on employment and institute large-scale and entrepreneurial training for emergent or growing economic activities.
It is really important for everyone including, governments, organizations, and individuals, to recognize that the information society is very different from the industrial society. The assumptions made by each about life are different. If countries do not understand the new assumptions they will lose out. For instance, local government will become much more important; small and microenterprises will be different, perhaps just a consortium of friends, but operating globally. Size is not important.  Consultancies could have a limit of 35 people before they split up into smaller units again.... Although some corporations have laid off workers, overall employment in this sector is increasing.... The amount and quality of employment is a function of knowledge and attitude per capita, not increasing information technology per capita.
 

6.15 Corporations should develop computers and software adapted for Third World and non-Western cultures.
This is the mission of the UNU International Institute for Software Technology (IIST).... Governments could be advised by NGOs on how to implement this action.... What adaptation is really needed?.... Local adaptation and software authoring are being done and will continue rapidly.... Third World governments should take some leadership to create incentives for their own local software entrepreneurs to create their own culturally and linguistically oriented software.... Do not make new local software because it would cripple development. Non-Western cultures can adapt the software better to their needs than others can write new software for special local circumstances.
 

6.16 Governments should change medical and education laws to accommodate on-line consultation as legitimate and covered by insurance.
Do not limit this just to “consult” also, allow for access to data to help diagnose oneself, find treatments, and keep one’s own health records.... A growing number of policymakers, health care providers, and consumers believe information resources offer great hope for addressing concerns about cost, quality, and access to health care. Judiciously collected and effectively communicated, information can help professionals provide better care, turn patients into more enlightened consumers of health services, and ultimately enable individuals and communities to address some of the root causes of illness before professional intervention is required.... This is only a US problem. The many forms of telemedicine and tele-health are the way of the future.... NGOs should be in charge of these changes.
 

6.17 Support efforts to create software for compact multi-language translator; increasing mutual understanding among citizens around the world.
Portable gadgets that can translate language as fast as you can speak are almost ready to emerge from the lab. Prototypes of wearable computers exist now that can translate simple spoken conversation as it occurs.

U.S. soldiers and Marines are field testing separate versions on missions in the Balkans and South Korea.  No one expects these machines to perform nearly as well as a human translator, but they might be good enough to help a monolingual soldier carry on a simple conversation. Meanwhile, ViA, the maker of the device the Marines will test, plans to release commercial versions for $5,000 to $10,000 this fall, says Vice President Robert Palmquist. ViA (not to be confused with the Taiwanese chipmaker) has talked to airlines, hotel chains, and manufacturers that want better ways to communicate with customers and employees.

Military officials have been impressed with the performance of ViA's as yet unnamed prototype in the lab, says Joel Davis of the Office of Naval Research in Arlington, Va.
"Expectations are very important. If you are discussing the role of Wittgenstein in 20th century philosophy, this thing isn't going to help you out a lot," Davis says. "What it seems to do really well is carry on a conversation [of] questions and simple declarative sentences." The Army device, called Diplomat, has also fared well in preliminary tests, says Jaime Carbonell, director of Carnegie Mellon University's Language Technologies     Institute, which helped create Diplomat. Highly customized translation software has begun to rival humans for relatively easy tasks such as translating manuals, Carbonell says.

Translation programs can race through documents at 5,000 words a minute while people plod through 500 words an hour-at a cost of about 40 cents a word. It is cheaper in the long run to use software, Carbonell argues, and let humans clean up the mistakes.

Even the best software is incapable of actually understanding context and meaning, but clever algorithms can increase the chances that a translation will be accurate.

UNU is funding this now.... Several Japanese companies are working on this.... We have started working on it now and hope for support from the Japanese Ministry of Education.... This is especially good for a bilingual country like Canada.... Maybe more likely than machine language translation is a simplified global English.... It will come on its own so, no need to support it.... It is necessary, but the developed countries should provide more support to the developing countries.... Governments should give support.... The UN, governments, and NGOs should lead.
 

6.18 Initiate a global computer recycling upgrade program to get the price down to $100 per unit containing basic education software commercially sponsored.
The top 100 global companies are believed to have a stockpile of over seven million used computers, while the top 1,000 companies' PC stockpile numbers around 30 million. Overall, it is estimated that approximately 600 million used computers will be decommissioned in the next five years. A new World Bank initiative known as the Digital Partnership will help connect these companies with local PC refurbishing programs in the developing world. These programs will renovate and upgrade the used PCs so that they may be redistributed to local educational and social service organizations.

This is ok for young people and schools, but not for professionals. Professionals need software compatibility with current equipment. Since the PC capacity is increasing so fast and price is falling so fast, price savings will be too small to justify associated problems on international incompatibility for professionals.  We never recycled calculators to the developing world because the next generation was better and cost less… WebTV in the US is now within the $300 range.... Good, this will help the world have a common way of thinking.

It is cheaper to supply new equipment for public access. Training will be the major cost. For public access only a browser is needed. This is unworkable and the technology industry itself is constantly driving down the price. The marketplace will take us there.
 

ADDITIONAL ACTIONS
Develop content-related standards, graphics, and objectives for Internet.  This will make  it less confusing for users....The idea of cyber city needs to be approached by the UN. We ought to shape our environment by using new architectural electronic environments to bring people together.... The answers may be found in technology that is yet to be fielded. Promote competition.... Give people alternatives.... and the people will collectively regulate the providers.... Maintain the emphasis on the broad goals such as increasing understanding, improving literacy, and providing open forums.   However, decrease the emphasis on regulatory aspects because they are probably not achievable, except in the most extreme cases....  Model successful projects and make the information available.... Millennium Project might become an advance point for a huge social and economic learning utilizing UN information and virtual world in cyberspace.
Foster international cooperation to ensure that IT is not monopolized.  Support efforts such as the “Open Source” movement of the software development community and encourage policies to nurture them into global efforts. While antitrust efforts in the IT arena are predominantly a US activity now, the issue, because of its long-term implications, should be given international attention and support. In view of the speed and the evolutionary nature of changes taking place, intervention or regulation by government may not be the most appropriate response. Rather, encouraging and ensuring the survival of grass root efforts that could counter-balance the power of corporate giants, would help maintain a strong, healthy, evolutionary ecology for the IT industry.

Efforts such as those of the Free Software Foundation (see http://www.gnu.org/) or the “Open Source” movement (see http://www.opensource.org ) from the software development community should be promoted. While these efforts have lately been gaining momentum, media attention and mainstream commercial support, they need to be nurtured and possibly even protected before they could become global endeavors. They provide frameworks that promise evolutionary environments for non-discriminatory sharing and distribution of software. These are good examples of the type of efforts that have the vision and mission to truly enable information technology to work for everyone and bridge the gap between the have’s and have-not’s, and should, therefore, be encouraged and be given the opportunity to thrive.

Develop a new kind of educational system using this technology to augment other systems. Students should not give up using an encyclopedia, but complement its use by Internet.... Such innovation may be stimulated by increasing competition among Japanese businesses due to the falling number of students.... Take technology of network forecasts of progress into consideration when planning.... Specify the ends to be achieved by the actions.

Net Aid, a joint venture of the UNDP and Cisco Systems (a company that manufactures much of the hardware behind the Internet) is a Web site devoted to the UN agenda that will be launched on 8 September. On 9 October Net Aid sponsors a three-city rock concert that will be broadcast live on TV and on the Internet from Giants Stadium in New York, Wembley Stadium in London and the Palace of Nations in Geneva. The plan is to match potential donors with projects in categories including "Helping Refugees," "Relieving Debt," "Cleaning the Environment" and “Securing Human Rights." Visitors to the Web site will also find "chat rooms" to share ideas, streaming videos, information about other poverty projects, and an online foundation where they can contribute money or services, and links to dozens of UN agencies and more than 40 nongovernmental organizations. By using more than 1,800 computer servers, the site will be able to handle about 60 million hits an hour.

Greenstar, a not-for-profit company making positive changes in remote areas of the world, has brought solar capability to the Middle East West Bank village of Al-Kaabneh. <http://www.globalmeditations.com/greenstar.htm> It will provide the community, its adults, children in school, and its clinic with a connection to the world. The village has its own homepage on the Web and soon many of the people will have individual email accounts, so they can communicate with people around the world who appreciate their music and artwork. The next steps are to install basic solar power systems and Internet connectivity in villages in Jamaica, Tanzania and Egypt.

Although cyber technologies may well bring peace and plenty, threats of information warfare, cyber terrorism, financial market vulnerability, fraud, loss of cultural diversity, and knowledge gaps, and have to be addressed.

International organizations like the WTO, ITU, and EU should help coach governments as to their role in promoting global harmonization of communications rules and standards.... Understand how to prevent “information warfare” with closed hierarchical networks beyond popular control.
 

• Brief overview
• Indicators
• Regional views
• Detailed discussion on this challenge in the 2001 State of the Future

-- Suggested Actions --

13.1 Governments and international organizations should increase funding for the development of alternate sources for the generation of electricity base loading.
This is the most objective action. Others seem to have more subjectivity attached. Alternatives to nuclear power are not too promising. Fossil power plants are cheap and quick, but contribute to global warming. Fusion always seems to be 10 to 40 years in the future. Fusion, incidentally, presents more difficult proliferation problems than fission reactors because of the possibilities for producing plutonium. Solar? That won’t save us. Ground-solar can contribute to the energy supply and should, but solar power satellites in earth’s orbit can be a long-term alternative to nuclear energy. Both nuclear and solar satellites provide electricity without greenhouse gas effects. Owing to lump-sum investment, nuclear power is not suitable for developing countries. Coal and oil will still be the main energy source for China for a long time. Hydropower and wind energy can contribute and are free of pollution. Hydrogen can substitute for gasoline in transportation.

An effective and coordinated energy R&D program should be pursued, not only to provide alternative sources of energy and energy storage, but also to extend the duration of non-renewable energy resources. This program should be initiated even if the prices of current energy sources remain low.  Some believe the UN should provide the leadership for new sources, but its member governments are not necessarily good at identifying winners and losers in the private sector to create the solutions.  In the meantime energy audit procedures are needed.

For lower-cost solar cells (earth-based or solar-based) new engineering research is needed to try to bridge the gap between engineering reality and the rosy assumptions of O’Neill, Criswell and the second report to the Club of Rome. The latest advances in intelligent systems and robotics, as well as solar manufacturing, need to be brought to bear, in order to develop empirical earth-based test beds to assess what level of cost reduction is really possible with quasi-closed-cycle production strategies. The private sector, with government support, should greatly increase research and development to quadruple energy productivity within 30 to 50 years, i.e., the output in energy services per primary energy input.
 

13.2 Create a “World Energy Organization” for the coordination of energy research and assistance in implementing policies.
Make it a public/private organization, as corporations would like to contribute to this focused effort to solve the world energy problem.... It might create research centers as needed and prevent parallel expenditures. With proper goals and duties, and nations as members under UN auspices, it will be more successful. UNESCO has started a program, but it does not have enough authority.

This organization should continuously promote and disseminate updated information on technology that produces energy from alternative sources.... The leading nations should be brought together by the UN to invest in development of renewable energy sources; otherwise their voters will choose selfish solutions. Education, in particular, should be used to appeal to young idealistic groups.
 

13.3 With government and private sector leadership, an international program should be established to build a trust fund to finance the dismantling of dangerous plants (Chernobyl-type).
Nice idea, but not likely to be funded until some major accidents happen, again.
 

13.4 Implement a full-cost accounting for external and environmental impacts in energy pricing.
It is so obvious that this should be done, but no one can do it until the scientists come to agreement about definitions, measurements, and impacts. First the scientific research to answer these issues should be organized, and then the implementation of the solutions should be discussed incrementally. This will produce useful debate about who should pay the full costs, and achieve a better balance of energy sources. However, it requires a counter lobby to the conventional energy sources. There are also difficulties in matching pricing with environmental costs regionally. Global summits on energy can help create a consensus about energy prices.

It will be different for countries like China.... Developing countries may need external assistance in pricing and the changes should be gradual to prevent destabilizing social impacts.

Absolutely right - but how do you do it? Trying to calculate ‘external costs’ in general involves a lot of guesswork. Energy is just one part. Carbon seems easy to tax, but nobody can make it work. Discounting future benefits is very debatable - future conditions can be changed out of all recognition by small changes in the discount rates. This is a political issue. The states and power companies are arrogant and less than candid.
 

13.5 Government, in partnership with the private sector, should include the cost of dismantling and storage of radioactive materials in pricing electricity.
Fine idea and will have an effect, but the idea should be applied to other sources, too. Fossil fuels also have hidden costs that should be added to their overall economic analysis; hidden costs include health risks and global warming. The NRC in the US requires that nuclear power plants put aside funds in order to cover the costs of decommissioning the plants. The problem is that these funds are often initially small and are expected to earn sufficient interest to cover the costs. When it is time for the plant to be decommissioned, this may not be the case if the plant must be closed prematurely or an accident occurs which causes the costs to be much higher. Another method used by some power companies is to include the cost for the decommissioning in consumers’ utility bills.
 

13.6 Government should support research for a breakthrough that would make use of the radioactive materials that are available at decommissioning.
This and the plasma torch are the most important ones that concern the disposal of radioactive materials. Since this is such a major global threat, it needs a globally organized response supported by all nations and NGOs.... Some have no confidence that a breakthrough will come in time, while others do not think it will require a breakthrough. The physics and technology to do it are quite well understood. US DOE and TVA are presently negotiating a possible trial at one of TVA’s commercial reactors. However, this is highly controversial, as it would reverse US philosophy about the separation of civilian and military nuclear technologies that has been a cornerstone for many years of policies to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

We need a period of reflection and research on the global situation and options for disposing of weapons-grade nuclear material…. Nuclear Agencies, NGOs, and interest groups should be the major players for non-proliferation. Budgets for any future nuclear plants should include funds for waste disposal.
 

13.7 Governments and corporations should encourage the development of plasma torch and other technologies for the transmutation or destruction of dangerous radioactive materials.
There are mixed views on the prospects for this, but it is a direction for research…. National policies for nuclear waste disposal are still unclear. The United States, Finland, and Sweden have plans to begin placing waste in geological repositories early in this century while other countries, such as Germany, Japan, Switzerland, China, and the United Kingdom, are considering mid-century dates.  The Netherlands does not plan to implement geological disposal for at least 100 years and Canada has not made a decision.  Likewise, France passed a law specifying that no decision be made before 2006.  Russia has identified candidate sites for deep repositories but no timetable has been set for their construction and use.  Many countries with small nuclear programs do not yet have plans for long-term disposition of their high-level waste.  No country plans to permanently seal a geological repository in less than 50 years.

Spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste have been kept at storage facilities on the surface or just underneath it since the nuclear age began more than 50 years ago.  But the amount of waste, particularly spent fuel, is exceeding the current capacity of existing facilities in many countries, and some storage sites have not performed up to acceptable standards, according to a National Research Council of the US National Academy of Science report.

Most current surface-storage facilities are intended to hold waste for 50 to 100 years.  If resources were dedicated to their upkeep and expansion, however, they could be a feasible waste-management option for even longer.  In addition, because these facilities are designed for easy retrieval of waste, they leave the door open for future options for treatment and disposal.
 

13.8 Governments should support private-sector development of robots that will avoid part of the risks to humans in the process of decommissioning nuclear plants.
This is more practical and a better policy than previous two suggested actions to solve the nuclear waste problem. Why not compress nuclear waste into a glass-like ball, encased in insolation, and shot to the Sun via a linear induction “mass driver” vertically mounted in the earth?
 

13.9 Offer large monetary incentives for breakthroughs in commercially competitive alternative energy supply systems.
The free market provides the prize! No ‘government’ prize could be large enough - $10 billion?.... Give a prize for solving the nuclear waste problem. This has not been handled well.... Competitiveness should be considered in the context of total cost. Breakthroughs in conservation of energy should also be included.
 

13.10 Initiate ecological and energy taxes to create disincentives for inappropriate energy use and tax incentives for less polluting alternative energy sources. (See Challenge 1 on Sustainable Development for more detailed discussion)
Before this can be implemented, an international science panel would have to define “appropriate” and how to measure it.... All stages of the process involved should be considered: extraction, production, distribution, and consumption. A tax for the extraction and the use of fossil fuels should be included, and all trade tariffs and taxes on alternative energy-related goods should be eliminated to encourage their international distribution and use. It makes no sense to tax renewable approaches, but it is marginal in practice. On the other hand, subsidies on coal (as in Germany), which are important distortions, should be removed. This should be implemented in such a way as to encourage integrated utilization of energy.... Some argue that taxes and incentives are not very applicable. Others suggest speeding the permission process to construct energy efficient houses.
 

13.11 Implement relevant sections of Agenda 21 for alternative energy production
China considers this very important and has just published its “China Agenda 21 Plans” that have been formulated by sectors and provinces.... People are happy with theory but do not support the practice when it costs them.... Obsolete technology should not be dumped on developing countries.
 

13.12 Continue to encourage international cooperation in peaceful space projects, particularly solar power satellites and other space-based technologies necessary for long-term sustainability.
Space-based solar has the potential to outperform nuclear on base load power (especially when delivery to less developed areas is desired), while earth-based can be competitive for peaking power.... Solar Power Satellites could become economical either by cheap transport reducing the cost of earth-launched satellites or the technology to build them in orbit or on the moon. These are based on much technology that does not yet exist, although some of the enabling technologies are being developing in Japan and the U.S.
 

13.13 Consider policies that permit oil production to continue to rise while prices remain low; these policies will provide time for alternative energy R&D and economic development in the poorer regions of the world.
It should be noted that a large amount of oil is stored in many developed countries for future use, which makes the shortage of the resources in developing countries more serious. Time frame should allow for smooth transition to alternate energy technology. Energy R&D is initiated only when prices get high enough to justify alternative sources.
 

13.14 Substantially increase funding for solar energy research (e.g. by a factor of 50) initiated by private and state energy producers, governments, academic and scientific applied research institutions.
Not necessarily by 50, but it certainly should increase while decreasing subsidies for more environmentally dangerous sources. Energy production and distribution should be decentralized as much as possible. It should start with a UN General Assembly resolution to involve country contributions to an international agency, possibly the proposed World Energy Agency, or maybe UNEP or IEA…. The problem should be addressed by global intellectual and financial efforts to develop new sources of energy that can replace the traditional ones. It should include Solar Power Satellites as well as ground solar sources of energy. Getting cost-effective solar energy recognized by the market will be the best way to attract further research funds.
 

ADDITIONAL ACTIONS
Energy conservation and efficiency should be added to the list of action along the lines of the “negawatt” (negative growth in usage) revolution of Amory Lovins from Rocky Mountain Institute.  The proposed World Energy Organization should use the principles of sustainable development from a global systems perspective as a policy criterion.

The energy solution also must be based on system thinking for social change. All problems with the global challenges are connected to the present systems of economy and power structure of society; and hence, the solutions are connected with changes of these systems.

The $750 billion of government subsidies for wasteful and polluting fossil fuel technologies should be reduced. An Environmental Security Council as a parallel organization to the UN Security Council should be established, and the development of nuclear power plants, especially in developing countries should be constrained.

To create much more efficient cars with fuel cells, batteries, light weight materials, etc, we need far more competition within the private sectors of the US, Japan, and Germany, not big government programs.  Currently the US government supports the big three car manufacturers to create a standard family car that is three times as energy efficient as those in 1993 via the “Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles” (PNGV), which is supposed to produce the first prototypes in 2004. The leading candidate is a hybrid-electric car (a car that runs on an electric battery and a small power plant such as a diesel, gasoline, or fuel cell). The long-term success of this critical transition depends heavily on the amount of competition and the mobilization of advanced technology.  Create a new venture to coordinate a number of existing ventures.

Energy R&D programs should be better-coordinated and focused on lowering carbon emissions, lowering costs, and increasing efficiencies. Nuclear energy cannot have a role due to the increased costs related to safety and waste disposal. We should concentrate on geothermal, wind, solar, biomass, and hydroelectric sources all of which have developed in the last 10 to 15 years. The issues of aging Russian nuclear submarines should be included in the nuclear waste studies.

Governments should cooperate with IAEA and the UN to track down radioactive materials that are increasingly sold for scrap, traded illegally or dumped in the open. There were 2,300 reports of radioactive materials found in US scrap yards in 1997. Once a radioactive material is licensed to a company in the US, it is no longer tracked. According to IAEA, nobody keeps track of all these materials.  Records of the former USSR have lost data on the location of radioactive materials. The Ukraine has 100,000 unaccounted for radioactive sources. The UN Economic Commission for Europe held the first conference on radioactive scrap in Prague in 1999.

• Brief overview
• Indicators
• Regional views
• Detailed discussion on this challenge in the 2001 State of the Future

-- Suggested Actions --

14.1 Support basic research, which provides the growing pool of knowledge from which applied science draws its insight.
There is no global strategy for basic scientific research.  ICSU can help to develop a global strategy, but the nation-states make the decisions because they are the only entities with the money to set science policy. An Internet web site such as CERN, ICSU, UNU, or NSF could be used to collect all the good arguments for basic research and create a new rationale for basic research. It is not only important for the “growing pool of knowledge”, but also for the pool of people with skills and knowledge for the wider society. Regional policy attempts like the EU were imposed from the top and did not work well. Linking labs into collaboratories as labs “without walls” is helping to improve science. Diversitas could build a global strategy for biodiversity. Attention should also be given to fields that might not be efficient today, but could still produce breakthroughs. If joint research projects in basic science were performed by many researchers from different countries and financed internationally, the development gap in science could be narrowed.

Whenever possible, international and bilateral support should go directly to scientists rather than through national Ministries of Science. If basic research is stopped, sooner or later all other research will stop.  Information from basic research should be accessible to all, except in cases that have immediate technological applications. In addition, richer countries can put more into basic research, while poorer countries have to focus on applied research. Japan is an example of a country that is now moving more into basic research as its income rises. Corporations should be involved more and more, and it is in their interest to do so. The issue about the military technology serving the civil should be taken into consideration.

The main principles of international specialization for research should be developed possibly through an international convention for the regulation of basic principles of collaboration, which should include principles for international support of unique research centers.

Since basic research has become international, it should be financed internationally.  National contributions should be proportional to GDP and should not depend on the research location. The first principle of international collaboration should be that this knowledge should be open and belong to the world society. It is the first principle of international collaboration.. A second principle should be the selection of unique plants and/or equipment to prevent unnecessary redundancy, such as particle accelerators and space stations. These plants should be supported not only by the governments, but also by corporations and patrons of the arts and sciences.... More attention should be paid to applied fundamental study in methodology
 

14.2 To the extent possible, anticipate and assess the consequences of breakthroughs, such as life extension, and the significant control of genetics and biochemical processes of life.
If low-cost methods to determine the sex of a child were available in China and India, with 40 percent of the world’s population and where male children seem to be preferred, the demographics of humanity would be drastically altered.

It would be good to create a global legal assessment system using all the powerful new communications features of the Internet. Scientists should inform the process, but politicians should make the decisions.  UNESCO is one logical initiator for such a system. An international code of conduct might be needed.

The debate should take place in advance. The UK is weak on technology assessment; the EU and Netherlands are strong; and the US was, but closed its Office of Technology Assessment.... Long-term consequences have to be identified but will it “break” the breakthrough before it is born? .... “Effective” is a relative term. Let the ideas and creativity be tried, and then do the assessment.

Currently, such methods tend to show consequences in some areas, while disregarding others. Negative consequences emerge in unexpected areas. Assessing negative consequences can be contrary to the interests of the corporation. Marketing interests can influence the development of models and the identification of parameters that show only positive consequences, ignoring dangerous impacts on society. Some argue that it is almost impossible to forecast technology and its impact correctly. Since history is full of stupid ideas about what science will produce and how it will affect society, should not scientists be free to study almost anything?  One can assess technology, but not breakthroughs, which almost by definition cannot be predicted.

Cloning is one example with has several applications - some good and some threatening. The Hitler application has to be avoided, of course. But if people want to use the technique as another means for reproduction and add it to the set of techniques that include frozen sperm and ova, in vitro fertilization, and surrogate motherhood, then why not? Some argue that human cloning should be forbidden, because it interferes with the divine order of life. Aren’t these irreconcilable differences? There may be 250,000 frozen human embryos in fertility clinics in the US that could be used for embryonic stem cells in regenerative medicine. If the frozen embryos are not used in research, these “left over” embryos will be simply thrown out. The social impact of embryonic stem cell research is much different depending on one’s metaphysical and ethical views.
 

14.3 Encourage global collaboratories for interdisciplinary and transcultural research.
This is the most important way to advance science.  Such collaboratories could evolve regional scientific strategies. This is necessary for the issue of the earth’s environment, which needs the cooperation of the world and centralization of this work by UN and government organizations. International collaboration should be organized because it is difficult to get funding for interdisciplinary research. International exchange and cooperation via international network of institutes should be promoted. On the other hand, global bandwidth needs to be increased. There is need for a global NGO that pressures ITU and governments for science support like increased bandwidth. Such an organization could begin with specialty NGOs and could build global associations.

Nevertheless, research often wanders and is necessarily unfocused, over-managed projects can be less productive. For example, individuals in their own labs once did particle physics; now it involves big machines and armies of people. This kind of program makes accountants happy - they can keep track of expenditures and schedules and the like - but we have to keep small groups alive. There are good managers and good innovators but it is rare to find such traits in the same individual. With restrictions on patenting; is it feasible?  Changes in the patenting system are necessary. The movement of people and consensus should solve this.  Information is a market. Science is not institutionally based but individually based. We have seen institutions collapse with the exit of individuals.

[Editor’s note: Collaboratories allow for the full exchange and interactivity as if one were in a common lab while actually being in different places, as opposed to simply email exchanges]
 

14.4 Encourage the development of new theoretical principles in science that might lead to great improvements in energy, water availability, engines, geophysical devices, materials processing, medical devices, and information, communication, decision, and organization systems.
The peers should decide the global significance because in basic research the global significance will be realized much later.... It is a necessity not a luxury to provide long-term support systems like the monasteries in which people can be free from all material worries.  The other necessity is to identify scientists with the greatest potential - worldwide.

One of the big issues is international diffusion of new discoveries and technology. There is an economic driver to diffusion. This is an area where we have to encourage openness of markets to promote diffusion, unlike the closed market that inhibited innovation in the old Soviet Union. Although scientific insight comes to an individual, science today is done in groups using large systems of technology. Old types of large science conferences are not as useful as collaboratories.

International coordination for basic research will have considerable effect on efficient usage of resources. We need a climate to encourage people to enter science. Scholarships should be provided, innovation should be encouraged, barriers to achievement should be removed, and the doors to all of these opportunities should be open to everyone to participate. Some cultures tend to stop women entering science. However, the field should be kept competitive - competition stimulates wonderful performance - and rewards individuals who do well.

We have to differentiate between R&D for the pursuit of new theoretical principles and for incremental progress. Business’s marginal costs are rising, and the only way to cut through this is with R&D. We have to develop new tools as well as new principles. This has to be done in the “fringe” or interdisciplinary areas, and research in the fundamentals related to renewable energy and availability of fresh water should be favored since these are the main challenges in this century.
 

14.5 Create software that prompts the user to see potential synergies of their work with research in other fields that they might not have otherwise considered.
Pattern analysis of such synergies would help discover what we don’t know. Then, second generation analysis should be used to create pattern of new synergies. Ministries for Science & Technology should do this.

Kohonen in Finland has developed such a document-mapping scheme, and requested to try it out on patent databases. Legal problems may be the main barrier at present. Another barrier to the development of such associative systems is the large government funding to support the area, in the following sense: much of the government funding allocated to areas like digital libraries, as such, tends to strengthen existing tendencies to develop relatively conventional software, without even exploiting the present state of the art in intelligent systems, let alone extending it.

Although different than action 14.5, one simpler approach is the use new forms of smart group software for global discussions that notifies you when new items of interest are entered in global discussions.
 

14.6 Create common data protocols for unconventional science for an international registry of new and unconventional ideas with national copyright protections. Connect this registry with a clearinghouse that reports success, failure, and inconclusive research.
A classification system is needed to distinguish between the conventional and unconventional. This could be done on an Internet web site like ICSU. Two systems of protection may be needed: a system of copyright protection and a system of protection of data protocols from the implementation of this knowledge to the detriment of society. This should probably begin with national registries.. The Academy of Sciences should do it.

The phrase “Unconventional science” is misplaced since if the scientific method is applied then it becomes science.  Unconventional ideas might be the focus and unconventional ways of applying the scientific method.

There are two problems in creating common data protocols: the protection of the information from the unconsciousness implementation; and problem of free access to the information, which could be used for commercial purpose. A World Patent Agency or WIPO (The World Intellectual Patent Organization) might be able to keep track of the common data protocols for a data bank of non-patentable and other ideas.

Recent changes in patent law may actually be more a part of the problem than of the solution. For the sake of simplicity and harmonization, many lawyers have tried to ram through new rules such that an inventor loses all patent rights if he publishes any aspect of a new idea before patent is granted- which may be many years after the initial idea. The impact in stifling scientific exchange and creativity - particularly in the US, where they have historically been most vibrant - may be far more serious than people realize.
 

14.7 Accelerate and improve coordination of research aimed at lowering the cost of transportation to earth orbit.
This is the most important item on the list to increase space development programs. The private sector should take the leadership with some support from governments. This is the number one priority for the past 30 years, but the political decisions have not matched this goal.  It is seen as infrastructure and not politically exciting technology. We need an exciting spokesman for launch costs research. This is a joint responsibility of government and the private sector. Currently NASA is supporting the X-33 technology program leading to single stage re-usable rocket and the X-34 single stage rocket launched from the wing of an airplane. Next generation re-usable rockets will lower costs to US $2000 per pound, but further reductions will probably level off at $1000 per pound.

Government can help, but the private sector will provide the leadership in lowering costs. The cost is reducing gradually; hence, special actions would be necessary. The reduction of launch costs is inevitable because governments and private companies compete for launch business. In Japan much cost for R&D is covered by the government. For example, the government has to cover 80 billion yen to lower the price of HII rocket from 19 billion Japanese yen to 8.5 billion yen. Arian Rocket of Europe is financially supported by the French government. Hence, at this moment, the government needs to take leadership to lower the cost to compete in the commercial launch market. The potential of the linear induction mass driver or “rail gun” or “spacegun” would drastically reduce costs of launching materials.

The strategy of privatization has worked very well for tuning and deploying existing transportation technologies; however, it is also necessary to develop a portfolio of new, more advanced technologies, in order to really push the long-term cost frontier; such very-long-term very-high-risk efforts will require the involvement of many governmental agencies. For example, recent experiments and US-Russian collaborative efforts have increased the plausibility of new technologies for combining magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) effects with air-breathing propulsion. This offers the possibility of airplane-like transportation to earth orbit at better costs than the most advanced pure rocket technology. Major new interdisciplinary research efforts will be necessary in order to understand and optimize the possibilities, involving plasma physics, MHD engineering, new physical chemistry effects, and new sorts of control system design in order to manage the very high-bandwidth nonstatic coupled subsystems. New advances in brain-like intelligent control will be crucial to the possibility of success in this area. A rational research strategy would maintain a portfolio of statistically independent options, and try to upgrade/optimize all of them.
 

14.8 Facilitate free international access to biotechnology information.
The National Center for Biotechnology at the National Institutes of Health in the US provides this information now. Especially the results of the Human Genome Project should be accessible to all, and retrievable freely.... Celera is making its genomic information freely available.... Viable connections among resources, information, and traditional wisdom should be worked out.
 

14.9 Increase funding for R&D in biotechnology leading to improved food availability as well as enhanced health, improved animals, insect and disease-resistant plants, etc.
The plant genome project might be the next major genetic mapping project used to improve agriculture. Support for biomedical research in richer countries is very good, but not for agricultural research, which tends to be too affected by politics. Agricultural research proposal evaluation should use the peer system used by the US National Institutes of Health, which produces high quality and original research, and has the courage to cut off research that is not going anywhere. It is better to send funds to individuals than to places.

The universities receive the funds and distribute them on whatever basis they decide. This approach needs improvement.

The Human Frontiers Program in Japan seeks to create international research partnerships; it encourages research collaboration across borders.  Many countries do not have peer review. The journal Nature has devoted some attention to describing these processes in various countries.

Government funding agencies should appraise the planning commission especially in developing countries about science’s pivotal role. Private companies, in developing countries should be made aware of the benefits in funding biotechnology R&D.

Think about undirected funding. The Mac Arthur Foundation gives grants simply on the basis of promise and track records.
 

14.10 Increase R&D leading to removal of virulent microbiological agents from the human food chain.
This is increasingly necessary as international trade in production expands. The US Department of Agriculture has the largest knowledge base and has to provide the leadership for this research.
 

14.11 Promote awareness and evaluation of potentially hazardous microbial threats.
See Challenge 8 on diseases for more information in greater detail. Biotechnology will produce the knowledge of molecular epidemiology to produce the solutions.  NIH and CDC can lead with this research in collaboration with WHO.

The Asian avian flu scare is an example. In Hong Kong, the flu virus was detected, but the slaughtered carcasses of chickens were left in the open. The WHO network needs to be continually improved in cooperation with others such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Epidemiology is a global phenomenon.
 

14.12 Offer substantial prizes for the achievement of breakthroughs that have global significance.
The Tech Museum, San Jose, California in part was stimulated by this suggestion to offer five $50,000 prizes for “Technology Benefiting Humanity.  During the first year (2001) there were 335 nominations of candidates from 40 countries in health (93), education (80), environment (53), economic development (54), and equality (55).  Of these nominees, 137 were individuals, 128 non-profit organizations, and 70 businesses.  The winners for the first year will be announced in November 2001.  Nominations for the 2002 awards can be made at http://www.thetech.org/techawards

A Noble Prize for applied research would be useful.  The current Nobel Prizes are awarded very late in one’s career. More contemporary prizes might give incentives to the next generation.  Prizes might also be given for achievements or breakthroughs at global, regional, and national levels. Cooperative behavior and efforts at sharing techniques with colleagues should be considered. These prizes could be connected not only with some achievements but also with the contribution of the scientist to the development of a field of knowledge. Local prizes in developing countries would also be helpful. There is the Kharazmi Prize that has attracted attention in developing countries.

For many the peer recognition is more important than the amount of money. Although prizes may not stimulate science and engineering, they are great devices for bringing science to public attention.... They help to maintain the tempo, but inherent inquisitiveness will enable the person to innovate, not prizes. Others say that prizes have lost their impact. The Japan Prize is more rewarding financially than the Nobel Prize, but few have ever heard of the Japan Prize. Success in business is immediately rewarded with money, but rarely so in science. Prizes are a temporary excitement. We have to find more lasting ways to support basic inquisitiveness and creative minds.
 

14.13 Increase international resources for research and dissemination of findings by subsidizing less industrialized countries.
Connect individual scientists and labs in developing countries and more advanced countries via Internet to design and carry out programs together.... Complete full Internet connections to all countries and expand access within developing countries for more users.... Third World has both a work force and a THINKING FORCE at reasonable prices. It is far better to hire or contract than to subsidize them with foreign aid.  India is an example of this in software development.... We should not neglect the fact that the developing countries have many significant discoveries and preferable resources. UNDP, ESCAP, APCCT and the like provide international training in many areas, but with little meaningful effects. These mechanisms need to be useful for both the donor and the receiver. India and China produce good science, but received few subsidies.  If a culture is not interested in developing its science, foreign assistance will not matter. Why was Arabic culture so bright in science in the past, but today seems to have disappeared from scientific leadership?

The developed countries have the obligations to supply technological transactions and employment training to the developing countries. This is both positive and negative: no industrialized country will give aid without a price.  Some believe that support is getting reduced because of patenting issues. If so, then strengthening the UN’s WIPO systems could be one of the solutions to this problem.
 

14.14 While the International Space Station (IIS) and scientific research are the central focus for government space programs, accelerate the privatization of space applications to avoid public cycles of interest and disinterest in space support.
1996 was the first year that private sector revenues from space activities exceeded general government expenses for space activities. The NASA Space Shuttle is semi-private now. As government budgets reduce, privatization will continue, but Governments still need to lead the Space Station, though it, too, will move toward privatization.17 nations are involved in the construction of IIS. They plan 45 space flights from 4 launch sites that will lift 100 pieces of equipment to assemble the IIS. Currently, Boeing is working on privatizing the Space Station.

Space tourism, driven by lottery systems, (in addition to communications and energy from space) will provide profit incentives for private development of space. How many people around the world would buy a lottery ticket for US $1 to go to space?  A flight would cost $200,000-500,000 per winner.

Governments should take leadership for taking risk in developing new technology. The private sector might not be able to take such a huge risk. As the technology is developed and the cost is reduced, it would be taken over by the private sector. Privatization of space programs is working and should continue. However, it takes time and we should not hurry.... It is not the time yet to privatize the whole program.
 

14.15 Increase education in machine intelligence, cybernetics and human cognitive development, with additional emphasis on human social and emotional development.
Machine intelligence/cybernetics shouldn’t be the top priority. Social and educational development that addresses emotional reactions to new technologies and teaches people how to understand risk management is a higher priority.... Sure, but why single this out among the 2 million other important ideas?.... Add “brain science”.
 

14.16 Integrate “how to learn” including the scientific method into educational systems and professional training programs.
Begin at primary basic education. Future leaders do not get one hour of science in the top schools of management, yet these leaders will make the decisions that determine the future of science. A basic educational unit on science for executives should be created, which also includes the history of science and systems’ approaches.
 

14.17 Creativity workshops for schools, corporations, and governments should teach that the creative process includes failure, chaos, and uncertainty, holding contradictory positions.
Multi-disciplinary and transdisciplinary techniques and non-linear thinking approaches should be used, especially in secondary schools. Quality circles should also be used to create consensus and new thought, and infrastructure should be created for safe trans-institutional communications for sharing ideas.  In addition, corporations should be invited to share the risks of such experimental activities. Maybe the Millennium Project should facilitate this.... Special institutions for designing creativity workshops should be evolved.  Government should create such institutions in collaboration within the regions of a country, between countries within a region, and globally.
 

14.18 Convert the Cold-War space paradigm to a space development paradigm.
Once people realize that energy from space can address the tremendous energy demand over the next 25 to 50 years while reducing environmental impacts, then space development from all of humanity will become the next paradigm. The new paradigm is the peaceful uses of space for the benefit of humanity through commercialization, science, environmental studies, and international law and security. In this paradigm, space development is open to all within common rules. Russia, for instance, has already changed its space paradigm and developed the post Cold War program. However, it does not mean that space should not be involved in providing security.  Space could provide global and national security.

This statement is not applicable to Japanese space development. In Japan, nothing was changed before and after the Cold War. Japanese space policy is not changed because of politicians’ change whereas the US often stops a project even though it is 80% completed. The Japanese respect “continuity”, and hence, the Japanese space program has been stable. In 1991, Japan became the third country to send a spacecraft around the moon. Regardless of “paradigm”, Japan is just continuing to pursue space projects.... The Space Station will help provide continuity.
 

14.19 Encourage the development of satellite systems that will provide virtually instant, ubiquitous communications connectivity between both fixed and mobile users, including telephony, video, data, and multimedia.
This is a profitable industry and capital is sufficiently being attracted so that additional encouragement is not necessary. Private sector is providing the leadership and making great progress, even though some think the government or NGOs should provide some leadership.
 

4.20 Include space exploration and development in the global political agenda: space stations, planetary exploration, and beyond.
Attention to global warming will help put space on the political agenda by drawing attention to the role of monitoring earth from space, the potential of safer energy from space, the fragility of earth, and the need to have life off earth as insurance for the future of humanity. NASA is doing this now.... The creation of an international program for planetary exploration could be the focus for such a global political agenda.

Space industrialization should be seen by all nations as a shared project. Commercial ventures in orbit, on the moon or on Mars should pay a fee to the UN. The UN should develop international law and administer the collection of these fees. It benefits everyone in the world. If the Moon were made a UN Trusteeship, then earthlings would learn how to work together as a species to manage a planetary body. The reverberations for world peace and security from this experience could be enormous.  Human settlements will exist on the moon by 2050. The work should be harmonized with the UN taking leadership.
 

14.21 Accelerate international space development cooperation.
The US still has to lead this cooperation as it has with the space station. Next should be the solar power satellite, and then an international lunar base. These goals will focus and give reason for international cooperation. This is accelerated by internationally inventing a common space program and including international participation in national space strategic planning. In effect, it is taking place, but the biggest problem is that there is a big gap between the developing countries and the developed countries, although India, China, and Brazil are the exception with advanced space technology of their own.

New rules, principals, and guidelines for international cooperation should be developed. When US decided to shrink the project of the Space Station Freedom, other countries were not informed. This attitude increased mistrust within the international space community as well as hurting NASA employees. The US wants international cooperation only when it needs financial assistance.

Many examples of the past space programs (e.g. Hubbell Space Telescope) indicates that the US tended to pursue the project exclusively by itself when it can do it alone, and did not want other countries to participate. American attitudes can be changed so that truly effective international cooperation would be possible. Since politicians can influence or damage international cooperation, they have to be included in the creation of a code of international ethics in space cooperation.

There are two types of international cooperation: equal cooperation and support of sales. The former is possible when the levels of technology are almost the same. The latter is the way to cooperate when the levels of technology are very different. 30 years ago Japan bought much technology from the US. Now, Japan is providing technical support for Asian countries, e.g. remote sensing technology for Thailand’s forest research. At this moment, their technical level is not advanced enough to return something to Japan, but they will gradually improve their level of technology, and true cooperation will be possible some day.
 

14.22 Establish a lunar base that supports economic development in space for such activities as mining, energy and/or industrial production, and tourism.
Many see this as very important, and next to solar power satellites should be the next focus for US leadership in international space cooperation. Minerals on the moon are enough to eradicate poverty on earth. The greatest achievements in exploration and exploitation in history occurred when there were great frontiers. The space frontier is virtually limitless. Unless we exploit the moon - we are asking for extinction.... There is no consensus about whether to make a lunar base or Mars base first or to do a joint Moon-Mars program. In 2003, Japan is going to launch a satellite to explore the moon.

Establishing a lunar base is a good idea because it only takes two days to go to the moon, there are many minerals available, and it is much easier to go to the stationary orbit from the moon compared to going from the earth. That is why Japan decided to focus on lunar development. As the US lost interest in the moon, Japan should/can take leadership to explore the moon. The cumulative experiences on the moon would be helpful when we go to the further planets. The Japanese government already approved this policy, and it welcomes others country’s participation.

The Japanese policy development mechanism is very different from the US’s. In the US, a large goal is developed and then efforts are made to achieve the goal. In Japan, many small steps are taken initially, and then the policy itself is gradually developed. Therefore, Japan is interested in Moon exploration, but the issue of lunar base has not yet developed as a concrete policy. To establish the lunar base, we need to overcome many technical difficulties. The technology will slowly develop to establish a lunar base. Governments can support scientific research to help, but the actual development must be done by the private sector. NGOs should take leadership.
 

14.23 Establish a human settlement on Mars.
This has always been the long-term vision of space programs, but costs have to be reduced, international cooperation has to be achieved, knowledge about living in space has to be sufficient, and the political rationale has to be accepted. The success of ISS will be necessary for these conditions. After ISS, a decision will have to be made about the next space goals. I think that the critical decision will be made in 2005-2010. A human settlement on Mars is quite realistic in the future. Successful management of lunar development will prepare us for Martian development. It is too early to commit to a new goal now, but robotic probes should be continued.... If you cannot protect the earth, how can you protect other planets? .... NGOs should take leadership in this discussion.
 

14.24 Apply the new knowledge of brain reasoning and decision processes to enhance the brain’s ability for complex reasoning.
It took many decades for new knowledge from Newton to percolate through common understanding, and find application in everyday engineering. Likewise, it will take a long time to use new knowledge about learning and intelligent systems into a variety of domains.

Early attempts at “brain-based” individualized instruction have been criticized as too simplistic; however, in the long term, it is essential that the educational system be modified to better serve the off-center students - the students who could learn more and the students who need special help. At a minimum, learning-based software informed by better models of human learning could be useful in many core areas, such as reading and mathematics, building on and automating some of the very special successful programs of the best researchers in these areas.
 

14.25 Fund the development of knowledge-based databases in rapidly advancing fields such as microgenetics.
To make this work, there should be a global entry point (Internet) web site where you can find links to good quality databases. Two hundred or more individuals could monitor Internet sites of their interests and provide digests for the quality links. These individuals would have to be motivated by improving the quality of science, not money. The Virtual Library is not getting this done. CERN might do this, maybe ICSU should.... Add socialware and sociocybernetics.... Some prefer investments into collaboratories rather than databases.

It is happening already - across all sciences facilitated by IT developments, and software, modeling can now be much more systematic in pulling together data from across the world. Our understandings of complex systems are better than our agreements about priorities for such knowledge. Should the priority be to solve problems such as hunger?
 

14.26 Increase funding devoted to the study and discussion of ethical issues in biotechnology including patents, royalties, and informed consent.
The Genomic Institute, NHGRI, and NIH are currently studying this, providing grants, and holding meetings. It has to be debated biologically, legally, socially, and politically.  Patents are a fact of life now.  They have to be respected; informed consent is a must; industries, governments, and universities should lead this action, and religious views should be considered.
 

14.27 Test a solar power satellite in orbit.
Extremely important and should be the next goal after the ISS.... Finally some action on this is possible. A study in the late 1980s was designed to kill the idea by assuming that all materials and components were manufactured on Earth and then flown to orbit by a large number of flights by the original space shuttle. Since the study showed that the kilowatt/hour cost was about the same a nuclear power, it was argued why go to unproven technology? The more intelligent approach would use near-by asteroids and/or lunar material and manufacture and assemble as much as possible in space orbit (mechanical spider spinning photovoltaic webs of solar satellites) or the moon (robotic cockroach ingesting lunar soil and secreting solar panels).

The US has allocated $25 million to update the research on Solar Power Satellites (SPS), now referred to as Wireless Power Transmission. NASDA would be happy to take leadership to pursue a feasibility study. .... The Japanese government (MITI) should take leadership. Japan is such a small country, and would be a good test case for a solar power satellite.... Consider environmental impacts [See challenge 13 on energy].

It was accurate to predict in the 1980s that a straightforward use of technology, then available, would not be cost competitive in the energy market. Because of the enormous social benefits of developing a competitive alternative to nuclear power for base-load electricity, there should be major research activities aimed at attacking the main cost drivers of such systems.
 

14.28 Fund research designed to improve understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe and the solar system, and the use of this knowledge in developing completely novel technologies.
NASA has begun the “Origins Program” for this research. This is going on well, led by governments and universities. The purpose of almost all space science projects is related to the origins issue..... Completely novel technologies have to be developed to improve understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe and solar system.
 

14.29 Create incentives in the health care and other industries to invest in prevention rather than remediation.
Health Departments and Insurance companies should support industries.  Tax concessions should be given.
 

14.30 Promote studies of the philosophy of science to reach a better understanding of objective vs. subjective truth.
History of science is also important and can give insights into the philosophy of science. Value system and philosophy of science should be built into science curricula.
 

14.31 Include in educational curriculum explanations of how space programs impact medicine, agriculture, science, employment, reduced inflation, economic growth, reduction of pollution, and global communications.
The biggest event in the history of Internet was the 700 million hits NASA’s web site got over a 2-3 month period during the recent Mars landing. Anyone accessing this site got the same information at the same time as NASA scientists.  This is an example of an educational event that engages the public in space science.

Currently NASA leads in providing information to the public including software companies and the Internet. This is a very important action. We need to accumulate intellectual potential internationally to develop good training programs. Maybe it should be done in a higher level than the elementary school.

It depends on the purpose and how it is done. Education about space and its impacts is fine, but it should not be used to force children to believe in space migration. It would be more appropriate to use space as a subject to stimulate children’s intellectual development.

If the purpose of this action is to promote space projects and to get people’s attention, there might be better actions. For example, Japanese children were provided the opportunity to make rockets. Children and their parents become interested in space projects through these enjoyable activities. These natural approaches are appropriate to promote space projects.

There are fewer Japanese students interested in science than before. A big change in education would be necessary. I hope that space can be used to increase and expand children’s curiosity so that they can keep and develop dreams of humanity.
 

14.32 Set aside research funds for experimental applications of currently novel theories such as chaos and complexity.
These should be treated as basic research. R & D institutions should pressure governments to identify them as important new areas.
 

14.33 Expand and support funding for the National Institutes of Alternative Medicine.
Dialogs between eastern and western medicine should be supported. Medicine, as well as other borderline sciences (especially in the range of environment and ecology) need cooperation. It is very useful to recognize the view of oriental philosophy, and meanwhile to develop new areas, while developing the integration where possible.
 

14.34 Increase funding of SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) projects.
Affluent people in the private sector are more likely to fund this using volunteers and spare assets, then large government efforts. For example, “SETI@home” is a scientific experiment that uses individual computers all around the world connected via Internet to help the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).  Individuals participate by running a free program on their computer from <http://setiathome.ssl.berkeley.edu>. The program downloads and analyzes radio telescope data on individual’s computers.

The Origins Program of NASA only looks for extraterrestrial microbes, not sentient beings. The relatively low-level NASA SETI program should be continued. Some think the UN should be part of this effort…. There is no budget for SETI in Japan even though 10 million yen per year can make it happen in there.
 

14.35 Update the 1967 Outer Space Treaty to reflect the new global political and technological situation.
The Moon treaty should also be updates so that energy from space is not blocked. Some do not think it is necessary arguing that reality will be faster than efforts to update a treaty. The issue of space debris can be included. The UN might be responsible for it, but will be difficult, because discussions about where the boundary between sky and space is located has been going on for more than 30 years.
 

14.36 Recognize the risks of an asteroid and meteoroid collision with earth and possibly deploy missiles that could redirect their course.
NASA has begun mapping near-earth asteroids, but it is hard to get people to take this seriously. Although Jupiter did get hit in 1994, the likelihood of earth being hit is too low to consider, but it is still good to give attention to, and educate the public about space. Detecting is necessary, however, active defense is out of the question.... There are too many things to do before worrying about an asteroid.... This idea is a little too dramatic, but if we do it, maybe the UN should take leadership.
 

ADDITIONAL ACTIONS
Research should be done at the local level by individual research institutions, and only those activities that require global action should be done through international research programs. There is need for some international convention in order to determine the main principles of international collaboration in science.

A better development policy than technology transfer from the rich to the poor is to teach people science and technology like software for agriculture to better manage their own resources.  This will also improve understanding of the long-term consequences of decisions rather than to pit environment vs. economic growth.

National development banks in poorer regions should make funds available for R&D for new competitive local production systems and new technological applications. WIPO should help developing countries create their own patent systems. To popularize the importance and fun in science and technology, government science and technology committees should support people in the media, education, and the arts to create art and music, videos, exhibitions, competitions, and S&T clubs.

Something like a Geneva Convention should be created for biotechnology research with a set of values and codes for research that would be internationally enforceable. These codes would recognize ethical behavior. A model is the Recombinant Advisory Committee through which moral suasion defines what is wrong to do in the field. Governments should facilitate co-research and co-development of technologies among companies that might normally compete, both within a country and internationally. This would have the advantage of transferring technology effectively as well as stimulating needed areas of study. Co-development might be pursued through the SBIR mechanism, tax rebates, or through mechanisms associated with intellectual property.

Perhaps there is need for a new kind of research institution. Santa Fe Institute may be a precursor. Their system is designed to promote turnover- no tenure. People stay there from 6 months to a maximum of 4-5 years, with an average of one year. The individual is the research unit, but of course there is a lot of collaboration with others. R & D management skills and innovation management should be taught at Universities.

There are nine major food sources that have been genetically engineered: soya, corn, canola, cotton, potatoes, tomatoes, squash, papaya, and rBGH dairy products. From these come all sorts of processed derivatives, e.g., soy oil, corn starch, corn syrup, canola oil, lecithin, vitamin E, etc.  Along with these major food sources we also have another category of GE ingredients: additives and processing agents.  Things like enzymes are used in the manufacturing of cheese, sugar, vitamins, juices, natural flavors, etc. As a result, the majority of the foods contain some GE component.

The lack of accurate labeling makes it impossible to tell what foods contain GE and what foods do not.  The lack of segregation at the processing stage makes it necessary to suspect any of the potential ingredients.  Mothers for Natural Law have created a database on their website of non-GE suppliers from all over the world to help manufacturers find sources of non-GE ingredients. Much of the environmental movement is opposed to genetically modified crops, and activists have been responsible for destroying fields in which genetically modified plants were being experimentally grown.

UNESCO should focus more attention on the link between application and research. When inventions are proprietary, they tend to lock up the technology. Companies performing research deserve to get a return for their efforts, but the question is how to get such developments into the public domain as soon as practical.  We should invent policies that solve this problem.... Developing countries need ways to participate in research and share in the results.  Maybe some for of standardized regulations might foster the spread and introduction of new technology. Novel technologies should be introduced by using pilot programs wherever it is feasible. This includes social technologies as well.

There is a need to coordinate more with other major research efforts, such as space-based astrophysics work that could shed light on some of the deeper mysteries. Also, focus is needed on areas such as alternate fundamental models of nuclear physics, which are at the core of our present testable ignorance but still one step removed from direct issues in interstellar travel. Furthermore, to accommodate such extensions, more interagency cooperation and funding may be needed.

Some potential benefits from space, such as the direct benefits of solar power satellites, are best analyzed within the context of other objectives. It is also important to ask how a variety of space activities yield additional benefits, by building on each other, and ultimately opening up the prospect of a new habitat for humanity. For the next few centuries, perhaps the best analytic approach is to view space as a kind of less-developed economic region, and ask what changes will be required in order to permit self-sustained autonomous economic growth in that region. By implementing tax holidays and credits for developing economic activity in space, the governments can help the space transportation industry compete for investment funds.  Privatization of the International Space Station will allow new usage of low earth orbit and the development of new markets.  By supporting Solar Power from Space and asteroid discovery, the next millennium’s energy source can be beamed to an Earth safe from the danger of asteroid strikes.  Support of Mars Exploration will help open the far frontier to people.

Encourage the search for alternative and natural sources of food from animal and vegetal origin. There are plants and animals “hidden” in the environment of developing countries. The search should be done in an appropriate way to promote their interest in using their own natural products. Induce searches for an alternative method for eliminating pests from agricultural regions, such as using biological control.

Education should make more use of the mentor and coaching approaches through advanced telecommunications.... Create demonstration projects that show how to achieve a better life.... Enhance creativity of young minds.

According to the US National Research Council, the US government should invest US $3 to $5 million a year for up to five years in six technology areas that will enable other space development activities. They are: 1) Tools for mining resources from the moon, Mars, or other planets. Using resources from space would provide an alternative to launching supplies from Earth. For example, oxygen extracted from the moon’s surface could be used to make rocket propellant, which could dramatically cut costs of long-duration missions. Technology development should focus on extraction, processing, and storage methods; 2) High frequency, wideband interplanetary communications systems; 3) Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) for space. Microelectromechanical systems such as microscopic gears, sensors, and switches already are being used for other purposes. These could be used for spacecraft sensors, communications, navigation, power, and propulsion systems. These technologies could eventually be adapted to create miniature spacecraft; 4) Nuclear power systems. Many deep space missions unable to rely on solar power could use advanced nuclear reactors. Nuclear power systems typically are compact, durable, and resistant to space radiation, dust storms, or other external upsets. Work in this area should focus on improving energy-conversion efficiency and developing safer nuclear power sources through new materials and designs; 5) Radiation-resistant computer memories and electronics; and 6) Precisely controlled antennas, mirrors, and other space structures. These types of large, lightweight structures are difficult to control in weightless space environments.

NASA should continue its program in “breakthrough propulsion physics”, which attempts to explore the possibility of someday developing interstellar transportation, above and beyond what now appears possible with known technology…. The environmental and population impact of nanotechnology should be explained.

• Brief overview
• Indicators
• Regional views
• Detailed discussion on this challenge is in the CD-ROM accompanying the State of the Future reports