Technological Capacity

Global Challenges excerpt from the 2010 State of the Future report

Information Technology

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]

Energy

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge 13]

Science and Technology

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelarated to improve the human condition? [Challenge 14]


Globalization of Information Technology

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]

 -- Brief Overview --

Nearly 30% of humanity is connected to the Internet, which has evolved from a passive information repository (Web 1.0) to a user-generated and participatory system (Web 2.0) and is morphing into Web 3.0, a more intelligent partner that has knowledge about the meaning of the information it stores and the ability to reason with that knowledge. With 5 billion mobile phone subscriptions, falling prices for iPhone-like devices, and the built environment getting multimedia implanted transceivers and a variety of sensors, it is reasonable to assume that the majority of the world—now urbanized—will experience ubiquitous computing and eventually spend most of its time in some form of technologically augmented reality. Today, mobile devices have become personal electronic companions, combining computer, GPS, telephone, camera, projector, music player, TV, and a library that is "aware" of its surroundings.

Self-organizing social networks are augmenting hierarchical management of natural disasters, scientific research, and environmental monitoring. These new forms of transnational democracy are giving birth to unprecedented international conscience and action. Such open systems seem natural responses to an increasing complexity that has grown beyond hierarchical control. Open source software's non-ownership model may become a significant element in the next economic system. One of the "next big things" could be the emergence of collective intelligences for issues, businesses, and countries, forming new kinds of organizations able to address problems and opportunities without conventional management. Collective intelligence can be thought of as a continually emerging property from synergies among people, software, and information that continually learns from feedback to produce just-in-time knowledge for better decisions than any one of these elements acting alone. Real-time stream communications shorten the time it takes from situational awareness to decisions. However, growth of live streaming video puts stress on the Internet's capacities, requiring new approaches to keep up with bandwidth demand. Businesses are building offices and holding meetings in Second Life and other cyberworlds that compete with conventional reality. Wikipedia has become the world's encyclopedia, albeit with information reliability problems and struggles to counter disinformation campaigns, and people are trusting their data and software to "cloud computing" on distant Net-connected servers rather than their own computers.

The Net has also created a new "virtual world" of a different type, blending into a single intercommunicating entertainment/image entity the domains of television, film, photography, music, and the visual Web (e.g. YouTube), so that images and performances flow freely among the various modalities. (There are also 14,000 Net "radio stations".) It has also created an analogous intellectual world of information, linking newspapers, magazines, Web blogs and searches, TV news and information, and books and libraries.

Issues of intellectual property are unresolved, however, and governments are wrestling with how to control harmful content. Humanity, the built environment, and ubiquitous computing are becoming a continuum of consciousness and technology reflecting the full range of human behavior, from individual philanthropy to organized crime. Low-cost computers are replacing high-cost weapons as an instrument of power in asymmetrical warfare. Cyberspace is also becoming a battle zone among competing commercial interests and ideological adversaries as well as a key tool for extremists and a battleground between cybercriminals and law enforcement. Fundamental rethinking will be required to ensure that the world's population will be able to have reasonable faith in information. We have to learn how to counter future forms of information warfare that otherwise could lead to the distrust of all forms of information in cyberspace.

Meanwhile, Internet bases with wireless transmission are being constructed in remote villages; cell phones with Internet access are being designed for educational and business access by the lowest-income groups; and innovative programs are being created to connect the poorest 2 billion people to the evolving nervous system of civilization. Social networking spurs the growth of political consciousness and popular power, and e-government systems allow citizens to receive valuable information from their leaders, provide feedback to them, and carry out needed transactions without time-consuming and possibly corrupt human intermediaries. E-government systems exist to some degree for the majority of the world; the UN has conducted comparative assessments of the e-government status of its 191 member states since 2003.

Developing countries and foreign aid should have expanded broadband access as national priorities, to make it easier to use the Internet to connect developing-country professionals overseas with the development processes back home, improve educational and business usage, and make e-government and other forms of development more available. Challenge 6 will have been addressed seriously when Internet access and basic tele-education are free and available universally and when basic tele-medicine is commonplace everywhere.

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Energy

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge 13]

 -- Brief Overview --

World energy demand is expected to increase by between 40% to 50% over the next 25 years, with the vast majority of the increase being in China and India. Without major policy and technological changes (which could be triggered by the BP oil spill), fossil fuels will dominate energy sources, making large-scale carbon capture, storage, and/or reuse a top priority to reduce climate change. The total global renewable energy investment for 2010 is estimated at $200 billion, up nearly 50% from 2009. To meet total energy demand, an annual $1.1 trillion (1.4% of global GDP) is needed, and an additional $10.5-trillion investment by 2030 will be necessary if the world is to meet the goal of keeping atmospheric CO2 concentration below 450ppm. In the meantime, the world spends more than $310 billion on energy subsidies every year. G20 leaders pledged to phase out fossil fuel subsidies in the medium term. Eliminating subsidies could lead to a 10% reduction of GHG emissions by 2050.

Auto manufacturers around the world are racing to create alternatives to petroleum-powered cars. US billionaire Warren Buffett and Germany's Daimler have teamed with China's BYD to accelerate electric car production. In 2008, for the first time, the majority of US and EU increases in the production of electricity came from renewable sources instead of fossil or nuclear sources. The total global renewable energy investment for 2010 is estimated at $200 billion, up nearly 50% from 2009, and is expected to continue to increase. Meanwhile, 1.5 billion people have no access to electricity and 3 billion still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Up to a billion more have access only to unreliable electricity networks. In the IEA reference scenario, the number of people lacking access to electricity drops by only 200 million by 2030 and the number actually increases in Africa. The World Bank estimates that countries with underperforming energy systems may lose up to 1–2% of growth potential every year, while billions of gallons of petroleum are wasted in traffic jams around the world.

Massive saltwater irrigation can produce 7,600 liters/hectare-year of biofuels via halophyte plants and 200,000 liters/hectare-year via algae and cyanobacteria, instead of using less-efficient freshwater biofuel production that has catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. Exxon announced its investment of $600 million to produce liquid transportation fuels from algae. CO2 emissions from coal plants might be re-used to produce biofuels and perhaps carbon nanotubes. The global market value for liquid biofuel and bioenergy manufacturing is estimated at $102.5 billion in 2009 and is projected to grow to nearly $170.4 billion by 2014.

Japan plans to have a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030 and may launch an initial experimental satellite as early as 2011. Such space-based solar energy systems could meet the world's electricity requirements indefinitely without nuclear waste or GHG emissions. Eventually, such a system of satellites could manage base-load electricity on a global basis. Drilling to hot rock (two to five kilometers down) could make geothermal energy available where conventional geothermal has not been possible. A total of 438 nuclear reactors are operating today; 57 are under construction. Hundreds of nuclear power plants around the world are planned for decommissioning, yet costs are very high. Estimates to decommission a nuclear reactor range from $325 to over $500 million. Spent fuel rods are often stored on site. Another Chernobyl-type accident or nuclear hijacking could halt expansion of nuclear power.

Innovations are accelerating: concentrator photovoltaics that dramatically reduce costs; waste heat from power plants, human bodies, and microchips to produce electricity; genomics to create hydrogen-producing photosynthesis; buildings to produce more energy than consumed; solar energy to produce hydrogen; microbial fuel cells to generate electricity; and compact fluorescent light bulbs and light-emitting diodes to significantly conserve energy, as would nanotubes that conduct electricity. Solar farms can focus sunlight atop towers with Stirling engines and other generators. Estimates for the potential of wind energy continue to increase, but so do maintenance problems. Plastic nanotech photovoltaics printed on buildings and other surfaces could cut costs and increase efficiency. The transition to a hydrogen infrastructure may be too expensive and too late to affect climate change, while plug-in hybrids, flex-fuel, electric, and compressed air vehicles could provide alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles sooner. Unused nighttime power production could supply electric and plug-in hybrid cars. National unique all-electric car programs are being implemented in Denmark and Israel, with discussions being held in 30 other countries.

Challenge 13 will have been addressed seriously when the total energy production from environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row and when atmospheric CO2 additions drop for at least five years.

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Science and Technology

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? [Challenge 14]

 -- Brief Overview --

Within five years, nearly half the world will have access to all the scientific and technological knowledge available on the Internet via mobile phones. It is reasonable to assume that one day everyone in the world will have access to all of the world's knowledge that is publically available anywhere, anytime.

As the growth and power of the Internet continues to surprise much of the world, the syntheses among the sciences and resulting technological breakthroughs may have even greater impacts to transform the human condition. The ability to invent life has been demonstrated. The J. Craig Venter Institute synthesized a 1.08-million base pair chromosome to construct the bacterial cell Mycoplasma mycoides JCVI-syn1.0, the first self-replicating synthetic cell. Venter forecasts that as computer code is written to create software to augment human capabilities, so too genetic code will be written to create life forms to augment civilization.

Synthetic neurobiologists are creating "co-processors" for the brain to cure blindness or make us more intelligent. The lab-created Isx-9 molecule can make nerve stem cells mature into brain cells, leading the way to brain regeneration. And other stem cell applications could revitalize any part of the body in the future. IBM plans to have the Sequoia 20-petaflops computer ready for DOE by 2012, which is estimated to be the first computer with the processing power of a human brain. A transistor has been built from seven atoms. There are already machines that can be controlled by thought alone. The acceleration of S&T innovations from improved instrumentation, communications among scientists, and synergies among nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, cognitive science, and quantum technology continues to fundamentally change the prospects for civilization.

Millions of people passively volunteer their computers' excess capacity to run data analysis programs to help speed up research in biomedicine, mathematics, artificial intelligence, and cancer. Over 50 million volunteer citizen scientists gather and analyze data, dramatically expanding the capacity of scientific research around the world. Patients with rare diseases share real-time clinical data to assist doctors. Free university courses, curricula, and tools in science and technology are increasing on the Web to share extraordinary breakthroughs.

Scanning electron microscopes can see 0.01 nanometers (the distance between a hydrogen nucleus and its electron), and the Hubble telescope has seen 13.2 billion light-years away. The Large Hadron Collider is exploring the nature of dark energy. Photons have been slowed and accelerated, and four photons have been precisely controlled on a silicon chip to learn how to create optical computers. Over 450 planets have been discovered orbiting other stars. A record five photons have been entangled (quantum entanglement is the simultaneous change of entangled objects separated in space) to explore futuristic communications, security, simple teleportation, and the transport of energy. External light can be concentrated inside the body for photodynamic therapy and to power implanted devices. Nanobots the size of blood cells may one day enter the body to diagnose and provide therapies and internal VR imagery. MRI brain imaging shows primitive pictures of real-time thought processes. Magnetic signals from a single electron buried inside a solid sample have been detected.

A new sensor can detect over 2,000 viruses and about 900 bacteria within 24 hours. Extinct mammoth's blood now lives using ancient DNA. Nanotechnology-based products have grown by 25% in the last year to over 800 items today for the release of medicine in the body, thin-film photovoltaics, super hard surfaces, and many lightweight strong objects. DNA scans open the possibility of customized medicine and eliminating inherited diseases. Viruses have been used to help build efficient batteries that are half the size of a human cell. Transistors measuring 10-by-1 atoms have been produced out of graphene, a material just 1 atom thick—the thinnest material in the world. Graphene may ultimately replace silicon in many nano-electronic applications. Over 12 million robots do everything from routine surgery to building cars and managing farms, even marrying couples in Japan.

Despite these achievements, the risks from acceleration and globalization of S&T remain (see CD Chapter 3.5) and give rise to future ethical issues (see CD Chapters 5 and 11). Do we have a right to clone our selves or bring dinosaurs back to life? The environmental health impacts of nanotech are in question. The spread of new robotic applications, particularly in warfare, has raised questions about the wisdom of autonomous machines controlled by humans on the other side of the world. Many of these advances raise complex issues of international affairs, ethics, and law. Anti-science views proliferate via blogs around the world. However, supporting basic science is necessary to improve knowledge that applied science and technology draws on to improve the human condition. We need a global collective intelligence system to track S&T advances, forecast consequences, and document a range of views so that politicians and the public can understand the potential consequences of new S&T. Currently the InterAcademy Panel, a worldwide network of 100 science academies, is increasing access to S&T information and cooperation around the world, and heads of government science information portals are beginning to collaborate.

Challenge 14 will have been addressed seriously when the funding of R&D for societal needs reaches parity with funding for weapons and when an international science and technology organization is established that routinely connects world S&T knowledge for use in R&D priority setting and legislation.

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