Technological Capacity

Global Challenges excerpt from the 2010 State of the Future report

This section includes regional views on the following challenges:

Information Technology

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]

Energy

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge 13]

Science and Technology

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelarated to improve the human condition? [Challenge 14]


Information Technology

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: According to worldinternetstats.com, Internet penetration in Africa is 8.7%, up 55% since last year. New fiber-optic cables are cutting cost and increasing speed. About 37% of the African population has mobile telephones. Nigeria launched an anti-scam campaign, arresting 18 people. Kenya is carrying out a Digital Villages Project, and one company has already set up 500 centers. Tele-education, tele-medicine, and e-government will become more important as African professionals die of AIDS in increasing numbers.

Asia and Oceania: Asia has the largest share of the world's Internet users (42%) but only 20% penetration. China has about 400 million Internet users with nearly 250 million Internet-connected mobile phones. The governments of China, Vietnam, Turkey, and Iran have tightened controls on Internet access. The UN continues to rate South Korea the top e-ready country, but that nation is struggling with video game addiction. Social networks and blogs are becoming an important factor in Indonesian public life, seriously disturbing officialdom. Some 300,000 people in Bangladesh are learning English from the BBC. Phones are being smuggled into North Korea to post reports on conditions. India is establishing e-government stations in rural villages. Twitter via mobile phones kept Iranians informed of post-election controversies in 2009.

Europe: Over 65% of EU-27 households had access to the Internet in 2009. It is the national policy of Finland to connect the poorest of the world to the information society, and it has made 1 MB/s broadband a legal right for all Finns. The EU's Safer Internet Programme is working in 26 European countries to counter child pornography, pedophilia, and digital bullying. Moldova and Ukraine are perceived as havens for cybercriminals. A number of Russian regional parliaments are webcasting their proceedings. Russia has also set up an e-government portal to save its citizens endless waits in line. Belarus is clamping down on the Internet. The EU policy is that Internet access is a right, but it can be cut off for misuse. Macedonia is providing computers to all in grades 1–3 and to 22,000 teachers in grades 1–8. Estonians will vote by mobile phones in 2011.

Latin America: About 32% of the region has Internet access. The region's children with Internet access will rise from 1.5 million today to 30 million by 2015. Uruguay is the first country to provide all primary students with their own Internet-connected laptop. Fulfilling the promise of these tools will require more serious attention to training. The Internet was of great assistance in dealing with the Haiti earthquake. Fiber optic cable is being laid between Cuba and Venezuela.

North America: Although 63% of adults in the U.S. have home broadband—a 15% increase from 2008—the nation fell from eighteenth to twenty-second place in broadband speed. Broadband development in rural and underserved areas was undermined by the financial crisis. The U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team reported an estimated 60% increase in cyber attacks against government computer networks in 2009. The U.S. government opened the National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center for government cyber security and the U.S. Cyber Command for military coordination and security.

Figure: Internet Users in the World by Geographic Regions in Millions (2010)

Source: internetworldstats.com

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Energy

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge 13]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: The Nile River has 8,000 megawatts of hydroelectric potential, while East Africa has an estimated installed capacity of 1,800 MW. An estimated 370,000 gigawatt-hours of energy flow through the Inga Dams in the Congo basin every year, but violence and corruption prevent its proper development and management. Only about one-fifth of the sub-Saharan population has access to electricity, compared with about half in South Asia and more than four-fifths in Latin America. Zimbabwe agreed to supply electricity to South Africa during the World Cup, although it is failing to meet domestic power requirements. By 2050, some 10–25% of Europe's electricity needs could be met by North African solar thermal plants. With support from development partners, African leaders agreed to invest $10 billion annually between 2009 and 2014 in renewable energy.

Asia and Oceania: China has 60% of the global market for solar water heaters and over 50% of the market for solar panels, and its energy use per unit of GDP has fallen 14.4% over the last four years. China now produces more cars than the US and Japan and could lead the world in electric car production. Some mining companies are charged "ecological compensation fees" totaling over 35 billion yuan for environmental protection projects. China now uses more coal than the U.S., Europe, and Japan combined, yet at the same time China has emerged as the world's leading builder of more-efficient, less polluting coal power plants. Half of the households in India have no access to electricity. India's $3,000 car may accelerate car ownership in developing countries. The International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) has opened in Abu Dhabi. Samsung released the Blue Earth solar-powered phone made from recycled water bottles. Australia plans to build the world's largest solar energy plant.

Europe: The EU is expected to replace half of its existing electricity plants by 2030 and is on track to generate 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. An integrated smart grid connecting Europe and North Africa could help Europe to meet its electricity demand jus with renewables. In the meantime, EU plans to have 10–12 CCS demonstration plants in operation by 2015 and to make the technology commercially available by 2020. The UK is the largest offshore wind generator in the world. Russia has vast natural energy resources but plans to have 25% of its energy from nuclear sources by 2020.

Latin America: Geothermal, solar, and wind are vast untapped resources for the region, as are gains from efficiencies. Brazil started a $702-million initiative to plant palm trees in deforested parts of the Amazon for biofuel production. Latin American wind energy capacity doubled last year, mainly due to Brazil and Mexico. Brazil produces ethanol for 60¢ per gallon, meeting 40% of its automotive needs; 90% of automobiles produced in Brazil are flex-fuel (can use ethanol or gasoline), and the country has discovered over 40 billion barrels of possible offshore oil under the pre-salt formations in the Santos field. If Venezuela used advanced technologies, its Orinoco heavy oil reserves would be larger than those of Saudi Arabia.

North America: Burning fossil fuels costs the U.S. about $120 billion a year in health costs. The U.S. GDP share of oil expenditures rose from 1.8% in 1993 to 3.8% today. Algae farms for biofuel may cost $46.2 billion per year to replace U.S. dependence on petroleum for transport. UCLA researchers have engineered bacteria, cyanobacterium, to consume CO2 and produce liquid fuel isobutanol. From 2002 to 2008, the U.S. spent $72 billion on fossil fuels subsidies, compared with $29 billion on renewables (which include $16.8 billion on corn-based ethanol). The U.S. now plans to invest $150 billion over 10 years in renewable energy, and President Obama wants 39 mpg for cars by 2016. The clean energy investments in the Recovery Act will create 720,000 job-years by the end of 2012. California requires refineries, producers, and importers of motor fuels to reduce the carbon intensity of their products by 10% by 2020. Pacific Gas & Electric Co. of California agreed to buy 200 megawatts of space-based solar power by 2016 from Solaren. Recycling waste heat from nuclear power plants to home air conditioners and recycling even body heat to recharge batteries could reduce CO2 by 10–20% in the United States. Los Alamos National Lab proved its electrochemical process successfully recovers CO2 from its capture solution for fuel production. About 12% of venture capital investments went to clean energy in 2009.

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Science and Technology

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? [Challenge 14]

-- Regional Considerations --

Africa: The Commission for Africa recommended that foreign donors commit to $5 billion over 10 years for African universities' S&T capacity to make sustainable economic growth for the continent. The Association of African Universities networks representatives of nearly 140 African universities. Collaborations continue among New Partnership for Africa's Development, the UN University, the UN Economic Commission for Africa, and UNESCO. Collaboratories could make such collaboration more real. Africa has 83 engineers for every 1 million people, compared with 1,000 per million in the more developed world.

Asia and Oceania: China is expected to pass Japan's R&D investments by 2011. Asian countries with double-digit economic growth also have double-digit growth in R&D expenditures. China, Japan, and South Korea could pass the US in clean energy markets. Energy and environment is the focus of US and China relations. Japan has launched a Venus probe that also carried a space sail that gains its energy from solar pressure in space.

Europe: Although the Lisbon Strategy expired in 2010, succeeded by Europe 2020, the EU target of 3% of GDP for R&D has been kept. Some of the older EU Members have achieved it, but not the newer ones. Russia has lost over 500,000 scientists over the last 15 years, but a reverse trend is beginning, salaries have increased, innovation is encouraged, and high tech is being supported.

Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile account for almost 90% of university science in the region, and half of the 500 higher education institutes produce no scientific research. University S&T courses could be required to focus some attention on helping the poorest communities.

North America: About 35% of world R&D is in the U.S., and its total investments for 2010 are expected to the largest ever. Each week the U.S. Patent Office makes thousands of new patents freely available online. Prizes can speed the distribution of technology that benefits humanity, such as the Tech Awards from the Tech Museum in San Jose, California, or Richard Branson's new prize for a plan to remove a billion tons of carbon dioxide a year, as can tech sports like MIT's robot competitions.

Graph: Patents Issued in the U.S. (per year)

Source: U.S. Patent Statistics

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