This section includes regional views on the following challenges:
Globalization of Information Technology
How
can the globalization and convergence of information and communications
technologies work for everyone? [Challenge 6]
Energy
How
can growing energy demand be met safely and efficiently? [Challenge
13]
Science and Technology
How
can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve
the human condition? [Challenge 14]
-- Regional Views --
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
In anticipation of a rise in high-tech investment, several African countries are privatizing their telecommunications sectors. A number of cellular phone operators have entered the Ghanaian market, while ISPs in the country are trying to increase web connections in the country.
The free open-source operating system Linux is
gaining a foothold in Africa—a continent where many cannot afford the license
fees associated with proprietary software.
Many Africans believe the free software model
will enable the continent to leapfrog its status as a technologically underdeveloped
region. The Linux User Project ranks South Africa as the 24th largest nation
of Linux users worldwide and there are registered users in even the most
remote parts of the continent.
According to Equity Stockbrokers, the high cost of software in Africa is a major contributor to the levels of piracy on the continent. Microsoft estimates that Kenya loses USD3.5 billion annually to software piracy, while anti-piracy group, Business Software Alliance, pegs piracy in South Africa at 49% or $94.2 million annually. <www.nua.ie>
In a move that reflects Africa's continuing efforts to improve Internet infrastructure, Africa's largest ISP, Africa Online, has merged with Worldcom subsidiary, UUNet. It also announced plans to develop Internet services across 14 countries, writes the Financial Time on line <www.news.ft.com>. <from Nua.com>
UUNet Africa will be located in South Africa, which is host to almost two million of Africa’s 3 million Internet users. The ISP will focus on eight countries including Ghana, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
The majority of Africa’s Internet users may be in South Africa, but other regions are using the Internet to make up for their lack of natural resources. As Guardian Unlimited reported, Rwanda has latched on to information and communications technology as a means of transforming the country.
The National University of Rwanda (NUR), along with the Kigali Institute of Science and Technology (KIST), offer the fastest and cheapest Internet access in the country. High-speed access has come courtesy of a USAID project called the Leland Initiative, which is aiming to provide similar access for 20 African countries.
The NUR and KIST also provide distance learning courses through what’s known as the African Virtual University—a project funded by the World Bank. Training people to establish and run Rwanda’s IT industry is one challenge, but the big problem will be ensuring that trained people remain in the country.
Weaker governments in Africa fearing the loss of power have been resisting the spread of Internet and its potential affect on language and religion; hence, attention must be given to overcome their fears… and telecommunications monopolies have also slowed innovation in Africa.
Investment to electronic government will help people’s everyday relations with bureaucrats, who in person may not be more difficult.... Africa has 14 telephone lines per 1,000 people, and less than half of 1 per cent of all Africans have used the Internet. About 65% of the people in the world do not have a telephone.... There are more telephones in Tokyo than in all of Africa. Although the capitals of all countries in Africa may have been connected to Internet by 2000, few people will have Internet access due to little infrastructure beyond the capital cities. Yes, they can use a mobile telephone system without infrastructure, but it would cost too much.... The price of the computer may fall, but people still need to “buy” and “pay”. The gap between computer literacy and illiteracy will increase, even among the computer literate. The gap in capability will also increase.... Too much information can make children unmanageable and may expand the current generation gap to an even more extreme. Previously, automation replaced physical strength and labor. Now, automation is replacing knowledge and judgments.
Africans want to equitably share in the benefits that accrue from globalization and the information technology revolution. As it stands now, globalization and information technology growth helped the rich to grow richer and the poor to get poorer. What we see today are more and more mergers of large companies in developed countries with the purpose of creating monopolies to the detriment of the poor countries. There is also lack of recognition that globalization is a double-edged sword. Globalization empowers developing countries because it creates new opportunities. For example, it allows for organic farming, population movements, and other new products and processes. Developed countries should stand ready to accommodate these changes through import liberalization and free labor mobility.
The assumption that technology is capable of being arbitrarily directed is usually wrong because there are many unintended consequences. For example, solar batteries can heat up houses in one region but the construction of solar batteries can destroy the environment in another country. How do you compare the benefit from one action with the disadvantages brought by another actions? Only an economist would try to define a 'risk/benefit' ratio…. Striking a balance between existing social values, cultural specificity, and the control of consequences of globalization is needed.
Information technology is necessary to prevent everyone from going to the cities. If communications are well implemented, local developments and people will stay in their communities. To take advantage of globalization we need open investment policies, trade promotion, and to build an indigenous entrepreneurial class.
Africans will come to realize the: 1) advantage
of developing countries in accessing the e-commerce with an international
infrastructure already created (what a saving to them!); 2) full information
concerning their product’s competitiveness by knowing what’s on the market
in the same area of activity and in which regions and at what price; 3)
rise of productivity by cutting the middle-man and communication time between
suppliers and customers; 3) reduce costs for supplies by accessing a wide
range of offers; 4) increase sales by cheep publicity to consumers without
border or regional restrictions; 5) and that it’s the best means to help
bridge the economic gap, technology gap, education gap, science gap, and
international relations gap.
ASIA and OCEANIA
Poorer areas in Asia need to understand how to
relate to, respond to, and humanize the foreign information blitz.
International Data Corp (IDC) predicts 95 million Internet users in the
Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, by the year 2004. They expect the
largest growth in China, where the number of users is expected to jump
tenfold between now and 2004. Dataquest <www4.gartner.com/> estimates
total Asian users (including Japan) to quadruple to 188 million by 2004.
The research conducted by Dataquest estimated that Japan would be Asia's
largest Internet market by 2004, with 64.5 million Internet users, while
China will have 51 million subscribers and India will have 10.
Many of the Internet users in the region will go online using a mobile device. Only 2.6 percent of mobile phones in the region are now used for Web access but IDC says that this will grow to over 40% by 2005. Revenues from mobile e-commerce in the region will top USD36 billion by 2004, while total e-commerce revenues will exceed USD600 billion by 2005. <idc.com>
In an effort to tackle a "severe shortage" of network specialists in the Asia-Pacific region, the UN Development Program (UNDP) and the US-based Internet networking firm Cisco Systems have announced plans to collaborate on Internet education and training programs. As part of the UNDP's Asia Pacific Development Information Program, Cisco and the UNDP will jointly fund and operate a local networking academy in Kuala Lumpur. Plans are in place to open at least five new local academies where students can learn to design, build, and maintain the networks that connect computers.
The economy of China and other developing countries will speed up significantly with the faster and more efficient technology. The process of technical, institutional, and organizational innovation will be quickened. It reduces the time for information collection and analyses for business decisions, scientific research, and education. Any advancement of information and communication technologies will definitely enhance the mutual understanding between Chinese people and the rest of the world. Unfortunately, information and communication technologies face language barriers between Chinese-speaking people and non-Chinese-speaking peoples. Creating interfaces takes time.
There are now over 22.5 million Internet users in China, according to the latest study from the China Internet Network Information Center; 39% of Internet users surf the Web from work and 35% log on from Internet cafés.
The world is marching into an era of information, globalization and ecologization, which is deeply influencing the production mode, lifestyle, and social institutions in China…. China is studying how to encourage knowledge-based industrial transition with Internet-based education, cultural exchange, and inter-regional, inter-national and inter-sectional cooperation in social, economic, and environmental issues
Information and communications technology (ICT) is the major factor to develop the Chinese economy. We need to apply all types of advanced information and communication technology in our country. ICT will accelerate the speed of the Chinese economy and change our social structure. Thus, the government should focus on the "Government Online Program."… However, globalization of the economy due to the ICT will be in favor of the developed countries and leave the poor countries in another bad situation. The disparity between rich and poor will become larger.
We must have more advanced technology and apply it to business activities. China needs more innovation in ICT to break the control of advanced countries.... We need to educate and spread computer literacy to the masses, and change the price (with thanks to protection of copyrights) barrier to access…. No major segment of the information industry or its technology should be monopolized…. Ensure that there is international collaboration in policies relating to intellectual property rights, electronic business regulations, and taxation.
We welcome the expanding global information networks with the aid of international organizations and developed countries.
Strike a balance between market-driven growth, which tends to be short-term and commercially focused, and government-policy-driven growth, which tends not to be timely enough and could be influenced by special interest advocacy.
ICT can accelerate the process of increasing the knowledge level of the population, improve the capacity to make correct decisions about economic and social development, and promote internal forces to move towards democracy.
40% of Hong Kong's home Internet users are now using a broadband connection to access the Web, up from 28% in October 2000 says Iamasia (an internet-user survey organization for Pacific Asia <www.iamasia.com>) predicting that home broadband penetration will pass 50% later this year. The rapid growth in popularity of broadband net access in Hong Kong has been driven by strong competition in the broadband ISP market, falling access fees, and greater consumer awareness.
Taiwan Japan's NTT DoCoMo Inc. forged an alliance with Taiwan's KG Telecommunications to bring the Japanese mobile giant's multimedia services to Taiwan and eventually to mainland China.
Over 47 million Japanese, or 37% of the population, now have Internet access, according to a new government survey. That figure represents a 74% increase on 1999 figures and is expected to reach 104 million in 2005, fuelled by rapid growth in mobile phone use. This means more than 80 percent of Japan's citizens will be connected to the Internet at that time. IDC predicts that the total number of Internet accounts, including overlaps, will grow annually by 28.5 percent to reach 230 million in 2005. Mobile subscriptions are expected to make up 86.3 million of those accounts. <www.idc.com>
Robots are widely used in Japanese factories and pet robots are for sale. Japanese are getting more comfortable in dealing with machines than with other humans. Vending machines are saying “hello” and “thank you” to customers, while people are not greeting each other in their own neighborhood.... Japanese people are becoming less skillful in dealing with human demands and interchange. Children are paying less attention to living creatures such as flowers, animals, and classmates. The brutal killing of animals and strangers is increasing.
Almost 49% of Koreans over the age of 7 now use the Internet at least once a month, according to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Information and Communication. South Korea's 22.3 million Internet users are the most active in Asia, according to a new survey by Nielsen NetRatings. Web users spend an average of 16 hours and 17 minutes a month online followed by Hong Kong Internet users with nine hours 46 minutes, and Japan with seven hours 56 minutes.
South Korea is in a paradigm shift to a knowledge-based economy…. IT applications in education could be the biggest equalizer between rich and poor countries…. The South Korean national information infrastructure is being built under control of the Ministry of Information and Communication and new business opportunities and jobs are increasing rapidly in the IT industry.
The survey attributed South Korea's heavy Internet use to the country's technological infrastructure, high rates of broadband penetration, and cheap call costs. Unlimited access to the Internet through a dial-up connection costs as little as $8 a month, with broadband subscriptions costing $28 a month.
Newsbytes reports that 98.7% of all companies in Singapore now have Internet access. The Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) of Singapore says that B2B will be worth $59.89 billion this year, up from 50.56 billion last year and $21.98 billion in 1999. This growth has largely been driven by the finance and banking sector. B2B trade with neighboring countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, China, South Korea and Japan is also taking off, according to the IDA. Meanwhile, B2C sales are expected to top $1.51 billion in 2001, up from $643 million in 2000.
The South China Morning Post reports that the number of Internet users in Thailand is expected to double this year to 4.6 million, up from 2.3 million last year. <www.nua.ie/surveys/>
The Pacific Rim, which includes Silicon Valley, Hollywood, Seattle, Japan, and the Asian Four Tigers, will be providing significant leadership in the shape and the growth of the information economy.
Australia has one of the highest concentrations of media ownership in the world. Rupert Murdoch, Kerry Packer, and Kerry Stokes control about 90% of media activities in this country. One reason Australia was downgraded in a recent UN document on the level of democracy here was because of this media ownership concentration.
One third of Australian households have Internet access, while 53% have at least one computer, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. <www.nua.ie> According to IDC, Australia's online population increased by almost 1.9 million between 1999 and 2000, reaching 7.4 million. By the end of 2000, Australia's e-commerce market was worth US$2.9 billion, with further growth expected over the next few years. IDC predicted that e-commerce spending in Australia will be worth well over US$37 billion by 2004. The Australian government expects to cut costs by moving much of its work on-line.
While access to information technology could be
the most rapid means to utilize the benefits of globalization and to reduce
the development gap between developed and developing countries, for least
developed countries like Solomon Islands, the process must begin with infrastructure
development. Of particular importance, is the development of a reliable
and efficient energy sector. Without electricity, access to information
and communication technology will remain a distant possibility for our
rural communities. ---Jeremiah Manele, Charge D'affaires ad Interim and
Chairman of the Solomon Islands Delegation to the United Nations Millennium
Summit.
Pakistan is bombarded with a one-way flow. A long-term, human-interest, values-based vision is needed.
IT is changing the nature of democracy in India. Wide access to information will make governments more accountable. If correct information is not available, people will base decisions on incorrect information. Today, India has an information-enriched society of 8 million people. In three years it will be 20 million, but these figures are based on conservative projections at current prices and technology. Once the information highway enters our living rooms through television, we are talking about a whole new range of products that will change our economy. Those who do not access to these facilities at home will do so in the office. Stand alone information kiosks will facilitate shopping, banking, and ticketing. There will be thousands in India who may not have personal access to the Net but who will access it in other locations. This is already occurring in offices and urban cyber cafes. Soon we will see the Internet in rural markets, albeit in the public domain. Companies want to set up dishes and satellite networks in villages to monitor rural markets.
Meanwhile, Internet use in India currently stands at 0.4% of the adult population, or 1.8 million people. As is the case in other developing nations, the majority of India's existing Internet users are young, well-educated males. Almost half (49%) are in the 18 to 24 age group, while 77% are male. At 2.2 lines per 100 citizens, telephone penetration in India is extremely low. The national telecom provider, VSNL, holds a near monopoly in India's telecoms market, hindering development by private ISPs.
India Express reports that e-commerce in India is expected to be worth US$5.3 billion by 2005, up from 95.8 million last year. B2B transactions is predicted to be $4.95 billion by 2005, up from 85.2 million last year. These figures are taken from a new e-commerce guide released by the Confederation of Indian Industry and the International Trade Center. The guide says that the biggest emerging opportunity for Indian e-business firms is in providing software solutions and services. Security solutions and applications will become increasingly important and the market for these goods is set to grow 11-fold in India by 2005. (<www.nua.ie/surveys/>)
India has emerged as one of the major players in information and communication technology (ICT) and is working to make this capacity develop in all parts of the country, while at the same time preventing economic and social disparities. It has deeply influenced educational programs. As the largest democracy in the world, considerable hope is placed on ICT enabling the population to find a rightful place in obtaining economic, social and human rights. In particular, the nature of these technologies is such that they can create social and economic imbalances. India already suffers from a high level of social and economic disparity. ICT should not further widen that gap. We must package ICT in such a way that it becomes pervasive in all parts of India. The accessibility and affordability of ICT should be ensured so that both small investors and large investors can benefit. A rural community should be able to take advantage, the same as a major city, and people not familiar with the English language should still be able to participate in the ICT function.
Since the ICT is a global phenomenon, every action taken in one part will influence the other. Fortunately, the nature of mutual influence is likely to be more positive than negative. Legal frameworks that prevent Internet crimes and the proliferation of obscene materials from moving from one part of the world to another should be established. On an informal basis, a global framework is functioning in ICT and has demonstrated that effective solutions can be found through unofficial, but well-organized groups. This should continue.
The key issue in the Indian power structure has been limited access for the people to information because of government control. Now information is not only available, but instantly available. People in rural areas can make decisions in real time. Where as television generated information from big city studios and fed the countryside, the Net will generate and circulate information within the rural community itself. For example, if wholesalers post up-to-the minute prices for produce on their Web sites, as is already happening, then every auction can be a net auction and farmers can sell globally. The pepper farmers in Cochin, South India, have already discovered this. They are changing from exploited local producers forced to sell at controlled rates to global players.
This growth of access and quantity of information will all happen in real time. This means people can take decisions on the move. For instance, your cell phone may advise you tickets are available at half price on the midnight flight to Mumbai because the aircraft is empty. This allows both the airline and customer to benefit. If you scale this up into decisions across the economy, you are talking about communication changing the whole way people behave and do business. You are talking about more prosperity because waste and middle men will vanish.
Urban students in India have access to modern technology. They must be further trained and choose an area of interest that will be useful to them…. There will be a boom in the service sector. Young graduates with computer experience will be available to clients anywhere. Talent will become globally tradable. India has several advantages when it comes to the information sector. We are not hampered by licenses when it comes to doing e-commerce. We have a base of IT-savvy people and IT training institutions and we have a legacy of English. If you look 10 years down the line, this advantage will disappear as new voice technology eliminates the need for backroom services, currently estimated as a trillion dollar industry for India. Even if India continues to innovate in IT, we are moving the tech frontier upwards, so, once again it is going to be capital-intensive and the brain drain will continue. There may be more discontent because a large army of people could suddenly become technically obsolete because of quantum shifts in technology. We have to start addressing these issues today.
Also, as a nation India is still hampered by weak infrastructure that will hurt future prosperity. So, while you can in theory sell pepper from Cochin to Chicago, you do not have infrastructure to transport it. The debt trap is something we cannot avoid. We have to lay the pipelines to carry information. India is behind China in this regard. We already have the pipe in place; all it needs is technology and funding to expand it, which is available. The project is stalled because of national security fears.
Demand is going to explode and supply will not match. That is going to impact democracy into extreme discontent. If government cannot deliver, it will have to make way for those who can. The smart thing for governments to do as information explodes is to step back and let accountability move to the market arena. Bureaucracy will have to respond to this and the real political management of institutions will be far more challenging. The new political leaders see themselves as facilitators who empower others, not as centers of power in the old sense.
The city of Bangalore in India has become a dynamic hub of innovation, boasting more than 300 high-tech companies. India’s software exports alone will exceed $4 billion this year—about 9 per cent of India’s total exports—and industry sources project that they will reach $50 billion by 2008…. In the borderless world of tomorrow nationality will be less important. We will see the evolution of an "infocracy " of people who are going to move to hi-tech tax havens, places where better funding and IT infrastructure exists. I see the brain drain continuing. People in Bangalore will be setting up outlets in San Jose, not because they need to be there, but because the opportunities are on a different scale. They will not be starting at the bottom of the immigration ladder and their linkages with India will be different.
Indian companies have become world leaders in designing portals and Web-based applications and they have successfully sidestepped bureaucratic delays and outdated infrastructure by building their own telecommunications systems and beaming their software products by satellite around the world.
State-of-the-art technologies in mass communications have rendered the world a neighborhood, but not a community. The gulf between developing and developed countries continues to widen, despite the global nervous system of communications that have emerged.
On the eve of India’s fiftieth anniversary as a constitutional republic, the President of India warned that his country has "one of the world’s largest reservoirs of technical personnel but also the world’s largest number of illiterates, the largest number of people below the poverty line, and the largest number of children suffering from malnutrition."
In 2001 there are 3.54 million Internet users in the Arab world, up 1.5 million in 2000, according to a new study carried out by Ajeeb.com and sponsored by Tejari.com and Visa International. <www.nua.ie> Ajeeb predicts that there will be over 5 million users in Arab countries by the end of this year, and 10 to 12 million by the end of 2002. Penetration was highest and grew fastest in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The number of Internet users there increased in the past 12 months by 57 percent to 660,000, or almost a quarter of the UAE population.
Bahrain has the next highest level of Internet penetration with 16.67 percent and Qatar is next with 10.27 percent. Kuwait has 8.25 percent, Lebanon has 6.56 percent, and all other Arab countries have less than 5 percent of the population online.
The survey found that the average number of users per Internet account in most Arab countries is three. Jordan has six users per account because of the popularity of Cybercafés and the high cost of home access. Egypt has eight users per account as many users go online at universities. Iraq has the highest number of users per account at 25, largely because of the United Nations sanctions in place against Iraq.
Saudi Arabia is just beginning to increase its Internet use. Most Internet users go online at one of the 200 cybercafes in the kingdom and the average daily time online is 3.5 hours. Seventy-eight percent of users are male, and most are aged between 24 and 31. (<www.nua.ie>)
EUROPE
We have committed ourselves to promote information
technology through a nation-wide program guaranteeing each and every schoolgirl
and schoolboy with free access to the Internet. Today the Estonian government
carries out its sessions via computer and Estonia has risen to be among
the 20 most computerised nations in the world. ---Mart Laar Prime Minister
of the Republic of Estonia.
In Western Europe, success will depend on a mix of necessary technological and social innovations to shape the human interest on the basis of an intensive use of information and communications technologies. Unfortunately, the performance of European countries in these areas is not very convincing.... The power of global media corporations is causing concern in many countries.... Equal Internet access should be guaranteed to all citizens.
Forecasts for the number of European Internet users by 2004 from 233 million (IDC) to 255 million (The eEurope report, eMarketer) or about 60% of the region’s population.
Over 9 million households in the UK, or 37.2 percent of the total number of households, now have Internet access, according to NetValue. Nordea, the biggest Bank in Finland (5 million inhabitants) has 2.3 million online customers, more than any other bank in the world. A fifth of its loans are approved over the Net, saving the bank 30% in processing fees per loan. An online transaction costs 11c, vs. $1 for manual ones, resulting $40 million in annual savings. Finland has 80% penetration of cell phones in homes. About 20% of Norwegians file their tax returns online. German authorities have announced that some citizens there will be able to vote online by 2006.
The use of new possibilities to build and consolidate transnational identities fosters a greater understanding among people and raises the already high European educational levels to even greater levels.
True economies of scale have not yet overcome nationalism in Europe. We, therefore, urgently need true “European corporations,” i.e., corporations under European law, not national law. Most transnational mergers have failed thus far. The airbus is a double-edged example and Daimler-Chrysler is still too young to judge. Globalization is a one-way street thus far. It goes from industrial countries to the rest of the world.
Because Internet is a power means of information and communications, which are key elements of culture, many people are extremely sensitive to the Internet’s cultural influences. That is why many Europeans, in the second most developed region in that respect, are quite against US dominance. A TAU would certainly reduce this feeling and create a feeling of 'togetherness' or 'belonging together'.
It is important to put emerging information technology to work solving problems such as sustainable development, poverty, inequality of citizens, depletion of nature, and equal opportunities for future generations as we enjoy a market economy instead of capitalism.... Massive expansion of the Internet will challenge the democratic processes and underlying values to their limits.
Online business giants grew rapidly. As Europe's leading online auctioneers, Britain's QXL acquired German rival Ricardo, in an agreed takeover worth £627m (US$935m). The combined company will have more than 1.3m registered users in 12 countries and be big enough to mount a realistic challenge in Europe to the American giant, eBay…. Public authorities should support the invention of and spreading of technological innovations, which are easy to use, and support networks that cover all the inhabited areas. Guarantee access and education to all.
One of the main problems facing Europe is how to reconcile the imperatives of globalization with the benefits of a welfare state, which is further charged with the new challenges of sustainable development. The broad use of information and communication technologies turns out to be a key factor. If successful, it will have great impacts on other world regions.
There are already problems linked to the lack of accountability of global media and corporations that are causing difficulties. Access to certain types of information is already limited by the available broadcasting channels and by the few styles of journalism that incorporate in-depth investigation. News reports of events have a standardized format and content which the reader or viewer constantly unsettled as the main story moves to another point of focus, without ever having reached a conclusion on the previous crisis. Fragmented worldviews emerge which reflect the changing circumstances but generate very little understanding or empathy. This condition known as 'compassion fatigue' dominates a large part of current affairs broadcasting from the main channels.
Realize that not everyone has or wants access and that it is not mutually exclusive with face-to-face communication.... Change the focus from an economic one to a human-oriented one.
Nokia the largest mobile phone maker in the world has decided to use the revolutionary Linux software for its new home entertainment system. Linux, which is distributed freely, became a serious rival to the Microsoft Windows operating system.
The government in Russia that proposed the economic reforms did not have the mechanisms or prioritized policies to realize the reforms. Businesses have had to rely on information technology to participate in the global economy and have had to train personnel abroad to use this technology.
Central and Eastern Europe is in a situation where people have high technological knowledge and skills and low income. Globalization gives the opportunity to put the skills to work and increase income. This will help reduce the technological and living standard gaps between developed and developing countries and expand "ethical market economy." It helps to understand the global connections and increase the chance to move towards a peaceful world. The most important action is to educate people in Western Europe and the US on the capabilities that exist in this region. The US Embassy is doing this by informing the government and developing institutions about business opportunities.
In Central and Eastern Europe is great problem policy one-sided oriented on free market economy without the adequate policies oriented toward support of information society, digital economy and e-commerce. European Union has its own strategy oriented toward support of this new economic structures, but countries of Central and Eastern Europe have no state programs in these areas.
Internet changes the way we think, it makes life easier. It is important to access this tool to everyone. E-business changes the sense of time and change in business. Firms must look ahead three or more years and make more difficult predictions. Changing a business partner takes just a second (a single mouse click). E-business has absolutely positive influence on the services/goods a costumer gets.
Internet use is developing very fast in Russia and is becoming less expensive every day. If 2-3 years ago unlimited access cost $100-$200 a month, than now one can find the providers, which give unlimited access for $40. One can already get free access to Internet. But usually lost cost providers give bad services. Schools already teach children to use Internet as well as there are a lot of commercial courses, which teach what way to use Internet as well as a lot of books. These courses are not expensive.
There is a boom in Russia now. All cities, companies, research institutes and many individuals do their own website, which in many cases is the only way to get the information. Even annual reports and databases of major Russian ministries, governmental agencies, municipal bodies, legislative bodies, and foundations are now on Internet. Some controversial issues are discussed in Internet. Internet also helps to link different parts of the Russian Federation from Moscow to Siberia in context of relationship between different companies, research institutes, markets etc. Thus Internet servers like a mean of consolidation of the Russian Federation. Yet it is also true in Russia that we need to "develop content-related standards, graphics, and objects to make Internet easier to use.”
Since more and more websites are no longer free in advanced counties, Internet may not decrease the gap between the poor and rich, but it has helped Russian integration into the world market and world scientific society. Internet was very helpful for Russia. Russian scholars got access to the information of NSF, OECD, EUROSTAT etc. It made its contribution to the development of common language.
At the same time Internet could play a negative role in education. A school should tech to think, to analyze, and to create something new. But very often children get information from Internet when they need to prepare some report or paper. Scholars do the same. It becomes an illness. It is a very dangerous illness, because it could suppress motivations and ability of people to think, to create something new. Scholars and many other people try to find the solution of some issues in Internet, but do not think for ourselves.
Some of the greatest opportunities are in software development and computer-aided design. In these areas, the US has shortages of human resources while Romania has abundance. For example, the United States is constrained by a shortage of over 400,000 software developers. In contrast, Romania has a surplus of such specialists. Each year Microsoft alone recruits 30 recent Romanian graduates. More importantly, American companies are rapidly partnering with Romanian developers in Romania. Over half of Romania's 200 software companies are already exporting to the US and Western Europe. Opportunities in engineering are even greater. For example, at Raytheon's office in Ploiesti, Romanian engineers are doing world-class computer-aided design (CAD) of oil refineries and power plants in the US, the Netherlands and Thailand. Solectron, the $5 billion U.S. super-contractor, opened a brand-new $30 million plant in Timisoara. The Western Romanian town was chosen because of the highly qualified people, safety of the region, and the relatively low salary rates. It already employs 1000 people and exports 120,000 cards a month to Western Europe under the Compaq label. Hewlett Packard has opened a software development office too.
The CEEBIC's Internet home page <www.CEEBICNet.com> provides instant, electronic access to vital commercial information on Central and Eastern Europe featuring daily updates and links to the CEE countries' home pages and US Government agencies.
The Internet provides independent sources of information for Central and Eastern Europe... We want to close the technology gap with the advanced world. Unfortunately, there is little knowledge of the English language among inhabitants, including the political and economic leaders in the region.
Internet availability to all should be within the design of strategy for the information society for Central Europe.... This is more a technical and not an economic problem.... People were used to watching central information sources and now, there is some confusion about what to watch and how to perceive it. People have forgotten how to perceive their own local society.
For ages Central Europe was the meeting point between West and East, the melting point of many cultures including Slavonic, German, and Jewish. Therefore, there is a sense for sharing/cooperation and common values. However, communism turned this into provincialism, isolation, and xenophobia. In this respect, the global and information revolution could promote our tolerance and openness. On the other hand, globalization brings us the "McDonaldization" of society and the degradation of traditional local values.
Information society and information superhighways are the way toward competitiveness of economy.... It can spread information on individuals' responsibility and duties.... These technologies must be accessible for all citizens interested.... This accelerates the process of joining the most advanced parts of the world.
LATIN AMERICA
2000 Statistics for Latin American users vary
from 15 million (IDC) to 21 million (Jupiter Research Center) and predict
that by 2005 there will be 75 million <idc.com> or 77 million <www.jup.com.
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Media Metrix estimates that 8.65 million Brazilians used the Internet in August 2000 half of whom were under 24 years old. 1.35 million Mexicans have Internet accounts, but nearly 2.7 million people use the Internet either at home or in cyber cafés.
Internet penetration in Argentina was 4% percent in 2000 and is set to rise 11.2% to 2.95 million by 2003. Argentina now possesses the highest rate of mobile phone penetration in Latin America at 12%, which is twice that of Mexico or Brazil. Mobile Internet access will be the likely driver for Internet growth in the country.
The case of Chile is proof that globalization is a source of opportunities for the peoples of the world, especially in small countries such as ours on the margins of international flows. --- Ricardo Lagos, President of the Republic of Chile.
Political actions in Brazil, which could accelerate scientific and technological breakthroughs, as well as those, which would promote amplification of information and communication technology, must be based on principles dealing with Social Capital. International relations in the area of scientific and technological cooperation need to be strongly modified. The future should be marked by cooperation, which really considers the scientific and technological competencies of cooperating countries. Countries possessing advanced technologies should be sensitized to the fact that in order to maximize innovation, scientific and technological cooperation through joint partnerships is crucial for producing results. These results cannot easily, nor validly, be produced alone to benefit the international community.
Leading nations in science and technology have given insufficient consideration to the value of the potential contributions of countries like Brazil in scientific research and technological innovation.
About 40% of our population cannot read nor write. They live in the world of images.
What kind of human is all this for? Untermensch? Homo videns has replaced homo sapiens. Students are less logical in their higher order reasoning and read less...People respond with their limbic, emotional, system. The educational impact is limited. Only minority views the Internet for cultural and educational purposes…. Most see it as entertainment.
Costa Rica’s economic growth reached 8.3% in 1999;
the highest in Latin America, fuelled by exports from the microchip industry,
which now accounts for 38% of all exports.
NORTH AMERICA
The Internet is evolving into the global brain
of humanity. Increasingly, communities will organize around common interests
rather than just common genetics and geography…. Information and communication
technologies could enable us to create virtual communities interested in
shaping behavior to benefit mankind; give economic power and political
clout to virtual communities; develop global environmental tracking, monitoring,
and reporting systems; communicate global standards; help global collaboration
on new initiatives and standards; increase global awareness via education
on issues such as those in the Millennium Project survey to inspire improved
human behavior; publicize those behaviors that promote sustainable development
as role models and "how-to" forums for those needing help in getting started.
Nearly 100% of all public schools in the US are now connected to Internet.
Last year U.S. Secretary of Education announced a new national educational technology plan, e-Learning: Putting a World-Class Education at the Fingertips of All Children. The plan completes an 18-month effort that involved educators, administrators, policy-makers and the private sector to rethink and revise the national strategy for the effective use of technology in elementary and secondary education.
Students at a New Jersey middle school experimenting with e-texts can no longer get away with the excuse "the dog ate my homework." Administrators at Memorial Junior Middle School in Hanover say the school is among the first nationwide to experiment with electronic textbooks, meaning some of the school's seventh- and eighth-graders can do all their work - even take tests - online.
If we assume that globalization implies an increase in dependency of parameters in the fitness landscape then computational biology tells us that the range of the larger scale fitness landscape tends to become more uniform (squeeze to one fitness) while the fitness landscape grows more rugged and convoluted locally (lots of local peaks and fewer lofty large peaks). This implies fragmentation of society, government, and possibly companies, as adaptation to local peaks creates rifts across the entity. Society's advancement is certainly not purely evolutionary, but shifts in the fitness landscape will tend to influence societal evolution. Information is only valid through perspective. Perspective is a product of experience. Experience and perception are not uniform, and therefore, there is no reason to expect information and communication technology to create uniformity.
This region, being economically wealthy, is among the leaders in application, but the poorest people are being left out. This is adding to class separations and decreasing the ability of low socio-economic masses to participate in the growing technological opportunities. They are also further separated in understanding the science that undergirds modern issues. These weaknesses work against healthy future democracy by making machinations of governance appear ever more mysterious.... USA is the prime producer of such technologies with very few studies of such issues.
Consider the issue in the same way that we view "education"; that is, as an inherently important activity in its own right, not just as a vehicle for commercial gain. Academic institutions need to link human needs with the study of technologies. Over-specialization has taken place in too many of the academic programs.... Educate students at all levels to understand that they are planet Earth inhabitants and increase the awareness of industry, business, and political leaders of the benefits and pitfalls of the global information age.
Gradually, remove subsidized access rates.... Getting everyone into the act is a major necessity. It is happening slowly. Unfortunately, it is occurring by the same sort of free market methods that operated in the frenzied capitalism of the 1880s.
A spokesperson (one individual, a few individuals, or a small advocacy organization) on behalf of the wider interests of humanity would be useful. The right persons in this role could bring a fresh voice and perspective to the region's R&D.
In the United States, a recently released survey from the National Association of Realtors shows nearly one in four home buyers used the Internet last year to buy a house, which amounts to an 18-fold increase over four years.
The National Center for Education Statistics says that 95% of US schools now have access to the Internet. Governor Angus King of Maine announced a plan to give every seventh grader in the state a laptop with Internet service beginning in the fall of 2002.
In Canada, there was a time when we thought that television was going to be educational, but for the most part it is a vast wasteland.... The real issue with the Internet is the content. Focus on structuring the content for quality and for learning. All leaders agree that education is of prime importance to development. The Internet is a golden opportunity to this end. I would hate to see the Internet become a vast wasteland as television did. We regulate television in Canada to prevent our being inundated with US programs. Four Canadian broadcast channels are required and no cable system can carry more US channels than Canadian channels.
Canada focuses more on access than on blocking
content as a way to prevent the Internet from becoming a medium for conflict,
passionate nationalism, and the loss of local culture. The cyberian geography
of time and space intersects in multi-dimensional personal participation.
This new reality makes action, reaction, and exchange seem instantaneous
and fundamentally changes consciousness and culture.... The development
of the mind is the central change, opening new interests in philosophy
and ethics.... The global availability of CNN may also educate, in terms
of changing attitudes and cultures.
-- Regional Views --
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
Excluding South Africa, over 90 percent of the Sub-Saharan African household energy comes from trees and other forms of biomass, which contributed the encroachment of the desert and global warming.
Extractive industries dominate the region's economy and resources are
being depleted at an alarming rate. Infrastructure requirements are enormous,
particularly in the areas of power generation and telecommunications. Electrical
power consumption, per person, is the lowest in the world.
1.3 billion tons of coal are produced and consumed in China. Two-thirds of the total energy in China is directly burned from coal; most is inefficiently used due to the backward technology of the facilities installed before 70s, which has caused severe environmental problems especially air pollution. Furthermore, the energy demand is still increasing in the near future. The issue of energy security and efficiency therefore is fatal to China's social and economic development.
China is exploring institutional and policy reform to encourage more ecologically sound production processes and products with value changes and alternative life styles in energy consumption.
The problem of energy resources is one of the factors restricting economic development in China. The two major energy problems in China are supply and pollution. The waste and irrational exploitation and utilization of energy resources are very serious. China has vast energy resources.
The current approach to solve the energy crisis in China is to exploit new kinds of energy resources (especially the clean energy resources). We should focus on the use of solar energy in North China, the use of wind energy in northern pastures and mountainous areas in Southwest China, the use of waterpower in main stream reaches and mountainous areas, the use of tide energy in eastern coastal areas. The use of natural gas for driving motor vehicles in cities has developed fast, which will be helpful for treatment of urban environment. New compressed natural gas transportation systems will be necessary until new pipelines are in place.
There are many successful experiences on the use of biogas and other forms of bio-energy in China's countryside. With the development of ecological engineering since 1980s, different agro-ecological engineering models have been adapted to local conditions. Ecological engineering oriented to rural energy resources is the effective approach towards sustainable rural development. More energy-efficient approaches should be introduced in all systems.
Hydropower like the Three Gorges Power Station is a powerful and clean energy source for big cities and industries in the region. The medium-sized hydropower stations will mainly meet the energy demands from small cities. There are also small hydropower stations distributed in the countryside of the southern region for small villages and small industries, and moderate development of solar and bio-energy systems. Larger systems like petroleum power stations in northwestern region, nuclear power stations near some very big cities, and combustion power stations remain on the same scale.
China will need the development of hydropower stations on different scales, wind power stations in the northwestern region, and some nuclear power stations in some areas.
Indonesia and Philippines are reportedly turning to nuclear power.
More than 90% of Korea's energy consumption depends on imports due to the absence of indigenous energy resource.
India needs long-term energy planning. The private sector is concerned with realizing profit quickly and governments are more interested in the next election. TERI was set up to look into the energy issue and we have come up with a few alternatives. The biomass gasifier, for instance, can be used to convert waste into fuel. However, a whole array of devices to raise energy from multiple sources should be tried. Nuclear energy may become the fuel for the future if government demystifies it. One needs to inform the public on the costs, the safety aspect, and the technology because it is a renewable/recyclable resource. The new generation of nuclear plants being developed is much safer; however, they have to be seen in operation. Then there are gas hydrates at the bottom of the sea, and if they are harnessed, could give us unlimited quantities of natural gas. They could be harnessed by new technologies, but it's a matter of allocating new funds for R&D.
In a similar way that governments and aviation companies created an consortium to produce the Airbus, governments and energy companies could create an R&D consortium, but governments would have to provide private sector incentives to make it work.
A Chernobyl-type accident can take place at India's nuclear power plants anytime. The threat is real because India is the only country in the world where nuclear research and plutonium production occur near crowded areas. Some reactors operate beyond danger levels. For instance, the emergency cooling system at the atomic power plants in Madras and Rajasthan are inadequate. The reactors in Tarapur are outmoded and, according to experts, should be closed down immediately.
Japan is studying solar energy from space beamed to electric power grids on earth and plans to have it’s first operational solar power satellite in orbit producing electricity by 2040, but possibly at the three times the current price of electricity. Today, Japan is the largest manufacturer of solar electric panels. Japan’s energy demand is growing while it has almost no natural and traditional energy resources. Japan needs to improve its recycling systems, energy efficiency, and conduct R&D for safer power generators from solar, wind, tidal, and fuel cells utilizing hydrogen. Energy efficiency is a part of the Japanese culture. Japanese business entities are competing to appeal to consumers on how they are energy-concerned. “Recycle” is a catchword for every corporate activity.
The Middle and Near East has an abundance of oil, which helps us to overlook the seriousness of the challenge in the long run to developing solar and wind energy technology in the region.
A recent report to the Australian Federal Government shows that while micro-economic reform in the electricity industry is regarded as an economic success (resulting in lower energy costs), in the short to medium term, it is expected to result in increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is compared to what could have been expected under the old system prior to deregulation. As the report states "The current reform measures may not contribute a positive cumulative decrease in GHG emissions until around 2012."
Australian industry needs to pursue more co-generation opportunities-including companies using wastes and by-products to generate their own electricity.
The statement of the issue is a part of the problem. A growing demand
for energy is the problem. There must be a change in values, understanding,
and lifestyle to demand less energy. In addition, the lower polluting and
less destructive energy sources need to be developed. Ultimately
we will need to depend on the energy that comes directly from the sun.
Our bank account of fossil fuels can hardly last for more than another
century, and less than that for oil and gas. This needs to be made
clear. The formulation of this question is an indicator of a part of the
problem i.e. a GROWING energy demand should be met.
EUROPE
In the wake of successful offshore exploration and development of oil
and gas reserves in Northwestern Europe, the focus must now shift to the
renewable sources of energy.
Market for fuel cells, wind turbines, and solar electric generators is growing in Europe and is the provider of over 10% of the electricity in some regions. For example, Denmark is the leader in wind energy, which now accounts for 15% of its electricity, according to Vital Signs 2001. Germany gets 2.5% of its electricity from wind and with more than 6,100 megawatts of wind power in place, has over twice as much wind power as any other country. The UK has built two turbines off with a capacity to power 6,000 average households. Theoretically, the UK has enough offshore wind to supply three times its current electricity requirements.
The new annual report from Daresbury Laboratory's Synchrotron Radiation Department in the UK claims progress on the development of an electric car powered by a fuel cell that uses methanol to generate electricity to power the car with only water emissions. www.unisci.com/stories/20004/1212005.htm
Europe has high and increasing energy needs. This is currently met by coal, oil, gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric means in general. Given that coal is decreasing in usage, nuclear power is dangerous, and there is little oil, we need to seek alternatives like solar and geothermal energy, and improve efficiencies in the whole chain of usage.
Energy appears to be less of an issue in the UK/Europe in recent years. There is a greater emphasis on conservation…. The nuclear power option is no longer realistic and the Nordic foreign energy dependency is highly risky both economically and politically.
Western Europe should help Eastern countries to close their nuclear power plants, develop greater use of hydroelectric, natural gas, solar, bio-fuels, and wind power, eliminate nuclear power plants and safely dispose of nuclear waste and equipment. It should also increase safety of motor vehicle petroleum use and share of renewable sources in the energy mix. Scotland could use wind farms and wave energy.
Saving energy is the prime source. Increase productivity in energy production based on renewable primary energies is the second. This has been prevented by the monopolistic organization of the energy markets. Liberalization, however, will lead to regional polarization and increase the gap between rich and poor regions. Therefore, regional self-sufficient energy supply might be the major solution.
Europe is concerned about the technological backwardness and dangers of Soviet nuclear reactors and new ones, financed by the West, are politically unfeasible and too costly.
Central and Eastern Europe has to move to greater efficiencies in use and production.
Alternative sources of energy were always in science and technology priorities of the Russian Federation. It does not look like they will capture much of the market but will contribute to some of the local needs. Russia has one of the highest energy intensities in Europe; during 1990s the use of energy per unit of GDP increased as a result of losses in the distribution system. Gas accounted for about 50% of primary fuels in 1995, which is 2.5 times more than in Western Europe. Natural gas also takes a considerable part in fuel balance of Russia. The use of energy per unit of GDP will decrease with penetration of less energy intensive technology and shifts in to service sector.
The lack of large-scale investment in Russia could push the diffusion of small-scale hydropower plants in Russia. They are less investment intensive, more environmentally friendly, and produce no green house gases. Innovations may address the issue of small rivers surfaces freezing during the winter. New innovations developed by the Russian Academy of sciences in 1990s, have contributed to increase of effectiveness of these plants, but climate change could widen the geographical boundaries of these plants diffusion. New generation of geothermal environmentally friendly technology is projected to use in Kamchatka, Choukotka, and some regions of the Far East and Siberia.
The key problems in energy sector are the aging of nuclear power plants, nuclear waste storage, wasteful energy use in industry and household, and energy losses in the distribution system. New generation of nuclear power plants developed by the Russian Academy of Sciences in 1990s could push the increase of the share of nuclear energy. Today the nuclear energy share is rather modest in Russia (about 11%), compared to Germany (about 30%) and France (about 75%).
The main problems in the Czech Republic are dirty sources (brown coal of very bad quality), nuclear power station of Russian technology, and enormous wastage of energy in general.
As a country in transition Czechia had an excellent opportunity in the last 10 years to change the structure of its heavy industry and improve energy efficiency. However, The Czech government decided to finish the construction of a new nuclear power plant, Temelin (voting 11:8). In addition to the cost and potential safety hazards, this means that the Czech Republic’s orientation to heavy industry demanding huge quantities of energy will continue. At least until the end of this millennium Czechia lost its chance to invest money into energy savings, better efficiency, research and development of renewable energy sources etc. This is a crucial problem since scientific and technological progress should be the solution for Czechia’s energy demand-orientation towards energy savings and utilization of renewable resources.
We have a growing reliance on imported natural gas. There are prospects for revival of new, clear, and safer nuclear energy. We should limit the consumption of energy through taxes or higher prices and decentralization of our energy systems.
Basic problem for Slovakia and all Central European states are decision
makers with the lack of will to make fundamental structural changes of
the economy. Foreign investments go to old industrial technologies ignoring
the principles of sustainable development. Systematic solutions are necessary.
The focus on conservation, new technologies, and the increasing awareness
is very good for all developed countries and regions including Central
European countries.
LATIN AMERICA
Mexico should increase investment to increase per capita consumption
of energy as an indicator of development. It produces oil, but its consumption
level is very low. A strong Latin America means a safe relation with the
USA. The main problem of Latin America is how to afford the energy to meet
public demands. The key is installing the proper infrastructure and skipping
the US’s example as much as possible.
NORTH AMERICA
In the short-term there is need for better grid control to enable more
effective deregulation and distributed power of all sorts and hybrids,
external combustion, and advanced fuel cells to improve oil and gas use.
In the mid-term the low-temperature MHD breakthrough at Princeton MIGHT
be relevant - if the capital costs are acceptable and if quick calculations
fit prior guesses - and where carbon sequestration technologies might be
cheap enough to be justifiable. In the long-term solar power satellites
offer a unique and critical hope that nothing else does.
The US has the greatest per capita consumption of energy.
There are four long-range options to meet the tripling of energy demand by 2050: Fossil fuels (but unacceptable environmental costs), nuclear (waste is unsolved and security problems will grow) alternatives (at best we can get 20% of 2050 requirements). The rest could come from space solar power without greenhouse gas or nuclear waste. Energy can be beamed via microwave from solar cells in orbit or on the moon.
There are three options for the development of space solar power for earth: 1) Build solar satellite elements on the earth, assemble in orbit, and beam energy to earth; 2) Build solar panels on the moon from lunar material and beam energy to earth; and 3) Build solar satellites in orbit from lunar material and beam energy to earth.
President Bush should create a multi-agency team to assess feasibility and economic and environmental cost-benefit of an orbital wireless energy transmission system using terrestrial and a range of space solar power options.
Manifest genius in the development of alternative sources of energy that eliminate or greatly diminish the factors causing pollution and dramatic climate changes.
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) expects natural gas as a source for US electricity to jump from 15% to 60% in just twenty years - but that still gets you CO2 greenhouse gases. The oceans around the US hold immense amounts of methane (the primary component of natural gas) concentrated in cage-like ice structures known as methane hydrates. A single unit of hydrate can release as much as 160 times its volume in gas when heated and depressurized. If only 1% of the methane hydrate resource could be made technically and economically recoverable, the United States could more than double its domestic natural gas resource base.
The US accounts for nearly one-quarter of global carbon dioxide emissions and is doing little to control them. Since 1990-the base year for the Kyoto Protocol-US emissions have grown by an additional 13 percent. In Europe, emissions have only increased by one percent. The growth in the US emissions over the last 10 years equal combined emissions increases in China, India, and Africa—rapidly developing regions that have a population that is more than ten times that of the US.
The U.S. has to consider more seriously the development of alternate energy sources and efficient energy storage and distribution systems. Some examples include: hydrogen-based (fuel cells for central, distributed and mobile energy generation); ethanol; carbon recycling systems; next generation nuclear energy; use of wind-powered systems along coastal regions; development of efficient, solar-powered systems; through partnering with urban planners, government, other industries take a system’s view of mobility and design integrated systems with overall reduced use of energy. Innovative solutions could include new design community planning to reduce the need to travel. This should include integrated and intermodal public/private mobility systems.
The resolution of this issue is of absolutely overriding importance and will increase in importance in the long-term. It is an issue that affects both the United States and the world. But action, if it is taken, must originate in the US.
There are two issues that are troubling. The first is global warming. If global warming turns to be real, the issue will be apparent, immediate, and essential to resolve. However, a scientific debate is still going on. No one is certain whether our climate heating is an aberration, or whether it is natural or man-made. But we should be planning as though the issue is a real and important.
The second issue is the high per capita consumption of energy in the United States and the consequences of vastly higher energy prices, should they occur. Should energy prices rise greatly, as they did at the time of the OPEC embargo, the impact on the US economy would be great. A recession in the US would trigger a worldwide economic crisis. OPEC will constrain supply and raise prices and therefore this kind of crisis will exist within the next eight years.
If the problem of global warming turns out to be as serious as most scientists expect, the impact will be huge. In the United States, for example, people and institutions will have to be moved away from the coast. There are no other man-made solutions that seem to work; we will just have to move. The government will have to take responsibility.
Certainly there are solutions to both aspects on the horizon but there is no impetus for pursuing them, and that's where the real problem lies. Car manufacturers should be concerned about making more efficient cars. But they are locked into their old patterns of behavior. As for greenhouse gasses, we can pump CO2 into wells and improve the recovery of petroleum or sequester the CO2 other ways. One approach is to pump the CO2 into the oceans or underground, but there is no infrastructure for such an undertaking. The UN can be a vital element in solving these problems.
Not only is the US a large consumer of energy, but also is a major source of greenhouse gases. No matter what form the solutions take, new kinds of infrastructure will be required and existing institutions will be made obsolete. Because of the structural changes that are required, change is maddeningly slow. Here is a case where we can actually see a probable future and yet we are not strong enough in our convictions to move ahead vigorously. It's as though we had a time machine and moved forward for 20 years, and came back to the present and said: energy prices and availability are the key. From an energy standpoint we know pretty well what the scenario will be, but who will take the leadership to create new infrastructure? Not Ford, nor Exxon.
The significance of energy to the US lies in the fact that we will of necessity be brought down in energy intensity relative to the rest of the world.
Higher living standards are resulting in continued escalation of energy demands. These demands tend to have a negative impact on the environment and ecology. Efforts to place greater reliance on renewable energy sources and solar energy although noteworthy represent only a very small fraction of energy supplies. Continued escalation of energy demands based on the use of fossil fuels is contributing over the long term to global warming.
The USA is the world's 'energy hog' and must become more efficient (see Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute) and shift to solar, renewables, fuel cells, hydrogen, etc.
North America is particularly selfish and unrealistic about the implications of fossil energy use, at a time when national leadership is increasingly unable to make tough decisions. Nuclear energy is being pushed further off the stage. Fusion energy seems to be a never beginning dream. People do not realize that such things as hydrogen power are only storage (and clean burning) options that depend on some polluting or under-efficient method of "mining."
We have to address CO2 reduction to comply with Kyoto Protocol and other emerging accords; private investment and funding of alternate energy research; government incentives, regulations, and support around alternate energy research; Mobility/accessibility research.
The US should focus on conservation, new technologies, and increasing public awareness. If it does not, then the solution will be a forced drastic reduction in energy use and a drastic increase in cost.
It may be necessary to make costly and unpopular changes to alternatives well before petroleum production peaks. Only 1-3 decades seem to exist to have the conversion well underway in order to avoid serious dislocations while "market forces" have time to adapt. Given the versatility of petroleum for many uses beyond energy, it would seem wise to bank petroleum for future generations at an early time. Seabed clathrates of methane-ice need to be investigated, but environmental consequences of extraction must be given careful consideration. In any case, use of any natural gas does not resolve carbon dioxide in the atmosphere problems and raises the specter of even more methane release. R&D for clean combustion and low energy content agricultural and industry products need attention.
Education is needed to change values in the direction of being satisfied/happy with lower energy content social and intellectual consumption than material consumption. The big gains here would be in moving the industrialized world into a true post-industrial world characterized by happiness defined in terms of psychic rewards.
People are not aware of the extra and increasing burden the Internet is putting on energy production. Some estimate computer use in the US to account for more than half the use of electrical power by 2005.
The human element is missing in most global energy assessments. Once a vested interest gets built up it is very difficult to convince those dependent on the interest to sacrifice for the good of all. Imagine the displacement and turmoil that would occur if there were dramatic shifts to renewables in the developed countries. Without doubt, something has to be started soon along the lines of workshop since changes to the fossil fuel infrastructure and transitioning to a renewable energy economy will be several decades and the inertia of globally polluting systems grows rapidly.
-- Regional Views --
AFRICAAfrica Asia and Oceania Europe Latin America North America
Africa has limited access to technology, new scientific findings, and capacity to take full advantage of developments. Probably many advances will be brought from overseas. However, the production and development should be done here to adapt to African conditions.... Africa also has to mobilize its capacity and reverse the brain drain through improving economic, social, and human rights conditions in the region.
Through developing consciousness, communications among the many different
parties in Africa, and serious self-help efforts Africans can become part
of an integrated global system. Africans need to see more positive images
of science and technology. Hollywood movies should be created that present
positive aspects of scientific and technological advancements, not only
freak shows and thrillers.
ASIA and OCEANIA
The Middle and Near East should increase the level of R&D in technological
development, create national science and technology strategies, and establish
a regional technical and technology development center.
Science and technology (S&T) in Pakistan should focus on the alleviation of misery of the masses, raising the level of wage rates, and sustainable development of society. Pakistan, like many developing countries is backward, but is eager to embrace new technologies.
Having one of the oldest civilizations in the world, China has been behind the West in its economic development since the industrial revolution. One of the most important reasons for this is its underdeveloped science and technology. The breakthrough of science and technology is, therefore, extraordinarily important in China.
Breakthroughs in agriculture are important to feed such a large population. The hybridization of rice is a good example of such breakthroughs; it doubles the production of rice. In very big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, and in coastal regions, the economy developed well, but in the other areas, especially in remote areas, it is still underdeveloped. Scientists and engineers have tried hard to develop these areas, but there is a lack of significant scientific and technological breakthroughs to explore and develop these areas with hard living and natural conditions.
International cooperation in S&T has been and will be in progress for the breakthroughs that are very significant for human progress and civilization.
S&T should improve the economic development and health of the population.
India is adopting the scientific discoveries made in other parts of the world. This has led to failures in improving the human condition, since India does not have its own technology suited to its conditions. When it borrows the technology from other countries often they are outdated, yet it has to pay. This makes India a place for marketing its products rather than improving its own technology. The researchers and the technologists should be encouraged toward innovation in their fields. They have to create their own technology. If technological development takes place in one region, but does not in another, then imbalance will be created. This will lead to economic disequilibrium. The recent trend is that the cheap labor is being utilized but the technology is not being imported or given out by the MNCs. They just assemble the products in India. Special significance arises out of the need to bridge the capabilities with the demands. India has a high level of scientific manpower. Our potential that has remained has been directed mostly towards the problems of the upper class of society and economy. Issues such as poverty, malnutrition, overpopulation, unsanitary condition, communicable disease, which affect vast number of people have not attracted commensurate interest from the scientists, technologists, and their organizations.
S&T should be directed toward the larger masses of population and address problems for which solutions have to be found locally and cannot be imported. This is an area where a considerable scope exists for synergy in scientific and technological activity in different parts of the region and the world. This could produce a positive effect. However, if scientific and technological knowledge is interpreted in pure commercial or political terms, difficulties will arise.
The Korean government's policy for promoting science and technology still lacks critical vision for “quality of life”. There is discordance between the public's increasing awareness for better standards of living and Korea's 'market-oriented' science and technology policy. The South Korean Agricultural Minister has announced consideration of the adoption of a plan to separate the import of GM cereals from non-GM cereals in conformity with the law about labeling that will come into force in March 2001. However, during a public assembly the industry pushed for the separation of the imports at least within the beginning of next year. In Thailand twenty groups of consumers joined to fight GM foods. Thai Therapos Food Products Ltd. will purchase oil of soya from India and China and not from North America to avoid problems with consumers worried about effects of OGM foods.
Introduction of GM crop varieties is given greater consideration in India and China.
Robots build 50% of Japanese high-rise buildings. Japanese life expectancy is the longest in the world. We should establish a worldwide cooperation system consisting of international partnerships among different nations linking government institutions, universities, and private sectors to focus S&T on breakthroughs for the selected unsolved problems.
Within the South Pacific region, many of the governments are pursuing economic rationalist models in which the market place will determine the need for science and technology. The likelihood of scientific and technological breakthroughs will thus be diminished because strategic research is being neglected in favor of applied research directed at specific problems.
The 21st century is going to be the century of the environment, at least in the early decades. In the 20th century humans have been against the environment, particularly in the last 3-5 decades (the industrial revolution). Before that, humanity was part of the environment. In the 21st century, humanity is in charge and responsible for the environment. The direct effect of the environmental degradation is increasingly seen globally. For instance, the Caspian Sea is of great concern both locally and globally, due to the uniqueness of this sea. Considering the extent of the Iranian shoreline, other countries’ activities will have direct and considerable effect on Iran. Petroleum pollution is going to be the major problem for the Caspian Sea.
Because the Persian Gulf is an important place for supplying energy to the world, few have cared about the local environmental impacts. Some believe that the environmental impacts not reversible.
There is an overdependence on finding technological fixes for social and environmental problems. Materialism and profit incentives should be subordinate to morals and social welfare motives. Goals should be constructive and collective. There is need to develop new cultural and personal images of well being, and identify what really brings satisfaction.
ASEAN can do with more transfer of energy-efficient and clean technologies from advanced countries. It can also learn the lessons and avoid the mistakes of urban and industrial transformations from the West. It should enhance investment, institutional reform, international cooperation in the area of science and technology; encourage research & development supported by enterprises, privatizing research institutes, favorable policy-making to S&T breakthrough, value change of the role of scientists and technicians; enhance education and popularization of scientific knowledge in communities.
Create national and international "Improvement Infrastructure(s)" by
adopting the "Bootstrap" strategy [as proposed by Doug Engelbart, within
which a focus on "improving on improvement strategies" is an integral part
www.bootstrap.org]. Take advantage of information technology
to improve both educational technology and accessibility to education.
EUROPE
Europe has been one of the global centers of invention since at least
the Renaissance. It should continue to be so.... European thinking is quite
social already and less business-minded compared to the US. Perhaps there
is too much focus on spending money on new knowledge, rather than focusing
on applying existing knowledge.
The mapping of the human genome may be a conceptual breakthrough compared to the Periodic Table.
To develop knowledge in its wholeness and complexity, we need to balance between advances in the natural and technical sciences on the one hand, and the social sciences and the humanities, on the other. This is a precondition to providing perspective and triggering a new pioneering spirit, which was typical at the turn of the last century and to motivating young people to be innovative for its own sake.
This is also a precondition to streamlining innovativeness toward sustainable development. These are problems that should preoccupy Europe, though in Europe mainly selected mainstream research and development activities are in the center.
Foster transparence, permeability, and how we access, share, accommodate, and ferment knowledge and wisdom support. Also, the region has the needed depth and cultural/historic diversity to not go onto the one and only solution/model.
To make sure science and technology are in the interest of humanity, we should expose more members of the scientific and engineering community to formal measures of public accountability. This would provide a clearer focus for research on methods for addressing basic human needs - clean air and water, healthy food and agriculture, sustainable shelter, transport, and other services - particularly health care and education. We should encourage the emergence of technology foresight programs with a capacity to relate their findings to the public.
The development of information technology is on a high level. The crucial question is if it is created to serve the majority of humankind or the exploitation of the majority by the minority. Technological innovations in the field of sustainable use of natural resources, biotechnology, and biological agriculture have the potential to serve globally.
New programs and centers to improve the public understanding of science and technology should be created, and more stimulus/incentives to invention and greater resources should be provided for innovators in all fields.
The problem seems not to accelerate innovation (more often perhaps to slow down innovative cycles), but rather to select which sorts of innovation serve the common good. Those innovations that do serve humanity deserve acceleration. There is too much competitive pressure on new products that reinforce commercialism rather than 'quality' issues. Ethical investment values, incomes and criteria should be developed in allocating resources to technological innovations.
The European Community has formally approved a Communitary rule compelling all manufacturing companies to prove that their raw materials come from non-GM stocks and to assure that possible accidental contamination of any component is not above 1%. Producers shall label their products as GM if they cannot respect the rule. In May of 1999, Europe's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, recommended that investors sell all holdings in companies involved in genetic engineering, declaring that "GMO's Are Dead." The bank's report envisioned the development of a two-tiered commodity market in which non-transgenic crops would command price premiums over transgenic crops - a prospect that threatens the farmers planting engineered seeds and the companies that sell these seeds, notes a Worldwatch Institute report.
Although Russian R&D expenditures decreased substantially in 1990s, a surprising amount of scientific breakthroughs occurred during this period. A special federal foundation for supporting basic research was established in 1993 and has been effective, but Russia has problems with technology transfer, diffusion, and implementation. As a result of trade liberalization foreign technology came to Russia and suppressed some industries and R&D systems. After default the situation changed for better. Demand on the national investment and consumer goods has increased. For instance, the industry output growth was 8% in 1999. Private sectors’ financial opportunities improved and demand on R&D and technological innovations has increased.
The Russian Ministry of Industry Science and Technology included development of information technology, National Innovation System infrastructure in the priorities of S&T policy already at the beginning of 90s (in crises). New institutions for technology transfer were set up in framework of special Federal program of innovation infrastructure development. Now 40 technology transfer institutions are working. There are 85 technoparks in Russia and about 50 business incubators. The federal and municipal authorities support these institutions. Technology transfer centers in Russia play a special role because of the concentration of Russian Academy of Science institutions, which produce basic innovations, in some large cities. As a result of implementation of innovations, developed by the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia increased high- tech export during the last 5 years or so as well as middle-tech products export. But many scientific opportunities are not used yet to improve the competitiveness of national industry and agriculture. Lack of venture capital is a problem. The European bank of reconstruction and development established fifteen venture funds. This year the Ministry of Industry, Science and Technology established a state Venture Fund with regional offices to contribute to the commercialization of high tech innovations.
Actions suggested in this science and technology section of the State of the Future should be put on the national agenda of Russia.
In Central and Eastern Europe, with obsolete technologies, there is need for scientific and technology know-how transfer. The research, university, education, and mutual exchange of ideas and scientific information should be supported. There is also a lack of strategic planning. We have reduced subsidies to the sciences, and reduced respect for the sciences, and our orientation toward the sciences is too narrow.
Development of information society, digital economy, Internet, e-commerce, etc. should be supported. The state does not have enough resources any more and the private sector does not have the capabilities or the interest to replace them.
There are several tasks that should be tackled: fight against bureaucracy, parochialism and nationalism, which affect the scientific and technological developments, promote creativity among youth, and more emphasis on proper relationship in work in a moral and ethical framework that streamlines innovations toward the improvement of human condition.
We need to improve the educational and information systems, and knowledge of the English language. Cooperation has to be increased among scientists, governments, industry and politicians, and stimulate political will, economic reforms, and investment in science and applied research.
There is need for innovation strategies, technological assessment, holistic
approach to S&T applications, and better scientific 'training' and
motivation of scientists as well as public support. Ethical parameters
and rules are also very important. The abuse of scientific and technological
knowledge by one group against another was one of the main reasons of the
decline and the degeneration of societies and civilizations; hence, this
challenge should be connected to the Challenge 15 on Global Ethics.
LATIN AMERICA
Biotechnology will feed people, cure diseases, and eliminate malnutrition
of children - vital for the future and culture of the region.
In Mexico the greatest tortillas factory declared it will not buy anymore
genetically modified corn, and Brazil has recently eliminated its genetically
modified soy by replacing them with traditional soy, so as to become the
world supplier of non- genetically modified products.
NORTH AMERICA
The US President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology
(PCAST) “Letter to the President Jan 12, 2001” remarks, “the widening gap
between the wealthy and poorer nations inhibits progress and aggravates
tensions. This impacts not only the quality of life in these societies,
but also their political stability.” Therefore, the letter recommends,
“that science and technology in international development be assigned a
higher priority in the US Government. Such a strategic effort would advance
our policy and economic goals, promote global sustainable development and
greater stability and security.” (Executive office of the President, President’s
Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, Washington, D.C. 20502
January 12, 2001; http://www.ostp.gov/PCAST/pcastdocs93_2000.html)
"Constructive" Technology Assessment that engages a spectrum of interests with the researchers prior to technological applications merits experimentation. We need to widen our perspective to bring together scientists and technologists with other stakeholders to promote, not narrowly construed technical advance, but broadly considered socio-technological innovation. Wise management of technology should be pursued.
A unique significance for the region is the wealth of innovative and intellectual capacity. Money is available through grants, government, foundations, etc. to fund public (academia, government), private, and partnered research.
For 30 years solar energy conversion on Earth and in space has been of considerable interest with important results for this field. North America has the capital to support the research and utilize the results of such research.
In the US there is need to 'digest' un-assessed technologies, not accelerate them. Social innovation to adapt to human development goals is needed.
The region is one of the main producers of knowledge and technology. Unfortunately, people will irrationally gamble on lotteries and illegal gambling, but want absolutely sure bets when it comes to scientific results. Research investments have been declining. Defense research has been the greatest stimulus for new breakthroughs, but recently it has been declining. However, there is a fair amount of science education.
Our central focus is to use these breakthroughs as a positive incentive for business investment and to induce a climate of regulatory flexibility. Also, we focus on "technology sharing" - the developing world cannot be competitively disadvantaged (Please note the word "sharing" not "transfer.")
In the United States, Argentina, and Canada, over half the acreage for major commodities like soybeans, corn, and canola are planted in transgenics, says a Worldwatch Institute report. These three nations account for 99 percent of the global transgenic acreage, pointing to the limited global acceptance. However, the debate on the GMO is more and more acute. The most Important US suppliers of natural foods declared they will ban genetically manipulated components from their hundreds of products privately labeled. With a growing number of food manufacturers and grocery chains in Europe refusing products containing transgenics, the market for these crops has been shrinking. American exports of soybeans to the European Union plummeted from 11 million tons in 1998 to 6 million tons last year, while American corn shipped to Europe dropped from 2 million tons in 1998 to 137,000 tons last year: a combined loss of nearly one billion dollars in sales for American agriculture, notes the same Worldwatch report. After discussions on the matter promoted by the Food and Drug Administration, two US senators have proposed an immediate labeling not only for foods that have suffered an industrialized process, but also for seeds.
Most inhabitants of Montreal, Canada are in favor of the labeling of GMO foods and almost half of them think GMOs should be banned. Two thirds of the population seems to refuse to eat GMO foods.
There is need to find more and better ways to partner and collaborate on research, to expand scientific research, and a higher quality public education.
Educational Institutions and industry are focusing on the technical, economic, social and public acceptance issues pertaining to solar energy conversion. This region is a key resource for the development of solar energy applications (MIT, U. Mass, BU, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., Raytheon and others.)
Leaders and the public alike should be educated to appreciate and revere science, not just to consider it cute mystical stuff that people demonstrate on television popular science shows. Technological development should be a competitive "sport" internally and internationally in order to generate the kind of excitement that produced phenomenal discoveries and lightning speed developments during WWII and the Cold War, but without the destructive component. We should invest more in some bold developments and focus on free and open dissemination of information.
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